Coach: Reggie Theus 2006-2007 Record: 33-49 06-07 Expected Record: 36-46 Offensive Rating: 106.1 (15th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 108.1 (22nd in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 49.1% (19th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 94.8 (4th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Mike Bibby had his worst season as a King last year. He took a lot more three-pointers than he ever has in his career, and his shooting percentages dropped off drastically. Now, there's a chance that he just had an off-year, but it might be that he's lost a step as he approaches 30 and wasn't getting by people as easily. Bibby has a good jumpshot, and I think he'd be a great addition to a team like Cleveland who desperately needs a guy who can hit open jumpers, but I don't think he's a viable option as a playmaker anymore.
Kevin Martin almost reminds me of a young Reggie Miller. He's a great shooter (though he does have kind of a funny release), he's got that stringy build, and he's one of the best players in the league at getting himself easy shots off of runouts, screens, and backcuts. A lot of times he's simply labeled as a jump shooter, but he does a great job at getting himself easy shots and getting to the line. He's the kind of guy I'd love to have on my team, the kind of guy who can score 30 points in the flow of the offense and you don't realize it until you see the box score.
Artest is an excellent defensive player, but an overrated offensive player. For a guy who spends a lot of time operating in the post, he shoots a fairly low percentage. He's a very good defensive player and an average offensive player, but you also have to deal with all his personal problems. You really never know what's going to happen with Artest, he can be going along saying all the right things, and then suddenly he does something to get himself suspended for 10 games. His maniac intensity is a big part of what makes him effective as a player, but it gets him in trouble every year to varying degrees.
Shareef has been slowly dropping off for a while, but he really fell off the face of the earth last year. He carried a lot lighter load last year and was terribly inefficient.
Miller is another player who really fell off last year. He's never been a very good defender and he doesn't rebound particularly well, but he always made up for it by being a good shooter and passer out of the high post. Last year, he didn't shoot well at all and he played a lot less minutes than he has in the past.
I'm not buying stock in Mikki Moore. He had a career season in a contract year while playing with Jason Kidd. It's like the perfect storm of circumstances for fluke production.
I don't know how much I buy into Garcia and Douby being the future for the Kings. I think Kings fans are expecting a lot from two guys who were drafted 19th and 23rd and haven't done much particularly noteworthy in the league yet. Both can develop to be solid bench contributors, but I don't see them being starters on a playoff team.
I like Hawes, though I don't think he was the right pick for them. He's very much like a young Brad Miller, but he's a better low post scorer. He's not a great rebounder, but he was the most polished post scorer in the draft. Whenever he comes back from knee surgery, expect him to take a lot of Miller's minutes.
Overview
The Kings brought back basically the same team last year that went to the playoffs the year before, but they felt the very pronounced effects of an aging core of players. Outside of Kevin Martin, all of their main contributors suffered huge dropoffs in productivity. The result of this was a mediocre offensive team and a really bad defensive team. Various trade rumors swirled around Bibby and Artest during the season and then again this offseason, but neither player was moved. Really, besides the continued improvement of Martin, there weren't a lot of positives last year for Kings fans.
Prediction
Things do not look good for the Kings. Their core of players is not aging gracefully, and while it's possible that one of those guys just had a fluke down season, for most of them it's just that they've lost a step and aren't going to be as effective. The problem for the Kings is that Bibby has two more years on his big deal, and Thomas, Miller, and Shareef all have 3 years left. Those big contracts are going to really handcuff this team's ability to build towards the future unless they can dump them, and that's going to be hard to do. Martin is a great young player, but other than that there isn't a whole lot to get excited about. Hawes might be an all-star down the road, but he's not going to be a superstar. Garcia and Douby are mediocre at best. If I'm in the Kings front office, I'm trying desperately to dump Bibby and Artest while they still have value and see if I can't pick up some young talent, cap relief and draft picks, and at the same time put myself on a fast track to the top of the lottery. Sorry Kings fans, but the next few years might be a bit rough.
The long-awaited draft is over, so now its time to take a look at the results. It was actually a rather subdued draft until we got to the 18th pick or so, with the only real surprise being the Ray Allen trade. After that, things started going all kinds of crazy as Portland began to wheel and deal. Anyway, here's my team-by-team analysis of the draft. It's not grades, cause I don't like grades (btw, if we were to give teams a GPA based on their draft grades over time, what would Atlanta's be? 1.5? 2?). I'm going to give either a thumbs up, thumbs down, or on the fence for each team. So, starting with the Western Conference...
Now, I understand that Dallas didn't have a lot to work with here, but they didn't exactly make the most of it. I'll give them the last two, cause there's not that much talent that late, but they took Fazekas, who is quite possibly the worst athlete in the draft, in front of Glen Davis and Josh McRoberts, both much better talents. I don't see Fazekas being any kind of player in the NBA, he's just too slow, and slow big guys whose trademark is their shooting don't have a great track record.
Big thumbs up to the Warriors, who had my second favorite draft (behind Portland's masterpiece). Not only did they manage to grab some fantastic talent, but they got rid of Jason Richardson's contract too. I questioned their selection of Bellinelli instead of Jason Smith, but it makes sense with the acquisition of Wright. Take note that there's still a possibility that Yi will end up here for a package including Wright, though Milwaukee looks like they want to keep him. Wright is a perfect player for them. He has very little range to his game, but he's money near the hoop and he's a very good shot-blocker. At worst, he's a much more talented and athletic version of Andris Biedrins. Bellinelli is a dynamic 2-guard who has great range and can slash, but he's streaky (which should mean he fits in perfectly here). Lasme was one of my favorite second round guys, and I can see him contributing immediately as an energy/defense guy for the Warriors. Very good draft.
I really don't get their draft. They had McRoberts and Davis staring them in the face at both 26 and 31, and they passed them both times for inferior players. Brooks was a solid sleeper, but that's only a good pick if you don't reach for it, and they reached big-time for him. What's more puzzling is that they didn't even reach for a need, they've already got Mike James and Rafer Alston at the point and a gaping hole at PF. Landry is a gritty player, but he's undersized and can't rebound. McRoberts would've been perfect here, I'm really puzzled that they passed on him.
L.A. Clippers - Thumbs Up
Picks - Al Thornton (14), Jared Jordan (45)
The Clippers basically just sat back and took the best value that was available, and they ended up with 2 really good players who are both good fits. Thornton allows them to put the disgruntled Corey Maggette on the trading block. He's a terrific athlete, and I've been saying all along he's the second coming of Shawn Marion. He was easily the best value available for them. Jordan is a pure point who should be able to back up Sam Cassell right away. His ceiling as a player isn't very high, but he's a smart guy who should be able to carve out a niche in the league. I would've gone with Taurean Green there, but I can't fault them for taking Jordan.
L.A. Lakers - Thumbs Down
Picks - Javaris Crittenton (19), Sun Yue (40), Marc Gasol (48)
This rating is contingent on them keeping Kobe Bryant, which they have repeatedly said that they want to do. Were the Lakers set on building for the future, I would be ok with the Crittenton pick. He's the ultimate high-reward point guard prospect, with a good shooting touch, suberb athleticism, and a 6'5 frame. However, he's at least 2 years away from being able to run a team, and I doubt he'll contribute much next year. I'm not sold on Yue. From what I saw of him, he's not a great athlete and he didn't really impress me that much. They did get a steal in Gasol, who most mocks had up at the top of the second round.
Memphis Grizzlies - Thumbs Up
Picks - Mike Conley (4)
Not much to say about this. They took Conley, who was the best point guard in the draft and, in my opinion, the best player on the board at #4. He got better and better as the year went on last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a big contributor this year for Memphis. He's impossibly quick and has tremendous floor vision. Absolutely the right pick for the Griz.
Minnesota Timberwolves - On The Fence
Picks - Corey Brewer (7), Chris Richard (41)
As far as their draft goes, I think they made the right moves. Brewer was the obvious pick when he fell into their laps at #7, and Richard is a great value in the second round, he would be a first rounder if he'd played anywhere but Florida. However, I can't help but feel like the Timberwolves wasted their best chance to rebuild by not getting a KG deal done. They were adamant about what they wanted in return for him, and as a result of that they miss the chance to grab draft picks in the deepest draft in recent memory. I'm fine with the picks they made, but what they didn't do with KG devalues this for me.
New Orleans Hornets - Thumbs Up
Picks - Julian Wright (13), Adam Haluska (43)
They get a thumbs up because Wright at #13 is an absolute steal. He could've easily gone 6 picks higher than that. He doesn't fit a need quite as well as Nick Young would've, but there's no question that he was the best talent left on the board. On potential alone, he's probably the 3rd best guy in the draft. He had games at Kansas where he absolutely destroyed the opposing team. If the Hornets can get some consistency out of him, this is a great pick. Haluska was a surprise, as he wasn't really on anyone's radar. Really though, once you get into the last 20 picks, everything is a stretch.
Phoenix Suns - Thumbs Down
Picks - Alando Tucker (29), D. J. Strawberry (59)
Is there anything more depressing than seeing your team trade away a first round pick for cash? Yeah, the Suns have done that 4 straight times. Not only that, but they then took Tucker at 29, who is a PF in a SF's body. Oh yeah, he can't really shoot either. They had McRoberts and Gabe Pruitt sitting there at 29, and they took Alando Tucker instead. Ugh. The Suns have really made some disappointing moves in the last 2-3 years, and it's a shame cause I think their window for winning is closing. They had the chance here to either take players or trade for players who could bolster a championship level team, and they blew it. I do like the D.J. Strawberry pick at 59 though. He'll carve out a spot in the league as a lock-down defender.
Not only did the Blazers make an absolute killing with their picks but they also managed to bring another piece over in the Zach Randolph trade, Channing Frye. This is the best draft I've ever seen a team have. They drafted a franchise center in Oden, they got rid of head-case Randolph and his monster contract and brought in another good young big in Frye, they drafted two lottery-level talents in Fernandez and Koponen who will continue to mature overseas (something they had to do with all the guys they were bringing in with this draft), they got the steal of the draft in McRoberts at 37 (who is a perfect complementary post guy and also a good friend of Oden's), and they picked up Green about 20 spots later than most people had him ranked. That, my friends, is one heck of a draft. Here's the really scary thing about this team. By trading Randolph's contract for Francis's shorter deal, the Blazers made sure that they will be well under the cap in 2 years when guys like Aldridge and Roy start signing extensions. They've done so well building with young talent, and it's entirely possible that they will be able to keep all of it. Can anybody in the league match the young talent on their frontline with Oden, Aldridge, Frye, and McRoberts? This team is ridiculously scary.
Sacramento Kings - Thumbs Down
Picks - Spencer Hawes (10)
It's not that I don't think Hawes is a bad player. He's probably more-or-less the next Brad Miller, and Miller has had a very solid career with a few All-Star games tossed in there. However, with all the rebuilding that Sacramento has to do, they needed a high-ceiling kind of guy, and Hawes isn't it. Julian Wright would've been the much better pick here.
San Antonio Spurs - Thumbs Up
Picks - Tiago Splitter (28), Marcus Williams (33), Giorgos Printezis (58)
It's just not fair sometimes. The best team in the league adds a lottery-level talent who will wait a year before coming over. Splitter was a perfect fit for them, and they'll be reaping the benefits in two years. Williams is a great prospect with a ton of potential, but he never put it together in college. I was a little surprised that they didn't go with Derrik Byars, but if anyone can get Williams to put things together, it's the Spurs.
Seattle Supersonics - Thumbs Up
Picks - Kevin Durant (2), Jeff Green (5)
Big props to Seattle for being gutsy with their moves. Trading Ray Allen wasn't even something I was thinking about, but it makes a lot of sense. The word from Seattle is that they want to try and resign Rashard Lewis and be able to throw Green, Durant, and Lewis out there all at once. It's a remarkable idea, and I think that they could pull it off. There are very few players in the league versatile and athletic enough to run the 2,3,and 4 spots, but these guys could do it. Can you imagine trying to match up with that? Anyway, even if they don't bring Lewis back, Green is a great compliment to Durant. Overlooked in the Allen for Green deal is that they also brought in Delonte West, who is a solid player and should be the starter at the point for them next year.
Utah Jazz - Thumbs Up
Picks - Morris Almond (25), Kyrylo Fesenko (38)
I have no opinion on Fesenko, but Almond was a great pick at 25. He was obviously the best talent left on the board, and he fills the Jazz's need for a perimeter shooter. Considering where they were picking, the Jazz did a solid job.
Just as a final note, is anyone else as excited as I am that Ray Allen and Allen Ray are on the same team? I've been waiting for this since I learned that Villanova was bringing in a freshman named Allen Ray. It's fate, it had to happen, the basketball gods brought it about.
I've made my stance on the Suns pretty clear recently with all the trade talks. Obviously, if they could get KG for Marion, that would be the optimum, but it doesn't seem like that's going to happen. If that's the case, then I think Phoenix has to trade Amare for KG. I've detailed the reasons why in previous posts, so check those out if you want my reasoning. Beyond that, I think they need to package their picks and try to move up and grab Jason Smith or maybe Javaris Crittenton to back up Nash. They could also try to use the unprotected first rounder they get from Atlanta next year in order to move into the lottery and grab Thornton, Young, or Wright. How scary is that above lineup, only with KG instead of Stoudemire, and with Smith and Wright added in? Would you be betting against them?
What They Should Do: Trade for KG, Trade your #24, #59, and a 2nd rounder next year to Washington or New Jersey at #16/17 to take Smith. Then package Atlanta's first rounder next year and the #29 pick to Sacramento or Philadelphia and draft Wright. Proceed to dominate the league.
What They Will Do: I have a terrible suspision that they're going to pull out of the KG deal because they don't want to part with Amare. While this wouldn't be the end of the world, I don't think they can beat the Spurs without making this move, I just don't see it happening.
Portland Trailblazers
Roster For 07-08
PG - Jarret Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, Dan Dickau SG - Brandon Roy, Martell Webster SF - Darius Miles, Fred Jones, Travis Outlaw PF - Zach Randolph, LaMarcus Aldridge C - Joel Przybilla, Raef LaFrentz
I've said it before, but Portland is the team to watch next season, and going into the future. They're filled with young talent and they're about to add more to it. They're going to draft Oden #1, and it's absolutely the right move. Oden's been the guy from day one, and they'd be foolish to pass on him. The other big need the have, outside of the center position, is to find a solid SF. I've been hawking this deal forever, but I'll throw it out there one more time. Randolph to Chicago for P.J. Brown (sign and trade), Chris Duhon, and the #9 pick. It makes an amazing amount of sense for both teams, and allows Portland to take Wright or Thornton (maybe even Green if they're lucky) to shore up the wing position. Other than that, the Blazers would really love to part with Darius Miles, but I can't think of anyone who would possibly want him, so I think they're stuck with his contract. Moving away from that and back to the draft, we see that Portland absolutely owns the second round this year. With 4 picks, look for them to go international with a few and take some proven college guys with the others. Names to look for are Petteri Koponen, Jared Dudley, Demetris Nichols (love this guy for them), Ali Traore, Stephane Lasme, D.J. Strawberry, and Rayshawn Terry.
What They Should Do: Take Oden, trade Randolph for a lottery pick, land Nichols (a perfect fit for this team) in the second round, and persuade Miles to listen to his knees and retire. When the highlight of your career is that you were in a bad movie with Scarlett Johansson, you need to think about hangin em up.
What They Will Do: There's been a lot of talk about them trying to move into the top 5 and take Mike Conley. I don't put much stock in this, but it would be a terrible idea. Point guard is a position of strength for this team right now, with two good young players who are improving, why waste assets to get another point instead of addressing a position of need?
Sacramento Kings
Roster For 07-08
PG - Mike Bibby, Quincy Douby SG - Kevin Martin, Francisco Garcia SF - Ron Artest, John Salmons PF - Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Kenny Thomas C - Brad Miller
Picks
1 - 10 (10 overall)
Wow, this team got old quickly, didn't they? It's not as though they don't have talent, it's just that it's all either old or crazy. Their best bet right now is to ship out Bibby while he still has value and Artest before he kills someone and see what they can get back. I messed around with a bunch of trades for them, and I'm not sure what exactly to do with this roster. Here's an interesting trade though though.
Sacramento gets Carlos Arroyo, the expiring contracts of Pat Garrity and Keyon Dooling, Darko Milicic via sign & trade, and Orlando's first rounder next year.
Orlando gets Mike Bibby and Ron Artest.
Looks kind of crazy at first, and it's not typically my type of trade, but doesn't this make sense? Sactown gets expiring contracts, a draft pick, a promising young point in Arroyo, and a good young post in Darko. Orlando fills needs at point guard and on the wing. Sure, Artest is crazy, but aren't you buying low on him right now? Anything could happen, but you can go to war in the east with a core of Bibby, Artest and Howard. Just something to think about.
What They Should Do: Drop contracts in any way that they can, hopefully picking up some draft picks/prospects in the process. This team needs to be completely rebuilt around Kevin Martin. With the 10th pick, take whoever the best player left on the board is, they have needs at every position.
What They Will Do: Demand too much in trade for their guys, keep everyone there, and have a miserable season until Artest guns down the Maloof brothers in cold blood while screaming bad rap lyrics. Poor Reggie Theus.
5 more teams. I'm planning on finishing this tonight, then posting a list of my favorite and least favorite players tomorrow before I live blog the draft.
ges dropped off drastically. Now, there's a chance that he just had an off-year, but it might be that he's lost a step as he approaches 30 and wasn't getting by people as easily. Bibby has a good jumpshot, and I think he'd be a great addition to a team like Cleveland who desperately needs a guy who can hit open jumpers, but I don't think he's a viable option as a playmaker anymore.
mself easy shots and getting to the line. He's the kind of guy I'd love to have on my team, the kind of guy who can score 30 points in the flow of the offense and you don't realize it until you see the box score.
om two guys who were drafted 19th and 23rd and haven't done much particularly noteworthy in the league yet. Both can develop to be solid bench contributors, but I don't see them being starters on a playoff team. 
