Coach: P.J. Carlesimo 2006-2007 Record: 31-51 06-07 Expected Record: 34-48 Offensive Rating: 107.1 (10th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 110.4 (27th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 49.9% (14th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 91.8 (14th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
People keep bringing up other guys as prospective ROY candidates and saying that Durant isn't a shoo-in. Lets be honest here, If he's healthy, Durant is a shoo-in. The only guys who are even close to being as NBA-ready as Durant (Scola, Navarro, Horford, Thornton) aren't going to play nearly as big a role as Durant. Oh yeah, and Durant is an otherworldly talent, that helps too. He's gonna struggle at times and have those games where he goes 4 for 20, but he's also going to have brilliant nights where he drops 35 and scores from everywhere on the court.
I like Jeff Green, he's gonna be a great compliment to Durant. He's one of those solid guys who does everything well, doesn't take bad shots, and makes guys around him better. He might have a bit of a tough year as he adjusts to the speed of the NBA game, but he's going to be an excellent building block for their franchise.
Hey, remember back in 2002 when Maryland won the NCAA championship and everyone was raving about the athleticism and potential of Chris Wilcox? Remember how he got picked above Amare Stoudemire, Caron Butler, Tayshaun Prince and Carlos Boozer? Remember how he did absolutely nothing for 3 years? Well, Wilcox is finally living up to his talent and becoming a force. He still needs to polish up his game, but he's got every physical tool you could ask for in a post player. He's 6'10, strong, has long arms and a great vertical. He's also one of those guys who will go out of his way to try and dunk on you. I think he's primed for a really good season.
I don't like Luke Ridnour. He's an overrated offensive player and an absolutely TERRIBLE defensive player. Unfortunately, none of their other options at the point are real good. Their best option might be Delonte West, and he's more of a combo guard.
You know who I do like? Nick Collison, that's who I like. He's a really good rebounder, especially for a guy who's 6'9 and not especially athletic. Oh yeah, and he still looks like a frat boy, I think that's funny.
X-Factor: The Three-Headed Monster - You'd think that 2 lottery picks and another first rounder would produce at least one serviceable center, but not so for the Sonics. For their efforts, they have the super-raw Sene (who will probably spend a good chunk of time in the D-league), a guy who projects to be a decent backup for his career in Petro, and Swift, whose most notable achievement so far is being the only white player ever to be drafted straight out of high school. The real guy to watch for this year is Swift, who is the only one of the three to show much promise as a post scorer. However, it's unclear how many minutes he'll get as he returns from injury in a frontcourt that also has Collison, Wilcox, and Thomas. If they're going to make a quick turnaround to being a playoff team in the next few years, they need one of these guys to develop into a defensive presence at the very least, and hopefully some semblance of an offensive force.
Overview
The Sonics weren't going to be very good last year anyway, but it didn't help that their top 2 players missed a combined 49 games. They actually managed to be a pretty solid offensive team, but to say that they played matador defense would be a compliment, and that's not usually a recipe for winning basketball. Well, those two stars are now gone courtesy of offseason trades, and in their place Seattle has Jeff Green, Delonte West, Kurt Thomas and his expiring deal, 2 first round picks and a second round pick. Not a bad return on an aging star coming off double ankle surgery and a guy who was leaving via free agency anyway. It also helped to have the balls fall right and see one of the best prospects of the last decade fall into their laps in the draft. All in all, a pretty good offseason for the Sonics.
Prediction
The Sonics strike me as one of those teams that everyone kind of writes off as rebuilding, but that has so much talent and youthful energy that they end up surprising everyone. Now, I certainly don't think they'll be in the playoffs, but I don't think they'll be any worse than they were last year, and I can see them having a really good first few weeks and getting a couple of SI articles written about the "New Look Sonics". They're still going to be a poor defensive team, and they're going to be inconsistent (which comes from youth and a below-average point guard situation), but there will be nights when everything is clicking and Durant will carry them to victory over superior teams, he's that good. The real story with the Sonics isn't this year though, it's the bright future that the team secured for itself this offseason. They've got pretty reasonable contracts for everyone (except for Szcerbiak, who comes of the books in two years) and a ton of young talent and future draft picks. Within 2-3 years, they should be back in the playoffs and competitive again.
I'm going to move on to the Eastern conference draft analysis tomorrow, but tonight I want to take a more in-depth look at the draft day trades, of which we had 3 major ones and a lot more minor ones.
ESPN has a full list of all the trades here, so you can check there for all the minor trades.
Trade #1
Boston sends Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, the #5 pick (Jeff Green) and a future second rounder to Seattle for Ray Allen and the #35 pick (Glen Davis)
First of all, this deal is a slam dunk for Seattle. They get younger by dumping Allen, get a solid player in West, and get the perfect guy to complement Durant in Green. There really is no downside to this trade for the Sonics. For the Celtics, it's a bit of a tougher call. I'm of the opinion that Boston needed to revamp and rebuild, but for the last few weeks, we've known that wasn't going to Danny Ainge's plan. From the perspective of improving the team to win now, which was apparently management's goal, this move makes a lot of sense. They paid a relatively low price for a guy who might be the league's best shooter and should pump in around 22 points a game fairly efficiently. Allen is also a guy who has wanted to play for Boston, which is always good. The real concern is that he is 31, coming off surgery for bone spurs in both his feet, and doesn't particularly strike you as a guy who will age well. Was it a perfect trade? No, but the cost was so low for Boston that I think they had to take a swing at it. They didn't give up Gerald Green or Al Jefferson to get him, and a core of Allen, Pierce, and Jefferson should put them in contention in the east. They also didn't trade away Theo Ratliff and his expiring contract, which gives them one more piece to work with to bring in more help. In addition to all that, it also paired Ray Allen with Allan Ray, which is just too awesome for words. Icing on the cake for Boston is that Glen Davis inexplicably fell to them at #35 with that pick, which gives this trade even more value. In the end I think it was the right thing to do for both squads, the deal was just too good a value for Boston.
Trade #2
Portland sends Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau and Fred Jones to New York for Steve Francis and Channing Frye.
I think I'm one of the few people who sees this as a terrible move for the Knicks. Sure, it's great value for a 20-10 guy. they basically traded Channing Frye for Zach Randolph, which is a pretty amazing deal. Why is this trade so bad then? First of all, aren't Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry basically the same player? they're both adept post scorers who have no interest in passing out of double teams or rebounding, and they've both had weight problems. Do you really think you can win a championship with a frontline of Curry and Randolph? You better, because they'll make over $100 mil together over the next 4 years. Also, does anybody actually believe that Randolph isn't going to get in trouble in New York? You take a known head-case guy and put him in New York, and you can bet we'll be hearing more from Zach Randolph before the end of next season. Lastly, how does David Lee get on the floor now? He played as well as anyone in a Knicks uniform and was easily their most efficient player last year, but how does he find PT behind Randolph and Curry? Now, I know this was a pretty low-cost deal, but the cost wasn't so much in the talent the Knicks gave up as it was in the cap space they destroyed. Now, the Knicks cap situation was nothing to be happy about, but at least they had some of their terrible large contracts coming off the books soon. Now they've taken Francis's nearly expired deal and replaced it with Randolph's monster of a contract. Sorry, I just don't get the reasoning. For Portland, I think it was an excellent move. I would've preferred if they'd gotten a lottery pick for trading him, but Frye is a pretty good prize all the same. A year ago, he was untouchable, but New York cooled on him after a lukewarm 2nd season. Just in case you're wondering, Francis is in the deal simply for salary purposes. Portland is reportedly working on a buyout with him that would probably cut his impact on the salary cap by about half before he comes off in 2 seasons.
Trade #3
Charlotte trades the #8 pick (Brandan Wright) to Golden State for Jason Richardson and the #36 pick (Jermareo Davidson)
First of all, like I said in my analysis of their draft, I love this trade for Golden State. They gave from a position of strength (aggressive wing players) to address a position of need (athletic posts who can defend the rim). Wright is, at very worst, a better version of Andris Biedrins. He's got huge potential and is hugely reminiscent of Chris Bosh coming out of college. I would not be surprised at all if he contributed immediately for them. For the Bobcats, I think the trade is a little more interesting. With Richardson's history of knee injuries, this one is a little risky, but if he stays healthy than the deal is a good one for Charlotte. Even after taking on J-Rich's contract, the Bobcats are still nearly $20 mil under the cap, which should be plenty to resign Gerald Wallace. Throwing Wallace and Richardson out on the wings is a scary prospect for the rest of the east. They took a chance and bought low on J-Rich's value, and I can't really fault them for that. They do have a serious frontcourt depth issue though. Okafor and May are the only 2 real competent posts (put your hand down Primoz Brezec, you don't count), and they both have injury history. If they don't pick up some sort of frontcourt answer in free agency (Anderson Varejao maybe?) then I think they're going to look back on this trade with regret, as they let a great young post go.
The long-awaited draft is over, so now its time to take a look at the results. It was actually a rather subdued draft until we got to the 18th pick or so, with the only real surprise being the Ray Allen trade. After that, things started going all kinds of crazy as Portland began to wheel and deal. Anyway, here's my team-by-team analysis of the draft. It's not grades, cause I don't like grades (btw, if we were to give teams a GPA based on their draft grades over time, what would Atlanta's be? 1.5? 2?). I'm going to give either a thumbs up, thumbs down, or on the fence for each team. So, starting with the Western Conference...
Now, I understand that Dallas didn't have a lot to work with here, but they didn't exactly make the most of it. I'll give them the last two, cause there's not that much talent that late, but they took Fazekas, who is quite possibly the worst athlete in the draft, in front of Glen Davis and Josh McRoberts, both much better talents. I don't see Fazekas being any kind of player in the NBA, he's just too slow, and slow big guys whose trademark is their shooting don't have a great track record.
Big thumbs up to the Warriors, who had my second favorite draft (behind Portland's masterpiece). Not only did they manage to grab some fantastic talent, but they got rid of Jason Richardson's contract too. I questioned their selection of Bellinelli instead of Jason Smith, but it makes sense with the acquisition of Wright. Take note that there's still a possibility that Yi will end up here for a package including Wright, though Milwaukee looks like they want to keep him. Wright is a perfect player for them. He has very little range to his game, but he's money near the hoop and he's a very good shot-blocker. At worst, he's a much more talented and athletic version of Andris Biedrins. Bellinelli is a dynamic 2-guard who has great range and can slash, but he's streaky (which should mean he fits in perfectly here). Lasme was one of my favorite second round guys, and I can see him contributing immediately as an energy/defense guy for the Warriors. Very good draft.
I really don't get their draft. They had McRoberts and Davis staring them in the face at both 26 and 31, and they passed them both times for inferior players. Brooks was a solid sleeper, but that's only a good pick if you don't reach for it, and they reached big-time for him. What's more puzzling is that they didn't even reach for a need, they've already got Mike James and Rafer Alston at the point and a gaping hole at PF. Landry is a gritty player, but he's undersized and can't rebound. McRoberts would've been perfect here, I'm really puzzled that they passed on him.
L.A. Clippers - Thumbs Up
Picks - Al Thornton (14), Jared Jordan (45)
The Clippers basically just sat back and took the best value that was available, and they ended up with 2 really good players who are both good fits. Thornton allows them to put the disgruntled Corey Maggette on the trading block. He's a terrific athlete, and I've been saying all along he's the second coming of Shawn Marion. He was easily the best value available for them. Jordan is a pure point who should be able to back up Sam Cassell right away. His ceiling as a player isn't very high, but he's a smart guy who should be able to carve out a niche in the league. I would've gone with Taurean Green there, but I can't fault them for taking Jordan.
L.A. Lakers - Thumbs Down
Picks - Javaris Crittenton (19), Sun Yue (40), Marc Gasol (48)
This rating is contingent on them keeping Kobe Bryant, which they have repeatedly said that they want to do. Were the Lakers set on building for the future, I would be ok with the Crittenton pick. He's the ultimate high-reward point guard prospect, with a good shooting touch, suberb athleticism, and a 6'5 frame. However, he's at least 2 years away from being able to run a team, and I doubt he'll contribute much next year. I'm not sold on Yue. From what I saw of him, he's not a great athlete and he didn't really impress me that much. They did get a steal in Gasol, who most mocks had up at the top of the second round.
Memphis Grizzlies - Thumbs Up
Picks - Mike Conley (4)
Not much to say about this. They took Conley, who was the best point guard in the draft and, in my opinion, the best player on the board at #4. He got better and better as the year went on last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a big contributor this year for Memphis. He's impossibly quick and has tremendous floor vision. Absolutely the right pick for the Griz.
Minnesota Timberwolves - On The Fence
Picks - Corey Brewer (7), Chris Richard (41)
As far as their draft goes, I think they made the right moves. Brewer was the obvious pick when he fell into their laps at #7, and Richard is a great value in the second round, he would be a first rounder if he'd played anywhere but Florida. However, I can't help but feel like the Timberwolves wasted their best chance to rebuild by not getting a KG deal done. They were adamant about what they wanted in return for him, and as a result of that they miss the chance to grab draft picks in the deepest draft in recent memory. I'm fine with the picks they made, but what they didn't do with KG devalues this for me.
New Orleans Hornets - Thumbs Up
Picks - Julian Wright (13), Adam Haluska (43)
They get a thumbs up because Wright at #13 is an absolute steal. He could've easily gone 6 picks higher than that. He doesn't fit a need quite as well as Nick Young would've, but there's no question that he was the best talent left on the board. On potential alone, he's probably the 3rd best guy in the draft. He had games at Kansas where he absolutely destroyed the opposing team. If the Hornets can get some consistency out of him, this is a great pick. Haluska was a surprise, as he wasn't really on anyone's radar. Really though, once you get into the last 20 picks, everything is a stretch.
Phoenix Suns - Thumbs Down
Picks - Alando Tucker (29), D. J. Strawberry (59)
Is there anything more depressing than seeing your team trade away a first round pick for cash? Yeah, the Suns have done that 4 straight times. Not only that, but they then took Tucker at 29, who is a PF in a SF's body. Oh yeah, he can't really shoot either. They had McRoberts and Gabe Pruitt sitting there at 29, and they took Alando Tucker instead. Ugh. The Suns have really made some disappointing moves in the last 2-3 years, and it's a shame cause I think their window for winning is closing. They had the chance here to either take players or trade for players who could bolster a championship level team, and they blew it. I do like the D.J. Strawberry pick at 59 though. He'll carve out a spot in the league as a lock-down defender.
Not only did the Blazers make an absolute killing with their picks but they also managed to bring another piece over in the Zach Randolph trade, Channing Frye. This is the best draft I've ever seen a team have. They drafted a franchise center in Oden, they got rid of head-case Randolph and his monster contract and brought in another good young big in Frye, they drafted two lottery-level talents in Fernandez and Koponen who will continue to mature overseas (something they had to do with all the guys they were bringing in with this draft), they got the steal of the draft in McRoberts at 37 (who is a perfect complementary post guy and also a good friend of Oden's), and they picked up Green about 20 spots later than most people had him ranked. That, my friends, is one heck of a draft. Here's the really scary thing about this team. By trading Randolph's contract for Francis's shorter deal, the Blazers made sure that they will be well under the cap in 2 years when guys like Aldridge and Roy start signing extensions. They've done so well building with young talent, and it's entirely possible that they will be able to keep all of it. Can anybody in the league match the young talent on their frontline with Oden, Aldridge, Frye, and McRoberts? This team is ridiculously scary.
Sacramento Kings - Thumbs Down
Picks - Spencer Hawes (10)
It's not that I don't think Hawes is a bad player. He's probably more-or-less the next Brad Miller, and Miller has had a very solid career with a few All-Star games tossed in there. However, with all the rebuilding that Sacramento has to do, they needed a high-ceiling kind of guy, and Hawes isn't it. Julian Wright would've been the much better pick here.
San Antonio Spurs - Thumbs Up
Picks - Tiago Splitter (28), Marcus Williams (33), Giorgos Printezis (58)
It's just not fair sometimes. The best team in the league adds a lottery-level talent who will wait a year before coming over. Splitter was a perfect fit for them, and they'll be reaping the benefits in two years. Williams is a great prospect with a ton of potential, but he never put it together in college. I was a little surprised that they didn't go with Derrik Byars, but if anyone can get Williams to put things together, it's the Spurs.
Seattle Supersonics - Thumbs Up
Picks - Kevin Durant (2), Jeff Green (5)
Big props to Seattle for being gutsy with their moves. Trading Ray Allen wasn't even something I was thinking about, but it makes a lot of sense. The word from Seattle is that they want to try and resign Rashard Lewis and be able to throw Green, Durant, and Lewis out there all at once. It's a remarkable idea, and I think that they could pull it off. There are very few players in the league versatile and athletic enough to run the 2,3,and 4 spots, but these guys could do it. Can you imagine trying to match up with that? Anyway, even if they don't bring Lewis back, Green is a great compliment to Durant. Overlooked in the Allen for Green deal is that they also brought in Delonte West, who is a solid player and should be the starter at the point for them next year.
Utah Jazz - Thumbs Up
Picks - Morris Almond (25), Kyrylo Fesenko (38)
I have no opinion on Fesenko, but Almond was a great pick at 25. He was obviously the best talent left on the board, and he fills the Jazz's need for a perimeter shooter. Considering where they were picking, the Jazz did a solid job.
Just as a final note, is anyone else as excited as I am that Ray Allen and Allen Ray are on the same team? I've been waiting for this since I learned that Villanova was bringing in a freshman named Allen Ray. It's fate, it had to happen, the basketball gods brought it about.
It must be great to be the Spurs. They've got the core of their team locked up for the next 3 years, and veteran free agents would kill to be on their team. It's almost unfair for the rest of the league. Remember that they've also got Manu's teammate on the Argentinian National Team and 2-time Spanish League MVP Luis Scola waiting in the wings. If all the Spurs did was resign Jaques Vaughn and Fabricio Oberto (which shouldn't be hard), they'd still have to be the favorites going into next year. In addition to that, they can try to use their mid-level exception to pursue a veteran free agent desperate for a championship (for example, if I were Grant Hill, I would be booking my plane ticket to San Antonio right now). So, who should the Spurs be looking at in the draft? Well, my favorite guy for them is Jared Dudley, at either 28 or 33. People are calling him the Josh Howard of this year's draft, and while I wouldn't go that far, I still think he's being overlooked and he's a perfect fit for the Spurs. Also, don't be surprised if they go for an international guy and store him overseas for a few years.
What They Should Do: Resign Vaughn and Oberto, make an offer for Hill, and draft Dudley.
What They Will Do: They'll do whatever is best. Of any franchise in professional sports, I wouldn't trust any of them more than I would the Spurs. They have a definite plan and they almost always seem to be making the right move.
Seattle Supersonics
Roster For 07-08
PG - Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson SG - Ray Allen SF - Damien Wilkeis, Mickael Gelabale PF - Nick Collison, Chris Wilcox C - Robert Swift, Saer Sene, Johan Petro
The Sonics are in luck, even they can't screw this draft up. In the last 3 drafts, they've taken 3 consecutive 7 footers for whom the term "project" is being generous. However, even the Sonics can't screw up taking Kevin Durant. As if that weren't enough, there's more good news for Sonics fans. Apparently Atlanta is very seriously considering trading the number 11 pick for Luke Ridnour. That's not a joke, they're really considering that. Man, I love the Hawks, they're always good for a laugh.
What They Should Do: Take Durant, trade Ridnour for the 11th pick and take Acie Law or Spencer Hawes. In the second round, they can look at Ramon Sessions, Taurean Green, Marc Gasol, and Alando Tucker.
What They Will Do: Even Seattle can't scrrew this draft up, can they?
Toronto Raptors
Roster For 07-08
PG - T.J. Ford, Jose Calderon SG - Anthony Parker, Juan Dixon SF - Joey Graham, Carlos Delfino PF - Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Jorge Garbajosa, Kris Humphries C - Rasho Nesterovic
Picks
None
I have liked the Raptors since they drafted Bosh as their franchise cornerstone. This doesn't figure to be a particlarly busy offseason for Toronto though. They don't really have any cap space, nor do they have any draft picks. I'm not even really going to address them, cause they're not really looking like they'll do anything this offseason. That's not a bad thing though, cause they're a young team that is gelling and improving more each year.
Utah Jazz
Roster For 07-08
PG - Deron Williams, Derek Fisher SG - Gordan Giricek, Ronnie Brewer SF - Andrei Kirilenko, Matt Harpring PF - Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap C - Mehmet Okur, Jarron Collins
Picks
1 - 25 (25 overall) 2 - 25 (55 overall)
Not a whole lot of holes in this Jazz squad. They need to get Ronnie Brewer more minutes next year because, quite frankly, Gordan Giricek might be the worst defender in the league. They really need to trade Kirilenko, but he's got a terrible contract and his value is at an all-time low. At this point, it might be better to just hope he can turn it around next year instead of trading him for way less than what he's worth. At any rate, they need to be looking at someone in the draft who can help back up at the wing position, either SG or SF. The best options for them are probably Marco Bellinelli, Derrick Byars, or Rudy Fernandez.
What They Should Do: Be willing to trade Kirilenko, but don't give him away for nothing. He's still a very solid complementary player with the potential to be very good, and his trade value is very low at this point. Take one of the guys listed at #25.
What They Will Do: They're in the range of teams that might be looking at Daequan Cook, who I think is one of the most overrated prospects in the draft. I can't see him working well with Jerry Sloan, so I hope they avoid him with their first-rounder.
Washington Wizards
Roster For 07-08
PG - Gilbert Arenas, Antonio Daniels SG - Jarvis Hayes SF - Caron Butler PF - Antwan Jamison, Darius Songaila, Etan Thomas C - Brendan Haywood
Picks
1 - 16 (16 overall) 2 - 17 (47 overall)
Yikes. Well, probably the best thing you can say about this team is that Caron Butler has a good contract. Other than that, there isn't a lot to get excited about. Jamison's contract ends this year, Arenas has said that he'll opt out after next year, and the rest of the roster is filled with overpaid role players who are signed for 3 years. There's not really any young talent outside of Butler and Arenas, and they probably won't be keeping Arenas. Not a whole lot of hope for the future there. There's not a ton they can do about it right now though, and they'll probably still be a contender in the east next year. As far as their draft pick, they could use a wing guy, preferably one with some serious potential. Thaddeus Young fits the bill, and I don't think I've seen a mock draft that doesn't have him going to the Wizards. USC's Nick Young would also be a good option if he's still there.
What They Should Do: Try to get rid of Jamison for some young talent/picks before they lose him to free agency. I doubt they can get rid of him, but it wouldn't hurt to try. Take one of the Youngs with their pick.
What They Will Do: Eh, who knows, this is the same franchise that took Kwame Brown with the #1 pick. It's the NBA, anything could happen.
ruggle at times and have those games where he goes 4 for 20, but he's also going to have brilliant nights where he drops 35 and scores from everywhere on the court.
ed for a really good season.
otable achievement so far is being the only white player ever to be drafted straight out of high school. The real guy to watch for this year is Swift, who is the only one of the three to show much promise as a post scorer. However, it's unclear how many minutes he'll get as he returns from injury in a frontcourt that also has Collison, Wilcox, and Thomas. If they're going to make a quick turnaround to being a playoff team in the next few years, they need one of these guys to develop into a defensive presence at the very least, and hopefully some semblance of an offensive force. 
e of the best prospects of the last decade fall into their laps in the draft. All in all, a pretty good offseason for the Sonics.
