As the remaining two rounds of the World Cup qualifying in the Americas draws nearer only five teams out of 16 definitely know their fate. In the South America group Brazil and Paraguay have secured spots in the finals, while Bolivia and Peru have already been eliminated.

Further north Trinidad and Tobago knows that they won’t be making it two consecutive appearances in the last thirty-two.

 As for the rest, some of the countries are certainly in stronger positions than others but any complacency could prove very costly. And while each federation sorts out their remaining automatic qualifiers many countries will be casting an eye aware that the 5th place finisher in CONMEBOL will have to see off the 4th place team in CONCACAF in order to make it to South Africa.

In fact the situation is so tight that the countries considered next in line for the respective automatic spots (Chile 3rd and United States 1st) could nose-dive into the play-off spots by next Wednesday evening.

Even draws this weekend against Colombia and Honduras respectively would not do the trick unless other results go their way. Ecuador sits fourth in COMNEBOL on 23 points and heads a quintet of countries all of whom maintain realistic ambitions of one kind or another. Colombia brings up the rear with 20 points and a home win against Chile on Saturday looks to be compulsory.

Venezuela is a point above Colombia and finds themselves facing the two countries that have already qualified. At home to Paraguay and then away in Camp Grande to face Brazil is no slam dunk but at least their opponents have much less riding on the results than they might have otherwise.

Uruguay have been South America’s play-off representatives in 2001 and 2005 (one success/one failure) and they need at least a draw in the altitude of Quito against Ecuador to have any chance of a top four finish and they would still need other results to go their way.

And that leaves two-time World Cup Champions and the current occupant of 5th place Argentina. Argentina are in the slightly peculiar position whereby they could win both of their remaining matches and still be forced to settle for the play off route – it could also be the same end result should they lose both games.

It was a qualifying journey that started well with three straight wins (2 home and one away), seven goals scored and none conceded. In retrospect it is just as well that points were picked up as otherwise their average of a point a game over the other 13 games would have them just slightly above second-from-the-bottom Bolivia.

Manager Alfio Basile resigned after ten qualifying games the last of which was a loss to Chile. Considering the team picked up 16 points under Basile and with the benefit of hindsight, the resignation seems to have been a m****ive overreaction.

In came Maradona as Coach and although things started well with a 4-0 win over Venezuela it turned out very much a false dawn. A 1-0 win at home against Colombia has provided the only points in their last five games and for Argentina it is truly crunch time.  

Under normal circumstances a match against last place Peru in Buenos Aires would be nothing more than a minor convenience – but these are not normal times. And Maradona is not a normal coach.

The conventional wisdom has it that in times of crisis the manager turns to experience and calls for calm – not so with Maradona. He threatened to pack in the job even if Argentina does qualify for South Africa and 13 of his 26-man squad named earlier this week have not started in any of the previous 16 qualifying games.

A look at his choice of defenders does not inspire confidence but the real source of Argentina’s problems has been their inability to score goals away from home resulting in a scarcity of points on their travels.

Stretching back to the 2006 qualifying campaign Argentina have only won one away match of the last eleven, have been shut out seven times and have only scored five goals. How such a thing is possible with the likes of Messi, Tevez and Aguero available is hard to fathom. But that is Argentina’s reality and one that they need to overcome.

Because after they play Peru on Saturday their final match is across the River Plate in Montevideo.  No two countries have faced each other more times than these two and it will be their 198th meeting since the inaugural in 1902. And it could be that next Wednesday’s encounter will only be exceeded in importance by the first World Cup Final in 1930 and the round of 16 meeting in 1986.