You know, I’ve tried to write this post like 6 times, and every time I just stall at the beginning and give it up. Maybe I’ll actually get it written this time.

Anyway, we’ve hit the half way point of the NBA season. It’s time to look back at what we’ve learned, as well as look forward to what we can expect from the rest of the season. With that in mind, lets take a look at some of the teams that I really missed on.

Memphis Grizzlies
Wow, did I miss on these guys or what? Strangely enough, a lot of what I thought would happen with them did happen. Rudy #### really blossomed in his second year, becoming a potent scorer, J.C. Navarro has been one of the best rookies in the league and has had some truly spectacular shooting performances, and Mike Conley has played very well since returning from injury. They’re actually a decent offensive team. However, where I was wrong was thinking that they would be an improved defensive team. #### hasn’t been much of a defender, even though he has all the tools for it, Kyle Lowry isn’t having nearly as much impact as last year, and most importantly, Darko has been absolutely terrible. One reason I liked them so much was because an even slightly improved Darko would give them a much-needed shot-blocking presence in the back of their defense. Instead, Darko has, amazingly, been much, much worse than he was in Orlando last year. Of course, I also though 42 or 43 wins would get you into the playoffs out West, and that doesn’t appear to be the case at this point. Oh well, they’ll at least put themselves in good position to get Mike Beasley or DeAndre Jordan in the draft.

Chicago Bulls
I, like everyone else, have been pretty stunned by the poor performance of the Bulls. Now, to some extent we probably should’ve been able to see this coming. All the talk about a Kobe trade obviously had an effect on the young guys on this team. It was also painfully obvious that Ben Wallace was declining rapidly as a player. However, there’s no way that anyone could’ve predicted the inexplicably bad play of the Bulls’ young core players. To have one young guy regress when he should be improving is one thing, but for five guys under the age of 27? It’s absolutely incredible. Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon and Thomas are all having worse seasons than last year. We’re not just talking about slightly worse either, we’re talking about them being significantly less productive. 7 of the top 8 guys on the team (with Joe Smith as the exception) are shooting worse than they were last season. It’s absolutely mind-blowing how the young Bulls have regressed. I think we’re going to see the Bulls in the playoffs at the end of this season 1) because they’re in the East, and as bad as they’ve been they’re only a game behind the Pacers for the last playoff spot right now, but also because 2) it’s absolutely unheard of for a team full of young players to take a huge step backwards like this, and I think they’ll bounce back some and be respectable by season’s end.

Portland Trailblazers
I actually kind of thought Portland would be better than most people thought they would, but I never thought they’d have this kind of success. The biggest shocker to me has been the extraordinary play of Brandon Roy. I’ll be honest, I thought Roy was a really good player when Portland drafted him, and I thought he’d make a few All-Star teams and be a really good player, but I never thought he’d be this good, this fast. He has become the unquestioned leader of the team that has the best chemistry in the league. He does all the little things and he’s a big-time clutch player, making big shots, big defensive stops and getting big rebounds. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player with a better hesitation move than Roy, he reminds me a bit of Nash in the way that he always looks like he’s completely under control. Of course, the other big reason for the Blazers’ success has been the brilliant coaching of Nate McMillan. This Blazers team has great chemistry, they run their offensive sets really well, and they use zone defenses as well as any team in the league. That’s great coaching, McMillan has got this young team executing and believing in themselves.

Those are the teams that have really surprised this year, but we’ve also learned a lot this season about the league’s elite teams. With that in mind, I’m taking another look at my list of potential contenders and cutting it down to size a bit.

My list from the preseason looked like this (in no particular order): Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Jazz, Celtics, Nuggets, Bulls, Suns

My list now (again, in no particular order): Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers

So, why did I drop the teams I did?

Bulls are obvious, I’m not going to go over them

Jazz
They can’t defend the post at all, and I can’t bring myself to pick them in a conference with Duncan, STAT, Yao, Dirk, and now Bynum. You have to defend the post, and they can’t.

Mavs
Gone unnoticed by basically everyone is the fact that the Mavs’ defense has not been good this year. This team was 2nd in the league on offense and 5th on defense last year, this year they’re 2nd on offense and 18th on defense. Add that to their playoff failures the last two years and this team screams “paper tiger” to me.

Suns
Hardest drop from the list for me. I love Nash and I think this team is tremendously talented. However, they’re a worse defensive team than last year, and they aren’t going to win a title that way. Amare continues to be a weakness defensively in the post, and Brian Skinner brings defense, but he doesn’t have any offensive skills. Kurt Thomas was so great because he could both guard bigs and step out and hit the mid-range jumper, Skinner can’t do that. I hate it, but bad defensive teams don’t win titles.

You’ll notice a common theme on why I didn’t pick any of the previous teams. To put the importance of defense in perspective, there have only been 2 teams in the modern era who have won a title without a top 10 defense, and they were the ‘95 Rockets and the ’01 Lakers (who don’t even really count because they played great defense the year before and the year after and during the playoffs with essentially the same team, and obviously didn’t care about the regular season this year). Moral of the story is that defense is really important.

You may also be wondering why the Hornets didn’t make the list. Simply put, they don’t have a bench. I would take their starting five against any other starting unit in the league, but they don’t have the depth or the experience to make a deep run, especially not if anyone (read: Peja) gets hurt. I love the team, I love Chris Paul, they’re a great story, but I don’t think this is their year.

So, why the teams that I did pick?

I’m not going over the Spurs and Celtics, you all know why they’re on that list.

Nuggets
They have two possible starters who are out indefinitely with injury (Nene and Chucky Atkins), Carmelo’s production and efficiency is down significantly from his past two seasons, and they have a serious lack of three-point shooting. Still, they’re 25-16 and first in their division. The reason is because Allen Iverson has fully embraced being a co-star with Melo and is having the most efficient season of his career, and because Marcus Camby takes this team from being a very bad defensive team to being a very good defensive team. If Atkins comes back healthy or they can add one more shooter through a trade, I think this becomes a very dangerous offensive team as well as a good defensive team, and that makes them a contender.

Rockets
They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system. As I wrote back when I blogged the season-opener between LA and Houston, McGrady dominating the ball so much absolutely kills this offense, and they often look significantly better without him on the court. However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing.

Pistons
I left them off in the preseason because I thought they were missing the tough, killer-instinct, underdog mentality that fueled their last title run. What I didn’t count on was the Celtics getting off to a historical start and really lighting a fire under the Pistons to prove that they were the best team in the East. I honestly think that Boston’s great start had a positive impact on the Pistons, that it lit a fire under them that they didn’t have last year when LeBron trampled all over them in the playoffs. They’re also getting fantastic bench production and they execute and exploit weak defenders as well as any team in the league. I still don’t think they could beat the Spurs, but I think they could beat another team from the West if San Antonio doesn’t make the finals

Lakers
This one comes with a caveat. I reserve the right to dismiss this if the post-injury Bynum we get isn’t the same as pre-injury Bynum. LA has been a MUCH better defensive team this year because Bynum has been on the floor more, has become far less foul-prone, and has rebounded a lot better than last year. The bench and the contributions of Derek Fisher have been great, but Bynum is the key. He isn’t an elite player yet by any means, but he has great hands and finishes well on offense, and he improves their defense exponentially. If he comes back playing as well as early on this season, the Lakers are a long-shot contender.

Well, this post has run on long enough, and I’m sure you’re all tired of my wordiness. The last thing I’ll leave you with is my MVP pick for the first half of the season.

MVP: LeBron James
 With all due respect to Kevin Garnett’s fantastic work in Boston and Kobe’s exceptional play and leadership (who ‘da thunk it?), this isn’t even close. Yes, I know about Boston’s 33-7 record and how KG has gotten everyone playing great defense. I repeat, the MVP race is NOT EVEN CLOSE. Lebron uses more of his team’s possessions than anyone outside of DWade, and his offensive rating this year is 12 points higher than Flash! He averages 30-8-7 with 2 steals and a block, and he shoots almost 50%. Lebron’s AST% (an estimate of the percentage of his teammates’ field goals his assists while on the court) is 6th in the league. 6th! He’s one percentage point behind Deron Williams! It’s not quite MJ numbers that we’re talking about here, but we’re getting close. LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs. He’s the MVP, Period.

Alright, that’s it for me, I finally got this post cranked out. I’ll be sharing my opinions on the All-Star team next post, which should be pretty soon, so keep a look out for that.

Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Memphis Grizzlies

Coach: Marc Iavaroni
2006-2007 Record: 22-60
06-07 Expected Record: 26-56
Offensive Rating: 106.8 (12th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 112.4 (30th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 50.4% (9th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 93.6 (7th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Gasol is an underrated player in my opinion. He's not a world beater, but he's a solid 20-10 guy who shoots a good percentage, is a solid rebounder, passes very well for a big man, and blocks shots without fouling. There are precious few big men in the league that you can say all that about.

Mike Miller may not play a lot of defense, but man can he shoot. He won't get you a lot in other categories, but the guy can fill it up in a hurry.

Warrick and #### are both highly athletic wings who have wiry frames and the ability to explode to the rim. Warrick started and ended last season extremely well, but had a lot of inconsistent outings. He's an effective scorer, but needs to become a better rebounder and cut down on his turnovers. #### had a bit of a rough rookie year, but he got a lot of burn and that experience should help him. He scored in double figures in 25 of 28 games at the end of last year. He also had some very good defensive games, and has the kind of length, athleticism, and skills that could make him an excellent defender. Both these guys are young and inconsistent, but they've got a ton of talent.

I loved the Navarro signing. He's one of the premier European players, and he's an outstanding shooter. With he and Miller on the floor, it becomes almost impossible to send someone down to double on Pau. In addition, he's a friend of Pau's from playing together on the Spanish national team, and should work well with the Griz's top player.

The point guard situation is going to be interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if the veteran Stoudamire starts games early in the season, but I would be shocked if Lowry or Conley isn't the starter by season's end. Lowry didn't play a lot of games last year, but he played very well in the games he did play, and he played well this summer. He's a very good defensive player and is a really gritty performer. Conley is the point guard of the future, and even though young point guards don't have a great track record, Conley is the kind of special talent that could prove the exception to the rule. He's an absolutely freakish athlete, who is extremely strong for his size and has a blindingly quick first step. His ability to finish around the rim reminds me of Tony Parker, he can hit the floater and he's great at finishing through contact and avoiding the block. He's also an exceptional ballhandler and has a great passing eye. A lot of the time when I watched him last year, I was reminded of Steve Nash in the way that Conley, like Nash, would get past his man and then slow up and let passing lanes develop. If he develops a jumpshot, watch out.

X-Factor: Darko Milicic - Anyone who tells you they know what's coming with Darko is lying. His talent is undeniable, but he's not a real strong rebounder and he's inconsistent on the offensive end. On the other end though, Darko's best attribute is his shotblocking, where he is one of the best rim protectors in the league. This season really is a make or break one for Darko if he's ever going to realize his talent. He's entering his 5th season at 22, and he's on a young team running a high-paced, international style offense. If he can't succeed here, I'm giving up on him. If nothing else though, he's a serviceable big man simply for his ability to block shots.

Overview

The Grizzlies' season was basically ended last year when Pau missed the first 22 games of the year, and Memphis plummeted to 5-17. For the rest of the season you basically got the impression that they had phoned it in and were tanking their way to pole position in the race for Oden. They replaced Mike Fratello with interim coach Tony Barone and immediately ramped up their pace. The team was actually pretty good offensively, 12th in the league in offensive efficiency, but they were absolutely terrible on defense. That is kind of surprising because they were a very good defensive team in 05-06 and only really lost Shane Battier, Eddie Jones, and Lorenzen Wright. Now, losing Battier definitely hurts, and Jones and Wright are both decent defenders, but you definitely wouldn't think that those losses would take a team from 2nd to last in defense. I think that a lot of the change had to do with the injury to Gasol, the losing attitude, and the change in coaching philosophy.

Prediction

I really like the Grizzlies this year, I've liked them all summer as I've watched the moves they made. Their mix of rangy, athletic players, quick guards, and long-range shooters is perfect for their transition-style offense. The additions of Conley, Milicic, and Navarro along with the development of the young players and the addition of Iavoroni at coach should improve on what was already a good offense. Defensively, the shotblocking of Milicic and a full season of a competent coach should improve the defense to being solid. Gasol and Milicic are above average defenders, #### has the potential to be a great defender, and Conley and Lowry are both good defenders. The problem for the Griz will be that Swift, Warrick, ####, and Gasol are all thinner, wiry players who don't have a lot of bulk to work with in the post. As a result, they're not a very good rebounding team, and they're vulnerable to pounding the ball into the low post. I would expect to see a lot of zone play from the team this year as it suits the type of athletes they have. There's a lot to like about this team, and I think they make a huge jump back to playoff consideration this year.

7th in the West - Dark Horse

If you haven't heard about it yet, you should check out Darko Milicic's rant against the officials at the Eurobasket tournament. I will warn you though, it's pretty vulgar, so if you get offended easily, stay away. Really though, somebody needs to tell Darko to get a handle on his mouth. After previously calling now-teammate Pau Gasol soft, now he goes and says this. It's not like the reporters didn't give him chances to get out of what he said either, but he just pressed on and kept getting more and more obscene. Really, I'm looking forward to the Darko era in Memphis, there's no telling what might happen. He's come off as completely crazy this offseason, the kind of quotes you usually see from Ron Artest, but his reputation as a player is that he's soft. Are we going to see crazy Darko next year? Are we going to see the lazy Darko who didn't play in Detroit? Who knows. Can we arrange for Memphis to trade for Steven Jackson or Artest? The comedy potential of that would be off the scale.

Greg Oden is having exploratory surgery on his knee. Now, to be perfectly honest, this is probably nothing. It's not reconstructive surgery, and Oden will probably be good to go in camp. However, if you're a Blazer fan, especially a long-time fan who lived through Bill Walton and Sam Bowie, then you've got to be feeling nervous about Oden's various maladies this offseason.

This just in, NBA players are stupid. Seriously, Shawne Williams, what are you thinking? Been reading "Stephen Jackson's Book on How to Stay Out of Trouble", have you? Pro athletes disgust me sometimes.

Important free agents still out there: Chris Webber, Michael Pietrus, Anderson Varejao, Sasha Pavlovic, and Charlie Bell. I'm surprised Webber isn't signed yet, I was sure he would've picked what contender he wanted to play with and signed up quickly, but he's still out there. Still, you gotta think he'll be signing with Dallas eventually. He's not going to San Antonio or Phoenix, so the Mavs are his best chance of snagging a ring.

Game 3 of the WNBA Finals tonight. I know, you probably don't care, but I'll be watching to see if Diana Taurasi drops 30 on the league's best defensive team again.

For all you basketball statheads out there, I'll be making a post shortly on some of the lesser known statistical measures out there, so make sure to check back on that.

Switching gears, reports say that Kevin Everett is making much better progress in his recovery than originally expected, and doctors are optimistic that he will walk again. My prayers go out to him and his family, you hate to see that happen in a sporting event, and it's good to hear that his condition is improving.

I went into Monday Night trailing by 15 points and with Edge James as my only hope. He produced 17 points, and I squeaked out a win. Course, I wouldn't have needed that if I'd started Adrian Peterson and LaMont Jordan, 40 points on the bench kind of sucks.

Apparently, Romeo Crennel comes from the Charlie Weis school of quarterback management.

Again switching gears, Jerry Crasnick has a great article on my boy Troy Tulowitzki, who is putting together a very veteran-like rookie season for the Rockies. He trails Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins by just .001 in fielding percentage, but he's had 100 more chances than any other shortstop in the majors. Pretty impressive for a rookie. He's almost like the anti-Ryan Braun, who carries a big stick, but is the worst fielding regular in the league. The sheer gaudy offensive numbers will get Braun ROY, Tulo might be the more valuable rookie.

Anybody know what A-Rod is hitting so far in the month of August? That would be .533/.600/1.367, yeah, that's right, a 1.367 SLUGGING PERCENTAGE. That's just obscene. My friend asked me the other day if i thought A-Rod would hit 60 HRs, and I said "no way". After looking at the numbers, I'm not so sure. 8 HRs in 20 games? He very well might with the way he's hitting. What was a close MVP race with Ordonez has turned into a runaway.

In the NL MVP race, much as I'd like to say my man Prince Fielder should win it with a spectacular second year, but I can't really endorse that even if the Brew Crew make the playoffs. The simple fact is that Ben Sheets has been every bit as important to that team as Prince has. Chase Utley would probably be the choice if he hadn't missed a good chunk of time with injury, but alas, he did. To me, it comes down to Matt Holliday and David Wright. Both have very similar offensive profiles, and it'll probably come down to team performance. If the Rockies pull off an improbable comeback and make the playoffs, Holliday has to be the choice, but otherwise I think the trophy goes to Wright.

If you haven't seen him yet this year, you should try to catch the late innings of a Cubs game to see Carlos Marmol pitch. He throws high heat, and his slider really breaks dramatically. I definitely don't consider myself an expert on pitchers, and often I can't even tell a pitch is breaking until I see the slow-mo replay, but Marmol's ball really moves. He's fun to watch.

Well, that's all for now folks. I'll leave you with this trivia question. Who holds the NBA record for most blocked shots by a rookie?

The long-awaited draft is over, so now its time to take a look at the results. It was actually a rather subdued draft until we got to the 18th pick or so, with the only real surprise being the Ray Allen trade. After that, things started going all kinds of crazy as Portland began to wheel and deal. Anyway, here's my team-by-team analysis of the draft. It's not grades, cause I don't like grades (btw, if we were to give teams a GPA based on their draft grades over time, what would Atlanta's be? 1.5? 2?). I'm going to give either a thumbs up, thumbs down, or on the fence for each team. So, starting with the Western Conference...

Dallas Mavericks - Thumbs Down

Picks - Nick Fazekas (34), Renaldas Seibutis (50), Milovan Rakovic (60)

Now, I understand that Dallas didn't have a lot to work with here, but they didn't exactly make the most of it. I'll give them the last two, cause there's not that much talent that late, but they took Fazekas, who is quite possibly the worst athlete in the draft, in front of Glen Davis and Josh McRoberts, both much better talents. I don't see Fazekas being any kind of player in the NBA, he's just too slow, and slow big guys whose trademark is their shooting don't have a great track record.

Denver Nuggets - N/A

Picks - ...

Well, that was easy

Golden State Warriors - Thumbs Up

Picks - Brandan Wright (8), Marco Belinelli (18), Stephane Lasme (46)

Big thumbs up to the Warriors, who had my second favorite draft (behind Portland's masterpiece). Not only did they manage to grab some fantastic talent, but they got rid of Jason Richardson's contract too. I questioned their selection of Bellinelli instead of Jason Smith, but it makes sense with the acquisition of Wright. Take note that there's still a possibility that Yi will end up here for a package including Wright, though Milwaukee looks like they want to keep him. Wright is a perfect player for them. He has very little range to his game, but he's money near the hoop and he's a very good shot-blocker. At worst, he's a much more talented and athletic version of Andris Biedrins. Bellinelli is a dynamic 2-guard who has great range and can slash, but he's streaky (which should mean he fits in perfectly here). Lasme was one of my favorite second round guys, and I can see him contributing immediately as an energy/defense guy for the Warriors. Very good draft.

Houston Rockets - Thumbs Down

Picks - Aaron Brooks (26), Carl Landry (31), Brad Newley (54)

I really don't get their draft. They had McRoberts and Davis staring them in the face at both 26 and 31, and they passed them both times for inferior players. Brooks was a solid sleeper, but that's only a good pick if you don't reach for it, and they reached big-time for him. What's more puzzling is that they didn't even reach for a need, they've already got Mike James and Rafer Alston at the point and a gaping hole at PF. Landry is a gritty player, but he's undersized and can't rebound. McRoberts would've been perfect here, I'm really puzzled that they passed on him.

L.A. Clippers - Thumbs Up

Picks - Al Thornton (14), Jared Jordan (45)

The Clippers basically just sat back and took the best value that was available, and they ended up with 2 really good players who are both good fits. Thornton allows them to put the disgruntled Corey Maggette on the trading block. He's a terrific athlete, and I've been saying all along he's the second coming of Shawn Marion. He was easily the best value available for them. Jordan is a pure point who should be able to back up Sam Cassell right away. His ceiling as a player isn't very high, but he's a smart guy who should be able to carve out a niche in the league. I would've gone with Taurean Green there, but I can't fault them for taking Jordan.

L.A. Lakers - Thumbs Down

Picks - Javaris Crittenton (19), Sun Yue (40), Marc Gasol (48)

This rating is contingent on them keeping Kobe Bryant, which they have repeatedly said that they want to do. Were the Lakers set on building for the future, I would be ok with the Crittenton pick. He's the ultimate high-reward point guard prospect, with a good shooting touch, suberb athleticism, and a 6'5 frame. However, he's at least 2 years away from being able to run a team, and I doubt he'll contribute much next year. I'm not sold on Yue. From what I saw of him, he's not a great athlete and he didn't really impress me that much. They did get a steal in Gasol, who most mocks had up at the top of the second round.

Memphis Grizzlies - Thumbs Up

Picks - Mike Conley (4)

Not much to say about this. They took Conley, who was the best point guard in the draft and, in my opinion, the best player on the board at #4. He got better and better as the year went on last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a big contributor this year for Memphis. He's impossibly quick and has tremendous floor vision. Absolutely the right pick for the Griz.

Minnesota Timberwolves - On The Fence

Picks - Corey Brewer (7), Chris Richard (41)

As far as their draft goes, I think they made the right moves. Brewer was the obvious pick when he fell into their laps at #7, and Richard is a great value in the second round, he would be a first rounder if he'd played anywhere but Florida. However, I can't help but feel like the Timberwolves wasted their best chance to rebuild by not getting a KG deal done. They were adamant about what they wanted in return for him, and as a result of that they miss the chance to grab draft picks in the deepest draft in recent memory. I'm fine with the picks they made, but what they didn't do with KG devalues this for me.

New Orleans Hornets - Thumbs Up

Picks - Julian Wright (13), Adam Haluska (43)

They get a thumbs up because Wright at #13 is an absolute steal. He could've easily gone 6 picks higher than that. He doesn't fit a need quite as well as Nick Young would've, but there's no question that he was the best talent left on the board. On potential alone, he's probably the 3rd best guy in the draft. He had games at Kansas where he absolutely destroyed the opposing team. If the Hornets can get some consistency out of him, this is a great pick. Haluska was a surprise, as he wasn't really on anyone's radar. Really though, once you get into the last 20 picks, everything is a stretch.

Phoenix Suns - Thumbs Down

Picks - Alando Tucker (29), D. J. Strawberry (59)

Is there anything more depressing than seeing your team trade away a first round pick for cash? Yeah, the Suns have done that 4 straight times. Not only that, but they then took Tucker at 29, who is a PF in a SF's body. Oh yeah, he can't really shoot either. They had McRoberts and Gabe Pruitt sitting there at 29, and they took Alando Tucker instead. Ugh. The Suns have really made some disappointing moves in the last 2-3 years, and it's a shame cause I think their window for winning is closing. They had the chance here to either take players or trade for players who could bolster a championship level team, and they blew it. I do like the D.J. Strawberry pick at 59 though. He'll carve out a spot in the league as a lock-down defender.

Portland Trail Blazers - Thumbs Way Up

Picks - Greg Oden (1), Rudy Fernandez (24), Petteri Koponen (30), Josh McRoberts (37), Taurean Green (52)

Not only did the Blazers make an absolute killing with their picks but they also managed to bring another piece over in the Zach Randolph trade, Channing Frye. This is the best draft I've ever seen a team have. They drafted a franchise center in Oden, they got rid of head-case Randolph and his monster contract and brought in another good young big in Frye, they drafted two lottery-level talents in Fernandez and Koponen who will continue to mature overseas (something they had to do with all the guys they were bringing in with this draft), they got the steal of the draft in McRoberts at 37 (who is a perfect complementary post guy and also a good friend of Oden's), and they picked up Green about 20 spots later than most people had him ranked. That, my friends, is one heck of a draft. Here's the really scary thing about this team. By trading Randolph's contract for Francis's shorter deal, the Blazers made sure that they will be well under the cap in 2 years when guys like Aldridge and Roy start signing extensions. They've done so well building with young talent, and it's entirely possible that they will be able to keep all of it. Can anybody in the league match the young talent on their frontline with Oden, Aldridge, Frye, and McRoberts? This team is ridiculously scary.

Sacramento Kings - Thumbs Down

Picks - Spencer Hawes (10)

It's not that I don't think Hawes is a bad player. He's probably more-or-less the next Brad Miller, and Miller has had a very solid career with a few All-Star games tossed in there. However, with all the rebuilding that Sacramento has to do, they needed a high-ceiling kind of guy, and Hawes isn't it. Julian Wright would've been the much better pick here.

San Antonio Spurs - Thumbs Up

Picks - Tiago Splitter (28), Marcus Williams (33), Giorgos Printezis (58)

It's just not fair sometimes. The best team in the league adds a lottery-level talent who will wait a year before coming over. Splitter was a perfect fit for them, and they'll be reaping the benefits in two years. Williams is a great prospect with a ton of potential, but he never put it together in college. I was a little surprised that they didn't go with Derrik Byars, but if anyone can get Williams to put things together, it's the Spurs.

Seattle Supersonics - Thumbs Up

Picks - Kevin Durant (2), Jeff Green (5)

Big props to Seattle for being gutsy with their moves. Trading Ray Allen wasn't even something I was thinking about, but it makes a lot of sense. The word from Seattle is that they want to try and resign Rashard Lewis and be able to throw Green, Durant, and Lewis out there all at once. It's a remarkable idea, and I think that they could pull it off. There are very few players in the league versatile and athletic enough to run the 2,3,and 4 spots, but these guys could do it. Can you imagine trying to match up with that? Anyway, even if they don't bring Lewis back, Green is a great compliment to Durant. Overlooked in the Allen for Green deal is that they also brought in Delonte West, who is a solid player and should be the starter at the point for them next year.

Utah Jazz - Thumbs Up

Picks - Morris Almond (25), Kyrylo Fesenko (38)

I have no opinion on Fesenko, but Almond was a great pick at 25. He was obviously the best talent left on the board, and he fills the Jazz's need for a perimeter shooter. Considering where they were picking, the Jazz did a solid job.

Just as a final note, is anyone else as excited as I am that Ray Allen and Allen Ray are on the same team? I've been waiting for this since I learned that Villanova was bringing in a freshman named Allen Ray. It's fate, it had to happen, the basketball gods brought it about.

All right, we're a third of the way through the league now, so I've got 4 days to cover 20 teams. I'm gonna have to kick it up a notch in order to finish this.

Indiana Pacers

Roster For 07-08

PG - Jamaal Tinsley, Orien Green
SG - Marquis Daniels
SF - Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy, Shawne Williams
PF - Jermaine O'Neal, Troy Murphy, Ike Diogu
C - Jeff Foster, David Harrison

Picks

None

Well, the Pacers have an amazing amount of frontcourt depth, and it's solid young depth. Granger, Williams, Diogu, and Harrison are all guys with a ton of potential. The problem is that they're saddled with a few too many bad contracts, and Jamaal Tinsley isn't the answer at the point. So, what is Indiana to do? THe first order of business has to be trading Jermaine O'Neal. He wants out, and as good as he is, he's not worth $20 mil a year on a team that isn't going anywhere. The best fits in a trade would be Chicago or LA if they keep Kobe around. The problem is that the Pacers are likely going to overvalue O'Neal and demand more in a trade than anyone is willing to give. L.A. could send a package of Andrew Bynum, Kwame Brown, Vlad Radmanovic, and the #19 pick in order to get O'Neal, which would pair Kobe with a legit low-post scorer and stud defender without losing much in the way of support players. Indiana gains a promising young center, cap relief when Brown comes off the cap, and the #19 pick, with which they can grab a guard. The Bulls could offer Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Sefolosha, Chris Duhon, the #9 pick, and a sign & trade of P.J. Brown. This is a much more attractive package for the Pacers, but I think the Bulls would have to think this one over. They wouldn't give up any of their principle core, and they'd bring in exactly the type of player that they need, an efficient low-post scorer who is also a brilliant defender. Between Ben Wallace and O'Neal, I don't know if anyone would ever score on this team.

What They Should Do: Pitch the trade to the Bulls and hope they bite. That package is almost a 100% return on O'Neal. If they don't go for that, try to make a trade with LA. The main thing is that they need to make a move before O'Neal goes Kobe on them and drops a fiery trade demand. The faster they can free their cap of his contract, the faster they can rebuild around their promising core of post players. If you have to take slightly less value than you'd like for O'Neal in order to get something for him, it's worth it. It's unlikely that they'll be able to do anything about the terrible contracts of Troy Murphy or Mike Dunleavy, so they need to clear O'Neal's contract off the cap. The other move they should try to make is to sign Steve Blake with their mid-level exception (note how I keep recommending this? True point guards are a good thing guys).

What They Will Do: They'll market O'Neal around, but then chicken out because they don't get exactly the package they want in return.

L.A. Clippers

Roster For 07-08

PG - Sam Cassell, Shaun Livingston
SG - Cuttino Mobley, Quinton Ross
SF - Corey Maggette, Tim Thomas
PF - Elton Brand, Paul Davis
C - Chris Kaman, Aaron Williams

Picks

1 - 14 (14 overall)
2 - 15 (45 overall)

Say what you want about Donald Sterling, but this Clippers team is a very smartly built one. Outside of Tim Thomas (who should never ever get anything more than a 1-year deal), most everyone has reasonable contracts. However, the Shaun Livingston injury really throws things into flux, since their point guard of the future will probably miss all of next year and will most likely never be the same player he was. The consensus among experts is that the Clippers have to take a point guard at 14, whether that be Acie Law (preferable) or Javaris Crittenton. They could also look for a backup point with their second round pick, where they might be able to grab a Taurean Green or Jared Jordan. As far as post players go, they could look at Sean Williams or Jason Smith in the first round, though 14 is a bit high for either of them so they would probably try to trade down. In the second round, Ali Traore, Stephen Lasme, or Alando Tucker would be good options.

What They Should Do: Take Law. He's one of my favorite players in this draft, and he's one of the most NBA-ready players out there. Traore put on a great show at the Orlando pre-draft, and might not be around at 45, but he'd be a great pick there. Lasme is another one of my favorite sleepers, and he'd make a very solid frontcourt reserve.

What They Will Do: I can't see them not taking Law. It's the obvious pick at 14 and fills a need.

L.A. Lakers

Roster For 07-08

PG - Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic
SG - Kobe Bryant, Maurice Evans
SF - Vladimir Radmanovic
PF - Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown, Brian Cook
C - Andrew Bynum

Picks

1 -19 (19 overall)
2 - 10 (40 overall)
2 - 18 (48 overall)

So, the million dollar question (or, twenty-million dollar question, as the case may be) is, what do the Lakers do with Kobe Bryant? He desperately wants out, but the terms he will leave on (an Eastern conference team who can be a contender) are almost impossible to fill. Chicago meets the criteria, but it makes not sense for the Bulls to blow up their young nucleus in order to aquire Bryant. It sucks for Bryant, and it sucks for Lakers fans who have grown tired of Mr. 81, but we might just all have to get used to the idea of Kobe staying in LA. The fact is, this team is almost completely devoid of young talent to build around. Bynum is a solid young player, but a lot of experts don't even predict him as an all-star. Farmar might end up being an average point guard, the kind of guy who can lead a team filled with better parts. Luke Walton and Ronny Turiaf (both up for extension this offseason) are role players, probably solid bench guys on a championship team. That's it. On the other hand, this team is not as far as they may seem from competing. The trade I outlined above with Indiana would give this team a starting lineup of Farmar, Bryant, Walton, Odom, and O'Neal, an elite player, an all-star, and 3 decent role players. That's not a bad team, especially if Odom were to stop sleepwalking through games. They don't really have another option, since they'd be getting 25 cents on the dollar by trading Kobe right now, they just don't have any leverage.

What They Should Do: Make the trade with Indiana and try as hard as humanly possible to patch things up with Kobe (bringing O'Neal in would probably go a long way towards helping that). That's a team that can contend, and at this point it just isn't worth trying to turn things around and rebuild. If they keep the pick, they should take Gabe Pruitt, who is a local product who helps with the gaping hole at point. In the second round, Taurean Green is a possibility if they don't go with a point in the first, and other guys to watch for are Trey Johnson, Rayshawn Terry, Chris Richard, and Ramon Sessions.

What They Will Do: They'll probably waver on Bryant for the entire offseason, miss their chance to make any move, end up with him sitting out of games, and trade him for almost no value at midseason. Gotta love the NBA.

Memphis Grizzlies

Roster For 07-08

PG - Damon Stoudamire, Kyle Lowry
SG - Dahntay Jones, Tarence Kinsey
SF - Mike Miller, Rudy ####
PF - Hakim Warrick, Brian Cardinal, Stromile Swift
C - Pau Gasol, Alexander Johnson

Picks

1 - 4 (4 overall)

I think the Grizzlies are much closer to contending than most people think. They could use more depth on the wing and a real shotblocking post, but the main concern has to be at point guard. Kyle Lowry is a decent player, and I loved watching him in college, but he's not an NBA starter. The Griz have 2 options at the 4th pick, Mike Conley or Corey Brewer. Brewer is an explosive player and a great prospect, but I think the pick here has to be Conley. Elite point guards don't fall in to your lap every day (ask Atlanta about that one), and make no mistake, Conley is an elite prospect. The comparisons he draws to Tony Parker are accurate as far as his blinding quickness and ability to finish at the rim, but Conley is a much better distrubutor than Parker was early in his career (and maybe even now). He's the rare college point guard who always looked like he was in complete control of the game (and as a freshman no less!). He combines the speed of Parker with Steve Nash's superb speed control (how many times at Ohio State did we see him blow past the first defender only to slow up and evaluate things once he was in the lane). Honestly, as I'm writing this I'm starting to think I might have said the wrong thing for Atlanta, Conley is just that good. Give him a few years under NBA coaches to hone his jumpshot, and he's an all-star.

What They Should Do: Take Conley. Point guard is the hardest position in the NBA to fill, you can always look to sign a wing player later. I cannot stress enough the importance of having a pure point, especially one who comes up in your system alongside your other young guys so they can develop a rapport.

What They Will Do: This being the NBA and all, they'll probably take Brandan Wright or Yi. If this weren't so true, it would be funny.