Here's the thing with the MVP race this year, you can make a legitimate argument for four different candidates. The candidates are all so worthy and so different that I wouldn't argue anyone's choice if they backed it up logically. Of course, there are a lot of illogical arguments out there, and I have no qualms about destroying them with my scathing wit :P. Also, if you're going to argue that the MVP is anyone other than KG, LeBron, Kobe or CP3, you have to wear the stupid helmet.
What makes this MVP race especially difficult to decide is that the candidates are so completely different. Do you think that the MVP is the best player on the best team? It's hard to argue against KG there. Do you think the MVP is the most productive player? LeBron has a pretty strong claim to that distinction. You can make the case for anyone, and a lot of it depends on what you think the MVP award means. How do you define "Valuable"? As I write this, I'm not even sure who my pick is, I'm just going to make the best case I can for each player.
Make no mistake, this is not who I think will win the award. Kobe's going to win it, I don't think there's any doubt about that. This is who should win the award.
I'm gonna throw some statistics out there that you might not know. They aren't necessary to understand, but I'm just putting them out there. I explain them quickly in this post, a little way down the page.
LeBron James Relevant Statistics: 51.8% eFG 71.2% FT 11.1 RB% 37.3 AST% 11.4 TO% 33.5 Usage% 116 ORtg
So, halfway through the year I announced that LeBron was my midseason MVP. What's changed since then? For LeBron and the Cavs, absolutely nothing. LeBron's stats are almost identical now to what they were at the halfway point. The Cavs' record at that point was 23-18, they ended the season at 45-37, almost exactly the same winning percentage. In fact, what I said at the time looks almost prescient in retrospect,
"LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a
really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs."
Quite simply, LeBron has been superb this season. Make whatever arguments you want about clutch or leadership or whatnot, but the fact of the matter is that LeBron has produced more, night-in and night-out, than any player in the league. To put things in perspective, the Cavs play the 6th slowest pace in the league, almost 10 possessions per game less than league-leading Denver. Despite that, he's putting up the kind of numbers that Oscar Robertson put up in his prime. He absolutely denies comparison, Within a few years, we could legitimately be talking about him in the "Greatest Of All Time" sense.History may show us to be fools if we deny him here. LeBron James has to be the MVP.
Chris Paul Relevant Statistics 52.4% eFG
85.1% FT 6.2 RB% 52.2
AST%
12.1 TO% 25.7
Usage%
125 ORtg
It's taken Chris Paul a mere three seasons to draw comparisons to Isiah Thomas in his prime. Three years to rejuvenate basketball in New Orleans. Three years to become the unquestioned leader of the #2 seed in the toughest conference in history. Three years to give the Hornets their first ever division title. Three years. That's how long it took him to average 21 points and 12 assists per game. You know how long you've got to go back to find the last guy who went 20 and 10 with assists? All the way back to the 92-93 season, when Timmy Hardaway did it. Even more impressive? Paul did it while playing on the 5th slowest team in the league. When he was on the floor, CP3 assisted on 52% of his teammates' field goals. The only other guy ever to do that? It's this guy you might have heard of, goes by "Stockton". He's responsible for single-handedly making Tyson Chandler an offensive force. You want to see improving your teammates? The two seasons before he came to New Orleans, Chandler shot 52.3% on 4.4 FGA per game. In two seasons with Paul, Chandler has shot 62.3% on 7.1 FGA per game, and the Paul-to-Chandler alley-oop has become one of the NBA's signature plays. In three short years he's taken the title of "best point guard" from a hall of famer still playing some of the best ball of his career. He's one of the most efficient players in the NBA, he's the league's best point guard, and he saved basketball in New Orleans. Chris Paul has to be the MVP.
Over the last 5 years, Kobe Bryant has arguably been the best basketball player on the planet. He's been to the Finals, he's carried a mediocre team to the playoffs the last two years, he's dropped 81 points in a single game, and he made All-Defensive Team after All-Defensive Team. In all that, he's been passed over for the MVP award time and again. People always had complaints: He shared credit with Shaq, his team wasn't good enough, he wasn't a good teammate, he looked for his own scoring too much. Well, no such complaints this year. Surrounded by a core of talented young players. Kobe has moved past his off-season discontent and been the leader the Lakers need. His guiding of an injury-plagued team to the #1 seed has been nothing short of amazing. Consider the Lakers' two main trade acquisitions this year. Paul Gasol has played effectively 26 of the 37 games since he came over, and Trevor Ariza has played a mere 24 of the 70 games since he arrived. Add to that the fact that centers Andrew Bynum and Chris Mihm have spent the majority of the year on the DL, and you see what a truly impressive feat it was for Kobe to take this team to the top of the Western Conference. He's become the player we kept saying he should be, and his team sits on top of the toughest conference of all time. Kobe Bryant has to be the MVP.
Kevin Garnett Relevant Statistics 53.9% eFG
80.1% FT 16.8 RB% 19.9
AST%
110.8 TO% 25.5
Usage%
118 ORtg
Two numbers ultimately describe Kevin Garnett's impact this season. 66 and 24. That's the Celtics' win total from this year and their win total last year. Lest this 42 game swing doesn't impress you, remember back to the beginning of the season, back before the Celtics started demolishing everyone in their way, back when no one was sure how this would work. 3 superstars with 0 championship rings between them, not much of a bench and a reliance on young, unproven guys to fill the other spots on the court. We knew they'd be pretty good, we certainly knew they'd be better than last year, but no one was ready for this. 66-16, the best record in the league wire-to-wire, a huge +10.26 point differential (3.5 points higher than second-place Utah), and the best defense in the league by a long shot. More than anyone else, Garnett's impact goes beyond statistics (and that's saying something, since his are quite impressive). His arrival brought about a culture shift in Boston. His intensity has ratcheted up the defensive play of every other member of the team. His deft passing in the post and willingness to give them the ball has instilled confidence in guys like Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Leon Powe. His presence has drawn in free agents like James Posey, P.J. Brown and Sam Cassell to give the Celtics veteran depth. As far as overall impact on a franchise, it's hard to argue anyone has done more than Garnett. He's the best defender in the game, he turned his team around, and he rejuvenated basketball in Boston. Kevin Garnett has to be the MVP
There are legitimate cases to be made for all four candidates. However, we've got to pick one, so who's it going to be?
LeBron might be the best basketball player on the planet, but his team hasn't been impressive this year. Despite their overall record, the Cavs actually have a negative point differential. Basically, they're lucky to have even broken .500, much less be a 45 win team. How much fault does LeBron take for that? I'm not inclined to criticize him much, since he's been surrounded by a truly sucktastic supporting cast this season. However, he certainly doesn't have the defensive impact that Kobe or Garnett have, and I'm not sure Chris Paul hasn't actually had the better offensive season.
Paul has certainly put up impressive numbers and led his team to be a lot better than they were supposed to be. However, he's also got some pretty solid teammates around him. Peja's shooting stroke and David West's solid all-around game (by the way, even though people keep saying it, he's still underrated) really complement his skills and give the Hornets a strong team. Unlike last year, and unlike the Lakers this year, Paul's Hornets have stayed healthy and haven't had to deal with much adversity during the season. Also, of all these 4, Paul is probably the weakest defensively.
Kobe's overall production and statistical impact just don't measure up to LeBron and Paul. Those two are having, quite simply, transcendent seasons. His season certainly doesn't jump off the page like the others do. Also, the MVP award isn't a career achievement award, it's an individual regular season award. Frankly, Kobe has had better seasons, and just because he didn't win it then doesn't mean that he should win it now. Sure, he has done a great job leading the Lakers, but does it even remotely compare to the job that Garnett has done in Boston?
Garnett might be the main force behind Boston's turnaround, but it's not like he did it alone. Having teammates like Paul Pierce and Ray Allen certainly helps. Garnett also isn't the guy who is going to take the tough shot at the end o####ame, he's never relished that role. Can you be the MVP if your team goes to other guys in the clutch, especially when compared to these other three guys?
The Pick
I've swung back and forth on this in the last few weeks more times than I care to count. As I said above, I hadn't decided who this pick would be even as I wrote the post. After poring over everything, I realized that my MVP vote has to go to Kevin Garnett. Here's the thing, all week I've kind of dismissed KG's candidacy. I thought he was the weakest of the four, not on the same level as Kobe, Paul and LeBron. However, as I looked over all that he's done this year and the numbers that he has put up, it becomes harder and harder to find any reason not to pick him. I'm not concerned with the fact that he isn't their go-to clutch scorer, I'm much more concerned with what happens in the first 45 minutes of the game than what happens in the last 3. I remember back to the criticism of the Ray Allen trade and how that only really turned into a good thing once KG was on board. I thought back to how uncertain I was of the Celtics at the beginning of the season. I thought about how Garnett transformed a team with no other guys who you could call reliable top-tier defenders and transformed them into one of the best (if not the best) defensive teams of the past ten years. His defensive presence, the way he has completely altered the team's atmosphere and the incredible turnaround from worst to first all point to one thing.
Well, I wanted to make this post a while ago, but I've been fighting sickness for the last two weeks, so it's slightly belated. Anyway, I'm gonna give you my All-Star Teams, and explain to you why some of the guys you might expect to be there aren't.
First of all, note that this is not a lifetime achievement award. I do not care what you did last year, nor do I care what you might be expected to do for the rest of the year. Performance is what matters.
Second, while I do consider your team's record, it's not a huge factor to me. I'm not going to penalize you for having crappy teammates.
Finally, I'm going to list some relevant statistics for each player. These are not going to be PPG or RPG statistics, cause frankly those are usually poor measures of performance and you can find them anywhere. Because I'm going to be listing some statistics that some of you might not recognize, I'll give you a quick synopsis of some of them.
eFG (effective field goal percentage) - This is simply field goal percentage, except it gives extra credit for three-pointers.
ORtg (Offensive Rating) - A measure of how efficient an offensive player is. It's a ridiculously complicated formula, but basically it estimates how many points a player creates per every 100 possessions they use.
USG% (Usage %)- The estimated percentage of the team's possessions that a player uses while they're on the floor. As a general rule, as USG% goes up, ORtg goes down (harder to be efficient the more you're asked to do). Point Guards often have lower USG% (around 20%), whereas high-volume scorers (DWade, LeBron, Kobe, etc.) usually have a USG% of 30% or more.
AST% - An estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals that you assist on while you're on the floor.
TO% - estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions. Anything below 10 is outstanding, over 20% is usually pretty bad.
REB% - An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds that a player grabbed while he was on the floor.
(most statistics courtesy of basketballreference.com)
That said, on to the teams.
xphoenix87's Eastern Conference All-Stars
Starting Lineup
Guard-Chauncey Billups (53.4% eFG, 90.4% FT, 22.5 USG%, 128 ORtg, 34.6 AST%, 12.7 TO%) One of the steadiest players in the league, and one of the most ruthlessly efficient offensive players out there. He's a nightmare to match up against for most teams because he's so good at backing down opposing point guards and abusing them with short turnaround jumpers or headfaking them into fouling him. Billups was an easy pick.
Guard-Jose Calderon (58.7% eFG, 91.7% FT, 130 ORtg, 44.8 AST%, 13.8 TO%, 5.58 A/T) I know, he didn't even make the All-Star team, I must be out of my mind to have him as a starter, right? Well, lets look at him versus the actual All-Star starters, Jason Kidd and Dwayne Wade. There's been a lot of hype about Kidd and his near-triple double pace this season, but how about the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.
Forward-LeBron (33.6 USG%, 116 ORtg, 51.3% eFG, 37.8 AST%, 11 TO%, 11.8 REB%) Any argument that LeBron should be the starter here? Didn't think so, moving on.
Forward-KG (24.2 USG%, 120 ORtg, 55.1% eFG, 17.2 REB%, 20.5 AST%) More than any statistic, the impact of Garnett is most pronounced in these numbers.
106.9 24
98 38
The first two numbers are Boston's defensive rating and win total from last year. The second two are those same numbers from this year. Defensive impact has been notoriously tricky to quantify, but the effect of Garnett on Boston has been palpable.
Center-Dwight Howard (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 21.6 REB%, 60.2% eFG) Again, anyone want to argue this? Howard is easily the most dominant center in the conference, if not the entire league.
Bench
Guard-Dwyane Wade (33 USG%, 103 ORtg, 35.8 AST%, 9 FTA/36, 75.6% FT, 46.8% eFG) Is he having a down year? Yeah, sure, but he's still Dwyane Wade. He still gets to the line as well as anyone in the league, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.
Guard-Rip Hamilton (24.7 USG%, 114 ORtg, 53.1% eFG, 23 AST%, 10.4 TO%, 81.5% FT) Honestly, I searched really hard to find someone who deserved this spot, maybe someone that everyone else had missed. No dice. As I mentioned above, the guards in the East are so bad that I'm really kind of reaching here (as opposed to the West, which is overflowing with candidates). In the end, nobody I looked at was having a better year than Hamilton. A lot of people like Ray Allen here because of how well Boston has played, but I'm not buying that, and Rip is having a better year. Hamilton is an extremely efficient scorer, and might be the league's best at using off the ball screens (It's between he and Kevin Martin IMO). In addition, he's also a very solid defensive player (as with most Pistons players).
Forward-Caron Butler (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 50.8% eFG, 91.3% FT, 20.5 AST%) Butler supposedly made "The Jump" last year when he made it into his first All-Star game. Well, if he was jumping last year, he's flying this year. His turnovers are down, his assists are way up, his shooting percentages are way up, and he's carrying the Wizards in Gilbert Arenas' absence. His mid-range game has always been among the best in the league, but this year he has really increased his range, shooting 36.5% from long-range.
Forward-Paul Pierce (25.7 USG%, 110 ORtg, 49.6% eFG, 22.8 AST%, 8.8 REB%) I was trying to decide between Pierce and Richard Jefferson here, and really the difference between the two is minimal. Their stat profiles are so similar that it's almost impossible to chose between them. Jefferson is putting up better pure scoring numbers, but Pierce is the better distributor and rebounder. In the end, it comes down to Pierce being the superior defensive player and more proven star.
Center-Chris Bosh (28.6 USG%, 117 ORtg, 14.9 REB%, 10.2 TO%, 48.9% eFG, 85.6% FT) Even if Bosh didn't actually deserve this, he's really the only choice. At any rate, Bosh is having the best season of his career. He's often the forgotten 4th member of that LeBron, Wade, Melo draft class, but he has absolutel y kept himself at that level. He hasn't yet become a dominant defensive force, but he's definitely improving as a disruptive force who can defend without fouling. Offensively, he rivals Garnett and Duncan as the best face-up post men in the league. He's got a great jab step, and he's so quick and so long that he's almost impossible to guard without help. That quickness means he gets to the line a TON, and his FT% has shot up to 85% this season. He's also got great hands, makes quick decisions, and picks his spots well, leading to very low turnover numbers for a guy his size who has such a high usage rate.
Wild Card #1-Richard Jefferson (27.5 ORtg, 111 ORtg, 48.5% eFG, 80.4% FT) If I struggled with Jefferson vs. Pierce above, it didn't take a lot of thought to put him here. A bit overlooked in the Nets' collapse, Jefferson is completing his transformation from a role player who finished Jason Kidd alley-oops into the team's star-quality first option. It isn't the most efficient year of Jefferson's career, but he's taking on a much bigger role in the offense, and he's thriving.
Wild Card #2-Josh Smith (26.5 USG%, 100 ORtg, 13 REB%, 45.3% eFG, 20 AST%, 3.4 BPG, 2 SPG) There were three people I considered here: Smith, Antwan Jamison, and Tayshaun Prince. Jamison is having a solid year, and he's rebounding than he ever has in his career. He doesn't make many mistakes (4th lowest TO% in the league), but the fact that he shoots 30% from the field really hurts him. He also doesn't play defense, and he just isn't a good enough offensive player to make up for that and get on the team for me. Prince is a fantastic player who often gets overlooked in Detroit, but he's a matchup nightmare with his length and versatility, and he's one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. However, if I'm going to go with a defensive force, it's got to be Smith. He might not have much polish as an offensive player yet, but Smith is the rare player who can be a dominating defensive force against multiple positions. Like Andrei Kirilenko, he can match up with wing defenders, but he's also a force defending the rim and drifting into passing lanes. The Hawks are 9th in the league in defense, and the biggest reason is Smith's game-altering presence.
Some guys of note on the outside looking in
Kidd - People get wrapped up in the whole triple-double thing, but the fact is that Kidd has really fallen off as an offensive player. He can't finish around the rim at all anymore, and he's turning the ball over at a prodigious rate. People need to start getting used to the idea that the 34-year old Kidd may not be an elite point guard any more.
Jamison - I went over this above. Very good offensive player, very bad defensive player.
Michael Redd - What I said about Jamison, only more pronounced. To say that he plays matador defense is an understatement.
Hedo Turkoglu - Hedo is a fantastic story this year as he has really improved his play and become a key part of Orlando's success. He's had some truly great moments at the ends of games too. However, I think he's much more a top-tier role player than he is an all-star. He isn't a good defender, and his offensive numbers are good, but not great.
Joe Johnson - He's only noteworthy because he's on the actual all-star team. In reality he's having his worst season as a Hawk, and doesn't deserve to be on the team.
Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.
Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.
I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-####, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.
In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.
Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.
Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.
Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.
It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.
Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.
Coach: Doc Rivers 2006-2007 Record: 24-58 06-07 Expected Record: 31-51 Offensive Rating: 102.9 (29th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 107.2 (17th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 47.9% (28th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 92.0 (12th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Roster turnover anyone?
I've got to say, I'm sold on the big three. There are stars this wouldn't work for, but these guys all are desperate for a title, they're professional and likable, and they're willing to do whatever it takes to get that ring.
Pierce is a really good offensive player. He's a decent rebounder, passes the ball well, and is a really good shooter. Undoubtedly though, his biggest strength is getting to the free throw line, he's almost always among the league leaders in FT attempts, where he shoots 80%.
Be prepared to watch Ray Allen shoot an absolutely absurd percentage this year. Pierce and Garnett are going to get him a ton of open looks, and he's the best pure shooter in the league. He's going to be a defensive liability, and Doc Rivers is going to have to be careful with his minutes since he's the most likely member of the 3 to break down,but he's a tremendous complement to The Truth and The Big Ticket.
You know, I think we've started to overlook KG as he's struggled in futility the last few years, up to the point where we actually thought Al Jefferson and change was decent trade value for him. He might still be the game's best rebounder in the league and he's a great passer. Defensively, he's one of the best players of the last decade, he's got incredible defensive instincts. You could see his frustration mounting with each season he was asked to single-handedly carry the Wolves. He looks happier this preseason than we've seen him in years. I was all set to pan Boston for the Ray Allen move, but then McHale gift wrapped KG for them and it instantly changed their outlook. More than any either of the other two guys, he's the one that will make this work; he's desperate for a ring.
Rajon Rondo isn't much of an offensive player, but he's a great defender. He's got great quickness and really long arms that make him hell to play against. He's also a really good rebounder for a guard his size. He'll have to take on a much bigger role this year, probably playing 35-40 minutes a game because they don't have anyone behind him. For a first-year point guard, he actually performed pretty well last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him surprise people this season with a solid year.
Kendrick Perkins is a serviceable big man on a team like this. He plays good defense and is a decent rebounder. I wouldn't be surprised if KG makes him look really good this season by getting him a bunch of open looks.
The big weakness on this team is that the weak spots in their starting lineup (PG & C) have absolutely no help off the bench. Tony Allen, James Posey, Eddie Jones and Dahntay Jones make a decent group of backup forwards, but Scot Pollard and Glen Davis are the only real post players off the bench, and Gabe Pruitt is the only pure point. Since you can't expect any of those guys to contribute that much, they're going to have to shuffle people around. Pierce or Allen can both handle the ball well enough to take over the point a little bit. Garnett will play a good deal of center with Scalabrine or Pollard at PF.
Overview
It is almost useless to take a look at last year's team because so much is different now. The team underwent a huge shift in the offseason, bringing in two future Hall of Famers still near the top of their game. Interestingly enough, the Celts were actually a decent defensive team last year. They return most of their top defensive players (Rondo, Allen, Perkins) and added KG and Posey, which should give them a strong defensive team next year in addition to the offensive firepower of KG, Pierce, and Allen.
Prediction
I'm sold on this team. Allen, Pierce and KG are a great combination of star players who are hungry for a ring, and they have styles that compliment one another nicely. Do they have a great supporting cast? Not so much, but how much of a supporting cast do you really need with 3 guys like that? Also remember that any veteran free agent on a losing team who gets bought out (which happens almost every year it seems. Sam Cassell is the most likely candidate this year) will want to sign with the Celtics to gun for a ring. My only issue with this team is Doc Rivers, and if he'll have the common sense to manage the time of his 3 stars to keep them fresh for the playoffs. They may not have the best record in the East for the regular season, and they might get taken down by an early injury to a guy like Allen, but I think they're the Eastern conference's best shot to take out a Western team.
Start stockpiling provisions, the apocalypse is coming. The Hawks actually made the right move in this draft by taking the best player on the board and the best point guard on the board. The Hawks now have a scary core group of Law, Johnson, M. Williams, Childress, Smith, Horford, S. Williams, and Pachulia that could contend in the east for the next decade. Of course, this is the Hawks, and Billy Knight is still in charge, so that probably won't happen, but it's a very promising young group.
Boston Celtics - Thumbs Up
Picks - Gabe Pruitt (32), Glen Davis (35)
Well, it's hard to argue with basically trading the #5 pick for Ray Allen. Regardless of what happens with Allen's foot surgery and how his game will hold up with age, that's an incredibly cheap price for a guy with his talent. Their two draft picks, Pruitt and Davis, were both great values who went about 10 picks later than they should have. Pruitt should immediately help as a point guard with a jumpshot, and Davis was a great value who could turn out to be a star if he keeps his weight down. Few players in the draft were as adept post scorers as Davis; he's reminiscent of Zach Randolph without the off-the-court problems.
Charlotte Bobcats - On The Fence
Picks - Jared Dudley (22), Jermareo Davidson (36)
I was a huge fan of the Dudley pick when it happened, but I don't like it as much after the trade. Charlotte desperately needs more post players, especially with Okafor and May's health issues. Once they traded Wright, they didn't have that help coming in. I think they probably would've been better off with Tiago Splitter or Josh McRoberts there. I liked the trade, and there is the possibility that they could pick up another post in free agency, but that's a bit of a risk, as there aren't many good low post guys out there (Milicic and Varejao are really the headliners). Still, they did some good things and I like the way the franchise is heading in general.
I hate the Noah pick, absolutely hate it. He's an inferior player to Tyrus Thomas and Ben Wallace in almost every way. The Bulls are a legitimate post scorer away from being a championship contender, and they had Spencer Hawes on the board. Not only did they pass on Hawes, but they also didn't make a move on Zach Randolph. I still think they should pursue a deal for Jermaine O'Neal (Thomas, Noah, Thabo Sefolosha and sign & trade P.J. Brown), but they don't seem interested in that either. For a team so close to contending, the Bulls seem very hesitant to make an aggressive move, and that would scare me if I were a Bulls fan.
We've known for a while that Stuckey was their man, but I think they missed an opportunity when Nick Young fell to them. Stuckey is kind of a poor man's Randy Foye, and should be a decent combo guard in the league. However, Young has all-star level talent on the same level as Corey Brewer. Affalo is a Detroit-type player, but they don't really have a need at SG after taking Stuckey, and they had Marcus Williams, Glen Davis and Josh McRobert all available, who are better talents and need positions.
Indiana Pacers - ???
Picks - Stanko Barac (39)
I have no opinion. He's a face-the-basket 7-footer, and that rarely works out, but whatever.
Miami Heat - Thumbs Down
Picks - Daequan Cook (21)
Memo to Pat Riley: your team is aging quickly and you need to win now. Of all the gaps the Heat desperately need to fill, I don't think "inexperienced shooting guard with attitude problems" was one of them. If the Heat really wanted a shooter, Morris Almond was a much better pick there. Really, anyone was a better pick there. Kudos for bluffing Philly into giving up a second rounder to switch spots with you, but Cook is a terrible pick.
Milwaukee Bucks - On The Fence
Picks - Yi Jianlian (6), Ramon Sessions (56)
The decision on the Bucks' draft will be made sometime in the next few days as the Yi situation is fleshed out. If it turns out Yi isn't so averse to going to Milwaukee or if the Bucks trade him (Golden State is the likely candidate), then taking a chance on the best available talent was worth it. If not and Yi either doesn't show up or skulks through the season, then the Bucks made a terrible mistake. Time will tell on this one. Sessions was a great pick up that late though. He was a guy who people were talking about as a possible low first rounder after he had some impressive camps. Landing him at 56 was a great pick for the Bucks at a need position.
New Jersey Nets - Thumbs Up
Picks - Sean Williams (17)
I've wavered on this quite a bit, but in the end I think it was the right pick for the Nets. This is a franchise in limbo, and they need something big to happen. If Williams is able to display the kind of play that he showed at the beginning of the season for Boston College, this pick is a steal. It's a huge risk, but it's obvious that the Nets really thought this one out.
New York Knicks - Thumbs Down
Picks - Wilson Chandler (23), Demetris Nichols (53)
What will it take to get Isaiah Thomas fired? Check my last post if you want a detailed explanation of why the Zach Randolph trade was terrible for New York. Outside of that disaster, the Knicks reached on Wilson Chandler after they made a promise to him, they could've gotten him 10 picks later. I don't care if Isaiah knows talent, he's a crappy executive in every other facet.
Orlando Magic - Who Cares
Picks - Milovan Rakovic (60)
...Moving on.
Philadelphia 76ers - Thumbs Up
Picks - Thaddeus Young (12), Jason Smith (20), Derrick Byars (42), Herbert Hill (55)
I love almost everything about the Sixers' draft. Smith is a great pick for their PF need, Byars was an amazing value at 42, as was Hill at 55. However, I don't particularly like Young at 12, since I think Thornton and Wright were were better picks there. Also, they basically traded their 30th pick for the 42nd pick (cash considerations always bug me). All in all though, they had a very solid draft.
Toronto Raptors - Again, I Don't Care
Picks - Giorgos Printezis (58)
Darn this European influx. Again, I know nothing about this guy.
Washington Wizards - Thumbs Up
Picks - Nick Young (16), Dominic McGuire (47)
The Wizards got two steals where they were drafting. Young is a stud player who could've gone as high as #8 to Charlotte. McGuire is a great athlete who is a strong defender. For a pick that late, he's a great value.
Well, that's it for NBA stuff for a while. I'll post some on various deals that may happen in the offseason, but probably no more large NBA posts until I preview the next season.
I'm going to move on to the Eastern conference draft analysis tomorrow, but tonight I want to take a more in-depth look at the draft day trades, of which we had 3 major ones and a lot more minor ones.
ESPN has a full list of all the trades here, so you can check there for all the minor trades.
Trade #1
Boston sends Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, the #5 pick (Jeff Green) and a future second rounder to Seattle for Ray Allen and the #35 pick (Glen Davis)
First of all, this deal is a slam dunk for Seattle. They get younger by dumping Allen, get a solid player in West, and get the perfect guy to complement Durant in Green. There really is no downside to this trade for the Sonics. For the Celtics, it's a bit of a tougher call. I'm of the opinion that Boston needed to revamp and rebuild, but for the last few weeks, we've known that wasn't going to Danny Ainge's plan. From the perspective of improving the team to win now, which was apparently management's goal, this move makes a lot of sense. They paid a relatively low price for a guy who might be the league's best shooter and should pump in around 22 points a game fairly efficiently. Allen is also a guy who has wanted to play for Boston, which is always good. The real concern is that he is 31, coming off surgery for bone spurs in both his feet, and doesn't particularly strike you as a guy who will age well. Was it a perfect trade? No, but the cost was so low for Boston that I think they had to take a swing at it. They didn't give up Gerald Green or Al Jefferson to get him, and a core of Allen, Pierce, and Jefferson should put them in contention in the east. They also didn't trade away Theo Ratliff and his expiring contract, which gives them one more piece to work with to bring in more help. In addition to all that, it also paired Ray Allen with Allan Ray, which is just too awesome for words. Icing on the cake for Boston is that Glen Davis inexplicably fell to them at #35 with that pick, which gives this trade even more value. In the end I think it was the right thing to do for both squads, the deal was just too good a value for Boston.
Trade #2
Portland sends Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau and Fred Jones to New York for Steve Francis and Channing Frye.
I think I'm one of the few people who sees this as a terrible move for the Knicks. Sure, it's great value for a 20-10 guy. they basically traded Channing Frye for Zach Randolph, which is a pretty amazing deal. Why is this trade so bad then? First of all, aren't Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry basically the same player? they're both adept post scorers who have no interest in passing out of double teams or rebounding, and they've both had weight problems. Do you really think you can win a championship with a frontline of Curry and Randolph? You better, because they'll make over $100 mil together over the next 4 years. Also, does anybody actually believe that Randolph isn't going to get in trouble in New York? You take a known head-case guy and put him in New York, and you can bet we'll be hearing more from Zach Randolph before the end of next season. Lastly, how does David Lee get on the floor now? He played as well as anyone in a Knicks uniform and was easily their most efficient player last year, but how does he find PT behind Randolph and Curry? Now, I know this was a pretty low-cost deal, but the cost wasn't so much in the talent the Knicks gave up as it was in the cap space they destroyed. Now, the Knicks cap situation was nothing to be happy about, but at least they had some of their terrible large contracts coming off the books soon. Now they've taken Francis's nearly expired deal and replaced it with Randolph's monster of a contract. Sorry, I just don't get the reasoning. For Portland, I think it was an excellent move. I would've preferred if they'd gotten a lottery pick for trading him, but Frye is a pretty good prize all the same. A year ago, he was untouchable, but New York cooled on him after a lukewarm 2nd season. Just in case you're wondering, Francis is in the deal simply for salary purposes. Portland is reportedly working on a buyout with him that would probably cut his impact on the salary cap by about half before he comes off in 2 seasons.
Trade #3
Charlotte trades the #8 pick (Brandan Wright) to Golden State for Jason Richardson and the #36 pick (Jermareo Davidson)
First of all, like I said in my analysis of their draft, I love this trade for Golden State. They gave from a position of strength (aggressive wing players) to address a position of need (athletic posts who can defend the rim). Wright is, at very worst, a better version of Andris Biedrins. He's got huge potential and is hugely reminiscent of Chris Bosh coming out of college. I would not be surprised at all if he contributed immediately for them. For the Bobcats, I think the trade is a little more interesting. With Richardson's history of knee injuries, this one is a little risky, but if he stays healthy than the deal is a good one for Charlotte. Even after taking on J-Rich's contract, the Bobcats are still nearly $20 mil under the cap, which should be plenty to resign Gerald Wallace. Throwing Wallace and Richardson out on the wings is a scary prospect for the rest of the east. They took a chance and bought low on J-Rich's value, and I can't really fault them for that. They do have a serious frontcourt depth issue though. Okafor and May are the only 2 real competent posts (put your hand down Primoz Brezec, you don't count), and they both have injury history. If they don't pick up some sort of frontcourt answer in free agency (Anderson Varejao maybe?) then I think they're going to look back on this trade with regret, as they let a great young post go.
Well, there's a week left before the NBA draft, so it's time to take a look at what each team need to be doing with their picks. I'll be doing 4-5 teams a day to get through all 30 by draft day.
Atlanta Hawks
Lineup for 07-08 PG - Speedy Claxton, Tyronne Lue SG - Joe Johnson, Salim Stoudemire SF - Josh Smith, Josh Childress, Marvin Williams PF - Shelden Williams C - Zaza Pachulia, Lorenzen Wright
Picks 1 - 3 (3 overall) 1 - 11 (11 overall)
Ah, the Hawks. What a great way to start a draft preview, with possibly the most inept drafters of the last few years. The Hawks hold the key to the draft at the number 3 pick, since we all know who picks 1 and 2 are going to be. The Hawks need a frontline player who is better than Williams at that 4 spot, and they have the perfect player available in Al Horford, who the third best prospect on most everyone's list. However, complicating the situation is the fact that Atlanta also desperately needs a point guard, and the fact that they passed on both Chris Paul and Deron Williams makes it very hard to not take Mike Conley, the draft's premier point guard. The other option that seems like an outside possibility here is Brendan Wright, given Atlanta's penchant for drafting athletic swing forwards.
What Should They Do: Initially I was in the "draft Conley" camp, but after thinking about it some, I've changed my mind. The Hawks are in much the same position that the Detroit Lions were in with the NFL Draft. They've been burned for passing on point guards and overdrafting forwards, but, much like Calvin Johnson was for the Lions, Horford is pretty clearly the best player available, and it is a need position for the Hawks. So, what is Atlanta to do? There are two solutions that make sense. The first is to try and trade down with someone in the 5-7 range to take Conley and pick up an extra draft pick in the process. They could then look to take Spencer Hawes or Jo Noah at 11 if they're still around. If neither of them are around, they can try to trade down into the range of Sean Williams or Tiago Splitter, who are lottery talents but significant risks. The other option is to simply take Horford at 3 and address the point guard problem with Acie Law at 11. Either way, they should make a run on Steve Blake as a free agent to shore up the point guard spot until either Conley or Law develop. The Hawks have the potential to be a playoff team next year in a weak eastern conference, and they have the picks to shore up their weaknesses.
What They Will Do: Reports are that the Hawks are looking at Horford with their 3rd pick and that they like Javaris Crittenton with the 11th pick. Well, at least they'll get 1 out of 2 right. Crittenton is an intriquing prospect because he's got great size and handles the ball well for being 6'5". However, he's really raw and needs to learn how to manage a team, and he's probably at least 3 years away from being a real starting caliber point, and that's if he ever develops quality decision making. This being the Hawks though, they'll take the potential over the known winner in Law and continue you to be a disappointing franchise.
Boston Celtics
Lineup for 07-08
PG - Sebastian Telfair, Rajon Rondo SG - Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Gerald Green, Tony Allen, Allen Ray SF - Paul Pierce, Ryan Gomes PF - Al Jefferson, Brian Scalabrine, Leon Powe C - Kendrick Perkins, Theo Ratliff
Picks
1 - 5 (5 overall) 2 - 2 (32 overall)
Well, I think it's safe to say the Celtics won't be aiming for a shooting guard. The word on the street is that Danny Ainge wants to bring in some veteran help for Paul Pierce. Honestly, I don't know what to do with this roster. There's a good bit of young talent, but there's also a lot of dead weight. They've tried to get KG, and agreed to a deal in principle, but KG didn't want to go to Boston. If Ainge wants to make a move for a veteran, a trade that makes sense is to bring Shawn Marion in as part of a 3-way deal that sends KG to Phoenix (Marion to Boston, KG to Phoenix, Ratliff, Kurt Thomas, Celtics #5, Phoenix #24 and Gerald Green to Minnesota is the bare bones of that one). Between Marion, Pierce, and Jefferson, the Celtics could make a decent run in the East. If they keep the big, they're probably looking at either Mike Conley or Corey Brewer. The verdict is still out on Rajon Rondo, and Conley is a stud at the point. If they're keeping the pick, it probably means they'll be in the business of moving Pierce, which means Brewer is the best value at that pick.
What They Should Do: I'm actually pretty torn on this one. I'm usually of the opinion that if you're not contending for a championship, you should be building towards it. I don't think a core of Pierce, Marion, and Jefferson can win a title with what Boston has around them. However, I also think Boston has a lot of bad contracts and dead weight that are hurting them on the rebuilding front. If they can get Marion or another strong veteran without giving up Jefferson, than they're probably best off doing that and having some playoff success as they rebuild. If not, take Brewer and rebuild.
What They Will Do: Eh, who knows, it's Danny Ainge.
Charlotte
Roster for 07-08
PG - Raymond Felton, Brevin Knight SG - SF - Walter Hermann, Adam Morrison PF - Sean May, Emeka Okafor, Othella Harrington C - Jake Voskuhl, Primo Brezec
Picks
1 - 8 (8 overall) 1 - 22 (22 overall)
Well, bit of a sparse roster there. The Cats are depressingly sparse on the wing, and they need rebounding and toughness in the post. Luckily, help awaits in free agency. Chances are that either Rashard Lewis will be coming to Charlotte, or Gerald Wallace won't be leaving. If they can also keep Matt Carroll around (and they should), that helps a lot with those weaknesses. They'd love to grab a shooting guard at the 8th pick, but nobody really fits there unless Corey Brewer drops like a rock. If they could trade down a few picks to get Nick Young or Rodney Stuckey it would be a much better fit. With the 22nd pick, they can address their need in the post with Sean Williams or Tiago Splitter, lottery talents who will slip because of the significant risk involved in drafting them.
What They Should Do: Trade down a few spots if they can, but draft Nick Young even if they can't. He's a great talent who is on par with Brewer if he can get his head on straight. At 22, they should be able to grab Splitter, Williams or Jason Smith to help in the post.
What They Will Do: They'll probably draft Jo Noah, who is my least favorite player in the draft, just to spite me. I'm prepared for this to happen, but I don't have to like it.
Chicago Bulls
Roster for 07-08
PG - Kirk Hinrich, Chris Duhon SG - Ben Gordon, Thabo Sefolosha SF - Luol Deng, Victor Khryapa, Adrian Griffin PF - Tyrus Thomas, Mike Sweetney C - Ben Wallace
It's a good time to be a Bulls fan. They've got an amazing young core of players and they've got a mid lottery pick to work with. There's two things the Bulls can do with this pick. The first is to keep it and take either Spencer Hawes or Yi Jianlian to complement their other young guys. Hawes would be my preference since he's a polished post scorer who could contribute immediately in an area that the Bulls are desperately lacking. Apparently the Bulls are real high on Yi though, who could provide a versatile scorer at the 4 spot. The other option is to trade the pick for help in the post. My favorite trade idea is Zach Randolph for the #9 pick and Chris Duhon. The Bulls don't give up that much, and they get a proven post scorer who would instantly make them a title contender. The later picks are harder to forcast since second round picks typically end up just being the best value available at the spot, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick up someone like Herbert Hill, Kyle Visser, or Jermareo Davidson to groom in the center spot. Another guy I think they'd grab if he fell to them is Jared Jordan, who can contribute immediately, and is a better pure point than Hinrich.
What They Should Do: Trade for Randolph and proceed to dominate the East with a deeper and more balanced lineup than anyone.
What They Will Do: Just because it doesn't make sense, they'll probably try to trade up and make sure they get Yi, and if that fails they'll draft Noah ahead of Hawes because GMs have no common sense.
I remember reading an article in Sports Illustrated in 2001 that was all about the new generation of players that was changing the face of the playoffs. The group of Vince Carter, Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Tracy Mcgrady, Baron Davis, Kevin Garnett and the rest were entering the peak of their career and promising to give us compelling matchups for the rest of the decade. This was the dynamic group of players who would fill the void left by the Jordan generation, who were all either retired or soon to retire (Barkley, Stockton, Malone, Hardaway, Reggie, Pippen). Fast forward to now. We're on the other side of most of these players' prime years, and between injuries, dissappointing performances, and managerial incompetence, that generation has left us mostly dissappointed. The decade has been dominated by Shaq, the Pistons' team-oriented style, and the one star of this generation who has lived up to his billing, Tim Duncan. As the torch seems to be passing to the next wave of stars (Lebron, Wade, Melo, Parker, Bosh), its time to take a look at where there players stand in the grand scheme of things. What is the historical legacy of this group, which popularized jumping to the pros after 1 year or just straight out of high school.
In 1996, the NBA came out with a list of the 50 greatest players in its history. That was when most of these guys were just starting their careers. Of those 50, only Shaq is still an active player. So, the question is, who from this generation of players deserves a spot on that list? Keep in mind, we're not just talking about who's going to be in the Hall of Fame. We're talking about the best of the best, the guys who you're going to look back on in 20 years and be proud to tell your kids/grandkids, "yeah, I saw him play". The guys we choose have to be good enough to knock one of the guys on that list off. How will this generation be remembered? Who deserves to be called "the greatest"?
There should be absolutely no doubt about this one. He'll go down in history as the best power forward ever, and he's one of the two most dominant players of the decade. He's unarguably one of the top 50, and you can certainly make a case for him being top 10.
Along with Duncan, I think he's the only unarguable inclusion on this list. When taking into account the era that Wilt played in, Kobe might be the greatest pure scorer of all time. Whether you love him or hate him (there seems to be no middle ground), you have to be in awe of his brilliance. The most talented player in the league, bar none.
He will always be remembered for breaking open the HS to pro floodgates and for his landmark contract with the Wolves. The verdict is still out as to whether he will always be remembered as the guy who couldn't quite get it done. Regardless of whether or not Garnett ever does get his ring, he's still proven to be a remarkable basketball player. I'm willing to overlook his playoff struggles in light of his being the most versatile player ever to play the game. He's been stuck on a bad team for the past few years, but it wasn't long ago that we were debating whether he or Duncan was the better player.
I went back and forth on this one because I find it very hard to look at AI's career objectively. He's one of the most prolific scorers of all time, but he's certainly not the most efficient scorer ever to play. He's been criticized for his attitude towards practice and he's been criticized for the amount of shots he takes. However, he's one of the most competitive players in the game and plays completely without fear. To watch Iverson is to watch heart triumph over stature. At the end of the day, his amazing ability to score at a mere 6 feet tall and his playoff run where he nearly single-handedly carried the Sixers to the finals are enough for him to make the list.
On the Brink (likely Hall of Famers, but not top 50)
Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Steve Nash
Dirk Nowitzki
Nowitzki deserves a special note because I think that more than anyone, he has the potential to jump up this list. He's really just entered his prime as a player and has hit a turning point in his career after the first round loss to the Warriors this year. His place in history will be determined by how he responds to the accusations that he's a weak player.
ames has to be the MVP.
rleans. Chris Paul has to be the MVP.
ut the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.
gue, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.
ion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
tting to the free throw line, he's almost always among the league leaders in FT attempts, where he shoots 80%.
ale gift wrapped KG for them and it instantly changed their outlook. More than any either of the other two guys, he's the one that will make this work; he's desperate for a ring.
nterestingly enough, the Celts were actually a decent defensive team last year. They return most of their top defensive players (Rondo, Allen, Perkins) and added KG and Posey, which should give them a strong defensive team next year in addition to the offensive firepower of KG, Pierce, and Allen.
