Ramblings of a Sports Nerd
by: xphoenix87
NBA Season Preview: San Antonio Spurs
Oct 22, 2007 | 7:46PM | report this

Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

San Antonio Spurs

Coach: Gregg Popovich
2006-2007 Record: 58-24
06-07 Expected Record: 60-22
Offensive Rating:
109.3 (5th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 99.8 (2nd in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 52.1% (2nd in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 89.8 (27th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Tim Duncan remains the one player I would want above all if I had to win a championship this year. The truly elite post players who dominate both ends can be counted on one hand, and Ducan is the best of them all. He's one of the 10 greatest players of all time, and he shows no signs of slowing down. There's not a more consistently excellent defensive player on the planet, and though he isn't a prolific scorer, he still scares the #### out of you in the playoffs because he can drop 30-20 on you without breaking a sweat.

I hate to make a judgment on just the playoffs, but it looks for all the world like Tony Parker made The Jump in the Finals last year. He eviscerated a really good Cavs team (4th best defensive team in the league, and they were particularly good against PGs), just getting to the rim at will and showcasing an solid jumpshot. Overall last year he had easily his best year, and he' keeps getting better.

I wonder if Ginobili will end up getting the bulk of the starts at shooting guard, or if he'll end up coming off the bench for the most part. The rotation of Manu, Finley, and Barry at the 2 is as good as any in the league. Manu brings an up-tempo, gunslinger style that the team sorely needs. Barry is one of the game's best spot-up shooters and he's got excellent court vision.

Horry continues to be an excellent sub in limited minutes, and while he doesn't do a whole lot during the regular season, his defensive presence and shooting range are invaluable in the playoffs.

Bonner and Udoka are kind of being groomed up as successors to Horry and Bowen. I'd expect them to get a decent chunk of minutes this year to keep the old guys fresh for the playoffs.

X-Factor: Oberto and Elson - Oberto is the more polished interior player. Elson is the more athletic, dynamic defender. If only San Antonio could combine them into one supercenter. The Spurs would love for Elson to continue to develop as a defensive presence and finisher to complement Duncan, though they'll probably continue to platoon equally like they did last year. The contributions of Elson and Oberto were a big reason why the Spurs were so good last year, since San Antonio had just been getting by with Rasho Nesterovic (who basically defines the term "big stiff") ever since The Admiral retired. With a full year of playing time in the Spurs' system for both of them, I'd expect the two-headed monster at center to see improved production.

It's really amazing the way the Spurs keep their roster together. They've got the best front office in sports. They return an amazing 98% of their minutes played from last year.

Overview

Contrary to popular belief, the Spurs were actually the best team in the regular season last year. They had the best margin of victory and were one of the most consistent teams in the league. They came into the playoffs without as much hype as Dallas and Phoenix, but they executed like they usually do and came away with another title. Sure, they caught a break against Phoenix, but they won all the other series convincingly, including their absolute decimation of the Cavs. They were a great defensive team, and a better offensive team than people usually give them credit for. They don't get many offensive rebounds, but they shoot a very high percentage and they take great care of the ball, which makes them a very effective offensive team. They also had maybe the best bench in the entire league. Ginobili (at times), Barry, Horry, Elson, and Vaughn are all very good backups who can provide different looks for the team. There aren't many teams out there with more balance than the Spurs had last year.

Prediction

I'm convinced that the Spurs have to be the prohibitive favorites to win this season. After they won last year, there were a slew of stories about how the Spurs can't be considered a dynasty because they haven't won back-to-back championships yet. We also got a bunch of stories about how good and underappreciated Duncan is. I think this year the Spurs will be playing to prove their place in history, and that TD will take down another MVP award as they run towards the title. They kept their entire core and added a strong backup SF in Udoka. Nobody has more balance, experience, and chemistry than the Spurs, and the presence of Duncan still puts them on a different level than everyone else.

1st in the West - Frontrunner

14 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NBA, San Antonio Spurs
 
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TrainOntheBall
Oct 22, 2007
8:31 PM
These guys are OLD. They might have peaked last season. The bench was non-existent for most of the year. But they're extremely professional so... who knows? I thought they needed to add a piece... and they didn't. Hell, get Danny Fortson or someone. What if Timmy gets hurt? They need to have backup options, and I don't feel that they do.

Tell you what... if they win this year, it will be the hardest-won title they've gotten.

onesouthernlion
Oct 22, 2007
9:15 PM
I've been a Spurs fan since they relocated from Dallas as the ABA Chapparrals in 1973. This year has to be the most complete returning roster in their history. 98% Of minutes played returning?
Good research.

OSL

pumpdude
Oct 23, 2007
7:33 AM
I wasn't going to comment but I can't help myself. This team is somewhat blessed in that they haven't suffered an injury to a key player for any amount of time and like Train said they are old so I figure the injuries can happen at any time. I also think that their championship from last year deserves an * considering what happened. Duncan remains a force but just about every team has that one guy that on any given night that can beat you.

Hoffman
Oct 23, 2007
8:51 AM
Good preview X.

I think San Antonio has definately built a dynasty.

If not for a heroic game winner from Derek Fisher and an untimely foul from Manu Ginobili on Dirk Nowitzki, last year's title would have been their fifth in a row.

That's how good the Spurs have been the past 5 years.

Tim Duncan is head and shoulders above any PF and maybe any pivotmen that has ever played the game.

It's a shame that people fail to appreciate his abilities.

xphoenix87
Oct 23, 2007
9:04 AM
Train - if Timmy gets hurt it's over. You can't get a backup for a guy like him. Luckily, other than struggling with Plantar Fasciitis in 05-06, Duncan has proved to be extremely resilient.

pump - As long as the big 3 stay healthy, and there's no reason why they shouldn't, the Spurs will be fine.

Hoff - When you step back and look at what Duncan has done over the last 10 years, it's really staggering. He's so consistently brilliant, and a lot of people don't realize just how dominant he is defensively.

tophatal
Oct 23, 2007
12:48 PM
xphoenix87
It speaks volumes of the franchise that they've been the model of consistency for the last decade. And even if most people think as of now that they're not able to win another title. I think that they'll be in for a big surprise even if the likes of Garnett is now teamed up with Pierce and Allen in Boston.
Feelings are that they'll be the team to beat in the East ? But they've got to play together consistently and at the same time a high level of consistently good ball if they're indeed to make it out out the conference and face the Spursin the Finals.

tophatal

Peeler
Oct 23, 2007
1:04 PM
pumpduded and train onbvalll

you dudes just do not get it. keep telling the spurs that they are old and that they got lucky last year with the phoenix series. That is what motivates the spurs. other than spurs fans, everyone thinks the spurs got lucky. its funny, because the spurs do not care. they just win the game that is in front of them. the spurs want everyone to talk about the suns and mavericks, so they can just fly under the radar, and then in the playoffs they get motivated by all the stupid nba fans out there who say they are no good because they are not exciting. who cares. the spurs win championships and if you ask any coach in the league, they will tell you that they are trying to model their franchise after the spurs.

ps: if you do not want to get suspended then do not leave the bench, no matter what. my ten year old brother knew that from the detroit indiana fight. as soon as stodemier left the bench and we all knew he was gonna be suspended for a game. get over it.

xphoenix87
Oct 23, 2007
2:36 PM
Peeler, the suspensions were correct by the letter of the law, but the rule is a stupid one that doesn't allow for any leeway. Were they wrong technically? Yeah, sure, but they were responding naturally to someone taking a cheap shot at their leader. The bottom line is that Horry took a cheap shot at Nash and the Suns were the ones who suffered for it.

J-DIZZLE
Oct 23, 2007
2:40 PM
Yes, SA is the favorite. And yes, Duncan is an MVP candidate. But..

The Lakers own the Spurs. Last year, Los Angeles basically dictated the season series and gave them all they could handle. Duncan struggled against Brown, Bynum, and Turiaf. Kobe neutralizes Manu. And Fisher, Farmar, and now Crittenton will rough up Parker to where he'd think twice about penetrating.

San Antonio decided to sign a former Laker in Horry because the Spurs only wish they were the Lakers. Horry was basically the one responsible for winning a key game against the Pistons in the Finals a couple years back. Without Horry there is no telling if they would have won that series.

Every team in the West is intimidated by San Antonio but the Spurs better watch out this year because teams like LA and Houston are breathing heavily down their backs.

There is a reason San Antonio can't ever repeat. This year won't be any different.

chitownsfinest
Oct 23, 2007
4:15 PM
I dont think there is much to be said about the Spurs that isnt general knowledge. Everybody knows that as long as Duncan, Ginobili and Parker are still around and surrounded by role players like Bowen, Finley and a few big European dudes, they will still be the team to beat. Nothing new here, just the same old slow, methodical style of basketball that so many fans hate but at the same time, cant help but respect.

chitownsfinest
Oct 23, 2007
4:18 PM
Dizzle, you continue to speak of the Lakers as legitimate contendors in the powerhouse that is the West. Give it a rest. For the second year in a row, the Lakers have done nothing to better their team and will once again be all about the Kobe show. They will end up with the sixth or seventh seed and lose in the first round. No way they are as good as either the Spurs, Mavericks, Rockets or Suns, one of which will be their first round opponent.

xphoenix87
Oct 23, 2007
5:06 PM
Dizzle - Last year the Spurs were 1-2 against the Lakers, losing by 7 and 4 and winning by 2. It's a pretty big stretch to call that getting owned. If you look back a bit further, San Antonio was 7-1 against the Lakers the two years before last. Lets be honest, LA is not in the same league as the Spurs. There's absolutely no reason to think that they'll be a championship contender this season.

edclinchsaint
Oct 23, 2007
10:12 PM
Good job as always.

I hope somebody, anybody knocks out the champs...

J-DIZZLE
Oct 24, 2007
1:02 PM
CHITOWN and XP: Against the rest of the NBA, the Lakers are not in the same league as San Antonio.

What I meant to say was that the Lakers have confidence playing against San Antonio.

The part when I said LA "owns" the Spurs was just my homerism.

I was watching my team get spanked by Utah last night live in Anaheim and I must say I did not appreciate the way KOBE was carrying himself.

I have gone to great lengths to support this guy through all the tough times but as the days go by I am slowly starting to come to the realization that his teammates don't want to play with him.

If this is true, then I say get rid of him. Get rid of Brian "No effort" Cook as well.

Like Jeannie Buss said on SportsCenter last night, no man is greater than any franchise.

The more KOBE acts this way, the more GM's around the league will see his incapabilities as a true leader. I am extremely disappointed right now, and I feel for the rest of the team.

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xphoenix87
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