There's a great scene in "The Office" when Michael (Steve Carell) wonders why the boy scouts won't be at the company's charity function.  Toby, the corporate HR rep, goes on to basicaly say "Well it's a school night, it's in our dangerous warehouse, there's gambling, it's being catered by Hooters, do you need any more...."  "Shut up Toby!"

I feel like Toby because Dana Jacobsen (BTW will the 1 pm slot ever be filled on ESPN Radio) gave a quick summary of the NFL contenders.  It's a tease for the rest of the show.  She went through San Diego.  I'm okay with that.  Then she said why she believes they are a contender.  "Is there any reason to believe that LT won't have a similar year, OR EVEN BETTER?"

Well there's a tool in statistical analysis where probabilities are assigned based upon certain criteria.  Those probabilities are added to the prior year's stats (+10% for breaking out), or subtracted if the criteria warrant it (-10% likely regression, -20% likely collapse).  So LT could be better, says Ms Jacobsen.  Well why not?

*He's a running back.  They have long shelf lives (rolling eye smiley face goes here)

*He's closer to 30 than 20, which isn't that big of a deal.

Based upon that, he's likely in for a 10 percent decrease in production.  But there's also (use your Toby voice for full effect):

*A new O coordinator

*Norv Turner is his head coach.  He gets very conservative in the red zone.

*Philip Rivers is more polished than last year

*The first place schedule

*He had like the best year ever in the history of the NFL last year

Do you need any more, or shall I go on?