I've been trying for the last few months to get the nickname "the Hammer" stuck on Dwight Howard, but that's over now. Make no mistake, Dwight Howard is Superman.
We've just gotten the first iconic moment in a career that promises to be full of them. On a night when he actually had two better dunks, the Superman Dunk will be remembered for the way Howard galvanized the crowd and put on display just how freakish an athlete he is. Whatever you think about the dunk/non-dunk (yes, I know he didn't really dunk it), it was a stunning display of athleticism, and it had the rest of the All-Stars going nuts.
In case you missed it guys, the dunk contest is back. The only contests that immediately come to mind as being as good as this one are the original ABA Dr. J vs David "Skywalker" Thompson, MJ vs. Dominique and Vince Carter completely blowing everyone away in 2000.
Jamario Moon and Rudy #### actually had some really quality dunks, but nobody noticed because Green and Howard set the bar so high. Rudy's first dunk was basically the same as the 2nd dunk that Jordan threw down in that '88 contest, only Rudy finished with just his left hand, and his second dunk was similar to Green's dunk from last year, only with a higher degree of difficulty. Moon's left-handed free throw line dunk was extremely impressive, only he sabotaged himself by setting the tape up. Just think what he might have been able to do if he'd practiced that dunk.
Green's cupcake dunk was mind-blowing and incredibly entertaining, but suffered the same problem that Howard's Sticker Dunk did last year, the judges just couldn't see it properly. Great dunk and great showmanship though, that's one that people will remember for a while. The barefoot dunk was great, but he would've been better off combining that with the lob over the backboard. He suffered from doing two similar dunks back-to-back.
However, the night belonged to Howard, who did things that big men just aren't supposed to be able to do. For his first dunk, he basically took what Andre Iguadola did, then added an insane degree of difficulty by tossing the ball himself and then finishing with a left-handed windmill. Um...wow. The Superman Dunk was so ridiculous that I can't get over it. To see a guy that big jump that high and then just throw the ball down into the basket...just awesome. He had everybody in the building on their feet in disbelief. His third dunk, to me, was the most impressive. To be able to catch a ball off the bounce with your left hand, tap it off the backboard, then catch it with your right hand and stuff it through is just an awesome display of athleticism and coordination. For a 7-foot center to be able to do that? Unreal. We throw the term "freak" around a lot in sports when describing athleticism, but Dwight Howard truly is a freak. He's like something from another planet...you might even say he's like "The Man of Tomorrow".
Well, I wanted to make this post a while ago, but I've been fighting sickness for the last two weeks, so it's slightly belated. Anyway, I'm gonna give you my All-Star Teams, and explain to you why some of the guys you might expect to be there aren't.
First of all, note that this is not a lifetime achievement award. I do not care what you did last year, nor do I care what you might be expected to do for the rest of the year. Performance is what matters.
Second, while I do consider your team's record, it's not a huge factor to me. I'm not going to penalize you for having crappy teammates.
Finally, I'm going to list some relevant statistics for each player. These are not going to be PPG or RPG statistics, cause frankly those are usually poor measures of performance and you can find them anywhere. Because I'm going to be listing some statistics that some of you might not recognize, I'll give you a quick synopsis of some of them.
eFG (effective field goal percentage) - This is simply field goal percentage, except it gives extra credit for three-pointers.
ORtg (Offensive Rating) - A measure of how efficient an offensive player is. It's a ridiculously complicated formula, but basically it estimates how many points a player creates per every 100 possessions they use.
USG% (Usage %)- The estimated percentage of the team's possessions that a player uses while they're on the floor. As a general rule, as USG% goes up, ORtg goes down (harder to be efficient the more you're asked to do). Point Guards often have lower USG% (around 20%), whereas high-volume scorers (DWade, LeBron, Kobe, etc.) usually have a USG% of 30% or more.
AST% - An estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals that you assist on while you're on the floor.
TO% - estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions. Anything below 10 is outstanding, over 20% is usually pretty bad.
REB% - An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds that a player grabbed while he was on the floor.
(most statistics courtesy of basketballreference.com)
That said, on to the teams.
xphoenix87's Eastern Conference All-Stars
Starting Lineup
Guard-Chauncey Billups (53.4% eFG, 90.4% FT, 22.5 USG%, 128 ORtg, 34.6 AST%, 12.7 TO%) One of the steadiest players in the league, and one of the most ruthlessly efficient offensive players out there. He's a nightmare to match up against for most teams because he's so good at backing down opposing point guards and abusing them with short turnaround jumpers or headfaking them into fouling him. Billups was an easy pick.
Guard-Jose Calderon (58.7% eFG, 91.7% FT, 130 ORtg, 44.8 AST%, 13.8 TO%, 5.58 A/T) I know, he didn't even make the All-Star team, I must be out of my mind to have him as a starter, right? Well, lets look at him versus the actual All-Star starters, Jason Kidd and Dwayne Wade. There's been a lot of hype about Kidd and his near-triple double pace this season, but how about the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.
Forward-LeBron (33.6 USG%, 116 ORtg, 51.3% eFG, 37.8 AST%, 11 TO%, 11.8 REB%) Any argument that LeBron should be the starter here? Didn't think so, moving on.
Forward-KG (24.2 USG%, 120 ORtg, 55.1% eFG, 17.2 REB%, 20.5 AST%) More than any statistic, the impact of Garnett is most pronounced in these numbers.
106.9 24
98 38
The first two numbers are Boston's defensive rating and win total from last year. The second two are those same numbers from this year. Defensive impact has been notoriously tricky to quantify, but the effect of Garnett on Boston has been palpable.
Center-Dwight Howard (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 21.6 REB%, 60.2% eFG) Again, anyone want to argue this? Howard is easily the most dominant center in the conference, if not the entire league.
Bench
Guard-Dwyane Wade (33 USG%, 103 ORtg, 35.8 AST%, 9 FTA/36, 75.6% FT, 46.8% eFG) Is he having a down year? Yeah, sure, but he's still Dwyane Wade. He still gets to the line as well as anyone in the league, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.
Guard-Rip Hamilton (24.7 USG%, 114 ORtg, 53.1% eFG, 23 AST%, 10.4 TO%, 81.5% FT) Honestly, I searched really hard to find someone who deserved this spot, maybe someone that everyone else had missed. No dice. As I mentioned above, the guards in the East are so bad that I'm really kind of reaching here (as opposed to the West, which is overflowing with candidates). In the end, nobody I looked at was having a better year than Hamilton. A lot of people like Ray Allen here because of how well Boston has played, but I'm not buying that, and Rip is having a better year. Hamilton is an extremely efficient scorer, and might be the league's best at using off the ball screens (It's between he and Kevin Martin IMO). In addition, he's also a very solid defensive player (as with most Pistons players).
Forward-Caron Butler (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 50.8% eFG, 91.3% FT, 20.5 AST%) Butler supposedly made "The Jump" last year when he made it into his first All-Star game. Well, if he was jumping last year, he's flying this year. His turnovers are down, his assists are way up, his shooting percentages are way up, and he's carrying the Wizards in Gilbert Arenas' absence. His mid-range game has always been among the best in the league, but this year he has really increased his range, shooting 36.5% from long-range.
Forward-Paul Pierce (25.7 USG%, 110 ORtg, 49.6% eFG, 22.8 AST%, 8.8 REB%) I was trying to decide between Pierce and Richard Jefferson here, and really the difference between the two is minimal. Their stat profiles are so similar that it's almost impossible to chose between them. Jefferson is putting up better pure scoring numbers, but Pierce is the better distributor and rebounder. In the end, it comes down to Pierce being the superior defensive player and more proven star.
Center-Chris Bosh (28.6 USG%, 117 ORtg, 14.9 REB%, 10.2 TO%, 48.9% eFG, 85.6% FT) Even if Bosh didn't actually deserve this, he's really the only choice. At any rate, Bosh is having the best season of his career. He's often the forgotten 4th member of that LeBron, Wade, Melo draft class, but he has absolutel y kept himself at that level. He hasn't yet become a dominant defensive force, but he's definitely improving as a disruptive force who can defend without fouling. Offensively, he rivals Garnett and Duncan as the best face-up post men in the league. He's got a great jab step, and he's so quick and so long that he's almost impossible to guard without help. That quickness means he gets to the line a TON, and his FT% has shot up to 85% this season. He's also got great hands, makes quick decisions, and picks his spots well, leading to very low turnover numbers for a guy his size who has such a high usage rate.
Wild Card #1-Richard Jefferson (27.5 ORtg, 111 ORtg, 48.5% eFG, 80.4% FT) If I struggled with Jefferson vs. Pierce above, it didn't take a lot of thought to put him here. A bit overlooked in the Nets' collapse, Jefferson is completing his transformation from a role player who finished Jason Kidd alley-oops into the team's star-quality first option. It isn't the most efficient year of Jefferson's career, but he's taking on a much bigger role in the offense, and he's thriving.
Wild Card #2-Josh Smith (26.5 USG%, 100 ORtg, 13 REB%, 45.3% eFG, 20 AST%, 3.4 BPG, 2 SPG) There were three people I considered here: Smith, Antwan Jamison, and Tayshaun Prince. Jamison is having a solid year, and he's rebounding than he ever has in his career. He doesn't make many mistakes (4th lowest TO% in the league), but the fact that he shoots 30% from the field really hurts him. He also doesn't play defense, and he just isn't a good enough offensive player to make up for that and get on the team for me. Prince is a fantastic player who often gets overlooked in Detroit, but he's a matchup nightmare with his length and versatility, and he's one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. However, if I'm going to go with a defensive force, it's got to be Smith. He might not have much polish as an offensive player yet, but Smith is the rare player who can be a dominating defensive force against multiple positions. Like Andrei Kirilenko, he can match up with wing defenders, but he's also a force defending the rim and drifting into passing lanes. The Hawks are 9th in the league in defense, and the biggest reason is Smith's game-altering presence.
Some guys of note on the outside looking in
Kidd - People get wrapped up in the whole triple-double thing, but the fact is that Kidd has really fallen off as an offensive player. He can't finish around the rim at all anymore, and he's turning the ball over at a prodigious rate. People need to start getting used to the idea that the 34-year old Kidd may not be an elite point guard any more.
Jamison - I went over this above. Very good offensive player, very bad defensive player.
Michael Redd - What I said about Jamison, only more pronounced. To say that he plays matador defense is an understatement.
Hedo Turkoglu - Hedo is a fantastic story this year as he has really improved his play and become a key part of Orlando's success. He's had some truly great moments at the ends of games too. However, I think he's much more a top-tier role player than he is an all-star. He isn't a good defender, and his offensive numbers are good, but not great.
Joe Johnson - He's only noteworthy because he's on the actual all-star team. In reality he's having his worst season as a Hawk, and doesn't deserve to be on the team.
Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.
Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.
I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-####, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.
In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.
Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.
Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.
Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.
It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.
Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.