I've been following the Houston Rockets at a distance this whole season, and I was pretty disappointed in them up until recently. I even considered dropping them from my list of contenders at midseason because they just hadn't played well at all. In fact, here's what I said about them on January 25th, 3 games after McGrady came back:
"They’re the biggest stretch on
the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level
defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy
into Adelman’s system...However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady
easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself
into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they
piddle along for a while before collapsing."
You know, I think 16-1 since McGrady's return might qualify as taking off. So, what's changed in the last few weeks that has Houston playing so well? Like I did a while back with Portland, I'm going to take a look at the Rockets' streak both statistically and what I've seen when I watched them.
The first thing to note is the recent play of McGrady. I've remarked multiple times on how T-Mac's ball domination and constant isolation plays were killing the Rockets' offense. That's changed since McGrady came back from his injury. He's still scoring, but not as much, and he's taking less shots. The drastic difference though is seen in his passing ability, from 4.6 APG in November to 7 APG in January. McGrady's size gives him the ability to see and pass over basically any defender he's faced with, which is deadly in Rick Adelman's offense which features a lot of back-cuts. He's still a great option to have when the clock is running down and he still has those times when he gets hot and carries the team, but more and more he's fitting into the offense and getting his teammates easy looks.
The other big thing that's immediately noticeable is the increased production from the PF spot. Luis Scola has begun to start games and get more minutes and he's doing more with them. He moves so well without the ball and he's finally figuring out Adelman's offense, so he's getting himself easy shots and converting (leading to his 58.9% shooting this month). One of the most surprising developments in the league has been emergence of Carl Landry as a legitimate contributor on a playoff team. I panned the drafting of Landry at the time, but 'm eating my words now. He's ridiculously strong and has great hands, so he finishes almost everything he gets near the rim, and he's a pretty decent mid-range shooter. Most impressive might be the way he has quickly adjusted from being the primary option in college to moving off the ball and finding open space for easy shots. He and Scola both are very good with their spacing, and they're making teams pay for helping off them. What surprises me though is that the increased minutes have come at the expense of Chuck Hayes and the Rockets haven't suffered defensively or rebounding the ball. As a result, they've been a much-improved offensive team while maintaining their solid defense.
So, what do the stats from Houston's streak tell us? Well, most notably they're averaging almost 7 more points per 100 possessions, a huge jump from where they were from the rest of the season. Why are they so much better? Immediately what jumps out are the teams' assist numbers. The Rockets are averaging almost 5 more assists per 100 possessions, and they've assisted on 66% of their made FGs during the streak vs 57.7% for the rest of the year. All that extra ball movement and their turnovers are actually down, averaging 3 less TOs per 100 possessions. That ball movement results in the increased shooting percentages and better offensive efficiency that we see. It certainly looks as though the team is getting adjusted to Adelman's offense.
Defensively, I think Houston might be playing the best defense of any team in the league right now. I'm not sure how many people realize just how good this defense is because it doesn't jump out at you as you watch them. They don't block a ton of shots or force a lot of turnovers, and if you were just watching them play your team you'd probably think your guys just had a bad shooting night. However, if you pay attention to the Rockets, you'd notice that a lot of teams seem to have "bad shooting nights" against them. It's the thing that statistics finds almost impossible to quantify in individual players, the ability to play solid D and force tough shots. Houston has a few guys who are very good at making you take a tough shot over them (Battier, Hayes, Landry), but they also play fantastic help defense, rotating well in pick and roll situations and doing a good job of "helping the helper". Lastly, of course, there's Yao, who has the ability to block or alter shots without leaving his feet, meaning that he doesn't give up rebounding position to make your shot tougher. Put it all together and you've got a really good defensive team.
So what do things look like going forward for the Rockets? Well, first of all they play their next four games at home against Washington, Memphis, Denver and Indiana before they go play at Dallas, so there's a pretty good chance that they run this streak to 16 games. More importantly, this doesn't seem to me like a team that just got hot. This is a team that has genuinely made some huge progress during the season. I think McGrady came back from injury looking to integrate himself in the offense, and that Scola is getting better and better as he adjusts to the NBA game. Combine that with the emergence of Landry and the recent acquisition of Bobby Jackson (who played under Adelman in Sacramento) and you have a deep and talented team that is improving each game. The McGrady injury is looking more and more like a blessing in disguise. It got the rest of the team sharing the ball and moving it around well in order to score, and when McGrady came back he fit in and the role players were better for the experience. Also, that's 11 less games on McGrady's back this season, meaning he should be fresher come playoff time.
To me, few teams are exhibiting the kind of offense/defense balance that Houston is showing right now, and I think they're legitimately one of the top title threats. Obviously there's almost no predicting who comes out of the West this year. However, after seeing how they've begun to play offensively, I feel more comfortable now with saying the Rockets are contenders than I was at the beginning of the season.
I remember reading an article in Sports Illustrated in 2001 that was all about the new generation of players that was changing the face of the playoffs. The group of Vince Carter, Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Tracy Mcgrady, Baron Davis, Kevin Garnett and the rest were entering the peak of their career and promising to give us compelling matchups for the rest of the decade. This was the dynamic group of players who would fill the void left by the Jordan generation, who were all either retired or soon to retire (Barkley, Stockton, Malone, Hardaway, Reggie, Pippen). Fast forward to now. We're on the other side of most of these players' prime years, and between injuries, dissappointing performances, and managerial incompetence, that generation has left us mostly dissappointed. The decade has been dominated by Shaq, the Pistons' team-oriented style, and the one star of this generation who has lived up to his billing, Tim Duncan. As the torch seems to be passing to the next wave of stars (Lebron, Wade, Melo, Parker, Bosh), its time to take a look at where there players stand in the grand scheme of things. What is the historical legacy of this group, which popularized jumping to the pros after 1 year or just straight out of high school.
In 1996, the NBA came out with a list of the 50 greatest players in its history. That was when most of these guys were just starting their careers. Of those 50, only Shaq is still an active player. So, the question is, who from this generation of players deserves a spot on that list? Keep in mind, we're not just talking about who's going to be in the Hall of Fame. We're talking about the best of the best, the guys who you're going to look back on in 20 years and be proud to tell your kids/grandkids, "yeah, I saw him play". The guys we choose have to be good enough to knock one of the guys on that list off. How will this generation be remembered? Who deserves to be called "the greatest"?
There should be absolutely no doubt about this one. He'll go down in history as the best power forward ever, and he's one of the two most dominant players of the decade. He's unarguably one of the top 50, and you can certainly make a case for him being top 10.
Along with Duncan, I think he's the only unarguable inclusion on this list. When taking into account the era that Wilt played in, Kobe might be the greatest pure scorer of all time. Whether you love him or hate him (there seems to be no middle ground), you have to be in awe of his brilliance. The most talented player in the league, bar none.
He will always be remembered for breaking open the HS to pro floodgates and for his landmark contract with the Wolves. The verdict is still out as to whether he will always be remembered as the guy who couldn't quite get it done. Regardless of whether or not Garnett ever does get his ring, he's still proven to be a remarkable basketball player. I'm willing to overlook his playoff struggles in light of his being the most versatile player ever to play the game. He's been stuck on a bad team for the past few years, but it wasn't long ago that we were debating whether he or Duncan was the better player.
I went back and forth on this one because I find it very hard to look at AI's career objectively. He's one of the most prolific scorers of all time, but he's certainly not the most efficient scorer ever to play. He's been criticized for his attitude towards practice and he's been criticized for the amount of shots he takes. However, he's one of the most competitive players in the game and plays completely without fear. To watch Iverson is to watch heart triumph over stature. At the end of the day, his amazing ability to score at a mere 6 feet tall and his playoff run where he nearly single-handedly carried the Sixers to the finals are enough for him to make the list.
On the Brink (likely Hall of Famers, but not top 50)
Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Steve Nash
Dirk Nowitzki
Nowitzki deserves a special note because I think that more than anyone, he has the potential to jump up this list. He's really just entered his prime as a player and has hit a turning point in his career after the first round loss to the Warriors this year. His place in history will be determined by how he responds to the accusations that he's a weak player.
kets' offense. That's changed since McGrady came back from his injury. He's still scoring, but not as much, and he's taking less shots. The drastic difference though is seen in his passing ability, from 4.6 APG in November to 7 APG in January. McGrady's size gives him the ability to see and pass over basically any defender he's faced with, which is deadly in Rick Adelman's offense which features a lot of back-cuts. He's still a great option to have when the clock is running down and he still has those times when he gets hot and carries the team, but more and more he's fitting into the offense and getting his teammates easy looks.
mpressive might be the way he has quickly adjusted from being the primary option in college to moving off the ball and finding open space for easy shots. He and Scola both are very good with their spacing, and they're making teams pay for helping off them. What surprises me though is that the increased minutes have come at the expense of Chuck Hayes and the Rockets haven't suffered defensively or rebounding the ball. As a result, they've been a much-improved offensive team while maintaining their solid defense. 
at a lot of teams seem to have "bad shooting nights" against them. It's the thing that statistics finds almost impossible to quantify in individual players, the ability to play solid D and force tough shots. Houston has a few guys who are very good at making you take a tough shot over them (Battier, Hayes, Landry), but they also play fantastic help defense, rotating well in pick and roll situations and doing a good job of "helping the helper". Lastly, of course, there's Yao, who has the ability to block or alter shots without leaving his feet, meaning that he doesn't give up rebounding position to make your shot tougher. Put it all together and you've got a really good defensive team.
