<sup>The start of the new Premier League season is only days away and over the next five days I will preview all twenty clubs. It is an opportunity to stick your own neck out as well. Criticize my picks and the picks of others as much as you like – but be ready to back up your statements with your own predicted finishes. No trolling – instant red card.  You can also predict the first manager to leave their post as well as the three teams that will come up from the Championship.

Prediction contest rules are:
1. Five points for every exact finishing position predicted correctly.</sup>

^{2. Bonus points for correctly predicting the following:
           Champion 25 points
           Runner Up 20 points
           Third place 15 points
           Fourth place 10 points
           Fifth place 5 points
          18th, 19th and 20th spots all 10 points each}

^{3. Deductions - 2 points off for each position actually finished vs. predicted finish
i.e. actual finish 12th, predicted 10th, deduction of 4 points}

^{4. Bonus points - 15 points for each of the promoted clubs from the Championship correctly predicted.}

^{Max point available - 250 points (I think). Manager is the tie breaker.}

<sup>Last but not least the calculations are on the honour system.

Each club preview will include the close season comings-and-goings, the respective Premiership finishes over the last six seasons (from 2004 to 2009), a quick look back at the 2008/09 season as well as the latest odds on winning the Premiership. There are also the odds on the first manager to be shown the door. Finally for each team there is a synopsis and a prediction which you would do well to take with a pinch of salt!</sup>

 

First manager to go - Alex McLeish (Birmingham City)

 

Promoted - West Brom and Middlebrough automatic; Cardiff play offs

Friday - West Ham, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves

West Ham United
Past performances (N/A, N/A, 9th, 15th, 10th, 9th)

Rear View Mirror – West Ham finished in the top half of the Premier League last season (10th) but it was the lowest finish of all the London-based clubs.

Top scorer last season – Carlton Cole 10

Front door – Peter Kurucz, Luis Jimenez (loan),

Back door - Freddie Sears (loan), Diego Tristan, Lee Bowyer

Win the title? – 750/1

Fire the Manager! – Gianfranco Zola 16/1

Synopsis –Gianfranco Zola and assistant manager Steve Clarke deserve plaudits for managing to pilot West Ham through a tricky 2008/09 season. It was a gamble to appoint such an inexperienced manager after the early season departure of Alan Curbishley but it worked – in the short term anyway.

When you consider that the Icelandic financial meltdown struck the West Ham boardroom with a vengeance, all in all a second consecutive mid-table finish was a decent performance. Unfortunately for Hammers’ supporters the same again is probably the height of ambition.

The new owners are only sticking around to protect their initial loans while waiting for the economic tide to rise so they can sell and move on. Investment in the squad will be minimal and significant departures are more likely than arrivals before the transfer window slams shut.

That hardly seems promising for the on-field product but the silver-lining to the current ownership situation is that West Ham is a far more valuable product as a Premier League than they are as a Premiership side.  As such no one has an interest in killing the golden egg laying goose. The operation will be tightly run but not to the point of endangering the value of the asset that is West Ham.

Season’s narrative – Who will finally buy the club and provide some long term stability?

Prediction – 10th


Manchester United
Past performances (3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st)

Rear View Mirror – Last season United only dropped two points against teams that finished in the bottom half of the table.

Top scorer last season – Cristiano Ronaldo 18

Front door – Antonio Valencia, Michael Owen, Gabriel Obertan

Back door – Carlos Tevez, Cristiano Ronaldo, Rodrigo Possebon (loan), Fraizer Campbell, Richard Eckersley, Manucho

Win the title? – 2/1

Fire the Manager! – Sir Alex Ferguson 33/1

Synopsis – The trophies and achievements of Sir Alex Ferguson are unmatched in the annals of British football.  And as Manchester United ready for another English season another record beckons.

No English team has ever won the top-flight in four consecutive seasons. Huddersfield was the first to complete a hat trick in the 20s and Arsenal matched the feat in the next decade. Half a century later Liverpool also matched the achievement.

Either side of the millennium Manchester became the fourth club to win three-in-a-row but failed when Arsenal won the Premier League in 2002 and United finished third. Now for the second time this decade United has the chance to be the first club to take four straight titles.

Ferguson’s knack for reinventing United over the last two decades has been one of the secrets of a run of success that is unrivalled in English football. (Last season’s league title was the 11th in 17 seasons which beat Liverpool’s run of the same number of wins but in 18 seasons between 1972/93 and 1989/90.) However, history does show that on occasion the metamorphosis has not been immediate.

Eric Cantona retired in 1997 – United failed to win the Premier League the following season.
Jaap Stam was shown the door in 2001 - United failed to win the Premier League the following season.
David Beckham was sold to Real Madrid in 2003 - United failed to win the Premier League the following season.
Ronaldo and Tevez 2009……………

Season’s narrative – How will United replace the goal scorers they have lost during the summer?

Prediction – 2nd


Tottenham Hotspur
Past performances (14th, 9th, 5th, 5th, 11th, 8th)

Rear View Mirror - Tottenham conceded just 10 goals at home last season which was the best defensive record of any Premier League side at home.

Top scorer last season – Darren Bent 12

Front door – Kyle Naughton, Kyle Walker, Peter Crouch, Sebastien Bassong
 
Back door – Ricardo Rocha, Didier Zokora, Chris Gunter, Adel Taarabt (loan), Darren Bent

Win the title? – 80/1

Fire the Manager! – Harry Redknapp 33/1

Synopsis – With so many managerial changes and players constantly moving in and out it can difficult to benchmark Spurs. You can look at goals scored (07/08 it was 66; last season 46); goals conceded (07/08 61 to 45 last season); poor starts precipitating changes at the top and countless other factors.

But over the last ten seasons one thing sticks out above all others. Spurs are horrible away from home.

At WHL they get the job done and generally do it well. Five times their home wins in a season have been in double figures and they have never won fewer than eight games while enjoying the comforts of home.  

Away from home it is a completely different story. Even in the two seasons when they finished 5th their away form was still an Achilles heel. Over ten seasons they have never had a season in which they have won more away games than they have lost.

What is more they only once won more than five (six in 05/06). In total Spurs have won 43 Premier league road games out of the last 190 they have played – less than one quarter.

If Spurs truly are going to emerge as a top four club under Harry Redknapp then away from home is where they have to improve and the improvement has to be a massive one.

Season’s narrative – As soon as the transfer window closes Harry will banging on about the glut of players he wants to sign come January.

Prediction – 8th


Wolves
Past performances - (Promoted)

Rear View Mirror – Wolves won the Coca Cola Championship by seven points and scored 80 goals while conceding 52.

Top scorer last season – Sylvain Ebanks-Blake 25

Front door – Nenad Milijas, Marcus Hahnemann, Kevin Doyle, Andrew Surman, Greg Halford, Michael Mancienne (loan)

Back door – Nobody of consequence

Win the title? – 2,000/1

Fire the Manager! – Mick McCarthy 16/1

Synopsis – Wolves are back in the top flight for only the second time since 1984 and hope to stay around longer than a one season stint in 2003/04. The same could be said for manager Mick McCarthy. He can claim two spells as a Premier League manager but with few high points.

He was handed an anchor called Sunderland in 2003 and could not keep them in the top flight. After two seasons in the Championship he helped the club to promotion but as the third anniversary of his appointment approached he was fired as relegation became close to inevitable.

This time it has been a case of building a team from the ground up and this is very much McCarthy’s team. He has made some excellent signings over the last couple of seasons with the likes of Sylvan Ebanks-Blake (Plymouth Argyle), Christophe Berra (Hearts) and Chris Iwelumo (Charlton) joining the club.

McCarthy has gone for an eclectic mix of players to add to his Championship winning squad.
Goalkeeper Marcus Hahnemann has been signed to provide some competition for Wales international Wayne Hennessy – a canny move considering Matt Murray’s long standing injury problems.

Kevin Doyle made a largely favorable impression while last in the Premier League with Reading and should add scoring depth. Not much is known about midfielder Nenad Milijas (Red Star Belgrade) and Ronald Zubar (Marseille) while Greg Halford joins his fifth club in three years.

If McCarthy can maintain the side’s confidence there is a good chance that the 2010 season will finish with at least three teams worse off than Wolves.

Season’s narrative – Can they keep some clean sheets?  

Prediction – 16th

Thursday – Arsenal, Wigan, Manchester City, Portsmouth

Arsenal
Past performances (1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 3rd, 4th)

Rear View Mirror - Scored more away goals last season than any other Premier League team – 37.  

Top scorer last season – Robin van Persie 11

Front door – Thomas Vermaelen

Back door – Emmanuel Adebayor, Kolo Touré, Amaury Bischoff, Rui Fonte, Fran Merida (loan)

Win the title? – 8/1

Fire the Manager! – Arsene Wenger 25/1

Synopsis – In sharing my forecast for Arsenal with colleagues I have been accused of (a) ingesting illegal substances, (b) drinking water with mind altering properties and (c) having just plain lost it.

Admittedly it is a prediction that is made without strong conviction but frankly I cannot believe the herd mentality that has already written off Arsenal not only as possible contenders but as a top four team.

The merchants of doom seem to be basing much of their case on Arsenal’s inexperience and Wenger’s reticence to bring in a couple of key players.  I would contend that is Arsenal’s youth that makes such a compelling case for the team to improve this season rather than going in to reverse. After all, this is a side that improved markedly over the course of last season.  

Admittedly 14 games into the season is an arbitrary mark but that proved to be Arsenal’s darkest hour last season. At that stage Liverpool and Chelsea each had 33 points (puts Scolari’s early returns in a different perspective as well perhaps?), Manchester United 28 and Arsenal 23. Everton at that point had 19 points and Villa 24.

Over the remaining 24 games Arsenal and Liverpool only lost one game apiece although they did rack up 10 and 8 draws. Points-wise United steamrollered their way to another 62 points, Liverpool 53, Chelsea 51, Arsenal, 49, Everton 44 and Villa 38. Was this the performance of a side in terminal decline?

If (a) Eduardo stays injury free, (b) Arshavin builds on an impressive second half of the season and (c) Wenger picks up an experienced (and top class) defender and a midfielder before the end of August then some folks might make a tidy profit at odds of 8/1.
    
Season’s narrative – Arsene Wenger, genius or cheapskate?

Prediction – 1st


Wigan
Past performances (N/A, N/A, 10th, 17th, 14th, 11th)

Rear View Mirror - Wigan failed to score a goal in 17 of their 38 games last season.

Top scorer last season – Amr Zaki 10

Front door – Jordi Gomez, Hendry Thomas, Jason Scotland, James McCarthy, Scott Sinclair (loan)

Back door – Antonio Valencia, Henri Camara, Antoine Sibierski, Lee Cattermole

Win the title? – 2,000/1

Fire the Manager! – Roberto Martinez 16/1

Synopsis –Twelve months ago few expected Wigan to finish in such a comfortable mid-table finish and to never be in danger of the drop. Deservedly kudos went to manager Steve Bruce but Bruce has now left and his successor, Roberto Martinez, might inherit some unrealistic expectations.

In fact, if there was a poison chalice in the Premier League, Martinez might be this season’s recipient.  Nonetheless, Wigan owner Dave Whelan has turned to Martinez, a Wigan player in the late 90s to pick up where Bruce left off.

However, he takes on a club that has been shorn of the talented Antonio Valencia (to Manchester United) and the energy and combativeness of Lee Cattermole (Sunderland to rejoin Steve Bruce).

Martinez’s first signing also reconnected him with a former player. In this case it was Spaniard Jordi Gomez who was a focal point for Martinez at Swansea. The silky midfielder spent a year on loan at Swansea from Espanyol before Wigan swooped earlier this summer.

Another former charge at Swansea, Jason Scotland, has been brought in to score goals. The T&T international has seen his career undergo a remarkable turnaround in the last four years. In 2005 he was refused a work permit while on the staff of Dundee United in the SPL as was released. Three weeks later he had a contract with St Johnstone and a work permit and used his time with St Johnstone as a launching pad to what is now a Premier League at the age of 30.

Season’s narrative – They play nice football but did last season’s 11th place mark the glass ceiling?

Prediction – 15th


Manchester City
Past performances (16th, 8th, 15th, 14th, 9th, 10th)

Rear View Mirror – Last campaign City had 13 wins and six losses at home and became the first club since Liverpool in 1963-64 to go through an entire English top-flight season without a home draw.

Top scorer last season – Robinho 14

Front door – Gareth Barry, Roque Santa Cruz, Stuart Taylor, Carlos Tevez, Emmanuel Adebayor, Kolo Toure
 
Back door – Joe Hart (loan), Dietmar Hamann, Danny Mills, Darius Vassell, Daniel Sturridge, Gelson Fernandes, Jo (loan), Elano, Ched Evans

Win the title? – 12/1

Fire the Manager! – Mark Hughes 11/2

Synopsis – There is nothing more guaranteed to generate a heated discussion this close season than the words Manchester City. It is almost impossible to see “Manchester City” in print without seeing a £, €, or $ close-by.

And then there are the questions. Are the players worth the money that City has paid? Will City break into the top four? How long will Mark Hughes be given? What about the defense? Who will they sign next?

Once we get through the clutter there are a few things self evident. The difference in quality between this City team and the one that kicked off the 2008/09 is significant. City can not only look to this summer’s arrivals by the others who were signed during the January transfer window.

Shay Given, Wayne Bridge and Nigel de Jong are all solid players. Toss in Barry, Toure, Tevez, Adebayor and Santa Cruz (when fit) and you have a deeper squad and a better starting eleven. What you don’t have however, is a team capable of winning the Premier League or finishing in the top four.

Improvement – yes. Instant success – no. And that may not be enough to keep Hughes employed at Eastlands beyond May 2010.

Season’s narrative – Money, money, money…it’s a Mark Hughes world…. for the time being.

Prediction – 6th

Portsmouth
Past performances (13th, 16th, 17th, 9th, 8th, 14th)

Rear View Mirror – Last season Pompey only led for a total of 153 minutes out of a possible 1710 minutes of away play during last season.  

Top scorer last season – Peter Crouch 11

Front door – Aaron Mokoena, Steve Finnan, Frederic Piquionne (loan), Antti Niemi

Back door – Glen Johnson, Djimi Traore, Sean Davis, Noe Pamarot, Lauren, Glen Little, Jerome Thomas, Peter Crouch

Win the title? – 750/1

Fire the Manager! – Paul Hart 11/2

Synopsis – No team has had a worse summer than Portsmouth. The financial realities of living beyond their means have caught up with them and with the ownership change still to be consummated Portsmouth has the look of Newcastle South about them.

The team that pushed into the upper echelons of the Premier League and lifted the FA Cup has been gutted with the futures of the few who are left far from assured. The job that manager Paul Hart has in front of him is, to say the least, daunting.

He was able to stabilize the club when he took over from Tony Adams but rather being offered a life raft this summer he has been thrown an anchor or two. Any money raised through the sale of players has been used to reduce the debt burden with new arrivals at Fratton Park picked from the bargain bin.

Season’s narrative – A long hard winter.

Prediction – 18th

WEDNESDAY - Burnley, Sunderland, Chelsea, Stoke City

Burnley
Past performances (Promoted)

Rear View Mirror – Burnley finished 5th in last season’s Championship and beat Sheffield United in the play off final. Last season Burnley conceded 60 goals and only six Championship teams allowed more.

Top scorer last season – Martin Paterson 13

Front door – Tyrone Mears, Steven Fletcher, David Edgar, Richard Eckersely, Brian Easton, Fernando Guerrero (loan)

Back door – Alan Mahon

Win the title? – 5,000/1

Fire the Manager! – Owen Coyle 16/1

Synopsis – There are fans of a certain ilk that can not only remember the last time Burnley was in the top flight of English football (1976) but even further back to a time when they were a feared side capable of challenging for league titles and FA Cups.

In fact, if it wasn’t for Spurs’ domestic double winning side of the 1961 the Burnley team managed by Harry Potts would have surely received more accolades than they have. During a three season spell from 1959/60 to 61/62 the Clarets put together a fantastic run.

They won the First Division in 1960 and twelve months later they lost in an FA Cup semi-final to Spurs while finishing fourth in the league. In 1962 they achieved the dubious honor of completing the runners up domestic double. They lost 3-1 to Spurs in the FA Cup final and finished second to Ipswich in the First Division.

To commemorate the achievements of the team from nearly half a century ago this Burnley side intends to wear shirts from that era. That, however, will be the nearest this Burnley side will come to matching the team from long ago.

Burnley accounted for the likes of Chelsea and Arsenal before narrowly – many would say unfortunately – losing to Spurs (50 years on and it is still happening!) in the Carling Cup semi-final. They rightly received plaudits for their play and attitude.

But doing it on the big occasion is one thing but keeping up performance levels week in and out is another. It is going to be a tough slog for Burnley and it is doubtful that any side has a more difficult start – Stoke (a), Manchester United (h), Everton (h), Chelsea (a), and Liverpool (a).

Season’s narrative – Take your pick between – Are Burnley going to do a Hull?  Or would Burnley stand a chance if they didn’t have manager Owen Coyle?

Prediction – 17th

Sunderland
Past performances (N/A, N/A, 20th, N/A, 15th, 16th)

Rear View Mirror - Sunderland opened the scoring 17 times but only won 8 of these games, drew 4 and lost the other 5 – the poorest record in the league.

Top scorer last season – Kenwyne Jones 10

Front door – Fraizer Campbell, Paulo Da Silva, Darren Bent, Lorik Cana

Back door – Dwight Yorke, Nick Colgan, David Connolly, Greg Halford, Michael Chopra, Dean Whitehead

Win the title? – 1,000/1

Fire the Manager! – Steve Bruce 20/1

Synopsis – In an area of the country were the word “Messiah” has been used liberally, Sunderland’s new boss Steve Bruce will no doubt be dubbed so if Sunderland shows any sign of emerging as a top half team this season. 

Based on fan support and financial backing a top ten position should not beyond Sunderland but when you consider their Premier League record over this past decade baby steps might be preferable.

A 7th place finish in 2001 was the high point and since then it has been two bottom place finishes; three other finishes in the bottom six and three years in the Championship.

This current stretch of two seasons in the top flight has generated more action off the field than on it as players have come and gone with the supporters seeing little to justify the huge transfer investment.

Relegation was avoided but the possibility was very real until the last moments of the 2008/09 season. Now they have turned to manager who has also seen his share of ups and downs.

Relegation from the Premier League while in charge at Birmingham blackened Steve Bruce’s growing reputation as one of England’s best young managers.

However, his imaginative signings and loan deals at Wigan as well as some canny organizational skills has upped his value once again and has resurrected his standing as a top flight manager.

This will be the acid test for Steve Bruce – a club with money, a great fan base and a great stadium. If he can succeed - relatively speaking – then his name will start to be linked with bigger and better clubs and perhaps even the national team position. 

Season’s narrative – Sunderland has not enjoyed the luxury of a consistent goal scorer since the heyday of Kevin Phillips. Can Darren Bent fill that role and prove himself once and for all a more decisive finisher than Mrs. Harry Redknapp?

Prediction – 12th

Chelsea
Past performances (2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd)

Rear View Mirror - Finished with more away points last season (44) than any other club.

Top scorer last season – Nicolas Anelka 19

Front door – Daniel Sturridge, Yuri Zhirkov, Ross Turnbull

Back door – Franco Di Santo (loan), Ben Sahar

Win the title? – 9/4

Fire the Manager! – Carlo Ancelotti 12/1

Synopsis – Another season and another Chelsea manager. Luiz Felipe Scolari becomes the fourth man in charge of the club in five years and despite Roman Abramovich’s almost limitless largesse Chelsea has yet to become the dominant club in England let alone in Europe.

Another season and another Chelsea manager.  Carlo Ancelotti becomes the sixth man in charge of the club in six seasons and despite Roman Abramovich’s almost limitless largesse Chelsea has yet to become the dominant club in England let alone in Europe.

It has, however, been a very quiet summer in terms of Chelsea’s dealing in the transfer market. Despite being linked with the usual suspects Russian left-sided player Yuri Zhirkov is the only new face that has cost the club any money – so far.

And it is the new found stability that appears to be the primary reasons why more and more pundits are picking Chelsea as the team most likely to topple Manchester United this season. (Ironic, as in past years the plethora of new signings was regularly propagated as the reason to pick Chelsea as Champions-in-waiting).   

Granted the team still has a solid look to the defence and as they showed last Sunday there is still the resilience instilled during the Jose Mourinho years. Guus Hiddink turned the season around (and perhaps some careers) last season and the hope is that Ancelotti can continue the good work.

However, there were times when the Chelsea bench looked mighty thin last season and that may turn out to be a key factor over an extended season during which Chelsea will compete on multiple trophy fronts. 

Season’s narrative – If Chelsea is winning – isn’t it Ancelotti’s use of the English language endearing? If they don’t – the players can’t understand the manager.

Prediction – 4th


Stoke City
Past performances (12th)

Rear View Mirror – Stoke scored 28 of their 38 goals in the second half last season and their most popular time to strike was between the 70th and 75th minutes when they scored seven times.

Top scorer last season – Ricardo Fuller 11

Front door – Dean Whitehead

Back door – Vincent Pericard, Seyi Olofinjana

Win the title? – 3,000/1

Fire the Manager! – Tony Pulis 20/1

Synopsis – Rory Delap, a living icon. It is the Irishman’s side line projectiles that were the defining image of Stoke’s first season back in the English top flight for close to a quarter of a century.

But by focusing on Delap’s throws to the exclusion of everything else does Stoke and their manager Tony Pulis a massive disservice. True, Pulis put together a powerful and often intimidating team (fans in the Britannia Stadium also played a part) that was geared to make life as uncomfortable as possible for the opposition.

But Stoke also played some good, focused football throughout the season. This wasn’t route one football (apart from the throws) but a team that could be the ball wide and deliver crosses into the box.  Pulis also pulled off one of the best signings of the winter transfer window with the acquisition of James Beattie from Sheffield United.

There is nothing to indicate – nor should there be – that Stoke will approach this season any differently or with any less relish and appetite. Certainly the other 19 Premier League teams will know what to expect this season but that doesn’t mean that they will all be better equipped to deal with it.

A 12th place finish was perhaps a wee bit flattering last season and we might just see the Potters slip a position or two.

Season’s narrative – No team likes going to play at the Britannia Stadium.

Prediction – 14th

Thursday – Arsenal, Wigan, Manchester City, Portsmouth

 

TUESDAY – Blackburn, Everton, Hull, Aston Villa

Blackburn
Past performances (15th, 15th, 6th, 10th, 7th, 15th)

Rear View Mirror – during the 08/09 season Blackburn conceded eight league goals in stoppage time – the highest number of any team.

Top scorer last season – Benny McCarthy 10

Front door – Lars Jacobsen, Gael Givet, Franco Di Santo (loan), Nikola Kalinic

Back door – Roque Santa Cruz, Matt Derbyshire, Aaron Mokoena, Keith Treacy (loan)

Win the title? – 1,500/1

Fire the Manager! – Sam Allardyce 25/1

Synopsis – Just over a year ago Blackburn fans were revolting – revolting that is at the thought of Sam Allardyce taking over after Mark Hughes’ departure for Eastlands. But by the end of last season few would have quibbled at the suggestion that without Allardyce Blackburn would now be preparing for their second Coca Cola Championship game of the season.

Fearing a backlash from fans the Blackburn board opted initially for the media favoured but largely inexperienced Paul Ince. However, when things turned dire the board jettisoned the former England international and quickly opted for the battle-scarred Allardyce.

Nowhere was the improvement under Allardyce more apparent than in defense. A backline that had been leaking goals at a rate of almost two a game tightened up considerably giving up 26 over the remaining 21 games – even more impressive considering that 11 of the goals came in just three games against Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City.

With an improved defense came more points with the club averaging a relatively healthy 1.33 points per game under Sam.  Allardyce’s time at Bolton was marked by a combination of creating a system in which players with limited qualities could excel while dropping in a player or two who could produce a magic moment.

Acquisitions such as Lars Jacobsen and Gael Givet might fall under the former while Franco Di Santo on loan from Chelsea and Nikola Kalinic might be the latter. Kalinic in particular could turn out to be a steal at $9M.

There is no reason to think that Blackburn will return to their gift-giving ways of early last season and relegation should not be a word uttered in the vicinity of Ewood Park.  

Season’s narrative – Not pretty but pretty effective.

Prediction – 11th

Everton
Past performances (17th, 4th, 11th, 6th, 5th, 5th)

Rear View Mirror – In an injury plagued season Everton’s resilience generated widespread respect for the team and the manager David Moyes.

Top scorer last season – Marouane Fellaini & Tim Cahill 8 each

Front door – Jo (loan)

Back door – Lars Jacobsen, Nuno Valente, Andy van der Meyde

Win the title? – 150/1

Fire the Manager! – David Moyes 25/1

Synopsis – Everton fans must just be hoping that they can get through the season without a repeat of the injury pandemic that hit last season – Joleon Lescott sticking around will likely be a close second. If both come to pass then there is every reason to expect Everton to stick in the top six.

Over the last seasons there have been relatively few changes to the Everton squad. Marouane Fellaini was the only significant signing in the summer of 2008 and that came close to the transfer deadline. In the Premier League stand pat is often assumed to be equivalent to reverse gear but David Moyes’ has shown that it not always the case.

It may be the same again this summer with Manchester City’s Jo the Brazilian striker coming to Goodison on loan the only move of significance so far. Jo played like a striker reborn after a February switch and he notched five goals in 11 Premier League games for Everton.

Moyes would love to have the Brazilian on the Everton books but the price is beyond reach so a loan deal is the best that can be done at present. (Could a Lescott for Jo deal get both sides happy?)

Season’s narrative – Team spirit and managerial guile over deep pockets?

Prediction – 5th


Hull City
Past performances (17th)

Rear View Mirror – Hull only collected 14 points at the KC stadium last campaign – the next lowest home total was Sunderland with 21 points.

Top scorer last season – Geovanni 8

Front door – Steven Mouyokolo, Seyi Olofinjana, Jozy Altidore (loan)

Back door – Sam Ricketts, Dean Windass

Win the title? – 4,000/1

Fire the Manager! – Phil Brown 7/1

Synopsis – Hull was very much the story of the first half of last season’s Premier League and played a prominent role in the closing stages as well – however, the reasons were diametrically different.

While a thundering start saw predictions of European football coming to KC Stadium from some the last third of the season was taken up with Premier League survival. It came down to the last day and in the end Newcastle’s loss to Aston Villa sealed the fate of Newcastle, Hull and Sunderland. Newcastle was relegated and the other two survived to fight another season.

Perhaps if January signing Jimmy Bullard had not been laid low through injury Hull might have stemmed their slide down the table. As it was Bullard cost around $7.5M but only made one appearance as a substitute before re-injuring a knee that he had dislocated while with Fulham.

If the Bullard episode was exasperating for manager Phil Brown then the past few months must have been just as frustrating after numerous attempts to strengthen his squad have been knocked by other clubs or players showing little interest in moving north.

Season’s narrative – How will Hull start compared to the opening ten games last season?

Prediction – 19th


Aston Villa
Past performances (6th, 10th, 16th, 11th, 6th, 6th)

Rear View Mirror – The opposition was kind to Aston Villa last season - Arsenal, Hull, West Ham, West Brom, Bolton and Newcastle all helped their cause with own goals.  

Top scorer last season – Gabriel Agbonlahor 12

Front door – Stewart Downing, Habib Beye, Fabian Delph

Back door – Gareth Barry, Stuart Taylor, Zat Knight, and Martin Laursen (retired)

Win the title? – 150/1

Fire the Manager! – Martin O’Neill 33/1

Synopsis – Martin O’Neill has always had a penchant for central defenders and so with two of the centre back union dropping by the wayside since last season and no replacement brother signed you can be almost certain that Villa will dip into the transfer market once more.

Of the two centre backs to leave, Martin Laursen is the one that will be sorely missed. A lion at the heart of the Villa defense the big Dane was forced to retire due to a knee problem. He may not have been the most elegant of players but his spirit and determination was beyond reproach at both ends of the field. Can Carlos Cuellar step into the void?

Long serving defender turned midfielder (and former captain) Gareth Barry has also departed which also leaves a hole in the middle of the park but calls into question the balance of the side. Barry’s left foot somewhat made-up for O’Neill’s decision to play a very right-footed Luke Young at left back for a good part of last season.

The signing of full back Habib Beye last week might indicate that Villa management is willing to persevere with a right footed left back. (Wilfred Bouma missed almost all of last season through injury could also comeback into the picture). The fact that Ashley Young – another predominantly right footed player – is normally stationed on the left side only compounds the balance or lack there-of.  

The signing of Stewart Downing from Boro should have compensated for Barry’s departure (even though Downing has normally played in a similar position to Young) but the England international will likely miss the first few months of the season.  

Season’s narrative – Can Villa put the slump at the end of last season firmly behind them?

Prediction – 7th

 

<sup>Monday - Fulham, Birmingham, Bolton, Liverpool

Fulham
Past performances (9th, 13th, 12th, 16th, 17th, 7th)

Rear View Mirror - Fulham recorded the most scoreless draws (8) in the Premiership last season.

Top scorer last season – Andrew Johnson & Clint Dempsey 7

Front door – Stephen Kelly, Bjorn Helge Riise

Back door – Moritz Volz, Julian Gray

Win the title? – 1,000/1

Fire the Manager! – Roy Hodgson 20/1

Synopsis – After a couple of years of generally poor performances Craven Cottage once again became a secure home base for operations and based on last season the only way that Fulham can improve is to either grab some silverware or break into the top four.

Defense was a key for Fulham but Roy Hodgson proved that being strong defensively doesn’t mean attractive football has to be sacrificed. While goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer and centre back Brede Hangeland received the kudos last season the truth was that Fulham owed their strong defensive record to a team ethos.

The Cottages rarely looked stretched and it was unusual to see a Fulham player having to make a tackle without a team mate in close proximity to support.

If Fulham is to improve then performances away from home will have to pick up. Three wins, three draws and only eleven goals scored leaves significant room for improvement. Manager Roy Hodgson squeezed maximum effort from the small squad he used last season and as long as the injuries can be avoided then there is no reason to believe that he is going to change his MO.

Season’s narrative – Can a thin squad make headway in Europe while at least maintaining last season’s lofty league position?

Prediction – 9th


Birmingham
Past performances (Promoted)

Rear View Mirror – Birmingham needed a win on the final day of the season away to promotion rivals Reading to secure automatic promotion.

Top scorer last season – Kevin Phillips 14

Front door –Christian Benitez, Scott Dann, Joe Hart (loan), Lee Bowyer, Roger Johnson, Barry Ferguson    

Back door – Stephen Kelly

Win the title? – 4,000/1    

Fire the Manager! – Alex McLeish 5/1

Synopsis – Birmingham City has been around under a variety of names for well in excess of a century but has only once hoisted a piece of silverware once. That was back in 1963 when they won the League Cup.

Not even the most delusional Brummie supporter can see the collection be added to this season. The mission simply put is to stay in the Premier League.

The squad has a distinct journeyman look to it with a number of players who have bounced between the top two divisions in England.  A look at last season’s stats shows that this is a team that achieved its goal by keeping the opposition from scoring rather than outshooting them.

Only 37 goals against in a grueling 46-game schedule was best in the Championship but even so manager Alex McLeish has seen fit to bring in Cardiff City centre back Roger Johnson. At 26 Johnson should have his best years still to come and may turn out to be as important to Birmingham as Michael Turner was to Hull City last season.

Goals – or lack thereof - at the other end of the field will in all likelihood be the deciding factor for Birmingham. No team in the top ten of the Championship last season scored fewer goals than Birmingham and much will be expected of new signing Christian Benitez from Santos Laguna.

Season’s narrative – Can Birmingham hang on and avoid a third Premier League relegation in five seasons?

Prediction – 20th


Bolton
Past performances (8th, 6th, 8th, 7th, 16th, 13th)
    
Rear View Mirror - Bolton lost 1-0 seven times last season.

Top scorer last season – Kevin Davies 12

Front door – Zat Knight, Sam Ricketts, Sean Davis, Paul Robinson (loan)

Back door –Nobody really

Win the title? – 2,000/1

Fire the Manager! – Gary Megson 16/1

Synopsis – The halcyon days of four consecutive top eight finishes are very much in the past with the avoidance of relegation a more realistic target. It is also the case that such a target should be fairly easy to achieve given the number of poor teams that will once again battle away at the bottom of the table.

Last season Bolton only lost four out of 18 games against bottom half teams and a repeat performance will go a long way to securing Premier League safety.

However, there is one caveat. Bolton finished poorly last season with only a single win in their last 11 games and a poor start might sap confidence more quickly than otherwise might be the case.

Megson’s signings might be best described as ranging from “interesting” to sensible. Zat Knight is not a reliable Premier League centre back for a 38-game schedule but he can raise his game over short bursts. Other times he tends to go walk about. Megson will earn his pay cheque if he can correctly guess which is which and match it to his team selection.

Paul Robinson is a player who is not quite good enough to hold down a regular starting spot in the Premier Lea</sup>