As a subscriber to some SABR theories, I am called all sorts of nasty things. People lob all sorts of allegations at me. "If you actually watched baseball games..." "Baseball is played on the field..." "You are sheep..."
The first of the bunch is funny. Why would anyone spend any length of time on something they didn't enjoy? The latter is infuriating. What is sheepish about questionning 100+ years of baseball thinking? The sac bunt is the sheep play. There, I said it. The "by the book logic" is what I question. I'm not always right, but it's worth asking the questions.
As proof of my non-sheepness, I give you my MLB manager rankings. Why managers? Well, this is where I differ from the SABR crowd. Many have minimized the role of the manager. Many decisions are similar across the board. Some are day to day matters, and managers manager them differently. It is with that where I say that there is some importance in the role of the manager. The argin for error is small.
The criteria: I factor in stolen base percentage, runs per baserunner, sacrifice rates, intentional walk rates, save percentages, and the excess of victories over quality starts (thus keeping a manager with a top heavy rotation from cruising to the top ten). How you manage your bullpen counts - big time. The rates have been recentered and added to come up with a score.
For those who scoff, I only do this at the break. That way you can't say "Well it's easy to..." Fill in whatever excuse you may use to down me. Also, last year's top manager was Charlie Manuel. Philly fans scoffed. They were right. The team didn't do much until winning four of its last five games.
1. Ron Washington - Rangers - 1.350: Last year when I did this analysis, Washington was tenth. I thought, "Hmmm. That's odd for a losing team." Pitching has been the bane of this team's existence. Washington, at the urging of Nolan Ryan, has not bowed down to pitch counts. The team's save percentage is solid.
2. Joe Girardi - Yankees - 1.278: Thank Phil Coke and Mariano Rivera. The lineup here is hard to mismanage since it's easy to say with men on base, "hit the ball over the right field fence."
3. Joe Maddon - Rays - 1.209: Could be number one if they made fewer outs on the basepaths. Stretching hits is admirable...to a degree.
4. Terry Francona - Red Sox - 1.147: A fixture in the top 5.
5. Tony LaRussa - Cardinals - 1.128: It helps to have the best hitter in the game.
6. Mike Scioscia - Angels - 1.094: I can't say that I'm a huge K-rod fan. Many of his saves were the "Ugeth Urbina" type (2 runs with high WHIP). Losing your closer, and still being in the top 10? Doing a heckuva job Mikey.
7. Charlie Manuel - Phillies - 1.089: Brad Lidge has not been perfect this year. But the team still scores runs, in no small part to Charlie pressing the steal buttona t the right times.
8. Dusty Baker - Reds - 1.027: I'm not a Dusty Baker guy. He's one of those good enough not to get fired guys. The staff has been managed well. The offense has good components, but patient hitters have been Bakerized.
9. Ron Gardenhire - Twins - 1.002: Solid but not spectacular performance.
10. Joe Torre - Dodgers - .9995: Joe Torre is in love with the intentional walk and the bunt. Torre has managed the bullpen well with 18 more wins than quality starts. Will the innings catch up with the Dodgers, considering the Giants rotation through the first half?
11. Jim Tracy - Rockies - .9960: Clint who?
12. Bruce Bochy - Giants - .9416: A good example of the criteria not allowing a manager to ride Lincecum and Cain to the top. Good first half, and a threat for the NL West title.
13. Dave Trembley - Orioles - .9275: This team makes too many outs on the basepaths. The starters don't go far, so Trembley has more opportunities to ride the bullpen to victories.
14. Don Wakamatsu - Mariners - .9250: The team doesn't score many runs, but isn't the most inefficient bunch either. Perhaps it would help matters in Seattle to pick up a good SLG guy.
15. John Russell - Pirates - .9108: You would think that the manager of the Pirates is ranked a bit high for being the manager of the Pirates. What if I said this team has frittered nine quality starts? He could be higher!
The rest:
| White Sox | .908306 |
| NYM | .905523 |
| Florida | .896891 |
| Oakland | .895372 |
| Toronto | .877284 |
| Detroit | .876656 |
| Milwaukee | .863078 |
| KC | .854334 |
| Cleveland | .840598 |
| Arizona | .772475 |
| Atlanta | .767303 |
| Houston | .766818 |
| SD | .766131 |
| Cubs | .591617 |
| Washington | .512399 |
29. Lou Piniella - Cubs - .5916: 12 frittered quality starts. Too many outs on the basepaths. And too many outs given away for a team that should be near the top in SLG. They say the act wears thin after a while. Is it a while yet?
30. Manny Acta - Nationals - .5124: There is no button that Manny can push to become a top manager, given the roster. That said, it took a while for people to realize that Joel Hanrahan can't play. And it took a while to drop Guzman in the line-up, knowing he simply doesn't draw walks. Manny is a good guy, but his actions seem to run contrary to the principles he brought to DC. He should get a chance with a middle of the road team to see what he can do.
All Star
I am still unsure exactly how you came up with the numbers but I would be very interested in finding this out. If you could guide me. If I were to list the top 5 Managers in the league, Joe Maddon would definately be number 1. Funny too because after the break the Rays came out hot. Terry Francona would definately be number 2. After that I would have a hard time figuring out the rest. I am curious, did you just use the stats for the entire rockies season or just from the point that Tracy took over, because since they have been on fire.
amarant0011:02 PM EST