I've been trying for the last few months to get the nickname "the Hammer" stuck on Dwight Howard, but that's over now. Make no mistake, Dwight Howard is Superman.

We've just gotten the first iconic moment in a career that promises to be full of them. On a night when he actually had two better dunks, the Superman Dunk will be remembered for the way Howard galvanized the crowd and put on display just how freakish an athlete he is. Whatever you think about the dunk/non-dunk (yes, I know he didn't really dunk it), it was a stunning display of athleticism, and it had the rest of the All-Stars going nuts.

In case you missed it guys, the dunk contest is back. The only contests that immediately come to mind as being as good as this one are the original ABA Dr. J vs David "Skywalker" Thompson, MJ vs. Dominique and Vince Carter completely blowing everyone away in 2000.

Jamario Moon and Rudy #### actually had some really quality dunks, but nobody noticed because Green and Howard set the bar so high. Rudy's first dunk  was basically the same as the 2nd dunk that Jordan threw down in that '88 contest, only Rudy finished with just his left hand, and his second dunk was similar to Green's dunk from last year, only with a higher degree of difficulty. Moon's left-handed free throw line dunk was extremely impressive, only he sabotaged himself by setting the tape up. Just think what he might have been able to do if he'd practiced that dunk.

Green's cupcake dunk was mind-blowing and incredibly entertaining, but suffered the same problem that Howard's Sticker Dunk did last year, the judges just couldn't see it properly. Great dunk and great showmanship though, that's one that people will remember for a while. The barefoot dunk was great, but he would've been better off combining that with the lob over the backboard. He suffered from doing two similar dunks back-to-back.

However, the night belonged to Howard, who did things that big men  just aren't supposed to be able to do. For his first dunk, he basically took what Andre Iguadola did, then added an insane degree of difficulty by tossing the ball himself and then finishing with a left-handed windmill. Um...wow. The Superman Dunk was so ridiculous that I can't get over it. To see a guy that big jump that high and then just throw the ball down into the basket...just awesome. He had everybody in the building on their feet in disbelief. His third dunk, to me, was the most impressive. To be able to catch a ball off the bounce with your left hand, tap it off the backboard, then catch it with your right hand and stuff it through is just an awesome display of athleticism and coordination. For a 7-foot center to be able to do that? Unreal. We throw the term "freak" around a lot in sports when describing athleticism, but Dwight Howard truly is a freak. He's like something from another planet...you might even say he's like "The Man of Tomorrow".

Well, I wanted to make this post a while ago, but I've been fighting sickness for the last two weeks, so it's slightly belated. Anyway, I'm gonna give you my All-Star Teams, and explain to you why some of the guys you might expect to be there aren't.

First of all, note that this is not a lifetime achievement award. I do not care what you did last year, nor do I care what you might be expected to do for the rest of the year. Performance is what matters.

Second, while I do consider your team's record, it's not a huge factor to me. I'm not going to penalize you for having crappy teammates.

Finally, I'm going to list some relevant statistics for each player. These are not going to be PPG or RPG statistics, cause frankly those are usually poor measures of performance and you can find them anywhere. Because I'm going to be listing some statistics that some of you might not recognize, I'll give you a quick synopsis of some of them.

eFG (effective field goal percentage) - This is simply field goal percentage, except it gives extra credit for three-pointers.

ORtg (Offensive Rating) - A measure of how efficient an offensive player is. It's a ridiculously complicated formula, but basically it estimates how many points a player creates per every 100 possessions they use.

USG% (Usage %)- The estimated percentage of the team's possessions that a player uses  while they're on the floor. As a general rule, as USG% goes up, ORtg goes down (harder to be efficient the more you're asked to do). Point Guards often have lower USG% (around 20%), whereas high-volume scorers (DWade, LeBron, Kobe, etc.) usually have a USG% of 30% or more.

AST% - An estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals that you assist on while you're on the floor.

TO% - estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions. Anything below 10 is outstanding, over 20% is usually pretty bad.

REB% - An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds that a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

(most statistics courtesy of basketballreference.com)

That said, on to the teams.

xphoenix87's Eastern Conference All-Stars

Starting Lineup

Guard-Chauncey Billups (53.4% eFG, 90.4% FT, 22.5 USG%, 128 ORtg, 34.6 AST%, 12.7 TO%)
One of the steadiest players in the league, and one of the most ruthlessly efficient offensive players out there. He's a nightmare to match up against for most teams because he's so good at backing down opposing point guards and abusing them with short turnaround jumpers or headfaking them into fouling him. Billups was an easy pick.

Guard-Jose Calderon (58.7% eFG, 91.7% FT, 130 ORtg, 44.8 AST%, 13.8 TO%, 5.58 A/T)
I know, he didn't even make the All-Star team, I must be out of my mind to have him as a starter, right? Well, lets look at him versus the actual All-Star starters, Jason Kidd and Dwayne Wade. There's been a lot of hype about Kidd and his near-triple double pace this season, but how about the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.

Forward-LeBron (33.6 USG%, 116 ORtg, 51.3% eFG, 37.8 AST%, 11 TO%, 11.8 REB%)
Any argument that LeBron should be the starter here? Didn't think so, moving on.

Forward-KG (24.2 USG%, 120 ORtg, 55.1% eFG, 17.2 REB%, 20.5 AST%)
More than any statistic, the impact of Garnett is most pronounced in these numbers.

106.9
24

98
38

The first two numbers are Boston's defensive rating and win total from last year. The second two are those same numbers from this year. Defensive impact has been notoriously tricky to quantify, but the effect of Garnett on Boston has been palpable.

Center-Dwight Howard (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 21.6 REB%, 60.2% eFG)
Again, anyone want to argue this? Howard is easily the most dominant center in the conference, if not the entire league.

Bench

Guard-Dwyane Wade (33 USG%, 103 ORtg, 35.8 AST%, 9 FTA/36, 75.6% FT, 46.8% eFG)
Is he having a down year? Yeah, sure, but he's still Dwyane Wade. He still gets to the line as well as anyone in the league, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.

Guard-Rip Hamilton (24.7 USG%, 114 ORtg, 53.1% eFG, 23 AST%, 10.4 TO%, 81.5% FT)
Honestly, I searched really hard to find someone who deserved this spot, maybe someone that everyone else had missed. No dice. As I mentioned above, the guards in the East are so bad that I'm really kind of reaching here (as opposed to the West, which is overflowing with candidates). In the end, nobody I looked at was having a better year than Hamilton. A lot of people like Ray Allen here because of how well Boston has played, but I'm not buying that, and Rip is having a better year. Hamilton is an extremely efficient scorer, and might be the league's best at using off the ball screens (It's between he and Kevin Martin IMO). In addition, he's also a very solid defensive player (as with most Pistons players).

Forward-Caron Butler (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 50.8% eFG, 91.3% FT, 20.5 AST%)
Butler supposedly made "The Jump" last year when he made it into his first All-Star game. Well, if he was jumping last year, he's flying this year. His turnovers are down, his assists are way up, his shooting percentages are way up, and he's carrying the Wizards in Gilbert Arenas' absence. His mid-range game has always been among the best in the league, but this year he has really increased his range, shooting 36.5% from long-range.

Forward-Paul Pierce (25.7 USG%, 110 ORtg, 49.6% eFG, 22.8 AST%, 8.8 REB%)
I was trying to decide between Pierce and Richard Jefferson here, and really the difference between the two is minimal. Their stat profiles are so similar that it's almost impossible to chose between them. Jefferson is putting up better pure scoring numbers, but Pierce is the better distributor and rebounder. In the end, it comes down to Pierce being the superior defensive player and more proven star.

Center-Chris Bosh (28.6 USG%, 117 ORtg, 14.9 REB%, 10.2 TO%, 48.9% eFG, 85.6% FT)
Even if Bosh didn't actually deserve this, he's really the only choice. At any rate, Bosh is having the best season of his career. He's often the forgotten 4th member of that LeBron, Wade, Melo draft class, but he has absolutel
y kept himself at that level. He hasn't yet become a dominant defensive force, but he's definitely improving as a disruptive force who can defend without fouling. Offensively, he rivals Garnett and Duncan as the best face-up post men in the league. He's got a great jab step, and he's so quick and so long that he's almost impossible to guard without help. That quickness means he gets to the line a TON, and his FT% has shot up to 85% this season. He's also got great hands, makes quick decisions, and picks his spots well, leading to very low turnover numbers for a guy his size who has such a high usage rate.

Wild Card #1-Richard Jefferson (27.5 ORtg, 111 ORtg, 48.5% eFG, 80.4% FT)
If I struggled with Jefferson vs. Pierce above, it didn't take a lot of thought to put him here. A bit overlooked in the Nets' collapse, Jefferson is completing his transformation from a role player who finished Jason Kidd alley-oops into the team's star-quality first option. It isn't the most efficient year of Jefferson's career, but he's taking on a much bigger role in the offense, and he's thriving.

Wild Card #2-Josh Smith (26.5 USG%, 100 ORtg, 13 REB%, 45.3% eFG, 20 AST%, 3.4 BPG, 2 SPG)
There were three people I considered here: Smith, Antwan Jamison, and Tayshaun Prince. Jamison is having a solid year, and he's rebounding than he ever has in his career. He doesn't make many mistakes (4th lowest TO% in the league), but the fact that he shoots 30% from the field really hurts him. He also doesn't play defense, and he just isn't a good enough offensive player to make up for that and get on the team for me. Prince is a fantastic player who often gets overlooked in Detroit, but he's a matchup nightmare with his length and versatility, and he's one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. However, if I'm going to go with a defensive force, it's got to be Smith. He might not have much polish as an offensive player yet, but Smith is the rare player who can be a dominating defensive force against multiple positions. Like Andrei Kirilenko, he can match up with wing defenders, but he's also a force defending the rim and drifting into passing lanes. The Hawks are 9th in the league in defense, and the biggest reason is Smith's game-altering presence.

Some guys of note on the outside looking in

Kidd - People get wrapped up in the whole triple-double thing, but the fact is that Kidd has really fallen off as an offensive player. He can't finish around the rim at all anymore, and he's turning the ball over at a prodigious rate. People need to start getting used to the idea that the 34-year old Kidd may not be an elite point guard any more.

Jamison - I went over this above. Very good offensive player, very bad defensive player.

Michael Redd - What I said about Jamison, only more pronounced. To say that he plays matador defense is an understatement.

Hedo Turkoglu - Hedo is a fantastic story this year as he has really improved his play and become a key part of Orlando's success. He's had some truly great moments at the ends of games too. However, I think he's much more a top-tier role player than he is an all-star. He isn't a good defender, and his offensive numbers are good, but not great.

Joe Johnson - He's only noteworthy because he's on the actual all-star team. In reality he's having his worst season as a Hawk, and doesn't deserve to be on the team.

Western Conference team coming soon

Everybody and their mother has an opinion on the recent Marion for Shaq deal. Because of that, I'll try not to run on too long with this.

First of all, this deal was automatic for the Heat, I think everyone can see that. Even if Marion got injured tomorrow and never played a game in a Heat uniform, they come out ahead because they save about $10 mil on the deal and get Shaq's monster deal off the books. There weren't going to be a whole lot of takers for Shaq, and nobody would be willing to offer a player of Marion's caliber for him. Better player, better contract, easy trade to make.

For the Suns, of course, this is a completely different animal. This is, quite obviously, the not about these two players' current level of production. Marion has clearly been more productive in recent years, and he is a fantastic fit to the Suns system. No, this trade was about more than just what you see on the court. First, no matter what the two of them might say, this was about Marion and Amare not getting along. Marion has long been a tempermental player, but those in the know say that the Phoenix locker room has been particularly uncomfortable this season. So, not only do the Suns get rid of the dissenting party, but they bring in one of the most charismatic figures in sports, and a guy who has tons of championship experience. In terms of team chemistry, you can't make a much bigger swing than that. Second, the Suns are counting on seeing a better version of Shaq than the version the Heat have been getting. They're counting on O'Neal being extra-motivated by a chance to play for a title contender, and they also believe that their top-notch training staff can help Shaq in much the same way they've helped Steve Nash and Grant Hill play at a high level late in their careers. As an unintentional bonus, almost everyone in the media has been killing this trade and calling Shaq washed up. If Shaq still has anything left, that's good news for the Suns, cause an angry O'Neal is a motivated O'Neal, and as Shaq said today, "You just don't really want to get me upset. When I'm upset, I'm known to do certain things -- like win championships."

All that said, was this a good idea for the Suns? Well, I was all set to pan this trade right when I heard about it. I've been as critical as anyone of Shaq recently, and by all accounts, it looks like this is a terrible fit. However, if you believe,as I did and as many within the Suns organization apparently did, that the Suns weren't going to win the title as previously constructed, and if they felt like they needed to get rid of Marion, then is this really all that bad? Chad Ford has an article on ESPN.com talking about all the other better deals that Phoenix could've gotten. However, consider this: you're Phoenix and you know you have a closing window to win a title; you've been punished by opposing post players again and again in the playoffs; you're the team that can't get over the hump, isn't it a decent risk to bring in the Diesel and hope that he can be motivated enough to turn back the clock? With all do respect to Chad Ford (whose work I love), if I'm the Suns I'd rather take a chance on getting a rejuvenated Shaq than make any of those other deals. This really is one of those rare trades that looks incredibly one-sided on paper and after a quick look at the statistics, but becomes a calculated risk when you consider the off-court impact.

Finally, what can we expect from Phoenix now? Well, you'll see a lot more of Boris Diaw, which is one of the reasons Phoenix could make this deal. With the acquisition of Hill, Diaw's minutes have been down this year, and he's a guy who can really help them on the offensive end. Obviously, Shaq is going to struggle against the pick and roll, something that he struggled with even in his prime, but Phoenix's hope is that he'll offset that by providing valuable defense on guys like Duncan, Bynum and Yao, and that letting Amare play more help side defense will improve his defensive play. Whether or not that is actually the case will likely depend on just how motivated Shaq is, and if he can turn back the clock a few years.

Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.

Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.

I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-####, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?

The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.

In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.

Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.

Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.

Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.

It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.

Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.

Have A Happy Turkey Day All!!

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Washington Wizards

Coach: Eddie Jordan
2006-2007 Record: 41-41
06-07 Expected Record: 39.5 - 42.5
Offensive Rating: 109.8 (4th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 110.9 (28th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 49.1% (18th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 94.1 (5th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

I want to like Gilbert Arenas. Really, I do. I think he has tried harder than most athletes to connect with fans, and his blogging efforts have spearheaded a movement of NBA player blogs. I think he genuinely tries hard to get people interested in not only himself, but in the NBA as a whole. The problem is that, whatever intentions he may have, Gilbert comes across as a ####. He has no filter, so he ends up saying a bunch of really stupid stuff. Attitude-wise, he’s got a me-against-the-world perspective that has served him well in motivating him to improve from 2nd rounder to All-Star, but at this point, that chip on his shoulder is a bit too big, and he needs to learn how to tuck it away and put team success ahead of his individual performance. On the court, Agent Zero is one of the toughest matchups in the league, and nearly impossible to check 1 on 1. He’s blindingly quick, he shoots well from all over the court, and he gets to the line as well as anyone in the game. In addition to all that, he relishes the big moment, when he can take a team on his back and bury that game-winner at the buzzer. He’s one of the few guys in the league who legitimately scares you with the ball in his hands at the end of a close game. Defensively, it’s another story. Gilbert doesn’t seem to have inclination to apply his physical gifts to defense, preferring instead the “matador”-style of defense.

I think Caron Butler gets overlooked a lot when you’re talking about the top players in the East, but he quietly goes about his business and is consistently one of the better 2-way forwards out there. He’s an excellent defensive player when he wants to be and is a great rebounder, as well as being a very good offensive player. Butler isn’t much of a perimeter shooter, but he has a great mid-range game and he’s an excellent free throw shooter. In fact, the biggest complaint about Butler’s game might be that he doesn’t get to the line enough, given that he spends a lot of time slashing to the rim and that he shoots such a high percentage from the stripe. If he can work on drawing contact and getting to the line more, he’d become a much more efficient offensive player. Of course, on the defensive end, Butler suffers from Wizarditis, also known as a complete and utter distain to giving any effort on defense. All the tools and talent is there, but too often the attitude isn’t

You’ve got to respect Antwan Jamison. He’s not particularly flashy, and he plays against guys with 2-3 inches on him a lot, but he’s got great hands and a quick release, so he gets tons of garbage points around the basket. That used to be as far as his game went, but in recent years he has really improved his three-point stroke, becoming a true threat from there as well. He’s a tough matchup because he can score in bunches, and he can also score naturally in the flow of the offense without many plays run for him because he moves so well without the ball. Of course, this comes at a cost because Jamison has never been confused with a good defender. As you’ll note, this is kind of a theme for the Wizards.

The platoon of Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas is, shall we say, not so good. They’re both fairly solid rebounders and shotblockers, but they’re also both very bad offensive players. The extent of their offense is that they can dunk it if you throw it to them, neither can shoot free throws, and both are turnover machines.

Antonio Daniels is highly underrated. Sure, he doesn’t play defense, but offensively he’s one of the best backup guards in the game. He’s a very smart player who shoots well, draws fouls as well as anyone (one of the league’s highest rates of FTAs per FGAs), and passes well without turning the ball over much. Very solid, very overlooked.

Nick Young is a great talent and he has the potential to be very good one day, but he’s not really what the Wiz needed. They desperately need a defensive post presence of some sort, and they didn’t get one. They’ve got plenty of perimeter scoring, but they’re awfully thin on the inside.

X-Factor: Andray Blatche – I’ve read a lot about Blatche’s great talent and his potential to be a dominating rebounder and shotblocker. I’ve also read a lot about his immaturity and lack of interest in practice. If he could get his head on straight, Blatche could be the interior presence that the Wiz need to give them some semblance of a decent defense, which, given their explosive offense, would make the Wiz a very tough team. On the other hand, if he continues down his current path, Blatche will be riding on the Kwame Brown Express to nowhere.

Overview

The story of the Wizards last year was pretty simple. Great offense, terrible defense. That was about it. Very simply, Washington’s big three were going to expend all their energy trying to outscore you, and they succeeded enough times to get into the playoffs. Of course, the end of their season was then ruined when injuries to Arenas and Butler kept them out of the postseason, all but ensuring that the Wiz had no chance.

Prediction

For a team that finished 7th in the East and showed less defensive intensity than a middle school girls team, the Wiz seemed surprisingly content to stand pat on what they had. The fact is that this team got great years from all 3 of their best players and were still very mediocre. This year they’ll be facing tougher competition from an improved Eastern conference, and Arenas is still battling injuries early in the season. I just can’t see this team sniffing the playoffs this year, they just don’t give any defensive effort.

10th in the East - The Enigmas

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Orlando Magic

Coach: Stan Van Gundy
2006-2007 Record: 40-42
06-07 Expected Record: 43-39
Offensive Rating: 104.6 (24th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 104.4 (7th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 50% (13th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 89.9 (26th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

 

Dwight Howard is a monster. I watched him on the US team over the summer and was struck by how much he stood out among some of the world's best players. He's just completely physically overpowering, almost like a young Shaq. Scary thought, Howard is only 21 and would be a senior in college this year without early entry. He's really turnover prone and doesn't shoot well from the line, and he's still a dominant player. The turnovers are a common problem with young players, and he showed some improvement from the charity stripe in the preseason. He's still very raw on the offensive end, but he's a solid offensive player because of his incredible physical gifts. He's already an elite rebounder and very good shotblocker, once he polishes up his offensive game, watch out.

The Magic paid Rashard Lewis WAY too much, but he's still a very good player. He's an extremely efficient scorer who can shoots great percentages and doesn't turn the ball over much. If you could quibble with any part of Lewis's offensive game it's that he doesn't get to the free throw line much, though he's been getting better at that the last few years as he's developing more of a post-up game. Defensively, he's really limited despite his length and athletic gifts. He's going to have to play mostly power forward this year with the Injury to Tony Battie, and he doesn't do well with ####ing in the post. I wouldn't be surprised to see Orlando play a good deal of zone this year where Lewis can be a decent asset due to his length.

Hedo Turkoglu is, in many ways, a very similar player to Lewis. He's a very good perimeter shooter, and a poor defender despite his size. He was set to lose a lot of minutes with the acquisition of Lewis, but the injury to Battie gives him an opportunity to play a big role and prove his value to the team. He's actually a very good ballhandler and distributor for his size, posting a great assist ratio for a non-PG. He's another guy who would benefit greatly from playing in a zone due to his length.

I would expect Ariza to take over most of Keith Bogans' minutes this year. He's a great athlete who rebounds really well for a SF, and is among the best finishers in the league (68.5% of his FG attempts were right at the rim, and he made 64.2% of those shots). He's a pretty terrible shooter, but he's the one player on the Magic who is a really dynamic slasher on the wings. He's also developing into a really good defensive player with his quickness, averaging 2 steals per 40 minutes so far in his career.

I was really surprised when I watched J.J. Redick playing in the preseason. Now, I know tha preseason rarely means anything, but I watched one game where he missed 4 or 5 wide open shots. For most players, that's not a big deal, but Redick NEVER missed wide-open shots in college, it's what made him such a great player. He can't play defense at all (guys were driving by him like he wasn't even there), and he's not a great ballhandler, so he can't just be a good shooter, he has to be a great shooter. It could be nothing, and he could end up shooting fine this season, but it was pretty shocking to watch J.J. front rim jumper after jumper.

X-Factor: Jameer Nelson - Nelson really came back to earth last year after having a sensational second year. His shooting percentages really plummeted, most noticeably finishing around the rim, where his percentage dropped 80 points. Nelson is such a young player that it's tough to determine which year's result to trust. I'm inclined to think that Nelson will return more to the form he showed 2 years ago. Despite his lack of height, Nelson was been a good finisher and rebounder throughout his playing career because he's so strong, and I just can't see him shooting so poorly around the rim again. Also, with the improvement of Howard and all the shooters around him, as well as Nelson's own improvement, we can probably expect his assist totals to go up by a substantial amount. If he ends up being a MIP candidate as some are predicting for this season, the Magic will be in real good shape.

Overview

Last year was a really good year for the Magic by most accounts. Despite some regression from their young point guard, they leapt into the playoffs behind a full year from Grant Hill and a huge jump from Dwight Howard. They won with defense, relying on the twin shotblocking machines of Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic. Offensively, Orlando actually did a decent job in most categories, shooting above average from the field, rebounding real well on the offensive end, and getting to the free throw line a lot. Their one problem was turnovers, and it absolutely killed their offensive efficiency. With turnover machines Milicic and Howard getting the ball a lot in the post, the team turned the ball over more often than any other team in the league. In the offseason, the Magic decided to whip out their checkbooks in a big way, signing Rashard Lewis to a huge max deal, but losing Hill and Milicic at the same time.

Prediction

This year projects to be a very different look from last year with their personnel change. Replacing Milicic with Lewis and losing Battie for the year will hurt them defensively, but with defensive-minded Stan Van Gundy as coach and the presence of Howard underneath, they still figure to be a good defensive team. Offensively, Lewis is going to offer a big upgrade, but most of their offensive development is going to be determined by the improvement of their young guys (Howard, Nelson, and Ariza) and their ability to cut down on turnovers. Realistically, I think we can expect a 45-46 win season from the Magic, but they're not yet really a threat to win the Eastern Conference. I'd give them one more year to grow and mesh together before expecting real big things out of them.

5th in the East - Playoffs or Bust

 

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Miami Heat

Coach: Pat Riley
2006-2007 Record: 44-38
06-07 Expected Record: 39-43
Offensive Rating: 104.9 (21st in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 104.7 (7th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 50.6% (6th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 89.9 (25th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Wade is a great player, but he takes more punishment than anyone but Iverson, and he's not the freak of nature that Iverson is. You have to wonder if he's ever going to be able to hold up for an entire season. He's already missing the start of this season, and shoulder injuries are easily reaggravated. Since Wade is about the only good thing this team has going for them, they desperately need him to be healthy. If he doesn't play at least 60 games, they haven't got a prayer.

Shaq's time as a dominant force is over, if you're not willing to admit that then you're in denial. Even when he was on the court last year he wasn't a very good offensive player. He's been declining rapidly since '03, and he dropped off terribly last year. Shaq's game has always been based mainly around sheer physical dominance, and an aging and out-of-shape Shaq just isn't effective.

Udonis Haslem is extremely effective when he isn't asked to do much offensively. You can't go to him to get tough post scores, but he's a good rebounder and can finish around the rim when you throw it in to him. He works hard and doesn't miss many games, he's the consummate glue guy.

Jason Williams is better than you think he is. He doesn't turn it over nearly as much as he did earlier in his career, and he's a pretty decent shooter, given the huge amount of three-pointers he puts up. Again, the problem is that he has health issues and at 32 could break down at any time.

For his height, Mark Blount is a terrible rebounder. He's a decent backup, but you don't want him starting. When Shaq goes down at some point this year, they're going to be in trouble.

As I said when they acquired him, I would not ever want Ricky Davis on my team. I know they didn't give up much to get him and that they were desperate for players, but Davis has no competitive fire in him at all. He's out for one thing and one thing only, and that's looking out for number one. I don't think he improves them all that much now, and I think he could cause problems when Wade comes back and takes away all those shots he's getting.

You have to marvel at guys like Zo and Mutumbo who are getting up there, but can still come off the bench and give their teams big rebounding and shotblocking upgrades.

X-Factor: Dorell Wright - He's the one player on this team who can give them the infusion of youth and athleticism that they desperately need. He's 22 and a very good athlete who is still learning the game after being a first round pick out of high school. Last year was his first year of real action, so it's reasonable to expect a big improvement this year. He's a superior rebounder from the wing and has good floor vision. He needs to improve his jumper and finishing at the rim, but the tools are all there.

Overview

This team got incredibly lucky last year during the regular season. They won 5 more games than their expected result, so instead of being 4 games under .500 as their negative point differential would suggest, they were 6 games over the halfway mark. The team as a whole was very obviously old and breaking down. Just about the only consistent player on the team was Haslem, and though he's a great role player, he can't carry a team. To make matters worse, the Heat had a terrible offseason where they missed out on both Mo Williams and Charlie Bell, bringing in only Smush Parker at the PG spot, and they lost James Posey and Jason Kapono. Bringing in Penny Hardaway is not going to help anything, and drafting Daequan Cook was a poor choice because he won't be a significant contributor for at least a few more years. They salvaged things a bit by bringing in Mark Blount and Ricky Davis for the dead weight that is Antoine Walker, but neither of those guys are particularly great players either.

Prediction

Anyone who tells you this team is still a championship contender is delusional. Shaq is no longer a dominant player, he's the 5th best center in the East at best (behind KG, Howard, Bosh, and Z-Bo), and that's a bit of a reach (you could easily argue for Okafor and the other O'Neal). If this team is going to get to the playoffs, it's going to be because Wade carries them there. Good as he is, even if Wade plays almost the whole season, it's going to be a huge task just to get to the postseason. Basically everyone on this team is either aging and injury prone or just not that good, and that's not a team I want to bet on. Miami mortgaged their future to win a title, and now they're paying the piper.

  11th in the East - The Enigmas

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Charlotte Bobcats

Coach: Sam Vincent
2006-2007 Record: 33-49
06-07 Expected Record: 32-50
Offensive Rating: 103.4 (27th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 107.7 (20th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 48% (25th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 92.0 (13th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

If Okafor could ever get through a whole season without missing a bunch of games, he'd be great. He's one of the top shotblockers and rebounders in the league. He's never going to be a 20 point, go-to scorer in the post, but he's good enough if you don't ask him to do too much. If he can stay healthy, he's the kind of dynamic defensive presence that can anchor a great defensive team.

How Gerald Wallace got paid half of what Rashard Lewis got this offseason is beyond me. He's a terrific player, and he's shown a great work ethic over the years. His jumpshot, once absolutely awful, is now serviceable, he's cut down on his turnovers, and his excellent defense keeps improving as well. His offense used to be mostly restricted to transition and offensive putbacks, but the improvement in his jumpshot and his decision-making makes him a very effective offensive weapon that you can go to in the halfcourt. Unlike similar players who cause havoc all over the defensive end (Kirilenko, Josh Smith, The Matrix), Wallace plays almost exclusively SF because of his smaller build. The breakneck style that makes him so effective has also made him somewhat injury prone so far, which is something that the team has to be worried about, but if he can give them 70-75 games a year, they'd be okay with that.

I'm not a big Richardson fan. He took WAY too many three-pointers last season, especially since he's a pretty average long range shooter. He's not nearly as effective a scorer as he should be because he doesn't get to the line enough, and he shoots a poor percentage when he does get there. That said, he's not a bad player, he's just not an all-star. You can't win a title with Richardson as your best player unless he really improves.

You know what happens when you don't get a backup for your injury-prone post players? You end up starting Primoz Brezec or Ryan Hollins at center, that's what. Raise your hand if you think starting Primoz Brezec is a good idea. Yeah, that's what I thought.

Matt Carroll is a solid bench player. He can't play a lick of defense, but he's an excellent shooter, and he actually manages to get to the free throw line fairly often for a long-range specialist (he shot more FTs per 40 minutes than Jason Richardson last year). I think they overpaid for him, but he's a solid contributor.

Was there a more surprising development last year than the discovery of Walter Herrmann as a player? He was on absolutely no one's radar, but then popped up and played absolutely amazing for half a season. He shot 53% from the field and 46% from deep, amazing percentages from a guy who no one saw coming. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bobcats decide to just run small and play him in the starting lineup.

I like Jared Dudley a lot. He's not a great physical talent, but I'd almost guarantee that he turns out to be better than half the guys taken above him. He's an extremely hard worker, and one of his biggest strengths, getting to the line, is something that should translate very well.

X-Factor: Raymond Felton - This is a big year for Felton. His fellow point guards from the draft class of '05 (Paul and Williams) have both seen great success in the first two years of their pro career. Felton so far has not lived up to the promise that made him a lottery pick. He's a really bad shooter, and he just isn't good enough at other facets of his game to offset that. He's extremely quick and has good passing instincts, but because he can't shoot defenders don't have to respect him, and he's not a strong enough finisher to still be effective (ala Tony Parker). He's got a great opportunity this year with two really athletic wings beside him, and a team that should be running really up-tempo with their poor frontcourt depth. If he doesn't show significant improvement this year, the Cats might have to start thinking about finding another point guard of the future.

Overview

What a strange, strange season it was for the Bobcats. Sean May and Brevin Knight missed half the season, Okafor missed 15 games, and Felton and Adam Morrison both struggled more than expected. With all that, and with the Oden/Durant lottery coming up, you'd think that the Cats might've just packed up and mailed it in for the year. Well, instead they actually had a strong end to the season, led by a bunch of obscure players who turned into gems. The injuries to the regulars provided the opportunity for Carroll and Herrmann to show that they could play (as well as giving a little inexplicable career rebirth to Derek Anderson). The promise of those players, along with the return of injured players and the offseason acquisition of Jason Richardson, had everyone talking playoffs for Charlotte until Sean May and Morrison went down for the year with injury. Now, expectations are significantly less bright for the Cats.

Prediction

The blow of losing May was absolutely killer to this team's chances. They had a thin frontcourt anyway, but with May gone there is absolutely nothing in the post outside of Okafor, who is also injury-prone. Why they didn't go out and get another post player this offseason is beyond me. Even after the Wallace deal, they still had the money to go after Darko, make an offer for Andray Blatche or Anderson Varejao, or at the very least try for a guy like Jamaal Magloire. Instead, they pinned their hopes on two injury-prone guys, and it came back to bite them. This year, they're probably going to end up starting Herrmann at PF and playing the small lineup, cause the other options are just bad. If Okafor goes down, you can forget it, there's no one behind him. I'd expect to see them run a whole lot this year with Felton at the point and Wallace and Richardson on the wings. The bottom of the line though is that outside of the G/F spot, their bench is almost non-existent, and they just can't get by without May.

13th in the East - If You're Bad in the East, You're Really Bad

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Atlanta Hawks

Coach: Mike Woodson
2006-2007 Record: 30-52
06-07 Expected Record: 29-53
Offensive Rating: 103.0 (28th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 108.3 (23rd in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 47.1% (30th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 90.0 (24th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

The Hawks have been maligned quite a bit for taking wing forward after wing forward in the draft, because, you know, it was really dumb. However, as a result they've got a really strong group of small forwards who all bring something different to the table. Smith is developing into the kind of player Andrei Kirilenko was for the Jazz a few years ago. He's a great athlete who is an elite defender. He's not a great shooter, so he's better running the PF spot in an up-tempo system than he is at SF.

Childress is one of the most underrated complementary players out there. He shoots a high percentage, he passes the ball well, and he can rebound well from the 3 spot. He only played 55 games last year due to injury, and the Hawks need him to be healthy because he can play some as a point forward.

If I were a Hawks fan, I'd give Joe Johnson a standing ovation every time he steps on the floor. He was a big name free agent signing, and he actually wanted to play for Atlanta. Again, he WANTED to play for the most moribund fan base in the NBA. Amazing. Anyway, he's a really good offensive player. He takes on a large load on offense, and he shoots a high percentage. He might not be an All-NBA superstar, but he's an All-Star caliber player.

The Hawks point guards from last year are not good. Speedy Claxton and Tyronn Lue are bench players at best. Claxton is the better distributor and defender, but his shooting makes Rajon Rondo look like Ray Allen in comparison. Lue isn't a good shooter, but he's better than Claxton, only his defense is impressively bad, and he isn't much of a distributor. Law is a better option than either of them. He might not exactly be a pure point guard, but he's a winner.

Now seems to be a good time to bring up the fact that the Hawks passed on Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, Randy Foye, and Brandon Roy in the last few drafts. Bah, guard play, who needs it?

Some players have an innate sense for the moment. They're the leaders, the big-game players, the guys who scare the living #### out of you at the end of a close game. When you combine that quality with immense talent, you get guys like MJ and Bird; when you combine it with average talent, you get guys like Sam Cassell and Robert Horry. Acie Law has "it".

Horford is a stud, I wouldn't be surprised if he's starting in front of Pachulia before too long. Pachulia will make a decent backup center, but they need the rebounding and toughness of Horford, it's something they desperately need.

X-Factor: Marvin Williams - If Williams doesn't want to go down as one of the biggest mistakes in a long line of Hawks draft mistakes, he's got to take his game to another level this season. He's a great talent, but so far his biggest achievement has been a dominant summer league performance last year. He shoots a lot of long jumpshots from just inside the
three-point line, and it hurts his efficiency as a scorer. The strength of his offensive game is his mid-range scoring ability, where he's quick enough to beat defenders to the rim and has a consistent jumper. He's also got all the tools to be an amazing defender, with long arms, great quickness, and great leaping ability. For him to succeed, he's got to become a smarter player, and he's got to extend his range to behind the arc. If not, he's going to get lost in the mix of Atlanta's forwards and end up being an extremely disappointing #2 pick.

Overview

The Hawks were impressively bad last year. Offensively, they suffered the effects of having young players and bad point guards. They shot the worst percentage in the league, and they commited tons of turnovers. In their defense, the Hawks did have a lot of injuries, with Johnson missing 25 games, Childress 27, Lue 26, and Claxton 40. Of course, that's about the only defense the Hawks had (ba dum ching. Thank you, thank, I'll be here all week). Opposing teams shot a high percentage against them, they sent teams to the line a bunch, and they were one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league. So, what did they do to change that? Well, they preserved their young core to let everyone develop, and they drafted two players who fill their needs and come from winning programs.

Prediction

There's a whole lot of talent on this team. I really like the winning attitude that guys like Law and Horford can bring to this team. I especially like Law as their point guard, he's got moxie. With continued improvement from their young players and healthier years from Johnson and Childress, it's reasonable to see this team making a playoff push. However, they're the Hawks, and I'm not going to believe it till I see it. Since the Clippers reached the playoffs 2 years ago, Atlanta has had the most hopeless run in the NBA. They'll find some way to screw this up.

9th in the East - Not Very Good, But Hey, It's The East!

Ugh, I just finished writing this whole thing, then had a problem with my PC and lost it all. Alas. Such is my dedication to bringing you people all the latest and greatest NBA news that I will tirelessly type it all up again...or I'm just really bored right now and need something to do.

You know what I love about the NBA summer league? It isn't seeing how all the highly drafted rookies do. No, it's seeing all the guys who I remember from their college days, but who dropped off the face of the planet after failing to make it big in the pros. Guys like Josh Powell (who ruined a promising college career by leaving too early, not that I'm bitter), Brandon Bass (ditto), Von Wafer (seeing a trend?), my boy Julius Hodge (please Jules, do something this year so I have a State player to cheer for), and D'Or Fischer (anybody else remember him leading the nation in blocks?). Heck, we've even had a Mateen Cleaves sighting. Can't beat the NBA summer league for seeing those former college stars...well, except for maybe the NBDL.

So, sifting through the worthlessness that is most of the summer league, what are the few things that we can take from what we've seen so far?

• Tyrus Thomas has apparently developed a solid mid-range jumpshot, which is big trouble for the rest of the league. Thomas might be the quickest big in the game, and if defenders can't lay off him from 15 feet, we might be seeing a whole lot more highlight reel dunks next year.
• Marco Bellinelli has no conscience. Through 3 games, he's taken 56 shots at a rate of a shot every 2 minutes. Even in the notoriously foul-heavy summer league, Bellinelli has taken almost twice as many 3-pointers as free throws. The phrase "quick trigger" does not do the man justice. In other words, he'll be perfect for Nellieball.
• Outside of 1 quarter against Cleveland, Yi has been thoroughly unimpressive. He's shooting a terrible percentage and most of his points have come from the line, which is deceptive because of the increased amount of fouls called in the summer league. Well, at least he's got a pretty free-throw stroke.
• Is it just me, or is Desagana Diop morphing into a poor man's Dikembe Mutumbo? They even kind of look alike.

• 

 

 

 

 

 

 p>

 

 

 

 

• J.J. Redick has been on fire at the Orlando summer league so far, though on one play he saw there was too much traffic in the lane and promptly pulled a U-turn to get away. Sorry, that was a low blow. J.J., if I hurt your feelings, I can send some tissues.

Other than summer league play, the other big NBA news is that the salary cap was announced today ($56.6 mil), meaning that free agent deals can officially be finalized.

• Apparently, the Magic have worked out a sign and trade with Seattle where they send a second rounder to the Sonics in order to get Bird rights to Rashard Lewis so they can sign him for 6 years instead of 5. Lewis' deal will start at around $16 mil (max for a 9-year veteran) and end up at around $25 mil in his last year. Yeah, have fun with that one Magic fans.
  
• Mo Williams is seriously considering signing with Miami, and I'm puzzled as to why. I mean, that team is going downhill fast, and you can get twice as much money from Milwaukee, which is a young, quickly improving team where you're one of the leaders. It really wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bucks were better than the Heat next year if Williams comes back. Again, I don't understand the motivation.
• Trey Johnson on Williams' decision, "It's hard to tell where he's leaning. I just told him it would be lovely if he comes to Miami and I make the roster, too." Lovely, Trey? What are you, an 80-year-old woman? Weird quote.
• The big free agent mystery now? Darko's final destination. With Charlotte reportedly close to inking Gerald Wallace, Darko is the biggest catch still available. However, there aren't many teams that can offer him the $8-9 mil a year that he wants. Memphis is apparently interested, and Milwaukee would probably make a move pending the Darko and Williams situations. The other option is Charlotte, who would still have enough cap space to offer him what he wants if they sign Gerald Wallace to a $12-13 mil deal.
• Well, KG and Kobe trade talks have settled down, and it appears that we'll spend another season with 2 of the league's biggest stars toiling away in futility on bad teams. Sigh. NBA GMs have no spine. Seriously guys, we know you don't like to trade your superstars, but you've got to know when to cut bait and rebuild. Really, you can actually hear KG's trade value plummeting if you listen hard enough.
  

That's it for now, your daily (and by "daily", I mean "whenever-the-heck-I-feel-like-it") NBA update. I'll leave you with my trivia question of the day, and the imaginary prize goes to the first person who can answer it.

Q: There are 3 players in NCAA history with over 1000 assists on their career. They all played in the ACC. List them in order (most assists to least) and name the school they played for.

Really, the NBA astounds me sometimes. It seems that teams never learn their lesson when it comes to free agents. It's not really that hard guys, just stop paying guys twice as much as they're worth and locking them up in long contracts. Ugh, I should be a GM, I really should.

The Rashard Lewis Deal

On the surface, this deal has a lot of logical things going for it. Grant Hill is headed out of town, and the Magic desperately need wing help. In addition, they've got to extend Dwight Howard next year, so this is the last real chance they get to play the free agent market for a while. Lewis is a versatile scorer, and his perimeter shooting should help open things up for Howard (seen here defending his future teammate). However, the problem is that Orlando is paying Lewis superstar money, and he isn't a superstar. He's a very good player, but he's not going to be the star on a championship team. Now, the Magic might be able to work this out in the end because they have Howard there, but as a general principle, it's a bad idea to pay franchise money to a guy who isn't a franchise player (as Indiana and Boston have found out with O'Neal and Pierce). While a guy like Duncan is worth it, a second tier star like Lewis is going to end up crippling your cap space with a contract like that, and you eventually won't be able to acquire anymore pieces to flesh out your team. Now, if Howard develops into the next Shaq over the next few years and Orlando ends up getting a title out of this pair, then you can throw this out the window. More likely situation? The Magic get to the point where they can't quite make it over the hump, but their lack of cap space around their two stars prevents them from improving. I love Lewis as a fit for the Magic, but I wouldn't have maxed him out in order to get him.

The Mid-Level Shooter Exception

Apparently, the thing to do at the moment is to sign one-dimensional shooters who have had one good year to the full mid-level exception. Jason Kapono got $24 mil for 4 years from the Raptors, and Matt Carroll got $27 mil for 6 years to resign with the Bobcats (not actually a use of their mid-level exception since they have cap space, but about the same $$$ amount). At least the Kapono signing makes
some sense. The Raptors needed a SF to replace Mo Pete, and they needed a perimeter shooter. Hence, Kapono makes sense, and they did only sign him for 4 years, which isn't too bad. That said, Kapono wasn't ever even a decent player until last year, and he's not gonna give you anything beyond being a shooter. $6 mil a year is a bit steep for a guy as one-dimensional as he is. The Carroll signing makes no sense to me at all. I realize shooters are in demand, had done basically nothing before coming out as a shooting specialist last year for the Bobcats. Not only that, but they just traded for Jason Richardson who is going to take most of the minutes at SG. Carroll is a terrible defender, a one-dimensional offensive player, and not a position of need. You're giving this guy nearly $5 mil a year for 6 years? This is a deal that will probably look really ugly down the road.

He Gets It From His Dad

I'm a big fan of the Lakers resigning Luke Walton. $5 mil a year for a guy as versatile and effective as Walton is practically a steal. The length of the deal (6 years) is cause for concern, but I don't even think Walton will fall off that much as he ages. His game is based around fundamentals and passing, not athleticism, which is a good indicator that his performance won't drop that much as he enters his 30s. He's great in the triangle and a perfect complement for a guy like Kobe. He's certainly not the answer to all their problems, but he's about as good a role player as you're going to find. I really like this signing, it makes a lot of sense to me.
Now if only the Lakers could avoid picking up huge contracts on guys like Vlad and Kwame, then we'd be getting somewhere.

Phoenix Bound

The Suns made quite possibly the best free agent signing of the offseason by getting Grant Hill to ink to a 2-year deal at practically no cost using their bi-annual exception. Before signing the deal, the Suns consulted with Hill, his agent, and his left ankle, which says that it promises it will be good this time around and stop screwing with Grant's career. Specifics of the contract are 2 years, $3.8 million, and an unlimited supply of ankle braces and asprin.

The Spurs Are Smarter Than Everyone Else...Again

As if it weren't enough that the reigning champs have the best coach in the business, the best power forward of all time, and the best international scouts (can anybody else match finds like Parker, Ginobili, Oberto, and soon-to-be Luis Scola?), they also have the league's smartest approach to free agents. See, this is a novel idea. They actually pay players what they're worth. Funny, you'd think that might catch on. Another thing that the Spurs do is that they don't sign you to a long term deal unless you're a star (i.e. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili). The result of this is that the Spurs very rarely get caught with terrible contracts, cause if someone isn't performing, they let him walk. It's amazing to me that teams don't learn from their example and continue to sign role players to huge deals. By resigning Fabricio Oberto, Matt Bonner, and Jacque Vaughn all to short, decently priced deals, the Spurs have kept their whole championship team together and put themselves in great position for next year. Keep in mind that this Spurs team is as good as it is, and they still have 2 of the top post players in Europe (Scola and Tiago Splitter) who can come over in future years. There's not a better managed team in professional sports than the Spurs.

Atlanta Hawks - Thumbs Up

Picks - Al Horford (3), Acie Law (11)

Start stockpiling provisions, the apocalypse is coming. The Hawks actually made the right move in this draft by taking the best player on the board and the best point guard on the board. The Hawks now have a scary core group of Law, Johnson, M. Williams, Childress, Smith, Horford, S. Williams, and Pachulia that could contend in the east for the next decade. Of course, this is the Hawks, and Billy Knight is still in charge, so that probably won't happen, but it's a very promising young group.

Boston Celtics - Thumbs Up

Picks - Gabe Pruitt (32), Glen Davis (35)

Well, it's hard to argue with basically trading the #5 pick for Ray Allen. Regardless of what happens with Allen's foot surgery and how his game will hold up with age, that's an incredibly cheap price for a guy with his talent. Their two draft picks, Pruitt and Davis, were both great values who went about 10 picks later than they should have. Pruitt should immediately help as a point guard with a jumpshot, and Davis was a great value who could turn out to be a star if he keeps his weight down. Few players in the draft were as adept post scorers as Davis; he's reminiscent of Zach Randolph without the off-the-court problems.

Charlotte Bobcats - On The Fence

Picks - Jared Dudley (22), Jermareo Davidson (36)

I was a huge fan of the Dudley pick when it happened, but I don't like it as much after the trade. Charlotte desperately needs more post players, especially with O