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    WHY THE RAYS WON

    Thursday, June 5, 2008, 05:14 PM EST [General]

     

    I have been the guy. Up to this point, it has been pretty much only me. Oh, there have been two or three others who have posted very eloquently on the subject and others who have made reference to it in their blogs. But I am the one who has posted consistently since spring training about the emergence of the Tampa Bay Rays as a power in the American League this year.

     

    I'll admit it; I got caught up in the fantasy of the whole thing watching the Rays' work outs at the Naimoli complex during the spring. There was something there that hadn't been there before. I was convinced that this year's edition of the Rays was finally going to have a winning season for the first time in the history of the franchise. I even predicted in an earlier blog that they would win 88 games this year and would compete for a wild card spot. I went as far as to compare them to the Cardiac Kids of the 1967 Boston Red Sox. But now the bubble has burst. What I have been witnessing in the last two games at Fenway Park (and the previous 19 games) has convinced me that this team does not have what it takes to make a serious run at the playoffs this year. 

     

    I will try to elaborate my feeling on the subject.

    1.  The team does not have a legitimate star on offense that can carry the team during the bad times. It does not have a Yaz as the '67 Sox did. It does not have a Fred Lynn or Jim Rice as the '75 Sox did. It does not have a Paul Konerko as the '05 White Sox had. It does not have an Albert Pujols as the '06 Cardinals had. It does not have a Garret Anderson or a Troy Glaus as the '02 Angels had. It does not have a Chipper Jones that the '99 Braves had. I could go on but you get the point.
    2. The closest thing this team has to a star is B.J. Upton but he will be lucky to hit 20 homers this year and doesn't seem to have matured enough to be the leader on the field. The impression he leaves me with is that it is all about him and his next contract. Don't get me wrong, he is an outstanding center fielder and will hit around .300. He will steal a bunch of bases and have a bunch of RBIs batting from the 3 spot. He can make a game exciting but I don't see him stepping up to be the "man".
    3. Carl Crawford is generally considered to be the best player on the team but that was when he was being compared to the Rays lineups of old. He actually is an enigma. He is as fast as the wind but he has never been successful as a leadoff hitter. He can't do the things necessary to make him a good #2 hitter. He can't bunt. He strikes out too much. He is not a reliable hit and run guy. When he had the opportunity to bat 3rd in the order, he tried to become "Albert Pujols". All the things he could do well suffered and his production numbers did not justify batting him in the three spot. Where do you hit him to get the most out of his abilities?
    4. The team does not have a right fielder. Gabe Gross is defensively as good as there is in the league but he can't hit. Eric Hinske hits well enough but he has limited range and a limited arm in the field. Jonny Gomes maybe the nicest guy in the league and the teams best cheerleader but he doesn't even belong on the roster.
    5. Carlos Pena has not been producing as a clean-up hitter should produce. I believe that he will snap out of it but in the meantime he is hurting the team batting 4th. I was watching the game on Monday night when he got hit in the hand by a pitch. When he came to bat after that incident, he did not have the first two fingers of his left hand on the bat and he hit a homer. Pena has a swing that is reminiscent of Pete Incaviglia; a pronounced uppercut. Inky hit a lot of homers but he struck out more than anyone else in the league when he played regularly. That kind of swing requires that all the mechanics have to be perfect to bring success. Pena's top hand has been too strong all year and as a result he hasn't been driving the ball. Joe Magraine commented on the same thing and he was a pitcher, what does he know?
    6. Jason Bartlett is being wasted in the 9th spot. He has all the tools to become a great #2 hitter. He can bunt, he can hit the ball to the right side and he has good speed. He will eventually hit close to .300. His strikeouts (which are not a huge amount) will be reduced when he exhibits the disciplines necessary to hit in the 2 hole.
    7. Joe Maddon shows about as much imagination in managing a game on the field as David Archuletta did on American Idol in trying to translate a nice song into something entertaining. He babies the bullpen to a point of losing games. He warms up people too late and they are not ready when they are needed. He will stick with his starters too long to try and save his bullpen. What difference does it make when you lose? If Jackson and Sonny don't show a marked improvement in their next starts, is it not the right time to give Hammel and Niemann another shot in the rotation? Terry Francona manages every game like it was the last game of the season and he was in a tie for the championship. Joe Torre, Ozzie, LaRussa and Pinella manage the same way. The one thing they all have in common is they all have been World Champions. Maddon hasn't won crap and if he doesn't start taking some chances, he never will. He just seems to thrive on not making the hard decisions.
    8. I am very reluctant to put this one down because I don't have any proof that it's true. But the circle I travel in has been talking about office management people and specifically Andrew Friedman dictating to Maddon who, where, when and how much to play the guys on this team. If that is the case, it will not work. Suits totally screwed up the war in Viet Nam by deciding that they knew more about waging war than the generals.  George H.W. Bush and General Schwarzkoff proved that generals should run the wars. Suits just decide when, where and who with to do it.  It is the same with a baseball game. Suits do not belong on the field. If this information is not correct, I want to offer my apology to Mr. Friedman and the rest of the Rays management team. But it hard for me to believe that Maddon can be this stupid in keeping Pena hitting in the cleanup spot.  

    OK, there it is. I am not nearly as angry as I was when I started this post. I guess getting this off my chest was good therapy. I still support the Rays and wish them nothing but success. As a matter of fact, I have been wishing for a Rays/Red Sox AL championship just to find out whom I would root for. However, the Blue Jays seem to have figured out how to play the game and win. The Red Sox are not far enough ahead to make me feel comfortable and the Rays don't seem to have the horses to win it. The Red Sox have to.

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    The Amateur Baseball Draft

    Monday, June 2, 2008, 09:09 PM EST [General]

                The 2008 Major League Baseball's amateur draft is rapidly approaching and I am bewildered in how much media coverage it is getting. Tonight I was watching the Twins beat the Yankees on the 4-letter network and the announcers seemed to spend an inordinate amount of time talking about it.

                The MLB amateur draft is not the same as the NFL draft or the NBA draft where a choice can make an immediate impact. It is almost impossible for a for a kid right out of High School or College to even make a club with no minor league time; let alone make an impact.

                I decided to do a little research to basically justify my belief that the amateur draft in baseball is almost a non-story. Five years have passed since the 2003 amateur draft took place. That seemed to be enough time for the cream to rise to the top. However, I was even amazed at what I found. 

     

    • 1478 young men were selected by 30 Major League ball clubs in the 2003 amateur draft. That is an average of 49+ players drafted by each team in a single year and this draft does not include foreign players.
    • Of those 1478, only 95 have seen any Major League playing time at all. That figures to 6.43%
    • The only team that drafted in 2003 that doesn't have even one player to see any Major league playing time is the Astros.
    • 25 of the drafting teams have had their first round draft pick playing at least some time in the Majors. The Cubs, Marlins, Phillies, Tigers and Yankees have yet to have their 2003 first round picks see any time in the show
    • The lowest pick in the 2003 draft to see any Major League playing time is Casey Janssen selected by the Orioles in the 49th round. However, Janssen did not sign with the O's and went into the 2004 draft where he was taken by the Blue Jays in the 4th round.
    • There are only a handful of those 95 players to have much of an impact since they have been in the Majors. Andre Ethier, Arren Hill, Shaun Marcum, Jared Saltalamacchia, Rickie Weeks, Delmon Young, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Garko, Adam Jones, Lastings Milledge, Nick Markakis, John Danks, Ian Kinsler and Jonathan Papelbon all have been contributors but most of the others have only been roster fillers.

                The reality is that most of the players selected in the draft don't sign as a result of the draft. Many of the high school kids opt for college. Many of the college kids hang on for one more year for a better deal; as was the case with Casey Janssen. Some of these kids excel in other sports and opt for them rather than baseball. Some of them are realists that have concluded that making it in baseball is a long shot (except for a selective few) and choose to pursue other interests. 

                I guess that the point that I am trying to make is that the Major League amateur baseball draft is just not a big deal. We are not going to see anybody taken in this years draft for at least a year and probably more than that. It is all just media hype to give the reporters something to talk about. Like me!

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    Trivia Question

    Friday, May 30, 2008, 01:51 PM EST [General]

    Well, I was going to do a pre-weekend Rays Report today but Dayn Perry did an OK one on the front page and saved me the trouble. So instead I'll offer a trivia question.

    TRIVIA  QUESTION:

     

    The set-up: In 1977, George Foster hit 52 home runs for the Cincinnati Reds.  He became only the 10th player in the history of Major league Baseball to hit 50 or more home runs in a single season. Between 1978 and 2007, 15 additional players have passed the 50-homer plateau in a single season.

     

    The question: Who were the nine players to have hit 50 home runs in a single season before George Foster did it?

     


     

    The Answer:

    Babe Ruth:  4 Times; all with the Yankees.

                1920 - 54

                1921 - 59

                1927 - 60

                1928 - 54

    Hack Wilson:  Chicago Cubs

                1930 - 56

    Jimmie Foxx: 2 times

                1932 - 58 Philadelphia (AL)

                1938 - 50 Red Sox

    Hank Greenberg:  Detroit Tigers

                1938 - 58

    Ralph Kiner: Pittsburgh Pirates

                1947 - 51

    Johnny Mize:  N.Y. Giants

                1947 - 51

    Willie Mays:  2 Times, N.Y. Giants

                1955 - 51

                1965 - 52

    Mickey Mantle:  2 Times, N.Y. Yankees

                1956 - 52

                1961 - 54

    Roger Maris:  N.Y. Yankees

                1961 - 61

     

     

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    The Rays are not going away!

    Tuesday, May 27, 2008, 11:42 AM EST [General]

    I am just beside myself. I don't know how to behave. On one shoulder there is a little demon telling me to be cautious and humble in my actions and on the other shoulder is a different little demon telling me to shout it out and rub it in everybody's face.

    My dilemma is that Your Tampa Bay Rays have the best won/lost record in Major League Baseball; and it is May 27th with only 2 games left to play to complete 1/3 of the regular season. Nothing like that has ever even been close to happening before and it doesn't look like it is going to end any too soon. Yet it is hard to definitively say why it is happening.

    I have been following Major league Baseball for close to 50 years and I have seen runs like this before, but they all seemed to end as quickly as they began. This one feels different. This team doesn't have one or two offensive weapons that are carrying them. So far it hasn't shown sustained great pitching from any of the staff. What we have seen is different players every game stepping up at the right time. We have seen the pitching staff give steady performances almost every night. We have grown to expect that the bullpen (which has been the worst in baseball for ten years) is going to hold the lead and we are stunned when they don't.

    This Rays team doesn't have a Josh Hamilton or Chipper Jones or Lance Berkman tearing up the league and putting the fear of God into the eyes of opposing pitchers. It doesn't have Chase Uttley or Dan Ugla  hitting homers every twelve at bats. Their top run producer is 40th in the Major Leagues in RBIs. It doesn't have a Brandon Webb or an Edinson Volquez or Tim Lincecum or Cliff Lee or Joe Saunders to almost Guarantee a win every fifth day and completely demoralize the opposition for the next game. It doesn't have Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathan Papelbon, George Sherrill or Mariano Rivera closing out games. What it has is an old warhorse with attitude coming back from surgery and retirement for one last shot at the brass ring.

    Even the area that is supposed to be the bright spot for the Rays isn't the best in the league....team speed. They lead the league in stolen bases but they also lead the league in getting caught stealing. Eight players in the Majors have more stolen bases than Carl Crawford (the perennial stolen base leader) and even Joey Gathright, playing a limited amount, has the same amount of thefts as C.C..

    So why do the Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in all of baseball (Gee, it's fun to say that) with 1/3 of the season over? Hell, I don't know. According to the individual statistics they shouldn't have it. Or maybe that's the reason that they are the best. No one or two players on this team has to carry the load offensively. No one or two pitchers has to carry the load on the hill. The pitchers don't have to strike everybody out because they have the best defense in the league. 

    I think the most important quality this team has is character. I have listened to many player interviews this year I have heard one common theme in them all. Baseball is a game, and you are supposed to have fun when playing a game. If you have ever seen this team congregate after a victory you know they are having fun.

    The young guys like Jason Bartlett, Evan Longoria and Aki Iwamura don't know that they are not supposed to win. Troy Percival, Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd have won it all. They are not letting the rest of the team settle for mediocrity. They are teaching the others that winning may not be everything but losing is absolutely nothing. The whole team saw Eric Hinske's reaction when a delegation of Red Sox players presented him with his World Series ring from last year. They want that same feeling.  

    Watch out American league, this team is for real and is not going away gracefully.

    On a lighter note; can you imagine the panic in the networks' mind and in Major League Baseball's mind when the think about an all Florida World Series in 2008?

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    Josh Hamilton / Tampa bay Rays

    Friday, May 23, 2008, 11:27 PM EST [General]

               

    A normal Friday morning has me sitting at my computer reading the local newspapers (plus a couple of out-of-towners) and drinking a large cup of coffee or two. Today was no exception, except that, for a reason I cannot explain, I decided to read some of the reader's comments on the different articles about the Tampa Bay Rays. For some reason I was surprised when I found two comments berating the Rays management for not keeping Josh Hamilton.

                                                      

                I basically dismissed the comments and went about my daily business. Shortly after noon I was in my car and listening to a local sports radio talk show when a caller made reference to the Rays decision on Hamilton and again berated the Rays management for letting him go. Now, it would be a wonderful thing to have Josh Hamilton patrolling right field for this year's edition of the Rays but I was never really in conflict with the decision not to protect him. I decided to revisit the events of Josh Hamilton's baseball career.

                For those of you who are not familiar with Hamilton's history, I will offer a brief Synopsis.

                The Tampa Bay Devil Rays selected Josh Hamilton as the first pick in the 1999 amateur baseball draft. He came out of Athens Drive High School in Raleigh, NC, the first high school player to be selected first in the draft since Alex Rodriguez in 1993. He appeared to be a "can't miss" player with a huge bat and a 95 MPH fastball. The Devil Rays offered him a $4 million signing bonus and he signed a contract immediately. This allowed him to play in the developmental league before being moved up to the to the Charleston River Dogs for the 2000 season.

                At the end of that season he was still only 19 years old and considered the best prospect in America. However, in February of 2001 he was in a car accident that caused him to miss most of the upcoming season. He remained in Bradenton, FL after the accident for rehabilitation but had nothing but time on his hands and money in his pockets. That was apparently where his drug problems and his tattoos began. He played in 56 games in 2002 before going down with lingering back and shoulder problems; probably resulting from the car accident but on July 15th, 2002 he was suspended for violating MLB's substance abuse policy.

                In spring training of 2003, Lou Pinella sent him down to the minor league camp and he basically went missing for about six weeks. When he finally did show up at the Devil Rays camp, Pinella sent him home with instructions to get his life straightened out. In February of 2004, MLB suspended him indefinitely for substance abuse violations. He was originally scheduled to come off suspension in March 2005, but MLB extended the suspension through the end of the season because of additional violations.

                Josh Hamilton finally got clean in October, 2005. He had been in rehab 8 times (few of which he completed) and had a number of suicide attempts. His $4 Million signing bonus was gone. In June 2006, MLB with pressure from the Devil Rays lifted his suspension and he returned to playing minor league ball for the Hudson Valley Renegades. He played a dozen or so games when he injured his knee (requiring surgery) and was out for the rest of the season. 

                When the 2006 Rule 5 Draft was approaching, the Devil Rays had to make a decision on him. He had been with the team for seven years but had barely played for two and he was coming off of knee surgery. They already had two problems kids in the organization in Delmon Young (who had been suspended for throwing a bat at an umpire in AAA) and Elijah Dukes (who had his own set of problems). They chose not to protect him on the 40-man roster.

                The Cubs selected him in the draft and immediately sold him to the Reds. The problem for the Reds was that they had to keep him on the active 25-man roster for the whole season or surrender him back to the Rays. And this proved a bonus for him. There are no extra men in the National League. If you are on the team you play; and he played well. After the season, the Rangers (after serious investigation) traded for him and here we are today. 

                It has been well documented that the Rays have (for the past couple of years) arguably the best farm system in the Major Leagues. Having to decide who is going to be protected on a 40-man roster has got to be a difficult chore. If I were in Andrew Friedman's place in 2006, I would have done the same thing as he did. I would have left Hamilton (a junkie who had only been clean for a couple of months) off the roster and I would have showcased the other two guys in 2007 for the sole purpose of dealing them. 

                Josh Hamilton has been clean for about 2

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