Here's the thing with the MVP race this year, you can make a legitimate argument for four different candidates. The candidates are all so worthy and so different that I wouldn't argue anyone's choice if they backed it up logically. Of course, there are a lot of illogical arguments out there, and I have no qualms about destroying them with my scathing wit :P. Also, if you're going to argue that the MVP is anyone other than KG, LeBron, Kobe or CP3, you have to wear the stupid helmet.
What makes this MVP race especially difficult to decide is that the candidates are so completely different. Do you think that the MVP is the best player on the best team? It's hard to argue against KG there. Do you think the MVP is the most productive player? LeBron has a pretty strong claim to that distinction. You can make the case for anyone, and a lot of it depends on what you think the MVP award means. How do you define "Valuable"? As I write this, I'm not even sure who my pick is, I'm just going to make the best case I can for each player.
Make no mistake, this is not who I think will win the award. Kobe's going to win it, I don't think there's any doubt about that. This is who should win the award.
I'm gonna throw some statistics out there that you might not know. They aren't necessary to understand, but I'm just putting them out there. I explain them quickly in this post, a little way down the page.
LeBron James Relevant Statistics: 51.8% eFG 71.2% FT 11.1 RB% 37.3 AST% 11.4 TO% 33.5 Usage% 116 ORtg
So, halfway through the year I announced that LeBron was my midseason MVP. What's changed since then? For LeBron and the Cavs, absolutely nothing. LeBron's stats are almost identical now to what they were at the halfway point. The Cavs' record at that point was 23-18, they ended the season at 45-37, almost exactly the same winning percentage. In fact, what I said at the time looks almost prescient in retrospect,
"LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a
really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs."
Quite simply, LeBron has been superb this season. Make whatever arguments you want about clutch or leadership or whatnot, but the fact of the matter is that LeBron has produced more, night-in and night-out, than any player in the league. To put things in perspective, the Cavs play the 6th slowest pace in the league, almost 10 possessions per game less than league-leading Denver. Despite that, he's putting up the kind of numbers that Oscar Robertson put up in his prime. He absolutely denies comparison, Within a few years, we could legitimately be talking about him in the "Greatest Of All Time" sense.History may show us to be fools if we deny him here. LeBron James has to be the MVP.
Chris Paul Relevant Statistics 52.4% eFG
85.1% FT 6.2 RB% 52.2
AST%
12.1 TO% 25.7
Usage%
125 ORtg
It's taken Chris Paul a mere three seasons to draw comparisons to Isiah Thomas in his prime. Three years to rejuvenate basketball in New Orleans. Three years to become the unquestioned leader of the #2 seed in the toughest conference in history. Three years to give the Hornets their first ever division title. Three years. That's how long it took him to average 21 points and 12 assists per game. You know how long you've got to go back to find the last guy who went 20 and 10 with assists? All the way back to the 92-93 season, when Timmy Hardaway did it. Even more impressive? Paul did it while playing on the 5th slowest team in the league. When he was on the floor, CP3 assisted on 52% of his teammates' field goals. The only other guy ever to do that? It's this guy you might have heard of, goes by "Stockton". He's responsible for single-handedly making Tyson Chandler an offensive force. You want to see improving your teammates? The two seasons before he came to New Orleans, Chandler shot 52.3% on 4.4 FGA per game. In two seasons with Paul, Chandler has shot 62.3% on 7.1 FGA per game, and the Paul-to-Chandler alley-oop has become one of the NBA's signature plays. In three short years he's taken the title of "best point guard" from a hall of famer still playing some of the best ball of his career. He's one of the most efficient players in the NBA, he's the league's best point guard, and he saved basketball in New Orleans. Chris Paul has to be the MVP.
Over the last 5 years, Kobe Bryant has arguably been the best basketball player on the planet. He's been to the Finals, he's carried a mediocre team to the playoffs the last two years, he's dropped 81 points in a single game, and he made All-Defensive Team after All-Defensive Team. In all that, he's been passed over for the MVP award time and again. People always had complaints: He shared credit with Shaq, his team wasn't good enough, he wasn't a good teammate, he looked for his own scoring too much. Well, no such complaints this year. Surrounded by a core of talented young players. Kobe has moved past his off-season discontent and been the leader the Lakers need. His guiding of an injury-plagued team to the #1 seed has been nothing short of amazing. Consider the Lakers' two main trade acquisitions this year. Paul Gasol has played effectively 26 of the 37 games since he came over, and Trevor Ariza has played a mere 24 of the 70 games since he arrived. Add to that the fact that centers Andrew Bynum and Chris Mihm have spent the majority of the year on the DL, and you see what a truly impressive feat it was for Kobe to take this team to the top of the Western Conference. He's become the player we kept saying he should be, and his team sits on top of the toughest conference of all time. Kobe Bryant has to be the MVP.
Kevin Garnett Relevant Statistics 53.9% eFG
80.1% FT 16.8 RB% 19.9
AST%
110.8 TO% 25.5
Usage%
118 ORtg
Two numbers ultimately describe Kevin Garnett's impact this season. 66 and 24. That's the Celtics' win total from this year and their win total last year. Lest this 42 game swing doesn't impress you, remember back to the beginning of the season, back before the Celtics started demolishing everyone in their way, back when no one was sure how this would work. 3 superstars with 0 championship rings between them, not much of a bench and a reliance on young, unproven guys to fill the other spots on the court. We knew they'd be pretty good, we certainly knew they'd be better than last year, but no one was ready for this. 66-16, the best record in the league wire-to-wire, a huge +10.26 point differential (3.5 points higher than second-place Utah), and the best defense in the league by a long shot. More than anyone else, Garnett's impact goes beyond statistics (and that's saying something, since his are quite impressive). His arrival brought about a culture shift in Boston. His intensity has ratcheted up the defensive play of every other member of the team. His deft passing in the post and willingness to give them the ball has instilled confidence in guys like Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Leon Powe. His presence has drawn in free agents like James Posey, P.J. Brown and Sam Cassell to give the Celtics veteran depth. As far as overall impact on a franchise, it's hard to argue anyone has done more than Garnett. He's the best defender in the game, he turned his team around, and he rejuvenated basketball in Boston. Kevin Garnett has to be the MVP
There are legitimate cases to be made for all four candidates. However, we've got to pick one, so who's it going to be?
LeBron might be the best basketball player on the planet, but his team hasn't been impressive this year. Despite their overall record, the Cavs actually have a negative point differential. Basically, they're lucky to have even broken .500, much less be a 45 win team. How much fault does LeBron take for that? I'm not inclined to criticize him much, since he's been surrounded by a truly sucktastic supporting cast this season. However, he certainly doesn't have the defensive impact that Kobe or Garnett have, and I'm not sure Chris Paul hasn't actually had the better offensive season.
Paul has certainly put up impressive numbers and led his team to be a lot better than they were supposed to be. However, he's also got some pretty solid teammates around him. Peja's shooting stroke and David West's solid all-around game (by the way, even though people keep saying it, he's still underrated) really complement his skills and give the Hornets a strong team. Unlike last year, and unlike the Lakers this year, Paul's Hornets have stayed healthy and haven't had to deal with much adversity during the season. Also, of all these 4, Paul is probably the weakest defensively.
Kobe's overall production and statistical impact just don't measure up to LeBron and Paul. Those two are having, quite simply, transcendent seasons. His season certainly doesn't jump off the page like the others do. Also, the MVP award isn't a career achievement award, it's an individual regular season award. Frankly, Kobe has had better seasons, and just because he didn't win it then doesn't mean that he should win it now. Sure, he has done a great job leading the Lakers, but does it even remotely compare to the job that Garnett has done in Boston?
Garnett might be the main force behind Boston's turnaround, but it's not like he did it alone. Having teammates like Paul Pierce and Ray Allen certainly helps. Garnett also isn't the guy who is going to take the tough shot at the end o####ame, he's never relished that role. Can you be the MVP if your team goes to other guys in the clutch, especially when compared to these other three guys?
The Pick
I've swung back and forth on this in the last few weeks more times than I care to count. As I said above, I hadn't decided who this pick would be even as I wrote the post. After poring over everything, I realized that my MVP vote has to go to Kevin Garnett. Here's the thing, all week I've kind of dismissed KG's candidacy. I thought he was the weakest of the four, not on the same level as Kobe, Paul and LeBron. However, as I looked over all that he's done this year and the numbers that he has put up, it becomes harder and harder to find any reason not to pick him. I'm not concerned with the fact that he isn't their go-to clutch scorer, I'm much more concerned with what happens in the first 45 minutes of the game than what happens in the last 3. I remember back to the criticism of the Ray Allen trade and how that only really turned into a good thing once KG was on board. I thought back to how uncertain I was of the Celtics at the beginning of the season. I thought about how Garnett transformed a team with no other guys who you could call reliable top-tier defenders and transformed them into one of the best (if not the best) defensive teams of the past ten years. His defensive presence, the way he has completely altered the team's atmosphere and the incredible turnaround from worst to first all point to one thing.
Well, I wanted to make this post a while ago, but I've been fighting sickness for the last two weeks, so it's slightly belated. Anyway, I'm gonna give you my All-Star Teams, and explain to you why some of the guys you might expect to be there aren't.
First of all, note that this is not a lifetime achievement award. I do not care what you did last year, nor do I care what you might be expected to do for the rest of the year. Performance is what matters.
Second, while I do consider your team's record, it's not a huge factor to me. I'm not going to penalize you for having crappy teammates.
Finally, I'm going to list some relevant statistics for each player. These are not going to be PPG or RPG statistics, cause frankly those are usually poor measures of performance and you can find them anywhere. Because I'm going to be listing some statistics that some of you might not recognize, I'll give you a quick synopsis of some of them.
eFG (effective field goal percentage) - This is simply field goal percentage, except it gives extra credit for three-pointers.
ORtg (Offensive Rating) - A measure of how efficient an offensive player is. It's a ridiculously complicated formula, but basically it estimates how many points a player creates per every 100 possessions they use.
USG% (Usage %)- The estimated percentage of the team's possessions that a player uses while they're on the floor. As a general rule, as USG% goes up, ORtg goes down (harder to be efficient the more you're asked to do). Point Guards often have lower USG% (around 20%), whereas high-volume scorers (DWade, LeBron, Kobe, etc.) usually have a USG% of 30% or more.
AST% - An estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals that you assist on while you're on the floor.
TO% - estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions. Anything below 10 is outstanding, over 20% is usually pretty bad.
REB% - An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds that a player grabbed while he was on the floor.
(most statistics courtesy of basketballreference.com)
That said, on to the teams.
xphoenix87's Eastern Conference All-Stars
Starting Lineup
Guard-Chauncey Billups (53.4% eFG, 90.4% FT, 22.5 USG%, 128 ORtg, 34.6 AST%, 12.7 TO%) One of the steadiest players in the league, and one of the most ruthlessly efficient offensive players out there. He's a nightmare to match up against for most teams because he's so good at backing down opposing point guards and abusing them with short turnaround jumpers or headfaking them into fouling him. Billups was an easy pick.
Guard-Jose Calderon (58.7% eFG, 91.7% FT, 130 ORtg, 44.8 AST%, 13.8 TO%, 5.58 A/T) I know, he didn't even make the All-Star team, I must be out of my mind to have him as a starter, right? Well, lets look at him versus the actual All-Star starters, Jason Kidd and Dwayne Wade. There's been a lot of hype about Kidd and his near-triple double pace this season, but how about the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.
Forward-LeBron (33.6 USG%, 116 ORtg, 51.3% eFG, 37.8 AST%, 11 TO%, 11.8 REB%) Any argument that LeBron should be the starter here? Didn't think so, moving on.
Forward-KG (24.2 USG%, 120 ORtg, 55.1% eFG, 17.2 REB%, 20.5 AST%) More than any statistic, the impact of Garnett is most pronounced in these numbers.
106.9 24
98 38
The first two numbers are Boston's defensive rating and win total from last year. The second two are those same numbers from this year. Defensive impact has been notoriously tricky to quantify, but the effect of Garnett on Boston has been palpable.
Center-Dwight Howard (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 21.6 REB%, 60.2% eFG) Again, anyone want to argue this? Howard is easily the most dominant center in the conference, if not the entire league.
Bench
Guard-Dwyane Wade (33 USG%, 103 ORtg, 35.8 AST%, 9 FTA/36, 75.6% FT, 46.8% eFG) Is he having a down year? Yeah, sure, but he's still Dwyane Wade. He still gets to the line as well as anyone in the league, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.
Guard-Rip Hamilton (24.7 USG%, 114 ORtg, 53.1% eFG, 23 AST%, 10.4 TO%, 81.5% FT) Honestly, I searched really hard to find someone who deserved this spot, maybe someone that everyone else had missed. No dice. As I mentioned above, the guards in the East are so bad that I'm really kind of reaching here (as opposed to the West, which is overflowing with candidates). In the end, nobody I looked at was having a better year than Hamilton. A lot of people like Ray Allen here because of how well Boston has played, but I'm not buying that, and Rip is having a better year. Hamilton is an extremely efficient scorer, and might be the league's best at using off the ball screens (It's between he and Kevin Martin IMO). In addition, he's also a very solid defensive player (as with most Pistons players).
Forward-Caron Butler (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 50.8% eFG, 91.3% FT, 20.5 AST%) Butler supposedly made "The Jump" last year when he made it into his first All-Star game. Well, if he was jumping last year, he's flying this year. His turnovers are down, his assists are way up, his shooting percentages are way up, and he's carrying the Wizards in Gilbert Arenas' absence. His mid-range game has always been among the best in the league, but this year he has really increased his range, shooting 36.5% from long-range.
Forward-Paul Pierce (25.7 USG%, 110 ORtg, 49.6% eFG, 22.8 AST%, 8.8 REB%) I was trying to decide between Pierce and Richard Jefferson here, and really the difference between the two is minimal. Their stat profiles are so similar that it's almost impossible to chose between them. Jefferson is putting up better pure scoring numbers, but Pierce is the better distributor and rebounder. In the end, it comes down to Pierce being the superior defensive player and more proven star.
Center-Chris Bosh (28.6 USG%, 117 ORtg, 14.9 REB%, 10.2 TO%, 48.9% eFG, 85.6% FT) Even if Bosh didn't actually deserve this, he's really the only choice. At any rate, Bosh is having the best season of his career. He's often the forgotten 4th member of that LeBron, Wade, Melo draft class, but he has absolutel y kept himself at that level. He hasn't yet become a dominant defensive force, but he's definitely improving as a disruptive force who can defend without fouling. Offensively, he rivals Garnett and Duncan as the best face-up post men in the league. He's got a great jab step, and he's so quick and so long that he's almost impossible to guard without help. That quickness means he gets to the line a TON, and his FT% has shot up to 85% this season. He's also got great hands, makes quick decisions, and picks his spots well, leading to very low turnover numbers for a guy his size who has such a high usage rate.
Wild Card #1-Richard Jefferson (27.5 ORtg, 111 ORtg, 48.5% eFG, 80.4% FT) If I struggled with Jefferson vs. Pierce above, it didn't take a lot of thought to put him here. A bit overlooked in the Nets' collapse, Jefferson is completing his transformation from a role player who finished Jason Kidd alley-oops into the team's star-quality first option. It isn't the most efficient year of Jefferson's career, but he's taking on a much bigger role in the offense, and he's thriving.
Wild Card #2-Josh Smith (26.5 USG%, 100 ORtg, 13 REB%, 45.3% eFG, 20 AST%, 3.4 BPG, 2 SPG) There were three people I considered here: Smith, Antwan Jamison, and Tayshaun Prince. Jamison is having a solid year, and he's rebounding than he ever has in his career. He doesn't make many mistakes (4th lowest TO% in the league), but the fact that he shoots 30% from the field really hurts him. He also doesn't play defense, and he just isn't a good enough offensive player to make up for that and get on the team for me. Prince is a fantastic player who often gets overlooked in Detroit, but he's a matchup nightmare with his length and versatility, and he's one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. However, if I'm going to go with a defensive force, it's got to be Smith. He might not have much polish as an offensive player yet, but Smith is the rare player who can be a dominating defensive force against multiple positions. Like Andrei Kirilenko, he can match up with wing defenders, but he's also a force defending the rim and drifting into passing lanes. The Hawks are 9th in the league in defense, and the biggest reason is Smith's game-altering presence.
Some guys of note on the outside looking in
Kidd - People get wrapped up in the whole triple-double thing, but the fact is that Kidd has really fallen off as an offensive player. He can't finish around the rim at all anymore, and he's turning the ball over at a prodigious rate. People need to start getting used to the idea that the 34-year old Kidd may not be an elite point guard any more.
Jamison - I went over this above. Very good offensive player, very bad defensive player.
Michael Redd - What I said about Jamison, only more pronounced. To say that he plays matador defense is an understatement.
Hedo Turkoglu - Hedo is a fantastic story this year as he has really improved his play and become a key part of Orlando's success. He's had some truly great moments at the ends of games too. However, I think he's much more a top-tier role player than he is an all-star. He isn't a good defender, and his offensive numbers are good, but not great.
Joe Johnson - He's only noteworthy because he's on the actual all-star team. In reality he's having his worst season as a Hawk, and doesn't deserve to be on the team.
You know, I’ve tried to write
this post like 6 times, and every time I just stall at the beginning and give
it up. Maybe I’ll actually get it written this time.
Anyway, we’ve hit the half way
point of the NBA season. It’s time to look back at what we’ve learned, as well
as look forward to what we can expect from the rest of the season. With that in
mind, lets take a look at some of the teams that I really missed on.
Memphis Grizzlies Wow, did I miss on these guys or
what? Strangely enough, a lot of what I thought would happen with them did
happen. Rudy #### really blossomed in his second year, becoming a potent scorer,
J.C. Navarro has been one of the best rookies in the league and has had some
truly spectacular shooting performances, and Mike Conley has played very well
since returning from injury. They’re actually a decent offensive team. However,
where I was wrong was thinking that they would be an improved defensive team.
#### hasn’t been much of a defender, even though he has all the tools for it, Kyle
Lowry isn’t having nearly as much impact as last year, and most importantly,
Darko has been absolutely terrible. One reason I liked them so much was because
an even slightly improved Darko would give them a much-needed shot-blocking
presence in the back of their defense. Instead, Darko has, amazingly, been
much, much worse than he was in Orlando
last year. Of course, I also though 42 or 43 wins would get you into the
playoffs out West, and that doesn’t appear to be the case at this point. Oh
well, they’ll at least put themselves in good position to get Mike Beasley or
DeAndre Jordan in the draft.
Chicago Bulls I, like everyone else, have been
pretty stunned by the poor performance of the Bulls. Now, to some extent we
probably should’ve been able to see this coming. All the talk about a Kobe trade obviously had
an effect on the young guys on this team. It was also painfully obvious that
Ben Wallace was declining rapidly as a player. However, there’s no way that
anyone could’ve predicted the inexplicably bad play of the Bulls’ young core
players. To have one young guy regress when he should be improving is one
thing, but for five guys under the age of 27? It’s absolutely incredible.
Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon and Thomas are all having worse seasons than last
year. We’re not just talking about slightly worse either, we’re talking about
them being significantly less productive. 7 of the top 8 guys on the team (with
Joe Smith as the exception) are shooting worse than they were last season. It’s
absolutely mind-blowing how the young Bulls have regressed. I think we’re going
to see the Bulls in the playoffs at the end of this season 1) because they’re
in the East, and as bad as they’ve been they’re only a game behind the Pacers
for the last playoff spot right now, but also because 2) it’s absolutely
unheard of for a team full of young players to take a huge step backwards like
this, and I think they’ll bounce back some and be respectable by season’s end.
Portland Trailblazers I actually kind of thought
Portland would be better than most people thought they would, but I never
thought they’d have this kind of success. The biggest shocker to me has been
the extraordinary play of Brandon Roy. I’ll be honest, I thought Roy was a really good player when Portland drafted him, and I thought he’d make
a few All-Star teams and be a really good player, but I never thought he’d be
this good, this fast. He has become the unquestioned leader of the team that
has the best chemistry in the league. He does all the little things and he’s a
big-time clutch player, making big shots, big defensive stops and getting big
rebounds. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player with a better hesitation move
than Roy, he
reminds me a bit of Nash in the way that he always looks like he’s completely
under control. Of course, the other big reason for the Blazers’ success has
been the brilliant coaching of Nate McMillan. This Blazers team has great
chemistry, they run their offensive sets really well, and they use zone
defenses as well as any team in the league. That’s great coaching, McMillan has
got this young team executing and believing in themselves.
Those are the teams that have
really surprised this year, but we’ve also learned a lot this season about the
league’s elite teams. With that in mind, I’m taking another look at my list of potential
contenders and cutting it down to size a bit.
My list from the preseason looked
like this (in no particular order): Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Jazz, Celtics,
Nuggets, Bulls, Suns
My list now (again, in no particular
order): Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers
So, why did I drop the teams I
did?
Bulls are obvious, I’m not going
to go over them
Jazz They can’t defend the post at
all, and I can’t bring myself to pick them in a conference with Duncan, STAT, Yao,
Dirk, and now Bynum. You have to defend the post, and they can’t.
Mavs Gone unnoticed by basically
everyone is the fact that the Mavs’ defense has not been good this year. This
team was 2nd in the league on offense and 5th on defense
last year, this year they’re 2nd on offense and 18th on
defense. Add that to their playoff failures the last two years and this team
screams “paper tiger” to me.
Suns Hardest drop from the list for
me. I love Nash and I think this team is tremendously talented. However,
they’re a worse defensive team than last year, and they aren’t going to win a
title that way. Amare continues to be a weakness defensively in the post, and
Brian Skinner brings defense, but he doesn’t have any offensive skills. Kurt
Thomas was so great because he could both guard bigs and step out and hit the
mid-range jumper, Skinner can’t do that. I hate it, but bad defensive teams
don’t win titles.
You’ll notice a common theme on
why I didn’t pick any of the previous teams. To put the importance of defense
in perspective, there have only been 2 teams in the modern era who have won a
title without a top 10 defense, and they were the ‘95 Rockets and the ’01
Lakers (who don’t even really count because they played great defense the year
before and the year after and during the playoffs with essentially the same
team, and obviously didn’t care about the regular season this year). Moral of
the story is that defense is really important.
You may also be wondering why the
Hornets didn’t make the list. Simply put, they don’t have a bench. I would take
their starting five against any other starting unit in the league, but they
don’t have the depth or the experience to make a deep run, especially not if
anyone (read: Peja) gets hurt. I love the team, I love Chris Paul, they’re a
great story, but I don’t think this is their year.
So, why the teams that I did
pick?
I’m not going over the Spurs and
Celtics, you all know why they’re on that list.
Nuggets They have two possible starters
who are out indefinitely with injury (Nene and Chucky Atkins), Carmelo’s
production and efficiency is down significantly from his past two seasons, and
they have a serious lack of three-point shooting. Still, they’re 25-16 and
first in their division. The reason is because Allen Iverson has fully embraced
being a co-star with Melo and is having the most efficient season of his
career, and because Marcus Camby takes this team from being a very bad
defensive team to being a very good defensive team. If Atkins comes back
healthy or they can add one more shooter through a trade, I think this becomes
a very dangerous offensive team as well as a good defensive team, and that
makes them a contender.
Rockets They’re the biggest stretch on
the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level
defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy
into Adelman’s system. As I wrote back when I blogged the season-opener between
LA and Houston, McGrady dominating the ball so much absolutely kills this
offense, and they often look significantly better without him on the court.
However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady
easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself
into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they
piddle along for a while before collapsing.
Pistons I left them off in the preseason
because I thought they were missing the tough, killer-instinct, underdog
mentality that fueled their last title run. What I didn’t count on was the
Celtics getting off to a historical start and really lighting a fire under the
Pistons to prove that they were the best team in the East. I honestly think
that Boston’s great start had a positive impact on the Pistons, that it lit a
fire under them that they didn’t have last year when LeBron trampled all over
them in the playoffs. They’re also getting fantastic bench production and they
execute and exploit weak defenders as well as any team in the league. I still
don’t think they could beat the Spurs, but I think they could beat another team
from the West if San Antonio
doesn’t make the finals
Lakers This one comes with a caveat. I
reserve the right to dismiss this if the post-injury Bynum we get isn’t the
same as pre-injury Bynum. LA has been a MUCH better defensive team this year
because Bynum has been on the floor more, has become far less foul-prone, and
has rebounded a lot better than last year. The bench and the contributions of
Derek Fisher have been great, but Bynum is the key. He isn’t an elite player
yet by any means, but he has great hands and finishes well on offense, and he
improves their defense exponentially. If he comes back playing as well as early
on this season, the Lakers are a long-shot contender.
Well, this post has run on long
enough, and I’m sure you’re all tired of my wordiness. The last thing I’ll
leave you with is my MVP pick for the first half of the season.
MVP: LeBron James With all due respect to Kevin Garnett’s
fantastic work in Boston and Kobe’s exceptional play and leadership (who
‘da thunk it?), this isn’t even close. Yes, I know about Boston’s 33-7 record and how KG has gotten
everyone playing great defense. I repeat, the MVP race is NOT EVEN CLOSE. Lebron
uses more of his team’s possessions than anyone outside of DWade, and his
offensive rating this year is 12 points higher than Flash! He averages 30-8-7
with 2 steals and a block, and he shoots almost 50%. Lebron’s AST% (an estimate
of the percentage of his teammates’ field goals his assists while on the court)
is 6th in the league. 6th! He’s one percentage point
behind Deron Williams! It’s not quite MJ numbers that we’re talking about here,
but we’re getting close. LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a
really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs. He’s the MVP, Period.
Alright, that’s it for me, I
finally got this post cranked out. I’ll be sharing my opinions on the All-Star
team next post, which should be pretty soon, so keep a look out for that.
Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.
Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.
I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-####, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.
In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.
Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.
Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.
Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.
It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.
Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.
Coach: Larry Krystkowiak 2006-2007 Record: 28-54 06-07 Expected Record: 29.5-52.5 Offensive Rating: 106.7 (13th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 112.0 (29th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 50.4% (8th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 92.3 (11th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
I really like Michael Redd. He's an incredibly hard worker who keeps improving himself every year. He completely reinvented himself as a player when he came into the league. Did you realize that he shot 32% from behind the arc and 65% from the line in college? Now he's one of the league's best shooters. The common misconception about Redd is that he's only a shooter, where the reality is that over the last 3 years only about 25% of his shots have been threes and he gets to the line a lot. He's a very versatile and efficient scorer who doesn't make mistakes (#1 in career TO ratio among active players). He's really an elite player, and one of the underrated stars in the league.
I think I overrated Mo Williams a bit when evaluating him over the summer. He's a good scorer who can get his points from all over the court, whether it's getting to the rim or shooting the rock. However, he's not a great distributor, which is a problem with so many scorers around him on this team. His other weakness on the offensive end is that he doesn't get to the line much, and that hurts his efficiency as an offensive player.
You know who isn't very good? Desmond Mason, that's who. For a guy who takes a ton of point-blank shots, he has a very poor shooting percentage. He also turns the ball over a lot, doesn't rebound real well, and is a poor free throw shooter. He's a good finisher on the break, but not much beyond that. I'd expect that once he proves he can come back strong from his surgery, Bobby Simmons will take most of the SF minutes.
I can't say I'm particularly excited about the two-headed monster of Yi and Villanueva at PF. Both are offensively-minded forwards who don't play much defense. Both are matchup problems for opposing bigs, Villanueva because he can hit the long ball and Yi because he can put the ball on the floor and go by you. Defensively, Villanueva is a decent rebounder, but to call him disinterested would be an understatement. Yi has shotblocking potential, but he's going to have to get stronger in order to play post defense and grab boards, expect him to pick up a lot of fouls this year.
Charlie Bell is a really good backup guard. He can play both guard spots and he's a good shooter who takes care of the ball. He's also the best perimeter defender on the team. His attitude will be really important for the Bucks this year as he made it quite clear over the summer that he didn't want to come back to Milwaukee. If he's happy, he's one of the best backup guards in the league.
X-Factor: Andrew Bogut - It's time for Bogut to start living up to the potential that made him a number one pick. He had a really solid rookie season, but he actually regressed a little last year. The most pronounced difference was on the defensive end, where his blocked shots got cut in half from his rookie year to last year. Offensively, he's an excellent passer and a really skilled scorer around the rim, but he really needs to work on his jump shot. His passing is really best-suited for playing out of the high post, but he's not a very good mid-range shooter. If he improves his jumper and free throw stroke, as well as returning to form as a shotblocker, he could develop into one of the league's best pure centers.
Overview
The Bucks got decimated by injuries last year. Redd missed 29 games, Williams missed 14, Bogut 16, Villanueva 43, and Simmons missed the whole season. After it became obvious that they weren't going to be playoff-bound, Milwaukee basically shut it down for the year and tanked for a top pick in the draft (ah, fate is a cruel mistress). The slew of injuries did give Williams the opportunity to step up and establish himself as a solid player. I can't say I was thrilled by their offseason moves. They didn't make Bell feel wanted, but then kept him when he didn't want to stay. They replaced Ruben Patterson by paying Mason twice as much as he was worth. They also drafted Yi, who didn't want to play for them and is a risky pick anyway.
Prediction
I think this Bucks team is primed for a step up. They're loaded with offensive talent and should be a top offensive team if they stay relatively healthy. Between Redd, Williams, Bell, Villanueva, and Simmons, they've got tons of perimeter shooting, which makes them really tough to guard, and they've got a go-to guy in the clutch in Redd. The concern will be on the defensive end, where they need Bogut to step up as a defensive playmaker. If they can even be a hal####ecent defensive team, they'll be a playoff team in the East. You have to be concerned about the attitude of Bell and the way Yi will fit in, but if they stay relatively injury-free and their young players develop, they'll be solid.
8th in the East - Not Very Good, But Hey, It's The East!
Coach: Jim O'Brien 2006-2007 Record: 35-47 06-07 Expected Record: 35-47 Offensive Rating: 102.8 (30th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 105.6 (10th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 47.4% (29th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 92.4 (10th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
I just realized that Jermaine O'Neal didn't make the All-Defensive Team last year. That's a travesty. This is a team on which Jamaal Tinsley, Troy Murphy, and Mike Dunleavy all played major minutes, and none of them are exactly defensive wonders. Still, this team finished 10th in the league in defense, pretty much entirely because O'Neal was a monster at blocking shots while also guarding the opposing team's best post scorer. Offensively, O'Neal is way overrated. He falls in love with his mid-range jumper too much , so he shoots a poor percentage for an interior player and isn't an efficient scorer. He's a good player if you don't need him to be your main option, but he's not a good enough offensive player to be a team's primary scorer.
Jamaal Tinsley is going to have to play tons of minutes, cause they don't have anyone else, and that's not really a good thing. He commits a lot of turnovers, and he shoots a very low percentage. He's a big reason why this team was the second-worst shooting team in the league and had the fourth most turnovers.
Murphy is a serviceable player off the bench since he's a decent rebounder and an exceptional mid-range shooter. He's not going to create a lot of points in the low post, but that jumper is deadly. Defensively though, he's absolutely awful. Lets just say that quickness is not his strong suit.
Dunleavy is kind of the classic "Jack of All Trades but Master of None". He's a decent rebounder from the G/F spot, he's a good shooter, and a good passer, but nothing about him really stands out. Well, that's not entirely true. What did stand out as the Pacers insisted on playing Dunleavy at the SG position is that he's not a very good defender at all. He gives up so much quickness playing against guards that he might as well not even be there on defense.
Ike Diogu has the potential to be a really good player once he polishes his game up some. He's really good at getting himself to the line (averaging over half a free throw attempt per field goal attempt) and shoots a very high percentage from the charity stripe. He's also a very good rebounder, especially for a guy his size. Right now the big thing that is keeping him from being successful is that he is extremely turnover prone, something that we can probably expect to see improve drastically as he gets more experienced. The other problem is defense, which isn't so easy to correct. He's probably never foing to be a very good defender since he's not especially quick and is undersized, but he makes up for it some by being a good rebounder.
I guarantee you there are a bunch of teams out there who would love to have Jeff Foster on their roster. He may be completely offensively deficient, but man can he rebound.
X-Factor: Danny Granger - I remember watching the draft a few years ago and wondering how on earth Danny Granger kept dropping and dropping till the Pacers got him at #17. In his two seasons in the league, he's done little to dispel my notion that he should've gone higher. Granger is one of the few players on this team who is a legitimate potential all-star young talent. He's a versatile scorer who is effective driving the ball or shooting it. He's probably the best offensive player on this team, and he has to become more aggressive if the Pacers want to avoid repeating as the league's worst offensive team. On the other end, he's emerging as an excellent defensive stopper. His athleticism and length make him a tough matchup for most of the league's elite wing players.
Overview
The most positive thing to happen to this team last year might have been getting rid of supreme headcase Stephen Jackson. Other than that, there wasn't a lot of exciting stuff going on in Pacertown. With basically no legitimate scoring options, the Pacers finished with the league's worst offense, despite being the 10th best offensive rebounding team. Truly, this was a painful team to watch. With no first round draft picks and not a lot of cap flexibility, the Pacers were left with basically the same roster, filled with a lot of overpaid players and not a lot of young talent.
Prediction
This team has a bunch of great bench players. Unfortunately, those bench players happen to be in the starting lineup for Indy. Tinsley, despite his flashes of talent, really is a terrible option at point guard, and their only real legitimate scorer is Granger. There's been practically no change to the roster, and this was definitely not a successful roster last year. The most likely course for the Pacers seems to be finding a trading partner for O'Neal, then proceeding to head right to the top of the lottery. This Pacers team just isn't very good.
15th in the East - If You're Bad in the East, You're Really Bad
Coach: Flip Saunders 2006-2007 Record: 53-29 06-07 Expected Record: 53-29 Offensive Rating: 109.2 (6th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 103.9 (6th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 48.8% (21st in NBA) Possessions per 48: 87.4 (30th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Rip Hamilton might be the best player ever at curling off the screen and burying the mid-range jumper. He doesn't have a whole lot else going for him, but he's successful by being so good at what he does. He's in such great condition that Detroit can keep running him off of screens all game and he just wears defenders out, almost like a physical running back wearing down a defense.
I'll be honest, I underrated Chauncey Billups. He's never impressed me a whole ton when I've watched him and I think his "Mr. Big Shot" title is entirely undeserved. However, the things that he's good at are really the little things that don't stand out on occasional viewings. He's the perfect example of a player who traditional statistics can't adequately capture. His team plays a slow pace so his points and assists are lower than you'd expect, and he doesn't shoot a very high percentage from the field. However, he very rarely makes mistakes (#1 in A/T ratio among starters) and he gets to the FT line better than any point guard in the game. He isn't flashy, but he's among the most efficient players in the NBA, and he plays really good defense as well. His strengths as a guard (shooting, size, decision-making) aren't going to decline with age, so he should maintain his effectiveness for a few more years.
Just as Billups is a perfect example of how traditional statistics can be misleading, Prince is a great example of how bad our current statistical measures are at measuring defense. .6 blocks and .7 steals per game is not really impressive, and doesn't even start to touch on what Prince does defensively. He's so long and has such good defensive positioning that it's really tough to get around him, and almost impossible to shoot over him. Offensively, he's a really versatile guy who doesn't turn the ball over much, and his long, 6'9 frame makes him as tough a matchup as you'll find.
McDyess is a really solid post player. He struggled a little bit his first 2 years in Detroit, but he really settled in last season and played great as a role player. He shoots a high percentage in the post and is the team's best rebounder. On the downside though, he's 33 and has bad knees, so you have to figure his production is going to drop off a bit.
Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell will play a huge role in the Pistons' success this year. Maxiell is very similar to Ronny Turiaf of the Lakers. He's a high-energy guy who flies around to get blocks and dunks and rebounds. Along with that, you have to take the fouls and turnovers that come with it, but he brings a youthful spring and intensity that the Pistons have been missing. Johnson was a star in the D-League last year and was great in the 8 games he played with Detroit. He an amazing athlete and a great talent who is probably going to be very good in a few years, but I'd warn Pistons fans to not get too excited. He's still a young player and needs to add more strength, and he's been turnover prone so far in his career. If he becomes a real force in the Piston's rotation, they could be really scary, but I'm not sure that's going to be the case.
The backcourt players on the bench aren't very good; they're going to have to hope Rodney Stuckey really steps up. Flip Murray isn't very good at all, and Lindsey Hunter also isn't real effective anymore, and he's getting to old to log more than a few minutes each game. Stuckey is kind of a poor man's Randy Foye. He's quick and can get to the rim, though he'll probably have the turnover problems typical of young players.
X-Factor: Rasheed Wallace - When he's at his best, Sheed is a force on both ends of the court. He protects the rim at one end, and he's a versatile inside/outside threat on the other. At his worst, he's a whining chemistry killer who sits out on the three-point line and launches shots instead of ####ing underneath. He's a great offensive player, but he's not a very good rebounder, and his melt downs can cost you. He melted down in the playoffs, and it was a big reason why the Pistons got bounced.
Overview
Overall it was a very solid year for the Pistons. They were the league's sixth best offense, and really it was only for one reason. They didn't shoot the ball well, they weren't great at getting to the line, and they were only slightly above average at offensive rebounding. However, what they did do well was take care of the ball, with the league's best turnover ratio, and it had a huge effect on their offensive efficiency. Defensively they didn't give up easy shots, and opponents had the 5th worst eFG% against them. On the other hand, they were the 6th worst defensive rebounding team in the league, mostly due to Sheed, Webber, and Maxiell being below average rebounders for their position. In the playoffs, they they ran over Orlando, shut down the Chicago offense, and looked well on their way to the NBA Finals before they allowed LeBron to beat them single-handedly and then melted down in game 6.
Prediction
I don't think this team can win the title anymore. Don't get me wrong, I think they're a very talented team, and they could very well finish with the best record in the East, but I don't think they're a legitimate title contender anymore. When the Pistons were good, they played with a chip on their shoulder. They punched you in the mouth, and if they ever fell behind, they fed off it and came back stronger the next game. I think a lot of that mentality was brought by Ben Wallace and by Larry Brown's focus on defense and toughness (say what you want about Larry, but he's great at creating and funneling that underdog mentality). Last postseason, they got hit in the mouth and they just crumbled instead of fighting back. You could see it in their faces, they don't respect Flip Saunders and they don't bring the same fighting mentality that made them so good. I just can't see that coming back this year. The bottom line is this: even though the roster is very similar, there's no way that '04 Pistons team would've let someone score 25 straight points against them, there's no way. There was a nasty, Bad Boys-type attitude that the current team just doesn't have.
Coach: Mike Brown 2006-2007 Record: 50-32 06-07 Expected Record: 51-31 Offensive Rating: 105.5 (18th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 101.3 (4th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 48.4% (22nd in NBA) Possessions per 48: 90.8 (18th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
LeBron actually had a worse season last year than the two preceding years. Of course, nobody is ever going to remember that. What they are going to remember is how he dropped 25 in a row on Detroit to push the Cavs into the Finals and silence his doubters. We've seen a great work ethic from LeBron so far in his career, and his jumpshot looked much better this summer. He's going to have to carry an even bigger load this year on a worse team, so expect his production to be bordering on obscene this year.
People underrated Ilgauskas. He's got a solid jumper and is really good on the pick and pop, plus he draws double teams against lesser defenders because at 7'3 his hook shot is so hard to challenge. His biggest strength is on the offensive class; you wouldn't think he'd be great cause he's not at all quick or athletic, but he uses his height and positioning to get a bunch of offensive boards. He's among the best in the league at tipping in his own misses. That said, he's got quite a few weaknesses, chief among them being his complete lack of speed and quickness. Quicker post players can exploit him on the defensive end, and the team has to play at a slow pace with him in the lineup because he can't get up and down the floor.
Drew Gooden is an excellent rebounder because he's a quick leaper and goes out and pursues the ball. He and Big Z give the Cavs two of the league's best offensive rebounders. He's got a very solid mid-range jumper that he sometimes takes way too much instead of being more aggressive going to the rim. The big problem with Gooden is his tendency to make really stupid mental mistakes or completely zone out for a few plays. That's fine over the course of the regular season cause it's going to even itself out and his play is going to be good enough to offset it. In the postseason though, those mental mistakes become much more costly, and Gooden becomes a bit more of a liability.
Larry Hughes is a terrible fit for this team. He's never been a good shooter, but he was able to be successful in Washington where they played at high pace and he was able to be a penetrator who got to the line a lot. On this Cavs team, they play a slow pace and their entire offense is predicated around getting the ball in LeBron's hands and letting him create. They really need to trade him for a shooter, but he's been so bad that he has very little trade value. Oh yeah, and to top it all off he's injury-prone.
I think Daniel Gibson is going to do alright. He's not a true point guard, but this Cavs system doesn't really need that because LeBron is the guy who is the creator for this team. What he can do is shoot jumpshots, something that the Cavs desperately need. If Mike Brown would actually put in an offensive system that goes beyond "give the ball to LeBron and let him create", they might need a real point guard, but Gibson will be alright for now.
The Cavs just came to terms with Pavlovic, and good thing too, cause this bench is all kinds of bad without him (either he or Gibson will be on the bench). Marshall, Snow, and Jones are all below-average guys. Pavlovic is a guy who can shoot the ball (40% from deep last year), but also showed more aggressiveness in looking for his shot in the playoffs, which is a promising sign. Still, he's coming in without having been with the team through camp and preseason, so it might take him a few weeks or even a month into the season to get back to the player we saw at the end of last year. The other guy who can contribute off the bench is Devin Brown, who had a good half a season with the Hornets last year. Brown isn't as good a shooter or defender as Pavlovic is, but he's a superior rebounder and penetrator. Both players though are average at best.
X-Factor: Anderson Varejao - Varejao is the real difference maker off the bench with his energy, defense, and rebounding, but the Cavs haven't been able to sign him yet. If they can ink him to a reasonable deal, he comes back and gives them another tough rebounding big man in their rotation. If he doesn't, Ilgauskas and Gooden have to log major minutes because the other frontcourt options on this team stink.
Overview
I shudder to think how bad this team would be offensively without LeBron. They were 22nd in the league in effective field goal percentage, and 24th in getting to the free throw line, despite King James being #3 in the league in FT attempts. They salvaged a somewhat decent offense by turning all those missed shots into second chances by posting the 3rd highest offensive rebounding rate in the league. Fortunately though, the Cavs were among the league's best defensive teams, and they were solid across the board in forcing misses and turnovers along with keeping teams off the offensive glass. They rode their defense and some sublime performances by LeBron to the NBA Finals, where the Spurs quickly showed us what happens when an elite defensive team faces a one-man offense. Unfortunately for the Cavs, their cap situation is so poor that they didn't really have any assets to make a move with and had to stay pat with the roster they had. In addition to that, Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic effectively held out all summer (the team is still waiting to resign Varejao), meaning the team got worse, not better.
Prediction
For the record, I think that standing pat on this roster was the correct thing to do. Sure, Cavs fans won't like it, but the fact is that last year's team wasn't even all that good, and they really had nothing to work with in the offseason to improve their team. If they wait a season and don't make a panic trade, then they have expiring contracts and a first round draft pick to work with in the trade market.
As it stands right now, this team is very poorly constructed. Hughes and Gooden are both more suited to an up-tempo system, and LeBron is one of the deadliest transition players in the game. However, the Cavs can't run because they don't really have a point guard and mainly because Ilgauskas just can't keep up. Mike Brown might be a good defensive coach, but his halfcourt sets stink, so this team will be limited offensively. I can't see them missing the playoffs because they have LeBron and they're in the East, but I don't see them going very far once they get there. Certainly, there will no return to the Finals in an improved conference.
Coach: Scott Skiles 2006-2007 Record: 49-33 06-07 Expected Record: 52-30 Offensive Rating: 105.2 (20th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 99.4 (1st in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 49.3% (17th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 93.6 (6th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Hinrich is a great example of how a hard-working player can make the most out of his talent. He doesn't have extraordinary physical tools, but he's made himself into a very good defender with his tenacity and smarts. He can defend both guard positions, though he usually guards the opposing shooting guard mask Ben Gordon's defensive deficiencies. Offensively, he's not really a pure point guard, his assist ratio is significantly lower than most top point guards. However, he is a really excellent shooter, especially from long range.
Ben Gordon is a pretty one-dimensional player, but his one dimension is pretty darn strong. He's an excellent shooter both from long-range and off the mid-range pull-up. He's also one of the league's best young clutch players, he's shown he has ice in his blood every since his days at UCONN.
Luol Deng is really good, and he's going to get even better. Right now he's primarily a mid-range player, which he's very effective at, but he doesn't do a good job getting to the line and he doesn't really have a post-up game yet. He's a hard worker who started learning the game late, so you know he's going to improve on that. If he continues to develop as an offensive player, he could be a mid-20s scorer. Defensively, he's the kind of long-armed athlete that can make a difference all over the floor. Right now, he's a very good man defender, but he's still learning how to be a help defender. He could easily post 2 steals and 2 blocks a game eventually.
Joe Smith was a decent veteran pickup, but I'm not sure he's much of an upgrade at all over the other guys they have. He's a mediocre player who isn't going to give them the post presence that they need.
Ben Wallace is still a very good defensive player, but he's not the elite defender and rebounder that he used to be, and he's way overpaid since he's such a terrible offensive player. Effectively, they've got an older, less effective version of Tyson Chandler for 5 million more a year. You think they'd like that deal back?
I hated the Noah pick. He can end up being a decent defender and rebounder, but he's an absolutely terrible offensive player. No way he ever becomes anything more than a slightly better version of Anderson Varejao. The last thing the Bulls need is an offensively deficient energy guy.
X-Factor: Tyrus Thomas - He's the one guy on this team who could become a legitimate post scoring threat. He's already a really good shotblocker, and he's such a freakish athlete that he elevate over anyone in the post. If he can improve his short jumpshot and start developing some post moves, he could make this team really good.
Overview
This was the best defensive team in the league last year. They forced a lot of bad shots and caused a whole bunch of turnovers (2nd in the league in TO rate). Offensively, they were pretty darn bad. They turned the ball over a bunch, and they were bad at getting to the free throw line (22nd in the league). Their defense was good enough to lead them through the regular season and net them the 3rd seed in the East, but their limited offense was held to less than 90 points in each of their 4 playoff losses to Detroit. Even a great defense can't make up for offense like that.
Prediction
Even though the team is a year older and they added a solid veteran in Smith, their essential problem remains the same. All of their offense is dependent on perimeter shooting, and they don't have anyone who can consistently get to the rim and finish or draw the foul. It's not just that they don't have a post scorer, it's that, good as Gordon and Hinrich are, they don't have that dynamic slasher who can grind out tough points. Still, they've got tons of depth and talent, and the development of Thomas and Deng could fix a lot of their problems. The other thing that you have to consider that the Bulls have more opportunity to make a big trade than anyone else. Any deal for Kobe probably won't until later in the year, once Nocioni and Hinrich's deals become tradeable for their full value. The Lakers were asking for Deng, Gordon, Thomas and Noah for Kobe, but they just don't have the leverage to get that much back for him unless other teams get involved. Reportedly, they're now asking for something based around Gordon, Nocioni, Thomas, and Duhon. If the Bulls pulled that off and got Kobe while keeping Nocioni, they immediately become one the favorites for the title (that deal would have to take place later in the year). The other player the Bulls might be able to make a move for would be Jermaine O'Neal, who would give them a decent post scorer who also plays excellent defense. As currently constructed, the Bulls are a strong team, but they also have more potential than anyone to improve dramatically during the season.
Ugh, I just finished writing this whole thing, then had a problem with my PC and lost it all. Alas. Such is my dedication to bringing you people all the latest and greatest NBA news that I will tirelessly type it all up again...or I'm just really bored right now and need something to do.
You know what I love about the NBA summer league? It isn't seeing how all the highly drafted rookies do. No, it's seeing all the guys who I remember from their college days, but who dropped off the face of the planet after failing to make it big in the pros. Guys like Josh Powell (who ruined a promising college career by leaving too early, not that I'm bitter), Brandon Bass (ditto), Von Wafer (seeing a trend?), my boy Julius Hodge (please Jules, do something this year so I have a State player to cheer for), and D'Or Fischer (anybody else remember him leading the nation in blocks?). Heck, we've even had a Mateen Cleaves sighting. Can't beat the NBA summer league for seeing those former college stars...well, except for maybe the NBDL.
So, sifting through the worthlessness that is most of the summer league, what are the few things that we can take from what we've seen so far?
Tyrus Thomas has apparently developed a solid mid-range jumpshot, which is big trouble for the rest of the league. Thomas might be the quickest big in the game, and if defenders can't lay off him from 15 feet, we might be seeing a whole lot more highlight reel dunks next year.
Marco Bellinelli has no conscience. Through 3 games, he's taken 56 shots at a rate of a shot every 2 minutes. Even in the not
ames has to be the MVP.
rleans. Chris Paul has to be the MVP.
ut the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.
gue, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.
terrible. One reason I liked them so much was because
an even slightly improved Darko would give them a much-needed shot-blocking
presence in the back of their defense. Instead, Darko has, amazingly, been
much, much worse than he was in Orlando
last year. Of course, I also though 42 or 43 wins would get you into the
playoffs out West, and that doesn’t appear to be the case at this point. Oh
well, they’ll at least put themselves in good position to get Mike Beasley or
DeAndre Jordan in the draft. 
as bad as they’ve been they’re only a game behind the Pacers
for the last playoff spot right now, but also because 2) it’s absolutely
unheard of for a team full of young players to take a huge step backwards like
this, and I think they’ll bounce back some and be respectable by season’s end.
defense, and they were the ‘95 Rockets and the ’01
Lakers (who don’t even really count because they played great defense the year
before and the year after and during the playoffs with essentially the same
team, and obviously didn’t care about the regular season this year). Moral of
the story is that defense is really important. 
If Atkins comes back
healthy or they can add one more shooter through a trade, I think this becomes
a very dangerous offensive team as well as a good defensive team, and that
makes them a contender. 
well as any team in the league. I still
don’t think they could beat the Spurs, but I think they could beat another team
from the West if San Antonio
doesn’t make the finals 
Boston’s 33-7 record and how KG has gotten
everyone playing great defense. I repeat, the MVP race is NOT EVEN CLOSE. Lebron
uses more of his team’s possessions than anyone outside of DWade, and his
offensive rating this year is 12 points higher than Flash! He averages 30-8-7
with 2 steals and a block, and he shoots almost 50%. Lebron’s AST% (an estimate
of the percentage of his teammates’ field goals his assists while on the court)
is 6th in the league. 6th! He’s one percentage point
behind Deron Williams! It’s not quite MJ numbers that we’re talking about here,
but we’re getting close. LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a
really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs. He’s the MVP, Period. 
ion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
pletely reinvented himself as a player when he came into the league. Did you realize that he shot 32% from behind the arc and 65% from the line in college? Now he's one of the league's best shooters. The common misconception about Redd is that he's only a shooter, where the reality is that over the last 3 years only about 25% of his shots have been threes and he gets to the line a lot. He's a very versatile and efficient scorer who doesn't make mistakes (#1 in career TO ratio among active players). He's really an elite player, and one of the underrated stars in the league.
row shooter. He's a good finisher on the break, but not much beyond that. I'd expect that once he proves he can come back strong from his surgery, Bobby Simmons will take most of the SF minutes. 
where his blocked shots got cut in half from his rookie year to last year. Offensively, he's an excellent passer and a really skilled scorer around the rim, but he really needs to work on his jump shot. His passing is really best-suited for playing out of the high post, but he's not a very good mid-range shooter. If he improves his jumper and free throw stroke, as well as returning to form as a shotblocker, he could develop into one of the league's best pure centers.
ost scorer. Offensively, O'Neal is way overrated. He falls in love with his mid-range jumper too much , so he shoots a poor percentage for an interior player and isn't an efficient scorer. He's a good player if you don't need him to be your main option, but he's not a good enough offensive player to be a team's primary scorer.
s not his strong suit.
y to correct. He's probably never foing to be a very good defender since he's not especially quick and is undersized, but he makes up for it some by being a good rebounder.
egitimate scoring options, the Pacers finished with the league's worst offense, despite being the 10th best offensive rebounding team. Truly, this was a painful team to watch. With no first round draft picks and not a lot of cap flexibility, the Pacers were left with basically the same roster, filled with a lot of overpaid players and not a lot of young talent.
ave a whole lot else going for him, but he's successful by being so good at what he does. He's in such great condition that Detroit can keep running him off of screens all game and he just wears defenders out, almost like a physical running back wearing down a defense.
as a guard (shooting, size, decision-making) aren't going to decline with age, so he should maintain his effectiveness for a few more years. 
ayer and needs to add more strength, and he's been turnover prone so far in his career. If he becomes a real force in the Piston's rotation, they could be really scary, but I'm not sure that's going to be the case.
cago offense, and looked well on their way to the NBA Finals before they allowed LeBron to beat them single-handedly and then melted down in game 6.
how he dropped 25 in a row on Detroit to push the Cavs into the Finals and silence his doubters. We've seen a great work ethic from LeBron so far in his career, and his jumpshot looked much better this summer. He's going to have to carry an even bigger load this year on a worse team, so expect his production to be bordering on obscene this year.
. The big problem with Gooden is his tendency to make really stupid mental mistakes or completely zone out for a few plays. That's fine over the course of the regular season cause it's going to even itself out and his play is going to be good enough to offset it. In the postseason though, those mental mistakes become much more costly, and Gooden becomes a bit more of a liability. 
nch is Devin Brown, who had a good half a season with the Hornets last year. Brown isn't as good a shooter or defender as Pavlovic is, but he's a superior rebounder and penetrator. Both players though are average at best.
er than most top point guards. However, he is a really excellent shooter, especially from long range. 
good man defender, but he's still learning how to be a help defender. He could easily post 2 steals and 2 blocks a game eventually.
anyone in the post. If he can improve his short jumpshot and start developing some post moves, he could make this team really good.