You know, I’ve tried to write this post like 6 times, and every time I just stall at the beginning and give it up. Maybe I’ll actually get it written this time.

Anyway, we’ve hit the half way point of the NBA season. It’s time to look back at what we’ve learned, as well as look forward to what we can expect from the rest of the season. With that in mind, lets take a look at some of the teams that I really missed on.

Memphis Grizzlies
Wow, did I miss on these guys or what? Strangely enough, a lot of what I thought would happen with them did happen. Rudy #### really blossomed in his second year, becoming a potent scorer, J.C. Navarro has been one of the best rookies in the league and has had some truly spectacular shooting performances, and Mike Conley has played very well since returning from injury. They’re actually a decent offensive team. However, where I was wrong was thinking that they would be an improved defensive team. #### hasn’t been much of a defender, even though he has all the tools for it, Kyle Lowry isn’t having nearly as much impact as last year, and most importantly, Darko has been absolutely terrible. One reason I liked them so much was because an even slightly improved Darko would give them a much-needed shot-blocking presence in the back of their defense. Instead, Darko has, amazingly, been much, much worse than he was in Orlando last year. Of course, I also though 42 or 43 wins would get you into the playoffs out West, and that doesn’t appear to be the case at this point. Oh well, they’ll at least put themselves in good position to get Mike Beasley or DeAndre Jordan in the draft.

Chicago Bulls
I, like everyone else, have been pretty stunned by the poor performance of the Bulls. Now, to some extent we probably should’ve been able to see this coming. All the talk about a Kobe trade obviously had an effect on the young guys on this team. It was also painfully obvious that Ben Wallace was declining rapidly as a player. However, there’s no way that anyone could’ve predicted the inexplicably bad play of the Bulls’ young core players. To have one young guy regress when he should be improving is one thing, but for five guys under the age of 27? It’s absolutely incredible. Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon and Thomas are all having worse seasons than last year. We’re not just talking about slightly worse either, we’re talking about them being significantly less productive. 7 of the top 8 guys on the team (with Joe Smith as the exception) are shooting worse than they were last season. It’s absolutely mind-blowing how the young Bulls have regressed. I think we’re going to see the Bulls in the playoffs at the end of this season 1) because they’re in the East, and as bad as they’ve been they’re only a game behind the Pacers for the last playoff spot right now, but also because 2) it’s absolutely unheard of for a team full of young players to take a huge step backwards like this, and I think they’ll bounce back some and be respectable by season’s end.

Portland Trailblazers
I actually kind of thought Portland would be better than most people thought they would, but I never thought they’d have this kind of success. The biggest shocker to me has been the extraordinary play of Brandon Roy. I’ll be honest, I thought Roy was a really good player when Portland drafted him, and I thought he’d make a few All-Star teams and be a really good player, but I never thought he’d be this good, this fast. He has become the unquestioned leader of the team that has the best chemistry in the league. He does all the little things and he’s a big-time clutch player, making big shots, big defensive stops and getting big rebounds. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player with a better hesitation move than Roy, he reminds me a bit of Nash in the way that he always looks like he’s completely under control. Of course, the other big reason for the Blazers’ success has been the brilliant coaching of Nate McMillan. This Blazers team has great chemistry, they run their offensive sets really well, and they use zone defenses as well as any team in the league. That’s great coaching, McMillan has got this young team executing and believing in themselves.

Those are the teams that have really surprised this year, but we’ve also learned a lot this season about the league’s elite teams. With that in mind, I’m taking another look at my list of potential contenders and cutting it down to size a bit.

My list from the preseason looked like this (in no particular order): Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Jazz, Celtics, Nuggets, Bulls, Suns

My list now (again, in no particular order): Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers

So, why did I drop the teams I did?

Bulls are obvious, I’m not going to go over them

Jazz
They can’t defend the post at all, and I can’t bring myself to pick them in a conference with Duncan, STAT, Yao, Dirk, and now Bynum. You have to defend the post, and they can’t.

Mavs
Gone unnoticed by basically everyone is the fact that the Mavs’ defense has not been good this year. This team was 2nd in the league on offense and 5th on defense last year, this year they’re 2nd on offense and 18th on defense. Add that to their playoff failures the last two years and this team screams “paper tiger” to me.

Suns
Hardest drop from the list for me. I love Nash and I think this team is tremendously talented. However, they’re a worse defensive team than last year, and they aren’t going to win a title that way. Amare continues to be a weakness defensively in the post, and Brian Skinner brings defense, but he doesn’t have any offensive skills. Kurt Thomas was so great because he could both guard bigs and step out and hit the mid-range jumper, Skinner can’t do that. I hate it, but bad defensive teams don’t win titles.

You’ll notice a common theme on why I didn’t pick any of the previous teams. To put the importance of defense in perspective, there have only been 2 teams in the modern era who have won a title without a top 10 defense, and they were the ‘95 Rockets and the ’01 Lakers (who don’t even really count because they played great defense the year before and the year after and during the playoffs with essentially the same team, and obviously didn’t care about the regular season this year). Moral of the story is that defense is really important.

You may also be wondering why the Hornets didn’t make the list. Simply put, they don’t have a bench. I would take their starting five against any other starting unit in the league, but they don’t have the depth or the experience to make a deep run, especially not if anyone (read: Peja) gets hurt. I love the team, I love Chris Paul, they’re a great story, but I don’t think this is their year.

So, why the teams that I did pick?

I’m not going over the Spurs and Celtics, you all know why they’re on that list.

Nuggets
They have two possible starters who are out indefinitely with injury (Nene and Chucky Atkins), Carmelo’s production and efficiency is down significantly from his past two seasons, and they have a serious lack of three-point shooting. Still, they’re 25-16 and first in their division. The reason is because Allen Iverson has fully embraced being a co-star with Melo and is having the most efficient season of his career, and because Marcus Camby takes this team from being a very bad defensive team to being a very good defensive team. If Atkins comes back healthy or they can add one more shooter through a trade, I think this becomes a very dangerous offensive team as well as a good defensive team, and that makes them a contender.

Rockets
They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system. As I wrote back when I blogged the season-opener between LA and Houston, McGrady dominating the ball so much absolutely kills this offense, and they often look significantly better without him on the court. However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing.

Pistons
I left them off in the preseason because I thought they were missing the tough, killer-instinct, underdog mentality that fueled their last title run. What I didn’t count on was the Celtics getting off to a historical start and really lighting a fire under the Pistons to prove that they were the best team in the East. I honestly think that Boston’s great start had a positive impact on the Pistons, that it lit a fire under them that they didn’t have last year when LeBron trampled all over them in the playoffs. They’re also getting fantastic bench production and they execute and exploit weak defenders as well as any team in the league. I still don’t think they could beat the Spurs, but I think they could beat another team from the West if San Antonio doesn’t make the finals

Lakers
This one comes with a caveat. I reserve the right to dismiss this if the post-injury Bynum we get isn’t the same as pre-injury Bynum. LA has been a MUCH better defensive team this year because Bynum has been on the floor more, has become far less foul-prone, and has rebounded a lot better than last year. The bench and the contributions of Derek Fisher have been great, but Bynum is the key. He isn’t an elite player yet by any means, but he has great hands and finishes well on offense, and he improves their defense exponentially. If he comes back playing as well as early on this season, the Lakers are a long-shot contender.

Well, this post has run on long enough, and I’m sure you’re all tired of my wordiness. The last thing I’ll leave you with is my MVP pick for the first half of the season.

MVP: LeBron James
 With all due respect to Kevin Garnett’s fantastic work in Boston and Kobe’s exceptional play and leadership (who ‘da thunk it?), this isn’t even close. Yes, I know about Boston’s 33-7 record and how KG has gotten everyone playing great defense. I repeat, the MVP race is NOT EVEN CLOSE. Lebron uses more of his team’s possessions than anyone outside of DWade, and his offensive rating this year is 12 points higher than Flash! He averages 30-8-7 with 2 steals and a block, and he shoots almost 50%. Lebron’s AST% (an estimate of the percentage of his teammates’ field goals his assists while on the court) is 6th in the league. 6th! He’s one percentage point behind Deron Williams! It’s not quite MJ numbers that we’re talking about here, but we’re getting close. LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs. He’s the MVP, Period.

Alright, that’s it for me, I finally got this post cranked out. I’ll be sharing my opinions on the All-Star team next post, which should be pretty soon, so keep a look out for that.

Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Utah Jazz

Coach: Jerry Sloan
2006-2007 Record: 51-31
06-07 Expected Record: 48-34
Offensive Rating: 109.8 (3rd in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 107.3 (18th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 50.2% (11th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 91.6 (15th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

The improvement of Williams was one of the big reasons for Utah's successful season. After a fairly poor rookie season, He blew up last year, taking less jumpshots and driving to the rim more, leading to higher shooting percentages and more trips to the free throw line. Most noticeably, he seemed to adjust to the speed of the game, and his assist ratio went through the roof. He still needs to improve his defense, but he's one of league's most promising young guards.

I'll be honest, I underrated Boozer. He's a phenomenal post scorer and a really underrated rebounder. He's got a great fallaway jumper that absolutely killed Houston in the playoffs last year cause he kept arcing in rainbow shots over Yao. He's not ever going to be a dominant defender because he's just not a shotblocker, but he makes a huge impact on the boards. 

Okur is very much your prototypical European big man. He's an excellent shooter who has great range, and he's a very skilled offensive player. On the flip side, he's not a particularly strong rebounder or defensive force.

I've always liked Matt Harpring. He's a gritty player who does an excellent job of rebounding from the SF spot, and he's a good shooter. He's very much a Jerry Sloan type of player, but he's entering his 10th season and has an injured knee going into the season, so we'll probably be seeing a drop in his minutes and his production.

Paul Millsap is a perfect example o####uy who goes way later in the draft than he should have because he's a bit undersized. The guy is an absolute monster on the glass, especially on the offensive end where he gets almost half his rebounds. He needs to improve on taking care of the ball and avoiding fouls (he averaged 6.4 PF per 40 minutes), but those are common problems for young posts. He's a great backup PF.

The situation at SG will be key for Utah. Giricek is not a very good starter; he's a really, really bad defender and doesn't do much on offense beside shoot spot-up jumpers. Brewer is the big hope for Utah. He's a very athletic guard/forward who can bring a dynamic, slashing element that the Jazz have lacked for the last few years. He's on everybody's short list for Most Improved Player, but if he wants to really help the Jazz improve he's going to have to improve as a spot-up shooter. The classic Jerry Sloan pick and roll system requires having good shooters ready for kickouts, and if Brewer can shoot a decent percentage from outside he'll have a great shot at that MIP award. One guy who won't have a problem shooting is Morris Almond, who was drafted because of his pure shooting stroke. He's a very smart player who has a great midrange game in addition to his long-range shot. He's not nearly the defender or dynamic offensive presence that Brewer is, but he's a great shooter who could benefit from the Jazz's system.

People have gotten really excited about Kyrylo Fesenko because he looked great in the summer league. He's a project, he won't be a factor for at least a year or two, and even then he's far from a sure thing. Summer league means nothing, I have to keep reminding people of this.

X-Factor: Andrei Kirilenko - First of all, AK-47 is the best nickname in basketball, I will hear no argument for this. Make no mistake, Kirilenko is a VERY talented player. He's the rare player who can make a defensive impact all over the floor (right now, only AK, the Matrix, Josh Smith, and Gerald Wallace really do this). He was terribly frustrated last year with the role he was asked to play in the offense, but the Jazz have to find a way to keep him happy, because he's the difference between them being a very good team and an elite team. They don't have any interior players who are going to scare you as a shotblocking presence, but when Kirilenko is at his best, he can be that kind of player. The Jazz are going to be a good offensive team, but their improvement as a defensive team will be contingent on how Jerry Sloan handles Kirilenko's unique talents.

Overview

The Jazz are an excellent offensive team, if slightly unconventional. Most of their offensive effectiveness comes from the fact that they're the league's best offensive rebounding team and they get to the line a lot. A lot of that comes from Millsap and Boozer, but Harpring and Kirilenko are also big factors on the class from the small forward position. Defensively, their big problem was foul trouble. No team in the league sent their opponents to the line as frequently as Utah did, and that really hurt what would otherwise have been a fairly decent defensive team. The glaring hole in the Jazz defense is that they don't have a true shotblocker on the roster outside of Kirilenko, who had the worst year of his career last year. They're very vulnerable to elite post players who can make them pay on the low block (despite winning the series, they weren't very effective at guarding Yao, and Duncan went to town on them for most of that series). Overall though, it was a breakthrough year for the Jazz, who got a healthy season from Boozer and a breakout year from Williams.

Prediction

The Jazz are very good, and they should be even better if Brewer can step into the starting lineup and be a factor offensively (he'll be much better defensively than Giricek). However, the problem is that this team has the same essential weakness as last year's team, they're vulnerable in the post. In a conference that includes Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, and Amare Stoudemire on 3 of the top teams in the league, you just can't get by with bad post defense unless you're an outstanding offensive team. Phoenix has struggled with the same problem for the last few years, and they're a much better offensive team than the Jazz are. The Jazz will again have a solid regular season, and it isn't out of the realm of possibility for them to improve enough to contend for the title, especially if Kirilenko is given more liberty to roam on defense, but ultimately I still don't think they're there yet.

6th in the West - Championship Contenders

 

I really didn't start watching the NBA with any regularity until the '01 playoffs. I fell in love with the Sixers and AI after watching them gut through game after game to reach the finals. They were the ultimate underdog, ####ed up and facing a Lakers team that was steamrolling people. After that first game, there was even some glimmer of hope that they might pull it out. Alas, it was not to be, as the Shaq-Kobe dynasty quickly pounded my Sixers into the dust. On the way, in addition to acquiring a hatred for the Lakers, I began to really dislike Derek Fisher. Not as much as I disliked Shaq, mind you, but I hated the way he could seem to do nothing the whole game and then always be in place to hit the crucial 3-pointer when the ball was kicked out to him. He was invisible for long stretches, and then he would just appear and hit the back-breaking three.  If that weren't enough, a few years later I was following the Spurs run through the playoffs as they tried to repeat. Having always been a Tim Duncan fan, I was somewhat of a casual San Antonio fan, and I definitely still hated the Lakers. Well, there the two of them were. Game 5. The Spurs about to seal the game, and probably the series. You all know the story, Duncan hits a miracle fadeaway with .4 seconds left, and everybody in San Antonio starts celebrating. It was as over as a 1 possession game can get, there was no way the Lakers would win, and yet in .4 seconds, a rainbow jumper said otherwise. Man, I hated Derek Fisher.

Fast forward to now, and my opinion of the man has totally changed. Fisher's greatest legacy is no longer going to be that of a role player on 3 championship teams, it's going to be as a class act and amazing human being. If you have been living under a rock and haven't heard his story yet, Fisher's 10-month-old daughter was diagnosed with retinoblastoma, a rare form of cancer behind the eye. He missed a few games of the playoffs and was late for a few more because he had to help care for his daughter. It's an amazing reminder that these athlete's aren't superhuman, they're people who deal with sickness and pain just like the rest of us, something we too often forget.

We all cheered for Fisher when he came in to the third quarter of game 2 of the Warriors series, when he hit his 1 shot of the game without any warm up (it was a game-clinching 3, of course)."
What a hero," we said, "what courage". Well, now Fisher has done something even more heroic, if somewhat less iconic. Monday, Fisher was released from his contract with the Jazz so that he and his family can move to a city with the right specialists to care for his daughter. In this free agent season where most of the players and agents will be squeezing every penny they can out of teams, Fisher has given up the dollars in that contract and the game he loves, and it's quite possible he never plays again in the NBA, in order to care for his family in the best way possible. We can only hope that the next generation of sports stars can learn a little something from a man who is truly worth emulating. A tip of the cap to Derek Fisher, a class act and a courageous man. Our hearts and our prayers go out to you and your family.

"Life for me outweighs the game of basketball"
-Derek Fisher 

 

The long-awaited draft is over, so now its time to take a look at the results. It was actually a rather subdued draft until we got to the 18th pick or so, with the only real surprise being the Ray Allen trade. After that, things started going all kinds of crazy as Portland began to wheel and deal. Anyway, here's my team-by-team analysis of the draft. It's not grades, cause I don't like grades (btw, if we were to give teams a GPA based on their draft grades over time, what would Atlanta's be? 1.5? 2?). I'm going to give either a thumbs up, thumbs down, or on the fence for each team. So, starting with the Western Conference...

Dallas Mavericks - Thumbs Down

Picks - Nick Fazekas (34), Renaldas Seibutis (50), Milovan Rakovic (60)

Now, I understand that Dallas didn't have a lot to work with here, but they didn't exactly make the most of it. I'll give them the last two, cause there's not that much talent that late, but they took Fazekas, who is quite possibly the worst athlete in the draft, in front of Glen Davis and Josh McRoberts, both much better talents. I don't see Fazekas being any kind of player in the NBA, he's just too slow, and slow big guys whose trademark is their shooting don't have a great track record.

Denver Nuggets - N/A

Picks - ...

Well, that was easy

Golden State Warriors - Thumbs Up

Picks - Brandan Wright (8), Marco Belinelli (18), Stephane Lasme (46)

Big thumbs up to the Warriors, who had my second favorite draft (behind Portland's masterpiece). Not only did they manage to grab some fantastic talent, but they got rid of Jason Richardson's contract too. I questioned their selection of Bellinelli instead of Jason Smith, but it makes sense with the acquisition of Wright. Take note that there's still a possibility that Yi will end up here for a package including Wright, though Milwaukee looks like they want to keep him. Wright is a perfect player for them. He has very little range to his game, but he's money near the hoop and he's a very good shot-blocker. At worst, he's a much more talented and athletic version of Andris Biedrins. Bellinelli is a dynamic 2-guard who has great range and can slash, but he's streaky (which should mean he fits in perfectly here). Lasme was one of my favorite second round guys, and I can see him contributing immediately as an energy/defense guy for the Warriors. Very good draft.

Houston Rockets - Thumbs Down

Picks - Aaron Brooks (26), Carl Landry (31), Brad Newley (54)

I really don't get their draft. They had McRoberts and Davis staring them in the face at both 26 and 31, and they passed them both times for inferior players. Brooks was a solid sleeper, but that's only a good pick if you don't reach for it, and they reached big-time for him. What's more puzzling is that they didn't even reach for a need, they've already got Mike James and Rafer Alston at the point and a gaping hole at PF. Landry is a gritty player, but he's undersized and can't rebound. McRoberts would've been perfect here, I'm really puzzled that they passed on him.

L.A. Clippers - Thumbs Up

Picks - Al Thornton (14), Jared Jordan (45)

The Clippers basically just sat back and took the best value that was available, and they ended up with 2 really good players who are both good fits. Thornton allows them to put the disgruntled Corey Maggette on the trading block. He's a terrific athlete, and I've been saying all along he's the second coming of Shawn Marion. He was easily the best value available for them. Jordan is a pure point who should be able to back up Sam Cassell right away. His ceiling as a player isn't very high, but he's a smart guy who should be able to carve out a niche in the league. I would've gone with Taurean Green there, but I can't fault them for taking Jordan.

L.A. Lakers - Thumbs Down

Picks - Javaris Crittenton (19), Sun Yue (40), Marc Gasol (48)

This rating is contingent on them keeping Kobe Bryant, which they have repeatedly said that they want to do. Were the Lakers set on building for the future, I would be ok with the Crittenton pick. He's the ultimate high-reward point guard prospect, with a good shooting touch, suberb athleticism, and a 6'5 frame. However, he's at least 2 years away from being able to run a team, and I doubt he'll contribute much next year. I'm not sold on Yue. From what I saw of him, he's not a great athlete and he didn't really impress me that much. They did get a steal in Gasol, who most mocks had up at the top of the second round.

Memphis Grizzlies - Thumbs Up

Picks - Mike Conley (4)

Not much to say about this. They took Conley, who was the best point guard in the draft and, in my opinion, the best player on the board at #4. He got better and better as the year went on last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a big contributor this year for Memphis. He's impossibly quick and has tremendous floor vision. Absolutely the right pick for the Griz.

Minnesota Timberwolves - On The Fence

Picks - Corey Brewer (7), Chris Richard (41)

As far as their draft goes, I think they made the right moves. Brewer was the obvious pick when he fell into their laps at #7, and Richard is a great value in the second round, he would be a first rounder if he'd played anywhere but Florida. However, I can't help but feel like the Timberwolves wasted their best chance to rebuild by not getting a KG deal done. They were adamant about what they wanted in return for him, and as a result of that they miss the chance to grab draft picks in the deepest draft in recent memory. I'm fine with the picks they made, but what they didn't do with KG devalues this for me.

New Orleans Hornets - Thumbs Up

Picks - Julian Wright (13), Adam Haluska (43)

They get a thumbs up because Wright at #13 is an absolute steal. He could've easily gone 6 picks higher than that. He doesn't fit a need quite as well as Nick Young would've, but there's no question that he was the best talent left on the board. On potential alone, he's probably the 3rd best guy in the draft. He had games at Kansas where he absolutely destroyed the opposing team. If the Hornets can get some consistency out of him, this is a great pick. Haluska was a surprise, as he wasn't really on anyone's radar. Really though, once you get into the last 20 picks, everything is a stretch.

Phoenix Suns - Thumbs Down

Picks - Alando Tucker (29), D. J. Strawberry (59)

Is there anything more depressing than seeing your team trade away a first round pick for cash? Yeah, the Suns have done that 4 straight times. Not only that, but they then took Tucker at 29, who is a PF in a SF's body. Oh yeah, he can't really shoot either. They had McRoberts and Gabe Pruitt sitting there at 29, and they took Alando Tucker instead. Ugh. The Suns have really made some disappointing moves in the last 2-3 years, and it's a shame cause I think their window for winning is closing. They had the chance here to either take players or trade for players who could bolster a championship level team, and they blew it. I do like the D.J. Strawberry pick at 59 though. He'll carve out a spot in the league as a lock-down defender.

Portland Trail Blazers - Thumbs Way Up

Picks - Greg Oden (1), Rudy Fernandez (24), Petteri Koponen (30), Josh McRoberts (37), Taurean Green (52)

Not only did the Blazers make an absolute killing with their picks but they also managed to bring another piece over in the Zach Randolph trade, Channing Frye. This is the best draft I've ever seen a team have. They drafted a franchise center in Oden, they got rid of head-case Randolph and his monster contract and brought in another good young big in Frye, they drafted two lottery-level talents in Fernandez and Koponen who will continue to mature overseas (something they had to do with all the guys they were bringing in with this draft), they got the steal of the draft in McRoberts at 37 (who is a perfect complementary post guy and also a good friend of Oden's), and they picked up Green about 20 spots later than most people had him ranked. That, my friends, is one heck of a draft. Here's the really scary thing about this team. By trading Randolph's contract for Francis's shorter deal, the Blazers made sure that they will be well under the cap in 2 years when guys like Aldridge and Roy start signing extensions. They've done so well building with young talent, and it's entirely possible that they will be able to keep all of it. Can anybody in the league match the young talent on their frontline with Oden, Aldridge, Frye, and McRoberts? This team is ridiculously scary.

Sacramento Kings - Thumbs Down

Picks - Spencer Hawes (10)

It's not that I don't think Hawes is a bad player. He's probably more-or-less the next Brad Miller, and Miller has had a very solid career with a few All-Star games tossed in there. However, with all the rebuilding that Sacramento has to do, they needed a high-ceiling kind of guy, and Hawes isn't it. Julian Wright would've been the much better pick here.

San Antonio Spurs - Thumbs Up

Picks - Tiago Splitter (28), Marcus Williams (33), Giorgos Printezis (58)

It's just not fair sometimes. The best team in the league adds a lottery-level talent who will wait a year before coming over. Splitter was a perfect fit for them, and they'll be reaping the benefits in two years. Williams is a great prospect with a ton of potential, but he never put it together in college. I was a little surprised that they didn't go with Derrik Byars, but if anyone can get Williams to put things together, it's the Spurs.

Seattle Supersonics - Thumbs Up

Picks - Kevin Durant (2), Jeff Green (5)

Big props to Seattle for being gutsy with their moves. Trading Ray Allen wasn't even something I was thinking about, but it makes a lot of sense. The word from Seattle is that they want to try and resign Rashard Lewis and be able to throw Green, Durant, and Lewis out there all at once. It's a remarkable idea, and I think that they could pull it off. There are very few players in the league versatile and athletic enough to run the 2,3,and 4 spots, but these guys could do it. Can you imagine trying to match up with that? Anyway, even if they don't bring Lewis back, Green is a great compliment to Durant. Overlooked in the Allen for Green deal is that they also brought in Delonte West, who is a solid player and should be the starter at the point for them next year.

Utah Jazz - Thumbs Up

Picks - Morris Almond (25), Kyrylo Fesenko (38)

I have no opinion on Fesenko, but Almond was a great pick at 25. He was obviously the best talent left on the board, and he fills the Jazz's need for a perimeter shooter. Considering where they were picking, the Jazz did a solid job.

Just as a final note, is anyone else as excited as I am that Ray Allen and Allen Ray are on the same team? I've been waiting for this since I learned that Villanova was bringing in a freshman named Allen Ray. It's fate, it had to happen, the basketball gods brought it about.

Well, word is that Portland has given Oden the news that he's number one. Not a surprise, but it does take away the extraordinary chance of an upset.

San Antonio Spurs

Roster For 07-08

PG - Tony Parker
SG - Michael Finley, Manu Ginobili, Brent Barry
SF - Bruce Bowen, James White
PF - TIMMMMY!!, Robert Horry
C - Francisco Elson

Picks

1 - 28 (28 overall)
2 - 3 (33 overall)
2 - 28 (28 overall)

It must be great to be the Spurs. They've got the core of their team locked up for the next 3 years, and veteran free agents would kill to be on their team. It's almost unfair for the rest of the league. Remember that they've also got Manu's teammate on the Argentinian National Team and 2-time Spanish League MVP Luis Scola waiting in the wings. If all the Spurs did was resign Jaques Vaughn and Fabricio Oberto (which shouldn't be hard), they'd still have to be the favorites going into next year. In addition to that, they can try to use their mid-level exception to pursue a veteran free agent desperate for a championship (for example, if I were Grant Hill, I would be booking my plane ticket to San Antonio right now). So, who should the Spurs be looking at in the draft? Well, my favorite guy for them is Jared Dudley, at either 28 or 33. People are calling him the Josh Howard of this year's draft, and while I wouldn't go that far, I still think he's being overlooked and he's a perfect fit for the Spurs. Also, don't be surprised if they go for an international guy and store him overseas for a few years.

What They Should Do: Resign Vaughn and Oberto, make an offer for Hill, and draft Dudley.

What They Will Do: They'll do whatever is best. Of any franchise in professional sports, I wouldn't trust any of them more than I would the Spurs. They have a definite plan and they almost always seem to be making the right move.

Seattle Supersonics

Roster For 07-08

PG - Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson
SG - Ray Allen
SF - Damien Wilkeis, Mickael Gelabale
PF - Nick Collison, Chris Wilcox
C - Robert Swift, Saer Sene, Johan Petro

Picks

1 - 2 (2 overall)
2 - 1 (31 overall)
2 - 5 (35 overall)

The Sonics are in luck, even they can't screw this draft up. In the last 3 drafts, they've taken 3 consecutive 7 footers for whom the term "project" is being generous. However, even the Sonics can't screw up taking Kevin Durant. As if that weren't enough, there's more good news for Sonics fans. Apparently Atlanta is very seriously considering trading the number 11 pick for Luke Ridnour. That's not a joke, they're really considering that. Man, I love the Hawks, they're always good for a laugh.

What They Should Do: Take Durant, trade Ridnour for the 11th pick and take Acie Law or Spencer Hawes. In the second round, they can look at Ramon Sessions, Taurean Green, Marc Gasol, and Alando Tucker.

What They Will Do: Even Seattle can't scrrew this draft up, can they?

Toronto Raptors

Roster For 07-08

PG - T.J. Ford, Jose Calderon
SG - Anthony Parker, Juan Dixon
SF - Joey Graham, Carlos Delfino
PF - Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Jorge Garbajosa, Kris Humphries
C - Rasho Nesterovic

Picks

None

I
have liked the Raptors since they drafted Bosh as their franchise cornerstone. This doesn't figure to be a particlarly busy offseason for Toronto though. They don't really have any cap space, nor do they have any draft picks. I'm not even really going to address them, cause they're not really looking like they'll do anything this offseason. That's not a bad thing though, cause they're a young team that is gelling and improving more each year.

Utah Jazz

Roster For 07-08

PG - Deron Williams, Derek Fisher
SG - Gordan Giricek, Ronnie Brewer
SF - Andrei Kirilenko, Matt Harpring
PF - Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap
C - Mehmet Okur, Jarron Collins

Picks

1 - 25 (25 overall)
2 - 25 (55 overall)

Not a whole lot of holes in this Jazz squad. They need to get Ronnie Brewer more minutes next year because, quite frankly, Gordan Giricek might be the worst defender in the league. They really need to trade Kirilenko, but he's got a terrible contract and his value is at an all-time low. At this point, it might be better to just hope he can turn it around next year instead of trading him for way less than what he's worth. At any rate, they need to be looking at someone in the draft who can help back up at the wing position, either SG or SF. The best options for them are probably Marco Bellinelli, Derrick Byars, or Rudy Fernandez.

What They Should Do: Be willing to trade Kirilenko, but don't give him away for nothing. He's still a very solid complementary player with the potential to be very good, and his trade value is very low at this point. Take one of the guys listed at #25.

What They Will Do: They're in the range of teams that might be looking at Daequan Cook, who I think is one of the most overrated prospects in the draft. I can't see him working well with Jerry Sloan, so I hope they avoid him with their first-rounder.

Washington Wizards

Roster For 07-08

PG - Gilbert Arenas, Antonio Daniels
SG - Jarvis Hayes
SF - Caron Butler
PF - Antwan Jamison, Darius Songaila, Etan Thomas
C - Brendan Haywood

Picks

1 - 16 (16 overall)
2 - 17 (47 overall)

Yikes. Well, probably the best thing you can say about this team is that Caron Butler has a good contract. Other than that, there isn't a lot to get excited about. Jamison's contract ends this year, Arenas has said that he'll opt out after next year, and the rest of the roster is filled with overpaid role players who are signed for 3 years. There's not really any young talent outside of Butler and Arenas, and they probably won't be keeping Arenas. Not a whole lot of hope for the future there. There's not a ton they can do about it right now though, and they'll probably still be a contender in the east next year. As far as their draft pick, they could use a wing guy, preferably one with some serious potential. Thaddeus Young fits the bill, and I don't think I've seen a mock draft that doesn't have him going to the Wizards. USC's Nick Young would also be a good option if he's still there.

What They Should Do: Try to get rid of Jamison for some young talent/picks before they lose him to free agency. I doubt they can get rid of him, but it wouldn't hurt to try. Take one of the Youngs with their pick.

What They Will Do: Eh, who knows, this is the same franchise that took Kwame Brown with the #1 pick. It's the NBA, anything could happen.