Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.
Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.
I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-####, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.
In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.
Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.
Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.
Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.
It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.
Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.
Coach: Gregg Popovich 2006-2007 Record: 58-24 06-07 Expected Record: 60-22 Offensive Rating: 109.3 (5th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 99.8 (2nd in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 52.1% (2nd in NBA) Possessions per 48: 89.8 (27th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Tim Duncan remains the one player I would want above all if I had to win a championship this year. The truly elite post players who dominate both ends can be counted on one hand, and Ducan is the best of them all. He's one of the 10 greatest players of all time, and he shows no signs of slowing down. There's not a more consistently excellent defensive player on the planet, and though he isn't a prolific scorer, he still scares the #### out of you in the playoffs because he can drop 30-20 on you without breaking a sweat.
I hate to make a judgment on just the playoffs, but it looks for all the world like Tony Parker made The Jump in the Finals last year. He eviscerated a really good Cavs team (4th best defensive team in the league, and they were particularly good against PGs), just getting to the rim at will and showcasing an solid jumpshot. Overall last year he had easily his best year, and he' keeps getting better.
I wonder if Ginobili will end up getting the bulk of the starts at shooting guard, or if he'll end up coming off the bench for the most part. The rotation of Manu, Finley, and Barry at the 2 is as good as any in the league. Manu brings an up-tempo, gunslinger style that the team sorely needs. Barry is one of the game's best spot-up shooters and he's got excellent court vision.
Horry continues to be an excellent sub in limited minutes, and while he doesn't do a whole lot during the regular season, his defensive presence and shooting range are invaluable in the playoffs.
Bonner and Udoka are kind of being groomed up as successors to Horry and Bowen. I'd expect them to get a decent chunk of minutes this year to keep the old guys fresh for the playoffs.
X-Factor: Oberto and Elson - Oberto is the more polished interior player. Elson is the more athletic, dynamic defender. If only San Antonio could combine them into one supercenter. The Spurs would love for Elson to continue to develop as a defensive presence and finisher to complement Duncan, though they'll probably continue to platoon equally like they did last year. The contributions of Elson and Oberto were a big reason why the Spurs were so good last year, since San Antonio had just been getting by with Rasho Nesterovic (who basically defines the term "big stiff") ever since The Admiral retired. With a full year of playing time in the Spurs' system for both of them, I'd expect the two-headed monster at center to see improved production.
It's really amazing the way the Spurs keep their roster together. They've got the best front office in sports. They return an amazing 98% of their minutes played from last year.
Overview
Contrary to popular belief, the Spurs were actually the best team in the regular season last year. They had the best margin of victory and were one of the most consistent teams in the league. They came into the playoffs without as much hype as Dallas and Phoenix, but they executed like they usually do and came away with another title. Sure, they caught a break against Phoenix, but they won all the other series convincingly, including their absolute decimation of the Cavs. They were a great defensive team, and a better offensive team than people usually give them credit for. They don't get many offensive rebounds, but they shoot a very high percentage and they take great care of the ball, which makes them a very effective offensive team. They also had maybe the best bench in the entire league. Ginobili (at times), Barry, Horry, Elson, and Vaughn are all very good backups who can provide different looks for the team. There aren't many teams out there with more balance than the Spurs had last year.
Prediction
I'm convinced that the Spurs have to be the prohibitive favorites to win this season. After they won last year, there were a slew of stories about how the Spurs can't be considered a dynasty because they haven't won back-to-back championships yet. We also got a bunch of stories about how good and underappreciated Duncan is. I think this year the Spurs will be playing to prove their place in history, and that TD will take down another MVP award as they run towards the title. They kept their entire core and added a strong backup SF in Udoka. Nobody has more balance, experience, and chemistry than the Spurs, and the presence of Duncan still puts them on a different level than everyone else.
I'm loving having cable TV in the dorm room. I've watched the Team USA vs. Canada game, part of the Argentina vs. Mexico game, and the Team USA vs. Brazil game. Sure, the games involving the US aren't exactly compelling basketball, but it's interesting to see players that I don't usually get a look at, and also to see how the US players fit into a system full of stars. Some things I saw...
- If I were George Karl, I'd be trying as hard as possible to duplicate the international style of play in Denver's offense, cause Melo is a monster in the international game. He plays well off the ball and has such a versatile game that he's almost impossible to stop. Just check out these lines from the 4 US games:
16 MIN - 17 PTs 17 MIN - 22 PTs 18 MIN - 25 PTs 17 MIN - 21 PTs
That's just obscene. Seriously, I realize the competition they're playing against, but that's nasty. With a full season to mesh together, I would be very scared of the Nuggets. They have 2 elite scorers and a great defensive center, they're absolutely a championship contender.
- Olu Famutimi was the only player on Team Canada who looked remotely like he belonged on the same floor as the US players. Sam Dalembert was a complete non-factor, but Famutimi (who is currently playing in the D-League) was a dynamic player
- I think Luis Scola is going to be a huge asset for the Rockets. He's a skilled player, but he's gritty and works hard on every play. From what I saw, he has a solid jumpshot and a good passing eye for a big man. He's also much more athletic than I thought, and rebounds very well.
- Nene looked terrible. Really, really terrible. He's gained weight since the end of the NBA season, and he missed easy opportunities on multiple occasions.
- I really like Tiago Splitter. After watching him against the US, I'm shocked that he wasn't picked sooner in the draft. He's very athletic and an excellent ball-handler for a guy his size. He took Carmelo Anthony to the hoop multiple times from the elbow area, and Melo isn't lacking in the quickness department. To think of him on the Spurs a year from now is scary.
- Kobe is stunningly good when he wants to be. We all know he's the best offensive player in the league, but when he wants to be, he's an incredible defender too. The fact of the matter is that if Kobe comes out and plays hard, the Lakers are a playoff team next year, if he sulks through the season, they'll be terrible.
- I love Jason Kidd.
Other thoughts on the NBA offseason:
- Other than practically giving away Luis Scola to a division rival, I really like the Spurs' offseason. The acquisition of Ime Udoka and the signing of 2005 first round pick Ian Mahinmi, in addition to resigning basically everyone makes them look like the favorites to repeat, as well as having very solid future prospects.
- Orlando signed Adonal Foyle to replace Darko, and he'll probably give them about the same contributions they got from Darko last year, but for way less money than they'd be paying Darko. They overpaid for Rashard, but they'll definitely be better this year.
- I still think that Phoenix should've gone for KG, but other than that they've had a very solid offseason. Grant Hill was a great pickup, and he'll even help give Nash some rest because he can run the point from the SF position. D.J. Strawberry was a steal as late as they got him, I guarantee he gets some burn next year.
- The Grizzlies are my sleepers for next year. They've got great young talent at every position, and I think they'll really work in Marc Iavaroni's Phoenix-style system. I love that they went out and got Gasol's Spanish team buddy Juan Carlos Navarro.
- I didn't like Houston's draft. I hated that they passed on a bunch of very talented power forwards to reach for an undersized point guard (Aaron Brooks). However, they've had a very good offseason overall. They took a position that was a huge weakness (PG) and made it into a strength, with Steve Francis, Mike James, and Brooks. The starter from last year Rafer "Skip 2 My Lou" Alston, will be 3rd or 4th on the depth chart. They've also significantly improved their PF position by brining in Luis Scola, Jackie Butler, and Carl Landry to replace Juwan Howard. If Yao stays healthy and McGrady can play 60-65 games and be healthy in the playoffs, they're absolutely a legit contender.
- I don't like that Dallas did nothing to shake up their team. Coming off 2 consecutive postseason chokes (Yes, I know the Warriors were a bad matchup. No, I don't care. Losing to an 8 seed is a choke), they needed to make a move, and they didn't.
- James Posey was a great pickup for Boston. They desperately needed to pick up a backup small forward, and Posey is a solid defensive player who makes perimeter shots.
One last note. Hoff and I are going to be finishing up the NBA Legends Competition on Wednesday. I'm thinking arguments due at 5:00 PM EST, and voting will go for 2 days and end at 5:00 PM EST on Friday. Let me know if that's an issue for you Hoff. For the rest of you, tune in Wednesday and vote for whose team of all-time greats is superior.
Really, the NBA astounds me sometimes. It seems that teams never learn their lesson when it comes to free agents. It's not really that hard guys, just stop paying guys twice as much as they're worth and locking them up in long contracts. Ugh, I should be a GM, I really should.
The Rashard Lewis Deal
On the surface, this deal has a lot of logical things going for it. Grant Hill is headed out of town, and the Magic desperately need wing help. In addition, they've got to extend Dwight Howard next year, so this is the last real chance they get to play the free agent market for a while. Lewis is a versatile scorer, and his perimeter shooting should help open things up for Howard (seen here defending his future teammate). However, the problem is that Orlando is paying Lewis superstar money, and he isn't a superstar. He's a very good player, but he's not going to be the star on a championship team. Now, the Magic might be able to work this out in the end because they have Howard there, but as a general principle, it's a bad idea to pay franchise money to a guy who isn't a franchise player (as Indiana and Boston have found out with O'Neal and Pierce). While a guy like Duncan is worth it, a second tier star like Lewis is going to end up crippling your cap space with a contract like that, and you eventually won't be able to acquire anymore pieces to flesh out your team. Now, if Howard develops into the next Shaq over the next few years and Orlando ends up getting a title out of this pair, then you can throw this out the window. More likely situation? The Magic get to the point where they can't quite make it over the hump, but their lack of cap space around their two stars prevents them from improving. I love Lewis as a fit for the Magic, but I wouldn't have maxed him out in order to get him.
The Mid-Level Shooter Exception
Apparently, the thing to do at the moment is to sign one-dimensional shooters who have had one good year to the full mid-level exception. Jason Kapono got $24 mil for 4 years from the Raptors, and Matt Carroll got $27 mil for 6 years to resign with the Bobcats (not actually a use of their mid-level exception since they have cap space, but about the same $$$ amount). At least the Kapono signing makes some sense. The Raptors needed a SF to replace Mo Pete, and they needed a perimeter shooter. Hence, Kapono makes sense, and they did only sign him for 4 years, which isn't too bad. That said, Kapono wasn't ever even a decent player until last year, and he's not gonna give you anything beyond being a shooter. $6 mil a year is a bit steep for a guy as one-dimensional as he is. The Carroll signing makes no sense to me at all. I realize shooters are in demand, had done basically nothing before coming out as a shooting specialist last year for the Bobcats. Not only that, but they just traded for Jason Richardson who is going to take most of the minutes at SG. Carroll is a terrible defender, a one-dimensional offensive player, and not a position of need. You're giving this guy nearly $5 mil a year for 6 years? This is a deal that will probably look really ugly down the road.
He Gets It From His Dad
I'm a big fan of the Lakers resigning Luke Walton. $5 mil a year for a guy as versatile and effective as Walton is practically a steal. The length of the deal (6 years) is cause for concern, but I don't even think Walton will fall off that much as he ages. His game is based around fundamentals and passing, not athleticism, which is a good indicator that his performance won't drop that much as he enters his 30s. He's great in the triangle and a perfect complement for a guy like Kobe. He's certainly not the answer to all their problems, but he's about as good a role player as you're going to find. I really like this signing, it makes a lot of sense to me. Now if only the Lakers could avoid picking up huge contracts on guys like Vlad and Kwame, then we'd be getting somewhere.
Phoenix Bound
The Suns made quite possibly the best free agent signing of the offseason by getting Grant Hill to ink to a 2-year deal at practically no cost using their bi-annual exception. Before signing the deal, the Suns consulted with Hill, his agent, and his left ankle, which says that it promises it will be good this time around and stop screwing with Grant's career. Specifics of the contract are 2 years, $3.8 million, and an unlimited supply of ankle braces and asprin.
The Spurs Are Smarter Than Everyone Else...Again
As if it weren't enough that the reigning champs have the best coach in the business, the best power forward of all time, and the best international scouts (can anybody else match finds like Parker, Ginobili, Oberto, and soon-to-be Luis Scola?), they also have the league's smartest approach to free agents. See, this is a novel idea. They actually pay players what they're worth. Funny, you'd think that might catch on. Another thing that the Spurs do is that they don't sign you to a long term deal unless you're a star (i.e. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili). The result of this is that the Spurs very rarely get caught with terrible contracts, cause if someone isn't performing, they let him walk. It's amazing to me that teams don't learn from their example and continue to sign role players to huge deals. By resigning Fabricio Oberto, Matt Bonner, and Jacque Vaughn all to short, decently priced deals, the Spurs have kept their whole championship team together and put themselves in great position for next year. Keep in mind that this Spurs team is as good as it is, and they still have 2 of the top post players in Europe (Scola and Tiago Splitter) who can come over in future years. There's not a better managed team in professional sports than the Spurs.
The long-awaited draft is over, so now its time to take a look at the results. It was actually a rather subdued draft until we got to the 18th pick or so, with the only real surprise being the Ray Allen trade. After that, things started going all kinds of crazy as Portland began to wheel and deal. Anyway, here's my team-by-team analysis of the draft. It's not grades, cause I don't like grades (btw, if we were to give teams a GPA based on their draft grades over time, what would Atlanta's be? 1.5? 2?). I'm going to give either a thumbs up, thumbs down, or on the fence for each team. So, starting with the Western Conference...
Now, I understand that Dallas didn't have a lot to work with here, but they didn't exactly make the most of it. I'll give them the last two, cause there's not that much talent that late, but they took Fazekas, who is quite possibly the worst athlete in the draft, in front of Glen Davis and Josh McRoberts, both much better talents. I don't see Fazekas being any kind of player in the NBA, he's just too slow, and slow big guys whose trademark is their shooting don't have a great track record.
Big thumbs up to the Warriors, who had my second favorite draft (behind Portland's masterpiece). Not only did they manage to grab some fantastic talent, but they got rid of Jason Richardson's contract too. I questioned their selection of Bellinelli instead of Jason Smith, but it makes sense with the acquisition of Wright. Take note that there's still a possibility that Yi will end up here for a package including Wright, though Milwaukee looks like they want to keep him. Wright is a perfect player for them. He has very little range to his game, but he's money near the hoop and he's a very good shot-blocker. At worst, he's a much more talented and athletic version of Andris Biedrins. Bellinelli is a dynamic 2-guard who has great range and can slash, but he's streaky (which should mean he fits in perfectly here). Lasme was one of my favorite second round guys, and I can see him contributing immediately as an energy/defense guy for the Warriors. Very good draft.
I really don't get their draft. They had McRoberts and Davis staring them in the face at both 26 and 31, and they passed them both times for inferior players. Brooks was a solid sleeper, but that's only a good pick if you don't reach for it, and they reached big-time for him. What's more puzzling is that they didn't even reach for a need, they've already got Mike James and Rafer Alston at the point and a gaping hole at PF. Landry is a gritty player, but he's undersized and can't rebound. McRoberts would've been perfect here, I'm really puzzled that they passed on him.
L.A. Clippers - Thumbs Up
Picks - Al Thornton (14), Jared Jordan (45)
The Clippers basically just sat back and took the best value that was available, and they ended up with 2 really good players who are both good fits. Thornton allows them to put the disgruntled Corey Maggette on the trading block. He's a terrific athlete, and I've been saying all along he's the second coming of Shawn Marion. He was easily the best value available for them. Jordan is a pure point who should be able to back up Sam Cassell right away. His ceiling as a player isn't very high, but he's a smart guy who should be able to carve out a niche in the league. I would've gone with Taurean Green there, but I can't fault them for taking Jordan.
L.A. Lakers - Thumbs Down
Picks - Javaris Crittenton (19), Sun Yue (40), Marc Gasol (48)
This rating is contingent on them keeping Kobe Bryant, which they have repeatedly said that they want to do. Were the Lakers set on building for the future, I would be ok with the Crittenton pick. He's the ultimate high-reward point guard prospect, with a good shooting touch, suberb athleticism, and a 6'5 frame. However, he's at least 2 years away from being able to run a team, and I doubt he'll contribute much next year. I'm not sold on Yue. From what I saw of him, he's not a great athlete and he didn't really impress me that much. They did get a steal in Gasol, who most mocks had up at the top of the second round.
Memphis Grizzlies - Thumbs Up
Picks - Mike Conley (4)
Not much to say about this. They took Conley, who was the best point guard in the draft and, in my opinion, the best player on the board at #4. He got better and better as the year went on last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a big contributor this year for Memphis. He's impossibly quick and has tremendous floor vision. Absolutely the right pick for the Griz.
Minnesota Timberwolves - On The Fence
Picks - Corey Brewer (7), Chris Richard (41)
As far as their draft goes, I think they made the right moves. Brewer was the obvious pick when he fell into their laps at #7, and Richard is a great value in the second round, he would be a first rounder if he'd played anywhere but Florida. However, I can't help but feel like the Timberwolves wasted their best chance to rebuild by not getting a KG deal done. They were adamant about what they wanted in return for him, and as a result of that they miss the chance to grab draft picks in the deepest draft in recent memory. I'm fine with the picks they made, but what they didn't do with KG devalues this for me.
New Orleans Hornets - Thumbs Up
Picks - Julian Wright (13), Adam Haluska (43)
They get a thumbs up because Wright at #13 is an absolute steal. He could've easily gone 6 picks higher than that. He doesn't fit a need quite as well as Nick Young would've, but there's no question that he was the best talent left on the board. On potential alone, he's probably the 3rd best guy in the draft. He had games at Kansas where he absolutely destroyed the opposing team. If the Hornets can get some consistency out of him, this is a great pick. Haluska was a surprise, as he wasn't really on anyone's radar. Really though, once you get into the last 20 picks, everything is a stretch.
Phoenix Suns - Thumbs Down
Picks - Alando Tucker (29), D. J. Strawberry (59)
Is there anything more depressing than seeing your team trade away a first round pick for cash? Yeah, the Suns have done that 4 straight times. Not only that, but they then took Tucker at 29, who is a PF in a SF's body. Oh yeah, he can't really shoot either. They had McRoberts and Gabe Pruitt sitting there at 29, and they took Alando Tucker instead. Ugh. The Suns have really made some disappointing moves in the last 2-3 years, and it's a shame cause I think their window for winning is closing. They had the chance here to either take players or trade for players who could bolster a championship level team, and they blew it. I do like the D.J. Strawberry pick at 59 though. He'll carve out a spot in the league as a lock-down defender.
Not only did the Blazers make an absolute killing with their picks but they also managed to bring another piece over in the Zach Randolph trade, Channing Frye. This is the best draft I've ever seen a team have. They drafted a franchise center in Oden, they got rid of head-case Randolph and his monster contract and brought in another good young big in Frye, they drafted two lottery-level talents in Fernandez and Koponen who will continue to mature overseas (something they had to do with all the guys they were bringing in with this draft), they got the steal of the draft in McRoberts at 37 (who is a perfect complementary post guy and also a good friend of Oden's), and they picked up Green about 20 spots later than most people had him ranked. That, my friends, is one heck of a draft. Here's the really scary thing about this team. By trading Randolph's contract for Francis's shorter deal, the Blazers made sure that they will be well under the cap in 2 years when guys like Aldridge and Roy start signing extensions. They've done so well building with young talent, and it's entirely possible that they will be able to keep all of it. Can anybody in the league match the young talent on their frontline with Oden, Aldridge, Frye, and McRoberts? This team is ridiculously scary.
Sacramento Kings - Thumbs Down
Picks - Spencer Hawes (10)
It's not that I don't think Hawes is a bad player. He's probably more-or-less the next Brad Miller, and Miller has had a very solid career with a few All-Star games tossed in there. However, with all the rebuilding that Sacramento has to do, they needed a high-ceiling kind of guy, and Hawes isn't it. Julian Wright would've been the much better pick here.
San Antonio Spurs - Thumbs Up
Picks - Tiago Splitter (28), Marcus Williams (33), Giorgos Printezis (58)
It's just not fair sometimes. The best team in the league adds a lottery-level talent who will wait a year before coming over. Splitter was a perfect fit for them, and they'll be reaping the benefits in two years. Williams is a great prospect with a ton of potential, but he never put it together in college. I was a little surprised that they didn't go with Derrik Byars, but if anyone can get Williams to put things together, it's the Spurs.
Seattle Supersonics - Thumbs Up
Picks - Kevin Durant (2), Jeff Green (5)
Big props to Seattle for being gutsy with their moves. Trading Ray Allen wasn't even something I was thinking about, but it makes a lot of sense. The word from Seattle is that they want to try and resign Rashard Lewis and be able to throw Green, Durant, and Lewis out there all at once. It's a remarkable idea, and I think that they could pull it off. There are very few players in the league versatile and athletic enough to run the 2,3,and 4 spots, but these guys could do it. Can you imagine trying to match up with that? Anyway, even if they don't bring Lewis back, Green is a great compliment to Durant. Overlooked in the Allen for Green deal is that they also brought in Delonte West, who is a solid player and should be the starter at the point for them next year.
Utah Jazz - Thumbs Up
Picks - Morris Almond (25), Kyrylo Fesenko (38)
I have no opinion on Fesenko, but Almond was a great pick at 25. He was obviously the best talent left on the board, and he fills the Jazz's need for a perimeter shooter. Considering where they were picking, the Jazz did a solid job.
Just as a final note, is anyone else as excited as I am that Ray Allen and Allen Ray are on the same team? I've been waiting for this since I learned that Villanova was bringing in a freshman named Allen Ray. It's fate, it had to happen, the basketball gods brought it about.
It must be great to be the Spurs. They've got the core of their team locked up for the next 3 years, and veteran free agents would kill to be on their team. It's almost unfair for the rest of the league. Remember that they've also got Manu's teammate on the Argentinian National Team and 2-time Spanish League MVP Luis Scola waiting in the wings. If all the Spurs did was resign Jaques Vaughn and Fabricio Oberto (which shouldn't be hard), they'd still have to be the favorites going into next year. In addition to that, they can try to use their mid-level exception to pursue a veteran free agent desperate for a championship (for example, if I were Grant Hill, I would be booking my plane ticket to San Antonio right now). So, who should the Spurs be looking at in the draft? Well, my favorite guy for them is Jared Dudley, at either 28 or 33. People are calling him the Josh Howard of this year's draft, and while I wouldn't go that far, I still think he's being overlooked and he's a perfect fit for the Spurs. Also, don't be surprised if they go for an international guy and store him overseas for a few years.
What They Should Do: Resign Vaughn and Oberto, make an offer for Hill, and draft Dudley.
What They Will Do: They'll do whatever is best. Of any franchise in professional sports, I wouldn't trust any of them more than I would the Spurs. They have a definite plan and they almost always seem to be making the right move.
Seattle Supersonics
Roster For 07-08
PG - Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson SG - Ray Allen SF - Damien Wilkeis, Mickael Gelabale PF - Nick Collison, Chris Wilcox C - Robert Swift, Saer Sene, Johan Petro
The Sonics are in luck, even they can't screw this draft up. In the last 3 drafts, they've taken 3 consecutive 7 footers for whom the term "project" is being generous. However, even the Sonics can't screw up taking Kevin Durant. As if that weren't enough, there's more good news for Sonics fans. Apparently Atlanta is very seriously considering trading the number 11 pick for Luke Ridnour. That's not a joke, they're really considering that. Man, I love the Hawks, they're always good for a laugh.
What They Should Do: Take Durant, trade Ridnour for the 11th pick and take Acie Law or Spencer Hawes. In the second round, they can look at Ramon Sessions, Taurean Green, Marc Gasol, and Alando Tucker.
What They Will Do: Even Seattle can't scrrew this draft up, can they?
Toronto Raptors
Roster For 07-08
PG - T.J. Ford, Jose Calderon SG - Anthony Parker, Juan Dixon SF - Joey Graham, Carlos Delfino PF - Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Jorge Garbajosa, Kris Humphries C - Rasho Nesterovic
Picks
None
I have liked the Raptors since they drafted Bosh as their franchise cornerstone. This doesn't figure to be a particlarly busy offseason for Toronto though. They don't really have any cap space, nor do they have any draft picks. I'm not even really going to address them, cause they're not really looking like they'll do anything this offseason. That's not a bad thing though, cause they're a young team that is gelling and improving more each year.
Utah Jazz
Roster For 07-08
PG - Deron Williams, Derek Fisher SG - Gordan Giricek, Ronnie Brewer SF - Andrei Kirilenko, Matt Harpring PF - Carlos Boozer, Paul Millsap C - Mehmet Okur, Jarron Collins
Picks
1 - 25 (25 overall) 2 - 25 (55 overall)
Not a whole lot of holes in this Jazz squad. They need to get Ronnie Brewer more minutes next year because, quite frankly, Gordan Giricek might be the worst defender in the league. They really need to trade Kirilenko, but he's got a terrible contract and his value is at an all-time low. At this point, it might be better to just hope he can turn it around next year instead of trading him for way less than what he's worth. At any rate, they need to be looking at someone in the draft who can help back up at the wing position, either SG or SF. The best options for them are probably Marco Bellinelli, Derrick Byars, or Rudy Fernandez.
What They Should Do: Be willing to trade Kirilenko, but don't give him away for nothing. He's still a very solid complementary player with the potential to be very good, and his trade value is very low at this point. Take one of the guys listed at #25.
What They Will Do: They're in the range of teams that might be looking at Daequan Cook, who I think is one of the most overrated prospects in the draft. I can't see him working well with Jerry Sloan, so I hope they avoid him with their first-rounder.
Washington Wizards
Roster For 07-08
PG - Gilbert Arenas, Antonio Daniels SG - Jarvis Hayes SF - Caron Butler PF - Antwan Jamison, Darius Songaila, Etan Thomas C - Brendan Haywood
Picks
1 - 16 (16 overall) 2 - 17 (47 overall)
Yikes. Well, probably the best thing you can say about this team is that Caron Butler has a good contract. Other than that, there isn't a lot to get excited about. Jamison's contract ends this year, Arenas has said that he'll opt out after next year, and the rest of the roster is filled with overpaid role players who are signed for 3 years. There's not really any young talent outside of Butler and Arenas, and they probably won't be keeping Arenas. Not a whole lot of hope for the future there. There's not a ton they can do about it right now though, and they'll probably still be a contender in the east next year. As far as their draft pick, they could use a wing guy, preferably one with some serious potential. Thaddeus Young fits the bill, and I don't think I've seen a mock draft that doesn't have him going to the Wizards. USC's Nick Young would also be a good option if he's still there.
What They Should Do: Try to get rid of Jamison for some young talent/picks before they lose him to free agency. I doubt they can get rid of him, but it wouldn't hurt to try. Take one of the Youngs with their pick.
What They Will Do: Eh, who knows, this is the same franchise that took Kwame Brown with the #1 pick. It's the NBA, anything could happen.
The deadline for withdrawing from the draft is today, so we get to decide find out if Georgetown will be a final four contender next year, if Georgia Tech will have any hope of winning games, if Cal will threaten the big dogs in the Pac-10, and if Sean Singletary will be first-team All-ACC twice in a row.
Top pitching prospect Yovani Gallardo makes his debut for the Brewers. Scouts are comparing Gallardo to Fransisco Liriano from last year. Reports are he's got a mid-90s fastball and an absolutely devastating curve. More exciting for me is that I've got Gallardo on my strat-o-matic team (for those of you who not familiar with strat-o-matic, I'll probably write a post about my team a little later and explain it), and the faster my elite prospect gets me good starts, the better.
If you haven't seen it yet, go to ESPN.com and check out the video of Prince Fielder's inside the park home run. I don't think I've ever seen a centerfielder misjudge a ball that badly. Fielder, all 260 pounds of him, can't even slow down as he passes home and is still running when he hits the dugout. High comedy.
I'm not a big golf fan, but my friend pointed this out to me today. Tiger Woods is 12 for 12 on majors when he's leading going into the final day. Pretty impressive. However, he's never won one coming from behind on that final day. That's unbelievable to me. For all the hype that Tiger has gotten (deservedly), he's never made a final day comeback at a major.
You know, I thought it was a pretty well-acknowledged point that Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward of all time, but I've been amazed at how many people will vehemently argue that point. I might have to post about this soon.
I love statistics. I'm a basketball statistics nerd, and I've just gotten into it with baseball the last few years. It kills me that no one has come up with a decent defensive statistic in basketball. Blocks and steals are a poor indication of how good a defender somebody is. Hollinger over at ESPN has come up a slightly better statistic (points saved), but even that has huge holes in it. I'd love to see some sort of better defensive statistic. I also wonder why they plus/minus isn't a standard statistic for b-ball, it seems like it would be pretty useful.
Just on a random tangent, I was perusing Chad Ford's top 100 prospect list for the draft, and noticed that Glen Davis has been rising up that list. So, I clicked on Davis to see his profile, and the player similarity they mentioned was Oliver Miller. Now, I'm a big fan of Davis, but how are you a first rounder if your closest comparison is someone I've never heard of? (Just looked him up. Played for 6 different teams and averaged 7 and 5 for his 11 year career. meh)
My blog so far has been all about the NBA, but I promise, that will change. It just happens that there's nothing else exciting to blog about in the sports world right now. Anyway, with the season wrapped up, here are some final thoughts.
Cavs fans - Stop whining about officiating. Stop whining about how the league rigged things for the Spurs to win. You have absolutely no case. Everybody knew going in that you were going to lose, and you did. The only team that has a legitimate beef with the league is Phoenix, who got #### by a stupid rule. Just be happy you got to the finals and that you get to watch Lebron every night for the next 3 years.
Barring injury, the Spurs will be the prohibitive favorite again next year. It doesn't look like Phoenix is going to make a big move to improve since they're looking to cut costs, and the Mavericks are looking for all the world like a broken team in need of a change. The Spurs? They've got their big 3 locked up for 3 more years, and the only significant players they may lose this year are Oberto and Finley if they opt out of their deals (Finley won't, Oberto probably will). Parker and Ginobili continue to get better, Duncan is always brilliant, and they've got a few young players who have a lot of potential (James White, Jackie Butler).
I love the idea of this trade.
Z. Randolph to Chicago
#9 pick, sign&trade P.J. Brown, Chris Duhon to Portland.
Everybody wins here. Randolph immediately makes the Bulls the East favorite, as they add a legit 20-10 guy without giving up any of their talented young core. Ben Wallace is the perfect complement for Randolph becasue he covers his weaknesses, and the Bulls would have an actual low-post scoring threat. They'd be a legit title contender. Portland moves Randolph's huge contract and character problems, gets a pick they can use on a small forward to fill that hole (I love Thornton here) or Conley if he's still there. Brown is a good veteran mentor for Oden & Aldridge and Duhon is a solid backup at the point.
I love the way Portland has built through the draft, they're my team to watch over the offseason. If they made that trade, their young core could look like this.
PG - J. Jack SG - B. Roy SF - A. Thornton PF - L. Aldridge C - Oden Bench - M. Webster, C. Duhon, F. Jones, S. Rodriguez
That's a frighteningly good young core of players, especially on the defensive end. Jack is one of the league's better defenders at PG, Roy is no slouch, Thornton is the second coming of Shawn Marion, and Aldridge and Oden are both exceptional shot blockers. Not only that, but the LaFrentz deal comes off the books before any of those starters are up for resigning, and the Miles deal one year later. They could potentially have the cap room to keep this together for years. So keep an eye on Portland.
I know it's been said a lot already, but it's time for Detroit to rebuild. They're not going to win any more titles with that crew, and at best they're probably the 3rd best team in the conference next year. Don't prolong it Joe D., the early you start rebuilding, the faster you'll be cometitive again.
A team I like to surprise people next year is Milwaukee. They got hit hard with injuries last year, but there's a lot of talent on that team, certainly enough to contend in the East.
I know it won't happen, but how awesome would it be if Seattle resigned Lewis and just built the team as a run and gun, high-scoring offense revolving around Allen, Lewis, and Durant. I would love to see that team play, they'd be absolutely unguardable.
If Cleveland can't find a shooter this offseason to play with Lebron, it will be an absolute travesty.
If K.C. Jones is in the Hall of Fame, Robert Horry has to get in.
I think Duncan and Lebron battle it out as the frontrunners for the MVP trophy next year.
I remember reading an article in Sports Illustrated in 2001 that was all about the new generation of players that was changing the face of the playoffs. The group of Vince Carter, Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Tracy Mcgrady, Baron Davis, Kevin Garnett and the rest were entering the peak of their career and promising to give us compelling matchups for the rest of the decade. This was the dynamic group of players who would fill the void left by the Jordan generation, who were all either retired or soon to retire (Barkley, Stockton, Malone, Hardaway, Reggie, Pippen). Fast forward to now. We're on the other side of most of these players' prime years, and between injuries, dissappointing performances, and managerial incompetence, that generation has left us mostly dissappointed. The decade has been dominated by Shaq, the Pistons' team-oriented style, and the one star of this generation who has lived up to his billing, Tim Duncan. As the torch seems to be passing to the next wave of stars (Lebron, Wade, Melo, Parker, Bosh), its time to take a look at where there players stand in the grand scheme of things. What is the historical legacy of this group, which popularized jumping to the pros after 1 year or just straight out of high school.
In 1996, the NBA came out with a list of the 50 greatest players in its history. That was when most of these guys were just starting their careers. Of those 50, only Shaq is still an active player. So, the question is, who from this generation of players deserves a spot on that list? Keep in mind, we're not just talking about who's going to be in the Hall of Fame. We're talking about the best of the best, the guys who you're going to look back on in 20 years and be proud to tell your kids/grandkids, "yeah, I saw him play". The guys we choose have to be good enough to knock one of the guys on that list off. How will this generation be remembered? Who deserves to be called "the greatest"?
There should be absolutely no doubt about this one. He'll go down in history as the best power forward ever, and he's one of the two most dominant players of the decade. He's unarguably one of the top 50, and you can certainly make a case for him being top 10.
Along with Duncan, I think he's the only unarguable inclusion on this list. When taking into account the era that Wilt played in, Kobe might be the greatest pure scorer of all time. Whether you love him or hate him (there seems to be no middle ground), you have to be in awe of his brilliance. The most talented player in the league, bar none.
He will always be remembered for breaking open the HS to pro floodgates and for his landmark contract with the Wolves. The verdict is still out as to whether he will always be remembered as the guy who couldn't quite get it done. Regardless of whether or not Garnett ever does get his ring, he's still proven to be a remarkable basketball player. I'm willing to overlook his playoff struggles in light of his being the most versatile player ever to play the game. He's been stuck on a bad team for the past few years, but it wasn't long ago that we were debating whether he or Duncan was the better player.
I went back and forth on this one because I find it very hard to look at AI's career objectively. He's one of the most prolific scorers of all time, but he's certainly not the most efficient scorer ever to play. He's been criticized for his attitude towards practice and he's been criticized for the amount of shots he takes. However, he's one of the most competitive players in the game and plays completely without fear. To watch Iverson is to watch heart triumph over stature. At the end of the day, his amazing ability to score at a mere 6 feet tall and his playoff run where he nearly single-handedly carried the Sixers to the finals are enough for him to make the list.
On the Brink (likely Hall of Famers, but not top 50)
Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Steve Nash
Dirk Nowitzki
Nowitzki deserves a special note because I think that more than anyone, he has the potential to jump up this list. He's really just entered his prime as a player and has hit a turning point in his career after the first round loss to the Warriors this year. His place in history will be determined by how he responds to the accusations that he's a weak player.
So, the first post of the sports blog that I finally decided to start writing. Who am I? I'm a college student who annoys his friend and family far too much with his constant sports ramblings, so I've joined the world of bloggers, as to annoy the entirety of the internet instead. I'm mostly an avid basketball fan, though I dabble in other sports as well. I've become a much bigger follower of baseball since joining an NL-only strat-o-matic league a year ago. Anyway, that's about it for me. I'm still looking for a good name for this, since this one sounds a bit too much like a play on Bill Simmons' "The Sports Guy" blog. Any suggestions are appreciated.
Right, now that that's done, I can go ahead and write something worth reading.
The topic on hand is the NBA Finals, also known as the Spur's victory lap. The hype in the Finals so far has revolved around Lebron's ascention and subsequent dissappointing game 1, the flop war between Ginobili and Varejao, and the fact that the Cavs have no hope. Between the Lebronapalooza and the Stoudamire/Diaw suspensions, its been lost on everybody that the Spurs are really sealing their place as the dominant team of the decade. Much like the Lakers' romp through the playoffs in 2001 (with a finals that had a ton of parallels to this one), the Spurs winning their 3rd title in 5 years (4 in 9 seasons, but we won't count the short 99 season) puts them firmly in the "dynasty" category. When you think about "dynasty" the Spurs don't pop into your head as quickly as those Lakers do, lacking the dominant on-court presence and off-court personalities of Shaq and Kobe and outside of the bright lights of LA, but they've been just as dominant and have sustained that dominance for far longer. The Shaq/Kobe Lakers team had a 5 year run (99-04) where they went to 4 finals and captured 3 straight titles, and had a 70% winning percentage. These current Spurs have had a 9 year run (from 99-07, ignoring the strike-shortened season) where they went to 3 finals and won 2 (3 if they close out the Cavs) with a 71% winning percentage. Not only that, but they show no signs of stopping. How impressive is that? Well, the Celtics dynasty that ran for 13 years (56-69) and is widely considered the greatest dynasty of all time had a winning percentage of 70.5%. Now, they also had the titles to go with it, but nevertheless, what the Spurs have done is impressive. So, while you're watching these finals and waiting for Lebron to leap into the history books, you might want to take note of how he's being shut down by one of the greatest defensive teams in the history of the game. You might want to appreciate how the underappreciated Greg Popovich adds to his Hall of Fame resume by coaching circles around Mike Brown. Lastly, you might want to take a minute to realize that you're watching the greatest power forward ever to play the game work his craft better than anyone ever has. Yeah, we all know they're good, but it's about time to give the Spurs their historical due. Tim Duncan and the Spurs are cementing their legacy, maybe Lebron can take note.
ion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
d he shows no signs of slowing down. There's not a more consistently excellent defensive player on the planet, and though he isn't a prolific scorer, he still scares the 
orely needs. Barry is one of the game's best spot-up shooters and he's got excellent court vision. 
fective offensive team. They also had maybe the best bench in the entire league. Ginobili (at times), Barry, Horry, Elson, and Vaughn are all very good backups who can provide different looks for the team. There aren't many teams out there with more balance than the Spurs had last year.
a monster in the international game. He plays well off the ball and has such a versatile game that he's almost impossible to stop. Just check out these lines from the 4 US games:
ndler for a guy his size. He took Carmelo Anthony to the hoop multiple times from the elbow area, and Melo isn't lacking in the quickness department. To think of him on the Spurs a year from now is scary.
uis Scola, Jackie Butler, and Carl Landry to replace Juwan Howard. If Yao stays healthy and McGrady can play 60-65 games and be healthy in the playoffs, they're absolutely a legit contender.
On the surface, this deal has a lot of logical things going for it. Grant Hill is headed out of town, and the Magic desperately need wing help. In addition, they've got to extend Dwight Howard next year, so this is the last real chance they get to play the free agent market for a while. Lewis is a versatile scorer, and his perimeter shooting should help open things up for Howard (seen here defending his future teammate). However, the problem is that Orlando is paying Lewis superstar money, and he isn't a superstar. He's a very good player, but he's not going to be the star on a championship team. Now, the Magic might be able to work this out in the end because they have Howard there, but as a general principle, it's a bad idea to pay franchise money to a guy who isn't a franchise player (as Indiana and Boston have found out with O'Neal and Pierce). While a guy like Duncan is worth it, a second tier star like Lewis is going to end up crippling your cap space with a contract like that, and you eventually won't be able to acquire anymore pieces to flesh out your team. Now, if Howard develops into the next Shaq over the next few years and Orlando ends up getting a title out of this pair, then you can throw this out the window. More likely situation? The Magic get to the point where they can't quite make it over the hump, but their lack of cap space around their two stars prevents them from improving. I love Lewis as a fit for the Magic, but I wouldn't have maxed him out in order to get him.
Apparently, the thing to do at the moment is to sign one-dimensional shooters who have had one good year to the full mid-level exception. Jason Kapono got $24 mil for 4 years from the Raptors, and Matt Carroll got $27 mil for 6 years to resign with the Bobcats (not actually a use of their mid-level exception since they have cap space, but about the same $$$ amount). At least the Kapono signing makes
some sense. The Raptors needed a SF to replace Mo Pete, and they needed a perimeter shooter. Hence, Kapono makes sense, and they did only sign him for 4 years, which isn't too bad. That said, Kapono wasn't ever even a decent player until last year, and he's not gonna give you anything beyond being a shooter. $6 mil a year is a bit steep for a guy as one-dimensional as he is. The Carroll signing makes no sense to me at all. I realize shooters are in demand, had done basically nothing before coming out as a shooting specialist last year for the Bobcats. Not only that, but they just traded for Jason Richardson who is going to take most of the minutes at SG. Carroll is a terrible defender, a one-dimensional offensive player, and not a position of need. You're giving this guy nearly $5 mil a year for 6 years? This is a deal that will probably look really ugly down the road.
as Walton is practically a steal. The length of the deal (6 years) is cause for concern, but I don't even think Walton will fall off that much as he ages. His game is based around fundamentals and passing, not athleticism, which is a good indicator that his performance won't drop that much as he enters his 30s. He's great in the triangle and a perfect complement for a guy like Kobe. He's certainly not the answer to all their problems, but he's about as good a role player as you're going to find. I really like this signing, it makes a lot of sense to me.
Scola?), they also have the league's smartest approach to free agents. See, this is a novel idea. They actually pay players what they're worth. Funny, you'd think that might catch on. Another thing that the Spurs do is that they don't sign you to a long term deal unless you're a star (i.e. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili). The result of this is that the
Spurs very rarely get caught with terrible contracts, cause if someone isn't performing, they let him walk. It's amazing to me that teams don't learn from their example and continue to sign role players to huge deals. By resigning Fabricio Oberto, Matt Bonner, and Jacque Vaughn all to short, decently priced deals, the Spurs have kept their whole championship team together and put themselves in great position for next year. Keep in mind that this Spurs team is as good as it is, and they still have 2 of the top post players in Europe (Scola and Tiago Splitter) who can come over in future years. There's not a better managed team in professional sports than the Spurs.
