Ah, college basketball. NBA discussions are fun, and football is alright, but like any good North Carolina resident, my heart is in college basketball. Unlike the NBA with all its offseason movement, college basketball doesn't have a whole lot going on between the last note of "One Shining Moment" and tipoff of the opening game. However, right now we get some early insight into some of the top players in the country next year through their participation in the Pan Am Games. I'm going to take a quick look at the team, who got on, who got left out, and what this tells us heading into next year.
The Team
Joey Dorsey, C/F, Memphis - College Basketball's premier interview (now that Glen Davis is out the door), is also one of the nation's best rebounders. A 6'9, 270-pound athlete, he's a force to be reckoned with in the paint. To say that his offensive game is raw would be an understatement, as his general philosophy is in the Jason Maxiell vein of "if at all possible, dunk", but hey, whatever works. He's the perfect post for a very talented run-and-gun Memphis team, as he can rip down boards and run the floor well. Next year I'd expect much of the same from him, with numbers like 11-13-2.5 and a very high FG%.
Wayne Ellington, G, UNC - It was interesting to me that they took Ellington over Chris Lofton on this team. Ellington must have really wowed them in workouts, cause frankly he wasn't all that impressive last year. We know he's talented and undoubtedly will have a fine career at UNC, but he doesn't bring a lot to the table beyond scoring. Ellington is interesting to watch, cause unlike most top prospects coming in today, he doesn't have a real smooth game. He plays a really herky-jerky style, changing speeds a lot, and he has a weird hitch in his jumper that doesn't make you think he'd be as good a shooter as he actually is. Interesting choice over Lofton, and it bodes well for Tarheel fans that he obviously impressed the coaches a lot.
Shan Foster,G/F, Vanderbilt - I'll confess to not knowing a whole lot about Foster outside of various highlights I've seen. He's an exceptional perimeter shooter (you'll see that a lot, perimeter shooting is hugely important in international play) with a beautiful looking shot. He doesn't turn the ball over much, and his offensive rating (according to kenpom.com) was actually higher than Derrick Byars last season. With Byars and Dan Cage gone next season, Vandy will probably struggle, but it's not out of the question to think that Foster will average 20+ PPG. He's played well against good teams (24 against Florida, 27 against Alabama, 25 against Georgia Tech, 33 against South Carolina), so he's probably someone to watch next year in the SEC.
James Gist, F, Maryland - This one surprised me. Gist has always had huge potential, as he's 6'8, runs the floor like a guard, and is a tremendous leaper. However, he's never really put that together to become a legit star. Maryland lost a ton of talent to graduation (Mike Jones, Ekene Ibekwe, D.J. Strawberry, Will Bowers), and will be leaning heavily on Gist for offensive production (along with guards Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes). If Gist can deliver as an All-ACC caliber interior force, Maryland can compete, so seeing him make the team is good news for them.
Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown - What more can I say about this guy? You can't teach 7'2. He'll probably be a preseason All-American on a lot of lists, and he'll be a lottery pick next year in the draft. I don't know if I really buy that he's going to come back and just destroy everybody, since I think he benefited a ton from Jeff Green, but he's improved every year, and I think we should expect something like 16-9-2.5 from him at the very least.
Maarty Leunen, F, Oregon - You gotta love Maarty. On a team full of flashy guards with gaudy numbers, he did the grunt work, and ended up being a double-double machine. Every team needs a garbage man (and I say that with the greatest affection, as that is typically the role I play on the pickup court), and Leunen is one of the best of them. I wouldn't expect a huge season out of Maarty, but he's a guy who does the little things, and you can always use that on a college basketball team.
Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver, G, Wash. St. - I imagine a lot of people were surprised at the inclusion of these 2 guys on the team. Obviously, people weren't paying attention to the surprise team of last year in Washington State. Both of these guys bring something that at time the US has been seriously lacking in international play, and that's defense. Wash. St. road it's fantastic defense to a tourney berth, and Low and Weaver are the catalysts. Low is also an exceptional perimeter shooter, hitting just under 40% from behind the arc, while Weaver fills up the stat sheet like few other players in college basketball (11.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.6 APG, 2.2 STL, 1.2 BLK). The Cougars return almost everybody from last year's team, so watch for Low and Weaver to keep them in the top 25 for most of the year.
Eric Maynor, G, VCU - The hero of last year's upset over Duke, Maynor is one of the best pure points in the college game. Though his perimeter shot is a bit lacking, he's a terrific penetrator and distributor. For a guy who is 6'2, he's also a terrific rebounder, averaging 4.2 a game (he was 2 points away from dropping a triple double on George Mason last year). For anyone who was wondering, this should provide validation that last year's success against Duke was no fluke. VCU loses 2 of their top scorers next year, but they keep Maynor, and that should be enough to keep them in the running for an NCAA bid and another upset opportunity.
Drew Neitzel, G, MSU - Before last year, I had this to say about Neitzel when I previewed the college basketball year.
"Most Overrated: Drew Neitzel, Michigan State People
are projecting him to be the leader of this team, which is an awefully
large burden to put on a guy who averaged under 6 assists on a team
with Shannon Brown, Maurice Ager, and Paul Davis. Michigan State will
struggle mightily this year."
I will now take my foot and slowly insert it into my mouth. Suffice it to say I was a little off on my prediction. Neitzel turned out to be a phenomenal player on a mediocre team, and basically carried them on his back all year. In only 2 games did he score single digits, and he posted games of 32, 29, 28 (twice), and 26 (twice). The Spartans lose no one next year and have a highly touted recruiting class coming in. They look primed to be a top 10 squad, and Neitzel will probably compete for player of the year honors both in his conference and nationally.
Scottie Reynolds, G, Villanova - Reynolds impressing coach Jay Wright and making it on the team is a very good thing for Nova fans. The only Reynolds is missing in his game is consistency, which is common for a freshman. He was erratic and had a lot of nights where he just didn't do a whole lot. When he was on though, Reynolds was nigh-unstoppable. He had outings of 29, 27, 26 , 25 (3 times), and went absolutely buck wild against UConn for 40 points. Not too shabby for a freshman. With the team losing Curtis Sumpter, Mike Nardi, and Will Sheridan, the Cats need Reynolds to be consistently brilliant next year.
D.J. White, F, Indiana - Coming off of surgery last year, White recovered the brilliance of his freshman year, averaging 14 and 7 and being a constant double-double threat (he posted 8 of them last year). He's a tremendous athlete and should provide a great compliment to Eric Gordon for the Hoosiers, giving them one of the best inside-outside combinations in the nation. White seemed to get stronger as the year went on last year, playing more minutes and scoring more consistently, and I think we can expect big things from him this year.
Notable Absences
Chris Lofton, G, Tennessee - I'm rather confused by this one, since Lofton is a great shooter, solid defender, and probably a preseason first-team All-American next year. He must've either really bombed in tryouts, or everyone else must have played out of their minds. Still, I'd rather have him on the team than Ellington or Low.
Brian Butch, C, Wisconsin - Butch came into Wisconsin with huge hype, but has had a fairly disappointing career marred by injury problems. Still, he's the type of big, skilled center that usually excels in international play, and I can't help but wonder if the team is going to regret leaving him home. It's probably better for Wisconsin though, making sure he'll be good and healthy going into the season.
Brandon Costner, F, NC State - He's not really a notable absence, but I just had to point out that my boy from the Wolfpack was part of the initial group of 30. Next year, keep an eye out for Costner, the best 3PT shooting big man in college basketball (you heard it here first).
Sherron Collins and Mario Chalmers, G, Kansas - Kind of amazing that neither of these guys made it. Both part of the best backcourt in college basketball (and it isn't even close), they're immensely talented players, and I'm surprised that one or the other didn't make it. Chalmers in particular is a surprise because he's a good shooter and one of the best defensive guards in the country.