I've been trying for the last few months to get the nickname "the Hammer" stuck on Dwight Howard, but that's over now. Make no mistake, Dwight Howard is Superman.
We've just gotten the first iconic moment in a career that promises to be full of them. On a night when he actually had two better dunks, the Superman Dunk will be remembered for the way Howard galvanized the crowd and put on display just how freakish an athlete he is. Whatever you think about the dunk/non-dunk (yes, I know he didn't really dunk it), it was a stunning display of athleticism, and it had the rest of the All-Stars going nuts.
In case you missed it guys, the dunk contest is back. The only contests that immediately come to mind as being as good as this one are the original ABA Dr. J vs David "Skywalker" Thompson, MJ vs. Dominique and Vince Carter completely blowing everyone away in 2000.
Jamario Moon and Rudy #### actually had some really quality dunks, but nobody noticed because Green and Howard set the bar so high. Rudy's first dunk was basically the same as the 2nd dunk that Jordan threw down in that '88 contest, only Rudy finished with just his left hand, and his second dunk was similar to Green's dunk from last year, only with a higher degree of difficulty. Moon's left-handed free throw line dunk was extremely impressive, only he sabotaged himself by setting the tape up. Just think what he might have been able to do if he'd practiced that dunk.
Green's cupcake dunk was mind-blowing and incredibly entertaining, but suffered the same problem that Howard's Sticker Dunk did last year, the judges just couldn't see it properly. Great dunk and great showmanship though, that's one that people will remember for a while. The barefoot dunk was great, but he would've been better off combining that with the lob over the backboard. He suffered from doing two similar dunks back-to-back.
However, the night belonged to Howard, who did things that big men just aren't supposed to be able to do. For his first dunk, he basically took what Andre Iguadola did, then added an insane degree of difficulty by tossing the ball himself and then finishing with a left-handed windmill. Um...wow. The Superman Dunk was so ridiculous that I can't get over it. To see a guy that big jump that high and then just throw the ball down into the basket...just awesome. He had everybody in the building on their feet in disbelief. His third dunk, to me, was the most impressive. To be able to catch a ball off the bounce with your left hand, tap it off the backboard, then catch it with your right hand and stuff it through is just an awesome display of athleticism and coordination. For a 7-foot center to be able to do that? Unreal. We throw the term "freak" around a lot in sports when describing athleticism, but Dwight Howard truly is a freak. He's like something from another planet...you might even say he's like "The Man of Tomorrow".
Well, I wanted to make this post a while ago, but I've been fighting sickness for the last two weeks, so it's slightly belated. Anyway, I'm gonna give you my All-Star Teams, and explain to you why some of the guys you might expect to be there aren't.
First of all, note that this is not a lifetime achievement award. I do not care what you did last year, nor do I care what you might be expected to do for the rest of the year. Performance is what matters.
Second, while I do consider your team's record, it's not a huge factor to me. I'm not going to penalize you for having crappy teammates.
Finally, I'm going to list some relevant statistics for each player. These are not going to be PPG or RPG statistics, cause frankly those are usually poor measures of performance and you can find them anywhere. Because I'm going to be listing some statistics that some of you might not recognize, I'll give you a quick synopsis of some of them.
eFG (effective field goal percentage) - This is simply field goal percentage, except it gives extra credit for three-pointers.
ORtg (Offensive Rating) - A measure of how efficient an offensive player is. It's a ridiculously complicated formula, but basically it estimates how many points a player creates per every 100 possessions they use.
USG% (Usage %)- The estimated percentage of the team's possessions that a player uses while they're on the floor. As a general rule, as USG% goes up, ORtg goes down (harder to be efficient the more you're asked to do). Point Guards often have lower USG% (around 20%), whereas high-volume scorers (DWade, LeBron, Kobe, etc.) usually have a USG% of 30% or more.
AST% - An estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals that you assist on while you're on the floor.
TO% - estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions. Anything below 10 is outstanding, over 20% is usually pretty bad.
REB% - An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds that a player grabbed while he was on the floor.
(most statistics courtesy of basketballreference.com)
That said, on to the teams.
xphoenix87's Eastern Conference All-Stars
Starting Lineup
Guard-Chauncey Billups (53.4% eFG, 90.4% FT, 22.5 USG%, 128 ORtg, 34.6 AST%, 12.7 TO%) One of the steadiest players in the league, and one of the most ruthlessly efficient offensive players out there. He's a nightmare to match up against for most teams because he's so good at backing down opposing point guards and abusing them with short turnaround jumpers or headfaking them into fouling him. Billups was an easy pick.
Guard-Jose Calderon (58.7% eFG, 91.7% FT, 130 ORtg, 44.8 AST%, 13.8 TO%, 5.58 A/T) I know, he didn't even make the All-Star team, I must be out of my mind to have him as a starter, right? Well, lets look at him versus the actual All-Star starters, Jason Kidd and Dwayne Wade. There's been a lot of hype about Kidd and his near-triple double pace this season, but how about the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.
Forward-LeBron (33.6 USG%, 116 ORtg, 51.3% eFG, 37.8 AST%, 11 TO%, 11.8 REB%) Any argument that LeBron should be the starter here? Didn't think so, moving on.
Forward-KG (24.2 USG%, 120 ORtg, 55.1% eFG, 17.2 REB%, 20.5 AST%) More than any statistic, the impact of Garnett is most pronounced in these numbers.
106.9 24
98 38
The first two numbers are Boston's defensive rating and win total from last year. The second two are those same numbers from this year. Defensive impact has been notoriously tricky to quantify, but the effect of Garnett on Boston has been palpable.
Center-Dwight Howard (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 21.6 REB%, 60.2% eFG) Again, anyone want to argue this? Howard is easily the most dominant center in the conference, if not the entire league.
Bench
Guard-Dwyane Wade (33 USG%, 103 ORtg, 35.8 AST%, 9 FTA/36, 75.6% FT, 46.8% eFG) Is he having a down year? Yeah, sure, but he's still Dwyane Wade. He still gets to the line as well as anyone in the league, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.
Guard-Rip Hamilton (24.7 USG%, 114 ORtg, 53.1% eFG, 23 AST%, 10.4 TO%, 81.5% FT) Honestly, I searched really hard to find someone who deserved this spot, maybe someone that everyone else had missed. No dice. As I mentioned above, the guards in the East are so bad that I'm really kind of reaching here (as opposed to the West, which is overflowing with candidates). In the end, nobody I looked at was having a better year than Hamilton. A lot of people like Ray Allen here because of how well Boston has played, but I'm not buying that, and Rip is having a better year. Hamilton is an extremely efficient scorer, and might be the league's best at using off the ball screens (It's between he and Kevin Martin IMO). In addition, he's also a very solid defensive player (as with most Pistons players).
Forward-Caron Butler (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 50.8% eFG, 91.3% FT, 20.5 AST%) Butler supposedly made "The Jump" last year when he made it into his first All-Star game. Well, if he was jumping last year, he's flying this year. His turnovers are down, his assists are way up, his shooting percentages are way up, and he's carrying the Wizards in Gilbert Arenas' absence. His mid-range game has always been among the best in the league, but this year he has really increased his range, shooting 36.5% from long-range.
Forward-Paul Pierce (25.7 USG%, 110 ORtg, 49.6% eFG, 22.8 AST%, 8.8 REB%) I was trying to decide between Pierce and Richard Jefferson here, and really the difference between the two is minimal. Their stat profiles are so similar that it's almost impossible to chose between them. Jefferson is putting up better pure scoring numbers, but Pierce is the better distributor and rebounder. In the end, it comes down to Pierce being the superior defensive player and more proven star.
Center-Chris Bosh (28.6 USG%, 117 ORtg, 14.9 REB%, 10.2 TO%, 48.9% eFG, 85.6% FT) Even if Bosh didn't actually deserve this, he's really the only choice. At any rate, Bosh is having the best season of his career. He's often the forgotten 4th member of that LeBron, Wade, Melo draft class, but he has absolutel y kept himself at that level. He hasn't yet become a dominant defensive force, but he's definitely improving as a disruptive force who can defend without fouling. Offensively, he rivals Garnett and Duncan as the best face-up post men in the league. He's got a great jab step, and he's so quick and so long that he's almost impossible to guard without help. That quickness means he gets to the line a TON, and his FT% has shot up to 85% this season. He's also got great hands, makes quick decisions, and picks his spots well, leading to very low turnover numbers for a guy his size who has such a high usage rate.
Wild Card #1-Richard Jefferson (27.5 ORtg, 111 ORtg, 48.5% eFG, 80.4% FT) If I struggled with Jefferson vs. Pierce above, it didn't take a lot of thought to put him here. A bit overlooked in the Nets' collapse, Jefferson is completing his transformation from a role player who finished Jason Kidd alley-oops into the team's star-quality first option. It isn't the most efficient year of Jefferson's career, but he's taking on a much bigger role in the offense, and he's thriving.
Wild Card #2-Josh Smith (26.5 USG%, 100 ORtg, 13 REB%, 45.3% eFG, 20 AST%, 3.4 BPG, 2 SPG) There were three people I considered here: Smith, Antwan Jamison, and Tayshaun Prince. Jamison is having a solid year, and he's rebounding than he ever has in his career. He doesn't make many mistakes (4th lowest TO% in the league), but the fact that he shoots 30% from the field really hurts him. He also doesn't play defense, and he just isn't a good enough offensive player to make up for that and get on the team for me. Prince is a fantastic player who often gets overlooked in Detroit, but he's a matchup nightmare with his length and versatility, and he's one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. However, if I'm going to go with a defensive force, it's got to be Smith. He might not have much polish as an offensive player yet, but Smith is the rare player who can be a dominating defensive force against multiple positions. Like Andrei Kirilenko, he can match up with wing defenders, but he's also a force defending the rim and drifting into passing lanes. The Hawks are 9th in the league in defense, and the biggest reason is Smith's game-altering presence.
Some guys of note on the outside looking in
Kidd - People get wrapped up in the whole triple-double thing, but the fact is that Kidd has really fallen off as an offensive player. He can't finish around the rim at all anymore, and he's turning the ball over at a prodigious rate. People need to start getting used to the idea that the 34-year old Kidd may not be an elite point guard any more.
Jamison - I went over this above. Very good offensive player, very bad defensive player.
Michael Redd - What I said about Jamison, only more pronounced. To say that he plays matador defense is an understatement.
Hedo Turkoglu - Hedo is a fantastic story this year as he has really improved his play and become a key part of Orlando's success. He's had some truly great moments at the ends of games too. However, I think he's much more a top-tier role player than he is an all-star. He isn't a good defender, and his offensive numbers are good, but not great.
Joe Johnson - He's only noteworthy because he's on the actual all-star team. In reality he's having his worst season as a Hawk, and doesn't deserve to be on the team.
Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.
Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.
I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-####, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.
In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.
Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.
Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.
Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.
It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.
Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.
Coach: Stan Van Gundy 2006-2007 Record: 40-42 06-07 Expected Record: 43-39 Offensive Rating: 104.6 (24th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 104.4 (7th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 50% (13th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 89.9 (26th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Dwight Howard is a monster. I watched him on the US team over the summer and was struck by how much he stood out among some of the world's best players. He's just completely physically overpowering, almost like a young Shaq. Scary thought, Howard is only 21 and would be a senior in college this year without early entry. He's really turnover prone and doesn't shoot well from the line, and he's still a dominant player. The turnovers are a common problem with young players, and he showed some improvement from the charity stripe in the preseason. He's still very raw on the offensive end, but he's a solid offensive player because of his incredible physical gifts. He's already an elite rebounder and very good shotblocker, once he polishes up his offensive game, watch out.
The Magic paid Rashard Lewis WAY too much, but he's still a very good player. He's an extremely efficient scorer who can shoots great percentages and doesn't turn the ball over much. If you could quibble with any part of Lewis's offensive game it's that he doesn't get to the free throw line much, though he's been getting better at that the last few years as he's developing more of a post-up game. Defensively, he's really limited despite his length and athletic gifts. He's going to have to play mostly power forward this year with the Injury to Tony Battie, and he doesn't do well with ####ing in the post. I wouldn't be surprised to see Orlando play a good deal of zone this year where Lewis can be a decent asset due to his length.
Hedo Turkoglu is, in many ways, a very similar player to Lewis. He's a very good perimeter shooter, and a poor defender despite his size. He was set to lose a lot of minutes with the acquisition of Lewis, but the injury to Battie gives him an opportunity to play a big role and prove his value to the team. He's actually a very good ballhandler and distributor for his size, posting a great assist ratio for a non-PG. He's another guy who would benefit greatly from playing in a zone due to his length.
I would expect Ariza to take over most of Keith Bogans' minutes this year. He's a great athlete who rebounds really well for a SF, and is among the best finishers in the league (68.5% of his FG attempts were right at the rim, and he made 64.2% of those shots). He's a pretty terrible shooter, but he's the one player on the Magic who is a really dynamic slasher on the wings. He's also developing into a really good defensive player with his quickness, averaging 2 steals per 40 minutes so far in his career.
I was really surprised when I watched J.J. Redick playing in the preseason. Now, I know tha preseason rarely means anything, but I watched one game where he missed 4 or 5 wide open shots. For most players, that's not a big deal, but Redick NEVER missed wide-open shots in college, it's what made him such a great player. He can't play defense at all (guys were driving by him like he wasn't even there), and he's not a great ballhandler, so he can't just be a good shooter, he has to be a great shooter. It could be nothing, and he could end up shooting fine this season, but it was pretty shocking to watch J.J. front rim jumper after jumper.
X-Factor: Jameer Nelson - Nelson really came back to earth last year after having a sensational second year. His shooting percentages really plummeted, most noticeably finishing around the rim, where his percentage dropped 80 points. Nelson is such a young player that it's tough to determine which year's result to trust. I'm inclined to think that Nelson will return more to the form he showed 2 years ago. Despite his lack of height, Nelson was been a good finisher and rebounder throughout his playing career because he's so strong, and I just can't see him shooting so poorly around the rim again. Also, with the improvement of Howard and all the shooters around him, as well as Nelson's own improvement, we can probably expect his assist totals to go up by a substantial amount. If he ends up being a MIP candidate as some are predicting for this season, the Magic will be in real good shape.
Overview
Last year was a really good year for the Magic by most accounts. Despite some regression from their young point guard, they leapt into the playoffs behind a full year from Grant Hill and a huge jump from Dwight Howard. They won with defense, relying on the twin shotblocking machines of Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic. Offensively, Orlando actually did a decent job in most categories, shooting above average from the field, rebounding real well on the offensive end, and getting to the free throw line a lot. Their one problem was turnovers, and it absolutely killed their offensive efficiency. With turnover machines Milicic and Howard getting the ball a lot in the post, the team turned the ball over more often than any other team in the league. In the offseason, the Magic decided to whip out their checkbooks in a big way, signing Rashard Lewis to a huge max deal, but losing Hill and Milicic at the same time.
Prediction
This year projects to be a very different look from last year with their personnel change. Replacing Milicic with Lewis and losing Battie for the year will hurt them defensively, but with defensive-minded Stan Van Gundy as coach and the presence of Howard underneath, they still figure to be a good defensive team. Offensively, Lewis is going to offer a big upgrade, but most of their offensive development is going to be determined by the improvement of their young guys (Howard, Nelson, and Ariza) and their ability to cut down on turnovers. Realistically, I think we can expect a 45-46 win season from the Magic, but they're not yet really a threat to win the Eastern Conference. I'd give them one more year to grow and mesh together before expecting real big things out of them.
Ugh, I just finished writing this whole thing, then had a problem with my PC and lost it all. Alas. Such is my dedication to bringing you people all the latest and greatest NBA news that I will tirelessly type it all up again...or I'm just really bored right now and need something to do.
You know what I love about the NBA summer league? It isn't seeing how all the highly drafted rookies do. No, it's seeing all the guys who I remember from their college days, but who dropped off the face of the planet after failing to make it big in the pros. Guys like Josh Powell (who ruined a promising college career by leaving too early, not that I'm bitter), Brandon Bass (ditto), Von Wafer (seeing a trend?), my boy Julius Hodge (please Jules, do something this year so I have a State player to cheer for), and D'Or Fischer (anybody else remember him leading the nation in blocks?). Heck, we've even had a Mateen Cleaves sighting. Can't beat the NBA summer league for seeing those former college stars...well, except for maybe the NBDL.
So, sifting through the worthlessness that is most of the summer league, what are the few things that we can take from what we've seen so far?
Tyrus Thomas has apparently developed a solid mid-range jumpshot, which is big trouble for the rest of the league. Thomas might be the quickest big in the game, and if defenders can't lay off him from 15 feet, we might be seeing a whole lot more highlight reel dunks next year.
Marco Bellinelli has no conscience. Through 3 games, he's taken 56 shots at a rate of a shot every 2 minutes. Even in the notoriously foul-heavy summer league, Bellinelli has taken almost twice as many 3-pointers as free throws. The phrase "quick trigger" does not do the man justice. In other words, he'll be perfect for Nellieball.
Outside of 1 quarter against Cleveland, Yi has been thoroughly unimpressive. He's shooting a terrible percentage and most of his points have come from the line, which is deceptive because of the increased amount of fouls called in the summer league. Well, at least he's got a pretty free-throw stroke.
Is it just me, or is Desagana Diop morphing into a poor man's Dikembe Mutumbo? They even kind of look alike.
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J.J. Redick has been on fire at the Orlando summer league so far, though on one play he saw there was too much traffic in the lane and promptly pulled a U-turn to get away. Sorry, that was a low blow. J.J., if I hurt your feelings, I can send some tissues.
Other than summer league play, the other big NBA news is that the salary cap was announced today ($56.6 mil), meaning that free agent deals can officially be finalized.
Apparently, the Magic have worked out a sign and trade with Seattle where they send a second rounder to the Sonics in order to get Bird rights to Rashard Lewis so they can sign him for 6 years instead of 5. Lewis' deal will start at around $16 mil (max for a 9-year veteran) and end up at around $25 mil in his last year. Yeah, have fun with that one Magic fans.
Mo Williams is seriously considering signing with Miami, and I'm puzzled as to why. I mean, that team is going downhill fast, and you can get twice as much money from Milwaukee, which is a young, quickly improving team where you're one of the leaders. It really wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bucks were better than the Heat next year if Williams comes back. Again, I don't understand the motivation.
Trey Johnson on Williams' decision,
"It's hard to tell where he's leaning. I just told him it would be lovely if he comes to Miami and I make the roster, too." Lovely, Trey? What are you, an 80-year-old woman? Weird quote.
The big free agent mystery now? Darko's final destination. With Charlotte reportedly close to inking Gerald Wallace, Darko is the biggest catch still available. However, there aren't many teams that can offer him the $8-9 mil a year that he wants. Memphis is apparently interested, and Milwaukee would probably make a move pending the Darko and Williams situations. The other option is Charlotte, who would still have enough cap space to offer him what he wants if they sign Gerald Wallace to a $12-13 mil deal.
Well, KG and Kobe trade talks have settled down, and it appears that we'll spend another season with 2 of the league's biggest stars toiling away in futility on bad teams. Sigh. NBA GMs have no spine. Seriously guys, we know you don't like to trade your superstars, but you've got to know when to cut bait and rebuild. Really, you can actually hear KG's trade value plummeting if you listen hard enough.
That's it for now, your daily (and by "daily", I mean "whenever-the-heck-I-feel-like-it") NBA update. I'll leave you with my trivia question of the day, and the imaginary prize goes to the first person who can answer it.
Q: There are 3 players in NCAA history with over 1000 assists on their career. They all played in the ACC. List them in order (most assists to least) and name the school they played for.
Really, the NBA astounds me sometimes. It seems that teams never learn their lesson when it comes to free agents. It's not really that hard guys, just stop paying guys twice as much as they're worth and locking them up in long contracts. Ugh, I should be a GM, I really should.
The Rashard Lewis Deal
On the surface, this deal has a lot of logical things going for it. Grant Hill is headed out of town, and the Magic desperately need wing help. In addition, they've got to extend Dwight Howard next year, so this is the last real chance they get to play the free agent market for a while. Lewis is a versatile scorer, and his perimeter shooting should help open things up for Howard (seen here defending his future teammate). However, the problem is that Orlando is paying Lewis superstar money, and he isn't a superstar. He's a very good player, but he's not going to be the star on a championship team. Now, the Magic might be able to work this out in the end because they have Howard there, but as a general principle, it's a bad idea to pay franchise money to a guy who isn't a franchise player (as Indiana and Boston have found out with O'Neal and Pierce). While a guy like Duncan is worth it, a second tier star like Lewis is going to end up crippling your cap space with a contract like that, and you eventually won't be able to acquire anymore pieces to flesh out your team. Now, if Howard develops into the next Shaq over the next few years and Orlando ends up getting a title out of this pair, then you can throw this out the window. More likely situation? The Magic get to the point where they can't quite make it over the hump, but their lack of cap space around their two stars prevents them from improving. I love Lewis as a fit for the Magic, but I wouldn't have maxed him out in order to get him.
The Mid-Level Shooter Exception
Apparently, the thing to do at the moment is to sign one-dimensional shooters who have had one good year to the full mid-level exception. Jason Kapono got $24 mil for 4 years from the Raptors, and Matt Carroll got $27 mil for 6 years to resign with the Bobcats (not actually a use of their mid-level exception since they have cap space, but about the same $$$ amount). At least the Kapono signing makes some sense. The Raptors needed a SF to replace Mo Pete, and they needed a perimeter shooter. Hence, Kapono makes sense, and they did only sign him for 4 years, which isn't too bad. That said, Kapono wasn't ever even a decent player until last year, and he's not gonna give you anything beyond being a shooter. $6 mil a year is a bit steep for a guy as one-dimensional as he is. The Carroll signing makes no sense to me at all. I realize shooters are in demand, had done basically nothing before coming out as a shooting specialist last year for the Bobcats. Not only that, but they just traded for Jason Richardson who is going to take most of the minutes at SG. Carroll is a terrible defender, a one-dimensional offensive player, and not a position of need. You're giving this guy nearly $5 mil a year for 6 years? This is a deal that will probably look really ugly down the road.
He Gets It From His Dad
I'm a big fan of the Lakers resigning Luke Walton. $5 mil a year for a guy as versatile and effective as Walton is practically a steal. The length of the deal (6 years) is cause for concern, but I don't even think Walton will fall off that much as he ages. His game is based around fundamentals and passing, not athleticism, which is a good indicator that his performance won't drop that much as he enters his 30s. He's great in the triangle and a perfect complement for a guy like Kobe. He's certainly not the answer to all their problems, but he's about as good a role player as you're going to find. I really like this signing, it makes a lot of sense to me. Now if only the Lakers could avoid picking up huge contracts on guys like Vlad and Kwame, then we'd be getting somewhere.
Phoenix Bound
The Suns made quite possibly the best free agent signing of the offseason by getting Grant Hill to ink to a 2-year deal at practically no cost using their bi-annual exception. Before signing the deal, the Suns consulted with Hill, his agent, and his left ankle, which says that it promises it will be good this time around and stop screwing with Grant's career. Specifics of the contract are 2 years, $3.8 million, and an unlimited supply of ankle braces and asprin.
The Spurs Are Smarter Than Everyone Else...Again
As if it weren't enough that the reigning champs have the best coach in the business, the best power forward of all time, and the best international scouts (can anybody else match finds like Parker, Ginobili, Oberto, and soon-to-be Luis Scola?), they also have the league's smartest approach to free agents. See, this is a novel idea. They actually pay players what they're worth. Funny, you'd think that might catch on. Another thing that the Spurs do is that they don't sign you to a long term deal unless you're a star (i.e. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili). The result of this is that the Spurs very rarely get caught with terrible contracts, cause if someone isn't performing, they let him walk. It's amazing to me that teams don't learn from their example and continue to sign role players to huge deals. By resigning Fabricio Oberto, Matt Bonner, and Jacque Vaughn all to short, decently priced deals, the Spurs have kept their whole championship team together and put themselves in great position for next year. Keep in mind that this Spurs team is as good as it is, and they still have 2 of the top post players in Europe (Scola and Tiago Splitter) who can come over in future years. There's not a better managed team in professional sports than the Spurs.
Start stockpiling provisions, the apocalypse is coming. The Hawks actually made the right move in this draft by taking the best player on the board and the best point guard on the board. The Hawks now have a scary core group of Law, Johnson, M. Williams, Childress, Smith, Horford, S. Williams, and Pachulia that could contend in the east for the next decade. Of course, this is the Hawks, and Billy Knight is still in charge, so that probably won't happen, but it's a very promising young group.
Boston Celtics - Thumbs Up
Picks - Gabe Pruitt (32), Glen Davis (35)
Well, it's hard to argue with basically trading the #5 pick for Ray Allen. Regardless of what happens with Allen's foot surgery and how his game will hold up with age, that's an incredibly cheap price for a guy with his talent. Their two draft picks, Pruitt and Davis, were both great values who went about 10 picks later than they should have. Pruitt should immediately help as a point guard with a jumpshot, and Davis was a great value who could turn out to be a star if he keeps his weight down. Few players in the draft were as adept post scorers as Davis; he's reminiscent of Zach Randolph without the off-the-court problems.
Charlotte Bobcats - On The Fence
Picks - Jared Dudley (22), Jermareo Davidson (36)
I was a huge fan of the Dudley pick when it happened, but I don't like it as much after the trade. Charlotte desperately needs more post players, especially with Okafor and May's health issues. Once they traded Wright, they didn't have that help coming in. I think they probably would've been better off with Tiago Splitter or Josh McRoberts there. I liked the trade, and there is the possibility that they could pick up another post in free agency, but that's a bit of a risk, as there aren't many good low post guys out there (Milicic and Varejao are really the headliners). Still, they did some good things and I like the way the franchise is heading in general.
I hate the Noah pick, absolutely hate it. He's an inferior player to Tyrus Thomas and Ben Wallace in almost every way. The Bulls are a legitimate post scorer away from being a championship contender, and they had Spencer Hawes on the board. Not only did they pass on Hawes, but they also didn't make a move on Zach Randolph. I still think they should pursue a deal for Jermaine O'Neal (Thomas, Noah, Thabo Sefolosha and sign & trade P.J. Brown), but they don't seem interested in that either. For a team so close to contending, the Bulls seem very hesitant to make an aggressive move, and that would scare me if I were a Bulls fan.
We've known for a while that Stuckey was their man, but I think they missed an opportunity when Nick Young fell to them. Stuckey is kind of a poor man's Randy Foye, and should be a decent combo guard in the league. However, Young has all-star level talent on the same level as Corey Brewer. Affalo is a Detroit-type player, but they don't really have a need at SG after taking Stuckey, and they had Marcus Williams, Glen Davis and Josh McRobert all available, who are better talents and need positions.
Indiana Pacers - ???
Picks - Stanko Barac (39)
I have no opinion. He's a face-the-basket 7-footer, and that rarely works out, but whatever.
Miami Heat - Thumbs Down
Picks - Daequan Cook (21)
Memo to Pat Riley: your team is aging quickly and you need to win now. Of all the gaps the Heat desperately need to fill, I don't think "inexperienced shooting guard with attitude problems" was one of them. If the Heat really wanted a shooter, Morris Almond was a much better pick there. Really, anyone was a better pick there. Kudos for bluffing Philly into giving up a second rounder to switch spots with you, but Cook is a terrible pick.
Milwaukee Bucks - On The Fence
Picks - Yi Jianlian (6), Ramon Sessions (56)
The decision on the Bucks' draft will be made sometime in the next few days as the Yi situation is fleshed out. If it turns out Yi isn't so averse to going to Milwaukee or if the Bucks trade him (Golden State is the likely candidate), then taking a chance on the best available talent was worth it. If not and Yi either doesn't show up or skulks through the season, then the Bucks made a terrible mistake. Time will tell on this one. Sessions was a great pick up that late though. He was a guy who people were talking about as a possible low first rounder after he had some impressive camps. Landing him at 56 was a great pick for the Bucks at a need position.
New Jersey Nets - Thumbs Up
Picks - Sean Williams (17)
I've wavered on this quite a bit, but in the end I think it was the right pick for the Nets. This is a franchise in limbo, and they need something big to happen. If Williams is able to display the kind of play that he showed at the beginning of the season for Boston College, this pick is a steal. It's a huge risk, but it's obvious that the Nets really thought this one out.
New York Knicks - Thumbs Down
Picks - Wilson Chandler (23), Demetris Nichols (53)
What will it take to get Isaiah Thomas fired? Check my last post if you want a detailed explanation of why the Zach Randolph trade was terrible for New York. Outside of that disaster, the Knicks reached on Wilson Chandler after they made a promise to him, they could've gotten him 10 picks later. I don't care if Isaiah knows talent, he's a crappy executive in every other facet.
Orlando Magic - Who Cares
Picks - Milovan Rakovic (60)
...Moving on.
Philadelphia 76ers - Thumbs Up
Picks - Thaddeus Young (12), Jason Smith (20), Derrick Byars (42), Herbert Hill (55)
I love almost everything about the Sixers' draft. Smith is a great pick for their PF need, Byars was an amazing value at 42, as was Hill at 55. However, I don't particularly like Young at 12, since I think Thornton and Wright were were better picks there. Also, they basically traded their 30th pick for the 42nd pick (cash considerations always bug me). All in all though, they had a very solid draft.
Toronto Raptors - Again, I Don't Care
Picks - Giorgos Printezis (58)
Darn this European influx. Again, I know nothing about this guy.
Washington Wizards - Thumbs Up
Picks - Nick Young (16), Dominic McGuire (47)
The Wizards got two steals where they were drafting. Young is a stud player who could've gone as high as #8 to Charlotte. McGuire is a great athlete who is a strong defender. For a pick that late, he's a great value.
Well, that's it for NBA stuff for a while. I'll post some on various deals that may happen in the offseason, but probably no more large NBA posts until I preview the next season.
PG - Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling SG - Keith Bogans, J.J. Redick SF - Hedo Turkoglu, Trevor Ariza, Pat Garrity PF - Dwight Howard, James Augustine C - Tony Battie
Picks
2 - 14 (44 overall) 2 - 24 (54 overall)
The magic are one of my favorite young teams in the league. They really bombed the T-Mac era, but have rapidly rebuilt into one of the most promising young units in the east. Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo are a solid point guard combo, and Dwight Howard is the best young post player in the league (in addition to being able to slap a sticker 12 and a half feet up a backboard). So, there are two areas of concern this offseason. The first is resigning Darko Milicic. Milicic will always be the Bowie to Carmelo Anthony's Jordan, but he's only 22 and has shown a lot of promise since he left Detroit. If Milicic resigns for somewhere around his current value of $7 mil a year, then the Magic will have plenty of cap space to fix their other problem, which is finding a decent player on the wing. The obvious answers here are Rashard Lewis or Gerald Wallace. Orlando could offer a deal starting somewhere in the neighborhood of $14 mil a year, or alternatively could pursue a sign & trade where they give up the expiring contracts of Pat Garrity and Keyon Dooling, plus maybe a future draft pick in order to get one of those guys. Either way, they don't have the assets to move into the draft, and they really need to get one of those guys to make use of all this cap space that they have. As for their pick, I like D.J. Strawberry in the second round. He's a great athlete and defender, I think people are really sleeping on him.
What They Should Do: Make a run at Lewis. He's exactly the kind of guy they need, a shooter who can open things up inside. Wallace is the secondary option because he doesn't fit as well with the team, but they've got to get one of these two guys if they want to be a playoff team next year. On another note, I hear that Atlanta is offering their 11th pick to Seattle for Luke Ridnour. Maybe Orlando can beat that by offering Nelson and get themselves a lottery pick.
What They Will Do: What else can they do?
Philadelphia 76ers
Roster For 07-08
PG - Andre Miller, Kevin Ollie, Louis Williams SG - Andre Iguadola, Rodney Carney, Willie Green SF - Kyle Korver, Bobby Jones PF - Shavlik Randolph C - Samuel Dalembert, Steven Hunter
The rest of the league should be scared stiff of this team. They're a year away from being really good if they play their cards right. They need help in the frontcourt and another dynamic wing player, but this is a team that has a solid core and will shave huge amounts off their cap after next year. They'll be nearly $20 million under the cap in an offseason that could include free agents like Elton Brand, Jermaine O'Neal, Gilbert Arenas, Shawn Marion, and Corey Maggette. So, what do they do this season? I've heard a lot of talk about them trading up, but that doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Unless they can get the #3 pick and snag Al Horford (unlikely), they're just as well off waiting and grabbing Al Thornton with the 12th pick. Later on in the first round, there are a lot of great value picks at PF, like Glen Davis, Josh McRoberts, Sean Williams, and Tiago Splitter. Expect them to go international with at least 1, maybe 2 of the picks if they keep them all, so they can store the guys overseas and let them develop. This is the new thing in the NBA since the Spurs started doing it, and the Sixers probably don't want 4 draft picks going on their cap this year.
What They Should Do: Draft Thornton at 12, then aim for Splitter or Davis at 21. Splitter is a great fit because they can afford to wait till next year with him, and he's a great talent. Look to get Petteri Koponen with either the 30th or the 38th pick. Scouts rave about him, and he'll develop in Europe for a few years. I also really like Stephane Lasme for this team, he's a great energy guy at PF.
What They Will Do: They'll probably try to trade up and draft Yi. Sigh.
ut the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.
gue, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.
ion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
is only 21 and would be a senior in college this year without early entry. He's really turnover prone and doesn't shoot well from the line, and he's still a dominant player. The turnovers are a common problem with young players, and he showed some improvement from the charity stripe in the preseason. He's still very raw on the offensive end, but he's a solid offensive player because of his incredible physical gifts. He's already an elite rebounder and very good shotblocker, once he polishes up his offensive game, watch out. 
prised to see Orlando play a good deal of zone this year where Lewis can be a decent asset due to his length.
great ballhandler, so he can't just be a good shooter, he has to be a great shooter. It could be nothing, and he could end up shooting fine this season, but it was pretty shocking to watch J.J. front rim jumper after jumper.
On the surface, this deal has a lot of logical things going for it. Grant Hill is headed out of town, and the Magic desperately need wing help. In addition, they've got to extend Dwight Howard next year, so this is the last real chance they get to play the free agent market for a while. Lewis is a versatile scorer, and his perimeter shooting should help open things up for Howard (seen here defending his future teammate). However, the problem is that Orlando is paying Lewis superstar money, and he isn't a superstar. He's a very good player, but he's not going to be the star on a championship team. Now, the Magic might be able to work this out in the end because they have Howard there, but as a general principle, it's a bad idea to pay franchise money to a guy who isn't a franchise player (as Indiana and Boston have found out with O'Neal and Pierce). While a guy like Duncan is worth it, a second tier star like Lewis is going to end up crippling your cap space with a contract like that, and you eventually won't be able to acquire anymore pieces to flesh out your team. Now, if Howard develops into the next Shaq over the next few years and Orlando ends up getting a title out of this pair, then you can throw this out the window. More likely situation? The Magic get to the point where they can't quite make it over the hump, but their lack of cap space around their two stars prevents them from improving. I love Lewis as a fit for the Magic, but I wouldn't have maxed him out in order to get him.
Apparently, the thing to do at the moment is to sign one-dimensional shooters who have had one good year to the full mid-level exception. Jason Kapono got $24 mil for 4 years from the Raptors, and Matt Carroll got $27 mil for 6 years to resign with the Bobcats (not actually a use of their mid-level exception since they have cap space, but about the same $$$ amount). At least the Kapono signing makes
some sense. The Raptors needed a SF to replace Mo Pete, and they needed a perimeter shooter. Hence, Kapono makes sense, and they did only sign him for 4 years, which isn't too bad. That said, Kapono wasn't ever even a decent player until last year, and he's not gonna give you anything beyond being a shooter. $6 mil a year is a bit steep for a guy as one-dimensional as he is. The Carroll signing makes no sense to me at all. I realize shooters are in demand, had done basically nothing before coming out as a shooting specialist last year for the Bobcats. Not only that, but they just traded for Jason Richardson who is going to take most of the minutes at SG. Carroll is a terrible defender, a one-dimensional offensive player, and not a position of need. You're giving this guy nearly $5 mil a year for 6 years? This is a deal that will probably look really ugly down the road.
as Walton is practically a steal. The length of the deal (6 years) is cause for concern, but I don't even think Walton will fall off that much as he ages. His game is based around fundamentals and passing, not athleticism, which is a good indicator that his performance won't drop that much as he enters his 30s. He's great in the triangle and a perfect complement for a guy like Kobe. He's certainly not the answer to all their problems, but he's about as good a role player as you're going to find. I really like this signing, it makes a lot of sense to me.
Scola?), they also have the league's smartest approach to free agents. See, this is a novel idea. They actually pay players what they're worth. Funny, you'd think that might catch on. Another thing that the Spurs do is that they don't sign you to a long term deal unless you're a star (i.e. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili). The result of this is that the
Spurs very rarely get caught with terrible contracts, cause if someone isn't performing, they let him walk. It's amazing to me that teams don't learn from their example and continue to sign role players to huge deals. By resigning Fabricio Oberto, Matt Bonner, and Jacque Vaughn all to short, decently priced deals, the Spurs have kept their whole championship team together and put themselves in great position for next year. Keep in mind that this Spurs team is as good as it is, and they still have 2 of the top post players in Europe (Scola and Tiago Splitter) who can come over in future years. There's not a better managed team in professional sports than the Spurs.
