I recently have posted some criticisms of Steve Henderson, the Tampa Bay Rays hitting coach. The frustration of watching Rays hitters strike out at a rate that would be embarrassing if it weren't for the Rangers has taken its toll on me. I have grown weary of watching Rays at the plate take call 3rd strikes when there are men in scoring position. Hasn't anybody coached them on defensive hitting or hitting with two strikes? But of course, you can't blame the players because they are winning more than they are losing; so it must be the coach.

A week or so ago, the Seattle Mariners fired their hitting coach (Jeff Pentland) and replaced him with 71 year old Lee Elia. Now I don't know anything at all about Jeff Pentland and only a bit little more about Lee Elia. Elia was a coach with the Devil Rays for a little while and who could ever forget his meltdown as the Cubs manager in 1983. I started to wonder what Elia could bring to the table that Pentland couldn't. The conclusion I came up with was that I am just a fan; what the heck do I know about being a hitting coach in Major League Baseball. Nothing, except that if the team is hitting well, the coach is doing a good job and if they are not, he sucks.

So the next step was to look at all the hitting coaches in baseball and try to find out what makes them effective or not. Because of my basic lazy nature I only looked at the American league (they only have 14 teams). I was quite surprised at what I found.

Of the 14 hitting coaches in the American League, only 6 have had any Major League playing experience (and that includes Elia). Five of the coaches had significant time and some success in the big leagues (Steve Henderson; Rays, Dave Magadon; Red Sox, Terry Crowley; Orioles, Greg Walker; White Sox and Mickey Hatcher; Angels) . Eight of the coaches had no big league experience at all (Lloyd McClendon; Tigers, Kevin Long; Yankees, Derek Shelton; Indians, Rudy Jamarillo; Rangers, Ty VanBurkles; Athletics, Gary Denbo; Blue Jays, Mike Barnett; Royals and Joe Vavra; Twins). Elia played for parts of two seasons and has a total of 212 Major League at bats.

Those that did play averaged 205 ABs per year, 57 hits per year, 4 HRs per year and 26 RBIs per year. The career batting average for all these players is a modest .278. The conclusion I drew from that research is that it is not necessary to have played the game at a high level to be an effective hitting coach. But what makes an effective hitting coach?

I have narrowed it down to two primary skills and a personality trait. An eye for detail and the ability to communicate effectively are the skills; and the need to feed the family and pay the mortgage without having to get a "real" job is the personality trait. Lest why else would these guys expose themselves to young millionaires who have egos as big as their wallets. I remember Larry Rothschild once said about Jesus Colome; "I can't teach him anything if he doesn't want to learn". It must be the same with hitting coaches.

George Bernard Shaw once said, "He who can, does. He who cannot, teaches". Vince Lombardi once said, "Coaches who can outline plays on a blackboard are a dime a dozen. The ones who win, get inside their players and motivate".

Summation: After a lot of research, I have come up with no definitive conclusion as to what makes a good hitting coach. Unfortunately for you, I have invested too much time on this not to put it down on paper. If you have any thoughts on this please don't hesitate to share them.

I have been the guy. Up to this point, it has been pretty much only me. Oh, there have been two or three others who have posted very eloquently on the subject and others who have made reference to it in their blogs. But I am the one who has posted consistently since spring training about the emergence of the Tampa Bay Rays as a power in the American League this year.

I'll admit it; I got caught up in the fantasy of the whole thing watching the Rays' work outs at the Naimoli complex during the spring. There was something there that hadn't been there before. I was convinced that this year's edition of the Rays was finally going to have a winning season for the first time in the history of the franchise. I even predicted in an earlier blog that they would win 88 games this year and would compete for a wild card spot. I went as far as to compare them to the Cardiac Kids of the 1967 Boston Red Sox. But now the bubble has burst. What I have been witnessing in the last two games at Fenway Park (and the previous 19 games) has convinced me that this team does not have what it takes to make a serious run at the playoffs this year. 

I will try to elaborate my feeling on the subject.

1.  The team does not have a legitimate star on offense that can carry the team during the bad times. It does not have a Yaz as the '67 Sox did. It does not have a Fred Lynn or Jim Rice as the '75 Sox did. It does not have a Paul Konerko as the '05 White Sox had. It does not have an Albert Pujols as the '06 Cardinals had. It does not have a Garret Anderson or a Troy Glaus as the '02 Angels had. It does not have a Chipper Jones that the '99 Braves had. I could go on but you get the point.
2. The closest thing this team has to a star is B.J. Upton but he will be lucky to hit 20 homers this year and doesn't seem to have matured enough to be the leader on the field. The impression he leaves me with is that it is all about him and his next contract. Don't get me wrong, he is an outstanding center fielder and will hit around .300. He will steal a bunch of bases and have a bunch of RBIs batting from the 3 spot. He can make a game exciting but I don't see him stepping up to be the "man".
3. Carl Crawford is generally considered to be the best player on the team but that was when he was being compared to the Rays lineups of old. He actually is an enigma. He is as fast as the wind but he has never been successful as a leadoff hitter. He can't do the things necessary to make him a good #2 hitter. He can't bunt. He strikes out too much. He is not a reliable hit and run guy. When he had the opportunity to bat 3rd in the order, he tried to become "Albert Pujols". All the things he could do well suffered and his production numbers did not justify batting him in the three spot. Where do you hit him to get the most out of his abilities?
4. The team does not have a right fielder. Gabe Gross is defensively as good as there is in the league but he can't hit. Eric Hinske hits well enough but he has limited range and a limited arm in the field. Jonny Gomes maybe the nicest guy in the league and the teams best cheerleader but he doesn't even belong on the roster.
5. Carlos Pena has not been producing as a clean-up hitter should produce. I believe that he will snap out of it but in the meantime he is hurting the team batting 4th. I was watching the game on Monday night when he got hit in the hand by a pitch. When he came to bat after that incident, he did not have the first two fingers of his left hand on the bat and he hit a homer. Pena has a swing that is reminiscent of Pete Incaviglia; a pronounced uppercut. Inky hit a lot of homers but he struck out more than anyone else in the league when he played regularly. That kind of swing requires that all the mechanics have to be perfect to bring success. Pena's top hand has been too strong all year and as a result he hasn't been driving the ball. Joe Magraine commented on the same thing and he was a pitcher, what does he know?
6. Jason Bartlett is being wasted in the 9th spot. He has all the tools to become a great #2 hitter. He can bunt, he can hit the ball to the right side and he has good speed. He will eventually hit close to .300. His strikeouts (which are not a huge amount) will be reduced when he exhibits the disciplines necessary to hit in the 2 hole.
7. Joe Maddon shows about as much imagination in managing a game on the field as David Archuletta did on American Idol in trying to translate a nice song into something entertaining. He babies the bullpen to a point of losing games. He warms up people too late and they are not ready when they are needed. He will stick with his starters too long to try and save his bullpen. What difference does it make when you lose? If Jackson and Sonny don't show a marked improvement in their next starts, is it not the right time to give Hammel and Niemann another shot in the rotation? Terry Francona manages every game like it was the last game of the season and he was in a tie for the championship. Joe Torre, Ozzie, LaRussa and Pinella manage the same way. The one thing they all have in common is they all have been World Champions. Maddon hasn't won crap and if he doesn't start taking some chances, he never will. He just seems to thrive on not making the hard decisions.
8. I am very reluctant to put this one down because I don't have any proof that it's true. But the circle I travel in has been talking about office management people and specifically Andrew Friedman dictating to Maddon who, where, when and how much to play the guys on this team. If that is the case, it will not work. Suits totally screwed up the war in Viet Nam by deciding that they knew more about waging war than the generals.  George H.W. Bush and General Schwarzkoff proved that generals should run the wars. Suits just decide when, where and who with to do it.  It is the same with a baseball game. Suits do not belong on the field. If this information is not correct, I want to offer my apology to Mr. Friedman and the rest of the Rays management team. But it hard for me to believe that Maddon can be this stupid in keeping Pena hitting in the cleanup spot.  

OK, there it is. I am not nearly as angry as I was when I started this post. I guess getting this off my chest was good therapy. I still support the Rays and wish them nothing but success. As a matter of fact, I have been wishing for a Rays/Red Sox AL championship just to find out whom I would root for. However, the Blue Jays seem to have figured out how to play the game and win. The Red Sox are not far enough ahead to make me feel comfortable and the Rays don't seem to have the horses to win it. The Red Sox have to.

I have never been much of a believer that you can predict pivotal points in any season or in any sport. You can always look back and decide that a certain event or a certain game changed the whole complex of a season or the whole attitude of a team. But predicting a turning point in the middle of the season has no more credibility than buying a lottery ticket because you have a good feeling about it. However the Tampa Bay Rays begin a nine game road trip that could possibly be the pivotal point in their season. 

The Rays enter the friendly confines of Fenway Park tonight to begin the road trip that has them playing three games in Fenway, three games against the Rangers and three games against the Angels. That is three different time zones in nine days against teams that have something to hang on to and something to prove. It seems that the Rays are always playing somebody who is in or around first place in their division.

Tonight the Rays throw Matt Garza against the Sox and Justin Masterson, who is being called up from Pawtucket for the third time this year to make a spot start; in this case to fill in for Dice-K. Garza has a 2-0 record at Fenway with 2.53 ERA and will be going against a Sox team without David Ortiz in the line up. Wednesday has Edwin Jackson going against the Red Sox ace, Josh Beckett and James Shields goes against Jon Lester on Thursday. Scott Kazmir will not pitch in Boston and will open the series in Texas on Friday.

The Red Sox are 21-5 at home this year and they are coming off a strenuous road trip that saw Manny hit his 500-career home run and saw the loss of Big Papi for what may be a month or more.  An interesting match up to watch in this series is Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton on the bases. Ellsbury currently leads the Majors in steals; an accomplishment usually reserved for Crawford. The difference in this series may be the sea of red shirts in the stands that act as a tenth man for the Red Sox. You can never underestimate the power of the Red Sox Nation.

The Texas Rangers have one of the best line-ups in baseball and I don't have to recount the accomplishments of Josh Hamilton this year. Fortunately for the Rays, the Rangers also have the worst pitching and worst fielding in the American league. If the axiom is true that good pitching beats good hitting then the Rays should be all right. But then again, I saw Hamilton's grand slam at the Trop last week and still can't believe how hard he hit that ball.

The Angels series is an interesting one. The Angels were swept by the Rays at the Trop a couple of weeks ago and will be looking for some revenge. They feature good pitching, great defense and, to this point in the season, underachieving hitting. Cripes, that sounds just like the Rays.

This road trip may be a defining test for the upstart Rays. If they can get past the sweep they took in Boston in April and can control the bats of the Rangers they should arrive in LA mentally fit. But if they have troubles in the first two series, the Angels might have an easy time with them because of their youth and inexperience. This will be a true test of the effectiveness of Joe Maddon as a field manager.  

It is my opinion that if the Rays can win 4 or 5 games in this road trip, they will be a factor for the rest of the season. If they lose as many as 6 they will only be the spoilers in the American League for the rest of the way. This may be the pivotal point in the season for the Tampa Bay Rays and although I don't believe you can predict pivotal points, I am predicting this one and predicting a positive outcome. 

            The 2008 Major League Baseball's amateur draft is rapidly approaching and I am bewildered in how much media coverage it is getting. Tonight I was watching the Twins beat the Yankees on the 4-letter network and the announcers seemed to spend an inordinate amount of time talking about it.

            The MLB amateur draft is not the same as the NFL draft or the NBA draft where a choice can make an immediate impact. It is almost impossible for a for a kid right out of High School or College to even make a club with no minor league time; let alone make an impact.

            I decided to do a little research to basically justify my belief that the amateur draft in baseball is almost a non-story. Five years have passed since the 2003 amateur draft took place. That seemed to be enough time for the cream to rise to the top. However, I was even amazed at what I found. 

• 1478 young men were selected by 30 Major League ball clubs in the 2003 amateur draft. That is an average of 49+ players drafted by each team in a single year and this draft does not include foreign players.
• Of those 1478, only 95 have seen any Major League playing time at all. That figures to 6.43%
• The only team that drafted in 2003 that doesn't have even one player to see any Major league playing time is the Astros.
• 25 of the drafting teams have had their first round draft pick playing at least some time in the Majors. The Cubs, Marlins, Phillies, Tigers and Yankees have yet to have their 2003 first round picks see any time in the show
• The lowest pick in the 2003 draft to see any Major League playing time is Casey Janssen selected by the Orioles in the 49th round. However, Janssen did not sign with the O's and went into the 2004 draft where he was taken by the Blue Jays in the 4th round.
• There are only a handful of those 95 players to have much of an impact since they have been in the Majors. Andre Ethier, Arren Hill, Shaun Marcum, Jared Saltalamacchia, Rickie Weeks, Delmon Young, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Garko, Adam Jones, Lastings Milledge, Nick Markakis, John Danks, Ian Kinsler and Jonathan Papelbon all have been contributors but most of the others have only been roster fillers.

            The reality is that most of the players selected in the draft don't sign as a result of the draft. Many of the high school kids opt for college. Many of the college kids hang on for one more year for a better deal; as was the case with Casey Janssen. Some of these kids excel in other sports and opt for them rather than baseball. Some of them are realists that have concluded that making it in baseball is a long shot (except for a selective few) and choose to pursue other interests. 

            I guess that the point that I am trying to make is that the Major League amateur baseball draft is just not a big deal. We are not going to see anybody taken in this years draft for at least a year and probably more than that. It is all just media hype to give the reporters something to talk about. Like me!