You know, I’ve tried to write this post like 6 times, and every time I just stall at the beginning and give it up. Maybe I’ll actually get it written this time.

Anyway, we’ve hit the half way point of the NBA season. It’s time to look back at what we’ve learned, as well as look forward to what we can expect from the rest of the season. With that in mind, lets take a look at some of the teams that I really missed on.

Memphis Grizzlies
Wow, did I miss on these guys or what? Strangely enough, a lot of what I thought would happen with them did happen. Rudy #### really blossomed in his second year, becoming a potent scorer, J.C. Navarro has been one of the best rookies in the league and has had some truly spectacular shooting performances, and Mike Conley has played very well since returning from injury. They’re actually a decent offensive team. However, where I was wrong was thinking that they would be an improved defensive team. #### hasn’t been much of a defender, even though he has all the tools for it, Kyle Lowry isn’t having nearly as much impact as last year, and most importantly, Darko has been absolutely terrible. One reason I liked them so much was because an even slightly improved Darko would give them a much-needed shot-blocking presence in the back of their defense. Instead, Darko has, amazingly, been much, much worse than he was in Orlando last year. Of course, I also though 42 or 43 wins would get you into the playoffs out West, and that doesn’t appear to be the case at this point. Oh well, they’ll at least put themselves in good position to get Mike Beasley or DeAndre Jordan in the draft.

Chicago Bulls
I, like everyone else, have been pretty stunned by the poor performance of the Bulls. Now, to some extent we probably should’ve been able to see this coming. All the talk about a Kobe trade obviously had an effect on the young guys on this team. It was also painfully obvious that Ben Wallace was declining rapidly as a player. However, there’s no way that anyone could’ve predicted the inexplicably bad play of the Bulls’ young core players. To have one young guy regress when he should be improving is one thing, but for five guys under the age of 27? It’s absolutely incredible. Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon and Thomas are all having worse seasons than last year. We’re not just talking about slightly worse either, we’re talking about them being significantly less productive. 7 of the top 8 guys on the team (with Joe Smith as the exception) are shooting worse than they were last season. It’s absolutely mind-blowing how the young Bulls have regressed. I think we’re going to see the Bulls in the playoffs at the end of this season 1) because they’re in the East, and as bad as they’ve been they’re only a game behind the Pacers for the last playoff spot right now, but also because 2) it’s absolutely unheard of for a team full of young players to take a huge step backwards like this, and I think they’ll bounce back some and be respectable by season’s end.

Portland Trailblazers
I actually kind of thought Portland would be better than most people thought they would, but I never thought they’d have this kind of success. The biggest shocker to me has been the extraordinary play of Brandon Roy. I’ll be honest, I thought Roy was a really good player when Portland drafted him, and I thought he’d make a few All-Star teams and be a really good player, but I never thought he’d be this good, this fast. He has become the unquestioned leader of the team that has the best chemistry in the league. He does all the little things and he’s a big-time clutch player, making big shots, big defensive stops and getting big rebounds. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player with a better hesitation move than Roy, he reminds me a bit of Nash in the way that he always looks like he’s completely under control. Of course, the other big reason for the Blazers’ success has been the brilliant coaching of Nate McMillan. This Blazers team has great chemistry, they run their offensive sets really well, and they use zone defenses as well as any team in the league. That’s great coaching, McMillan has got this young team executing and believing in themselves.

Those are the teams that have really surprised this year, but we’ve also learned a lot this season about the league’s elite teams. With that in mind, I’m taking another look at my list of potential contenders and cutting it down to size a bit.

My list from the preseason looked like this (in no particular order): Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Jazz, Celtics, Nuggets, Bulls, Suns

My list now (again, in no particular order): Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers

So, why did I drop the teams I did?

Bulls are obvious, I’m not going to go over them

Jazz
They can’t defend the post at all, and I can’t bring myself to pick them in a conference with Duncan, STAT, Yao, Dirk, and now Bynum. You have to defend the post, and they can’t.

Mavs
Gone unnoticed by basically everyone is the fact that the Mavs’ defense has not been good this year. This team was 2nd in the league on offense and 5th on defense last year, this year they’re 2nd on offense and 18th on defense. Add that to their playoff failures the last two years and this team screams “paper tiger” to me.

Suns
Hardest drop from the list for me. I love Nash and I think this team is tremendously talented. However, they’re a worse defensive team than last year, and they aren’t going to win a title that way. Amare continues to be a weakness defensively in the post, and Brian Skinner brings defense, but he doesn’t have any offensive skills. Kurt Thomas was so great because he could both guard bigs and step out and hit the mid-range jumper, Skinner can’t do that. I hate it, but bad defensive teams don’t win titles.

You’ll notice a common theme on why I didn’t pick any of the previous teams. To put the importance of defense in perspective, there have only been 2 teams in the modern era who have won a title without a top 10 defense, and they were the ‘95 Rockets and the ’01 Lakers (who don’t even really count because they played great defense the year before and the year after and during the playoffs with essentially the same team, and obviously didn’t care about the regular season this year). Moral of the story is that defense is really important.

You may also be wondering why the Hornets didn’t make the list. Simply put, they don’t have a bench. I would take their starting five against any other starting unit in the league, but they don’t have the depth or the experience to make a deep run, especially not if anyone (read: Peja) gets hurt. I love the team, I love Chris Paul, they’re a great story, but I don’t think this is their year.

So, why the teams that I did pick?

I’m not going over the Spurs and Celtics, you all know why they’re on that list.

Nuggets
They have two possible starters who are out indefinitely with injury (Nene and Chucky Atkins), Carmelo’s production and efficiency is down significantly from his past two seasons, and they have a serious lack of three-point shooting. Still, they’re 25-16 and first in their division. The reason is because Allen Iverson has fully embraced being a co-star with Melo and is having the most efficient season of his career, and because Marcus Camby takes this team from being a very bad defensive team to being a very good defensive team. If Atkins comes back healthy or they can add one more shooter through a trade, I think this becomes a very dangerous offensive team as well as a good defensive team, and that makes them a contender.

Rockets
They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system. As I wrote back when I blogged the season-opener between LA and Houston, McGrady dominating the ball so much absolutely kills this offense, and they often look significantly better without him on the court. However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing.

Pistons
I left them off in the preseason because I thought they were missing the tough, killer-instinct, underdog mentality that fueled their last title run. What I didn’t count on was the Celtics getting off to a historical start and really lighting a fire under the Pistons to prove that they were the best team in the East. I honestly think that Boston’s great start had a positive impact on the Pistons, that it lit a fire under them that they didn’t have last year when LeBron trampled all over them in the playoffs. They’re also getting fantastic bench production and they execute and exploit weak defenders as well as any team in the league. I still don’t think they could beat the Spurs, but I think they could beat another team from the West if San Antonio doesn’t make the finals

Lakers
This one comes with a caveat. I reserve the right to dismiss this if the post-injury Bynum we get isn’t the same as pre-injury Bynum. LA has been a MUCH better defensive team this year because Bynum has been on the floor more, has become far less foul-prone, and has rebounded a lot better than last year. The bench and the contributions of Derek Fisher have been great, but Bynum is the key. He isn’t an elite player yet by any means, but he has great hands and finishes well on offense, and he improves their defense exponentially. If he comes back playing as well as early on this season, the Lakers are a long-shot contender.

Well, this post has run on long enough, and I’m sure you’re all tired of my wordiness. The last thing I’ll leave you with is my MVP pick for the first half of the season.

MVP: LeBron James
 With all due respect to Kevin Garnett’s fantastic work in Boston and Kobe’s exceptional play and leadership (who ‘da thunk it?), this isn’t even close. Yes, I know about Boston’s 33-7 record and how KG has gotten everyone playing great defense. I repeat, the MVP race is NOT EVEN CLOSE. Lebron uses more of his team’s possessions than anyone outside of DWade, and his offensive rating this year is 12 points higher than Flash! He averages 30-8-7 with 2 steals and a block, and he shoots almost 50%. Lebron’s AST% (an estimate of the percentage of his teammates’ field goals his assists while on the court) is 6th in the league. 6th! He’s one percentage point behind Deron Williams! It’s not quite MJ numbers that we’re talking about here, but we’re getting close. LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs. He’s the MVP, Period.

Alright, that’s it for me, I finally got this post cranked out. I’ll be sharing my opinions on the All-Star team next post, which should be pretty soon, so keep a look out for that.

A week ago when I wrote my last post, I almost posted something about the Trail Blazer's 5-game winning streak, but I decided it was a bit premature and that they probably wouldn't keep it up. Silly me. Portland has added 3 very strong wins to that, and it's time to take a look at what the Blazers are doing.

You can basically dismiss the first three games of the streak because they came against pretty poor competition (man did I miss the mark with Memphis). However, the last 5 wins have been extremely impressive, coming against 4 Western Conference playoff teams (Utah twice), and playing without LaMarcus Aldridge. Perhaps even more impressive than the level of competition is the fact that 2 of the wins came on the road, where the young Blazers have really struggled. So, what is Portland doing so well that they've managed to win 5 quality games without Aldridge's 19 and 8 each night?

First of all, note that the Blazers haven't changed their mindset with Aldridge out. They've been one of the slowest teams in the league this year, with only Detroit playing less possessions per game than Portland. Through the streak, they haven't upped the tempo at all, and in fact have even slowed down a bit more, averaging a turtle-slow 90.6 possessions per game. Another important statistic is that they haven't been shooting much better than usual these last 5 games (roughly equivalent FG% and lower 3PT%), which actually bodes well for the future since it indicates that they aren't just on a hot streak. Lastly, the Blazers' assist, turnover, steal, and block totals are almost exactly on their season average during this streak, nothing that jumps out there.

So what are the Blazers doing? Well, for the season they're one of the league's poorer defensive teams, with their defensive rating of 104.4 coming in at 21st in the league. During this 5 game streak against 4 good offensive teams (New Orleans was the worst at 16th in the league offensively), Portland has posted a defensive efficiency of 100.6, an improvement of nearly 4 points per hundred possessions. That's a huge jump for a team to make. Where did the improvement come from? The biggest factor is the increase in minutes for Joel Przybilla in Aldridge's absence. Przybilla may be an offensive non-factor, but he's a terrific defender and rebounder, and Aldridge just isn't a defensive presence at this point in his career. The other significant factor is that less minutes are going to defensively-challenged Martell Webster, and more are going to solid defenders Travis Outlaw and James Jones.

So, the defense is better, but they've had a few offensive problems without Aldridge, right? Not exactly. Even more impressive than their defensive improvement is the Blazers' offensive execution without Aldridge. Their offensive efficiency for the season is 102.7, but during the streak it has been a blistering 111.5, a point and a half above Dallas' league-leading season average. They put up a 128 offensive rating AT DENVER (the second best defense in the league)!! What's going on here? They're shooting about the same percentage, they're turning the ball over the same amount, they're not getting more offensive rebounds. What the heck is making Portland so much better offensively? The answer is that they're going to the easiest place to get points, namely the free-throw line. the Blazers are playing aggressively, getting to the line nearly 6 more times per game during this stretch, and shooting 3 percentage points higher from the stripe. The two driving forces behind this change are Outlaw and Brandon Roy (who has been spectacular), who are both averaging around 6 FTAs per game in the last 5 games. The lesson? Practice your foul shots kids, they aren't fancy, but they win games.

While we are at it, I'd like to take a look at those two guys, who really have fueled this streak. The way Outlaw is playing this year, he'd be a front-runner for Sixth Man of the Year if this weren't The Year of the Reserve (Manu, Terry and Barbosa all playing so well). He's a terrific athlete and we've talked about his potential for years, but this year he has started to put together consistent performances. He's averaging 17-6 with a block and a steal in 30 minutes a game during December (including five 20-point games). Between he and James Jones (who is playing out of his mind right now) and the occasional strong game from Webster, the Blazers have a very strong SF rotation.

















Meanwhile, Roy has been playing out of his mind. It still boggles my mind how this guy slipped as far as he did in the draft (when he was obviously the best player in that draft class). His hesitation move in the lane is as good as anyone in the league. He'll beat his man and get into the lane, then slow up for half a second to let the big step towards him, then he goes right to the rim, often completely unchallenged because he got the post player so far out of position. It's really subtle, but between that and his ability to crossover in traffic, he's one of the league's best at maneuvering in the paint. His December has been ridiculous as he's putting up 22-5-7 with under 2 turnovers a game.

Looking forward at the schedule, Portland plays the next 5 games at home, where they've been fantastic (10-3), and only 2 of those are difficult opponents (Toronto and Denver). With a little luck, it's entirely possible that the Blazers could be 18-12 and riding a 13 game winning streak as they start their road trip in Utah at the end of December. This seems like a good time to mention that the odds of a sub-.500 team having a 10-game winning streak are 3%. Now, that's not to say that the Blazers are world-beaters, but I think we can say with some reasonable certainty that this is a solid team. At worst, they're an absolute menace at home, and you certainly don't look at a game against them and say "that one's a gimme".

As one final note, I'm feeling renewed confidence in saying that Portland will bring home a championship within the next five years. They have a solid team built of basically all young players this year, and they have even more talent waiting in the wings. Remember, in addition to Oden they own the rights to Rudy Fernandez, Joel Freeland, and Petteri Koponen, who are playing overseas (I've read scouts say that all 3 of those guys have lottery-level talent and potential, but they all fell to late-first round because they would have to wait in Europe to develop). This team has more young talent than any two other teams in the league combined. It's a good time to be a Blazers fan.

Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Portland Trail Blazers

Coach: Nate McMillan
2006-2007 Record: 32-50
06-07 Expected Record: 30-52
Offensive Rating: 104.7 (22nd in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 110.2 (26th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 48.3% (23rd in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 88.3 (29th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Everything about Aldridge screams "BREAKOUT YEAR". I thought it would take him a bit longer to adjust to the NBA game, but he had a very solid rookie year, and he's looked great in the offseason. He's an excellent offensive rebounder and shotblocker. He's probably the front-runner for MIP heading into the season.

Brandon Roy is gonna be a heck of a player. I don't know if he's going to be an all-NBA superstar, but he's gonna be an all-star. He can score from anywhere, he's quick, and he has a great crossover that he can use in traffic. He'll be good for 18-22 points per game for years.

The point guard situation is going to be interesting. I still don't really know why they brought in Steve Blake this offseason with 3 other legitimate options already there. They certainly don't lack for floor generals, Blake and Rodriguez both ranked in the top 5 in the league in assist ratio last year. Jack is a strong finisher and a good defensive player and probably the most complete and balanced option they have. To add to all that, they've got Green, who was a tremendously underrated part of the two-time national champs and has reportedly really impressed Nate McMillan.

Channing Frye went from being untouchable last year to being quite touchable. I'm not going to make too much of a judgment based on his performance on a completely disfunctional Knicks team. He's a mid-range jump shooter, and shoot be a good compliment to Aldridge and his offensive rebounding skills.

I really liked the pick of McRoberts in the second round. He's a tremendous talent who just wasn't cut out to be the primary offensive option on a team. He has excellent court vision and he's a very good defensive player. I think he'll end up being a very good complimentary player.

X-Factor: Martell Webster - In his third season, it's time for Webster to start fulfilling some of the promise that made the Blazers draft him with the number six pick. He's very athletic and has great range on his shot, but he takes too many bad shots and as a result he shoots a low percentage and doesn't get to the line much. If he's going to compete for a big role in the Blazers' promising future, he's got to break out this year and be a consistent offensive threat.

Overview

In the past few years, the Blazers have undergone a pretty startling turnaround. Through a couple of extremely active years in the front office, they've transformed from the "Jailblazers" into the league's most promising young team. This offseason, they got rid of a headcase with a huge contract in Zach Randolph, and they had an amazing draft. In addition to adding Oden, McRoberts and Green, they also got the rights to huge talents Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Koponen who they will develop overseas. The injury to Greg Oden is obviously not what they wanted, but as long as he returns without long-lasting effect, Portland will be in great shape for the future.

Prediction

With Oden coming in and making an immediate defensive impact, they Blazers had an outside shot at the playoffs. Without him, they'll have to wait one more season to start what should be a long run of success. Even so, I think the Blazers will be decent this year as long as Brandon Roy's preseason injury doesn't affect him too much.  They've got a very deep team, and Roy, Aldridge and a solid group of point guards should be enough to win a decent handful of games. The real excitement for the Blazers though is the next few years. Nobody in the league has nearly the incredible depth of young talent that the Blazers do. If Oden returns 100%, there's no reason to think that they won't be the dominating force in the NBA for the next decade.

11th in the West - The Young Northwesterners

 

 (Oden pic from Andrew420 on Dime's blog, MJ pic from Deadspin)

Clearly, Oden is the one who is ready to inherit Mike's legacy.

BTW, Deadspin is quite possibly the funniest sports site you will ever find and the response comments are often great, so I strongly recommend you check it out if you haven't done so. Some of the better comments from that MJ picture (still my favorite Deadspin find):

-"Jordan was always unstoppable against the double team."
-" Karl Malone had a party on the same night, and it was pretty awesome, yet nobody talks about that."
-" Byron Russell was dancing with then first but Jordan pushed him out of the way"
-" Interestingly enough, Sam Bowie was the girls' first choice for a dance partner. "
-" Not pictured, Craig Ehlo trailing behind."
-" 10 minutes earlier the chicks were dancing with Kevin Bacon."
-" Look who we have our Hanes on Now!"
-" I would do anything to grind with MJ and get it on camera, and I'm an eighteen-year-old Jewish guy."

Seriously, you can't make this stuff up. Awesome site, check it out.
 

If you haven't heard about it yet, you should check out Darko Milicic's rant against the officials at the Eurobasket tournament. I will warn you though, it's pretty vulgar, so if you get offended easily, stay away. Really though, somebody needs to tell Darko to get a handle on his mouth. After previously calling now-teammate Pau Gasol soft, now he goes and says this. It's not like the reporters didn't give him chances to get out of what he said either, but he just pressed on and kept getting more and more obscene. Really, I'm looking forward to the Darko era in Memphis, there's no telling what might happen. He's come off as completely crazy this offseason, the kind of quotes you usually see from Ron Artest, but his reputation as a player is that he's soft. Are we going to see crazy Darko next year? Are we going to see the lazy Darko who didn't play in Detroit? Who knows. Can we arrange for Memphis to trade for Steven Jackson or Artest? The comedy potential of that would be off the scale.

Greg Oden is having exploratory surgery on his knee. Now, to be perfectly honest, this is probably nothing. It's not reconstructive surgery, and Oden will probably be good to go in camp. However, if you're a Blazer fan, especially a long-time fan who lived through Bill Walton and Sam Bowie, then you've got to be feeling nervous about Oden's various maladies this offseason.

This just in, NBA players are stupid. Seriously, Shawne Williams, what are you thinking? Been reading "Stephen Jackson's Book on How to Stay Out of Trouble", have you? Pro athletes disgust me sometimes.

Important free agents still out there: Chris Webber, Michael Pietrus, Anderson Varejao, Sasha Pavlovic, and Charlie Bell. I'm surprised Webber isn't signed yet, I was sure he would've picked what contender he wanted to play with and signed up quickly, but he's still out there. Still, you gotta think he'll be signing with Dallas eventually. He's not going to San Antonio or Phoenix, so the Mavs are his best chance of snagging a ring.

Game 3 of the WNBA Finals tonight. I know, you probably don't care, but I'll be watching to see if Diana Taurasi drops 30 on the league's best defensive team again.

For all you basketball statheads out there, I'll be making a post shortly on some of the lesser known statistical measures out there, so make sure to check back on that.

Switching gears, reports say that Kevin Everett is making much better progress in his recovery than originally expected, and doctors are optimistic that he will walk again. My prayers go out to him and his family, you hate to see that happen in a sporting event, and it's good to hear that his condition is improving.

I went into Monday Night trailing by 15 points and with Edge James as my only hope. He produced 17 points, and I squeaked out a win. Course, I wouldn't have needed that if I'd started Adrian Peterson and LaMont Jordan, 40 points on the bench kind of sucks.

Apparently, Romeo Crennel comes from the Charlie Weis school of quarterback management.

Again switching gears, Jerry Crasnick has a great article on my boy Troy Tulowitzki, who is putting together a very veteran-like rookie season for the Rockies. He trails Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins by just .001 in fielding percentage, but he's had 100 more chances than any other shortstop in the majors. Pretty impressive for a rookie. He's almost like the anti-Ryan Braun, who carries a big stick, but is the worst fielding regular in the league. The sheer gaudy offensive numbers will get Braun ROY, Tulo might be the more valuable rookie.

Anybody know what A-Rod is hitting so far in the month of August? That would be .533/.600/1.367, yeah, that's right, a 1.367 SLUGGING PERCENTAGE. That's just obscene. My friend asked me the other day if i thought A-Rod would hit 60 HRs, and I said "no way". After looking at the numbers, I'm not so sure. 8 HRs in 20 games? He very well might with the way he's hitting. What was a close MVP race with Ordonez has turned into a runaway.

In the NL MVP race, much as I'd like to say my man Prince Fielder should win it with a spectacular second year, but I can't really endorse that even if the Brew Crew make the playoffs. The simple fact is that Ben Sheets has been every bit as important to that team as Prince has. Chase Utley would probably be the choice if he hadn't missed a good chunk of time with injury, but alas, he did. To me, it comes down to Matt Holliday and David Wright. Both have very similar offensive profiles, and it'll probably come down to team performance. If the Rockies pull off an improbable comeback and make the playoffs, Holliday has to be the choice, but otherwise I think the trophy goes to Wright.

If you haven't seen him yet this year, you should try to catch the late innings of a Cubs game to see Carlos Marmol pitch. He throws high heat, and his slider really breaks dramatically. I definitely don't consider myself an expert on pitchers, and often I can't even tell a pitch is breaking until I see the slow-mo replay, but Marmol's ball really moves. He's fun to watch.

Well, that's all for now folks. I'll leave you with this trivia question. Who holds the NBA record for most blocked shots by a rookie?

I'm going to move on to the Eastern conference draft analysis tomorrow, but tonight I want to take a more in-depth look at the draft day trades, of which we had 3 major ones and a lot more minor ones.

ESPN has a full list of all the trades here, so you can check there for all the minor trades.

Trade #1

Boston sends Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, the #5 pick (Jeff Green) and a future second rounder to Seattle for Ray Allen and the #35 pick (Glen Davis)

First of all, this deal is a slam dunk for Seattle. They get younger by dumping Allen, get a solid player in West, and get the perfect guy to complement Durant in Green. There really is no downside to this trade for the Sonics. For the Celtics, it's a bit of a tougher call. I'm of the opinion that Boston needed to revamp and rebuild, but for the last few weeks, we've known that wasn't going to Danny Ainge's plan. From the perspective of improving the team to win now, which was apparently management's goal, this move makes a lot of sense. They paid a relatively low price for a guy who might be the league's best shooter and should pump in around 22 points a game fairly efficiently. Allen is also a guy who has wanted to play for Boston, which is always good. The real concern is that he is 31, coming off surgery for bone spurs in both his feet, and doesn't particularly strike you as a guy who will age well. Was it a perfect trade? No, but the cost was so low for Boston that I think they had to take a swing at it. They didn't give up Gerald Green or Al Jefferson to get him, and a core of Allen, Pierce, and Jefferson should put them in contention in the east. They also didn't trade away Theo Ratliff and his expiring contract, which gives them one more piece to work with to bring in more help. In addition to all that, it also paired Ray Allen with Allan Ray, which is just too awesome for words. Icing on the cake for Boston is that Glen Davis inexplicably fell to them at #35 with that pick, which gives this trade even more value. In the end I think it was the right thing to do for both squads, the deal was just too good a value for Boston.

Trade #2

Portland sends Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau and Fred Jones to New York for Steve Francis and Channing Frye.

I think I'm one of the few people who sees this as a terrible move for the Knicks. Sure, it's great value for a 20-10 guy. they basically traded Channing Frye for Zach Randolph, which is a pretty amazing deal. Why is this trade so bad then? First of all, aren't Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry basically the same player? they're both adept post scorers who have no interest in passing out of double teams or rebounding, and they've both had weight problems. Do you really think you can win a championship with a frontline of Curry and Randolph? You better, because they'll make over $100 mil together over the next 4 years. Also, does anybody actually believe that Randolph isn't going to get in trouble in New York? You take a known head-case guy and put him in New York, and you can bet we'll be hearing more from Zach Randolph before the end of next season. Lastly, how does David Lee get on the floor now? He played as well as anyone in a Knicks uniform and was easily their most efficient player last year, but how does he find PT behind Randolph and Curry? Now, I know this was a pretty low-cost deal, but the cost wasn't so much in the talent the Knicks gave up as it was in the cap space they destroyed. Now, the Knicks cap situation was nothing to be happy about, but at least they had some of their terrible large contracts coming off the books soon. Now they've taken Francis's nearly expired deal and replaced it with Randolph's monster of a contract. Sorry, I just don't get the reasoning. For Portland, I think it was an excellent move. I would've preferred if they'd gotten a lottery pick for trading him, but Frye is a pretty good prize all the same. A year ago, he was untouchable, but New York cooled on him after a lukewarm 2nd season. Just in case you're wondering, Francis is in the deal simply for salary purposes. Portland is reportedly working on a buyout with him that would probably cut his impact on the salary cap by about half before he comes off in 2 seasons.

Trade #3

Charlotte trades the #8 pick (Brandan Wright) to Golden State for Jason Richardson and the #36 pick (Jermareo Davidson)

First of all, like I said in my analysis of their draft, I love this trade for Golden State. They gave from a position of strength (aggressive wing players) to address a position of need (athletic posts who can defend the rim). Wright is, at very worst, a better version of Andris Biedrins. He's got huge potential and is hugely reminiscent of Chris Bosh coming out of college. I would not be surprised at all if he contributed immediately for them. For the Bobcats, I think the trade is a little more interesting. With Richardson's history of knee injuries, this one is a little risky, but if he stays healthy than the deal is a good one for Charlotte. Even after taking on J-Rich's contract, the Bobcats are still nearly $20 mil under the cap, which should be plenty to resign Gerald Wallace. Throwing Wallace and Richardson out on the wings is a scary prospect for the rest of the east. They took a chance and bought low on J-Rich's value, and I can't really fault them for that. They do have a serious frontcourt depth issue though. Okafor and May are the only 2 real competent posts (put your hand down Primoz Brezec, you don't count), and they both have injury history. If they don't pick up some sort of frontcourt answer in free agency (Anderson Varejao maybe?) then I think they're going to look back on this trade with regret, as they let a great young post go.

The long-awaited draft is over, so now its time to take a look at the results. It was actually a rather subdued draft until we got to the 18th pick or so, with the only real surprise being the Ray Allen trade. After that, things started going all kinds of crazy as Portland began to wheel and deal. Anyway, here's my team-by-team analysis of the draft. It's not grades, cause I don't like grades (btw, if we were to give teams a GPA based on their draft grades over time, what would Atlanta's be? 1.5? 2?). I'm going to give either a thumbs up, thumbs down, or on the fence for each team. So, starting with the Western Conference...

Dallas Mavericks - Thumbs Down

Picks - Nick Fazekas (34), Renaldas Seibutis (50), Milovan Rakovic (60)

Now, I understand that Dallas didn't have a lot to work with here, but they didn't exactly make the most of it. I'll give them the last two, cause there's not that much talent that late, but they took Fazekas, who is quite possibly the worst athlete in the draft, in front of Glen Davis and Josh McRoberts, both much better talents. I don't see Fazekas being any kind of player in the NBA, he's just too slow, and slow big guys whose trademark is their shooting don't have a great track record.

Denver Nuggets - N/A

Picks - ...

Well, that was easy

Golden State Warriors - Thumbs Up

Picks - Brandan Wright (8), Marco Belinelli (18), Stephane Lasme (46)

Big thumbs up to the Warriors, who had my second favorite draft (behind Portland's masterpiece). Not only did they manage to grab some fantastic talent, but they got rid of Jason Richardson's contract too. I questioned their selection of Bellinelli instead of Jason Smith, but it makes sense with the acquisition of Wright. Take note that there's still a possibility that Yi will end up here for a package including Wright, though Milwaukee looks like they want to keep him. Wright is a perfect player for them. He has very little range to his game, but he's money near the hoop and he's a very good shot-blocker. At worst, he's a much more talented and athletic version of Andris Biedrins. Bellinelli is a dynamic 2-guard who has great range and can slash, but he's streaky (which should mean he fits in perfectly here). Lasme was one of my favorite second round guys, and I can see him contributing immediately as an energy/defense guy for the Warriors. Very good draft.

Houston Rockets - Thumbs Down

Picks - Aaron Brooks (26), Carl Landry (31), Brad Newley (54)

I really don't get their draft. They had McRoberts and Davis staring them in the face at both 26 and 31, and they passed them both times for inferior players. Brooks was a solid sleeper, but that's only a good pick if you don't reach for it, and they reached big-time for him. What's more puzzling is that they didn't even reach for a need, they've already got Mike James and Rafer Alston at the point and a gaping hole at PF. Landry is a gritty player, but he's undersized and can't rebound. McRoberts would've been perfect here, I'm really puzzled that they passed on him.

L.A. Clippers - Thumbs Up

Picks - Al Thornton (14), Jared Jordan (45)

The Clippers basically just sat back and took the best value that was available, and they ended up with 2 really good players who are both good fits. Thornton allows them to put the disgruntled Corey Maggette on the trading block. He's a terrific athlete, and I've been saying all along he's the second coming of Shawn Marion. He was easily the best value available for them. Jordan is a pure point who should be able to back up Sam Cassell right away. His ceiling as a player isn't very high, but he's a smart guy who should be able to carve out a niche in the league. I would've gone with Taurean Green there, but I can't fault them for taking Jordan.

L.A. Lakers - Thumbs Down

Picks - Javaris Crittenton (19), Sun Yue (40), Marc Gasol (48)

This rating is contingent on them keeping Kobe Bryant, which they have repeatedly said that they want to do. Were the Lakers set on building for the future, I would be ok with the Crittenton pick. He's the ultimate high-reward point guard prospect, with a good shooting touch, suberb athleticism, and a 6'5 frame. However, he's at least 2 years away from being able to run a team, and I doubt he'll contribute much next year. I'm not sold on Yue. From what I saw of him, he's not a great athlete and he didn't really impress me that much. They did get a steal in Gasol, who most mocks had up at the top of the second round.

Memphis Grizzlies - Thumbs Up

Picks - Mike Conley (4)

Not much to say about this. They took Conley, who was the best point guard in the draft and, in my opinion, the best player on the board at #4. He got better and better as the year went on last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a big contributor this year for Memphis. He's impossibly quick and has tremendous floor vision. Absolutely the right pick for the Griz.

Minnesota Timberwolves - On The Fence

Picks - Corey Brewer (7), Chris Richard (41)

As far as their draft goes, I think they made the right moves. Brewer was the obvious pick when he fell into their laps at #7, and Richard is a great value in the second round, he would be a first rounder if he'd played anywhere but Florida. However, I can't help but feel like the Timberwolves wasted their best chance to rebuild by not getting a KG deal done. They were adamant about what they wanted in return for him, and as a result of that they miss the chance to grab draft picks in the deepest draft in recent memory. I'm fine with the picks they made, but what they didn't do with KG devalues this for me.

New Orleans Hornets - Thumbs Up

Picks - Julian Wright (13), Adam Haluska (43)

They get a thumbs up because Wright at #13 is an absolute steal. He could've easily gone 6 picks higher than that. He doesn't fit a need quite as well as Nick Young would've, but there's no question that he was the best talent left on the board. On potential alone, he's probably the 3rd best guy in the draft. He had games at Kansas where he absolutely destroyed the opposing team. If the Hornets can get some consistency out of him, this is a great pick. Haluska was a surprise, as he wasn't really on anyone's radar. Really though, once you get into the last 20 picks, everything is a stretch.

Phoenix Suns - Thumbs Down

Picks - Alando Tucker (29), D. J. Strawberry (59)

Is there anything more depressing than seeing your team trade away a first round pick for cash? Yeah, the Suns have done that 4 straight times. Not only that, but they then took Tucker at 29, who is a PF in a SF's body. Oh yeah, he can't really shoot either. They had McRoberts and Gabe Pruitt sitting there at 29, and they took Alando Tucker instead. Ugh. The Suns have really made some disappointing moves in the last 2-3 years, and it's a shame cause I think their window for winning is closing. They had the chance here to either take players or trade for players who could bolster a championship level team, and they blew it. I do like the D.J. Strawberry pick at 59 though. He'll carve out a spot in the league as a lock-down defender.

Portland Trail Blazers - Thumbs Way Up

Picks - Greg Oden (1), Rudy Fernandez (24), Petteri Koponen (30), Josh McRoberts (37), Taurean Green (52)

Not only did the Blazers make an absolute killing with their picks but they also managed to bring another piece over in the Zach Randolph trade, Channing Frye. This is the best draft I've ever seen a team have. They drafted a franchise center in Oden, they got rid of head-case Randolph and his monster contract and brought in another good young big in Frye, they drafted two lottery-level talents in Fernandez and Koponen who will continue to mature overseas (something they had to do with all the guys they were bringing in with this draft), they got the steal of the draft in McRoberts at 37 (who is a perfect complementary post guy and also a good friend of Oden's), and they picked up Green about 20 spots later than most people had him ranked. That, my friends, is one heck of a draft. Here's the really scary thing about this team. By trading Randolph's contract for Francis's shorter deal, the Blazers made sure that they will be well under the cap in 2 years when guys like Aldridge and Roy start signing extensions. They've done so well building with young talent, and it's entirely possible that they will be able to keep all of it. Can anybody in the league match the young talent on their frontline with Oden, Aldridge, Frye, and McRoberts? This team is ridiculously scary.

Sacramento Kings - Thumbs Down

Picks - Spencer Hawes (10)

It's not that I don't think Hawes is a bad player. He's probably more-or-less the next Brad Miller, and Miller has had a very solid career with a few All-Star games tossed in there. However, with all the rebuilding that Sacramento has to do, they needed a high-ceiling kind of guy, and Hawes isn't it. Julian Wright would've been the much better pick here.

San Antonio Spurs - Thumbs Up

Picks - Tiago Splitter (28), Marcus Williams (33), Giorgos Printezis (58)

It's just not fair sometimes. The best team in the league adds a lottery-level talent who will wait a year before coming over. Splitter was a perfect fit for them, and they'll be reaping the benefits in two years. Williams is a great prospect with a ton of potential, but he never put it together in college. I was a little surprised that they didn't go with Derrik Byars, but if anyone can get Williams to put things together, it's the Spurs.

Seattle Supersonics - Thumbs Up

Picks - Kevin Durant (2), Jeff Green (5)

Big props to Seattle for being gutsy with their moves. Trading Ray Allen wasn't even something I was thinking about, but it makes a lot of sense. The word from Seattle is that they want to try and resign Rashard Lewis and be able to throw Green, Durant, and Lewis out there all at once. It's a remarkable idea, and I think that they could pull it off. There are very few players in the league versatile and athletic enough to run the 2,3,and 4 spots, but these guys could do it. Can you imagine trying to match up with that? Anyway, even if they don't bring Lewis back, Green is a great compliment to Durant. Overlooked in the Allen for Green deal is that they also brought in Delonte West, who is a solid player and should be the starter at the point for them next year.

Utah Jazz - Thumbs Up

Picks - Morris Almond (25), Kyrylo Fesenko (38)

I have no opinion on Fesenko, but Almond was a great pick at 25. He was obviously the best talent left on the board, and he fills the Jazz's need for a perimeter shooter. Considering where they were picking, the Jazz did a solid job.

Just as a final note, is anyone else as excited as I am that Ray Allen and Allen Ray are on the same team? I've been waiting for this since I learned that Villanova was bringing in a freshman named Allen Ray. It's fate, it had to happen, the basketball gods brought it about.

Phoenix Suns

Roster For 07-08

PG - Steve Nash, Marcus Banks
SG - Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, Eric Piatkowski
SF - Shawn Marion, James Jones
PF - Boris Diaw
C - Amare Stoudemire

Picks

1 - 24 (24 overall)
1 - 29 (29 overall)
2 - 29 (59 overall)

I've made my stance on the Suns pretty clear recently with all the trade talks. Obviously, if they could get KG for Marion, that would be the optimum, but it doesn't seem like that's going to happen. If that's the case, then I think Phoenix has to trade Amare for KG. I've detailed the reasons why in previous posts, so check those out if you want my reasoning. Beyond that, I think they need to package their picks and try to move up and grab Jason Smith or maybe Javaris Crittenton to back up Nash. They could also try to use the unprotected first rounder they get from Atlanta next year in order to move into the lottery and grab Thornton, Young, or Wright. How scary is that above lineup, only with KG instead of Stoudemire, and with Smith and Wright added in? Would you be betting against them?

What They Should Do: Trade for KG, Trade your #24, #59, and a 2nd rounder next year to Washington or New Jersey at #16/17 to take Smith. Then package Atlanta's first rounder next year and the #29 pick to Sacramento or Philadelphia and draft Wright. Proceed to dominate the league.

What They Will Do: I have a terrible suspision that they're going to pull out of the KG deal because they don't want to part with Amare. While this wouldn't be the end of the world, I don't think they can beat the Spurs without making this move, I just don't see it happening.

Portland Trailblazers

Roster For 07-08

PG - Jarret Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, Dan Dickau
SG - Brandon Roy, Martell Webster
SF - Darius Miles, Fred Jones, Travis Outlaw
PF - Zach Randolph, LaMarcus Aldridge
C - Joel Przybilla, Raef LaFrentz

Picks

1 - 1 (1 overall)
2 - 7 (37 overall)
2 - 12 (42 overall)
2 - 22 (52 overall)
2 - 23 (53 overall)

I've said it before, but Portland is the team to watch next season, and going into the future. They're filled with young talent and they're about to add more to it. They're going to draft Oden #1, and it's absolutely the right move. Oden's been the guy from day one, and they'd be foolish to pass on him. The other big need the have, outside of the center position, is to find a solid SF. I've been hawking this deal forever, but I'll throw it out there one more time. Randolph to Chicago for P.J. Brown (sign and trade), Chris Duhon, and the #9 pick. It makes an amazing amount of sense for both teams, and allows Portland to take Wright or Thornton (maybe even Green if they're lucky) to shore up the wing position. Other than that, the Blazers would really love to part with Darius Miles, but I can't think of anyone who would possibly want him, so I think they're stuck with his contract. Moving away from that and back to the draft, we see that Portland absolutely owns the second round this year. With 4 picks, look for them to go international with a few and take some proven college guys with the others. Names to look for are Petteri Koponen, Jared Dudley, Demetris Nichols (love this guy for them), Ali Traore, Stephane Lasme, D.J. Strawberry, and Rayshawn Terry.

What They Should Do: Take Oden, trade Randolph for a lottery pick, land Nichols (a perfect fit for this team) in the second round, and persuade Miles to listen to his knees and retire. When the highlight of your career is that you were in a bad movie with Scarlett Johansson, you need to think about hangin em up.

What They Will Do: There's been a lot of talk about them trying to move into the top 5 and take Mike Conley. I don't put much stock in this, but it would be a terrible idea. Point guard is a position of strength for this team right now, with two good young players who are improving, why waste assets to get another point instead of addressing a position of need?

Sacramento Kings

Roster For 07-08

PG - Mike Bibby, Quincy Douby
SG - Kevin Martin, Francisco Garcia
SF - Ron Artest, John Salmons
PF - Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Kenny Thomas
C - Brad Miller

Picks

1 - 10 (10 overall)

Wow, this team got old quickly, didn't they? It's not as though they don't have talent, it's just that it's all either old or crazy. Their best bet right now is to ship out Bibby while he still has value and Artest before he kills someone and see what they can get back. I messed around with a bunch of trades for them, and I'm not sure what exactly to do with this roster. Here's an interesting trade though though.

Sacramento gets Carlos Arroyo, the expiring contracts of Pat Garrity and Keyon Dooling, Darko Milicic via sign & trade, and Orlando's first rounder next year.

Orlando gets Mike Bibby and Ron Artest.

Looks kind of crazy at first, and it's not typically my type of trade, but doesn't this make sense? Sactown gets expiring contracts, a draft pick, a promising young point in Arroyo, and a good young post in Darko. Orlando fills needs at point guard and on the wing. Sure, Artest is crazy, but aren't you buying low on him right now? Anything could happen, but you can go to war in the east with a core of Bibby, Artest and Howard. Just something to think about.

What They Should Do: Drop contracts in any way that they can, hopefully picking up some draft picks/prospects in the process. This team needs to be completely rebuilt around Kevin Martin. With the 10th pick, take whoever the best player left on the board is, they have needs at every position.

What They Will Do: Demand too much in trade for their guys, keep everyone there, and have a miserable season until Artest guns down the Maloof brothers in cold blood while screaming bad rap lyrics. Poor Reggie Theus.

5 more teams. I'm planning on finishing this tonight, then posting a list of my favorite and least favorite players tomorrow before I live blog the draft.

My blog so far has been all about the NBA, but I promise, that will change. It just happens that there's nothing else exciting to blog about in the sports world right now. Anyway, with the season wrapped up, here are some final thoughts.

Cavs fans - Stop whining about officiating. Stop whining about how the league rigged things for the Spurs to win. You have absolutely no case. Everybody knew going in that you were going to lose, and you did. The only team that has a legitimate beef with the league is Phoenix, who got #### by a stupid rule. Just be happy you got to the finals and that you get to watch Lebron every night for the next 3 years.

Barring injury, the Spurs will be the prohibitive favorite again next year. It doesn't look like Phoenix is going to make a big move to improve since they're looking to cut costs, and the Mavericks are looking for all the world like a broken team in need of a change. The Spurs? They've got their big 3 locked up for 3 more years, and the only significant players they may lose this year are Oberto and Finley if they opt out of their deals (Finley won't, Oberto probably will). Parker and Ginobili continue to get better, Duncan is always brilliant, and they've got a few young players who have a lot of potential (James White, Jackie Butler).

I love the idea of this trade.

Z. Randolph to Chicago

#9 pick, sign&trade P.J. Brown, Chris Duhon to Portland.

Everybody wins here. Randolph immediately makes the Bulls the East favorite, as they add a legit 20-10 guy without giving up any of their talented young core. Ben Wallace is the perfect complement for Randolph becasue he covers his weaknesses, and the Bulls would have an actual low-post scoring threat. They'd be a legit title contender. Portland moves Randolph's huge contract and character problems, gets a pick they can use on a small forward to fill that hole (I love Thornton here) or Conley if he's still there. Brown is a good veteran mentor for Oden & Aldridge and Duhon is a solid backup at the point.

I love the way Portland has built through the draft, they're my team to watch over the offseason. If they made that trade, their young core could look like this.

PG - J. Jack
SG - B. Roy
SF - A. Thornton
PF - L. Aldridge
C - Oden
Bench - M. Webster, C. Duhon, F. Jones, S. Rodriguez

That's a frighteningly good young core of players, especially on the defensive end. Jack is one of the league's better defenders at PG, Roy is no slouch, Thornton is the second coming of Shawn Marion, and Aldridge and Oden are both exceptional shot blockers. Not only that, but the LaFrentz deal comes off the books before any of those starters are up for resigning, and the Miles deal one year later. They could potentially have the cap room to keep this together for years. So keep an eye on Portland.

I know it's been said a lot already, but it's time for Detroit to rebuild. They're not going to win any more titles with that crew, and at best they're probably the 3rd best team in the conference next year. Don't prolong it Joe D., the early you start rebuilding, the faster you'll be cometitive again.

A team I like to surprise people next year is Milwaukee. They got hit hard with injuries last year, but there's a lot of talent on that team, certainly enough to contend in the East.

I know it won't happen, but how awesome would it be if Seattle resigned Lewis and just built the team as a run and gun, high-scoring offense revolving around Allen, Lewis, and Durant. I would love to see that team play, they'd be absolutely unguardable.

If Cleveland can't find a shooter this offseason to play with Lebron, it will be an absolute travesty.

If K.C. Jones is in the Hall of Fame, Robert Horry has to get in.

I think Duncan and Lebron battle it out as the frontrunners for the MVP trophy next year.