Here's the thing with the MVP race this year, you can make a legitimate argument for four different candidates. The candidates are all so worthy and so different that I wouldn't argue anyone's choice if they backed it up logically. Of course, there are a lot of illogical arguments out there, and I have no qualms about destroying them with my scathing wit :P. Also, if you're going to argue that the MVP is anyone other than KG, LeBron, Kobe or CP3, you have to wear the stupid helmet.

What makes this MVP race especially difficult to decide is that the candidates are so completely different. Do you think that the MVP is the best player on the best team? It's hard to argue against KG there. Do you think the MVP is the most productive player? LeBron has a pretty strong claim to that distinction. You can make the case for anyone, and a lot of it depends on what you think the MVP award means. How do you define "Valuable"? As I write this, I'm not even sure who my pick is, I'm just going to make the best case I can for each player.

Make no mistake, this is not who I think will win the award. Kobe's going to win it, I don't think there's any doubt about that. This is who should win the award.

I'm gonna throw some statistics out there that you might not know. They aren't necessary to understand, but I'm just putting them out there. I explain them quickly in this post, a little way down the page.

LeBron James
Relevant Statistics:
51.8% eFG
71.2% FT
11.1 RB%
37.3 AST%
11.4 TO%
33.5 Usage%
116 ORtg

So, halfway through the year I announced that LeBron was my midseason MVP. What's changed since then? For LeBron and the Cavs, absolutely nothing. LeBron's stats are almost identical now to what they were at the halfway point. The Cavs' record at that point was 23-18, they ended the season at 45-37, almost exactly the same winning percentage. In fact, what I said at the time looks almost prescient in retrospect,

"LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs."

Quite simply, LeBron has been superb this season. Make whatever arguments you want about clutch or leadership or whatnot, but the fact of the matter is that LeBron has produced more, night-in and night-out, than any player in the league. To put things in perspective, the Cavs play the 6th slowest pace in the league, almost 10 possessions per game less than league-leading Denver. Despite that, he's putting up the kind of numbers that Oscar Robertson put up in his prime. He absolutely denies comparison, Within a few years, we could legitimately be talking about him in the "Greatest Of All Time" sense.History may show us to be fools if we deny him here. LeBron James has to be the MVP.

Chris Paul
Relevant Statistics
52.4% eFG
85.1% FT
6.2 RB%
52.2  AST%
12.1 TO%
25.7 Usage%
125 ORtg

It's taken Chris Paul a mere three seasons to draw comparisons to Isiah Thomas in his prime. Three years to rejuvenate basketball in New Orleans. Three years to become the unquestioned leader of the #2 seed in the toughest conference in history. Three years to give the Hornets their first ever division title. Three years. That's how long it took him to average 21 points and 12 assists per game. You know how long you've got to go back to find the last guy who went 20 and 10 with assists? All the way back to the 92-93 season, when Timmy Hardaway did it. Even more impressive? Paul did it while playing on the 5th slowest team in the league. When he was on the floor, CP3 assisted on 52% of his teammates' field goals. The only other guy ever to do that? It's this guy you might have heard of, goes by "Stockton". He's responsible for single-handedly making Tyson Chandler an offensive force. You want to see improving your teammates? The two seasons before he came to New Orleans, Chandler shot 52.3% on 4.4 FGA per game. In two seasons with Paul, Chandler has shot 62.3% on 7.1 FGA per game, and the Paul-to-Chandler alley-oop has become one of the NBA's signature plays. In three short years he's taken the title of "best point guard" from a hall of famer still playing some of the best ball of his career. He's one of the most efficient players in the NBA, he's the league's best point guard, and he saved basketball in New Orleans. Chris Paul has to be the MVP.

Kobe Bryant
Relevant Statistics
50.3% eFG
84% FT
9.0 RB%
23.9  AST%
11.3 TO%
31.4 Usage%
115 ORtg

Over the last 5 years, Kobe Bryant has arguably been the best basketball player on the planet. He's been to the Finals, he's carried a mediocre team to the playoffs the last two years, he's dropped 81 points in a single game, and he made All-Defensive Team after All-Defensive Team. In all that, he's been passed over for the MVP award time and again. People always had complaints: He shared credit with Shaq, his team wasn't good enough, he wasn't a good teammate, he looked for his own scoring too much. Well, no such complaints this year. Surrounded by a core of talented young players. Kobe has moved past his off-season discontent and been the leader the Lakers need. His guiding of an injury-plagued team to the #1 seed has been nothing short of amazing. Consider the Lakers' two main trade acquisitions this year. Paul Gasol has played effectively 26 of the 37 games since he came over, and Trevor Ariza has played a mere 24 of the 70 games since he arrived. Add to that the fact that centers Andrew Bynum and Chris Mihm have spent the majority of the year on the DL, and you see what a truly impressive feat it was for Kobe to take this team to the top of the Western Conference. He's become the player we kept saying he should be, and his team sits on top of the toughest conference of all time. Kobe Bryant has to be the MVP.

Kevin Garnett
Relevant Statistics
53.9% eFG
80.1% FT
16.8 RB%
19.9  AST%
110.8 TO%
25.5 Usage%
118 ORtg

Two numbers ultimately describe Kevin Garnett's impact this season. 66 and 24. That's the Celtics' win total from this year and their win total last year. Lest this 42 game swing doesn't impress you, remember back to the beginning of the season, back before the Celtics started demolishing everyone in their way, back when no one was sure how this would work. 3 superstars with 0 championship rings between them, not much of a bench and a reliance on young, unproven guys to fill the other spots on the court. We knew they'd be pretty good, we certainly knew they'd be better than last year, but no one was ready for this. 66-16, the best record in the league wire-to-wire, a huge +10.26 point differential (3.5 points higher than second-place Utah), and the best defense in the league by a long shot. More than anyone else, Garnett's impact goes beyond statistics (and that's saying something, since his are quite impressive). His arrival brought about a culture shift in Boston. His intensity has ratcheted up the defensive play of every other member of the team. His deft passing in the post and willingness to give them the ball has instilled confidence in guys like Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Leon Powe. His presence has drawn in free agents like James Posey, P.J. Brown and Sam Cassell to give the Celtics veteran depth. As far as overall impact on a franchise, it's hard to argue anyone has done more than Garnett. He's the best defender in the game, he turned his team around, and he rejuvenated basketball in Boston. Kevin Garnett has to be the MVP

---

There are legitimate cases to be made for all four candidates.  However, we've got to pick one, so who's it going to be?

LeBron might be the best basketball player on the planet, but his team hasn't been impressive this year. Despite their overall record, the Cavs actually have a negative point differential. Basically, they're lucky to have even broken .500, much less be a 45 win team. How much fault does LeBron take for that? I'm not inclined to criticize him much, since he's been surrounded by a truly sucktastic supporting cast this season. However, he certainly doesn't have the defensive impact that Kobe or Garnett have, and I'm not sure Chris Paul hasn't actually had the better offensive season.

Paul has certainly put up impressive numbers and led his team to be a lot better than they were supposed to be. However, he's also got some pretty solid teammates around him. Peja's shooting stroke and David West's solid all-around game (by the way, even though people keep saying it, he's still underrated) really complement his skills and give the Hornets a strong team. Unlike last year, and unlike the Lakers this year, Paul's Hornets have stayed healthy and haven't had to deal with much adversity during the season. Also, of all these 4, Paul is probably the weakest defensively.

Kobe's overall production and statistical impact just don't measure up to LeBron and Paul. Those two are having, quite simply, transcendent seasons. His season certainly doesn't jump off the page like the others do. Also, the MVP award isn't a career achievement award, it's an individual regular season award. Frankly, Kobe has had better seasons, and just because he didn't win it then doesn't mean that he should win it now. Sure, he has done a great job leading the Lakers, but does it even remotely compare to the job that Garnett has done in Boston?

Garnett might be the main force behind Boston's turnaround, but it's not like he did it alone. Having teammates like Paul Pierce and Ray Allen certainly helps. Garnett also isn't the guy who is going to take the tough shot at the end o####ame, he's never relished that role. Can you be the MVP if your team goes to other guys in the clutch, especially when compared to these other three guys?

The Pick

I've swung back and forth on this in the last few weeks more times than I care to count. As I said above, I hadn't decided who this pick would be even as I wrote the post. After poring over everything, I realized that my MVP vote has to go to Kevin Garnett. Here's the thing, all week I've kind of dismissed KG's candidacy. I thought he was the weakest of the four, not  on the same level as Kobe, Paul and LeBron. However, as I looked over all that he's done this year and the numbers that he has put up, it becomes harder and harder to find any reason not to pick him. I'm not concerned with the fact that he isn't their go-to clutch scorer, I'm much more concerned with what happens in the first 45 minutes of the game than what happens in the last 3. I remember back to the criticism of the Ray Allen trade and how that only really turned into a good thing once KG was on board. I thought back to how uncertain I was of the Celtics at the beginning of the season. I thought about how Garnett transformed a team with no other guys who you could call reliable top-tier defenders and transformed them into one of the best (if not the best) defensive teams of the past ten years. His defensive presence, the way he has completely altered the team's atmosphere and the incredible turnaround from worst to first all point to one thing.

Kevin Garnett is the MVP

Well, I wanted to make this post a while ago, but I've been fighting sickness for the last two weeks, so it's slightly belated. Anyway, I'm gonna give you my All-Star Teams, and explain to you why some of the guys you might expect to be there aren't.

First of all, note that this is not a lifetime achievement award. I do not care what you did last year, nor do I care what you might be expected to do for the rest of the year. Performance is what matters.

Second, while I do consider your team's record, it's not a huge factor to me. I'm not going to penalize you for having crappy teammates.

Finally, I'm going to list some relevant statistics for each player. These are not going to be PPG or RPG statistics, cause frankly those are usually poor measures of performance and you can find them anywhere. Because I'm going to be listing some statistics that some of you might not recognize, I'll give you a quick synopsis of some of them.

eFG (effective field goal percentage) - This is simply field goal percentage, except it gives extra credit for three-pointers.

ORtg (Offensive Rating) - A measure of how efficient an offensive player is. It's a ridiculously complicated formula, but basically it estimates how many points a player creates per every 100 possessions they use.

USG% (Usage %)- The estimated percentage of the team's possessions that a player uses  while they're on the floor. As a general rule, as USG% goes up, ORtg goes down (harder to be efficient the more you're asked to do). Point Guards often have lower USG% (around 20%), whereas high-volume scorers (DWade, LeBron, Kobe, etc.) usually have a USG% of 30% or more.

AST% - An estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals that you assist on while you're on the floor.

TO% - estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions. Anything below 10 is outstanding, over 20% is usually pretty bad.

REB% - An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds that a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

(most statistics courtesy of basketballreference.com)

That said, on to the teams.

xphoenix87's Eastern Conference All-Stars

Starting Lineup

Guard-Chauncey Billups (53.4% eFG, 90.4% FT, 22.5 USG%, 128 ORtg, 34.6 AST%, 12.7 TO%)
One of the steadiest players in the league, and one of the most ruthlessly efficient offensive players out there. He's a nightmare to match up against for most teams because he's so good at backing down opposing point guards and abusing them with short turnaround jumpers or headfaking them into fouling him. Billups was an easy pick.

Guard-Jose Calderon (58.7% eFG, 91.7% FT, 130 ORtg, 44.8 AST%, 13.8 TO%, 5.58 A/T)
I know, he didn't even make the All-Star team, I must be out of my mind to have him as a starter, right? Well, lets look at him versus the actual All-Star starters, Jason Kidd and Dwayne Wade. There's been a lot of hype about Kidd and his near-triple double pace this season, but how about the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.

Forward-LeBron (33.6 USG%, 116 ORtg, 51.3% eFG, 37.8 AST%, 11 TO%, 11.8 REB%)
Any argument that LeBron should be the starter here? Didn't think so, moving on.

Forward-KG (24.2 USG%, 120 ORtg, 55.1% eFG, 17.2 REB%, 20.5 AST%)
More than any statistic, the impact of Garnett is most pronounced in these numbers.

106.9
24

98
38

The first two numbers are Boston's defensive rating and win total from last year. The second two are those same numbers from this year. Defensive impact has been notoriously tricky to quantify, but the effect of Garnett on Boston has been palpable.

Center-Dwight Howard (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 21.6 REB%, 60.2% eFG)
Again, anyone want to argue this? Howard is easily the most dominant center in the conference, if not the entire league.

Bench

Guard-Dwyane Wade (33 USG%, 103 ORtg, 35.8 AST%, 9 FTA/36, 75.6% FT, 46.8% eFG)
Is he having a down year? Yeah, sure, but he's still Dwyane Wade. He still gets to the line as well as anyone in the league, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.

Guard-Rip Hamilton (24.7 USG%, 114 ORtg, 53.1% eFG, 23 AST%, 10.4 TO%, 81.5% FT)
Honestly, I searched really hard to find someone who deserved this spot, maybe someone that everyone else had missed. No dice. As I mentioned above, the guards in the East are so bad that I'm really kind of reaching here (as opposed to the West, which is overflowing with candidates). In the end, nobody I looked at was having a better year than Hamilton. A lot of people like Ray Allen here because of how well Boston has played, but I'm not buying that, and Rip is having a better year. Hamilton is an extremely efficient scorer, and might be the league's best at using off the ball screens (It's between he and Kevin Martin IMO). In addition, he's also a very solid defensive player (as with most Pistons players).

Forward-Caron Butler (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 50.8% eFG, 91.3% FT, 20.5 AST%)
Butler supposedly made "The Jump" last year when he made it into his first All-Star game. Well, if he was jumping last year, he's flying this year. His turnovers are down, his assists are way up, his shooting percentages are way up, and he's carrying the Wizards in Gilbert Arenas' absence. His mid-range game has always been among the best in the league, but this year he has really increased his range, shooting 36.5% from long-range.

Forward-Paul Pierce (25.7 USG%, 110 ORtg, 49.6% eFG, 22.8 AST%, 8.8 REB%)
I was trying to decide between Pierce and Richard Jefferson here, and really the difference between the two is minimal. Their stat profiles are so similar that it's almost impossible to chose between them. Jefferson is putting up better pure scoring numbers, but Pierce is the better distributor and rebounder. In the end, it comes down to Pierce being the superior defensive player and more proven star.

Center-Chris Bosh (28.6 USG%, 117 ORtg, 14.9 REB%, 10.2 TO%, 48.9% eFG, 85.6% FT)
Even if Bosh didn't actually deserve this, he's really the only choice. At any rate, Bosh is having the best season of his career. He's often the forgotten 4th member of that LeBron, Wade, Melo draft class, but he has absolutel
y kept himself at that level. He hasn't yet become a dominant defensive force, but he's definitely improving as a disruptive force who can defend without fouling. Offensively, he rivals Garnett and Duncan as the best face-up post men in the league. He's got a great jab step, and he's so quick and so long that he's almost impossible to guard without help. That quickness means he gets to the line a TON, and his FT% has shot up to 85% this season. He's also got great hands, makes quick decisions, and picks his spots well, leading to very low turnover numbers for a guy his size who has such a high usage rate.

Wild Card #1-Richard Jefferson (27.5 ORtg, 111 ORtg, 48.5% eFG, 80.4% FT)
If I struggled with Jefferson vs. Pierce above, it didn't take a lot of thought to put him here. A bit overlooked in the Nets' collapse, Jefferson is completing his transformation from a role player who finished Jason Kidd alley-oops into the team's star-quality first option. It isn't the most efficient year of Jefferson's career, but he's taking on a much bigger role in the offense, and he's thriving.

Wild Card #2-Josh Smith (26.5 USG%, 100 ORtg, 13 REB%, 45.3% eFG, 20 AST%, 3.4 BPG, 2 SPG)
There were three people I considered here: Smith, Antwan Jamison, and Tayshaun Prince. Jamison is having a solid year, and he's rebounding than he ever has in his career. He doesn't make many mistakes (4th lowest TO% in the league), but the fact that he shoots 30% from the field really hurts him. He also doesn't play defense, and he just isn't a good enough offensive player to make up for that and get on the team for me. Prince is a fantastic player who often gets overlooked in Detroit, but he's a matchup nightmare with his length and versatility, and he's one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. However, if I'm going to go with a defensive force, it's got to be Smith. He might not have much polish as an offensive player yet, but Smith is the rare player who can be a dominating defensive force against multiple positions. Like Andrei Kirilenko, he can match up with wing defenders, but he's also a force defending the rim and drifting into passing lanes. The Hawks are 9th in the league in defense, and the biggest reason is Smith's game-altering presence.

Some guys of note on the outside looking in

Kidd - People get wrapped up in the whole triple-double thing, but the fact is that Kidd has really fallen off as an offensive player. He can't finish around the rim at all anymore, and he's turning the ball over at a prodigious rate. People need to start getting used to the idea that the 34-year old Kidd may not be an elite point guard any more.

Jamison - I went over this above. Very good offensive player, very bad defensive player.

Michael Redd - What I said about Jamison, only more pronounced. To say that he plays matador defense is an understatement.

Hedo Turkoglu - Hedo is a fantastic story this year as he has really improved his play and become a key part of Orlando's success. He's had some truly great moments at the ends of games too. However, I think he's much more a top-tier role player than he is an all-star. He isn't a good defender, and his offensive numbers are good, but not great.

Joe Johnson - He's only noteworthy because he's on the actual all-star team. In reality he's having his worst season as a Hawk, and doesn't deserve to be on the team.

Western Conference team coming soon

You know, I’ve tried to write this post like 6 times, and every time I just stall at the beginning and give it up. Maybe I’ll actually get it written this time.

Anyway, we’ve hit the half way point of the NBA season. It’s time to look back at what we’ve learned, as well as look forward to what we can expect from the rest of the season. With that in mind, lets take a look at some of the teams that I really missed on.

Memphis Grizzlies
Wow, did I miss on these guys or what? Strangely enough, a lot of what I thought would happen with them did happen. Rudy #### really blossomed in his second year, becoming a potent scorer, J.C. Navarro has been one of the best rookies in the league and has had some truly spectacular shooting performances, and Mike Conley has played very well since returning from injury. They’re actually a decent offensive team. However, where I was wrong was thinking that they would be an improved defensive team. #### hasn’t been much of a defender, even though he has all the tools for it, Kyle Lowry isn’t having nearly as much impact as last year, and most importantly, Darko has been absolutely terrible. One reason I liked them so much was because an even slightly improved Darko would give them a much-needed shot-blocking presence in the back of their defense. Instead, Darko has, amazingly, been much, much worse than he was in Orlando last year. Of course, I also though 42 or 43 wins would get you into the playoffs out West, and that doesn’t appear to be the case at this point. Oh well, they’ll at least put themselves in good position to get Mike Beasley or DeAndre Jordan in the draft.

Chicago Bulls
I, like everyone else, have been pretty stunned by the poor performance of the Bulls. Now, to some extent we probably should’ve been able to see this coming. All the talk about a Kobe trade obviously had an effect on the young guys on this team. It was also painfully obvious that Ben Wallace was declining rapidly as a player. However, there’s no way that anyone could’ve predicted the inexplicably bad play of the Bulls’ young core players. To have one young guy regress when he should be improving is one thing, but for five guys under the age of 27? It’s absolutely incredible. Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon and Thomas are all having worse seasons than last year. We’re not just talking about slightly worse either, we’re talking about them being significantly less productive. 7 of the top 8 guys on the team (with Joe Smith as the exception) are shooting worse than they were last season. It’s absolutely mind-blowing how the young Bulls have regressed. I think we’re going to see the Bulls in the playoffs at the end of this season 1) because they’re in the East, and as bad as they’ve been they’re only a game behind the Pacers for the last playoff spot right now, but also because 2) it’s absolutely unheard of for a team full of young players to take a huge step backwards like this, and I think they’ll bounce back some and be respectable by season’s end.

Portland Trailblazers
I actually kind of thought Portland would be better than most people thought they would, but I never thought they’d have this kind of success. The biggest shocker to me has been the extraordinary play of Brandon Roy. I’ll be honest, I thought Roy was a really good player when Portland drafted him, and I thought he’d make a few All-Star teams and be a really good player, but I never thought he’d be this good, this fast. He has become the unquestioned leader of the team that has the best chemistry in the league. He does all the little things and he’s a big-time clutch player, making big shots, big defensive stops and getting big rebounds. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player with a better hesitation move than Roy, he reminds me a bit of Nash in the way that he always looks like he’s completely under control. Of course, the other big reason for the Blazers’ success has been the brilliant coaching of Nate McMillan. This Blazers team has great chemistry, they run their offensive sets really well, and they use zone defenses as well as any team in the league. That’s great coaching, McMillan has got this young team executing and believing in themselves.

Those are the teams that have really surprised this year, but we’ve also learned a lot this season about the league’s elite teams. With that in mind, I’m taking another look at my list of potential contenders and cutting it down to size a bit.

My list from the preseason looked like this (in no particular order): Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Jazz, Celtics, Nuggets, Bulls, Suns

My list now (again, in no particular order): Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers

So, why did I drop the teams I did?

Bulls are obvious, I’m not going to go over them

Jazz
They can’t defend the post at all, and I can’t bring myself to pick them in a conference with Duncan, STAT, Yao, Dirk, and now Bynum. You have to defend the post, and they can’t.

Mavs
Gone unnoticed by basically everyone is the fact that the Mavs’ defense has not been good this year. This team was 2nd in the league on offense and 5th on defense last year, this year they’re 2nd on offense and 18th on defense. Add that to their playoff failures the last two years and this team screams “paper tiger” to me.

Suns
Hardest drop from the list for me. I love Nash and I think this team is tremendously talented. However, they’re a worse defensive team than last year, and they aren’t going to win a title that way. Amare continues to be a weakness defensively in the post, and Brian Skinner brings defense, but he doesn’t have any offensive skills. Kurt Thomas was so great because he could both guard bigs and step out and hit the mid-range jumper, Skinner can’t do that. I hate it, but bad defensive teams don’t win titles.

You’ll notice a common theme on why I didn’t pick any of the previous teams. To put the importance of defense in perspective, there have only been 2 teams in the modern era who have won a title without a top 10 defense, and they were the ‘95 Rockets and the ’01 Lakers (who don’t even really count because they played great defense the year before and the year after and during the playoffs with essentially the same team, and obviously didn’t care about the regular season this year). Moral of the story is that defense is really important.

You may also be wondering why the Hornets didn’t make the list. Simply put, they don’t have a bench. I would take their starting five against any other starting unit in the league, but they don’t have the depth or the experience to make a deep run, especially not if anyone (read: Peja) gets hurt. I love the team, I love Chris Paul, they’re a great story, but I don’t think this is their year.

So, why the teams that I did pick?

I’m not going over the Spurs and Celtics, you all know why they’re on that list.

Nuggets
They have two possible starters who are out indefinitely with injury (Nene and Chucky Atkins), Carmelo’s production and efficiency is down significantly from his past two seasons, and they have a serious lack of three-point shooting. Still, they’re 25-16 and first in their division. The reason is because Allen Iverson has fully embraced being a co-star with Melo and is having the most efficient season of his career, and because Marcus Camby takes this team from being a very bad defensive team to being a very good defensive team. If Atkins comes back healthy or they can add one more shooter through a trade, I think this becomes a very dangerous offensive team as well as a good defensive team, and that makes them a contender.

Rockets
They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system. As I wrote back when I blogged the season-opener between LA and Houston, McGrady dominating the ball so much absolutely kills this offense, and they often look significantly better without him on the court. However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing.

Pistons
I left them off in the preseason because I thought they were missing the tough, killer-instinct, underdog mentality that fueled their last title run. What I didn’t count on was the Celtics getting off to a historical start and really lighting a fire under the Pistons to prove that they were the best team in the East. I honestly think that Boston’s great start had a positive impact on the Pistons, that it lit a fire under them that they didn’t have last year when LeBron trampled all over them in the playoffs. They’re also getting fantastic bench production and they execute and exploit weak defenders as well as any team in the league. I still don’t think they could beat the Spurs, but I think they could beat another team from the West if San Antonio doesn’t make the finals

Lakers
This one comes with a caveat. I reserve the right to dismiss this if the post-injury Bynum we get isn’t the same as pre-injury Bynum. LA has been a MUCH better defensive team this year because Bynum has been on the floor more, has become far less foul-prone, and has rebounded a lot better than last year. The bench and the contributions of Derek Fisher have been great, but Bynum is the key. He isn’t an elite player yet by any means, but he has great hands and finishes well on offense, and he improves their defense exponentially. If he comes back playing as well as early on this season, the Lakers are a long-shot contender.

Well, this post has run on long enough, and I’m sure you’re all tired of my wordiness. The last thing I’ll leave you with is my MVP pick for the first half of the season.

MVP: LeBron James
 With all due respect to Kevin Garnett’s fantastic work in Boston and Kobe’s exceptional play and leadership (who ‘da thunk it?), this isn’t even close. Yes, I know about Boston’s 33-7 record and how KG has gotten everyone playing great defense. I repeat, the MVP race is NOT EVEN CLOSE. Lebron uses more of his team’s possessions than anyone outside of DWade, and his offensive rating this year is 12 points higher than Flash! He averages 30-8-7 with 2 steals and a block, and he shoots almost 50%. Lebron’s AST% (an estimate of the percentage of his teammates’ field goals his assists while on the court) is 6th in the league. 6th! He’s one percentage point behind Deron Williams! It’s not quite MJ numbers that we’re talking about here, but we’re getting close. LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs. He’s the MVP, Period.

Alright, that’s it for me, I finally got this post cranked out. I’ll be sharing my opinions on the All-Star team next post, which should be pretty soon, so keep a look out for that.

Quick preview here, as I've only got time to get through one team right now. I'll post a few more later, but you can check out this until then.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Roster for 07-08

PG - Daniel Gibson, Eric Snow
SG - Larry Hughes, Damon Jones, Shannon Brown, Ira Newble, David Wesley
SF - Lebron James, Donyell Marshall
PF - Drew Gooden
C - Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Picks

None
Zilch
Nada

Well, the good news for the Cavs is that they're coming off their first finals appearance, and they've got the best young player in the game. The bad news is...well, everything else. The team is filled with bad contracts, and the two best values on their team (Sasha Pavlovic and Anderson Varejao) just expired. The Cavs desperately need to drop some of their inflated contracts, but they don't really have the assets to do so. The rapidly deteriorating Ilgauskas makes $10 million a year for the next 3 years. The ridiculously injurt-prone and ineffective Larry Hughes makes almost as much as Lebron over those same 3 years. Eric Snow and Damon Jones will make almost $11 million a year combined each of the next 2 years. Donyell Marshall will make $12 million in 2 years. To top it all off, the Cavs have no draft picks. There might not be a team in the league that has as many bad contracts as the Cavs. So what are they to do this offseason? Lebron desperately needs a point guard who can shoot, but Cleveland doesn't have the money to sign Chauncey Billups or the assets to trade for Mike Bibby. They need to resign Anderson Varejao, and they probably don't have the space to keep both he and Pavlovic (depending on how much each asks for). As much as Cavs fans might hate this, the proper answer might be to wait for next year. In the 08 offseason, they would have 3 expiring contracts to trade (Marshall, Jones, and Snow), and they could package them to someone rebuilding to get something back (Gilbert Arenas in a sign™ anyone?). The likelihood of moving Big Z or Hughes is low, though they might find takers for Hughes (his value is really low right now though), so they're stuck with those contracts.

What Should They Do: Resign Varejao as long as the price is right, and let Pavlovic go unless he's real cheap. Wait till next year when you actually have some assets to make a move. If you can find someone who will take either Z or Hughes for a reasonable value (maybe as being a facilitator in a big superstar trade), go for it.

What They Will Do: They'll probably overpay to keep both Varejao and Pavlovic and handicap their contract situation even more. The rumor is that they want to try and trade into the first round, though what exactly they plan to trade is beyond me. If they can find someone stupid enough to give them a draft pick for what is on their roster, so much the better for them.

My blog so far has been all about the NBA, but I promise, that will change. It just happens that there's nothing else exciting to blog about in the sports world right now. Anyway, with the season wrapped up, here are some final thoughts.

Cavs fans - Stop whining about officiating. Stop whining about how the league rigged things for the Spurs to win. You have absolutely no case. Everybody knew going in that you were going to lose, and you did. The only team that has a legitimate beef with the league is Phoenix, who got #### by a stupid rule. Just be happy you got to the finals and that you get to watch Lebron every night for the next 3 years.

Barring injury, the Spurs will be the prohibitive favorite again next year. It doesn't look like Phoenix is going to make a big move to improve since they're looking to cut costs, and the Mavericks are looking for all the world like a broken team in need of a change. The Spurs? They've got their big 3 locked up for 3 more years, and the only significant players they may lose this year are Oberto and Finley if they opt out of their deals (Finley won't, Oberto probably will). Parker and Ginobili continue to get better, Duncan is always brilliant, and they've got a few young players who have a lot of potential (James White, Jackie Butler).

I love the idea of this trade.

Z. Randolph to Chicago

#9 pick, sign&trade P.J. Brown, Chris Duhon to Portland.

Everybody wins here. Randolph immediately makes the Bulls the East favorite, as they add a legit 20-10 guy without giving up any of their talented young core. Ben Wallace is the perfect complement for Randolph becasue he covers his weaknesses, and the Bulls would have an actual low-post scoring threat. They'd be a legit title contender. Portland moves Randolph's huge contract and character problems, gets a pick they can use on a small forward to fill that hole (I love Thornton here) or Conley if he's still there. Brown is a good veteran mentor for Oden & Aldridge and Duhon is a solid backup at the point.

I love the way Portland has built through the draft, they're my team to watch over the offseason. If they made that trade, their young core could look like this.

PG - J. Jack
SG - B. Roy
SF - A. Thornton
PF - L. Aldridge
C - Oden
Bench - M. Webster, C. Duhon, F. Jones, S. Rodriguez

That's a frighteningly good young core of players, especially on the defensive end. Jack is one of the league's better defenders at PG, Roy is no slouch, Thornton is the second coming of Shawn Marion, and Aldridge and Oden are both exceptional shot blockers. Not only that, but the LaFrentz deal comes off the books before any of those starters are up for resigning, and the Miles deal one year later. They could potentially have the cap room to keep this together for years. So keep an eye on Portland.

I know it's been said a lot already, but it's time for Detroit to rebuild. They're not going to win any more titles with that crew, and at best they're probably the 3rd best team in the conference next year. Don't prolong it Joe D., the early you start rebuilding, the faster you'll be cometitive again.

A team I like to surprise people next year is Milwaukee. They got hit hard with injuries last year, but there's a lot of talent on that team, certainly enough to contend in the East.

I know it won't happen, but how awesome would it be if Seattle resigned Lewis and just built the team as a run and gun, high-scoring offense revolving around Allen, Lewis, and Durant. I would love to see that team play, they'd be absolutely unguardable.

If Cleveland can't find a shooter this offseason to play with Lebron, it will be an absolute travesty.

If K.C. Jones is in the Hall of Fame, Robert Horry has to get in.

I think Duncan and Lebron battle it out as the frontrunners for the MVP trophy next year.