Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.
Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.
I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-####, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.
In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.
Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.
Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.
Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.
It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.
Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.
Ugh, I just finished writing this whole thing, then had a problem with my PC and lost it all. Alas. Such is my dedication to bringing you people all the latest and greatest NBA news that I will tirelessly type it all up again...or I'm just really bored right now and need something to do.
You know what I love about the NBA summer league? It isn't seeing how all the highly drafted rookies do. No, it's seeing all the guys who I remember from their college days, but who dropped off the face of the planet after failing to make it big in the pros. Guys like Josh Powell (who ruined a promising college career by leaving too early, not that I'm bitter), Brandon Bass (ditto), Von Wafer (seeing a trend?), my boy Julius Hodge (please Jules, do something this year so I have a State player to cheer for), and D'Or Fischer (anybody else remember him leading the nation in blocks?). Heck, we've even had a Mateen Cleaves sighting. Can't beat the NBA summer league for seeing those former college stars...well, except for maybe the NBDL.
So, sifting through the worthlessness that is most of the summer league, what are the few things that we can take from what we've seen so far?
Tyrus Thomas has apparently developed a solid mid-range jumpshot, which is big trouble for the rest of the league. Thomas might be the quickest big in the game, and if defenders can't lay off him from 15 feet, we might be seeing a whole lot more highlight reel dunks next year.
Marco Bellinelli has no conscience. Through 3 games, he's taken 56 shots at a rate of a shot every 2 minutes. Even in the notoriously foul-heavy summer league, Bellinelli has taken almost twice as many 3-pointers as free throws. The phrase "quick trigger" does not do the man justice. In other words, he'll be perfect for Nellieball.
Outside of 1 quarter against Cleveland, Yi has been thoroughly unimpressive. He's shooting a terrible percentage and most of his points have come from the line, which is deceptive because of the increased amount of fouls called in the summer league. Well, at least he's got a pretty free-throw stroke.
Is it just me, or is Desagana Diop morphing into a poor man's Dikembe Mutumbo? They even kind of look alike.
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J.J. Redick has been on fire at the Orlando summer league so far, though on one play he saw there was too much traffic in the lane and promptly pulled a U-turn to get away. Sorry, that was a low blow. J.J., if I hurt your feelings, I can send some tissues.
Other than summer league play, the other big NBA news is that the salary cap was announced today ($56.6 mil), meaning that free agent deals can officially be finalized.
Apparently, the Magic have worked out a sign and trade with Seattle where they send a second rounder to the Sonics in order to get Bird rights to Rashard Lewis so they can sign him for 6 years instead of 5. Lewis' deal will start at around $16 mil (max for a 9-year veteran) and end up at around $25 mil in his last year. Yeah, have fun with that one Magic fans.
Mo Williams is seriously considering signing with Miami, and I'm puzzled as to why. I mean, that team is going downhill fast, and you can get twice as much money from Milwaukee, which is a young, quickly improving team where you're one of the leaders. It really wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bucks were better than the Heat next year if Williams comes back. Again, I don't understand the motivation.
Trey Johnson on Williams' decision,
"It's hard to tell where he's leaning. I just told him it would be lovely if he comes to Miami and I make the roster, too." Lovely, Trey? What are you, an 80-year-old woman? Weird quote.
The big free agent mystery now? Darko's final destination. With Charlotte reportedly close to inking Gerald Wallace, Darko is the biggest catch still available. However, there aren't many teams that can offer him the $8-9 mil a year that he wants. Memphis is apparently interested, and Milwaukee would probably make a move pending the Darko and Williams situations. The other option is Charlotte, who would still have enough cap space to offer him what he wants if they sign Gerald Wallace to a $12-13 mil deal.
Well, KG and Kobe trade talks have settled down, and it appears that we'll spend another season with 2 of the league's biggest stars toiling away in futility on bad teams. Sigh. NBA GMs have no spine. Seriously guys, we know you don't like to trade your superstars, but you've got to know when to cut bait and rebuild. Really, you can actually hear KG's trade value plummeting if you listen hard enough.
That's it for now, your daily (and by "daily", I mean "whenever-the-heck-I-feel-like-it") NBA update. I'll leave you with my trivia question of the day, and the imaginary prize goes to the first person who can answer it.
Q: There are 3 players in NCAA history with over 1000 assists on their career. They all played in the ACC. List them in order (most assists to least) and name the school they played for.
Really, the NBA astounds me sometimes. It seems that teams never learn their lesson when it comes to free agents. It's not really that hard guys, just stop paying guys twice as much as they're worth and locking them up in long contracts. Ugh, I should be a GM, I really should.
The Rashard Lewis Deal
On the surface, this deal has a lot of logical things going for it. Grant Hill is headed out of town, and the Magic desperately need wing help. In addition, they've got to extend Dwight Howard next year, so this is the last real chance they get to play the free agent market for a while. Lewis is a versatile scorer, and his perimeter shooting should help open things up for Howard (seen here defending his future teammate). However, the problem is that Orlando is paying Lewis superstar money, and he isn't a superstar. He's a very good player, but he's not going to be the star on a championship team. Now, the Magic might be able to work this out in the end because they have Howard there, but as a general principle, it's a bad idea to pay franchise money to a guy who isn't a franchise player (as Indiana and Boston have found out with O'Neal and Pierce). While a guy like Duncan is worth it, a second tier star like Lewis is going to end up crippling your cap space with a contract like that, and you eventually won't be able to acquire anymore pieces to flesh out your team. Now, if Howard develops into the next Shaq over the next few years and Orlando ends up getting a title out of this pair, then you can throw this out the window. More likely situation? The Magic get to the point where they can't quite make it over the hump, but their lack of cap space around their two stars prevents them from improving. I love Lewis as a fit for the Magic, but I wouldn't have maxed him out in order to get him.
The Mid-Level Shooter Exception
Apparently, the thing to do at the moment is to sign one-dimensional shooters who have had one good year to the full mid-level exception. Jason Kapono got $24 mil for 4 years from the Raptors, and Matt Carroll got $27 mil for 6 years to resign with the Bobcats (not actually a use of their mid-level exception since they have cap space, but about the same $$$ amount). At least the Kapono signing makes some sense. The Raptors needed a SF to replace Mo Pete, and they needed a perimeter shooter. Hence, Kapono makes sense, and they did only sign him for 4 years, which isn't too bad. That said, Kapono wasn't ever even a decent player until last year, and he's not gonna give you anything beyond being a shooter. $6 mil a year is a bit steep for a guy as one-dimensional as he is. The Carroll signing makes no sense to me at all. I realize shooters are in demand, had done basically nothing before coming out as a shooting specialist last year for the Bobcats. Not only that, but they just traded for Jason Richardson who is going to take most of the minutes at SG. Carroll is a terrible defender, a one-dimensional offensive player, and not a position of need. You're giving this guy nearly $5 mil a year for 6 years? This is a deal that will probably look really ugly down the road.
He Gets It From His Dad
I'm a big fan of the Lakers resigning Luke Walton. $5 mil a year for a guy as versatile and effective as Walton is practically a steal. The length of the deal (6 years) is cause for concern, but I don't even think Walton will fall off that much as he ages. His game is based around fundamentals and passing, not athleticism, which is a good indicator that his performance won't drop that much as he enters his 30s. He's great in the triangle and a perfect complement for a guy like Kobe. He's certainly not the answer to all their problems, but he's about as good a role player as you're going to find. I really like this signing, it makes a lot of sense to me. Now if only the Lakers could avoid picking up huge contracts on guys like Vlad and Kwame, then we'd be getting somewhere.
Phoenix Bound
The Suns made quite possibly the best free agent signing of the offseason by getting Grant Hill to ink to a 2-year deal at practically no cost using their bi-annual exception. Before signing the deal, the Suns consulted with Hill, his agent, and his left ankle, which says that it promises it will be good this time around and stop screwing with Grant's career. Specifics of the contract are 2 years, $3.8 million, and an unlimited supply of ankle braces and asprin.
The Spurs Are Smarter Than Everyone Else...Again
As if it weren't enough that the reigning champs have the best coach in the business, the best power forward of all time, and the best international scouts (can anybody else match finds like Parker, Ginobili, Oberto, and soon-to-be Luis Scola?), they also have the league's smartest approach to free agents. See, this is a novel idea. They actually pay players what they're worth. Funny, you'd think that might catch on. Another thing that the Spurs do is that they don't sign you to a long term deal unless you're a star (i.e. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili). The result of this is that the Spurs very rarely get caught with terrible contracts, cause if someone isn't performing, they let him walk. It's amazing to me that teams don't learn from their example and continue to sign role players to huge deals. By resigning Fabricio Oberto, Matt Bonner, and Jacque Vaughn all to short, decently priced deals, the Spurs have kept their whole championship team together and put themselves in great position for next year. Keep in mind that this Spurs team is as good as it is, and they still have 2 of the top post players in Europe (Scola and Tiago Splitter) who can come over in future years. There's not a better managed team in professional sports than the Spurs.
ion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
On the surface, this deal has a lot of logical things going for it. Grant Hill is headed out of town, and the Magic desperately need wing help. In addition, they've got to extend Dwight Howard next year, so this is the last real chance they get to play the free agent market for a while. Lewis is a versatile scorer, and his perimeter shooting should help open things up for Howard (seen here defending his future teammate). However, the problem is that Orlando is paying Lewis superstar money, and he isn't a superstar. He's a very good player, but he's not going to be the star on a championship team. Now, the Magic might be able to work this out in the end because they have Howard there, but as a general principle, it's a bad idea to pay franchise money to a guy who isn't a franchise player (as Indiana and Boston have found out with O'Neal and Pierce). While a guy like Duncan is worth it, a second tier star like Lewis is going to end up crippling your cap space with a contract like that, and you eventually won't be able to acquire anymore pieces to flesh out your team. Now, if Howard develops into the next Shaq over the next few years and Orlando ends up getting a title out of this pair, then you can throw this out the window. More likely situation? The Magic get to the point where they can't quite make it over the hump, but their lack of cap space around their two stars prevents them from improving. I love Lewis as a fit for the Magic, but I wouldn't have maxed him out in order to get him.
Apparently, the thing to do at the moment is to sign one-dimensional shooters who have had one good year to the full mid-level exception. Jason Kapono got $24 mil for 4 years from the Raptors, and Matt Carroll got $27 mil for 6 years to resign with the Bobcats (not actually a use of their mid-level exception since they have cap space, but about the same $$$ amount). At least the Kapono signing makes
some sense. The Raptors needed a SF to replace Mo Pete, and they needed a perimeter shooter. Hence, Kapono makes sense, and they did only sign him for 4 years, which isn't too bad. That said, Kapono wasn't ever even a decent player until last year, and he's not gonna give you anything beyond being a shooter. $6 mil a year is a bit steep for a guy as one-dimensional as he is. The Carroll signing makes no sense to me at all. I realize shooters are in demand, had done basically nothing before coming out as a shooting specialist last year for the Bobcats. Not only that, but they just traded for Jason Richardson who is going to take most of the minutes at SG. Carroll is a terrible defender, a one-dimensional offensive player, and not a position of need. You're giving this guy nearly $5 mil a year for 6 years? This is a deal that will probably look really ugly down the road.
as Walton is practically a steal. The length of the deal (6 years) is cause for concern, but I don't even think Walton will fall off that much as he ages. His game is based around fundamentals and passing, not athleticism, which is a good indicator that his performance won't drop that much as he enters his 30s. He's great in the triangle and a perfect complement for a guy like Kobe. He's certainly not the answer to all their problems, but he's about as good a role player as you're going to find. I really like this signing, it makes a lot of sense to me.
Scola?), they also have the league's smartest approach to free agents. See, this is a novel idea. They actually pay players what they're worth. Funny, you'd think that might catch on. Another thing that the Spurs do is that they don't sign you to a long term deal unless you're a star (i.e. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili). The result of this is that the
Spurs very rarely get caught with terrible contracts, cause if someone isn't performing, they let him walk. It's amazing to me that teams don't learn from their example and continue to sign role players to huge deals. By resigning Fabricio Oberto, Matt Bonner, and Jacque Vaughn all to short, decently priced deals, the Spurs have kept their whole championship team together and put themselves in great position for next year. Keep in mind that this Spurs team is as good as it is, and they still have 2 of the top post players in Europe (Scola and Tiago Splitter) who can come over in future years. There's not a better managed team in professional sports than the Spurs.
