I'm back. After a rather long period of posting nothing, I've found enough free time to put together some observations on a fantastic NBA regular season that will be coming to a close shortly.

The Post-Shaq Suns (disclaimer: I wrote this before the Celtics game tonight)
The most surprising trade of the season drew negative criticism pretty much universally. Recently, with Phoenix's 7 game win streak, some analysts have changed their tune. I'm out to answer the question "What have the actual effects of the Shaq trade been?"

At first glance, Phoenix's offense has gotten better and their defense has gotten worse. Their offensive efficiency is 114.4 with Shaq, as opposed to 111.95 before the trade, a significant improvement. Conversely, their defensive efficiency has gone from 106 before the trade to 111.93 after it, which is a huge decline in performance. This supports what I would expect, that the loss of Shawn Marion and the addition of Shaq would hurt the team defensively, though I probably wouldn't have expected that kind of discrepancy. However, those numbers don't tell the entire story. Phoenix has played an extraordinarily difficult schedule since the trade, playing an amazing 13 teams with .500+ records out of the 17 total that they've played. The combined winning percentage of the teams they've played is 56.4%.

So, because I always go the extra mile for you guys, I took a look at the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings of each of Phoenix's opponents during the post-trade stretch and compared them to what they did against Phoenix during this stretch. If you don't really care about this, just skip the next two paragraphs and I'll sum it up at the end.

Defensively, things looked quite a bit better viewed this way. Phoenix's defense was about 1.2 points per hundred possessions (pp100 from now on) better than the league average before the trade, and they've allowed their opponents an average of 3.26 pp100 more than their average since the trade. That's a net difference of 4.46 pp100, which is 1.5 less than the 5.93 we found originally, so it's a pretty substantial difference. Phoenix's defense still got worse after the trade, but not as much as our stats originally showed.(If I went over your head with this, here's the nutshell version: I made an adjustment for the fact that the teams Phoenix played since the trade are above-average offensively).

On the other side of the ball, Phoenix's offense also looked better when adjusting for the competition. That's not surprising considering that 9 of their 17 games have come against the league's top nine defensive teams. Phoenix was 4.75 pp100 above league average before the trade. After the trade, they've averaged 8.07 pp100 more than their opponents typically allow. That's a net difference of 3.32 pp100 since the trade, which is about .7 higher than the 2.5 we found originally. (Basically the same note as before. I just adjusted for how good Phoenix's opponents have been defensively)

So, a rough estimate of the overall result of the Shaq trade is that Phoenix has gotten better offensively by 3.32 pp100 and worse defensively by 4.46 pp100.

What does this tell us? Well, the decline in Phoenix's defense was pretty predictable when they lost Shawn Marion. However, I think a lot of people would be surprised to know that their offense has improved almost as much as the defense has regressed. Not only that, but Phoenix's offense should continue to improve. Shaq's turnover rate has been unusually high since coming to Phoenix, and the team's turnovers are up. As Shaq figures out the system and the team continues to adjust to him, those turnovers should drop significantly.

Do I think Phoenix is a contender? Not really, their defense is just too poor. However, they've surprised me a bit by the way they're coming together. It wouldn't surprise me if they keep improving till the end of the year and make an intriguing case for playoff contention.

Deceptive Teams
One of the best predictors of playoff success is margin of victory, not actual winning percentage (surprised? It's true). Two teams in the East really stand out when looking at this factor. Cleveland's record is 40-31, but their margin of victory predicts a record of 35-36. Not a good sign for the Cavs. On the flip side, the Raptors have a record of 35-35 while their margin of victory predicts a record of 42-28. If the Raptors make a surprising playoff run, don't say I didn't warn you.

Dallas Despair
Honestly, I'm really sad that Dirk went down. It means that there's now a legitimate excuse for them choking away the end of the year, and my skepticism of the Kidd trade can't be validated. Oh well. I feel sorry for Dirk that he won't be able to vindicate himself for the last two playoff collapses. At any rate, it certainly clears up the Western playoff picture a bit. No way that a fading Dallas team holds on without Dirk in the lineup.

Other Notes

- I'm kind of sick of reading that LeBron's numbers are inflated by playing in the East and that Kobe's numbers would be higher playing in the East (this is very popular in many MVP posts I've seen). The truth is that for any two teams in the league, at least 56 games on the schedule will be identical. By the end of the year, the strength of schedule for most teams will be nearly identical (the difference between the winning percentages of the hardest schedule and easiest schedule right now is 3.2%). Six of the top twelve defensive teams reside in the East. It's a foolish argument that doesn't have any credibility behind it.

- This quote was very telling to me. It's a perfect example of Isiah's incompetence as well as an example of how classy a guy Deke is. Seriously, how can you not like Dikembe Mutumbo?
"After one season with New York in 2003-04, Mutombo was told by then-general manager and now head coach of the Knicks Isiah Thomas that the day had come, and that blunt message has driven him for the past four years. 'It's still a wound,' Mutombo said. 'My wife and I still talk about it. It's still a bit sad to see the commissioner coming and all those people coming to celebrate the 17 years of my career and accomplishments and you look back and say that about (four) years ago, I had a guy tell me that I couldn't play basketball no more, to go to the beach and onto vacation. That's the same guy who's losing his job tomorrow. ... I never said nothing (to Thomas),' Mutombo said. 'The last time we played at the Garden (Jan. 9), my wife asked me to go shake his hand, to just forgive him. I went and shook his hand and I told him, 'On behalf of my wife, I want to shake your hand and I forgive you for everything you've done to me.'" (From the Houston Chronicle via Truehoop)

 

- Look, I don't care what you think about Chris Webber, the man belongs in the Hall of Fame, and I heard a lot of speculation that he shouldn't get in on Sportscenter today. I think people are too quick to remember the hobbled C-Webb struggling through these last few seasons, and too quick to forget the constant 20-10-5 seasons he kept throwing up in Sacramento. He was All-NBA 5 straight times, he will go down in history as one of the greatest passing big men ever, and his Sacramento teams will be one of the best teams that no one remembers because they ran into the buzzsaw that was the Lakers dynasty. Health concerns robbed him of a few more good years, but Webber was one of the best power forwards of all time in his prime. He's a sure-fire Hall of Famer in my book.

- I was watching the McDonalds All-American Game tonight (I'll have more on this in a blog post soon, hopefully tomorrow) and the #1 recruit in the country, Brandon Jennings, was sporting a "Will Smith in the early seasons of Fresh Prince"-style flattop. Simply put, it was awesome. If he keeps his hair like that all next season, he would officially be my favorite college basketball player.