Here's the thing with the MVP race this year, you can make a legitimate argument for four different candidates. The candidates are all so worthy and so different that I wouldn't argue anyone's choice if they backed it up logically. Of course, there are a lot of illogical arguments out there, and I have no qualms about destroying them with my scathing wit :P. Also, if you're going to argue that the MVP is anyone other than KG, LeBron, Kobe or CP3, you have to wear the stupid helmet.
What makes this MVP race especially difficult to decide is that the candidates are so completely different. Do you think that the MVP is the best player on the best team? It's hard to argue against KG there. Do you think the MVP is the most productive player? LeBron has a pretty strong claim to that distinction. You can make the case for anyone, and a lot of it depends on what you think the MVP award means. How do you define "Valuable"? As I write this, I'm not even sure who my pick is, I'm just going to make the best case I can for each player.
Make no mistake, this is not who I think will win the award. Kobe's going to win it, I don't think there's any doubt about that. This is who should win the award.
I'm gonna throw some statistics out there that you might not know. They aren't necessary to understand, but I'm just putting them out there. I explain them quickly in this post, a little way down the page.
LeBron James Relevant Statistics: 51.8% eFG 71.2% FT 11.1 RB% 37.3 AST% 11.4 TO% 33.5 Usage% 116 ORtg
So, halfway through the year I announced that LeBron was my midseason MVP. What's changed since then? For LeBron and the Cavs, absolutely nothing. LeBron's stats are almost identical now to what they were at the halfway point. The Cavs' record at that point was 23-18, they ended the season at 45-37, almost exactly the same winning percentage. In fact, what I said at the time looks almost prescient in retrospect,
"LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a
really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs."
Quite simply, LeBron has been superb this season. Make whatever arguments you want about clutch or leadership or whatnot, but the fact of the matter is that LeBron has produced more, night-in and night-out, than any player in the league. To put things in perspective, the Cavs play the 6th slowest pace in the league, almost 10 possessions per game less than league-leading Denver. Despite that, he's putting up the kind of numbers that Oscar Robertson put up in his prime. He absolutely denies comparison, Within a few years, we could legitimately be talking about him in the "Greatest Of All Time" sense.History may show us to be fools if we deny him here. LeBron James has to be the MVP.
Chris Paul Relevant Statistics 52.4% eFG
85.1% FT 6.2 RB% 52.2
AST%
12.1 TO% 25.7
Usage%
125 ORtg
It's taken Chris Paul a mere three seasons to draw comparisons to Isiah Thomas in his prime. Three years to rejuvenate basketball in New Orleans. Three years to become the unquestioned leader of the #2 seed in the toughest conference in history. Three years to give the Hornets their first ever division title. Three years. That's how long it took him to average 21 points and 12 assists per game. You know how long you've got to go back to find the last guy who went 20 and 10 with assists? All the way back to the 92-93 season, when Timmy Hardaway did it. Even more impressive? Paul did it while playing on the 5th slowest team in the league. When he was on the floor, CP3 assisted on 52% of his teammates' field goals. The only other guy ever to do that? It's this guy you might have heard of, goes by "Stockton". He's responsible for single-handedly making Tyson Chandler an offensive force. You want to see improving your teammates? The two seasons before he came to New Orleans, Chandler shot 52.3% on 4.4 FGA per game. In two seasons with Paul, Chandler has shot 62.3% on 7.1 FGA per game, and the Paul-to-Chandler alley-oop has become one of the NBA's signature plays. In three short years he's taken the title of "best point guard" from a hall of famer still playing some of the best ball of his career. He's one of the most efficient players in the NBA, he's the league's best point guard, and he saved basketball in New Orleans. Chris Paul has to be the MVP.
Over the last 5 years, Kobe Bryant has arguably been the best basketball player on the planet. He's been to the Finals, he's carried a mediocre team to the playoffs the last two years, he's dropped 81 points in a single game, and he made All-Defensive Team after All-Defensive Team. In all that, he's been passed over for the MVP award time and again. People always had complaints: He shared credit with Shaq, his team wasn't good enough, he wasn't a good teammate, he looked for his own scoring too much. Well, no such complaints this year. Surrounded by a core of talented young players. Kobe has moved past his off-season discontent and been the leader the Lakers need. His guiding of an injury-plagued team to the #1 seed has been nothing short of amazing. Consider the Lakers' two main trade acquisitions this year. Paul Gasol has played effectively 26 of the 37 games since he came over, and Trevor Ariza has played a mere 24 of the 70 games since he arrived. Add to that the fact that centers Andrew Bynum and Chris Mihm have spent the majority of the year on the DL, and you see what a truly impressive feat it was for Kobe to take this team to the top of the Western Conference. He's become the player we kept saying he should be, and his team sits on top of the toughest conference of all time. Kobe Bryant has to be the MVP.
Kevin Garnett Relevant Statistics 53.9% eFG
80.1% FT 16.8 RB% 19.9
AST%
110.8 TO% 25.5
Usage%
118 ORtg
Two numbers ultimately describe Kevin Garnett's impact this season. 66 and 24. That's the Celtics' win total from this year and their win total last year. Lest this 42 game swing doesn't impress you, remember back to the beginning of the season, back before the Celtics started demolishing everyone in their way, back when no one was sure how this would work. 3 superstars with 0 championship rings between them, not much of a bench and a reliance on young, unproven guys to fill the other spots on the court. We knew they'd be pretty good, we certainly knew they'd be better than last year, but no one was ready for this. 66-16, the best record in the league wire-to-wire, a huge +10.26 point differential (3.5 points higher than second-place Utah), and the best defense in the league by a long shot. More than anyone else, Garnett's impact goes beyond statistics (and that's saying something, since his are quite impressive). His arrival brought about a culture shift in Boston. His intensity has ratcheted up the defensive play of every other member of the team. His deft passing in the post and willingness to give them the ball has instilled confidence in guys like Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Leon Powe. His presence has drawn in free agents like James Posey, P.J. Brown and Sam Cassell to give the Celtics veteran depth. As far as overall impact on a franchise, it's hard to argue anyone has done more than Garnett. He's the best defender in the game, he turned his team around, and he rejuvenated basketball in Boston. Kevin Garnett has to be the MVP
There are legitimate cases to be made for all four candidates. However, we've got to pick one, so who's it going to be?
LeBron might be the best basketball player on the planet, but his team hasn't been impressive this year. Despite their overall record, the Cavs actually have a negative point differential. Basically, they're lucky to have even broken .500, much less be a 45 win team. How much fault does LeBron take for that? I'm not inclined to criticize him much, since he's been surrounded by a truly sucktastic supporting cast this season. However, he certainly doesn't have the defensive impact that Kobe or Garnett have, and I'm not sure Chris Paul hasn't actually had the better offensive season.
Paul has certainly put up impressive numbers and led his team to be a lot better than they were supposed to be. However, he's also got some pretty solid teammates around him. Peja's shooting stroke and David West's solid all-around game (by the way, even though people keep saying it, he's still underrated) really complement his skills and give the Hornets a strong team. Unlike last year, and unlike the Lakers this year, Paul's Hornets have stayed healthy and haven't had to deal with much adversity during the season. Also, of all these 4, Paul is probably the weakest defensively.
Kobe's overall production and statistical impact just don't measure up to LeBron and Paul. Those two are having, quite simply, transcendent seasons. His season certainly doesn't jump off the page like the others do. Also, the MVP award isn't a career achievement award, it's an individual regular season award. Frankly, Kobe has had better seasons, and just because he didn't win it then doesn't mean that he should win it now. Sure, he has done a great job leading the Lakers, but does it even remotely compare to the job that Garnett has done in Boston?
Garnett might be the main force behind Boston's turnaround, but it's not like he did it alone. Having teammates like Paul Pierce and Ray Allen certainly helps. Garnett also isn't the guy who is going to take the tough shot at the end o####ame, he's never relished that role. Can you be the MVP if your team goes to other guys in the clutch, especially when compared to these other three guys?
The Pick
I've swung back and forth on this in the last few weeks more times than I care to count. As I said above, I hadn't decided who this pick would be even as I wrote the post. After poring over everything, I realized that my MVP vote has to go to Kevin Garnett. Here's the thing, all week I've kind of dismissed KG's candidacy. I thought he was the weakest of the four, not on the same level as Kobe, Paul and LeBron. However, as I looked over all that he's done this year and the numbers that he has put up, it becomes harder and harder to find any reason not to pick him. I'm not concerned with the fact that he isn't their go-to clutch scorer, I'm much more concerned with what happens in the first 45 minutes of the game than what happens in the last 3. I remember back to the criticism of the Ray Allen trade and how that only really turned into a good thing once KG was on board. I thought back to how uncertain I was of the Celtics at the beginning of the season. I thought about how Garnett transformed a team with no other guys who you could call reliable top-tier defenders and transformed them into one of the best (if not the best) defensive teams of the past ten years. His defensive presence, the way he has completely altered the team's atmosphere and the incredible turnaround from worst to first all point to one thing.
Well, I wanted to make this post a while ago, but I've been fighting sickness for the last two weeks, so it's slightly belated. Anyway, I'm gonna give you my All-Star Teams, and explain to you why some of the guys you might expect to be there aren't.
First of all, note that this is not a lifetime achievement award. I do not care what you did last year, nor do I care what you might be expected to do for the rest of the year. Performance is what matters.
Second, while I do consider your team's record, it's not a huge factor to me. I'm not going to penalize you for having crappy teammates.
Finally, I'm going to list some relevant statistics for each player. These are not going to be PPG or RPG statistics, cause frankly those are usually poor measures of performance and you can find them anywhere. Because I'm going to be listing some statistics that some of you might not recognize, I'll give you a quick synopsis of some of them.
eFG (effective field goal percentage) - This is simply field goal percentage, except it gives extra credit for three-pointers.
ORtg (Offensive Rating) - A measure of how efficient an offensive player is. It's a ridiculously complicated formula, but basically it estimates how many points a player creates per every 100 possessions they use.
USG% (Usage %)- The estimated percentage of the team's possessions that a player uses while they're on the floor. As a general rule, as USG% goes up, ORtg goes down (harder to be efficient the more you're asked to do). Point Guards often have lower USG% (around 20%), whereas high-volume scorers (DWade, LeBron, Kobe, etc.) usually have a USG% of 30% or more.
AST% - An estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals that you assist on while you're on the floor.
TO% - estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions. Anything below 10 is outstanding, over 20% is usually pretty bad.
REB% - An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds that a player grabbed while he was on the floor.
(most statistics courtesy of basketballreference.com)
That said, on to the teams.
xphoenix87's Eastern Conference All-Stars
Starting Lineup
Guard-Chauncey Billups (53.4% eFG, 90.4% FT, 22.5 USG%, 128 ORtg, 34.6 AST%, 12.7 TO%) One of the steadiest players in the league, and one of the most ruthlessly efficient offensive players out there. He's a nightmare to match up against for most teams because he's so good at backing down opposing point guards and abusing them with short turnaround jumpers or headfaking them into fouling him. Billups was an easy pick.
Guard-Jose Calderon (58.7% eFG, 91.7% FT, 130 ORtg, 44.8 AST%, 13.8 TO%, 5.58 A/T) I know, he didn't even make the All-Star team, I must be out of my mind to have him as a starter, right? Well, lets look at him versus the actual All-Star starters, Jason Kidd and Dwayne Wade. There's been a lot of hype about Kidd and his near-triple double pace this season, but how about the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.
Forward-LeBron (33.6 USG%, 116 ORtg, 51.3% eFG, 37.8 AST%, 11 TO%, 11.8 REB%) Any argument that LeBron should be the starter here? Didn't think so, moving on.
Forward-KG (24.2 USG%, 120 ORtg, 55.1% eFG, 17.2 REB%, 20.5 AST%) More than any statistic, the impact of Garnett is most pronounced in these numbers.
106.9 24
98 38
The first two numbers are Boston's defensive rating and win total from last year. The second two are those same numbers from this year. Defensive impact has been notoriously tricky to quantify, but the effect of Garnett on Boston has been palpable.
Center-Dwight Howard (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 21.6 REB%, 60.2% eFG) Again, anyone want to argue this? Howard is easily the most dominant center in the conference, if not the entire league.
Bench
Guard-Dwyane Wade (33 USG%, 103 ORtg, 35.8 AST%, 9 FTA/36, 75.6% FT, 46.8% eFG) Is he having a down year? Yeah, sure, but he's still Dwyane Wade. He still gets to the line as well as anyone in the league, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.
Guard-Rip Hamilton (24.7 USG%, 114 ORtg, 53.1% eFG, 23 AST%, 10.4 TO%, 81.5% FT) Honestly, I searched really hard to find someone who deserved this spot, maybe someone that everyone else had missed. No dice. As I mentioned above, the guards in the East are so bad that I'm really kind of reaching here (as opposed to the West, which is overflowing with candidates). In the end, nobody I looked at was having a better year than Hamilton. A lot of people like Ray Allen here because of how well Boston has played, but I'm not buying that, and Rip is having a better year. Hamilton is an extremely efficient scorer, and might be the league's best at using off the ball screens (It's between he and Kevin Martin IMO). In addition, he's also a very solid defensive player (as with most Pistons players).
Forward-Caron Butler (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 50.8% eFG, 91.3% FT, 20.5 AST%) Butler supposedly made "The Jump" last year when he made it into his first All-Star game. Well, if he was jumping last year, he's flying this year. His turnovers are down, his assists are way up, his shooting percentages are way up, and he's carrying the Wizards in Gilbert Arenas' absence. His mid-range game has always been among the best in the league, but this year he has really increased his range, shooting 36.5% from long-range.
Forward-Paul Pierce (25.7 USG%, 110 ORtg, 49.6% eFG, 22.8 AST%, 8.8 REB%) I was trying to decide between Pierce and Richard Jefferson here, and really the difference between the two is minimal. Their stat profiles are so similar that it's almost impossible to chose between them. Jefferson is putting up better pure scoring numbers, but Pierce is the better distributor and rebounder. In the end, it comes down to Pierce being the superior defensive player and more proven star.
Center-Chris Bosh (28.6 USG%, 117 ORtg, 14.9 REB%, 10.2 TO%, 48.9% eFG, 85.6% FT) Even if Bosh didn't actually deserve this, he's really the only choice. At any rate, Bosh is having the best season of his career. He's often the forgotten 4th member of that LeBron, Wade, Melo draft class, but he has absolutel y kept himself at that level. He hasn't yet become a dominant defensive force, but he's definitely improving as a disruptive force who can defend without fouling. Offensively, he rivals Garnett and Duncan as the best face-up post men in the league. He's got a great jab step, and he's so quick and so long that he's almost impossible to guard without help. That quickness means he gets to the line a TON, and his FT% has shot up to 85% this season. He's also got great hands, makes quick decisions, and picks his spots well, leading to very low turnover numbers for a guy his size who has such a high usage rate.
Wild Card #1-Richard Jefferson (27.5 ORtg, 111 ORtg, 48.5% eFG, 80.4% FT) If I struggled with Jefferson vs. Pierce above, it didn't take a lot of thought to put him here. A bit overlooked in the Nets' collapse, Jefferson is completing his transformation from a role player who finished Jason Kidd alley-oops into the team's star-quality first option. It isn't the most efficient year of Jefferson's career, but he's taking on a much bigger role in the offense, and he's thriving.
Wild Card #2-Josh Smith (26.5 USG%, 100 ORtg, 13 REB%, 45.3% eFG, 20 AST%, 3.4 BPG, 2 SPG) There were three people I considered here: Smith, Antwan Jamison, and Tayshaun Prince. Jamison is having a solid year, and he's rebounding than he ever has in his career. He doesn't make many mistakes (4th lowest TO% in the league), but the fact that he shoots 30% from the field really hurts him. He also doesn't play defense, and he just isn't a good enough offensive player to make up for that and get on the team for me. Prince is a fantastic player who often gets overlooked in Detroit, but he's a matchup nightmare with his length and versatility, and he's one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. However, if I'm going to go with a defensive force, it's got to be Smith. He might not have much polish as an offensive player yet, but Smith is the rare player who can be a dominating defensive force against multiple positions. Like Andrei Kirilenko, he can match up with wing defenders, but he's also a force defending the rim and drifting into passing lanes. The Hawks are 9th in the league in defense, and the biggest reason is Smith's game-altering presence.
Some guys of note on the outside looking in
Kidd - People get wrapped up in the whole triple-double thing, but the fact is that Kidd has really fallen off as an offensive player. He can't finish around the rim at all anymore, and he's turning the ball over at a prodigious rate. People need to start getting used to the idea that the 34-year old Kidd may not be an elite point guard any more.
Jamison - I went over this above. Very good offensive player, very bad defensive player.
Michael Redd - What I said about Jamison, only more pronounced. To say that he plays matador defense is an understatement.
Hedo Turkoglu - Hedo is a fantastic story this year as he has really improved his play and become a key part of Orlando's success. He's had some truly great moments at the ends of games too. However, I think he's much more a top-tier role player than he is an all-star. He isn't a good defender, and his offensive numbers are good, but not great.
Joe Johnson - He's only noteworthy because he's on the actual all-star team. In reality he's having his worst season as a Hawk, and doesn't deserve to be on the team.
Well, finally, after long hours of toil and research, my NBA Season Preview is finished. I sincerely apologize for not being able to finish all the teams in time for the season opener, it ended up being a much more time-consuming process than I thought it would be. Next year I'll know to start my preparations earlier. Anyway, I hope you appreciated the preview, I certainly had fun making it and debating on the merits of various teams. If there's something that could be improved on in the format or something that you think would improve it next time around, please let me know. I've already got some ideas for improvement, so hopefully next year's version will be much improved. Anyway, if you haven't been reading my previews and you would like to, you can check out my Eastern Conference Previews and my Western Conference Previews, you can link to each individual team's preview from there.
Now, with that said, some thoughts on the beginning of the season.
I knew Dwight Howard was going to be really good this year, but I didn't think he would be quite this good. Honestly, if you were going to give out the MVP award right now, it would go to Howard. He's been absolutely unstoppable on both ends of the floor. As J-Dizzle, Dusty and I were discussing in another post, Howard needs a good nickname, cause we can't just go around calling him D-####, it just doesn't work. My suggestion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
The Celtics are the best team in the East if the big three stay healthy. I've thought this from the beginning, and their start was extremely impressive. It wasn't just that they've been beating teams, it's that they've been KILLING teams, with a margin of victory in the mid-teens. That's simply obscene.
In retrospect, we probably should've seen this coming with the Bulls. They're a young team, and all the Kobe talk has obviously been detrimental to them. I still think they'll be alright. They're too talented a squad to miss the playoffs.
Stop trying to use Orlando's hot start to justify the Rashard Lewis signing. The issue was never about whether he was a good fit with the team. The issue was that they could have signed him for way less money, and they're going to be regretting this when he's 33 and they're paying him $24 mil.
Why can't Walter Herrmann get minutes for the Bobcats? This baffles me. Sam Vincent apparently prefers playing Primoz Brezec and Ryan Hollins 27 minutes a night instead of giving Walter some burn. After the way he tore it up last year, you've got to give the guy a chance out on the floor.
Indiana is going to be better than I thought. I didn't factor in the acquisition of Jim O'Brien as coach, which will help this team a ton. His style plays right into their strengths, namely 3-PT shooting. He's made a decent player out of Mike Dunleavy, and that's pretty good. They aren't a playoff team, but they can get hot from behind the line and beat people, so they'll most likely end up higher than I thought.
It's been years since the league has had a collection of sixth men as good as this. Manu, Terry, and Barbosa are all legit all-star talents.
Quick look at college basketball, next year's draft is going to be ridiculously deep. Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kevin Love, J.J. Hickson, Kosta Koufos, O.J. Mayo, and DeAndre Jordan are all guys who have been impressive early and are legit top-shelf prospects, and that's just the freshmen.
Coach: Sam Mitchell 2006-2007 Record: 47-35 06-07 Expected Record: 44-38 Offensive Rating: 107.2 (9th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 105.8 (12th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 50.4% (10th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 92.6 (9th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
That Chris Bosh guy, he’s pretty good. I remember watching
the US Team’s Red/White game over the Summer and thinking that he looked like
Tim Duncan-Lite. He faces up a lot and is tough to stop because he’s got such
great quickness for a big man. He’s also an exceptional mid-range shooter, so
you can’t just play off him. He’s got great touch around the rim, and
defensively he blocks shots without fouling. His big problem so far has been
injury. The Raptors need him to shake off the foot problems that bothered him
this summer, cause they don’t have a prayer without him.
The Two-Headed Monster of T. Jose Forderon gives the Raps
surprisingly good production at the point guard position. Ford had the best
year of his young career, becoming a more proficient mid-range shooter and
continuing to cut down on his turnovers (2.55 A/T Ratio). He had a great year
last year, but it didn’t seem very fluke-like, and I don’t think there’s much
reason to expect him to play worse this season. He’s a high-usage guy who is
probably the one guy on the team outside of Bosh who can get hot and really
carry the load for a stretch. Calderon, on the other hand, is a low-usage,
high-efficiency guy who does a great job coming off the bench. He’s an
excellent passer and mid-range shooter, and last year he was an obscenely good
finisher around the rim (63.8%). You can probably expect that percentage to
drop off, but I also expect that Calderon will add more of a perimeter shot
this year, which should offset that somewhat. Defensively he’s very solid, and
at 6’3 has the height to make it tough to shoot over him (as opposed to Ford,
who often might as well not even be there).
Raise your hand if you knew who Anthony Parker was before
last season (put it down, I know you’re lying). Parker came back to the NBA
after a long hiatus in Europe and ended up being one of the keys to Toronto’s success. He was
killer from behind the arc, draining 44%
of his looks from downtown, and was one of the more underrated defenders in the
league last year. Most likely he won’t shoot quite as well this year as he shot
last year, but his defense should still be plenty of reason to get him plenty
of minutes.
I’m kind of torn on the acquisition of Kapono. On the one
hand, I love that the Raps are surrounding Bosh with shooters on the wings,
Kapono is a great fit for the team. On the other hand, they overpaid for him,
and he doesn’t do anything besides shoot. Defense and rebounding all seem to be
foreign concepts to Jason, but man does he have a pretty shooting stroke, to
the tune of a league-leading 51.4% from three-point land last year. Kapono has
been a great shooter his whole career, so there’s little reason to think he’ll
fall off too much, and that kind of shooting can forgive a lot of wrongs.
Word is that Carlos Delfino’s perimeter shot looked WAY
better over the summer than it has in previous years, which is good news for
the Raps. Delfino has made good progress in each of his professional seasons,
and he should fit in well with the international flavor that the Toronto has going on. He
loves playing in the open court, and he’s got very good court vision for a
forward. Defensively, Delfino is above-average, and he’s a very good rebounder
for his position. He’ll probably be the main backup at the 2 and 3 spots, and
if his jumpshot really is that improved, he could steal the starting spot from
Kapono.
Garbajosa is another one of those guys who statistics don’t
do a good job of quantifying. He’s a pretty bad offensive player and he’s not a
very good rebounder, but his defensive toughness and versatility made him a big
part of the Raptors’ improvement as a defensive team last year (from 28th
in the league to 12th). He’s the consummate effort guy, and you love
to have guys like that on the bench. In addition, he’s a very good passer and
shoots fairly well from the perimeter (34.2%).
X-Factor: Andrea Bargnani – He’s 6’10, European, and has a
quick release on his jumper, so he’d better get used to hearing the Dirk
comparisons. While it’s far too early to make that judgment, the talent is
obviously there. Already, we’ve seen a bit of a nasty streak and penchant for
trying to dunk over people in Bargnani that European guys sometimes lack, and
that’s a good thing. He moves really well for a big guy, and of course he’s got
that very good jumpshot. His struggles last year (defense, decision-making) are
common mistakes for young players, and not surprising for a 21-year old player
coming over from the European game, he also improved a huge amount in the
second half of last year. He’s got a lot to work on, rebounding and defense
being the highest priority, but Bargnani should be a solid player, and possibly
a star in the making. His playing style and ability to hit from the outside
makes him a great compliment to Bosh in the interior, and his improvement will
go a long way towards determining where this team finishes.
Overview
The Raptors made a huge jump in the standings last year by
becoming a much better defensive team. They went from being the 3rd
worst defensive team in the league to being above-average, which made a huge
difference in the win column. The additions of Parker, Garbajosa, and Rasho
Nesterovic made a big improvement, especially since they were replacing the
likes of Charlie Villanueva, Jalen Rose, and Mike James. That defensive jump
took them from having the 4th worst record in the East to having the 4th best. Offensively, the Raptors shoot a high percentage and very
rarely turn the ball over, making them very efficient despite being the
league’s worst offensive rebounding club. On the defensive end, Toronto rebounded
surprisingly well, getting quality rebounding from basically every spot on the
floor instead of having multiple dominant post rebounders.
Prediction
The success of the Raptors this season will be largely
dependent on the health of Chris Bosh. If his foot problems turn out to be no
big deal, then Toronto
should easily make the playoffs and be a threat in the postseason. The
additions of Delfino and Kapono should improve the team, and it’s not
unreasonable to think they’ll be a 45-47 win team. More importantly, I like the
way this team is being built. They remind me a lot of the Spurs. They found a
great big man to build around, and they’re surrounding him with good defensive
players, good shooters, and guys who take care of the ball. There’s a good mix
of youth and veteran talent here, and I think that bodes well for both the
present and the future.
Coach: Maurice Cheeks 2006-2007 Record: 35-47 06-07 Expected Record: 33-49 Offensive Rating: 103.7 (26th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 106.8 (16th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 48% (26th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 90.7 (22nd in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Andre Iguadola surprised me last year, I didn't think he was as good as he showed he was. At this point, the only things keeping him from becoming a star are his jumpshot and his turnovers. He's a great finisher, gets to the free throw line, rebounds well, has great court vision for a G/F, and he's a very good defender. He's a great piece for them to build around, and he may well be an All-Star this year.
I like Andre Miller. He's a terrible long-range shooter, but he's not a bad midrange guy, and he's a very good passer and rebounder for his position. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him traded sometime this year. The Sixers aren't going anywhere, and there are plenty of teams out there looking for a veteran true point guard.
Only in the NBA can a guy with one real basketball skill be getting paid $5 mil a year over the next 4 years. For his career, 56% of the shots Kyle Korver has taken have been 3s. He doesn't play defense, he doesn't rebound, he doesn't pass well, he doesn't get to the free throw line, and he still plays 30 minutes a game. Fortunately for Korver, he's 6'7 and a dead-eye shot, so he'll always be in demand.
What is it with the Sixers and guys who have only one discernable skill. Reggie Evans is a FANTASTIC rebounder, especially for a guy who is 6'8. However, he's a turnover machine, and he doesn't really do anything other than rebound. So, of course, he's also making $4.5 mil a year over the next 4 years. If only they could combine Korver and Evans into some sort of super-rebounding/super-shooting Frankenstein's monster.
Louis Williams has been carving up the summer league for the last two years, but we've yet to see him do much in the league yet. This year he'll probably get a chance to win the backup point guard job and prove that he can be the point guard of the future for the Sixers. He's not much of a shooter at this point, but he's blindingly quick and a pretty good finisher. Look for a semi-breakout year from him this year.
Thaddeus Young is an awesome talent to get as late as the 12th pick. In fact, before the season last year he was regarded by many scouting services as a better prospect than Kevin Durant. While that's obviously not true, Young is a huge talent who should make a big impact a few years down the line. He's still really raw, and his ballhandling and strength will be the two things he really needs to work on, but Young is a solid shooter, a strong finisher, and already has good post moves if he gets a smaller guy on him.
X-Factor: Samuel Dalembert - If the Sixers want to make any noise over the next few years, Dalembert needs to start earning that outrageous contract he got from them. If you're making that kind of money, you can't just be a good rebounder and shotblocker. The Dalembeast either needs to add some offensive component to his game other than turning the ball over an inordinate amount of times, or he needs to become an elite-level shotblocker and rebounder. If he doesn't improve, he might combine with Evans to give the Sixers the most turnover prone and offensively inept frontcourt in the league.
Overview
It was a very strange year in Philadelphia last year. After half a season of terrible play and trade rumors, they finally parted with the face of the franchise, trading Allen Iverson for Andre Miller and some first round picks. Unpredictably, the Sixers then played much better, actually having a winning record with Miller on the floor. Of course, that probably wasn't a good thing, since all those wins probably cost Philly 4-5 spots in the draft. Really, looking at the roster, it's absolutely amazing that this team could be above .500 for half a season.
Prediction
This team has little hope of continuing the success that they ended last season with. They're turnover prone, they have no post scoring presence at all, and they have no good shooters outside of Korver. I'd expect to see Miller traded sometime this season if they can find a taker (Atlanta would be a good choice). The nucleus of Young, Carney, Iggy, Williams, and Dalembert has the potential to be good since they're all such great athletes, but all of those guys have a long way to go before this team will be a contender.
14th in the East - If You're Bad in the East, You're Really Bad
Coach: Isiah Thomas 2006-2007 Record: 33-49 06-07 Expected Record: 33-49 Offensive Rating: 105.5 (17th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 108.9 (24th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 49.4% (16th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 90.8 (20th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Marbury is a scoring point, always has been, always will be. There have been attempts over the years to turn him into a pass-first guy, but it doesn't work. He's actually a pretty efficient scorer, he's just more of 2 guard than a distributing point. His overall numbers last year were down from his career numbers, but he actually had a very efficient year as far as scoring the ball. He got to the free throw line more often and shot the best 3PT percentage of his career. The main problem with Marbury is that he just doesn't fit with this team. Even at his best, he's not a great outside shooter, and he isn't the distributor that this team needs. He'd work much better on a team like Miami or Cleveland where someone else (Lebron or Wade) can be the primary playmaker.
You know who's been really overrated the last few years? Jamal Crawford, that's who. He shoots terrible percentages because he's not a great shooter, but keeps settling for long range shots. Last year he shot more three-pointers than layups, and over 20% of his shots were long two-pointers. If you shoot 32% from behind the line, you can't hoist up shots like that. He's a good free throw shooter and is actually a pretty good distributor for a scoring combo guard, but his reliance on a poor jumpshot really kills him.
Eddie Curry does one thing well, and that's score around the rim. He's terrible at everything else. Turnovers, rebounding, free throw shooting, defense, every other facet of the game. Lucky for Curry, post scoring as at an absolute premium in the NBA today. That said, this team would be way better off if David Lee took more minutes from Curry. Curry just has way too many weaknesses in his game.
I really didn't like the Zach Randolph move, even though they gave up almost nothing to get him. Randolph isn't a good defender, he isn't great at getting to the line (though he does shoot a good percentage from the stripe), and he doesn't shoot a very good percentage for a post player. He's not a good compliment to Eddy Curry as they're similar offensive players, both have problems with their weight, and both are really bad defenders. Randolph is a very good rebounder though, which might be the biggest thing he brings to the table for them. Still, his contract is huge over the next 4 years, and he's just not worth that, especially in New York.
I, like everyone else, bashed the Balkman pick at the time, but it's turned out pretty well for the Knicks. It still wasn't a great pick because they could've gotten him much later in the draft, but he's a solid talent. He's important because he's really the only good defender on the team. Energy guys like Balkman coming off the bench are really important, especially for a team like the Knicks which has so many score-first players.
There's not a team in the league that wouldn't love to have David Lee coming off the bench. He's a rebounding machine, and almost single-handedly made the Knicks a decent rebounding team (cause it sure as heck wasn't Eddie Curry). He's a great player because he knows his limits offensively, so he shoots a great percentage, and he's probably the best instinctive rebounder in the league.
X-Factor: Quentin Richardson - Q has a really unique skillset, and it's one that fits really well for this Knicks team. He's a really good 3PT shooter and a solid rebounder for his position, both things New York definitely needs. The problem with Richardson is that he's injury-prone, having missed large chunks of 4 of the last 5 seasons.He's battled with his weight at times in his career, and it has caused him a lot of minor injuries and back problems. The Knicks really need him to be healthy because he can be effective without the ball in his hands and because he works hard on defense, which you can't say for most of their guys. He's also probably the best shooter on the team.
Overview
The Knicks are a prime case subject in the importance of chemistry. They had loads of talent last year, but so many players on their team have similar skillsets that they just don't work well together. On top of that, they were a terrible defensive team and didn't rebound well when David Lee wasn't on the floor. Offensively, their lack of a true point guard was readily apparent in the fact that they weren't a good shooting team and the only team that turned the ball over more often than New York was Orlando. So, with so many bad contracts and similar players who don't play defense on the roster,what did Isiah decide to? Well, he brought in the massive contract of Zach Randolph, who is a very similar player to Eddy Curry except that he can rebound.
Prediction
I just don't see a whole lot of difference between this year's Knicks team and last year's team. Sure, they added Randolph, but does he really bring them anything they didn't have before? The essential problem is that their guards aren't the kind of shooters or distributors who you would want for a team based around post players like Curry and Randolph who require a lot of touches. Crawford and Marbury both require the ball in their hands for large portions of the clock in order to be effective, but both their posts also need the ball, and neither of them are good passers. The Knicks will have dual black holes in the middle, cause when the ball goes in to Curry or Z-Bo, it doesn't come back out very often. On the defensive end, they're just as bad as they were last year. They have no shotblockers, they don't even have any servicable post defenders. Balkman is a good defender, but he's really the only one on the team. Richardson is strong and he works hard, but he's just too slow to guard the quicker guys he's often matched up against. In an improved Eastern conference, this team just isn't built right to be a playoff team.
Coach: Lawrence Frank 2006-2007 Record: 41-41 06-07 Expected Record: 39-43 Offensive Rating: 106.1 (16th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 106.2 (13th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 50.4% (7th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 91.4 (16th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Jason Kidd is a great player and a future Hall of Famer. He's one of the all-time great passers and one of the best rebounding point guards ever. Also, contrary to popular perception, he isn't that bad a shooter. He actually has shot pretty well from outside and mid-range over the last few years, but his problem was finishing close to the rim, where he shot pretty poorly. On the defensive end, Kidd is a bit overrated since he really struggles with quicker players at this point. He's a smart defender and he still makes an impact with his rebounding, but he's not a first-team All-Defensive teamer anymore. He remains one of the best leaders in the game, and he and Nash are the only guys who REALLY make all their teammates substantially better. The Nets have to be worried about his age and injuries (he was having some back problems this preseason), since it's all over if he goes down.
I'm really torn on Vince Carter. He's a guy who really looks good on paper by most every statistical measure, but as soon as you put your trust in him he'll rip your heart out. Just ask a Raptors fan what they think about Carter and you'll get an earful about Carter's complete and total lack of heart. At his best, Vince is a guy who can score from almost anywhere on the court, and Kidd makes him even better. However, he far too often settles for jumpshots or gets frustrated and can shoot his team out of games.
The Nets better pray that Richard Jefferson stays healthy. When he's been healthy and able to play all season, he's been a monster. He's a great transition player and really benefits from playing with Kidd. He's not much of a mid-range player, usually opting to spot up from distance or go all the way to the rim and finish. He's so dependent on his athleticism though that when he suffers physical problems, he completely breaks down. He's also a pretty good rebounder and a strong defender when healthy. Of course all this is contingent on Jefferson staying healthy, which he's had some trouble with the last few years.
Bostjan Nachbar really had a career year last year after getting some minutes and benefiting from the Jason Kidd effect. He really only has one skill, but his pretty darn good at shooting the rock. At 6'9, he can play both forward spots, and he can shoot over most other SFs. Of course, that's about the only thing that Nachbar does. He doesn't play defense, he's not a great rebounder, he doesn't drive the ball, but he's a heck of a spot-up shooter.
Jamaal Magloire doesn't do much on the offensive end, and he turns the ball over a ton, but he's a great rebounder. Don't mistake him for an offensive post presence, because he's not, but he can bring some of the rebounding toughness that this team lacks.
Sean Williams could make a big impact for this team, but I wouldn't be counting on it too much. He missed half of the college basketball season and hasn't exactly built a reputation of being a hard worker. Williams is a really athletic player and an amazing shotblocker, but his offensive game is extremely limited and he isn't that strong.
X-Factor: Nenad Krstic - I think people might be expecting a bit too much from Krstic this year. He's a fairly skilled offensive player, but even before his "breakout" year last year was cut short, he was putting up slightly above-average offensive production. He's not a very good rebounder and he's not a shotblocker, which are two things the Nets really need in the frontcourt. If he can continue to improve his interior scoring and improve a bit as a rebounder and defensive presence, then he can make them really good. Eventually, they'd love to play him a lot with Sean Williams so that the two can cover one another's weaknesses, but Krstic is going to have to become a better rebounder at the very least in order to raise his game to another level.
Overview
The Nets had a mediocre season last year and were pretty lucky to make the playoffs as they actually had a negative point differential. They did suffer injuries to two key players in Jefferson and Krstic, However, with Jefferson, Carter and Kidd on the roster, you almost have to expect injuries to be a problem. They ended up being a mediocre offensive team and mediocre defensive team. The bench was pretty awful, and this year they'll be relying on some of their younger guys (Boone and the Williamses) to be bigger contributors. To some extent, you can blame last year on injuries, but on the other hand you have to realize that this is a team where the stars are getting older and they just aren't a championship contender anymore.
Prediction
If the core of the team stays healthy, the Nets could be really solid, maybe even competing for the East title, but their days of contending are over. They were much worse defensively last year than they've been in years, and they're not exactly an offensive juggernaut. Even if they stay injury-free and Kidd and Carter don't decline, these guys would never be able to take down a team like San Antonio or Houston in a 7 game series. The more likely situation is that they struggle with injuries along the way and have a slightly above-average season.
7th in the East - Not Very Good, But Hey, It's The East!
Coach: Doc Rivers 2006-2007 Record: 24-58 06-07 Expected Record: 31-51 Offensive Rating: 102.9 (29th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 107.2 (17th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 47.9% (28th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 92.0 (12th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Roster turnover anyone?
I've got to say, I'm sold on the big three. There are stars this wouldn't work for, but these guys all are desperate for a title, they're professional and likable, and they're willing to do whatever it takes to get that ring.
Pierce is a really good offensive player. He's a decent rebounder, passes the ball well, and is a really good shooter. Undoubtedly though, his biggest strength is getting to the free throw line, he's almost always among the league leaders in FT attempts, where he shoots 80%.
Be prepared to watch Ray Allen shoot an absolutely absurd percentage this year. Pierce and Garnett are going to get him a ton of open looks, and he's the best pure shooter in the league. He's going to be a defensive liability, and Doc Rivers is going to have to be careful with his minutes since he's the most likely member of the 3 to break down,but he's a tremendous complement to The Truth and The Big Ticket.
You know, I think we've started to overlook KG as he's struggled in futility the last few years, up to the point where we actually thought Al Jefferson and change was decent trade value for him. He might still be the game's best rebounder in the league and he's a great passer. Defensively, he's one of the best players of the last decade, he's got incredible defensive instincts. You could see his frustration mounting with each season he was asked to single-handedly carry the Wolves. He looks happier this preseason than we've seen him in years. I was all set to pan Boston for the Ray Allen move, but then McHale gift wrapped KG for them and it instantly changed their outlook. More than any either of the other two guys, he's the one that will make this work; he's desperate for a ring.
Rajon Rondo isn't much of an offensive player, but he's a great defender. He's got great quickness and really long arms that make him hell to play against. He's also a really good rebounder for a guard his size. He'll have to take on a much bigger role this year, probably playing 35-40 minutes a game because they don't have anyone behind him. For a first-year point guard, he actually performed pretty well last year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him surprise people this season with a solid year.
Kendrick Perkins is a serviceable big man on a team like this. He plays good defense and is a decent rebounder. I wouldn't be surprised if KG makes him look really good this season by getting him a bunch of open looks.
The big weakness on this team is that the weak spots in their starting lineup (PG & C) have absolutely no help off the bench. Tony Allen, James Posey, Eddie Jones and Dahntay Jones make a decent group of backup forwards, but Scot Pollard and Glen Davis are the only real post players off the bench, and Gabe Pruitt is the only pure point. Since you can't expect any of those guys to contribute that much, they're going to have to shuffle people around. Pierce or Allen can both handle the ball well enough to take over the point a little bit. Garnett will play a good deal of center with Scalabrine or Pollard at PF.
Overview
It is almost useless to take a look at last year's team because so much is different now. The team underwent a huge shift in the offseason, bringing in two future Hall of Famers still near the top of their game. Interestingly enough, the Celts were actually a decent defensive team last year. They return most of their top defensive players (Rondo, Allen, Perkins) and added KG and Posey, which should give them a strong defensive team next year in addition to the offensive firepower of KG, Pierce, and Allen.
Prediction
I'm sold on this team. Allen, Pierce and KG are a great combination of star players who are hungry for a ring, and they have styles that compliment one another nicely. Do they have a great supporting cast? Not so much, but how much of a supporting cast do you really need with 3 guys like that? Also remember that any veteran free agent on a losing team who gets bought out (which happens almost every year it seems. Sam Cassell is the most likely candidate this year) will want to sign with the Celtics to gun for a ring. My only issue with this team is Doc Rivers, and if he'll have the common sense to manage the time of his 3 stars to keep them fresh for the playoffs. They may not have the best record in the East for the regular season, and they might get taken down by an early injury to a guy like Allen, but I think they're the Eastern conference's best shot to take out a Western team.
I'm loving having cable TV in the dorm room. I've watched the Team USA vs. Canada game, part of the Argentina vs. Mexico game, and the Team USA vs. Brazil game. Sure, the games involving the US aren't exactly compelling basketball, but it's interesting to see players that I don't usually get a look at, and also to see how the US players fit into a system full of stars. Some things I saw...
- If I were George Karl, I'd be trying as hard as possible to duplicate the international style of play in Denver's offense, cause Melo is a monster in the international game. He plays well off the ball and has such a versatile game that he's almost impossible to stop. Just check out these lines from the 4 US games:
16 MIN - 17 PTs 17 MIN - 22 PTs 18 MIN - 25 PTs 17 MIN - 21 PTs
That's just obscene. Seriously, I realize the competition they're playing against, but that's nasty. With a full season to mesh together, I would be very scared of the Nuggets. They have 2 elite scorers and a great defensive center, they're absolutely a championship contender.
- Olu Famutimi was the only player on Team Canada who looked remotely like he belonged on the same floor as the US players. Sam Dalembert was a complete non-factor, but Famutimi (who is currently playing in the D-League) was a dynamic player
- I think Luis Scola is going to be a huge asset for the Rockets. He's a skilled player, but he's gritty and works hard on every play. From what I saw, he has a solid jumpshot and a good passing eye for a big man. He's also much more athletic than I thought, and rebounds very well.
- Nene looked terrible. Really, really terrible. He's gained weight since the end of the NBA season, and he missed easy opportunities on multiple occasions.
- I really like Tiago Splitter. After watching him against the US, I'm shocked that he wasn't picked sooner in the draft. He's very athletic and an excellent ball-handler for a guy his size. He took Carmelo Anthony to the hoop multiple times from the elbow area, and Melo isn't lacking in the quickness department. To think of him on the Spurs a year from now is scary.
- Kobe is stunningly good when he wants to be. We all know he's the best offensive player in the league, but when he wants to be, he's an incredible defender too. The fact of the matter is that if Kobe comes out and plays hard, the Lakers are a playoff team next year, if he sulks through the season, they'll be terrible.
- I love Jason Kidd.
Other thoughts on the NBA offseason:
- Other than practically giving away Luis Scola to a division rival, I really like the Spurs' offseason. The acquisition of Ime Udoka and the signing of 2005 first round pick Ian Mahinmi, in addition to resigning basically everyone makes them look like the favorites to repeat, as well as having very solid future prospects.
- Orlando signed Adonal Foyle to replace Darko, and he'll probably give them about the same contributions they got from Darko last year, but for way less money than they'd be paying Darko. They overpaid for Rashard, but they'll definitely be better this year.
- I still think that Phoenix should've gone for KG, but other than that they've had a very solid offseason. Grant Hill was a great pickup, and he'll even help give Nash some rest because he can run the point from the SF position. D.J. Strawberry was a steal as late as they got him, I guarantee he gets some burn next year.
- The Grizzlies are my sleepers for next year. They've got great young talent at every position, and I think they'll really work in Marc Iavaroni's Phoenix-style system. I love that they went out and got Gasol's Spanish team buddy Juan Carlos Navarro.
- I didn't like Houston's draft. I hated that they passed on a bunch of very talented power forwards to reach for an undersized point guard (Aaron Brooks). However, they've had a very good offseason overall. They took a position that was a huge weakness (PG) and made it into a strength, with Steve Francis, Mike James, and Brooks. The starter from last year Rafer "Skip 2 My Lou" Alston, will be 3rd or 4th on the depth chart. They've also significantly improved their PF position by brining in Luis Scola, Jackie Butler, and Carl Landry to replace Juwan Howard. If Yao stays healthy and McGrady can play 60-65 games and be healthy in the playoffs, they're absolutely a legit contender.
- I don't like that Dallas did nothing to shake up their team. Coming off 2 consecutive postseason chokes (Yes, I know the Warriors were a bad matchup. No, I don't care. Losing to an 8 seed is a choke), they needed to make a move, and they didn't.
- James Posey was a great pickup for Boston. They desperately needed to pick up a backup small forward, and Posey is a solid defensive player who makes perimeter shots.
One last note. Hoff and I are going to be finishing up the NBA Legends Competition on Wednesday. I'm thinking arguments due at 5:00 PM EST, and voting will go for 2 days and end at 5:00 PM EST on Friday. Let me know if that's an issue for you Hoff. For the rest of you, tune in Wednesday and vote for whose team of all-time greats is superior.
Start stockpiling provisions, the apocalypse is coming. The Hawks actually made the right move in this draft by taking the best player on the board and the best point guard on the board. The Hawks now have a scary core group of Law, Johnson, M. Williams, Childress, Smith, Horford, S. Williams, and Pachulia that could contend in the east for the next decade. Of course, this is the Hawks, and Billy Knight is still in charge, so that probably won't happen, but it's a very promising young group.
Boston Celtics - Thumbs Up
Picks - Gabe Pruitt (32), Glen Davis (35)
Well, it's hard to argue with basically trading the #5 pick for Ray Allen. Regardless of what happens with Allen's foot surgery and how his game will hold up with age, that's an incredibly cheap price for a guy with his talent. Their two draft picks, Pruitt and Davis, were both great values who went about 10 picks later than they should have. Pruitt should immediately help as a point guard with a jumpshot, and Davis was a great value who could turn out to be a star if he keeps his weight down. Few players in the draft were as adept post scorers as Davis; he's reminiscent of Zach Randolph without the off-the-court problems.
Charlotte Bobcats - On The Fence
Picks - Jared Dudley (22), Jermareo Davidson (36)
I was a huge fan of the Dudley pick when it happened, but I don't like it as much after the trade. Charlotte desperately needs more post players, especially with Okafor and May's health issues. Once they traded Wright, they didn't have that help coming in. I think they probably would've been better off with Tiago Splitter or Josh McRoberts there. I liked the trade, and there is the possibility that they could pick up another post in free agency, but that's a bit of a risk, as there aren't many good low post guys out there (Milicic and Varejao are really the headliners). Still, they did some good things and I like the way the franchise is heading in general.
I hate the Noah pick, absolutely hate it. He's an inferior player to Tyrus Thomas and Ben Wallace in almost every way. The Bulls are a legitimate post scorer away from being a championship contender, and they had Spencer Hawes on the board. Not only did they pass on Hawes, but they also didn't make a move on Zach Randolph. I still think they should pursue a deal for Jermaine O'Neal (Thomas, Noah, Thabo Sefolosha and sign & trade P.J. Brown), but they don't seem interested in that either. For a team so close to contending, the Bulls seem very hesitant to make an aggressive move, and that would scare me if I were a Bulls fan.
We've known for a while that Stuckey was their man, but I think they missed an opportunity when Nick Young fell to them. Stuckey is kind of a poor man's Randy Foye, and should be a decent combo guard in the league. However, Young has all-star level talent on the same level as Corey Brewer. Affalo is a Detroit-type player, but they don't really have a need at SG after taking Stuckey, and they had Marcus Williams, Glen Davis and Josh McRobert all available, who are better talents and need positions.
Indiana Pacers - ???
Picks - Stanko Barac (39)
I have no opinion. He's a face-the-basket 7-footer, and that rarely works out, but whatever.
Miami Heat - Thumbs Down
Picks - Daequan Cook (21)
Memo to Pat Riley: your team is aging quickly and you need to win now. Of all the gaps the Heat desperately need to fill, I don't think "inexperienced shooting guard with attitude problems" was one of them. If the Heat really wanted a shooter, Morris Almond was a much better pick there. Really, anyone was a better pick there. Kudos for bluffing Philly into giving up a second rounder to switch spots with you, but Cook is a terrible pick.
Milwaukee Bucks - On The Fence
Picks - Yi Jianlian (6), Ramon Sessions (56)
The decision on the Bucks' draft will be made sometime in the next few days as the Yi situation is fleshed out. If it turns out Yi isn't so averse to going to Milwaukee or if the Bucks trade him (Golden State is the likely candidate), then taking a chance on the best available talent was worth it. If not and Yi either doesn't show up or skulks through the season, then the Bucks made a terrible mistake. Time will tell on this one. Sessions was a great pick up that late though. He was a guy who people were talking about as a possible low first rounder after he had some impressive camps. Landing him at 56 was a great pick for the Bucks at a need position.
New Jersey Nets - Thumbs Up
Picks - Sean Williams (17)
I've wavered on this quite a bit, but in the end I think it was the right pick for the Nets. This is a franchise in limbo, and they need something big to happen. If Williams is able to display the kind of play that he showed at the beginning of the season for Boston College, this pick is a steal. It's a huge risk, but it's obvious that the Nets really thought this one out.
New York Knicks - Thumbs Down
Picks - Wilson Chandler (23), Demetris Nichols (53)
What will it take to get Isaiah Thomas fired? Check my last post if you want a detailed explanation of why the Zach Randolph trade was terrible for New York. Outside of that disaster, the Knicks reached on Wilson Chandler after they made a promise to him, they could've gotten him 10 picks later. I don't care if Isaiah knows talent, he's a crappy executive in every other facet.
Orlando Magic - Who Cares
Picks - Milovan Rakovic (60)
...Moving on.
Philadelphia 76ers - Thumbs Up
Picks - Thaddeus Young (12), Jason Smith (20), Derrick Byars (42), Herbert Hill (55)
I love almost everything about the Sixers' draft. Smith is a great pick for their PF need, Byars was an amazing value at 42, as was Hill at 55. However, I don't particularly like Young at 12, since I think Thornton and Wright were were better picks there. Also, they basically traded their 30th pick for the 42nd pick (cash considerations always bug me). All in all though, they had a very solid draft.
Toronto Raptors - Again, I Don't Care
Picks - Giorgos Printezis (58)
Darn this European influx. Again, I know nothing about this guy.
Washington Wizards - Thumbs Up
Picks - Nick Young (16), Dominic McGuire (47)
The Wizards got two steals where they were drafting. Young is a stud player who could've gone as high as #8 to Charlotte. McGuire is a great athlete who is a strong defender. For a pick that late, he's a great value.
Well, that's it for NBA stuff for a while. I'll post some on various deals that may happen in the offseason, but probably no more large NBA posts until I preview the next season.
ames has to be the MVP.
rleans. Chris Paul has to be the MVP.
ut the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.
gue, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.
ion is Dwight "The Hammer" Howard. It has a nice ring to it, and it fits his game to a tee. Thoughts?
r a big man. He’s also an exceptional mid-range shooter, so
you can’t just play off him. He’s got great touch around the rim, and
defensively he blocks shots without fouling. His big problem so far has been
injury. The Raptors need him to shake off the foot problems that bothered him
this summer, cause they don’t have a prayer without him. 
im (63.8%). You can probably expect that percentage to
drop off, but I also expect that Calderon will add more of a perimeter shot
this year, which should offset that somewhat. Defensively he’s very solid, and
at 6’3 has the height to make it tough to shoot over him (as opposed to Ford,
who often might as well not even be there). 
good rebounder
for his position. He’ll probably be the main backup at the 2 and 3 spots, and
if his jumpshot really is that improved, he could steal the starting spot from
Kapono. 
ayer
coming over from the European game, he also improved a huge amount in the
second half of last year. He’s got a lot to work on, rebounding and defense
being the highest priority, but Bargnani should be a solid player, and possibly
a star in the making. His playing style and ability to hit from the outside
makes him a great compliment to Bosh in the interior, and his improvement will
go a long way towards determining where this team finishes. 
ot and his turnovers. He's a great finisher, gets to the free throw line, rebounds well, has great court vision for a G/F, and he's a very good defender. He's a great piece for them to build around, and he may well be an All-Star this year. 
r a guy who is 6'8. However, he's a turnover machine, and he doesn't really do anything other than rebound. So, of course, he's also making $4.5 mil a year over the next 4 years. If only they could combine Korver and Evans into some sort of super-rebounding/super-shooting Frankenstein's monster. 
m them. If you're making that kind of money, you can't just be a good rebounder and shotblocker. The Dalembeast either needs to add some offensive component to his game other than turning the ball over an inordinate amount of times, or he needs to become an elite-level shotblocker and rebounder. If he doesn't improve, he might combine with Evans to give the Sixers the most turnover prone and offensively inept frontcourt in the league.
eer numbers, but he actually had a very efficient year as far as scoring the ball. He got to the free throw line more often and shot the best 3PT percentage of his career. The main problem with Marbury is that he just doesn't fit with this team. Even at his best, he's not a great outside shooter, and he isn't the distributor that this team needs. He'd work much better on a team like Miami or Cleveland where someone else (Lebron or Wade) can be the primary playmaker.
e way better off if David Lee took more minutes from Curry. Curry just has way too many weaknesses in his game.
lly important, especially for a team like the Knicks which has so many score-first players.
ting team and the only team that turned the ball over more often than New York was Orlando. So, with so many bad contracts and similar players who don't play defense on the roster,what did Isiah decide to? Well, he brought in the massive contract of Zach Randolph, who is a very similar player to Eddy Curry except that he can rebound.
r. He actually has shot pretty well from outside and mid-range over the last few years, but his problem was finishing close to the rim, where he shot pretty poorly. On the defensive end, Kidd is a bit overrated since he really struggles with quicker players at this point. He's a smart defender and he still makes an impact with his rebounding, but he's not a first-team All-Defensive teamer anymore. He remains one of the best leaders in the game, and he and Nash are the only guys who REALLY make all their teammates substantially better. The Nets have to be worried about his age and injuries (he was having some back problems this preseason), since it's all over if he goes down.
ting to spot up from distance or go all the way to the rim and finish. He's so dependent on his athleticism though that when he suffers physical problems, he completely breaks down. He's also a pretty good rebounder and a strong defender when healthy. Of course all this is contingent on Jefferson staying healthy, which he's had some trouble with the last few years.
of being a hard worker. Williams is a really athletic player and an amazing shotblocker, but his offensive game is extremely limited and he isn't that strong. 
njuries, but on the other hand you have to realize that this is a team where the stars are getting older and they just aren't a championship contender anymore.
tting to the free throw line, he's almost always among the league leaders in FT attempts, where he shoots 80%.
ale gift wrapped KG for them and it instantly changed their outlook. More than any either of the other two guys, he's the one that will make this work; he's desperate for a ring.
nterestingly enough, the Celts were actually a decent defensive team last year. They return most of their top defensive players (Rondo, Allen, Perkins) and added KG and Posey, which should give them a strong defensive team next year in addition to the offensive firepower of KG, Pierce, and Allen.
a monster in the international game. He plays well off the ball and has such a versatile game that he's almost impossible to stop. Just check out these lines from the 4 US games:
ndler for a guy his size. He took Carmelo Anthony to the hoop multiple times from the elbow area, and Melo isn't lacking in the quickness department. To think of him on the Spurs a year from now is scary.
uis Scola, Jackie Butler, and Carl Landry to replace Juwan Howard. If Yao stays healthy and McGrady can play 60-65 games and be healthy in the playoffs, they're absolutely a legit contender.