Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Seattle Supersonics

Coach: P.J. Carlesimo
2006-2007 Record: 31-51
06-07 Expected Record: 34-48
Offensive Rating: 107.1 (10th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 110.4 (27th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 49.9% (14th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 91.8 (14th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

People keep bringing up other guys as prospective ROY candidates and saying that Durant isn't a shoo-in. Lets be honest here, If he's healthy, Durant is a shoo-in. The only guys who are even close to being as NBA-ready as Durant (Scola, Navarro, Horford, Thornton) aren't going to play nearly as big a role as Durant. Oh yeah, and Durant is an otherworldly talent, that helps too. He's gonna struggle at times and have those games where he goes 4 for 20, but he's also going to have brilliant nights where he drops 35 and scores from everywhere on the court.

I like Jeff Green, he's gonna be a great compliment to Durant. He's one of those solid guys who does everything well, doesn't take bad shots, and makes guys around him better. He might have a bit of a tough year as he adjusts to the speed of the NBA game, but he's going to be an excellent building block for their franchise.

Hey, remember back in 2002 when Maryland won the NCAA championship and everyone was raving about the athleticism and potential of Chris Wilcox? Remember how he got picked above Amare Stoudemire, Caron Butler, Tayshaun Prince and Carlos Boozer? Remember how he did absolutely nothing for 3 years? Well, Wilcox is finally living up to his talent and becoming a force. He still needs to polish up his game, but he's got every physical tool you could ask for in a post player. He's 6'10, strong, has long arms and a great vertical. He's also one of those guys who will go out of his way to try and dunk on you. I think he's primed for a really good season.

I don't like Luke Ridnour. He's an overrated offensive player and an absolutely TERRIBLE defensive player. Unfortunately, none of their other options at the point are real good. Their best option might be Delonte West, and he's more of a combo guard.

You know who I do like? Nick Collison, that's who I like. He's a really good rebounder, especially for a guy who's 6'9 and not especially athletic. Oh yeah, and he still looks like a frat boy, I think that's funny.

X-Factor: The Three-Headed Monster - You'd think that 2 lottery picks and another first rounder would produce at least one serviceable center, but not so for the Sonics. For their efforts, they have the super-raw Sene (who will probably spend a good chunk of time in the D-league), a guy who projects to be a decent backup for his career in Petro, and Swift, whose most notable achievement so far is being the only white player ever to be drafted straight out of high school. The real guy to watch for this year is Swift, who is the only one of the three to show much promise as a post scorer. However, it's unclear how many minutes he'll get as he returns from injury in a frontcourt that also has Collison, Wilcox, and Thomas. If they're going to make a quick turnaround to being a playoff team in the next few years, they need one of these guys to develop into a defensive presence at the very least, and hopefully some semblance of an offensive force.

Overview

The Sonics weren't going to be very good last year anyway, but it didn't help that their top 2 players missed a combined 49 games. They actually managed to be a pretty solid offensive team, but to say that they played matador defense would be a compliment, and that's not usually a recipe for winning basketball. Well, those two stars are now gone courtesy of offseason trades, and in their place Seattle has Jeff Green, Delonte West, Kurt Thomas and his expiring deal, 2 first round picks and a second round pick. Not a bad return on an aging star coming off double ankle surgery and a guy who was leaving via free agency anyway. It also helped to have the balls fall right and see one of the best prospects of the last decade fall into their laps in the draft. All in all, a pretty good offseason for the Sonics.

Prediction

The Sonics strike me as one of those teams that everyone kind of writes off as rebuilding, but that has so much talent and youthful energy that they end up surprising everyone. Now, I certainly don't think they'll be in the playoffs, but I don't think they'll be any worse than they were last year, and I can see them having a really good first few weeks and getting a couple of SI articles written about the "New Look Sonics". They're still going to be a poor defensive team, and they're going to be inconsistent (which comes from youth and a below-average point guard situation), but there will be nights when everything is clicking and Durant will carry them to victory over superior teams, he's that good. The real story with the Sonics isn't this year though, it's the bright future that the team secured for itself this offseason. They've got pretty reasonable contracts for everyone (except for Szcerbiak, who comes of the books in two years) and a ton of young talent and future draft picks. Within 2-3 years, they should be back in the playoffs and competitive again.

12th in the West - The Young Northwesterners