I've been following the Houston Rockets at a distance this whole season, and I was pretty disappointed in them up until recently. I even considered dropping them from my list of contenders at midseason because they just hadn't played well at all. In fact, here's what I said about them on January 25th, 3 games after McGrady came back:

"They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system...However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing."

You know, I think 16-1 since McGrady's return might qualify as taking off. So, what's changed in the last few weeks that has Houston playing so well? Like I did a while back with Portland, I'm going to take a look at the Rockets' streak both statistically and what I've seen when I watched them.

The first thing to note is the recent play of McGrady. I've remarked multiple times on how T-Mac's ball domination and constant isolation plays were killing the Rockets' offense. That's changed since McGrady came back from his injury. He's still scoring, but not as much, and he's taking less shots. The drastic difference though is seen in his passing ability, from 4.6 APG in November to 7 APG in January. McGrady's size gives him the ability to see and pass over basically any defender he's faced with, which is deadly in Rick Adelman's offense which features a lot of back-cuts. He's still a great option to have when the clock is running down and he still has those times when he gets hot and carries the team, but more and more he's fitting into the offense and getting his teammates easy looks.

The other big thing that's immediately noticeable is the increased production from the PF spot. Luis Scola has begun to start games and get more minutes and he's doing more with them. He moves so well without the ball and he's finally figuring out Adelman's offense, so he's getting himself easy shots and converting (leading to his 58.9% shooting this month). One of the most surprising developments in the league has been emergence of Carl Landry as a legitimate contributor on a playoff team. I panned the drafting of Landry at the time, but 'm eating my words now. He's ridiculously strong and has great hands, so he finishes almost everything he gets near the rim, and he's a pretty decent mid-range shooter. Most impressive might be the way he has quickly adjusted from being the primary option in college to moving off the ball and finding open space for easy shots. He and Scola both are very good with their spacing, and they're making teams pay for helping off them. What surprises me though is that the increased minutes have come at the expense of Chuck Hayes and the Rockets haven't suffered defensively or rebounding the ball. As a result, they've been a much-improved offensive team while maintaining their solid defense.

So, what do the stats from Houston's streak tell us? Well, most notably they're averaging almost 7 more points per 100 possessions, a huge jump from where they were from the rest of the season. Why are they so much better? Immediately what jumps out are the teams' assist numbers. The Rockets are averaging almost 5 more assists per 100 possessions, and they've assisted on 66% of their made FGs during the streak vs 57.7% for the rest of the year. All that extra ball movement and their turnovers are actually down, averaging 3 less TOs per 100 possessions. That ball movement results in the increased shooting percentages and better offensive efficiency that we see. It certainly looks as though the team is getting adjusted to Adelman's offense.

Defensively, I think Houston might be playing the best defense of any team in the league right now. I'm not sure how many people realize just how good this defense is because it doesn't jump out at you as you watch them. They don't block a ton of shots or force a lot of turnovers, and if you were just watching them play your team you'd probably think your guys just had a bad shooting night. However, if you pay attention to the Rockets, you'd notice that a lot of teams seem to have "bad shooting nights" against them. It's the thing that statistics finds almost impossible to quantify in individual players, the ability to play solid D and force tough shots. Houston has a few guys who are very good at making you take a tough shot over them (Battier, Hayes, Landry), but they also play fantastic help defense, rotating well in pick and roll situations and doing a good job of "helping the helper". Lastly, of course, there's Yao, who has the ability to block or alter shots without leaving his feet, meaning that he doesn't give up rebounding position to make your shot tougher. Put it all together and you've got a really good defensive team.

So what do things look like going forward for the Rockets? Well, first of all they play their next four games at home against Washington, Memphis, Denver and Indiana before they go play at Dallas, so there's a pretty good chance that they run this streak to 16 games. More importantly, this doesn't seem to me like a team that just got hot. This is a team that has genuinely made some huge progress during the season. I think McGrady came back from injury looking to integrate himself in the offense, and that Scola is getting better and better as he adjusts to the NBA game. Combine that with the emergence of Landry and the recent acquisition of Bobby Jackson (who played under Adelman in Sacramento) and you have a deep and talented team that is improving each game. The McGrady injury is looking more and more like a blessing in disguise. It got the rest of the team sharing the ball and moving it around well in order to score, and when McGrady came back he fit in and the role players were better for the experience. Also, that's 11 less games on McGrady's back this season, meaning he should be fresher come playoff time.

To me, few teams are exhibiting the kind of offense/defense balance that Houston is showing right now, and I think they're legitimately one of the top title threats. Obviously there's almost no predicting who comes out of the West this year. However, after seeing how they've begun to play offensively, I feel more comfortable now with saying the Rockets are contenders than I was at the beginning of the season.

You know, I’ve tried to write this post like 6 times, and every time I just stall at the beginning and give it up. Maybe I’ll actually get it written this time.

Anyway, we’ve hit the half way point of the NBA season. It’s time to look back at what we’ve learned, as well as look forward to what we can expect from the rest of the season. With that in mind, lets take a look at some of the teams that I really missed on.

Memphis Grizzlies
Wow, did I miss on these guys or what? Strangely enough, a lot of what I thought would happen with them did happen. Rudy #### really blossomed in his second year, becoming a potent scorer, J.C. Navarro has been one of the best rookies in the league and has had some truly spectacular shooting performances, and Mike Conley has played very well since returning from injury. They’re actually a decent offensive team. However, where I was wrong was thinking that they would be an improved defensive team. #### hasn’t been much of a defender, even though he has all the tools for it, Kyle Lowry isn’t having nearly as much impact as last year, and most importantly, Darko has been absolutely terrible. One reason I liked them so much was because an even slightly improved Darko would give them a much-needed shot-blocking presence in the back of their defense. Instead, Darko has, amazingly, been much, much worse than he was in Orlando last year. Of course, I also though 42 or 43 wins would get you into the playoffs out West, and that doesn’t appear to be the case at this point. Oh well, they’ll at least put themselves in good position to get Mike Beasley or DeAndre Jordan in the draft.

Chicago Bulls
I, like everyone else, have been pretty stunned by the poor performance of the Bulls. Now, to some extent we probably should’ve been able to see this coming. All the talk about a Kobe trade obviously had an effect on the young guys on this team. It was also painfully obvious that Ben Wallace was declining rapidly as a player. However, there’s no way that anyone could’ve predicted the inexplicably bad play of the Bulls’ young core players. To have one young guy regress when he should be improving is one thing, but for five guys under the age of 27? It’s absolutely incredible. Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon and Thomas are all having worse seasons than last year. We’re not just talking about slightly worse either, we’re talking about them being significantly less productive. 7 of the top 8 guys on the team (with Joe Smith as the exception) are shooting worse than they were last season. It’s absolutely mind-blowing how the young Bulls have regressed. I think we’re going to see the Bulls in the playoffs at the end of this season 1) because they’re in the East, and as bad as they’ve been they’re only a game behind the Pacers for the last playoff spot right now, but also because 2) it’s absolutely unheard of for a team full of young players to take a huge step backwards like this, and I think they’ll bounce back some and be respectable by season’s end.

Portland Trailblazers
I actually kind of thought Portland would be better than most people thought they would, but I never thought they’d have this kind of success. The biggest shocker to me has been the extraordinary play of Brandon Roy. I’ll be honest, I thought Roy was a really good player when Portland drafted him, and I thought he’d make a few All-Star teams and be a really good player, but I never thought he’d be this good, this fast. He has become the unquestioned leader of the team that has the best chemistry in the league. He does all the little things and he’s a big-time clutch player, making big shots, big defensive stops and getting big rebounds. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player with a better hesitation move than Roy, he reminds me a bit of Nash in the way that he always looks like he’s completely under control. Of course, the other big reason for the Blazers’ success has been the brilliant coaching of Nate McMillan. This Blazers team has great chemistry, they run their offensive sets really well, and they use zone defenses as well as any team in the league. That’s great coaching, McMillan has got this young team executing and believing in themselves.

Those are the teams that have really surprised this year, but we’ve also learned a lot this season about the league’s elite teams. With that in mind, I’m taking another look at my list of potential contenders and cutting it down to size a bit.

My list from the preseason looked like this (in no particular order): Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Jazz, Celtics, Nuggets, Bulls, Suns

My list now (again, in no particular order): Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers

So, why did I drop the teams I did?

Bulls are obvious, I’m not going to go over them

Jazz
They can’t defend the post at all, and I can’t bring myself to pick them in a conference with Duncan, STAT, Yao, Dirk, and now Bynum. You have to defend the post, and they can’t.

Mavs
Gone unnoticed by basically everyone is the fact that the Mavs’ defense has not been good this year. This team was 2nd in the league on offense and 5th on defense last year, this year they’re 2nd on offense and 18th on defense. Add that to their playoff failures the last two years and this team screams “paper tiger” to me.

Suns
Hardest drop from the list for me. I love Nash and I think this team is tremendously talented. However, they’re a worse defensive team than last year, and they aren’t going to win a title that way. Amare continues to be a weakness defensively in the post, and Brian Skinner brings defense, but he doesn’t have any offensive skills. Kurt Thomas was so great because he could both guard bigs and step out and hit the mid-range jumper, Skinner can’t do that. I hate it, but bad defensive teams don’t win titles.

You’ll notice a common theme on why I didn’t pick any of the previous teams. To put the importance of defense in perspective, there have only been 2 teams in the modern era who have won a title without a top 10 defense, and they were the ‘95 Rockets and the ’01 Lakers (who don’t even really count because they played great defense the year before and the year after and during the playoffs with essentially the same team, and obviously didn’t care about the regular season this year). Moral of the story is that defense is really important.

You may also be wondering why the Hornets didn’t make the list. Simply put, they don’t have a bench. I would take their starting five against any other starting unit in the league, but they don’t have the depth or the experience to make a deep run, especially not if anyone (read: Peja) gets hurt. I love the team, I love Chris Paul, they’re a great story, but I don’t think this is their year.

So, why the teams that I did pick?

I’m not going over the Spurs and Celtics, you all know why they’re on that list.

Nuggets
They have two possible starters who are out indefinitely with injury (Nene and Chucky Atkins), Carmelo’s production and efficiency is down significantly from his past two seasons, and they have a serious lack of three-point shooting. Still, they’re 25-16 and first in their division. The reason is because Allen Iverson has fully embraced being a co-star with Melo and is having the most efficient season of his career, and because Marcus Camby takes this team from being a very bad defensive team to being a very good defensive team. If Atkins comes back healthy or they can add one more shooter through a trade, I think this becomes a very dangerous offensive team as well as a good defensive team, and that makes them a contender.

Rockets
They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system. As I wrote back when I blogged the season-opener between LA and Houston, McGrady dominating the ball so much absolutely kills this offense, and they often look significantly better without him on the court. However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing.

Pistons
I left them off in the preseason because I thought they were missing the tough, killer-instinct, underdog mentality that fueled their last title run. What I didn’t count on was the Celtics getting off to a historical start and really lighting a fire under the Pistons to prove that they were the best team in the East. I honestly think that Boston’s great start had a positive impact on the Pistons, that it lit a fire under them that they didn’t have last year when LeBron trampled all over them in the playoffs. They’re also getting fantastic bench production and they execute and exploit weak defenders as well as any team in the league. I still don’t think they could beat the Spurs, but I think they could beat another team from the West if San Antonio doesn’t make the finals

Lakers
This one comes with a caveat. I reserve the right to dismiss this if the post-injury Bynum we get isn’t the same as pre-injury Bynum. LA has been a MUCH better defensive team this year because Bynum has been on the floor more, has become far less foul-prone, and has rebounded a lot better than last year. The bench and the contributions of Derek Fisher have been great, but Bynum is the key. He isn’t an elite player yet by any means, but he has great hands and finishes well on offense, and he improves their defense exponentially. If he comes back playing as well as early on this season, the Lakers are a long-shot contender.

Well, this post has run on long enough, and I’m sure you’re all tired of my wordiness. The last thing I’ll leave you with is my MVP pick for the first half of the season.

MVP: LeBron James
 With all due respect to Kevin Garnett’s fantastic work in Boston and Kobe’s exceptional play and leadership (who ‘da thunk it?), this isn’t even close. Yes, I know about Boston’s 33-7 record and how KG has gotten everyone playing great defense. I repeat, the MVP race is NOT EVEN CLOSE. Lebron uses more of his team’s possessions than anyone outside of DWade, and his offensive rating this year is 12 points higher than Flash! He averages 30-8-7 with 2 steals and a block, and he shoots almost 50%. Lebron’s AST% (an estimate of the percentage of his teammates’ field goals his assists while on the court) is 6th in the league. 6th! He’s one percentage point behind Deron Williams! It’s not quite MJ numbers that we’re talking about here, but we’re getting close. LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs. He’s the MVP, Period.

Alright, that’s it for me, I finally got this post cranked out. I’ll be sharing my opinions on the All-Star team next post, which should be pretty soon, so keep a look out for that.

Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Houston Rockets

Coach: Rick Adelman
2006-2007 Record: 52-30
06-07 Expected Record: 52-30
Offensive Rating: 106.6 (14th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 100.0 (3rd in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 49.9% (15th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 90.7 (21st in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

There's no doubt that when Yao is healthy, he's the best center in the league. The problem is that he has missed 59 games over the last two seasons. You have to wonder if Yao has just been really unlucky, or if his size makes him especially injury-prone. The answer to that question could determine the fate of the Rockets' season. When he's on the floor, Yao is an elite post scorer, an excellent defender, and one of the few centers who shoots well from the line. Not only that, but he has improved every year of his career and worked with Hakeem Olajuwon this offseason. If he stays healthy, Yao is primed for an MVP-caliber season.

T-Mac really carried this team last year and took on a bigger load than he ever has in his career. Taking on that much of a load, he was a much less efficient scorer last year than he has been over the course of his career, though he had a much higher assist rate than he has ever had. The problem with T-Mac's constant back trouble isn't so much that he's missing games (though he did in 05-06), but that he gets worn down over the course of the season, and he becomes a less effective player because he stops driving and shoots from the perimeter too much. You could really tell he was ####ed up last year in the playoffs when he had a terrible series (even more striking because T-Mac has always raised his game in the playoffs). If the Rockets want to have success in the playoffs, they need to play well enough that T-Mac can take on a smaller load (~30 MPG) and rest up to be fresh for the postseason.

One thing that I think is often missed about the Rockets is that they have one of the best collections of role players in the league. Everybody knows what Shane Battier does, he's cultivated a reputation as a great spot-up shooter/help defender. However, the performances of Chuck Hayes, Luther Head and Dikembe Mutumbo are often overlooked. Hayes is an excellent rebounder and defender despite his small size. He was a big part of the Rockets' ability to force bad shots (they led the league in opponents' eFG%, despite not actually blocking a ton of shots), and he's a very strong offensive rebounder. Now, you don't really want Hayes as a starter, and the platoon of he and Juwan Howard was pretty awful (Howard was, to put it lightly, terrible). However, backing up, Luis Scola, Hayes makes a great energy guy off the bench. Head played surprisingly well in 27 MPG as a designated shooter. He'll probably take on a reduced role this year, but the minutes he played last year should help him as a contributor off the bench. I don't think a lot of people realize just how amazing Dikembe Mutumbo's season was. Nobody in basketball gave as productive a 17 minutes per game as Mutumbo did. His astounding rebound rate was second in the league, and he blocked more shots per 40 minutes than Yao did. He really saved their season when Yao went down, and you couldn't ask for a better backup center.

Luis Scola is every bit as good as he's touted to be, believe me. He has great vision for a post player, he plays hard, he can hit the mid-range jumper, and he's very skilled in the post. I think he'll thrive as a third option in Rick Adelman's up-tempo offense.

The big question mark is at point guard, where Mike James and Steve Francis will battle for the starting job. You know what you're getting with James; he's a good shooter and not a real good distributer, but at least a decent improvement over the three-point slinging Rafer Alston. Francis is a bit more interesting scenario. Now, we know Francis can play, he's not that many years removed from being one of the league's top point guards, and at 30 he's not too old to call him washed up. After being caught in the hell that was New York's backcourt mess of Starbury, Crawford and Nate Robinson, you have to wonder if Francis can be rejuvenated by coming back to Houston and not having to be "the man". If Francis comes even close to the player he used to be, the Rockets get that much scarier, and if not, it didn't cost them a whole lot to roll the dice on him.

Expect to see a lot more from Bonzi Wells this year. He had one of the best seasons of his career in Sacramento under Adelman, and should give this team even more quality depth as a guy who can score and rebound from the 3 spot.

Overview

Despite playing half the season without Yao, Houston was one of the league's best defensive teams. Despite not blocking a ton of shots (Yao and Mutumbo are the only shotblockers on the team), the Rockets held teams to a very low FG%, and most of that came from guys like Hayes and Battier who force a lot of bad shots. Houston also led the league in defensive rebound rate, so not only did teams miss a lot against them, they also didn't get many second chances. When you add Yao for a whole season, the Houston defense can only get better. On the offensive end, they definitely felt the loss of Yao and the lack of a decent point guard, as well as some stale playcalling on the part of Jeff Van Gundy. The hope in Houston is that a full season of Yao, improvement at the PG and PF positions, and the more offensive-minded Adelman can make for a top-level offense to complement that defense.

Prediction

It's all about Yao in Houston. They made the 4 seed with Yao playing only 48 games, but the load T-Mac had to take on had him worn down for the playoffs. If this team is healthy, they've got the best chance to keep the Spurs from repeating. No other team combines this kind of depth of talent with two top-tier superstars, but the season will hang on how well the team gels and if they can stay healthy.

I believe in this team. Don't ask me why, it's just a feeling. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they end up with the best record in the league next year. All the pieces are there, they just need to stay healthy.

3rd in the West - Championship Contenders

I'm loving having cable TV in the dorm room. I've watched the Team USA vs. Canada game, part of the Argentina vs. Mexico game, and the Team USA vs. Brazil game. Sure, the games involving the US aren't exactly compelling basketball, but it's interesting to see players that I don't usually get a look at, and also to see how the US players fit into a system full of stars. Some things I saw...

- If I were George Karl, I'd be trying as hard as possible to duplicate the international style of play in Denver's offense, cause Melo is a monster in the international game. He plays well off the ball and has such a versatile game that he's almost impossible to stop. Just check out these lines from the 4 US games:

16 MIN - 17 PTs
17 MIN - 22 PTs
18 MIN - 25 PTs
17 MIN - 21 PTs

That's just obscene. Seriously, I realize the competition they're playing against, but that's nasty. With a full season to mesh together, I would be very scared of the Nuggets. They have 2 elite scorers and a great defensive center, they're absolutely a championship contender.

- Olu Famutimi was the only player on Team Canada who looked remotely like he belonged on the same floor as the US players. Sam Dalembert was a complete non-factor, but Famutimi (who is currently playing in the D-League) was a dynamic player

- I think Luis Scola is going to be a huge asset for the Rockets. He's a skilled player, but he's gritty and works hard on every play. From what I saw, he has a solid jumpshot and a good passing eye for a big man. He's also much more athletic than I thought, and rebounds very well.

- Nene looked terrible. Really, really terrible. He's gained weight since the end of the NBA season, and he missed easy opportunities on multiple occasions.

- I really like Tiago Splitter. After watching him against the US, I'm shocked that he wasn't picked sooner in the draft. He's very athletic and an excellent ball-handler for a guy his size. He took Carmelo Anthony to the hoop multiple times from the elbow area, and Melo isn't lacking in the quickness department. To think of him on the Spurs a year from now is scary.

- Kobe is stunningly good when he wants to be. We all know he's the best offensive player in the league, but when he wants to be, he's an incredible defender too. The fact of the matter is that if Kobe comes out and plays hard, the Lakers are a playoff team next year, if he sulks through the season, they'll be terrible.

- I love Jason Kidd.

Other thoughts on the NBA offseason:

- Other than practically giving away Luis Scola to a division rival, I really like the Spurs' offseason. The acquisition of Ime Udoka and the signing of 2005 first round pick Ian Mahinmi, in addition to resigning basically everyone makes them look like the favorites to repeat, as well as having very solid future prospects.

- Orlando signed Adonal Foyle to replace Darko, and he'll probably give them about the same contributions they got from Darko last year, but for way less money than they'd be paying Darko. They overpaid for Rashard, but they'll definitely be better this year.

- I still think that Phoenix should've gone for KG, but other than that they've had a very solid offseason. Grant Hill was a great pickup, and he'll even help give Nash some rest because he can run the point from the SF position. D.J. Strawberry was a steal as late as they got him, I guarantee he gets some burn next year.

- The Grizzlies are my sleepers for next year. They've got great young talent at every position, and I think they'll really work in Marc Iavaroni's Phoenix-style system. I love that they went out and got Gasol's Spanish team buddy Juan Carlos Navarro.

- I didn't like Houston's draft. I hated that they passed on a bunch of very talented power forwards to reach for an undersized point guard (Aaron Brooks). However, they've had a very good offseason  overall. They took a position that was a huge weakness (PG) and made it into a strength, with Steve Francis, Mike James, and Brooks. The starter from last year Rafer "Skip 2 My Lou" Alston, will be 3rd or 4th on the depth chart. They've also significantly improved their PF position by brining in Luis Scola, Jackie Butler, and Carl Landry to replace Juwan Howard. If Yao stays healthy and McGrady can play 60-65 games and be healthy in the playoffs, they're absolutely a legit contender.

- I don't like that Dallas did nothing to shake up their team. Coming off 2 consecutive postseason chokes (Yes, I know the Warriors were a bad matchup. No, I don't care. Losing to an 8 seed is a choke), they needed to make a move, and they didn't.

- James Posey was a great pickup for Boston. They desperately needed to pick up a backup small forward, and Posey is a solid defensive player who makes perimeter shots.
 

 

 
One last note. Hoff and I are going to be finishing up the NBA Legends Competition on Wednesday. I'm thinking arguments due at 5:00 PM EST, and voting will go for 2 days and end at 5:00 PM EST on Friday. Let me know if that's an issue for you Hoff. For the rest of you, tune in Wednesday and vote for whose team of all-time greats is superior.
 

The long-awaited draft is over, so now its time to take a look at the results. It was actually a rather subdued draft until we got to the 18th pick or so, with the only real surprise being the Ray Allen trade. After that, things started going all kinds of crazy as Portland began to wheel and deal. Anyway, here's my team-by-team analysis of the draft. It's not grades, cause I don't like grades (btw, if we were to give teams a GPA based on their draft grades over time, what would Atlanta's be? 1.5? 2?). I'm going to give either a thumbs up, thumbs down, or on the fence for each team. So, starting with the Western Conference...

Dallas Mavericks - Thumbs Down

Picks - Nick Fazekas (34), Renaldas Seibutis (50), Milovan Rakovic (60)

Now, I understand that Dallas didn't have a lot to work with here, but they didn't exactly make the most of it. I'll give them the last two, cause there's not that much talent that late, but they took Fazekas, who is quite possibly the worst athlete in the draft, in front of Glen Davis and Josh McRoberts, both much better talents. I don't see Fazekas being any kind of player in the NBA, he's just too slow, and slow big guys whose trademark is their shooting don't have a great track record.

Denver Nuggets - N/A

Picks - ...

Well, that was easy

Golden State Warriors - Thumbs Up

Picks - Brandan Wright (8), Marco Belinelli (18), Stephane Lasme (46)

Big thumbs up to the Warriors, who had my second favorite draft (behind Portland's masterpiece). Not only did they manage to grab some fantastic talent, but they got rid of Jason Richardson's contract too. I questioned their selection of Bellinelli instead of Jason Smith, but it makes sense with the acquisition of Wright. Take note that there's still a possibility that Yi will end up here for a package including Wright, though Milwaukee looks like they want to keep him. Wright is a perfect player for them. He has very little range to his game, but he's money near the hoop and he's a very good shot-blocker. At worst, he's a much more talented and athletic version of Andris Biedrins. Bellinelli is a dynamic 2-guard who has great range and can slash, but he's streaky (which should mean he fits in perfectly here). Lasme was one of my favorite second round guys, and I can see him contributing immediately as an energy/defense guy for the Warriors. Very good draft.

Houston Rockets - Thumbs Down

Picks - Aaron Brooks (26), Carl Landry (31), Brad Newley (54)

I really don't get their draft. They had McRoberts and Davis staring them in the face at both 26 and 31, and they passed them both times for inferior players. Brooks was a solid sleeper, but that's only a good pick if you don't reach for it, and they reached big-time for him. What's more puzzling is that they didn't even reach for a need, they've already got Mike James and Rafer Alston at the point and a gaping hole at PF. Landry is a gritty player, but he's undersized and can't rebound. McRoberts would've been perfect here, I'm really puzzled that they passed on him.

L.A. Clippers - Thumbs Up

Picks - Al Thornton (14), Jared Jordan (45)

The Clippers basically just sat back and took the best value that was available, and they ended up with 2 really good players who are both good fits. Thornton allows them to put the disgruntled Corey Maggette on the trading block. He's a terrific athlete, and I've been saying all along he's the second coming of Shawn Marion. He was easily the best value available for them. Jordan is a pure point who should be able to back up Sam Cassell right away. His ceiling as a player isn't very high, but he's a smart guy who should be able to carve out a niche in the league. I would've gone with Taurean Green there, but I can't fault them for taking Jordan.

L.A. Lakers - Thumbs Down

Picks - Javaris Crittenton (19), Sun Yue (40), Marc Gasol (48)

This rating is contingent on them keeping Kobe Bryant, which they have repeatedly said that they want to do. Were the Lakers set on building for the future, I would be ok with the Crittenton pick. He's the ultimate high-reward point guard prospect, with a good shooting touch, suberb athleticism, and a 6'5 frame. However, he's at least 2 years away from being able to run a team, and I doubt he'll contribute much next year. I'm not sold on Yue. From what I saw of him, he's not a great athlete and he didn't really impress me that much. They did get a steal in Gasol, who most mocks had up at the top of the second round.

Memphis Grizzlies - Thumbs Up

Picks - Mike Conley (4)

Not much to say about this. They took Conley, who was the best point guard in the draft and, in my opinion, the best player on the board at #4. He got better and better as the year went on last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a big contributor this year for Memphis. He's impossibly quick and has tremendous floor vision. Absolutely the right pick for the Griz.

Minnesota Timberwolves - On The Fence

Picks - Corey Brewer (7), Chris Richard (41)

As far as their draft goes, I think they made the right moves. Brewer was the obvious pick when he fell into their laps at #7, and Richard is a great value in the second round, he would be a first rounder if he'd played anywhere but Florida. However, I can't help but feel like the Timberwolves wasted their best chance to rebuild by not getting a KG deal done. They were adamant about what they wanted in return for him, and as a result of that they miss the chance to grab draft picks in the deepest draft in recent memory. I'm fine with the picks they made, but what they didn't do with KG devalues this for me.

New Orleans Hornets - Thumbs Up

Picks - Julian Wright (13), Adam Haluska (43)

They get a thumbs up because Wright at #13 is an absolute steal. He could've easily gone 6 picks higher than that. He doesn't fit a need quite as well as Nick Young would've, but there's no question that he was the best talent left on the board. On potential alone, he's probably the 3rd best guy in the draft. He had games at Kansas where he absolutely destroyed the opposing team. If the Hornets can get some consistency out of him, this is a great pick. Haluska was a surprise, as he wasn't really on anyone's radar. Really though, once you get into the last 20 picks, everything is a stretch.

Phoenix Suns - Thumbs Down

Picks - Alando Tucker (29), D. J. Strawberry (59)

Is there anything more depressing than seeing your team trade away a first round pick for cash? Yeah, the Suns have done that 4 straight times. Not only that, but they then took Tucker at 29, who is a PF in a SF's body. Oh yeah, he can't really shoot either. They had McRoberts and Gabe Pruitt sitting there at 29, and they took Alando Tucker instead. Ugh. The Suns have really made some disappointing moves in the last 2-3 years, and it's a shame cause I think their window for winning is closing. They had the chance here to either take players or trade for players who could bolster a championship level team, and they blew it. I do like the D.J. Strawberry pick at 59 though. He'll carve out a spot in the league as a lock-down defender.

Portland Trail Blazers - Thumbs Way Up

Picks - Greg Oden (1), Rudy Fernandez (24), Petteri Koponen (30), Josh McRoberts (37), Taurean Green (52)

Not only did the Blazers make an absolute killing with their picks but they also managed to bring another piece over in the Zach Randolph trade, Channing Frye. This is the best draft I've ever seen a team have. They drafted a franchise center in Oden, they got rid of head-case Randolph and his monster contract and brought in another good young big in Frye, they drafted two lottery-level talents in Fernandez and Koponen who will continue to mature overseas (something they had to do with all the guys they were bringing in with this draft), they got the steal of the draft in McRoberts at 37 (who is a perfect complementary post guy and also a good friend of Oden's), and they picked up Green about 20 spots later than most people had him ranked. That, my friends, is one heck of a draft. Here's the really scary thing about this team. By trading Randolph's contract for Francis's shorter deal, the Blazers made sure that they will be well under the cap in 2 years when guys like Aldridge and Roy start signing extensions. They've done so well building with young talent, and it's entirely possible that they will be able to keep all of it. Can anybody in the league match the young talent on their frontline with Oden, Aldridge, Frye, and McRoberts? This team is ridiculously scary.

Sacramento Kings - Thumbs Down

Picks - Spencer Hawes (10)

It's not that I don't think Hawes is a bad player. He's probably more-or-less the next Brad Miller, and Miller has had a very solid career with a few All-Star games tossed in there. However, with all the rebuilding that Sacramento has to do, they needed a high-ceiling kind of guy, and Hawes isn't it. Julian Wright would've been the much better pick here.

San Antonio Spurs - Thumbs Up

Picks - Tiago Splitter (28), Marcus Williams (33), Giorgos Printezis (58)

It's just not fair sometimes. The best team in the league adds a lottery-level talent who will wait a year before coming over. Splitter was a perfect fit for them, and they'll be reaping the benefits in two years. Williams is a great prospect with a ton of potential, but he never put it together in college. I was a little surprised that they didn't go with Derrik Byars, but if anyone can get Williams to put things together, it's the Spurs.

Seattle Supersonics - Thumbs Up

Picks - Kevin Durant (2), Jeff Green (5)

Big props to Seattle for being gutsy with their moves. Trading Ray Allen wasn't even something I was thinking about, but it makes a lot of sense. The word from Seattle is that they want to try and resign Rashard Lewis and be able to throw Green, Durant, and Lewis out there all at once. It's a remarkable idea, and I think that they could pull it off. There are very few players in the league versatile and athletic enough to run the 2,3,and 4 spots, but these guys could do it. Can you imagine trying to match up with that? Anyway, even if they don't bring Lewis back, Green is a great compliment to Durant. Overlooked in the Allen for Green deal is that they also brought in Delonte West, who is a solid player and should be the starter at the point for them next year.

Utah Jazz - Thumbs Up

Picks - Morris Almond (25), Kyrylo Fesenko (38)

I have no opinion on Fesenko, but Almond was a great pick at 25. He was obviously the best talent left on the board, and he fills the Jazz's need for a perimeter shooter. Considering where they were picking, the Jazz did a solid job.

Just as a final note, is anyone else as excited as I am that Ray Allen and Allen Ray are on the same team? I've been waiting for this since I learned that Villanova was bringing in a freshman named Allen Ray. It's fate, it had to happen, the basketball gods brought it about.

Golden State Warriors

Roster For 07-08

PG - Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, Sarunas Jasikevicus
SG - Jason Richardson, Stephen Jackson
SF - Al Harrington
PF - Andris Biedrins
C - Adonal Foyle, Patrick O'Bryant

Picks

1 - 18 (18 overall)
2 - 6 (36 overall)
2 - 16 (46 overall)

The Warriors are in a really interesting place right now. On the one hand, they just completed a great end to their season that got everybody excited about Golden State basketball again. On the other hand, they've got a lot of bad contracts and guys who are not very dependable (Stephen Jackson, Baron Davis with his injury history). They've also got a very unique style of play, and Nellieball requires a much different lineup than most teams. I was a little puzzled about how I felt about the Warriors. My initial thought is to try and trade Davis to someone like Atlanta in order to score a draft pick or some young talent. Baron's value is never going to be higher than it is now, they've got a good replacement being groomed in Ellis, and he's a risky player to have on your team. However, the Warriors have had tremendous success when they're clicking, they keep most of their core together, and they've got 3 draft picks to build even more. Reports are that Golden State is desperately trying to move up in the draft to get Yi, and that they're also looking at Jason Smith with 18 if they can't get Yi.

What They Should Do: Resign Mickael Pietrus and draft Smith at 18. The Warriors are one of the most unpredictable teams in the league, but when they're on they might be the toughest matchup in the league. Add a few draft picks who can contribute immediately, and you've got a team that has the potential to make a run if they get hot. Smith and Yi are very comprable players, but Smith is more likely to contribute immediately as Yi will have to adjust to a culture shift and get stronger before he's a solid contributor. I'm not as big on Yi as most people, and I don't think it's worth what they'd have to give up to move up when they can get a pretty comprable player in Smith. With the second round picks, they could look at an athletic guy like Wilson Chandler or a proven commodity like Jared Dudley. With their final pick, a great fit would be Russell Carter, who is one of my favorite sleepers in this draft.

What They Will Do: They'll probably move up to get Yi, which isn't a bad move, as he's a very solid prospect who would be a great fit in Golden State.

Houston Rockets

Roster For 07-08

PG - Mike James, Rafer Alston, John Lucas, Vassilis Spanoulis
SG - Tracy McGrady, Luther Head, Bob Sura, Kirk Snyder
SF - Shane Battier
PF - Steve Novak
C - Yao Ming

Picks

1 - 26 (26 overall)

Well, if it weren't obvious from that roster, the Rockets need some frontcourt depth. The most important issue at this point is to resign Chuck Hayes and Dikembe Mutumbo to shore up their frontcourt. In addition, they should try to use their mid-level exception to bring in a veteran like Grant Hill or Chris Webber. At 26, there are a few guys that I really like for them. Marco Bellinelli and Derrick Byars are both options to come in and play at the 3; I particularly like Bellinelli with his experience and shooting touch. The other option is Glen Davis or Josh McRoberts, both solid complementary players at the 4 position.

What They Should Do: Resign Hayes and Mutumbo, and go for Hill if they can get him, Webber if they can't. For their pick, I would rate them Bellinelli, Davis, McRoberts, Byars.

What They Will Do: I can't see what else they can do, they don't have a lot of options this offseason.

I remember reading an article in Sports Illustrated in 2001 that was all about the new generation of players that was changing the face of the playoffs. The group of Vince Carter, Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Tracy Mcgrady, Baron Davis, Kevin Garnett and the rest were entering the peak of their career and promising to give us compelling matchups for the rest of the decade. This was the dynamic group of players who would fill the void left by the Jordan generation, who were all either retired or soon to retire (Barkley, Stockton, Malone, Hardaway, Reggie, Pippen). Fast forward to now. We're on the other side of most of these players' prime years, and between injuries, dissappointing performances, and managerial incompetence, that generation has left us mostly dissappointed. The decade has been dominated by Shaq, the Pistons' team-oriented style, and the one star of this generation who has lived up to his billing, Tim Duncan. As the torch seems to be passing to the next wave of stars (Lebron, Wade, Melo, Parker, Bosh), its time to take a look at where there players stand in the grand scheme of things. What is the historical legacy of this group, which popularized jumping to the pros after 1 year or just straight out of high school.

In 1996, the NBA came out with a list of the 50 greatest players in its history. That was when most of these guys were just starting their careers. Of those 50, only Shaq is still an active player. So, the question is, who from this generation of players deserves a spot on that list? Keep in mind, we're not just talking about who's going to be in the Hall of Fame. We're talking about the best of the best, the guys who you're going to look back on in 20 years and be proud to tell your kids/grandkids, "yeah, I saw him play". The guys we choose have to be good enough to knock one of the guys on that list off. How will this generation be remembered? Who deserves to be called "the greatest"?

1) Tim Duncan, PF

746 GP, 50.9% FG, 68% FT, 11.9 RPG, 3.2 APG, 2.4 BPG, 21.8 PPG

There should be absolutely no doubt about this one. He'll go down in history as the best power forward ever, and he's one of the two most dominant players of the decade. He's unarguably one of the top 50, and you can certainly make a case for him being top 10.

2) Kobe Bryant, SG

784 GP, 45.3% FG, 33.7% 3PT, 83.8% FT, 5.2 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, 24.6 PPG

Along with Duncan, I think he's the only unarguable inclusion on this list. When taking into account the era that Wilt played in, Kobe might be the greatest pure scorer of all time. Whether you love him or hate him (there seems to be no middle ground), you have to be in awe of his brilliance. The most talented player in the league, bar none.

3) Kevin Garnett, PF

927 GP, 49.1% FG, 78% FT, 11.4 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.7 BPG, 20.5 PPG

He will always be remembered for breaking open the HS to pro floodgates and for his landmark contract with the Wolves. The verdict is still out as to whether he will always be remembered as the guy who couldn't quite get it done. Regardless of whether or not Garnett ever does get his ring, he's still proven to be a remarkable basketball player. I'm willing to overlook his playoff struggles in light of his being the most versatile player ever to play the game. He's been stuck on a bad team for the past few years, but it wasn't long ago that we were debating whether he or Duncan was the better player.

4) Allen Iverson, PG/SG

747 GP, 41.8 MPG, 44.2% FG, 31.1 3PT, 77.7% FT, 3.9 RPG, 6.2 APG, 2.3 SPG, 27.9 PPG

I went back and forth on this one because I find it very hard to look at AI's career objectively. He's one of the most prolific scorers of all time, but he's certainly not the most efficient scorer ever to play. He's been criticized for his attitude towards practice and he's been criticized for the amount of shots he takes. However, he's one of the most competitive players in the game and plays completely without fear. To watch Iverson is to watch heart triumph over stature. At the end of the day, his amazing ability to score at a mere 6 feet tall and his playoff run where he nearly single-handedly carried the Sixers to the finals are enough for him to make the list.

On the Brink (likely Hall of Famers, but not top 50)

Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Steve Nash

Dirk Nowitzki

Nowitzki deserves a special note because I think that more than anyone, he has the potential to jump up this list. He's really just entered his prime as a player and has hit a turning point in his career after the first round loss to the Warriors this year. His place in history will be determined by how he responds to the accusations that he's a weak player.