You know, I’ve tried to write this post like 6 times, and every time I just stall at the beginning and give it up. Maybe I’ll actually get it written this time.

Anyway, we’ve hit the half way point of the NBA season. It’s time to look back at what we’ve learned, as well as look forward to what we can expect from the rest of the season. With that in mind, lets take a look at some of the teams that I really missed on.

Memphis Grizzlies
Wow, did I miss on these guys or what? Strangely enough, a lot of what I thought would happen with them did happen. Rudy #### really blossomed in his second year, becoming a potent scorer, J.C. Navarro has been one of the best rookies in the league and has had some truly spectacular shooting performances, and Mike Conley has played very well since returning from injury. They’re actually a decent offensive team. However, where I was wrong was thinking that they would be an improved defensive team. #### hasn’t been much of a defender, even though he has all the tools for it, Kyle Lowry isn’t having nearly as much impact as last year, and most importantly, Darko has been absolutely terrible. One reason I liked them so much was because an even slightly improved Darko would give them a much-needed shot-blocking presence in the back of their defense. Instead, Darko has, amazingly, been much, much worse than he was in Orlando last year. Of course, I also though 42 or 43 wins would get you into the playoffs out West, and that doesn’t appear to be the case at this point. Oh well, they’ll at least put themselves in good position to get Mike Beasley or DeAndre Jordan in the draft.

Chicago Bulls
I, like everyone else, have been pretty stunned by the poor performance of the Bulls. Now, to some extent we probably should’ve been able to see this coming. All the talk about a Kobe trade obviously had an effect on the young guys on this team. It was also painfully obvious that Ben Wallace was declining rapidly as a player. However, there’s no way that anyone could’ve predicted the inexplicably bad play of the Bulls’ young core players. To have one young guy regress when he should be improving is one thing, but for five guys under the age of 27? It’s absolutely incredible. Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Duhon and Thomas are all having worse seasons than last year. We’re not just talking about slightly worse either, we’re talking about them being significantly less productive. 7 of the top 8 guys on the team (with Joe Smith as the exception) are shooting worse than they were last season. It’s absolutely mind-blowing how the young Bulls have regressed. I think we’re going to see the Bulls in the playoffs at the end of this season 1) because they’re in the East, and as bad as they’ve been they’re only a game behind the Pacers for the last playoff spot right now, but also because 2) it’s absolutely unheard of for a team full of young players to take a huge step backwards like this, and I think they’ll bounce back some and be respectable by season’s end.

Portland Trailblazers
I actually kind of thought Portland would be better than most people thought they would, but I never thought they’d have this kind of success. The biggest shocker to me has been the extraordinary play of Brandon Roy. I’ll be honest, I thought Roy was a really good player when Portland drafted him, and I thought he’d make a few All-Star teams and be a really good player, but I never thought he’d be this good, this fast. He has become the unquestioned leader of the team that has the best chemistry in the league. He does all the little things and he’s a big-time clutch player, making big shots, big defensive stops and getting big rebounds. I’d be hard-pressed to name a player with a better hesitation move than Roy, he reminds me a bit of Nash in the way that he always looks like he’s completely under control. Of course, the other big reason for the Blazers’ success has been the brilliant coaching of Nate McMillan. This Blazers team has great chemistry, they run their offensive sets really well, and they use zone defenses as well as any team in the league. That’s great coaching, McMillan has got this young team executing and believing in themselves.

Those are the teams that have really surprised this year, but we’ve also learned a lot this season about the league’s elite teams. With that in mind, I’m taking another look at my list of potential contenders and cutting it down to size a bit.

My list from the preseason looked like this (in no particular order): Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Jazz, Celtics, Nuggets, Bulls, Suns

My list now (again, in no particular order): Spurs, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers

So, why did I drop the teams I did?

Bulls are obvious, I’m not going to go over them

Jazz
They can’t defend the post at all, and I can’t bring myself to pick them in a conference with Duncan, STAT, Yao, Dirk, and now Bynum. You have to defend the post, and they can’t.

Mavs
Gone unnoticed by basically everyone is the fact that the Mavs’ defense has not been good this year. This team was 2nd in the league on offense and 5th on defense last year, this year they’re 2nd on offense and 18th on defense. Add that to their playoff failures the last two years and this team screams “paper tiger” to me.

Suns
Hardest drop from the list for me. I love Nash and I think this team is tremendously talented. However, they’re a worse defensive team than last year, and they aren’t going to win a title that way. Amare continues to be a weakness defensively in the post, and Brian Skinner brings defense, but he doesn’t have any offensive skills. Kurt Thomas was so great because he could both guard bigs and step out and hit the mid-range jumper, Skinner can’t do that. I hate it, but bad defensive teams don’t win titles.

You’ll notice a common theme on why I didn’t pick any of the previous teams. To put the importance of defense in perspective, there have only been 2 teams in the modern era who have won a title without a top 10 defense, and they were the ‘95 Rockets and the ’01 Lakers (who don’t even really count because they played great defense the year before and the year after and during the playoffs with essentially the same team, and obviously didn’t care about the regular season this year). Moral of the story is that defense is really important.

You may also be wondering why the Hornets didn’t make the list. Simply put, they don’t have a bench. I would take their starting five against any other starting unit in the league, but they don’t have the depth or the experience to make a deep run, especially not if anyone (read: Peja) gets hurt. I love the team, I love Chris Paul, they’re a great story, but I don’t think this is their year.

So, why the teams that I did pick?

I’m not going over the Spurs and Celtics, you all know why they’re on that list.

Nuggets
They have two possible starters who are out indefinitely with injury (Nene and Chucky Atkins), Carmelo’s production and efficiency is down significantly from his past two seasons, and they have a serious lack of three-point shooting. Still, they’re 25-16 and first in their division. The reason is because Allen Iverson has fully embraced being a co-star with Melo and is having the most efficient season of his career, and because Marcus Camby takes this team from being a very bad defensive team to being a very good defensive team. If Atkins comes back healthy or they can add one more shooter through a trade, I think this becomes a very dangerous offensive team as well as a good defensive team, and that makes them a contender.

Rockets
They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system. As I wrote back when I blogged the season-opener between LA and Houston, McGrady dominating the ball so much absolutely kills this offense, and they often look significantly better without him on the court. However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing.

Pistons
I left them off in the preseason because I thought they were missing the tough, killer-instinct, underdog mentality that fueled their last title run. What I didn’t count on was the Celtics getting off to a historical start and really lighting a fire under the Pistons to prove that they were the best team in the East. I honestly think that Boston’s great start had a positive impact on the Pistons, that it lit a fire under them that they didn’t have last year when LeBron trampled all over them in the playoffs. They’re also getting fantastic bench production and they execute and exploit weak defenders as well as any team in the league. I still don’t think they could beat the Spurs, but I think they could beat another team from the West if San Antonio doesn’t make the finals

Lakers
This one comes with a caveat. I reserve the right to dismiss this if the post-injury Bynum we get isn’t the same as pre-injury Bynum. LA has been a MUCH better defensive team this year because Bynum has been on the floor more, has become far less foul-prone, and has rebounded a lot better than last year. The bench and the contributions of Derek Fisher have been great, but Bynum is the key. He isn’t an elite player yet by any means, but he has great hands and finishes well on offense, and he improves their defense exponentially. If he comes back playing as well as early on this season, the Lakers are a long-shot contender.

Well, this post has run on long enough, and I’m sure you’re all tired of my wordiness. The last thing I’ll leave you with is my MVP pick for the first half of the season.

MVP: LeBron James
 With all due respect to Kevin Garnett’s fantastic work in Boston and Kobe’s exceptional play and leadership (who ‘da thunk it?), this isn’t even close. Yes, I know about Boston’s 33-7 record and how KG has gotten everyone playing great defense. I repeat, the MVP race is NOT EVEN CLOSE. Lebron uses more of his team’s possessions than anyone outside of DWade, and his offensive rating this year is 12 points higher than Flash! He averages 30-8-7 with 2 steals and a block, and he shoots almost 50%. Lebron’s AST% (an estimate of the percentage of his teammates’ field goals his assists while on the court) is 6th in the league. 6th! He’s one percentage point behind Deron Williams! It’s not quite MJ numbers that we’re talking about here, but we’re getting close. LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs. He’s the MVP, Period.

Alright, that’s it for me, I finally got this post cranked out. I’ll be sharing my opinions on the All-Star team next post, which should be pretty soon, so keep a look out for that.