Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.
Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.
I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-####, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.
In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.
Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.
Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.
Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.
It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.
Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.
Coach: Jim O'Brien 2006-2007 Record: 35-47 06-07 Expected Record: 35-47 Offensive Rating: 102.8 (30th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 105.6 (10th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 47.4% (29th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 92.4 (10th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
I just realized that Jermaine O'Neal didn't make the All-Defensive Team last year. That's a travesty. This is a team on which Jamaal Tinsley, Troy Murphy, and Mike Dunleavy all played major minutes, and none of them are exactly defensive wonders. Still, this team finished 10th in the league in defense, pretty much entirely because O'Neal was a monster at blocking shots while also guarding the opposing team's best post scorer. Offensively, O'Neal is way overrated. He falls in love with his mid-range jumper too much , so he shoots a poor percentage for an interior player and isn't an efficient scorer. He's a good player if you don't need him to be your main option, but he's not a good enough offensive player to be a team's primary scorer.
Jamaal Tinsley is going to have to play tons of minutes, cause they don't have anyone else, and that's not really a good thing. He commits a lot of turnovers, and he shoots a very low percentage. He's a big reason why this team was the second-worst shooting team in the league and had the fourth most turnovers.
Murphy is a serviceable player off the bench since he's a decent rebounder and an exceptional mid-range shooter. He's not going to create a lot of points in the low post, but that jumper is deadly. Defensively though, he's absolutely awful. Lets just say that quickness is not his strong suit.
Dunleavy is kind of the classic "Jack of All Trades but Master of None". He's a decent rebounder from the G/F spot, he's a good shooter, and a good passer, but nothing about him really stands out. Well, that's not entirely true. What did stand out as the Pacers insisted on playing Dunleavy at the SG position is that he's not a very good defender at all. He gives up so much quickness playing against guards that he might as well not even be there on defense.
Ike Diogu has the potential to be a really good player once he polishes his game up some. He's really good at getting himself to the line (averaging over half a free throw attempt per field goal attempt) and shoots a very high percentage from the charity stripe. He's also a very good rebounder, especially for a guy his size. Right now the big thing that is keeping him from being successful is that he is extremely turnover prone, something that we can probably expect to see improve drastically as he gets more experienced. The other problem is defense, which isn't so easy to correct. He's probably never foing to be a very good defender since he's not especially quick and is undersized, but he makes up for it some by being a good rebounder.
I guarantee you there are a bunch of teams out there who would love to have Jeff Foster on their roster. He may be completely offensively deficient, but man can he rebound.
X-Factor: Danny Granger - I remember watching the draft a few years ago and wondering how on earth Danny Granger kept dropping and dropping till the Pacers got him at #17. In his two seasons in the league, he's done little to dispel my notion that he should've gone higher. Granger is one of the few players on this team who is a legitimate potential all-star young talent. He's a versatile scorer who is effective driving the ball or shooting it. He's probably the best offensive player on this team, and he has to become more aggressive if the Pacers want to avoid repeating as the league's worst offensive team. On the other end, he's emerging as an excellent defensive stopper. His athleticism and length make him a tough matchup for most of the league's elite wing players.
Overview
The most positive thing to happen to this team last year might have been getting rid of supreme headcase Stephen Jackson. Other than that, there wasn't a lot of exciting stuff going on in Pacertown. With basically no legitimate scoring options, the Pacers finished with the league's worst offense, despite being the 10th best offensive rebounding team. Truly, this was a painful team to watch. With no first round draft picks and not a lot of cap flexibility, the Pacers were left with basically the same roster, filled with a lot of overpaid players and not a lot of young talent.
Prediction
This team has a bunch of great bench players. Unfortunately, those bench players happen to be in the starting lineup for Indy. Tinsley, despite his flashes of talent, really is a terrible option at point guard, and their only real legitimate scorer is Granger. There's been practically no change to the roster, and this was definitely not a successful roster last year. The most likely course for the Pacers seems to be finding a trading partner for O'Neal, then proceeding to head right to the top of the lottery. This Pacers team just isn't very good.
15th in the East - If You're Bad in the East, You're Really Bad
Start stockpiling provisions, the apocalypse is coming. The Hawks actually made the right move in this draft by taking the best player on the board and the best point guard on the board. The Hawks now have a scary core group of Law, Johnson, M. Williams, Childress, Smith, Horford, S. Williams, and Pachulia that could contend in the east for the next decade. Of course, this is the Hawks, and Billy Knight is still in charge, so that probably won't happen, but it's a very promising young group.
Boston Celtics - Thumbs Up
Picks - Gabe Pruitt (32), Glen Davis (35)
Well, it's hard to argue with basically trading the #5 pick for Ray Allen. Regardless of what happens with Allen's foot surgery and how his game will hold up with age, that's an incredibly cheap price for a guy with his talent. Their two draft picks, Pruitt and Davis, were both great values who went about 10 picks later than they should have. Pruitt should immediately help as a point guard with a jumpshot, and Davis was a great value who could turn out to be a star if he keeps his weight down. Few players in the draft were as adept post scorers as Davis; he's reminiscent of Zach Randolph without the off-the-court problems.
Charlotte Bobcats - On The Fence
Picks - Jared Dudley (22), Jermareo Davidson (36)
I was a huge fan of the Dudley pick when it happened, but I don't like it as much after the trade. Charlotte desperately needs more post players, especially with Okafor and May's health issues. Once they traded Wright, they didn't have that help coming in. I think they probably would've been better off with Tiago Splitter or Josh McRoberts there. I liked the trade, and there is the possibility that they could pick up another post in free agency, but that's a bit of a risk, as there aren't many good low post guys out there (Milicic and Varejao are really the headliners). Still, they did some good things and I like the way the franchise is heading in general.
I hate the Noah pick, absolutely hate it. He's an inferior player to Tyrus Thomas and Ben Wallace in almost every way. The Bulls are a legitimate post scorer away from being a championship contender, and they had Spencer Hawes on the board. Not only did they pass on Hawes, but they also didn't make a move on Zach Randolph. I still think they should pursue a deal for Jermaine O'Neal (Thomas, Noah, Thabo Sefolosha and sign & trade P.J. Brown), but they don't seem interested in that either. For a team so close to contending, the Bulls seem very hesitant to make an aggressive move, and that would scare me if I were a Bulls fan.
We've known for a while that Stuckey was their man, but I think they missed an opportunity when Nick Young fell to them. Stuckey is kind of a poor man's Randy Foye, and should be a decent combo guard in the league. However, Young has all-star level talent on the same level as Corey Brewer. Affalo is a Detroit-type player, but they don't really have a need at SG after taking Stuckey, and they had Marcus Williams, Glen Davis and Josh McRobert all available, who are better talents and need positions.
Indiana Pacers - ???
Picks - Stanko Barac (39)
I have no opinion. He's a face-the-basket 7-footer, and that rarely works out, but whatever.
Miami Heat - Thumbs Down
Picks - Daequan Cook (21)
Memo to Pat Riley: your team is aging quickly and you need to win now. Of all the gaps the Heat desperately need to fill, I don't think "inexperienced shooting guard with attitude problems" was one of them. If the Heat really wanted a shooter, Morris Almond was a much better pick there. Really, anyone was a better pick there. Kudos for bluffing Philly into giving up a second rounder to switch spots with you, but Cook is a terrible pick.
Milwaukee Bucks - On The Fence
Picks - Yi Jianlian (6), Ramon Sessions (56)
The decision on the Bucks' draft will be made sometime in the next few days as the Yi situation is fleshed out. If it turns out Yi isn't so averse to going to Milwaukee or if the Bucks trade him (Golden State is the likely candidate), then taking a chance on the best available talent was worth it. If not and Yi either doesn't show up or skulks through the season, then the Bucks made a terrible mistake. Time will tell on this one. Sessions was a great pick up that late though. He was a guy who people were talking about as a possible low first rounder after he had some impressive camps. Landing him at 56 was a great pick for the Bucks at a need position.
New Jersey Nets - Thumbs Up
Picks - Sean Williams (17)
I've wavered on this quite a bit, but in the end I think it was the right pick for the Nets. This is a franchise in limbo, and they need something big to happen. If Williams is able to display the kind of play that he showed at the beginning of the season for Boston College, this pick is a steal. It's a huge risk, but it's obvious that the Nets really thought this one out.
New York Knicks - Thumbs Down
Picks - Wilson Chandler (23), Demetris Nichols (53)
What will it take to get Isaiah Thomas fired? Check my last post if you want a detailed explanation of why the Zach Randolph trade was terrible for New York. Outside of that disaster, the Knicks reached on Wilson Chandler after they made a promise to him, they could've gotten him 10 picks later. I don't care if Isaiah knows talent, he's a crappy executive in every other facet.
Orlando Magic - Who Cares
Picks - Milovan Rakovic (60)
...Moving on.
Philadelphia 76ers - Thumbs Up
Picks - Thaddeus Young (12), Jason Smith (20), Derrick Byars (42), Herbert Hill (55)
I love almost everything about the Sixers' draft. Smith is a great pick for their PF need, Byars was an amazing value at 42, as was Hill at 55. However, I don't particularly like Young at 12, since I think Thornton and Wright were were better picks there. Also, they basically traded their 30th pick for the 42nd pick (cash considerations always bug me). All in all though, they had a very solid draft.
Toronto Raptors - Again, I Don't Care
Picks - Giorgos Printezis (58)
Darn this European influx. Again, I know nothing about this guy.
Washington Wizards - Thumbs Up
Picks - Nick Young (16), Dominic McGuire (47)
The Wizards got two steals where they were drafting. Young is a stud player who could've gone as high as #8 to Charlotte. McGuire is a great athlete who is a strong defender. For a pick that late, he's a great value.
Well, that's it for NBA stuff for a while. I'll post some on various deals that may happen in the offseason, but probably no more large NBA posts until I preview the next season.
All right, we're a third of the way through the league now, so I've got 4 days to cover 20 teams. I'm gonna have to kick it up a notch in order to finish this.
Indiana Pacers
Roster For 07-08
PG - Jamaal Tinsley, Orien Green SG - Marquis Daniels SF - Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy, Shawne Williams PF - Jermaine O'Neal, Troy Murphy, Ike Diogu C - Jeff Foster, David Harrison
Picks
None
Well, the Pacers have an amazing amount of frontcourt depth, and it's solid young depth. Granger, Williams, Diogu, and Harrison are all guys with a ton of potential. The problem is that they're saddled with a few too many bad contracts, and Jamaal Tinsley isn't the answer at the point. So, what is Indiana to do? THe first order of business has to be trading Jermaine O'Neal. He wants out, and as good as he is, he's not worth $20 mil a year on a team that isn't going anywhere. The best fits in a trade would be Chicago or LA if they keep Kobe around. The problem is that the Pacers are likely going to overvalue O'Neal and demand more in a trade than anyone is willing to give. L.A. could send a package of Andrew Bynum, Kwame Brown, Vlad Radmanovic, and the #19 pick in order to get O'Neal, which would pair Kobe with a legit low-post scorer and stud defender without losing much in the way of support players. Indiana gains a promising young center, cap relief when Brown comes off the cap, and the #19 pick, with which they can grab a guard. The Bulls could offer Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Sefolosha, Chris Duhon, the #9 pick, and a sign & trade of P.J. Brown. This is a much more attractive package for the Pacers, but I think the Bulls would have to think this one over. They wouldn't give up any of their principle core, and they'd bring in exactly the type of player that they need, an efficient low-post scorer who is also a brilliant defender. Between Ben Wallace and O'Neal, I don't know if anyone would ever score on this team.
What They Should Do: Pitch the trade to the Bulls and hope they bite. That package is almost a 100% return on O'Neal. If they don't go for that, try to make a trade with LA. The main thing is that they need to make a move before O'Neal goes Kobe on them and drops a fiery trade demand. The faster they can free their cap of his contract, the faster they can rebuild around their promising core of post players. If you have to take slightly less value than you'd like for O'Neal in order to get something for him, it's worth it. It's unlikely that they'll be able to do anything about the terrible contracts of Troy Murphy or Mike Dunleavy, so they need to clear O'Neal's contract off the cap. The other move they should try to make is to sign Steve Blake with their mid-level exception (note how I keep recommending this? True point guards are a good thing guys).
What They Will Do: They'll market O'Neal around, but then chicken out because they don't get exactly the package they want in return.
L.A. Clippers
Roster For 07-08
PG - Sam Cassell, Shaun Livingston SG - Cuttino Mobley, Quinton Ross SF - Corey Maggette, Tim Thomas PF - Elton Brand, Paul Davis C - Chris Kaman, Aaron Williams
Picks
1 - 14 (14 overall) 2 - 15 (45 overall)
Say what you want about Donald Sterling, but this Clippers team is a very smartly built one. Outside of Tim Thomas (who should never ever get anything more than a 1-year deal), most everyone has reasonable contracts. However, the Shaun Livingston injury really throws things into flux, since their point guard of the future will probably miss all of next year and will most likely never be the same player he was. The consensus among experts is that the Clippers have to take a point guard at 14, whether that be Acie Law (preferable) or Javaris Crittenton. They could also look for a backup point with their second round pick, where they might be able to grab a Taurean Green or Jared Jordan. As far as post players go, they could look at Sean Williams or Jason Smith in the first round, though 14 is a bit high for either of them so they would probably try to trade down. In the second round, Ali Traore, Stephen Lasme, or Alando Tucker would be good options.
What They Should Do: Take Law. He's one of my favorite players in this draft, and he's one of the most NBA-ready players out there. Traore put on a great show at the Orlando pre-draft, and might not be around at 45, but he'd be a great pick there. Lasme is another one of my favorite sleepers, and he'd make a very solid frontcourt reserve.
What They Will Do: I can't see them not taking Law. It's the obvious pick at 14 and fills a need.
L.A. Lakers
Roster For 07-08
PG - Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic SG - Kobe Bryant, Maurice Evans SF - Vladimir Radmanovic PF - Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown, Brian Cook C - Andrew Bynum
So, the million dollar question (or, twenty-million dollar question, as the case may be) is, what do the Lakers do with Kobe Bryant? He desperately wants out, but the terms he will leave on (an Eastern conference team who can be a contender) are almost impossible to fill. Chicago meets the criteria, but it makes not sense for the Bulls to blow up their young nucleus in order to aquire Bryant. It sucks for Bryant, and it sucks for Lakers fans who have grown tired of Mr. 81, but we might just all have to get used to the idea of Kobe staying in LA. The fact is, this team is almost completely devoid of young talent to build around. Bynum is a solid young player, but a lot of experts don't even predict him as an all-star. Farmar might end up being an average point guard, the kind of guy who can lead a team filled with better parts. Luke Walton and Ronny Turiaf (both up for extension this offseason) are role players, probably solid bench guys on a championship team. That's it. On the other hand, this team is not as far as they may seem from competing. The trade I outlined above with Indiana would give this team a starting lineup of Farmar, Bryant, Walton, Odom, and O'Neal, an elite player, an all-star, and 3 decent role players. That's not a bad team, especially if Odom were to stop sleepwalking through games. They don't really have another option, since they'd be getting 25 cents on the dollar by trading Kobe right now, they just don't have any leverage.
What They Should Do: Make the trade with Indiana and try as hard as humanly possible to patch things up with Kobe (bringing O'Neal in would probably go a long way towards helping that). That's a team that can contend, and at this point it just isn't worth trying to turn things around and rebuild. If they keep the pick, they should take Gabe Pruitt, who is a local product who helps with the gaping hole at point. In the second round, Taurean Green is a possibility if they don't go with a point in the first, and other guys to watch for are Trey Johnson, Rayshawn Terry, Chris Richard, and Ramon Sessions.
What They Will Do: They'll probably waver on Bryant for the entire offseason, miss their chance to make any move, end up with him sitting out of games, and trade him for almost no value at midseason. Gotta love the NBA.
Memphis Grizzlies
Roster For 07-08
PG - Damon Stoudamire, Kyle Lowry SG - Dahntay Jones, Tarence Kinsey SF - Mike Miller, Rudy #### PF - Hakim Warrick, Brian Cardinal, Stromile Swift C - Pau Gasol, Alexander Johnson
Picks
1 - 4 (4 overall)
I think the Grizzlies are much closer to contending than most people think. They could use more depth on the wing and a real shotblocking post, but the main concern has to be at point guard. Kyle Lowry is a decent player, and I loved watching him in college, but he's not an NBA starter. The Griz have 2 options at the 4th pick, Mike Conley or Corey Brewer. Brewer is an explosive player and a great prospect, but I think the pick here has to be Conley. Elite point guards don't fall in to your lap every day (ask Atlanta about that one), and make no mistake, Conley is an elite prospect. The comparisons he draws to Tony Parker are accurate as far as his blinding quickness and ability to finish at the rim, but Conley is a much better distrubutor than Parker was early in his career (and maybe even now). He's the rare college point guard who always looked like he was in complete control of the game (and as a freshman no less!). He combines the speed of Parker with Steve Nash's superb speed control (how many times at Ohio State did we see him blow past the first defender only to slow up and evaluate things once he was in the lane). Honestly, as I'm writing this I'm starting to think I might have said the wrong thing for Atlanta, Conley is just that good. Give him a few years under NBA coaches to hone his jumpshot, and he's an all-star.
What They Should Do: Take Conley. Point guard is the hardest position in the NBA to fill, you can always look to sign a wing player later. I cannot stress enough the importance of having a pure point, especially one who comes up in your system alongside your other young guys so they can develop a rapport.
What They Will Do: This being the NBA and all, they'll probably take Brandan Wright or Yi. If this weren't so true, it would be funny.
ion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
ost scorer. Offensively, O'Neal is way overrated. He falls in love with his mid-range jumper too much , so he shoots a poor percentage for an interior player and isn't an efficient scorer. He's a good player if you don't need him to be your main option, but he's not a good enough offensive player to be a team's primary scorer.
s not his strong suit.
y to correct. He's probably never foing to be a very good defender since he's not especially quick and is undersized, but he makes up for it some by being a good rebounder.
egitimate scoring options, the Pacers finished with the league's worst offense, despite being the 10th best offensive rebounding team. Truly, this was a painful team to watch. With no first round draft picks and not a lot of cap flexibility, the Pacers were left with basically the same roster, filled with a lot of overpaid players and not a lot of young talent.
