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Tackling some draft day issues and other analysis
Saturday, March 24, 2007, 9:15 AM
[General]
Make what you will of all the recent trades and "big" free agent signings (if you count signing underachieving offensive linesmen to millions of dollars) around the league but when it comes to the highlight of off-season, nothing quite beats out the buzz generated by the NFL draft.
By now you've probably already gone over the countless mock drafts on the internet, carefully scrutinized each NFL prospect's performance at the combine and heard all the rumors coming from each team's individual "War rooms". However, like almost any draft, there remains a glut of intriguing storylines and issues that need to be addressed. Starting from the top; Who do the Oakland Raiders draft at number one overall? This pick almost seems like a no brainer because the big quarterback out of LSU, Jamarcus Russell, fits perfectly into the Raider's offensive system and has the best upside (not to mention the strongest arm) out of the quarterbacks in this year's draft class. However as of late the word out of Oakland is that Al Davis (along with the rest of the NFL) is infatuated with the prospect of drafting talented Georgia Tech reciever, Calvin Johnson, given the fact that former Houston Texan quarterback, David Carr is available to address Oakland's quarterback needs. At the end of the day however, an offense is usually only as good as it's quarterback and I find it difficult to imagine Carr experiencing success behind the Oakland offensive line. Look for the Raiders to draft Russell who has the perfect blend of size and talent required to succeed in the NFL. If Calvin Johnson somehow "slips" to the second spot, does he then get taken by the Detroit Lions? While the general concensus around the league is that Matt Millen is hesitant to draft another big name reciever in the first round and that the Lions need to find a successor to Jon Kitna, I would not be surprised if Millen picked Johnson over Brady Quinn or Joe Thomas. While Kitna is certainly not the long term answer in Detroit, he was effective all of last season and adding Johnson would provide the Lions with the explosive offense required to propell them back into the playoffs. As for drafting their quarterback of the future, Michigan State quarterback, Drew Stanton, or Houston's, Kevin Kolb would make the most sense in the later rounds of the draft. Where do the "sliders" - Brady Quinn, Adrian Peterson and Troy Smith end up? Much has been speculated on where Brady Quinn, once considered a lock at the top pick, will end up. As for being this year's Matt Leinart, I can't see Quinn falling past the Cleveland Browns at the third spot. Quinn wants to play for Romeo Crennel and from what I'm told, Cleveland isn't exactly sold on Charlie Frye being their starting quarterback. On the other hand, should Sooners running back, Adrian Peterson, slide out of the top 10 (which is highly likely given no one in that category is in need of a franchise running back), does he then end up in Buffalo? While there is no questioning Peterson's immense talent, his durability has often been questioned and at this point it isn't inconcievable that the Bills could then draft Cal running back, Marshawn Lynch (who is believe will be a better pro proprospect, simply because of his versatility) however I don't see Peterson dropping past Green Bay at the sixteenth pick. Finally, Troy Smith, once believed to be a top 10 pick, appears to have fallen out of the first, and possibily even the second round. A poor showing at the combine following the national title game hurt his stock tremendously and while he possesses great intangibles, his height (5'11) will ultimately prevent him from going early. Who is the... Sleeper pick in the later rounds of the draft who could rise to stardom in the NFL? RB Michael Bush, Louisville: has the potential to be a pro bowl player in the NFL and would have been a sure fire top 20 pick has injuries not prematurely ended his senior season in college. And while he projects to be selected in the second or third round, Bush, who reminds me alot of Jamaal Lewis, certainly has first round talent. Most overrated player in this year's class? CB Leon Hall, Michigan: While there is no disputing Hall as one of the top corners in this year's draft, he isn't the bona fide super star many have made him out to be. Losses to Ohio State and USC are proof of that, where Hall was repeated burned by Buckeye and Trojan recievers while showing a disturbing lack of foot speed. Impressive showings during work outs have him being a top 10 pick however I do not think he will be an impact player at the next level. The second best receiver behind Calvin Johnson? WR Dwayne Jarrett, USC: This year's draft features alot of depth at the receiving position and while some may argue that this title belongs to Ted Ginn, Jr or Robert Meachem, Jarrett is a big time player who can come through in the clutch (USC-ND '06) while having the size to leap over opposing corners. And despite what many think, Jarrett has deceptive quickness that will allow him to be more than just a one demensional possession receiver in the NFL. Projected Top 10 Picks of the 2007 NFL Draft 1. Oakland: QB JaMarcus Russell, LSU - Russell has the arm strength that Al Davis covets and the Raiders have a glaring need at the quarterback position. 2. Detroit: WR Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech - Johnson is the closest thing to a sure fire super star in this year's draft and figures to thrive in offensive coordinator, Mike Martz's vertical passing system. 3. Cleveland: QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame - Quinn is the most polished quarterback in this year's draft although there is a possibility the Browns could draft OT Joe Thomas at this spot. 4. Tampa Bay: DE Gaines Adams, Clemson - Easily the best defensive end in the draft, Adams would be a welcome addition to the Bucs newly reconstructed defense. 5. Arizona: OT Joe Thomas, Wisconsin - The Cardinals have the talent at their skill positions on offense. What they need is someone to protect quarterback, Matt Leinart. 6. Washington: FS LaRon Landry, LSU - With Troy Vincent and Adam Archuleta gone, Landry's versatility is the perfect compliment to Gregg Williams' defense. 7. Minnesota: CB Leon Hall, Minnesota - Hall gives the Vikings some depth in their secondary and figures to replace Fred Smoot. 8. Houston: RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma - Forget about the Ahman Green signing, the guy is 30 years old (ancient by NFL standards) and the Texans will need their franchise running back of the future. OT Levi Brown of Penn State is also a possibility. 9. Miami: DT Amboi Okoye, Louisville - One of the more intersting picks in my opinion, youth is served with the 19 year old pass rusher. 10. Atlanta: DE Adam Carriker, Nebraska - The former Cornhusker is drafted to replace Patrick Kerney. Look for them to draft LaRon Landry if he's still on the board.
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Jags are Number One in Florida
Tuesday, September 19, 2006, 2:57 AM
[General]
Let me be the first to say this: Before Monday night's game, I had no idea who the Jacksonville Jaguars were.
Ok, maybe I'm exaggerating a little bit, but the fact of the matter is, before they shut out the defending Super Bowl champions, before they beat "America's team", in the Dallas Cowboys, the Jaguars had always been taken to a grain of salt.
Now remember, this was a team that went 12-4 last year, yet failed to crack the top 5 of anyone's preseason power rankings. Many attributed the team's record to a weak schedule. "The Jags aren't going to be sneaking up on anyone this year", was the consensus around the league, and yet despite all the talk, Jacksonville has somehow managed to fly under the radar again - Until now, that is.
In methodically dismantling and emphatically shutting out the defending world champion Steelers on a nationally televised stage, the Jaguars have made the message pretty clear: we are the team to beat. And as absurd as it may sound, I actually agree with that statement. Yes, it's only week 2 and we can't be quick to judge, but these Jaguars look like Super Bowl contenders. Don't laugh, aside from Chicago and Baltimore, no other team has looked more dominant in the first two weeks. (I'm discounting San Diego from that list for now, because they haven't proved anything to us except for the ability to beat lower tier teams.)
It's a shut out: Big Ben's return was an unpleasant one after being swallowed by an extremely physical Jags defense. For the Jaguars to have initially been held in such a low regard by the nation now seems like lunacy. This was a team that made the AFC championship game in only its second year as a franchise and has been a model of consistency throughout the years. Appropriately, Jags Quarter back, Byron Leftwich seems to epitomize the team as a whole, being one of the more underrated signal callers in the league. However on Monday night, Leftwich displayed his ability to throw, not only with power but with great touch and accuracy as well. And while his numbers were not exactly fantasy- worthy, they were enough to get the job done.
Dethroned? After Monday Night's game, it was the Jaguars - not the Steelers, who looked like World Champion Material. Looking at Jacksonville's schedule, many thought there was a good chance this team could have started the season 0-4 and for good reason. The Jags schedule in the first month is absolutely brutal. After Dallas and Pittsburgh, they head to Indianapolis and then to Washington for two tough road games. Right now, it is looking increasingly likely that they could end the first month going 3-1. Playing in Florida isn't easy, especially when you play in the shadow of the Dolphins, however if the Jags keep this up, they just might be able to claim bragging rights from their two other in-state rivals. (Tampa Bay included)
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Who Ya Got? - Lex's Week 2 NFL Picks
Wednesday, September 13, 2006, 11:53 PM
[General]
Defense Rules? Not this week. Defense was a running theme in week one of the NFL, with 3 teams getting shut out - the most in the NFL's opening week history. Other potential offensive juggernauts such as Carolina and Seattle looked uncharacteristic in scoring point totals of 6 and 9 respectively. However in shaking off the rust many teams are looking to bounce back in a big way. If you are expecting another week of teams dominating with defense, dont count on it. Now on to the picks: Buffalo Bills (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (0-1) - Expect the Bills to keep the game close for the second week in a row but I am not ready to write off Daunte Culpepper just yet. Home field advantage will be the difference maker in this one. Dolphins 24, Bills 21
Carolina Panthers (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0) - Mabye it's me but without Steve Smith, Dan Morgan and Travelle Wharton, these Panthers are going to have a tough time fufilling those Super Bowl expectations. And I still dont trust Jake Delhomme in big games. Vikings 24, Panthers 13
Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) - Kellen Winslow Jr looked impressive in catching his first TD pass against the Saints last week and the Browns have sufficent fire power to challenge the Bengal's "improved" defense. That being said however, I fully expect Cincy to come out on top. Bengals 34, Browns 21
Detroit Lions (0-1) at Chicago Bears (1-0) - Does it really matter if the Bears are being quarterbacked by Rex Grossman or Brian Griese? Jon Kitna, meet Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Tommy Harris. 'Nuff said. Bears 17, Lions 9
Houston Texans (0-1) at Indianapolis Colts (1-0) - This game will be closer than many think. The Colts inability to stop the run will make Houston's ground game look good. The Texan's secondary will make Peyton Manning look like a god. Colts 31, Texans 24 New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1) - Can we just accept the fact that Reggie Bush is better than Mario Williams and move on? Sheesh. Saints 17, Packers 10
New York Giants (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) - How tough does the NFC East look? This game ties Redskins and 'Boys for game of the week. Tom Coughlin knows how big this is for his team's playoff hopes. At the end of the day the Giants want it just a little bit more than the Eagles. Giants 21, Eagles 16
Oakland Raiders (0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0) - Avert your eyes, Raider Fans. This game is not going to be pretty. Ravens 24, Raiders 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-0) - After being shut out at home for the first time in franchise history, the Bucs have no where to go but up. Inexperience at the Quarterback position will be costly though. Falcons 14, Buccaneers 7
Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0) - Kurt Warner seems to be playing pretty well for a "washed up old dude". Defensively however, the Cards dont look like they can keep up with Seattle's explosive offense. Fearless prediction: Shaun Alexander has his best game of the season. Seahawks 38, Cardinals 24 St Louis Rams (1-0) at San Fransisco 49ers (0-1) - Dare I say the 49er's offense looks good? However fact of the matter is, in this new millennium they still are the 49ers and that has to count for something. The good news is they are playing the Rams. 49ers 27, Rams 21
Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (0-1) - It's that time of the year again where the Chiefs go into Invesco Mile High and lose. With no Trent Green and no offensive line, the odds are stacked immeasurably in the Broncos favor. Good luck, LJ. Broncos 14, Chiefs 6
New England Patriots (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0) - I like the Jets, alot. New England looked shaky last week and you cant ignore the Pat's situation at WR. Am I picking against Brady and Belichick, you ask? You bet. Jets in an upset. Jets 21, Patriots 10
Tennessee Titans (0-1) at San Deigo Chargers (1-0) - Remember the days when the Titans used to own the league's number one run defense? Well, those days are over. Chargers 31, Titans 7
Washington Redskins (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1) - Hey, Dan Snyder, there are starving kids in Africa who could have used that money. Dallas 21, Redskins 16
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) - Big Ben is going to have a tough time shaking off the rust against this Jacksonville defense. The running game looks improved however, and you cant count out the defense. I know better than to pick against the defending world champs. Steelers 17, Jaguars 14
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