Everybody and their mother has an opinion on the recent Marion for Shaq deal. Because of that, I'll try not to run on too long with this.

First of all, this deal was automatic for the Heat, I think everyone can see that. Even if Marion got injured tomorrow and never played a game in a Heat uniform, they come out ahead because they save about $10 mil on the deal and get Shaq's monster deal off the books. There weren't going to be a whole lot of takers for Shaq, and nobody would be willing to offer a player of Marion's caliber for him. Better player, better contract, easy trade to make.

For the Suns, of course, this is a completely different animal. This is, quite obviously, the not about these two players' current level of production. Marion has clearly been more productive in recent years, and he is a fantastic fit to the Suns system. No, this trade was about more than just what you see on the court. First, no matter what the two of them might say, this was about Marion and Amare not getting along. Marion has long been a tempermental player, but those in the know say that the Phoenix locker room has been particularly uncomfortable this season. So, not only do the Suns get rid of the dissenting party, but they bring in one of the most charismatic figures in sports, and a guy who has tons of championship experience. In terms of team chemistry, you can't make a much bigger swing than that. Second, the Suns are counting on seeing a better version of Shaq than the version the Heat have been getting. They're counting on O'Neal being extra-motivated by a chance to play for a title contender, and they also believe that their top-notch training staff can help Shaq in much the same way they've helped Steve Nash and Grant Hill play at a high level late in their careers. As an unintentional bonus, almost everyone in the media has been killing this trade and calling Shaq washed up. If Shaq still has anything left, that's good news for the Suns, cause an angry O'Neal is a motivated O'Neal, and as Shaq said today, "You just don't really want to get me upset. When I'm upset, I'm known to do certain things -- like win championships."

All that said, was this a good idea for the Suns? Well, I was all set to pan this trade right when I heard about it. I've been as critical as anyone of Shaq recently, and by all accounts, it looks like this is a terrible fit. However, if you believe,as I did and as many within the Suns organization apparently did, that the Suns weren't going to win the title as previously constructed, and if they felt like they needed to get rid of Marion, then is this really all that bad? Chad Ford has an article on ESPN.com talking about all the other better deals that Phoenix could've gotten. However, consider this: you're Phoenix and you know you have a closing window to win a title; you've been punished by opposing post players again and again in the playoffs; you're the team that can't get over the hump, isn't it a decent risk to bring in the Diesel and hope that he can be motivated enough to turn back the clock? With all do respect to Chad Ford (whose work I love), if I'm the Suns I'd rather take a chance on getting a rejuvenated Shaq than make any of those other deals. This really is one of those rare trades that looks incredibly one-sided on paper and after a quick look at the statistics, but becomes a calculated risk when you consider the off-court impact.

Finally, what can we expect from Phoenix now? Well, you'll see a lot more of Boris Diaw, which is one of the reasons Phoenix could make this deal. With the acquisition of Hill, Diaw's minutes have been down this year, and he's a guy who can really help them on the offensive end. Obviously, Shaq is going to struggle against the pick and roll, something that he struggled with even in his prime, but Phoenix's hope is that he'll offset that by providing valuable defense on guys like Duncan, Bynum and Yao, and that letting Amare play more help side defense will improve his defensive play. Whether or not that is actually the case will likely depend on just how motivated Shaq is, and if he can turn back the clock a few years.

You know, I’ve tried to write this post like 6 times, and every time I just stall at the beginning and give it up. Maybe I’ll actually get it written this time.

Anyway, we’ve hit the half way point of the NBA season. It’s time to look back at what we’ve learned, as well as look forward to what we can expect from the rest of the season. With that in mind, lets take a look at some of the teams that I really missed on.

Memphis Grizzlies
Wow, did I miss on these guys or what? Strangely enough, a lot of what I thought would happen with them did happen. Rudy #### really blossomed in his second year, becoming a potent scorer, J.C. Navarro has been one of the best rookies in the league and has had some truly spectacular shooting performances, and Mike Conley has played very well since returning from injury. They’re actually a decent offensive team. However, where I was wrong was thinking that they would be an improved defensive team. #### hasn’t been much of a defender, even though he has all the tools for it, Kyle Lowry isn’t having nearly as much impact as last year, and most importantly, Darko has been absolutely terrible. One reason I liked them so much was because an even slightly improved Darko would give them a much-needed shot-blocking presence in the back of their defense. Instead, Darko has, amazingly, been much, much worse than he was in Orlando last year. Of course, I also though 42 or 43 wins would get you into the playoffs out West, and that doesn’t appear to be the case at this point. Oh well, they’ll at least put themselves in good position to get Mike Beasley or DeAndre Jordan in the draft.

Chicago Bulls
I, like everyone else, have been pretty stunned by the poor performance of the Bulls. Now, to some extent we probably should’ve been able to see this coming. All the talk about a Kobe trade obviously had an effect on the young guys on this team. It was also painfully obvious that Ben Wallace was declining rapidly as a player. However, there’s no way that anyone could’ve predicted the inexplicably bad play of the Bulls’ young core players. To have one young guy regress when he should be improving is one thing, but for five guys under the age of 27? It’s absolutely incredible. Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon and Thomas are all having worse seasons than last year. We’re not just talking about slightly worse either, we’re talking about them being significantly less productive. 7 of the top 8 guys on the team (with Joe Smith as the exception) are shooting worse than they were last season. It’s absolutely mind-blowing how the young Bulls have regressed. I think we’re going to see the Bulls in the playoffs at the end of this season 1) because they’re in the East, and as bad as they’ve been they’re only a game behind the Pacers for the last playoff spot right now, but also because 2) it’s absolutely unheard of for a team full of young players to take a huge step backwards like this, and I think they’ll bounce back some and be respectable by season’s end.

Portland Trailblazers
I actually kind of thought Portland would be better than most people thought they would, but I never thought they’d have this kind of success. The biggest shocker to me has been the extraordinary play of Brandon Roy. I’ll be honest, I thought Roy was a really good player when Portland drafted him, and I thought he’d make a few All-Star teams and be a really good player, but I never thought he’d be this good, this fast. He has become the unquestioned leader of the team that has the best chemistry in the league. He does all the little things and he’s a big-time clutch player, making big shots, big defensive stops and getting big rebounds. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player with a better hesitation move than Roy, he reminds me a bit of Nash in the way that he always looks like he’s completely under control. Of course, the other big reason for the Blazers’ success has been the brilliant coaching of Nate McMillan. This Blazers team has great chemistry, they run their offensive sets really well, and they use zone defenses as well as any team in the league. That’s great coaching, McMillan has got this young team executing and believing in themselves.

Those are the teams that have really surprised this year, but we’ve also learned a lot this season about the league’s elite teams. With that in mind, I’m taking another look at my list of potential contenders and cutting it down to size a bit.

My list from the preseason looked like this (in no particular order): Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Jazz, Celtics, Nuggets, Bulls, Suns

My list now (again, in no particular order): Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers

So, why did I drop the teams I did?

Bulls are obvious, I’m not going to go over them

Jazz
They can’t defend the post at all, and I can’t bring myself to pick them in a conference with Duncan, STAT, Yao, Dirk, and now Bynum. You have to defend the post, and they can’t.

Mavs
Gone unnoticed by basically everyone is the fact that the Mavs’ defense has not been good this year. This team was 2nd in the league on offense and 5th on defense last year, this year they’re 2nd on offense and 18th on defense. Add that to their playoff failures the last two years and this team screams “paper tiger” to me.

Suns
Hardest drop from the list for me. I love Nash and I think this team is tremendously talented. However, they’re a worse defensive team than last year, and they aren’t going to win a title that way. Amare continues to be a weakness defensively in the post, and Brian Skinner brings defense, but he doesn’t have any offensive skills. Kurt Thomas was so great because he could both guard bigs and step out and hit the mid-range jumper, Skinner can’t do that. I hate it, but bad defensive teams don’t win titles.

You’ll notice a common theme on why I didn’t pick any of the previous teams. To put the importance of defense in perspective, there have only been 2 teams in the modern era who have won a title without a top 10 defense, and they were the ‘95 Rockets and the ’01 Lakers (who don’t even really count because they played great defense the year before and the year after and during the playoffs with essentially the same team, and obviously didn’t care about the regular season this year). Moral of the story is that defense is really important.

You may also be wondering why the Hornets didn’t make the list. Simply put, they don’t have a bench. I would take their starting five against any other starting unit in the league, but they don’t have the depth or the experience to make a deep run, especially not if anyone (read: Peja) gets hurt. I love the team, I love Chris Paul, they’re a great story, but I don’t think this is their year.

So, why the teams that I did pick?

I’m not going over the Spurs and Celtics, you all know why they’re on that list.

Nuggets
They have two possible starters who are out indefinitely with injury (Nene and Chucky Atkins), Carmelo’s production and efficiency is down significantly from his past two seasons, and they have a serious lack of three-point shooting. Still, they’re 25-16 and first in their division. The reason is because Allen Iverson has fully embraced being a co-star with Melo and is having the most efficient season of his career, and because Marcus Camby takes this team from being a very bad defensive team to being a very good defensive team. If Atkins comes back healthy or they can add one more shooter through a trade, I think this becomes a very dangerous offensive team as well as a good defensive team, and that makes them a contender.

Rockets
They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system. As I wrote back when I blogged the season-opener between LA and Houston, McGrady dominating the ball so much absolutely kills this offense, and they often look significantly better without him on the court. However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing.

Pistons
I left them off in the preseason because I thought they were missing the tough, killer-instinct, underdog mentality that fueled their last title run. What I didn’t count on was the Celtics getting off to a historical start and really lighting a fire under the Pistons to prove that they were the best team in the East. I honestly think that Boston’s great start had a positive impact on the Pistons, that it lit a fire under them that they didn’t have last year when LeBron trampled all over them in the playoffs. They’re also getting fantastic bench production and they execute and exploit weak defenders as well as any team in the league. I still don’t think they could beat the Spurs, but I think they could beat another team from the West if San Antonio doesn’t make the finals

Lakers
This one comes with a caveat. I reserve the right to dismiss this if the post-injury Bynum we get isn’t the same as pre-injury Bynum. LA has been a MUCH better defensive team this year because Bynum has been on the floor more, has become far less foul-prone, and has rebounded a lot better than last year. The bench and the contributions of Derek Fisher have been great, but Bynum is the key. He isn’t an elite player yet by any means, but he has great hands and finishes well on offense, and he improves their defense exponentially. If he comes back playing as well as early on this season, the Lakers are a long-shot contender.

Well, this post has run on long enough, and I’m sure you’re all tired of my wordiness. The last thing I’ll leave you with is my MVP pick for the first half of the season.

MVP: LeBron James
 With all due respect to Kevin Garnett’s fantastic work in Boston and Kobe’s exceptional play and leadership (who ‘da thunk it?), this isn’t even close. Yes, I know about Boston’s 33-7 record and how KG has gotten everyone playing great defense. I repeat, the MVP race is NOT EVEN CLOSE. Lebron uses more of his team’s possessions than anyone outside of DWade, and his offensive rating this year is 12 points higher than Flash! He averages 30-8-7 with 2 steals and a block, and he shoots almost 50%. Lebron’s AST% (an estimate of the percentage of his teammates’ field goals his assists while on the court) is 6th in the league. 6th! He’s one percentage point behind Deron Williams! It’s not quite MJ numbers that we’re talking about here, but we’re getting close. LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs. He’s the MVP, Period.

Alright, that’s it for me, I finally got this post cranked out. I’ll be sharing my opinions on the All-Star team next post, which should be pretty soon, so keep a look out for that.

Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.

Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.

I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-####, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?

The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.

In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.

Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.

Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.

Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.

It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.

Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.

Have A Happy Turkey Day All!!

Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Phoenix Suns

Coach: Mike D'Antoni
2006-2007 Record: 62-20
06-07 Expected Record: 60-22
Offensive Rating: 113.9 (1st in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 106.4 (14th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 55.1% (1st in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 95.6 (3rd in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Everything to be said about Nash has already been said. He's having an incredible run and is the engine behind one of the top offenses in NBA history.

There are a lot of great things to say about Marion, but he is as dumb as a brick sometimes. He gets to play with the greatest point guard of the decade on a championship contender with a style meshes perfectly with his skillset, and he whines constantly about being underappreciated, up to the point where he asked for a trade. Underappreciated or not, the guy needs to realize how good he has it.

I love the Grant Hill acquisition. He's still a difference maker when he's healthy and he can be a point forward and take some stress off of Nash. If he avoids injury (I know, big if), he can be a big factor for 25 minutes a night.

The Brazilian Blur is a starter on almost every other team in the league. He's a top flight scorer who is lightning quick and can hit the jumper.

Diaw showed up out of shape last year, and he had a down year all around. This year he had the Euroleague tournament over the summer, and he's arrived slimmed down and in shape. All signs point to a return to 05-06 form for Diaw.

I like Bell, he gives this team attitude that they sorely need. He'll see his minutes cut a bit this year with Hill coming in, but he's a great fit for this team. He plays good defense and knocks down open jumpers, as well as bringing intensity to the team.

I like DJ Strawberry a lot more than I like Alando Tucker. Strawberry is an extremely athletic player (he graded out #1 at the combine) who was as good a perimeter defender as anyone in college basketball last year. He's also extremely good at getting out on the break and finishing. I think he'll get some burn this year backing up Nash.

X-Factor: Amare Stoudemire - Now, you know what you're getting from Amare offensively. He's a great post scorer and finisher who finishes with authority around at rim. He'll probably average around 25 a game next year in his second year back from surgery. The question with Amare is what you're going to get on the defensive end. The reason I thought they should've moved him for KG this offseason is because KG is a dominant defensive force and one of the few players who can really match up with Duncan. With Kurt Thomas gone this year, Stoudemire has to improve as a post defender, or the Suns will probably be going home earlier than they want again.

Overview

To put in perspective just how good the Phoenix offense was, the difference in offensive rating between the worst offensive team and the 3rd best offensive team was 7 points per hundred possessions. The difference between the Suns and the 3rd best team was 4.1 . The second best shooting team was the Spurs, who had a 52.1 eFG%, a full 3 percentage points lower than the Suns. This team doesn't just run in order to score a lot, they are incredibly efficient scorers. The 06-07 season is always going to be marked with an asterisk for the Suns, as they were victims of a foolish rule that took two of their best players out of a pivotal playoff game. Whatever you think about that series, the fact is that we'll never know what would've happened if Diaw and Stoudemire hadn't been out, and that makes it tough to predict this team. Can they beat the Spurs without a good post defender? Can their high-octane style succeed in the playoffs? We'll have to wait till this year to find out.

Prediction

I have a bad feeling about this year for the Suns, and I hate that because I really like this Suns team. I think they made a mistake by not bringing in KG, and I think they'll suffer from not having Marc Iavaroni, who is a great defensive mind and one of the best prepared coaches in the business. Bringing in Hill is a good move that should improve their rotation, but I don't know if it's going to be a huge difference, and you never know if Hill can stay healthy. They had a bunch of draft picks and basically gave them away, and they gave away Kurt Thomas in a salary dump. They're still an excellent team and, in my opinion, the biggest threat to San Antonio's upset bid. However, I just have a lot of lingering doubts about them. I think Phoenix had a chance to make moves and really separate themselves in the offseason, and they just didn't do it. They're a very dangerous team, but they make me nervous.

2nd in the West - Championship Contenders

I'm loving having cable TV in the dorm room. I've watched the Team USA vs. Canada game, part of the Argentina vs. Mexico game, and the Team USA vs. Brazil game. Sure, the games involving the US aren't exactly compelling basketball, but it's interesting to see players that I don't usually get a look at, and also to see how the US players fit into a system full of stars. Some things I saw...

- If I were George Karl, I'd be trying as hard as possible to duplicate the international style of play in Denver's offense, cause Melo is a monster in the international game. He plays well off the ball and has such a versatile game that he's almost impossible to stop. Just check out these lines from the 4 US games:

16 MIN - 17 PTs
17 MIN - 22 PTs
18 MIN - 25 PTs
17 MIN - 21 PTs

That's just obscene. Seriously, I realize the competition they're playing against, but that's nasty. With a full season to mesh together, I would be very scared of the Nuggets. They have 2 elite scorers and a great defensive center, they're absolutely a championship contender.

- Olu Famutimi was the only player on Team Canada who looked remotely like he belonged on the same floor as the US players. Sam Dalembert was a complete non-factor, but Famutimi (who is currently playing in the D-League) was a dynamic player

- I think Luis Scola is going to be a huge asset for the Rockets. He's a skilled player, but he's gritty and works hard on every play. From what I saw, he has a solid jumpshot and a good passing eye for a big man. He's also much more athletic than I thought, and rebounds very well.

- Nene looked terrible. Really, really terrible. He's gained weight since the end of the NBA season, and he missed easy opportunities on multiple occasions.

- I really like Tiago Splitter. After watching him against the US, I'm shocked that he wasn't picked sooner in the draft. He's very athletic and an excellent ball-handler for a guy his size. He took Carmelo Anthony to the hoop multiple times from the elbow area, and Melo isn't lacking in the quickness department. To think of him on the Spurs a year from now is scary.

- Kobe is stunningly good when he wants to be. We all know he's the best offensive player in the league, but when he wants to be, he's an incredible defender too. The fact of the matter is that if Kobe comes out and plays hard, the Lakers are a playoff team next year, if he sulks through the season, they'll be terrible.

- I love Jason Kidd.

Other thoughts on the NBA offseason:

- Other than practically giving away Luis Scola to a division rival, I really like the Spurs' offseason. The acquisition of Ime Udoka and the signing of 2005 first round pick Ian Mahinmi, in addition to resigning basically everyone makes them look like the favorites to repeat, as well as having very solid future prospects.

- Orlando signed Adonal Foyle to replace Darko, and he'll probably give them about the same contributions they got from Darko last year, but for way less money than they'd be paying Darko. They overpaid for Rashard, but they'll definitely be better this year.

- I still think that Phoenix should've gone for KG, but other than that they've had a very solid offseason. Grant Hill was a great pickup, and he'll even help give Nash some rest because he can run the point from the SF position. D.J. Strawberry was a steal as late as they got him, I guarantee he gets some burn next year.

- The Grizzlies are my sleepers for next year. They've got great young talent at every position, and I think they'll really work in Marc Iavaroni's Phoenix-style system. I love that they went out and got Gasol's Spanish team buddy Juan Carlos Navarro.

- I didn't like Houston's draft. I hated that they passed on a bunch of very talented power forwards to reach for an undersized point guard (Aaron Brooks). However, they've had a very good offseason  overall. They took a position that was a huge weakness (PG) and made it into a strength, with Steve Francis, Mike James, and Brooks. The starter from last year Rafer "Skip 2 My Lou" Alston, will be 3rd or 4th on the depth chart. They've also significantly improved their PF position by brining in Luis Scola, Jackie Butler, and Carl Landry to replace Juwan Howard. If Yao stays healthy and McGrady can play 60-65 games and be healthy in the playoffs, they're absolutely a legit contender.

- I don't like that Dallas did nothing to shake up their team. Coming off 2 consecutive postseason chokes (Yes, I know the Warriors were a bad matchup. No, I don't care. Losing to an 8 seed is a choke), they needed to make a move, and they didn't.

- James Posey was a great pickup for Boston. They desperately needed to pick up a backup small forward, and Posey is a solid defensive player who makes perimeter shots.
 

 

 
One last note. Hoff and I are going to be finishing up the NBA Legends Competition on Wednesday. I'm thinking arguments due at 5:00 PM EST, and voting will go for 2 days and end at 5:00 PM EST on Friday. Let me know if that's an issue for you Hoff. For the rest of you, tune in Wednesday and vote for whose team of all-time greats is superior.
 

The long-awaited draft is over, so now its time to take a look at the results. It was actually a rather subdued draft until we got to the 18th pick or so, with the only real surprise being the Ray Allen trade. After that, things started going all kinds of crazy as Portland began to wheel and deal. Anyway, here's my team-by-team analysis of the draft. It's not grades, cause I don't like grades (btw, if we were to give teams a GPA based on their draft grades over time, what would Atlanta's be? 1.5? 2?). I'm going to give either a thumbs up, thumbs down, or on the fence for each team. So, starting with the Western Conference...

Dallas Mavericks - Thumbs Down

Picks - Nick Fazekas (34), Renaldas Seibutis (50), Milovan Rakovic (60)

Now, I understand that Dallas didn't have a lot to work with here, but they didn't exactly make the most of it. I'll give them the last two, cause there's not that much talent that late, but they took Fazekas, who is quite possibly the worst athlete in the draft, in front of Glen Davis and Josh McRoberts, both much better talents. I don't see Fazekas being any kind of player in the NBA, he's just too slow, and slow big guys whose trademark is their shooting don't have a great track record.

Denver Nuggets - N/A

Picks - ...

Well, that was easy

Golden State Warriors - Thumbs Up

Picks - Brandan Wright (8), Marco Belinelli (18), Stephane Lasme (46)

Big thumbs up to the Warriors, who had my second favorite draft (behind Portland's masterpiece). Not only did they manage to grab some fantastic talent, but they got rid of Jason Richardson's contract too. I questioned their selection of Bellinelli instead of Jason Smith, but it makes sense with the acquisition of Wright. Take note that there's still a possibility that Yi will end up here for a package including Wright, though Milwaukee looks like they want to keep him. Wright is a perfect player for them. He has very little range to his game, but he's money near the hoop and he's a very good shot-blocker. At worst, he's a much more talented and athletic version of Andris Biedrins. Bellinelli is a dynamic 2-guard who has great range and can slash, but he's streaky (which should mean he fits in perfectly here). Lasme was one of my favorite second round guys, and I can see him contributing immediately as an energy/defense guy for the Warriors. Very good draft.

Houston Rockets - Thumbs Down

Picks - Aaron Brooks (26), Carl Landry (31), Brad Newley (54)

I really don't get their draft. They had McRoberts and Davis staring them in the face at both 26 and 31, and they passed them both times for inferior players. Brooks was a solid sleeper, but that's only a good pick if you don't reach for it, and they reached big-time for him. What's more puzzling is that they didn't even reach for a need, they've already got Mike James and Rafer Alston at the point and a gaping hole at PF. Landry is a gritty player, but he's undersized and can't rebound. McRoberts would've been perfect here, I'm really puzzled that they passed on him.

L.A. Clippers - Thumbs Up

Picks - Al Thornton (14), Jared Jordan (45)

The Clippers basically just sat back and took the best value that was available, and they ended up with 2 really good players who are both good fits. Thornton allows them to put the disgruntled Corey Maggette on the trading block. He's a terrific athlete, and I've been saying all along he's the second coming of Shawn Marion. He was easily the best value available for them. Jordan is a pure point who should be able to back up Sam Cassell right away. His ceiling as a player isn't very high, but he's a smart guy who should be able to carve out a niche in the league. I would've gone with Taurean Green there, but I can't fault them for taking Jordan.

L.A. Lakers - Thumbs Down

Picks - Javaris Crittenton (19), Sun Yue (40), Marc Gasol (48)

This rating is contingent on them keeping Kobe Bryant, which they have repeatedly said that they want to do. Were the Lakers set on building for the future, I would be ok with the Crittenton pick. He's the ultimate high-reward point guard prospect, with a good shooting touch, suberb athleticism, and a 6'5 frame. However, he's at least 2 years away from being able to run a team, and I doubt he'll contribute much next year. I'm not sold on Yue. From what I saw of him, he's not a great athlete and he didn't really impress me that much. They did get a steal in Gasol, who most mocks had up at the top of the second round.

Memphis Grizzlies - Thumbs Up

Picks - Mike Conley (4)

Not much to say about this. They took Conley, who was the best point guard in the draft and, in my opinion, the best player on the board at #4. He got better and better as the year went on last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a big contributor this year for Memphis. He's impossibly quick and has tremendous floor vision. Absolutely the right pick for the Griz.

Minnesota Timberwolves - On The Fence

Picks - Corey Brewer (7), Chris Richard (41)

As far as their draft goes, I think they made the right moves. Brewer was the obvious pick when he fell into their laps at #7, and Richard is a great value in the second round, he would be a first rounder if he'd played anywhere but Florida. However, I can't help but feel like the Timberwolves wasted their best chance to rebuild by not getting a KG deal done. They were adamant about what they wanted in return for him, and as a result of that they miss the chance to grab draft picks in the deepest draft in recent memory. I'm fine with the picks they made, but what they didn't do with KG devalues this for me.

New Orleans Hornets - Thumbs Up

Picks - Julian Wright (13), Adam Haluska (43)

They get a thumbs up because Wright at #13 is an absolute steal. He could've easily gone 6 picks higher than that. He doesn't fit a need quite as well as Nick Young would've, but there's no question that he was the best talent left on the board. On potential alone, he's probably the 3rd best guy in the draft. He had games at Kansas where he absolutely destroyed the opposing team. If the Hornets can get some consistency out of him, this is a great pick. Haluska was a surprise, as he wasn't really on anyone's radar. Really though, once you get into the last 20 picks, everything is a stretch.

Phoenix Suns - Thumbs Down

Picks - Alando Tucker (29), D. J. Strawberry (59)

Is there anything more depressing than seeing your team trade away a first round pick for cash? Yeah, the Suns have done that 4 straight times. Not only that, but they then took Tucker at 29, who is a PF in a SF's body. Oh yeah, he can't really shoot either. They had McRoberts and Gabe Pruitt sitting there at 29, and they took Alando Tucker instead. Ugh. The Suns have really made some disappointing moves in the last 2-3 years, and it's a shame cause I think their window for winning is closing. They had the chance here to either take players or trade for players who could bolster a championship level team, and they blew it. I do like the D.J. Strawberry pick at 59 though. He'll carve out a spot in the league as a lock-down defender.

Portland Trail Blazers - Thumbs Way Up

Picks - Greg Oden (1), Rudy Fernandez (24), Petteri Koponen (30), Josh McRoberts (37), Taurean Green (52)

Not only did the Blazers make an absolute killing with their picks but they also managed to bring another piece over in the Zach Randolph trade, Channing Frye. This is the best draft I've ever seen a team have. They drafted a franchise center in Oden, they got rid of head-case Randolph and his monster contract and brought in another good young big in Frye, they drafted two lottery-level talents in Fernandez and Koponen who will continue to mature overseas (something they had to do with all the guys they were bringing in with this draft), they got the steal of the draft in McRoberts at 37 (who is a perfect complementary post guy and also a good friend of Oden's), and they picked up Green about 20 spots later than most people had him ranked. That, my friends, is one heck of a draft. Here's the really scary thing about this team. By trading Randolph's contract for Francis's shorter deal, the Blazers made sure that they will be well under the cap in 2 years when guys like Aldridge and Roy start signing extensions. They've done so well building with young talent, and it's entirely possible that they will be able to keep all of it. Can anybody in the league match the young talent on their frontline with Oden, Aldridge, Frye, and McRoberts? This team is ridiculously scary.

Sacramento Kings - Thumbs Down

Picks - Spencer Hawes (10)

It's not that I don't think Hawes is a bad player. He's probably more-or-less the next Brad Miller, and Miller has had a very solid career with a few All-Star games tossed in there. However, with all the rebuilding that Sacramento has to do, they needed a high-ceiling kind of guy, and Hawes isn't it. Julian Wright would've been the much better pick here.

San Antonio Spurs - Thumbs Up

Picks - Tiago Splitter (28), Marcus Williams (33), Giorgos Printezis (58)

It's just not fair sometimes. The best team in the league adds a lottery-level talent who will wait a year before coming over. Splitter was a perfect fit for them, and they'll be reaping the benefits in two years. Williams is a great prospect with a ton of potential, but he never put it together in college. I was a little surprised that they didn't go with Derrik Byars, but if anyone can get Williams to put things together, it's the Spurs.

Seattle Supersonics - Thumbs Up

Picks - Kevin Durant (2), Jeff Green (5)

Big props to Seattle for being gutsy with their moves. Trading Ray Allen wasn't even something I was thinking about, but it makes a lot of sense. The word from Seattle is that they want to try and resign Rashard Lewis and be able to throw Green, Durant, and Lewis out there all at once. It's a remarkable idea, and I think that they could pull it off. There are very few players in the league versatile and athletic enough to run the 2,3,and 4 spots, but these guys could do it. Can you imagine trying to match up with that? Anyway, even if they don't bring Lewis back, Green is a great compliment to Durant. Overlooked in the Allen for Green deal is that they also brought in Delonte West, who is a solid player and should be the starter at the point for them next year.

Utah Jazz - Thumbs Up

Picks - Morris Almond (25), Kyrylo Fesenko (38)

I have no opinion on Fesenko, but Almond was a great pick at 25. He was obviously the best talent left on the board, and he fills the Jazz's need for a perimeter shooter. Considering where they were picking, the Jazz did a solid job.

Just as a final note, is anyone else as excited as I am that Ray Allen and Allen Ray are on the same team? I've been waiting for this since I learned that Villanova was bringing in a freshman named Allen Ray. It's fate, it had to happen, the basketball gods brought it about.

Phoenix Suns

Roster For 07-08

PG - Steve Nash, Marcus Banks
SG - Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, Eric Piatkowski
SF - Shawn Marion, James Jones
PF - Boris Diaw
C - Amare Stoudemire

Picks

1 - 24 (24 overall)
1 - 29 (29 overall)
2 - 29 (59 overall)

I've made my stance on the Suns pretty clear recently with all the trade talks. Obviously, if they could get KG for Marion, that would be the optimum, but it doesn't seem like that's going to happen. If that's the case, then I think Phoenix has to trade Amare for KG. I've detailed the reasons why in previous posts, so check those out if you want my reasoning. Beyond that, I think they need to package their picks and try to move up and grab Jason Smith or maybe Javaris Crittenton to back up Nash. They could also try to use the unprotected first rounder they get from Atlanta next year in order to move into the lottery and grab Thornton, Young, or Wright. How scary is that above lineup, only with KG instead of Stoudemire, and with Smith and Wright added in? Would you be betting against them?

What They Should Do: Trade for KG, Trade your #24, #59, and a 2nd rounder next year to Washington or New Jersey at #16/17 to take Smith. Then package Atlanta's first rounder next year and the #29 pick to Sacramento or Philadelphia and draft Wright. Proceed to dominate the league.

What They Will Do: I have a terrible suspision that they're going to pull out of the KG deal because they don't want to part with Amare. While this wouldn't be the end of the world, I don't think they can beat the Spurs without making this move, I just don't see it happening.

Portland Trailblazers

Roster For 07-08

PG - Jarret Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, Dan Dickau
SG - Brandon Roy, Martell Webster
SF - Darius Miles, Fred Jones, Travis Outlaw
PF - Zach Randolph, LaMarcus Aldridge
C - Joel Przybilla, Raef LaFrentz

Picks

1 - 1 (1 overall)
2 - 7 (37 overall)
2 - 12 (42 overall)
2 - 22 (52 overall)
2 - 23 (53 overall)

I've said it before, but Portland is the team to watch next season, and going into the future. They're filled with young talent and they're about to add more to it. They're going to draft Oden #1, and it's absolutely the right move. Oden's been the guy from day one, and they'd be foolish to pass on him. The other big need the have, outside of the center position, is to find a solid SF. I've been hawking this deal forever, but I'll throw it out there one more time. Randolph to Chicago for P.J. Brown (sign and trade), Chris Duhon, and the #9 pick. It makes an amazing amount of sense for both teams, and allows Portland to take Wright or Thornton (maybe even Green if they're lucky) to shore up the wing position. Other than that, the Blazers would really love to part with Darius Miles, but I can't think of anyone who would possibly want him, so I think they're stuck with his contract. Moving away from that and back to the draft, we see that Portland absolutely owns the second round this year. With 4 picks, look for them to go international with a few and take some proven college guys with the others. Names to look for are Petteri Koponen, Jared Dudley, Demetris Nichols (love this guy for them), Ali Traore, Stephane Lasme, D.J. Strawberry, and Rayshawn Terry.

What They Should Do: Take Oden, trade Randolph for a lottery pick, land Nichols (a perfect fit for this team) in the second round, and persuade Miles to listen to his knees and retire. When the highlight of your career is that you were in a bad movie with Scarlett Johansson, you need to think about hangin em up.

What They Will Do: There's been a lot of talk about them trying to move into the top 5 and take Mike Conley. I don't put much stock in this, but it would be a terrible idea. Point guard is a position of strength for this team right now, with two good young players who are improving, why waste assets to get another point instead of addressing a position of need?

Sacramento Kings

Roster For 07-08

PG - Mike Bibby, Quincy Douby
SG - Kevin Martin, Francisco Garcia
SF - Ron Artest, John Salmons
PF - Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Kenny Thomas
C - Brad Miller

Picks

1 - 10 (10 overall)

Wow, this team got old quickly, didn't they? It's not as though they don't have talent, it's just that it's all either old or crazy. Their best bet right now is to ship out Bibby while he still has value and Artest before he kills someone and see what they can get back. I messed around with a bunch of trades for them, and I'm not sure what exactly to do with this roster. Here's an interesting trade though though.

Sacramento gets Carlos Arroyo, the expiring contracts of Pat Garrity and Keyon Dooling, Darko Milicic via sign & trade, and Orlando's first rounder next year.

Orlando gets Mike Bibby and Ron Artest.

Looks kind of crazy at first, and it's not typically my type of trade, but doesn't this make sense? Sactown gets expiring contracts, a draft pick, a promising young point in Arroyo, and a good young post in Darko. Orlando fills needs at point guard and on the wing. Sure, Artest is crazy, but aren't you buying low on him right now? Anything could happen, but you can go to war in the east with a core of Bibby, Artest and Howard. Just something to think about.

What They Should Do: Drop contracts in any way that they can, hopefully picking up some draft picks/prospects in the process. This team needs to be completely rebuilt around Kevin Martin. With the 10th pick, take whoever the best player left on the board is, they have needs at every position.

What They Will Do: Demand too much in trade for their guys, keep everyone there, and have a miserable season until Artest guns down the Maloof brothers in cold blood while screaming bad rap lyrics. Poor Reggie Theus.

5 more teams. I'm planning on finishing this tonight, then posting a list of my favorite and least favorite players tomorrow before I live blog the draft.

I remember reading an article in Sports Illustrated in 2001 that was all about the new generation of players that was changing the face of the playoffs. The group of Vince Carter, Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Tracy Mcgrady, Baron Davis, Kevin Garnett and the rest were entering the peak of their career and promising to give us compelling matchups for the rest of the decade. This was the dynamic group of players who would fill the void left by the Jordan generation, who were all either retired or soon to retire (Barkley, Stockton, Malone, Hardaway, Reggie, Pippen). Fast forward to now. We're on the other side of most of these players' prime years, and between injuries, dissappointing performances, and managerial incompetence, that generation has left us mostly dissappointed. The decade has been dominated by Shaq, the Pistons' team-oriented style, and the one star of this generation who has lived up to his billing, Tim Duncan. As the torch seems to be passing to the next wave of stars (Lebron, Wade, Melo, Parker, Bosh), its time to take a look at where there players stand in the grand scheme of things. What is the historical legacy of this group, which popularized jumping to the pros after 1 year or just straight out of high school.

In 1996, the NBA came out with a list of the 50 greatest players in its history. That was when most of these guys were just starting their careers. Of those 50, only Shaq is still an active player. So, the question is, who from this generation of players deserves a spot on that list? Keep in mind, we're not just talking about who's going to be in the Hall of Fame. We're talking about the best of the best, the guys who you're going to look back on in 20 years and be proud to tell your kids/grandkids, "yeah, I saw him play". The guys we choose have to be good enough to knock one of the guys on that list off. How will this generation be remembered? Who deserves to be called "the greatest"?

1) Tim Duncan, PF

746 GP, 50.9% FG, 68% FT, 11.9 RPG, 3.2 APG, 2.4 BPG, 21.8 PPG

There should be absolutely no doubt about this one. He'll go down in history as the best power forward ever, and he's one of the two most dominant players of the decade. He's unarguably one of the top 50, and you can certainly make a case for him being top 10.

2) Kobe Bryant, SG

784 GP, 45.3% FG, 33.7% 3PT, 83.8% FT, 5.2 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, 24.6 PPG

Along with Duncan, I think he's the only unarguable inclusion on this list. When taking into account the era that Wilt played in, Kobe might be the greatest pure scorer of all time. Whether you love him or hate him (there seems to be no middle ground), you have to be in awe of his brilliance. The most talented player in the league, bar none.

3) Kevin Garnett, PF

927 GP, 49.1% FG, 78% FT, 11.4 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.7 BPG, 20.5 PPG

He will always be remembered for breaking open the HS to pro floodgates and for his landmark contract with the Wolves. The verdict is still out as to whether he will always be remembered as the guy who couldn't quite get it done. Regardless of whether or not Garnett ever does get his ring, he's still proven to be a remarkable basketball player. I'm willing to overlook his playoff struggles in light of his being the most versatile player ever to play the game. He's been stuck on a bad team for the past few years, but it wasn't long ago that we were debating whether he or Duncan was the better player.

4) Allen Iverson, PG/SG

747 GP, 41.8 MPG, 44.2% FG, 31.1 3PT, 77.7% FT, 3.9 RPG, 6.2 APG, 2.3 SPG, 27.9 PPG

I went back and forth on this one because I find it very hard to look at AI's career objectively. He's one of the most prolific scorers of all time, but he's certainly not the most efficient scorer ever to play. He's been criticized for his attitude towards practice and he's been criticized for the amount of shots he takes. However, he's one of the most competitive players in the game and plays completely without fear. To watch Iverson is to watch heart triumph over stature. At the end of the day, his amazing ability to score at a mere 6 feet tall and his playoff run where he nearly single-handedly carried the Sixers to the finals are enough for him to make the list.

On the Brink (likely Hall of Famers, but not top 50)

Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Steve Nash

Dirk Nowitzki

Nowitzki deserves a special note because I think that more than anyone, he has the potential to jump up this list. He's really just entered his prime as a player and has hit a turning point in his career after the first round loss to the Warriors this year. His place in history will be determined by how he responds to the accusations that he's a weak player.