Scotland fans are well use to failures at World Cups. But as of last night Scotland has now taken it to a different level. Scotland's last second loss to Costa Rica meant that not only are they heading home across the Atlantic but they also reduced the host country Canada's chances of moving into the last sixteen. You invite someone to your party and they  "water" your living room carpet!!

Yesterday was not a good day for the host nation as the options for qualifying for the knock stages eroded as the day went on. Prior to group B action the best scenario for Canada was this.

What Canada needs to do to definitely move on.
Must win (against Congo) and...
Hope Scotland and Costa Rica draw or.....
Zambia and Jordan don't win.

But Zambia did win.

 
And so before Group F action it had been reduced to -
Update - What Canada must do to move on.
1. Must beat Congo and...
2. Hope Scotland and Costa Rica draw or if Scotland or Costa Rica win.....
3. Canada must then win by enough goals to finish with a better record than the other countries that finish third with three points.

But Costa Rica did win and so we are down to essentially two games that will decide Canada's fate.

First of all here is a recap of the process to decide the four best place finishers from FIFA.com.
"The four best place finishers will be determined by; most points gained in group matches, goal difference in all group matches, most goals scored in all group matches, fair play system in which the number of yellow and red cards are evaluated, drawing of lots".

So applying the tie breaker rule we know that after yesterday's games that North Korea is definitely going home (only two points) while Brazil (3 points and a minus 1 goal differential but have scored 2 more goals than Costa Rica) is moving on. Zambia's win pushed Uruguay into third place but with four points they make it to the last sixteen with at least a point to spare.

So that leaves two of four spots for the best third place finishers left to fill. The teams that are left to fight it out are Portugal, Gambia, New Zealand, Canada, Congo and Costa Rica.

As they say in golf, Costa Rica is in the club house and they have set the bar (or is it they are sitting at the bar?). Here is each of the team's positions.

Team                      P     Pts.  GD    GS
Costa Rica            3       3       -1       2

Portugal            2     3     +1     3
Gambia             2     3      -2     1
New Zealand      2     0      -3     0
Congo               2     1      -3     1
Canada             2     0      -4     0

Although on paper New Zealand is still in with a chance they are at a severe disadvantage. They are the only country left that could win today (against Mexico) and still finish bottom of their group. Because Portugal plays Gambia and Congo plays Canada a win for any of these countries means that they are guaranteed to finish no lower than third.
So we are going to discount the chance that the Kiwis and fate can conspire to produce an unprecedented set of results and focus on the other four.

Portugal is clearly in the best position to move on and can afford to lose 2-0 to Gambia and still qualify because of goals scored. If Gambia can score the first goal then Portugal might be more inclined to cruise rather than chasing a game and possibly being hit on the break and losing heavily.

That's an advantage to Gambia but conversely they sit in a rather precarious position because of their goal differential of -2. Canada and Costa Rica especially will be hoping that Portugal can win. That scenario would put Costa Rica through. Canada would also then move on if they beat Congo (by any score) and Gambia lost by two goals to Portugal.  A two goal win for Portugal is clearly the best case scenario for Canada.

If Portugal only wins by one goal then Canada should be hoping that Gambia is shut out in the process. A high scoring one goal win for Portugal would require Canada to exceed Portugal's high scoring one goal of a difference win or beat Congo by two clear goals. If Portugal scores first then Gambia will have nothing to lose by piling forward. 

Unfortunately for Canada there is one more possibility which may actually be the most likely outcome of the Portugal and Gambia match-up. A draw would mean that the group positions would stay as they are and both Gambia and Portugal would move on. That would leave Canada needing a three goal win to move on at the expense of Costa Rica.

No matter the outcome of the late afternoon games we know that when Congo and Canada kick's off tonight both countries will know what is required. In the case of Congo they know already. A win puts them through to the last sixteen - with the possibility that they could still finish second in the group. A draw does neither country any good and so if we get an early first goal then the other side is going to be forced forward which could mean a lot more opportunities at both ends. The first goal in any game is critical but even more so tonight.

Latest Betting on today's games

Canada 2/1, Draw 11/5, Congo 11/10.

New Zealand 10/1, Draw 9/2, Mexico 2/11.

Portugal 4/5, Draw 7/4, Gambia 4/1. (I like the odds on a win by Gambia)

FIFA Under-20 World Cup Champion

Argentina 3/1, Mexico 4/1, Spain 7/1, USA 8/1, Portugal 9/1, Nigeria 10/1, Uruguay 11/1, Brazil 11/1, Chile 12/1, Japan 14/1, Czech Republic 20/1, Poland 33/1, Zambia 50/1, Austria 50/1, Costa Rica 125/1, Congo 200/1, Gambia 200/1, Canada 300/1, New Zealand 500/1.

Has there ever been a time when you could get odds of 11/1 on Brazil in a men's international tournament at the last sixteen stage?

You can send any information (fsr@mts.net) that you think might be of interest about the twenty-four countries and I will post a regular selection. If you have a FIFA Under-20 blog go ahead and post your link under comments.You can also check out the National Post blog.