I've been following the Houston Rockets at a distance this whole season, and I was pretty disappointed in them up until recently. I even considered dropping them from my list of contenders at midseason because they just hadn't played well at all. In fact, here's what I said about them on January 25th, 3 games after McGrady came back:

"They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system...However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing."

You know, I think 16-1 since McGrady's return might qualify as taking off. So, what's changed in the last few weeks that has Houston playing so well? Like I did a while back with Portland, I'm going to take a look at the Rockets' streak both statistically and what I've seen when I watched them.

The first thing to note is the recent play of McGrady. I've remarked multiple times on how T-Mac's ball domination and constant isolation plays were killing the Rockets' offense. That's changed since McGrady came back from his injury. He's still scoring, but not as much, and he's taking less shots. The drastic difference though is seen in his passing ability, from 4.6 APG in November to 7 APG in January. McGrady's size gives him the ability to see and pass over basically any defender he's faced with, which is deadly in Rick Adelman's offense which features a lot of back-cuts. He's still a great option to have when the clock is running down and he still has those times when he gets hot and carries the team, but more and more he's fitting into the offense and getting his teammates easy looks.

The other big thing that's immediately noticeable is the increased production from the PF spot. Luis Scola has begun to start games and get more minutes and he's doing more with them. He moves so well without the ball and he's finally figuring out Adelman's offense, so he's getting himself easy shots and converting (leading to his 58.9% shooting this month). One of the most surprising developments in the league has been emergence of Carl Landry as a legitimate contributor on a playoff team. I panned the drafting of Landry at the time, but 'm eating my words now. He's ridiculously strong and has great hands, so he finishes almost everything he gets near the rim, and he's a pretty decent mid-range shooter. Most impressive might be the way he has quickly adjusted from being the primary option in college to moving off the ball and finding open space for easy shots. He and Scola both are very good with their spacing, and they're making teams pay for helping off them. What surprises me though is that the increased minutes have come at the expense of Chuck Hayes and the Rockets haven't suffered defensively or rebounding the ball. As a result, they've been a much-improved offensive team while maintaining their solid defense.

So, what do the stats from Houston's streak tell us? Well, most notably they're averaging almost 7 more points per 100 possessions, a huge jump from where they were from the rest of the season. Why are they so much better? Immediately what jumps out are the teams' assist numbers. The Rockets are averaging almost 5 more assists per 100 possessions, and they've assisted on 66% of their made FGs during the streak vs 57.7% for the rest of the year. All that extra ball movement and their turnovers are actually down, averaging 3 less TOs per 100 possessions. That ball movement results in the increased shooting percentages and better offensive efficiency that we see. It certainly looks as though the team is getting adjusted to Adelman's offense.

Defensively, I think Houston might be playing the best defense of any team in the league right now. I'm not sure how many people realize just how good this defense is because it doesn't jump out at you as you watch them. They don't block a ton of shots or force a lot of turnovers, and if you were just watching them play your team you'd probably think your guys just had a bad shooting night. However, if you pay attention to the Rockets, you'd notice that a lot of teams seem to have "bad shooting nights" against them. It's the thing that statistics finds almost impossible to quantify in individual players, the ability to play solid D and force tough shots. Houston has a few guys who are very good at making you take a tough shot over them (Battier, Hayes, Landry), but they also play fantastic help defense, rotating well in pick and roll situations and doing a good job of "helping the helper". Lastly, of course, there's Yao, who has the ability to block or alter shots without leaving his feet, meaning that he doesn't give up rebounding position to make your shot tougher. Put it all together and you've got a really good defensive team.

So what do things look like going forward for the Rockets? Well, first of all they play their next four games at home against Washington, Memphis, Denver and Indiana before they go play at Dallas, so there's a pretty good chance that they run this streak to 16 games. More importantly, this doesn't seem to me like a team that just got hot. This is a team that has genuinely made some huge progress during the season. I think McGrady came back from injury looking to integrate himself in the offense, and that Scola is getting better and better as he adjusts to the NBA game. Combine that with the emergence of Landry and the recent acquisition of Bobby Jackson (who played under Adelman in Sacramento) and you have a deep and talented team that is improving each game. The McGrady injury is looking more and more like a blessing in disguise. It got the rest of the team sharing the ball and moving it around well in order to score, and when McGrady came back he fit in and the role players were better for the experience. Also, that's 11 less games on McGrady's back this season, meaning he should be fresher come playoff time.

To me, few teams are exhibiting the kind of offense/defense balance that Houston is showing right now, and I think they're legitimately one of the top title threats. Obviously there's almost no predicting who comes out of the West this year. However, after seeing how they've begun to play offensively, I feel more comfortable now with saying the Rockets are contenders than I was at the beginning of the season.

I'm loving having cable TV in the dorm room. I've watched the Team USA vs. Canada game, part of the Argentina vs. Mexico game, and the Team USA vs. Brazil game. Sure, the games involving the US aren't exactly compelling basketball, but it's interesting to see players that I don't usually get a look at, and also to see how the US players fit into a system full of stars. Some things I saw...

- If I were George Karl, I'd be trying as hard as possible to duplicate the international style of play in Denver's offense, cause Melo is a monster in the international game. He plays well off the ball and has such a versatile game that he's almost impossible to stop. Just check out these lines from the 4 US games:

16 MIN - 17 PTs
17 MIN - 22 PTs
18 MIN - 25 PTs
17 MIN - 21 PTs

That's just obscene. Seriously, I realize the competition they're playing against, but that's nasty. With a full season to mesh together, I would be very scared of the Nuggets. They have 2 elite scorers and a great defensive center, they're absolutely a championship contender.

- Olu Famutimi was the only player on Team Canada who looked remotely like he belonged on the same floor as the US players. Sam Dalembert was a complete non-factor, but Famutimi (who is currently playing in the D-League) was a dynamic player

- I think Luis Scola is going to be a huge asset for the Rockets. He's a skilled player, but he's gritty and works hard on every play. From what I saw, he has a solid jumpshot and a good passing eye for a big man. He's also much more athletic than I thought, and rebounds very well.

- Nene looked terrible. Really, really terrible. He's gained weight since the end of the NBA season, and he missed easy opportunities on multiple occasions.

- I really like Tiago Splitter. After watching him against the US, I'm shocked that he wasn't picked sooner in the draft. He's very athletic and an excellent ball-handler for a guy his size. He took Carmelo Anthony to the hoop multiple times from the elbow area, and Melo isn't lacking in the quickness department. To think of him on the Spurs a year from now is scary.

- Kobe is stunningly good when he wants to be. We all know he's the best offensive player in the league, but when he wants to be, he's an incredible defender too. The fact of the matter is that if Kobe comes out and plays hard, the Lakers are a playoff team next year, if he sulks through the season, they'll be terrible.

- I love Jason Kidd.

Other thoughts on the NBA offseason:

- Other than practically giving away Luis Scola to a division rival, I really like the Spurs' offseason. The acquisition of Ime Udoka and the signing of 2005 first round pick Ian Mahinmi, in addition to resigning basically everyone makes them look like the favorites to repeat, as well as having very solid future prospects.

- Orlando signed Adonal Foyle to replace Darko, and he'll probably give them about the same contributions they got from Darko last year, but for way less money than they'd be paying Darko. They overpaid for Rashard, but they'll definitely be better this year.

- I still think that Phoenix should've gone for KG, but other than that they've had a very solid offseason. Grant Hill was a great pickup, and he'll even help give Nash some rest because he can run the point from the SF position. D.J. Strawberry was a steal as late as they got him, I guarantee he gets some burn next year.

- The Grizzlies are my sleepers for next year. They've got great young talent at every position, and I think they'll really work in Marc Iavaroni's Phoenix-style system. I love that they went out and got Gasol's Spanish team buddy Juan Carlos Navarro.

- I didn't like Houston's draft. I hated that they passed on a bunch of very talented power forwards to reach for an undersized point guard (Aaron Brooks). However, they've had a very good offseason  overall. They took a position that was a huge weakness (PG) and made it into a strength, with Steve Francis, Mike James, and Brooks. The starter from last year Rafer "Skip 2 My Lou" Alston, will be 3rd or 4th on the depth chart. They've also significantly improved their PF position by brining in Luis Scola, Jackie Butler, and Carl Landry to replace Juwan Howard. If Yao stays healthy and McGrady can play 60-65 games and be healthy in the playoffs, they're absolutely a legit contender.

- I don't like that Dallas did nothing to shake up their team. Coming off 2 consecutive postseason chokes (Yes, I know the Warriors were a bad matchup. No, I don't care. Losing to an 8 seed is a choke), they needed to make a move, and they didn't.

- James Posey was a great pickup for Boston. They desperately needed to pick up a backup small forward, and Posey is a solid defensive player who makes perimeter shots.
 

 

 
One last note. Hoff and I are going to be finishing up the NBA Legends Competition on Wednesday. I'm thinking arguments due at 5:00 PM EST, and voting will go for 2 days and end at 5:00 PM EST on Friday. Let me know if that's an issue for you Hoff. For the rest of you, tune in Wednesday and vote for whose team of all-time greats is superior.