If you're not pumped about this year's NBA postseason, you might want to check your pulse. No fooling around, without further ado, we get to the picks.
East - First Round
1) Boston Celtics vs. 8) Atlanta Hawks
I'm not going to spend time talking about this one, Boston wins this one in a walk.
Pick: Boston
2) Detroit Pistons vs. 7) Philadelphia 76ers
I think this is going to be a deceivingly close series. Detroit has a tendency to take things for granted, and Philly has come on like gangbusters at the end of the year. They've got some legitimately good young players and they're so athletic that they can really score in bunches on you. They're not going to win the series, but I think it could go 6 close games.
Pick: Detroit
3) Orlando Magic vs. 6) Toronto Raptors
Both these teams confuse me. I really don't like Orlando, and I really think Toronto is better than they're showing. However, I just don't think Toronto has enough to win here. Bosh vs. Howard is a fantastic matchup, but the Raptors can't match up with both Lewis and Turkoglu. The disappointment of Bargnani really leaves them at a disadvantage at the forward spot. I want to call the upset here since T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon vs. Jameer Nelson is a big advantage, but I just don't like the matchups. The Raptors could win this one, but I'm not seeing it.
Pick: Orlando
4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5) Washington Wizards
Best first round matchup in the East. I was all ready to call the Wizards on this one, but they decided to go and mouth off about LeBron. Seriously, they've got huge edges against the Cavs at every position but SF, and they keep poking at the one guy capable of completely taking over a playoff series. Seriously guys, you think taunting LeBron is the way to go? The only way the Wizards lose this series is if LeBron goes nuts, and they keep giving him ample reason to do so. I don't know what to do with this. Washington is the better team, but betting against LeBron in this situation doesn't sit well with me. I'm very tenatively picking Washington, but I think it's almost 50-50.
Pick: Washington
Second Round
1) Celtics vs. 5) Washington
I like Tough Juice and I like Arenas coming off the bench, but the Celtics are just too good. They're a lockdown defensive team, and they can throw enough strong finishers at PF and C out there to overwhelm a weak Washington frontline.
Pick: Boston
2) Pistons vs. 3) Magic
Again, the Pistons scare me because of their complacency, and Dwight Howard will probably have a few crazy games in these playoffs. Still though, Detroit's the deeper and more talented team, and I just can't see Orlando pulling this one off. Unlike Toronto, they've got the lengthy wing defenders that can match up with Lewis and Turkoglu
Conference Finals
1) Boston vs. 2) Detroit
Great matchup, and I think this one could easily go 7. KG vs. Sheed, Pierce vs. Prince, Rondo vs. Billups. We've got some really dynamic defensive matchups here. Last year, I probably go with Detroit here. However, after watching them flame out so spectacularly against Cleveland and witnessing their cavalier attitude at times this year, I can't do it. The Celtics are desperate for a title, and they're going to show up each game. Also, I don't think you're taking a game 7 at the Garden, I'm just not seeing that.
First Round - West
1) LA Lakers vs. 8) Denver Nuggets
This is the matchup that the Lakers wanted to see. Much as I like Denver as a sleeper pick, their biggest weakness is that they leave far too many shooters open on the perimeter, and the Lakers just have way too many good shooters. You can't beat LA if you're going to leave Derek Fisher wide open 6-7 times a game. Denver can win a game or two, but I don't think they've got a shot at the upset.
Pick: Lakers
2) New Orleans Hornets vs. 7) Dallas Mavericks
The next three series are all ridiculously close. I like New Orleans in this one. They have trouble defending Dirk, but I don't think Dallas can handle Chris Paul. The thing I'm most concerned about with the Hornets is their depth, and in a first round series against a team that plays as slow as Dallas I don't see that being a factor. It's gonna be close, but I just don't think Chris Paul is losing this series.
Pick: New Orleans in a close one
3) San Antonio Spurs vs. 6) Phoenix Suns
You know, I was all set to pick San Antonio to win it all without any reservations. Then, they had to go and get matched up against their worst matchup. Is this a fantastic series or what? The rivalry between these teams, the star power, everything, it's amazing. Shaq defends Duncan as well as anyone, and Grant Hill has done a shockingly good job shutting down Tony Parker in the 4th quarter. Amare is playing out of his mind right now and Nash is still Nash. Here's the thing though, I'm still picking the Spurs. Duncan in the regular season isn't Duncan in the playoffs, and I don't think Shaq can guard Playoff Duncan without fouling out quickly. Also, last year the Manu-Barbosa thing was kind of a wash. This year, Barbosa has taken a step back and Manu has blown up to an All-NBA level. Phoenix doesn't have anyone who can handle him. This is such a killer matchup, and I think whoever wins it probably has a good shot at winning it all.
Pick: San Antonio
4) Houston Rockets vs. 5) Utah Jazz
Here's the irony of the thing, Houston might be better equipped to beat Utah this year than they were last year. Much as I love Yao, he wasn't effective defensively at all against Carlos Boozer or against Deron Williams on the pick and roll. This year, Houston's power forwards are so much better and their much more mobile as a team without Yao. They're playing really fantastic defense right now. On the other side, I really don't believe in the Jazz. Their post defense is just so weak. I honestly think this could be an upset, especially with how poorly Utah plays on the road. The thing that holds me back from picking the Rockets is Rafer Alston's injury. He has really done a great job on both ends of the floor this year, and I don't think Houston can take both of the first two games without him. Also, Utah can throw both Ronnie Brewer and AK47 at T-Mac all series, and I think he's going to run out of gas a bit. Utah is the pick, but it's going to be closer than people think.
Pick: Utah
Second Round
1) Lakers vs. 4) Jazz
No way the Jazz win back-to-back series without home court advantage, I'm just not seeing it. They're actually fairly similar teams in a lot of ways, LA has more depth and they've got Kobe, and that's the difference. Honestly, I don't think this one will be all that close.
Pick: LA
2) Hornets vs. 3) Spurs
The problem I've had with the Hornets is their depth, and that's still the issue. Jannero Pargo is good off the bench, and Bonzi Wells is decent at SF, but if Tyson Chandler gets in foul trouble they've got nobody behind him. I don't see him going a whole series against Duncan without landing in significant foul trouble. San Antonio is just too good, New Orleans doesn't have the defenders to match up with Duncan, Parker and Manu.
Pick: Spurs
Conference Finals
1) Lakers vs. 3) Spurs
If Andrew Bynum were healthy, it would be awfully tough to pick against the Lakers. As is, I don't think anyone on this LA team even comes close to slowing Timmy. I've felt all year that LA's defense is a bit of a mirage, not quite as good as the numbers indicate, and I'm sticking to that. Without Bynum, I just don't see them stopping the Spurs. Sorry Laker fans, but the Spurs are a great defensive team and they've got Duncan, that's enough for me in this case.
NBA Finals
1) Celtics vs. 3) Spurs
I really want to pick the Spurs here, I do. I believe they've earned that respect. They always turn it on in the playoffs, and they're awfully good. The thing is, they'll be coming off a much harder road to the Finals, and Boston matches up well with them. Garnett is the rare player who can really bother Duncan, Rondo vs. Parker is a great matchup, and Boston has better depth. So, much as I hate to do it, the pick is...ah screw it, I'm going with the Spurs. I can't bet against them, I just can't. I think Duncan is about to remind us of why he's one of the top ten players ever.
Great picks man. Although in truth, I think the biggest threat in WC is the Suns at the moment. I had a bad feeling when I saw Shaq come back to the West and I think without Andrew Bynum, it will be hard for the Lake show to beat the Suns if they ever match up against each other. But no! Not the Spurs as champs again! I can't bear to see them repeat. I think this year is either the Celtics or the Lakers.
now I know the world has gone crazy, you are picking the Spurs while I am picking the Suns. Kudo's for your non-homer picks.
I still want to see the Lakers and the Suns in the Western conference final. And I think D. Stern wants this too, so maybe your Suns don't get hosed by the refs this year.
I've said this before (maybe I should put it in my profile), I'm not a Suns fans. The phoenix in my name refers to the mythological bird, not the city (it's a SN I've used for a while). I'm actually from North Carolina and I've never been a devoted fan of any particular team. College basketball is another story, but I'm not really partial to any one NBA team.
I'm not anti-Lakers, but I'm not pro-Lakers either, and on these blogs the second is often mistaken for the first. It's one of the things I hate about FoxSports, If I say anything about the Lakers that isn't glowingly positive, I'm a "hater"
I'm not going to say that I'm completely unbiased, because you're always going to have teams or players you enjoy watching or you respect how they carry themselves, and that's going to color your view some, but I will say that I try as hard I possibly can to stay impartial.
As I wrote in your blog on MVP candidates, I can't pick against Duncan who I think is the true MVP, despite being a Laker's fan.
So, I agree with all of xphoenix87's picks, except for Cleveland winning the first round against Wash, then losing in the 2nd round. Somewhat of a lame duck comment, because Cleveland won the 1st game. An interesting stat I saw was that the winner of game 1 in the 1st round won the series 83% of the time. That must be one of the highest advantages of that sort in sports.