Well, I wanted to make this post a while ago, but I've been fighting sickness for the last two weeks, so it's slightly belated. Anyway, I'm gonna give you my All-Star Teams, and explain to you why some of the guys you might expect to be there aren't.

First of all, note that this is not a lifetime achievement award. I do not care what you did last year, nor do I care what you might be expected to do for the rest of the year. Performance is what matters.

Second, while I do consider your team's record, it's not a huge factor to me. I'm not going to penalize you for having crappy teammates.

Finally, I'm going to list some relevant statistics for each player. These are not going to be PPG or RPG statistics, cause frankly those are usually poor measures of performance and you can find them anywhere. Because I'm going to be listing some statistics that some of you might not recognize, I'll give you a quick synopsis of some of them.

eFG (effective field goal percentage) - This is simply field goal percentage, except it gives extra credit for three-pointers.

ORtg (Offensive Rating) - A measure of how efficient an offensive player is. It's a ridiculously complicated formula, but basically it estimates how many points a player creates per every 100 possessions they use.

USG% (Usage %)- The estimated percentage of the team's possessions that a player uses  while they're on the floor. As a general rule, as USG% goes up, ORtg goes down (harder to be efficient the more you're asked to do). Point Guards often have lower USG% (around 20%), whereas high-volume scorers (DWade, LeBron, Kobe, etc.) usually have a USG% of 30% or more.

AST% - An estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals that you assist on while you're on the floor.

TO% - estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions. Anything below 10 is outstanding, over 20% is usually pretty bad.

REB% - An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds that a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

(most statistics courtesy of basketballreference.com)

That said, on to the teams.

xphoenix87's Eastern Conference All-Stars

Starting Lineup

Guard-Chauncey Billups (53.4% eFG, 90.4% FT, 22.5 USG%, 128 ORtg, 34.6 AST%, 12.7 TO%)
One of the steadiest players in the league, and one of the most ruthlessly efficient offensive players out there. He's a nightmare to match up against for most teams because he's so good at backing down opposing point guards and abusing them with short turnaround jumpers or headfaking them into fouling him. Billups was an easy pick.

Guard-Jose Calderon (58.7% eFG, 91.7% FT, 130 ORtg, 44.8 AST%, 13.8 TO%, 5.58 A/T)
I know, he didn't even make the All-Star team, I must be out of my mind to have him as a starter, right? Well, lets look at him versus the actual All-Star starters, Jason Kidd and Dwayne Wade. There's been a lot of hype about Kidd and his near-triple double pace this season, but how about the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.

Forward-LeBron (33.6 USG%, 116 ORtg, 51.3% eFG, 37.8 AST%, 11 TO%, 11.8 REB%)
Any argument that LeBron should be the starter here? Didn't think so, moving on.

Forward-KG (24.2 USG%, 120 ORtg, 55.1% eFG, 17.2 REB%, 20.5 AST%)
More than any statistic, the impact of Garnett is most pronounced in these numbers.

106.9
24

98
38

The first two numbers are Boston's defensive rating and win total from last year. The second two are those same numbers from this year. Defensive impact has been notoriously tricky to quantify, but the effect of Garnett on Boston has been palpable.

Center-Dwight Howard (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 21.6 REB%, 60.2% eFG)
Again, anyone want to argue this? Howard is easily the most dominant center in the conference, if not the entire league.

Bench

Guard-Dwyane Wade (33 USG%, 103 ORtg, 35.8 AST%, 9 FTA/36, 75.6% FT, 46.8% eFG)
Is he having a down year? Yeah, sure, but he's still Dwyane Wade. He still gets to the line as well as anyone in the league, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.

Guard-Rip Hamilton (24.7 USG%, 114 ORtg, 53.1% eFG, 23 AST%, 10.4 TO%, 81.5% FT)
Honestly, I searched really hard to find someone who deserved this spot, maybe someone that everyone else had missed. No dice. As I mentioned above, the guards in the East are so bad that I'm really kind of reaching here (as opposed to the West, which is overflowing with candidates). In the end, nobody I looked at was having a better year than Hamilton. A lot of people like Ray Allen here because of how well Boston has played, but I'm not buying that, and Rip is having a better year. Hamilton is an extremely efficient scorer, and might be the league's best at using off the ball screens (It's between he and Kevin Martin IMO). In addition, he's also a very solid defensive player (as with most Pistons players).

Forward-Caron Butler (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 50.8% eFG, 91.3% FT, 20.5 AST%)
Butler supposedly made "The Jump" last year when he made it into his first All-Star game. Well, if he was jumping last year, he's flying this year. His turnovers are down, his assists are way up, his shooting percentages are way up, and he's carrying the Wizards in Gilbert Arenas' absence. His mid-range game has always been among the best in the league, but this year he has really increased his range, shooting 36.5% from long-range.

Forward-Paul Pierce (25.7 USG%, 110 ORtg, 49.6% eFG, 22.8 AST%, 8.8 REB%)
I was trying to decide between Pierce and Richard Jefferson here, and really the difference between the two is minimal. Their stat profiles are so similar that it's almost impossible to chose between them. Jefferson is putting up better pure scoring numbers, but Pierce is the better distributor and rebounder. In the end, it comes down to Pierce being the superior defensive player and more proven star.

Center-Chris Bosh (28.6 USG%, 117 ORtg, 14.9 REB%, 10.2 TO%, 48.9% eFG, 85.6% FT)
Even if Bosh didn't actually deserve this, he's really the only choice. At any rate, Bosh is having the best season of his career. He's often the forgotten 4th member of that LeBron, Wade, Melo draft class, but he has absolutel
y kept himself at that level. He hasn't yet become a dominant defensive force, but he's definitely improving as a disruptive force who can defend without fouling. Offensively, he rivals Garnett and Duncan as the best face-up post men in the league. He's got a great jab step, and he's so quick and so long that he's almost impossible to guard without help. That quickness means he gets to the line a TON, and his FT% has shot up to 85% this season. He's also got great hands, makes quick decisions, and picks his spots well, leading to very low turnover numbers for a guy his size who has such a high usage rate.

Wild Card #1-Richard Jefferson (27.5 ORtg, 111 ORtg, 48.5% eFG, 80.4% FT)
If I struggled with Jefferson vs. Pierce above, it didn't take a lot of thought to put him here. A bit overlooked in the Nets' collapse, Jefferson is completing his transformation from a role player who finished Jason Kidd alley-oops into the team's star-quality first option. It isn't the most efficient year of Jefferson's career, but he's taking on a much bigger role in the offense, and he's thriving.

Wild Card #2-Josh Smith (26.5 USG%, 100 ORtg, 13 REB%, 45.3% eFG, 20 AST%, 3.4 BPG, 2 SPG)
There were three people I considered here: Smith, Antwan Jamison, and Tayshaun Prince. Jamison is having a solid year, and he's rebounding than he ever has in his career. He doesn't make many mistakes (4th lowest TO% in the league), but the fact that he shoots 30% from the field really hurts him. He also doesn't play defense, and he just isn't a good enough offensive player to make up for that and get on the team for me. Prince is a fantastic player who often gets overlooked in Detroit, but he's a matchup nightmare with his length and versatility, and he's one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. However, if I'm going to go with a defensive force, it's got to be Smith. He might not have much polish as an offensive player yet, but Smith is the rare player who can be a dominating defensive force against multiple positions. Like Andrei Kirilenko, he can match up with wing defenders, but he's also a force defending the rim and drifting into passing lanes. The Hawks are 9th in the league in defense, and the biggest reason is Smith's game-altering presence.

Some guys of note on the outside looking in

Kidd - People get wrapped up in the whole triple-double thing, but the fact is that Kidd has really fallen off as an offensive player. He can't finish around the rim at all anymore, and he's turning the ball over at a prodigious rate. People need to start getting used to the idea that the 34-year old Kidd may not be an elite point guard any more.

Jamison - I went over this above. Very good offensive player, very bad defensive player.

Michael Redd - What I said about Jamison, only more pronounced. To say that he plays matador defense is an understatement.

Hedo Turkoglu - Hedo is a fantastic story this year as he has really improved his play and become a key part of Orlando's success. He's had some truly great moments at the ends of games too. However, I think he's much more a top-tier role player than he is an all-star. He isn't a good defender, and his offensive numbers are good, but not great.

Joe Johnson - He's only noteworthy because he's on the actual all-star team. In reality he's having his worst season as a Hawk, and doesn't deserve to be on the team.

Western Conference team coming soon

You know, I’ve tried to write this post like 6 times, and every time I just stall at the beginning and give it up. Maybe I’ll actually get it written this time.

Anyway, we’ve hit the half way point of the NBA season. It’s time to look back at what we’ve learned, as well as look forward to what we can expect from the rest of the season. With that in mind, lets take a look at some of the teams that I really missed on.

Memphis Grizzlies
Wow, did I miss on these guys or what? Strangely enough, a lot of what I thought would happen with them did happen. Rudy #### really blossomed in his second year, becoming a potent scorer, J.C. Navarro has been one of the best rookies in the league and has had some truly spectacular shooting performances, and Mike Conley has played very well since returning from injury. They’re actually a decent offensive team. However, where I was wrong was thinking that they would be an improved defensive team. #### hasn’t been much of a defender, even though he has all the tools for it, Kyle Lowry isn’t having nearly as much impact as last year, and most importantly, Darko has been absolutely terrible. One reason I liked them so much was because an even slightly improved Darko would give them a much-needed shot-blocking presence in the back of their defense. Instead, Darko has, amazingly, been much, much worse than he was in Orlando last year. Of course, I also though 42 or 43 wins would get you into the playoffs out West, and that doesn’t appear to be the case at this point. Oh well, they’ll at least put themselves in good position to get Mike Beasley or DeAndre Jordan in the draft.

Chicago Bulls
I, like everyone else, have been pretty stunned by the poor performance of the Bulls. Now, to some extent we probably should’ve been able to see this coming. All the talk about a Kobe trade obviously had an effect on the young guys on this team. It was also painfully obvious that Ben Wallace was declining rapidly as a player. However, there’s no way that anyone could’ve predicted the inexplicably bad play of the Bulls’ young core players. To have one young guy regress when he should be improving is one thing, but for five guys under the age of 27? It’s absolutely incredible. Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon and Thomas are all having worse seasons than last year. We’re not just talking about slightly worse either, we’re talking about them being significantly less productive. 7 of the top 8 guys on the team (with Joe Smith as the exception) are shooting worse than they were last season. It’s absolutely mind-blowing how the young Bulls have regressed. I think we’re going to see the Bulls in the playoffs at the end of this season 1) because they’re in the East, and as bad as they’ve been they’re only a game behind the Pacers for the last playoff spot right now, but also because 2) it’s absolutely unheard of for a team full of young players to take a huge step backwards like this, and I think they’ll bounce back some and be respectable by season’s end.

Portland Trailblazers
I actually kind of thought Portland would be better than most people thought they would, but I never thought they’d have this kind of success. The biggest shocker to me has been the extraordinary play of Brandon Roy. I’ll be honest, I thought Roy was a really good player when Portland drafted him, and I thought he’d make a few All-Star teams and be a really good player, but I never thought he’d be this good, this fast. He has become the unquestioned leader of the team that has the best chemistry in the league. He does all the little things and he’s a big-time clutch player, making big shots, big defensive stops and getting big rebounds. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player with a better hesitation move than Roy, he reminds me a bit of Nash in the way that he always looks like he’s completely under control. Of course, the other big reason for the Blazers’ success has been the brilliant coaching of Nate McMillan. This Blazers team has great chemistry, they run their offensive sets really well, and they use zone defenses as well as any team in the league. That’s great coaching, McMillan has got this young team executing and believing in themselves.

Those are the teams that have really surprised this year, but we’ve also learned a lot this season about the league’s elite teams. With that in mind, I’m taking another look at my list of potential contenders and cutting it down to size a bit.

My list from the preseason looked like this (in no particular order): Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Jazz, Celtics, Nuggets, Bulls, Suns

My list now (again, in no particular order): Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers

So, why did I drop the teams I did?

Bulls are obvious, I’m not going to go over them

Jazz
They can’t defend the post at all, and I can’t bring myself to pick them in a conference with Duncan, STAT, Yao, Dirk, and now Bynum. You have to defend the post, and they can’t.

Mavs
Gone unnoticed by basically everyone is the fact that the Mavs’ defense has not been good this year. This team was 2nd in the league on offense and 5th on defense last year, this year they’re 2nd on offense and 18th on defense. Add that to their playoff failures the last two years and this team screams “paper tiger” to me.

Suns
Hardest drop from the list for me. I love Nash and I think this team is tremendously talented. However, they’re a worse defensive team than last year, and they aren’t going to win a title that way. Amare continues to be a weakness defensively in the post, and Brian Skinner brings defense, but he doesn’t have any offensive skills. Kurt Thomas was so great because he could both guard bigs and step out and hit the mid-range jumper, Skinner can’t do that. I hate it, but bad defensive teams don’t win titles.

You’ll notice a common theme on why I didn’t pick any of the previous teams. To put the importance of defense in perspective, there have only been 2 teams in the modern era who have won a title without a top 10 defense, and they were the ‘95 Rockets and the ’01 Lakers (who don’t even really count because they played great defense the year before and the year after and during the playoffs with essentially the same team, and obviously didn’t care about the regular season this year). Moral of the story is that defense is really important.

You may also be wondering why the Hornets didn’t make the list. Simply put, they don’t have a bench. I would take their starting five against any other starting unit in the league, but they don’t have the depth or the experience to make a deep run, especially not if anyone (read: Peja) gets hurt. I love the team, I love Chris Paul, they’re a great story, but I don’t think this is their year.

So, why the teams that I did pick?

I’m not going over the Spurs and Celtics, you all know why they’re on that list.

Nuggets
They have two possible starters who are out indefinitely with injury (Nene and Chucky Atkins), Carmelo’s production and efficiency is down significantly from his past two seasons, and they have a serious lack of three-point shooting. Still, they’re 25-16 and first in their division. The reason is because Allen Iverson has fully embraced being a co-star with Melo and is having the most efficient season of his career, and because Marcus Camby takes this team from being a very bad defensive team to being a very good defensive team. If Atkins comes back healthy or they can add one more shooter through a trade, I think this becomes a very dangerous offensive team as well as a good defensive team, and that makes them a contender.

Rockets
They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system. As I wrote back when I blogged the season-opener between LA and Houston, McGrady dominating the ball so much absolutely kills this offense, and they often look significantly better without him on the court. However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing.

Pistons
I left them off in the preseason because I thought they were missing the tough, killer-instinct, underdog mentality that fueled their last title run. What I didn’t count on was the Celtics getting off to a historical start and really lighting a fire under the Pistons to prove that they were the best team in the East. I honestly think that Boston’s great start had a positive impact on the Pistons, that it lit a fire under them that they didn’t have last year when LeBron trampled all over them in the playoffs. They’re also getting fantastic bench production and they execute and exploit weak defenders as well as any team in the league. I still don’t think they could beat the Spurs, but I think they could beat another team from the West if San Antonio doesn’t make the finals

Lakers
This one comes with a caveat. I reserve the right to dismiss this if the post-injury Bynum we get isn’t the same as pre-injury Bynum. LA has been a MUCH better defensive team this year because Bynum has been on the floor more, has become far less foul-prone, and has rebounded a lot better than last year. The bench and the contributions of Derek Fisher have been great, but Bynum is the key. He isn’t an elite player yet by any means, but he has great hands and finishes well on offense, and he improves their defense exponentially. If he comes back playing as well as early on this season, the Lakers are a long-shot contender.

Well, this post has run on long enough, and I’m sure you’re all tired of my wordiness. The last thing I’ll leave you with is my MVP pick for the first half of the season.

MVP: LeBron James
 With all due respect to Kevin Garnett’s fantastic work in Boston and Kobe’s exceptional play and leadership (who ‘da thunk it?), this isn’t even close. Yes, I know about Boston’s 33-7 record and how KG has gotten everyone playing great defense. I repeat, the MVP race is NOT EVEN CLOSE. Lebron uses more of his team’s possessions than anyone outside of DWade, and his offensive rating this year is 12 points higher than Flash! He averages 30-8-7 with 2 steals and a block, and he shoots almost 50%. Lebron’s AST% (an estimate of the percentage of his teammates’ field goals his assists while on the court) is 6th in the league. 6th! He’s one percentage point behind Deron Williams! It’s not quite MJ numbers that we’re talking about here, but we’re getting close. LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs. He’s the MVP, Period.

Alright, that’s it for me, I finally got this post cranked out. I’ll be sharing my opinions on the All-Star team next post, which should be pretty soon, so keep a look out for that.

Stats Explanation, Eastern Conference Overview

Detroit Pistons

Coach: Flip Saunders
2006-2007 Record: 53-29
06-07 Expected Record: 53-29
Offensive Rating: 109.2 (6th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 103.9 (6th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 48.8% (21st in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 87.4 (30th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Rip Hamilton might be the best player ever at curling off the screen and burying the mid-range jumper. He doesn't  have a whole lot else going for him, but he's successful by being so good at what he does. He's in such great condition that Detroit can keep running him off of screens all game and he just wears defenders out, almost like a physical running back wearing down a defense.

I'll be honest, I underrated Chauncey Billups. He's never impressed me a whole ton when I've watched him and I think his "Mr. Big Shot" title is entirely undeserved. However, the things that he's good at are really the little things that don't stand out on occasional viewings. He's the perfect example of a player who traditional statistics can't adequately capture. His team plays a slow pace so his points and assists are lower than you'd expect, and he doesn't shoot a very high percentage from the field. However, he very rarely makes mistakes (#1 in A/T ratio among starters) and he gets to the FT line better than any point guard in the game. He isn't flashy, but he's among the most efficient players in the NBA, and he plays really good defense as well. His strengths as a guard (shooting, size, decision-making) aren't going to decline with age, so he should maintain his effectiveness for a few more years.

Just as Billups is a perfect example of how traditional statistics can be misleading, Prince is a great example of how bad our current statistical measures are at measuring defense. .6 blocks and .7 steals per game is not really impressive, and doesn't even start to touch on what Prince does defensively. He's so long and has such good defensive positioning that it's really tough to get around him, and almost impossible to shoot over him. Offensively, he's a really versatile guy who doesn't turn the ball over much, and his long, 6'9 frame makes him as tough a matchup as you'll find.

McDyess is a really solid post player. He struggled a little bit his first 2 years in Detroit, but he really settled in last season and played great as a role player. He shoots a high percentage in the post and is the team's best rebounder. On the downside though, he's 33 and has bad knees, so you have to figure his production is going to drop off a bit.

Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell will play a huge role in the Pistons' success this year. Maxiell is very similar to Ronny Turiaf of the Lakers. He's a high-energy guy who flies around to get blocks and dunks and rebounds. Along with that, you have to take the fouls and turnovers that come with it, but he brings a youthful spring and intensity that the Pistons have been missing. Johnson was a star in the D-League last year and was great in the 8 games he played with Detroit. He an amazing athlete and a great talent who is probably going to be very good in a few years, but I'd warn Pistons fans to not get too excited. He's still a young player and needs to add more strength, and he's been turnover prone so far in his career. If he becomes a real force in the Piston's rotation, they could be really scary, but I'm not sure that's going to be the case.

The backcourt players on the bench aren't very good; they're going to have to hope Rodney Stuckey really steps up. Flip Murray isn't very good at all, and Lindsey Hunter also isn't real effective anymore, and he's getting to old to log more than a few minutes each game. Stuckey is kind of a poor man's Randy Foye. He's quick and can get to the rim, though he'll probably have the turnover problems typical of young players.

X-Factor: Rasheed Wallace - When he's at his best, Sheed is a force on both ends of the court. He protects the rim at one end, and he's a versatile inside/outside threat on the other. At his worst, he's a whining chemistry killer who sits out on the three-point line and launches shots instead of ####ing underneath. He's a great offensive player, but he's not a very good rebounder, and his melt downs can cost you. He melted down in the playoffs, and it was a big reason why the Pistons got bounced.  

Overview

Overall it was a very solid year for the Pistons. They were the league's sixth best offense, and really it was only for one reason. They didn't shoot the ball well, they weren't great at getting to the line, and they were only slightly above average at offensive rebounding. However, what they did do well was take care of the ball, with the league's best turnover ratio, and it had a huge effect on their offensive efficiency. Defensively they didn't give up easy shots, and opponents had the 5th worst eFG% against them. On the other hand, they were the 6th worst defensive rebounding team in the league, mostly due to Sheed, Webber, and Maxiell being below average rebounders for their position. In the playoffs, they they ran over Orlando, shut down the Chicago offense, and looked well on their way to the NBA Finals before they allowed LeBron to beat them single-handedly and then melted down in game 6.

  Prediction

I don't think this team can win the title anymore. Don't get me wrong, I think they're a very talented team, and they could very well finish with the best record in the East, but I don't think they're a legitimate title contender anymore. When the Pistons were good, they played with a chip on their shoulder. They punched you in the mouth, and if they ever fell behind, they fed off it and came back stronger the next game. I think a lot of that mentality was brought by Ben Wallace and by Larry Brown's focus on defense and toughness (say what you want about Larry, but he's great at creating and funneling that underdog mentality). Last postseason, they got hit in the mouth and they just crumbled instead of fighting back. You could see it in their faces, they don't respect Flip Saunders and they don't bring the same fighting mentality that made them so good. I just can't see that coming back this year. The bottom line is this: even though the roster is very similar, there's no way that '04 Pistons team would've let someone score 25 straight points against them, there's no way. There was a nasty, Bad Boys-type attitude that the current team just doesn't have.

3rd in the East - On The Brink

 

Atlanta Hawks - Thumbs Up

Picks - Al Horford (3), Acie Law (11)

Start stockpiling provisions, the apocalypse is coming. The Hawks actually made the right move in this draft by taking the best player on the board and the best point guard on the board. The Hawks now have a scary core group of Law, Johnson, M. Williams, Childress, Smith, Horford, S. Williams, and Pachulia that could contend in the east for the next decade. Of course, this is the Hawks, and Billy Knight is still in charge, so that probably won't happen, but it's a very promising young group.

Boston Celtics - Thumbs Up

Picks - Gabe Pruitt (32), Glen Davis (35)

Well, it's hard to argue with basically trading the #5 pick for Ray Allen. Regardless of what happens with Allen's foot surgery and how his game will hold up with age, that's an incredibly cheap price for a guy with his talent. Their two draft picks, Pruitt and Davis, were both great values who went about 10 picks later than they should have. Pruitt should immediately help as a point guard with a jumpshot, and Davis was a great value who could turn out to be a star if he keeps his weight down. Few players in the draft were as adept post scorers as Davis; he's reminiscent of Zach Randolph without the off-the-court problems.

Charlotte Bobcats - On The Fence

Picks - Jared Dudley (22), Jermareo Davidson (36)

I was a huge fan of the Dudley pick when it happened, but I don't like it as much after the trade. Charlotte desperately needs more post players, especially with Okafor and May's health issues. Once they traded Wright, they didn't have that help coming in. I think they probably would've been better off with Tiago Splitter or Josh McRoberts there. I liked the trade, and there is the possibility that they could pick up another post in free agency, but that's a bit of a risk, as there aren't many good low post guys out there (Milicic and Varejao are really the headliners). Still, they did some good things and I like the way the franchise is heading in general.

Chicago Bulls - Thumbs Down

Picks - Joakim Noah (9), Aaron Gray (49), JamesOn Curry (51)

I hate the Noah pick, absolutely hate it. He's an inferior player to Tyrus Thomas and Ben Wallace in almost every way. The Bulls are a legitimate post scorer away from being a championship contender, and they had Spencer Hawes on the board. Not only did they pass on Hawes, but they also didn't make a move on Zach Randolph. I still think they should pursue a deal for Jermaine O'Neal (Thomas, Noah, Thabo Sefolosha and sign & trade P.J. Brown), but they don't seem interested in that either. For a team so close to contending, the Bulls seem very hesitant to make an aggressive move, and that would scare me if I were a Bulls fan.

Detroit Pistons - Thumbs Down

Picks - Rodney Stuckey (15), Arron Afflalo (27) , Sammy Mejia (57)

We've known for a while that Stuckey was their man, but I think they missed an opportunity when Nick Young fell to them. Stuckey is kind of a poor man's Randy Foye, and should be a decent combo guard in the league. However, Young has all-star level talent on the same level as Corey Brewer. Affalo is a Detroit-type player, but they don't really have a need at SG after taking Stuckey, and they had Marcus Williams, Glen Davis and Josh McRobert all available, who are better talents and need positions.

Indiana Pacers - ???

Picks - Stanko Barac (39)

I have no opinion. He's a face-the-basket 7-footer, and that rarely works out, but whatever.

Miami Heat - Thumbs Down

Picks - Daequan Cook (21)

Memo to Pat Riley: your team is aging quickly and you need to win now. Of all the gaps the Heat desperately need to fill, I don't think "inexperienced shooting guard with attitude problems" was one of them. If the Heat really wanted a shooter, Morris Almond was a much better pick there. Really, anyone was a better pick there. Kudos for bluffing Philly into giving up a second rounder to switch spots with you, but Cook is a terrible pick.

Milwaukee Bucks - On The Fence

Picks - Yi Jianlian (6), Ramon Sessions (56)

The decision on the Bucks' draft will be made sometime in the next few days as the Yi situation is fleshed out. If it turns out Yi isn't so averse to going to Milwaukee or if the Bucks trade him (Golden State is the likely candidate), then taking a chance on the best available talent was worth it. If not and Yi either doesn't show up or skulks through the season, then the Bucks made a terrible mistake. Time will tell on this one. Sessions was a great pick up that late though. He was a guy who people were talking about as a possible low first rounder after he had some impressive camps. Landing him at 56 was a great pick for the Bucks at a need position.

New Jersey Nets - Thumbs Up

Picks - Sean Williams (17)

I've wavered on this quite a bit, but in the end I think it was the right pick for the Nets. This is a franchise in limbo, and they need something big to happen. If Williams is able to display the kind of play that he showed at the beginning of the season for Boston College, this pick is a steal. It's a huge risk, but it's obvious that the Nets really thought this one out.

New York Knicks - Thumbs Down

Picks - Wilson Chandler (23), Demetris Nichols (53)

What will it take to get Isaiah Thomas fired? Check my last post if you want a detailed explanation of why the Zach Randolph trade was terrible for New York. Outside of that disaster, the Knicks reached on Wilson Chandler after they made a promise to him, they could've gotten him 10 picks later. I don't care if Isaiah knows talent, he's a crappy executive in every other facet.

Orlando Magic - Who Cares

Picks - Milovan Rakovic (60)

...Moving on.

Philadelphia 76ers - Thumbs Up

Picks - Thaddeus Young (12), Jason Smith (20), Derrick Byars (42), Herbert Hill (55)

I love almost everything about the Sixers' draft. Smith is a great pick for their PF need, Byars was an amazing value at 42, as was Hill at 55. However, I don't particularly like Young at 12, since I think Thornton and Wright were were better picks there. Also, they basically traded their 30th pick for the 42nd pick (cash considerations always bug me). All in all though, they had a very solid draft.

Toronto Raptors - Again, I Don't Care

Picks - Giorgos Printezis (58)

Darn this European influx. Again, I know nothing about this guy.

Washington Wizards - Thumbs Up

Picks - Nick Young (16), Dominic McGuire (47)

The Wizards got two steals where they were drafting. Young is a stud player who could've gone as high as #8 to Charlotte. McGuire is a great athlete who is a strong defender. For a pick that late, he's a great value.

Well, that's it for NBA stuff for a while. I'll post some on various deals that may happen in the offseason, but probably no more large NBA posts until I preview the next season.

Dallas Mavericks

Roster for 07-08

PG - Jason Terry, Devin Harris
SG - Maurice Ager, Greg Buckner
SF - Josh Howard, Deavean George, Pops Mensah-Bonsu
PF - Dirk Nowitzki
C - Erick Dampier, Desanga Diop

Picks

2 - 4 (34 overall)
2 - 20 (50 overall)
2 - 30 (60 overall)

Well, the only real piece the Mavs lose from a 67-win team is Jerry Stackhouse, and there's a decent chance that they can resign him. The question is, can they still win a championship with this team after 2 colossal playoff collapses? They'd love to get rid of Jason Terry to bring in another player who can contribute, since they've got Devin Harris to take his place. They could potentially work a sign and trade with the Cavs for Anderson Varejao and one of Cleveland's bad contracts (Damon Jones or Donyell Marshall). That would give the Cavs the point guard they need and get Dallas some toughness in the frontcourt. As far as their draft picks go, it's hard to predict because that's just the nature of the second round, but they could look to add frontcourt depth, and they might look to draft a combo guard to shore up the backcourt. They'd love to get Glen Davis with their top pick, but it's not likely he drops that far. Names to look out for might be Zabian Dowdell, Aaron Gray, Stephen Lasme, Russell Carter, and Marc Gasol.

What They Should Do: There's a lot of frontcourt depth in the later part of this draft that could be available when they pick, and a lot of them are 4-year college guys with the potential to come in and help immediately. They should try and shop Terry around for frontcourt help and take somebody in the second round who can step in and contribute immediately.

What They Will Do: They'll try to trade Terry, but his value isn't especially high right now, so they might not ever pull the trigger. Draft picks in the second round are a crapshoot, so who knows about that.

Denver Nuggets

Roster for 07-08

PG - Allen Iverson
SG - J.R. Smith, Von Wafer
SF - Carmelo Anthony, Yakhouba Diawara
PF - Kenyon Martin, Linas Kleiza, Reggie Evans
C - Marcus Camby, Nene

Picks

0 - 0 (0 overall)

Well, things could certainly be worse for the Nuggets. They've got no draft picks, but they've got a really solid core built up. The roster could also include Eduardo Najera if he decides to stay with the team (he's got a player option). The main concern for the team should be to resign Steve Blake in the offseason, since he provides a solid pure point who can come off the bench and run the team. If Kenyon Martin can recover at all from injury, they'll have an incredibly deep front line, especially if Najera comes back. If they can't resign Blake, the Nuggets should probably try to dump one of their front line guys for a point. Kleiza and Evans are both good enough young posts that Denver could probably get a servicable backup point for one of them. Other than shoring up the point, the Nuggets are set for making a run next year. The team was only just starting to gel last year, and with another year for the young guys to improve, Iverson to fit in, and the possibility for Martin to return, Denver has the potential to be gangbusters next year.

What They Should Do: Resign Blake and hope that their core is enough to contend.

What They Will Do: I can't see much else they can do other than trying to sign Blake. They don't have the cap space to go for anything else, and they can't really move any contracts.

Detroit Pistons

Roster For 07-08

PG - Lindsey Hunter
SG - Rip Hamilton
SF - Tayshawn Prince, Ronald Dupree
PF - Rasheed Wallace, Jason Maxiell
C - Nazr Mohammed

Picks

1 - 15 (15 overall)
1 - 27 (27 overall)
2 - 27 (57 overall)

There's probably not any team in the league that is more in flux than the Pistons are right now. They're standing at a crossroads, and the decisions of this offseason will drastically effect the next few years. Option 1 is to try and resign Chauncey Billups and probably Chris Webber to make another run at the Finals with this core. The other option is to start shopping around Rasheed Wallace, and build through the draft around a core of Rip, Prince, and Maxiell. All indications are that they're going with option one, and most drafts have them taking Rodney Stuckey at 15 to help with their backcourt depth.

What They Should Do: I think I'm in the minority here, but I'm of the opinion that it's rebuilding time in Detroit. Sure, you might be able to make one more Finals with this group, though even that is a harder task than ever now, but do you actually think the Pistons would have a chance of winning a title? The answer is no, and my philosophy is that if you can't contend for a ring, you need to be building towards it. They'd have to lock Billups up long-term to a fairly large contract, and that contract might even look good for the first and second year. However, Chauncey isn't getting any younger, and this has the feel of a contract that is going to look very bad in a few years when Billups is untradeable and tying up your cap space. Sheed's value isn't going to be getting any higher, and now is the prime time to start rebuilding. I'm actually not a big fan of Stuckey, and I think they'd be better off with Acie Law or Javaris Crittenton, whoever is available there to give them a point guard of the future. Another prospect at 15 could be Sean Williams or Tiago Splitter, since the Pistons really need to reload their frontcourt if they plan on rebuilding, and both of them are great talents. If the pick is a big, I really like Petteri Koponen with the 27th. He's a young PG prospect that scouts are really high on, with some saying he'd be a lottery guy were he coming out of high school in the US. Another pick there is Josh McRoberts, who is a solid value at 27 and is kind of a C-Webb Lite kind of player.

What They Will Do: All signs point to them resigning Billups, drafting Stuckey for backcourt depth, and making another run in the East. I hate this as I think they're sacrificing the future for a few more mediocre years, but that's just me.