Coach: Mike Dunleavy 2006-2007 Record: 40-42 06-07 Expected Record: 40-42 Offensive Rating: 105.2 (19th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 105.5 (9th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 48.1% (24th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 90.8 (19th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Cassell can still pass the ball and manage a team well, but he's not the offensive threat that he once was. His shooting percentages dropped precipitously last year, and at 38, I think we're seeing the end of the line for Sam I Am.
Well, the strength of this team is obviously on the wings, where Thomas, Thornton, Mobley, Maggette, Ross, and Patterson make for a deep and talented bunch. The problem for the Clips will be trying to find minutes for them all.
Thomas will probably spend most of his time at the power forward spot, and that's not really a good thing if you're a Clippers fan. Despite his enormous talent, Thomas has huge effort problems, and he doesn't rebound well or make a difference on the defensive end.
I wouldn't be surprised if Thornton got some burn at the 4 spot too (ala Shawn Marion). He's got great hops, long arms, and he's strong enough to defend the post. With so many other wing players on the squad, Thornton's best shot for PT might be at the PF spot.
Maggette is the team's best player, so you know he'll be getting a large chunk of the SG/SF minutes. Looking at the numbers, I was surprised by how good Maggette was last year. He doesn't shoot a particularly high percentage, he's not a great passer or a particularly great rebounder, but what sets him apart is that he gets to the free throw line A LOT and makes most of them (he was 3rd in the league in FTM).
Mobley is a good shooter from anywhere on the floor, but unfortunately, that's about all he does. At this point in his career, he doesn't add much other than long range shooting.
Now, being an N.C. State fan, I remember watching Josh Powell in college and thinking that he was really going to be a player, but he left after his sophomore year and took the long way to the league. I still think he has the potential to be a decent player since he's a very good athlete and rebounds well, but to count on him to be a major factor is a stretch. If you get decent play from him, that's a bonus.
X-Factor:Chris "The Caveman" Kaman - Seriously, every time I see a picture of Kaman I can't help but think that he should be doing Geico commercials. As far as his actual basketball playing goes, Kaman had a decent year 2 years ago, and really dropped off last year. Kaman has the talent to be a force in the post, he's a legit 7-footer who can score with either hand, and he's a pretty good rebounder. With Elton Brand out for the season, Kaman will get the chance to be the team's number one post option. How he handles the increased load will be a big part of determining if something positive will come of this season, or if it will just be a lost year.
Overview
After a very successful 05-06 season where they pushed the Suns to the limit in the conference semifinals, last season was a disappointing one for the Clippers. They lost point-guard-of-the-future Shaun Livingston to a horrific knee injury, and didn't play up to their talent. They were a good defensive squad, but their offense was terrible, with the only saving grace being that they took a ton of free throws. Even then, things didn't look too bad for the Clips coming into this year, and a more motivated squad plus the addition of Thornton looked like a promising playoffs squad. Then, Brand went down for the season, and all playoff hopes were lost. Brand wasn't as good last year as he was in 05-06, but he was still one of the top players in the league and the undeniable heart of the team.
Prediction
As I said in my Western Conference overview, few players in the game mean more to their team than Brand does to the Clippers. Without Brand, Kaman is their only decent rebounder or post scorer, and he's been inconsistent at best over his short career. Without Brand, the Clips will have to lean on the play of their forwards, and while they do have a deep and talented group of wing players, none of them are real elite, game-changing players. In the tough Western conference, the Brandless Clippers have little to no hope of finishing in the top 8. What Clippers fans can look forward to though is the development of Kaman and seeing the dynamic Thornton, who will make plenty of highlight reels, and looks for all the world like a young Matrix.
The long-awaited draft is over, so now its time to take a look at the results. It was actually a rather subdued draft until we got to the 18th pick or so, with the only real surprise being the Ray Allen trade. After that, things started going all kinds of crazy as Portland began to wheel and deal. Anyway, here's my team-by-team analysis of the draft. It's not grades, cause I don't like grades (btw, if we were to give teams a GPA based on their draft grades over time, what would Atlanta's be? 1.5? 2?). I'm going to give either a thumbs up, thumbs down, or on the fence for each team. So, starting with the Western Conference...
Now, I understand that Dallas didn't have a lot to work with here, but they didn't exactly make the most of it. I'll give them the last two, cause there's not that much talent that late, but they took Fazekas, who is quite possibly the worst athlete in the draft, in front of Glen Davis and Josh McRoberts, both much better talents. I don't see Fazekas being any kind of player in the NBA, he's just too slow, and slow big guys whose trademark is their shooting don't have a great track record.
Big thumbs up to the Warriors, who had my second favorite draft (behind Portland's masterpiece). Not only did they manage to grab some fantastic talent, but they got rid of Jason Richardson's contract too. I questioned their selection of Bellinelli instead of Jason Smith, but it makes sense with the acquisition of Wright. Take note that there's still a possibility that Yi will end up here for a package including Wright, though Milwaukee looks like they want to keep him. Wright is a perfect player for them. He has very little range to his game, but he's money near the hoop and he's a very good shot-blocker. At worst, he's a much more talented and athletic version of Andris Biedrins. Bellinelli is a dynamic 2-guard who has great range and can slash, but he's streaky (which should mean he fits in perfectly here). Lasme was one of my favorite second round guys, and I can see him contributing immediately as an energy/defense guy for the Warriors. Very good draft.
I really don't get their draft. They had McRoberts and Davis staring them in the face at both 26 and 31, and they passed them both times for inferior players. Brooks was a solid sleeper, but that's only a good pick if you don't reach for it, and they reached big-time for him. What's more puzzling is that they didn't even reach for a need, they've already got Mike James and Rafer Alston at the point and a gaping hole at PF. Landry is a gritty player, but he's undersized and can't rebound. McRoberts would've been perfect here, I'm really puzzled that they passed on him.
L.A. Clippers - Thumbs Up
Picks - Al Thornton (14), Jared Jordan (45)
The Clippers basically just sat back and took the best value that was available, and they ended up with 2 really good players who are both good fits. Thornton allows them to put the disgruntled Corey Maggette on the trading block. He's a terrific athlete, and I've been saying all along he's the second coming of Shawn Marion. He was easily the best value available for them. Jordan is a pure point who should be able to back up Sam Cassell right away. His ceiling as a player isn't very high, but he's a smart guy who should be able to carve out a niche in the league. I would've gone with Taurean Green there, but I can't fault them for taking Jordan.
L.A. Lakers - Thumbs Down
Picks - Javaris Crittenton (19), Sun Yue (40), Marc Gasol (48)
This rating is contingent on them keeping Kobe Bryant, which they have repeatedly said that they want to do. Were the Lakers set on building for the future, I would be ok with the Crittenton pick. He's the ultimate high-reward point guard prospect, with a good shooting touch, suberb athleticism, and a 6'5 frame. However, he's at least 2 years away from being able to run a team, and I doubt he'll contribute much next year. I'm not sold on Yue. From what I saw of him, he's not a great athlete and he didn't really impress me that much. They did get a steal in Gasol, who most mocks had up at the top of the second round.
Memphis Grizzlies - Thumbs Up
Picks - Mike Conley (4)
Not much to say about this. They took Conley, who was the best point guard in the draft and, in my opinion, the best player on the board at #4. He got better and better as the year went on last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a big contributor this year for Memphis. He's impossibly quick and has tremendous floor vision. Absolutely the right pick for the Griz.
Minnesota Timberwolves - On The Fence
Picks - Corey Brewer (7), Chris Richard (41)
As far as their draft goes, I think they made the right moves. Brewer was the obvious pick when he fell into their laps at #7, and Richard is a great value in the second round, he would be a first rounder if he'd played anywhere but Florida. However, I can't help but feel like the Timberwolves wasted their best chance to rebuild by not getting a KG deal done. They were adamant about what they wanted in return for him, and as a result of that they miss the chance to grab draft picks in the deepest draft in recent memory. I'm fine with the picks they made, but what they didn't do with KG devalues this for me.
New Orleans Hornets - Thumbs Up
Picks - Julian Wright (13), Adam Haluska (43)
They get a thumbs up because Wright at #13 is an absolute steal. He could've easily gone 6 picks higher than that. He doesn't fit a need quite as well as Nick Young would've, but there's no question that he was the best talent left on the board. On potential alone, he's probably the 3rd best guy in the draft. He had games at Kansas where he absolutely destroyed the opposing team. If the Hornets can get some consistency out of him, this is a great pick. Haluska was a surprise, as he wasn't really on anyone's radar. Really though, once you get into the last 20 picks, everything is a stretch.
Phoenix Suns - Thumbs Down
Picks - Alando Tucker (29), D. J. Strawberry (59)
Is there anything more depressing than seeing your team trade away a first round pick for cash? Yeah, the Suns have done that 4 straight times. Not only that, but they then took Tucker at 29, who is a PF in a SF's body. Oh yeah, he can't really shoot either. They had McRoberts and Gabe Pruitt sitting there at 29, and they took Alando Tucker instead. Ugh. The Suns have really made some disappointing moves in the last 2-3 years, and it's a shame cause I think their window for winning is closing. They had the chance here to either take players or trade for players who could bolster a championship level team, and they blew it. I do like the D.J. Strawberry pick at 59 though. He'll carve out a spot in the league as a lock-down defender.
Not only did the Blazers make an absolute killing with their picks but they also managed to bring another piece over in the Zach Randolph trade, Channing Frye. This is the best draft I've ever seen a team have. They drafted a franchise center in Oden, they got rid of head-case Randolph and his monster contract and brought in another good young big in Frye, they drafted two lottery-level talents in Fernandez and Koponen who will continue to mature overseas (something they had to do with all the guys they were bringing in with this draft), they got the steal of the draft in McRoberts at 37 (who is a perfect complementary post guy and also a good friend of Oden's), and they picked up Green about 20 spots later than most people had him ranked. That, my friends, is one heck of a draft. Here's the really scary thing about this team. By trading Randolph's contract for Francis's shorter deal, the Blazers made sure that they will be well under the cap in 2 years when guys like Aldridge and Roy start signing extensions. They've done so well building with young talent, and it's entirely possible that they will be able to keep all of it. Can anybody in the league match the young talent on their frontline with Oden, Aldridge, Frye, and McRoberts? This team is ridiculously scary.
Sacramento Kings - Thumbs Down
Picks - Spencer Hawes (10)
It's not that I don't think Hawes is a bad player. He's probably more-or-less the next Brad Miller, and Miller has had a very solid career with a few All-Star games tossed in there. However, with all the rebuilding that Sacramento has to do, they needed a high-ceiling kind of guy, and Hawes isn't it. Julian Wright would've been the much better pick here.
San Antonio Spurs - Thumbs Up
Picks - Tiago Splitter (28), Marcus Williams (33), Giorgos Printezis (58)
It's just not fair sometimes. The best team in the league adds a lottery-level talent who will wait a year before coming over. Splitter was a perfect fit for them, and they'll be reaping the benefits in two years. Williams is a great prospect with a ton of potential, but he never put it together in college. I was a little surprised that they didn't go with Derrik Byars, but if anyone can get Williams to put things together, it's the Spurs.
Seattle Supersonics - Thumbs Up
Picks - Kevin Durant (2), Jeff Green (5)
Big props to Seattle for being gutsy with their moves. Trading Ray Allen wasn't even something I was thinking about, but it makes a lot of sense. The word from Seattle is that they want to try and resign Rashard Lewis and be able to throw Green, Durant, and Lewis out there all at once. It's a remarkable idea, and I think that they could pull it off. There are very few players in the league versatile and athletic enough to run the 2,3,and 4 spots, but these guys could do it. Can you imagine trying to match up with that? Anyway, even if they don't bring Lewis back, Green is a great compliment to Durant. Overlooked in the Allen for Green deal is that they also brought in Delonte West, who is a solid player and should be the starter at the point for them next year.
Utah Jazz - Thumbs Up
Picks - Morris Almond (25), Kyrylo Fesenko (38)
I have no opinion on Fesenko, but Almond was a great pick at 25. He was obviously the best talent left on the board, and he fills the Jazz's need for a perimeter shooter. Considering where they were picking, the Jazz did a solid job.
Just as a final note, is anyone else as excited as I am that Ray Allen and Allen Ray are on the same team? I've been waiting for this since I learned that Villanova was bringing in a freshman named Allen Ray. It's fate, it had to happen, the basketball gods brought it about.
All right, we're a third of the way through the league now, so I've got 4 days to cover 20 teams. I'm gonna have to kick it up a notch in order to finish this.
Indiana Pacers
Roster For 07-08
PG - Jamaal Tinsley, Orien Green SG - Marquis Daniels SF - Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy, Shawne Williams PF - Jermaine O'Neal, Troy Murphy, Ike Diogu C - Jeff Foster, David Harrison
Picks
None
Well, the Pacers have an amazing amount of frontcourt depth, and it's solid young depth. Granger, Williams, Diogu, and Harrison are all guys with a ton of potential. The problem is that they're saddled with a few too many bad contracts, and Jamaal Tinsley isn't the answer at the point. So, what is Indiana to do? THe first order of business has to be trading Jermaine O'Neal. He wants out, and as good as he is, he's not worth $20 mil a year on a team that isn't going anywhere. The best fits in a trade would be Chicago or LA if they keep Kobe around. The problem is that the Pacers are likely going to overvalue O'Neal and demand more in a trade than anyone is willing to give. L.A. could send a package of Andrew Bynum, Kwame Brown, Vlad Radmanovic, and the #19 pick in order to get O'Neal, which would pair Kobe with a legit low-post scorer and stud defender without losing much in the way of support players. Indiana gains a promising young center, cap relief when Brown comes off the cap, and the #19 pick, with which they can grab a guard. The Bulls could offer Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Sefolosha, Chris Duhon, the #9 pick, and a sign & trade of P.J. Brown. This is a much more attractive package for the Pacers, but I think the Bulls would have to think this one over. They wouldn't give up any of their principle core, and they'd bring in exactly the type of player that they need, an efficient low-post scorer who is also a brilliant defender. Between Ben Wallace and O'Neal, I don't know if anyone would ever score on this team.
What They Should Do: Pitch the trade to the Bulls and hope they bite. That package is almost a 100% return on O'Neal. If they don't go for that, try to make a trade with LA. The main thing is that they need to make a move before O'Neal goes Kobe on them and drops a fiery trade demand. The faster they can free their cap of his contract, the faster they can rebuild around their promising core of post players. If you have to take slightly less value than you'd like for O'Neal in order to get something for him, it's worth it. It's unlikely that they'll be able to do anything about the terrible contracts of Troy Murphy or Mike Dunleavy, so they need to clear O'Neal's contract off the cap. The other move they should try to make is to sign Steve Blake with their mid-level exception (note how I keep recommending this? True point guards are a good thing guys).
What They Will Do: They'll market O'Neal around, but then chicken out because they don't get exactly the package they want in return.
L.A. Clippers
Roster For 07-08
PG - Sam Cassell, Shaun Livingston SG - Cuttino Mobley, Quinton Ross SF - Corey Maggette, Tim Thomas PF - Elton Brand, Paul Davis C - Chris Kaman, Aaron Williams
Picks
1 - 14 (14 overall) 2 - 15 (45 overall)
Say what you want about Donald Sterling, but this Clippers team is a very smartly built one. Outside of Tim Thomas (who should never ever get anything more than a 1-year deal), most everyone has reasonable contracts. However, the Shaun Livingston injury really throws things into flux, since their point guard of the future will probably miss all of next year and will most likely never be the same player he was. The consensus among experts is that the Clippers have to take a point guard at 14, whether that be Acie Law (preferable) or Javaris Crittenton. They could also look for a backup point with their second round pick, where they might be able to grab a Taurean Green or Jared Jordan. As far as post players go, they could look at Sean Williams or Jason Smith in the first round, though 14 is a bit high for either of them so they would probably try to trade down. In the second round, Ali Traore, Stephen Lasme, or Alando Tucker would be good options.
What They Should Do: Take Law. He's one of my favorite players in this draft, and he's one of the most NBA-ready players out there. Traore put on a great show at the Orlando pre-draft, and might not be around at 45, but he'd be a great pick there. Lasme is another one of my favorite sleepers, and he'd make a very solid frontcourt reserve.
What They Will Do: I can't see them not taking Law. It's the obvious pick at 14 and fills a need.
L.A. Lakers
Roster For 07-08
PG - Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic SG - Kobe Bryant, Maurice Evans SF - Vladimir Radmanovic PF - Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown, Brian Cook C - Andrew Bynum
So, the million dollar question (or, twenty-million dollar question, as the case may be) is, what do the Lakers do with Kobe Bryant? He desperately wants out, but the terms he will leave on (an Eastern conference team who can be a contender) are almost impossible to fill. Chicago meets the criteria, but it makes not sense for the Bulls to blow up their young nucleus in order to aquire Bryant. It sucks for Bryant, and it sucks for Lakers fans who have grown tired of Mr. 81, but we might just all have to get used to the idea of Kobe staying in LA. The fact is, this team is almost completely devoid of young talent to build around. Bynum is a solid young player, but a lot of experts don't even predict him as an all-star. Farmar might end up being an average point guard, the kind of guy who can lead a team filled with better parts. Luke Walton and Ronny Turiaf (both up for extension this offseason) are role players, probably solid bench guys on a championship team. That's it. On the other hand, this team is not as far as they may seem from competing. The trade I outlined above with Indiana would give this team a starting lineup of Farmar, Bryant, Walton, Odom, and O'Neal, an elite player, an all-star, and 3 decent role players. That's not a bad team, especially if Odom were to stop sleepwalking through games. They don't really have another option, since they'd be getting 25 cents on the dollar by trading Kobe right now, they just don't have any leverage.
What They Should Do: Make the trade with Indiana and try as hard as humanly possible to patch things up with Kobe (bringing O'Neal in would probably go a long way towards helping that). That's a team that can contend, and at this point it just isn't worth trying to turn things around and rebuild. If they keep the pick, they should take Gabe Pruitt, who is a local product who helps with the gaping hole at point. In the second round, Taurean Green is a possibility if they don't go with a point in the first, and other guys to watch for are Trey Johnson, Rayshawn Terry, Chris Richard, and Ramon Sessions.
What They Will Do: They'll probably waver on Bryant for the entire offseason, miss their chance to make any move, end up with him sitting out of games, and trade him for almost no value at midseason. Gotta love the NBA.
Memphis Grizzlies
Roster For 07-08
PG - Damon Stoudamire, Kyle Lowry SG - Dahntay Jones, Tarence Kinsey SF - Mike Miller, Rudy #### PF - Hakim Warrick, Brian Cardinal, Stromile Swift C - Pau Gasol, Alexander Johnson
Picks
1 - 4 (4 overall)
I think the Grizzlies are much closer to contending than most people think. They could use more depth on the wing and a real shotblocking post, but the main concern has to be at point guard. Kyle Lowry is a decent player, and I loved watching him in college, but he's not an NBA starter. The Griz have 2 options at the 4th pick, Mike Conley or Corey Brewer. Brewer is an explosive player and a great prospect, but I think the pick here has to be Conley. Elite point guards don't fall in to your lap every day (ask Atlanta about that one), and make no mistake, Conley is an elite prospect. The comparisons he draws to Tony Parker are accurate as far as his blinding quickness and ability to finish at the rim, but Conley is a much better distrubutor than Parker was early in his career (and maybe even now). He's the rare college point guard who always looked like he was in complete control of the game (and as a freshman no less!). He combines the speed of Parker with Steve Nash's superb speed control (how many times at Ohio State did we see him blow past the first defender only to slow up and evaluate things once he was in the lane). Honestly, as I'm writing this I'm starting to think I might have said the wrong thing for Atlanta, Conley is just that good. Give him a few years under NBA coaches to hone his jumpshot, and he's an all-star.
What They Should Do: Take Conley. Point guard is the hardest position in the NBA to fill, you can always look to sign a wing player later. I cannot stress enough the importance of having a pure point, especially one who comes up in your system alongside your other young guys so they can develop a rapport.
What They Will Do: This being the NBA and all, they'll probably take Brandan Wright or Yi. If this weren't so true, it would be funny.
pite his enormous talent, Thomas has huge effort problems, and he doesn't rebound well or make a difference on the defensive end.
, things didn't look too bad for the Clips coming into this year, and a more motivated squad plus the addition of Thornton looked like a promising playoffs squad. Then, Brand went down for the season, and all playoff hopes were lost. Brand wasn't as good last year as he was in 05-06, but he was still one of the top players in the league and the undeniable heart of the team. 
