Coach: Reggie Theus 2006-2007 Record: 33-49 06-07 Expected Record: 36-46 Offensive Rating: 106.1 (15th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 108.1 (22nd in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 49.1% (19th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 94.8 (4th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Mike Bibby had his worst season as a King last year. He took a lot more three-pointers than he ever has in his career, and his shooting percentages dropped off drastically. Now, there's a chance that he just had an off-year, but it might be that he's lost a step as he approaches 30 and wasn't getting by people as easily. Bibby has a good jumpshot, and I think he'd be a great addition to a team like Cleveland who desperately needs a guy who can hit open jumpers, but I don't think he's a viable option as a playmaker anymore.
Kevin Martin almost reminds me of a young Reggie Miller. He's a great shooter (though he does have kind of a funny release), he's got that stringy build, and he's one of the best players in the league at getting himself easy shots off of runouts, screens, and backcuts. A lot of times he's simply labeled as a jump shooter, but he does a great job at getting himself easy shots and getting to the line. He's the kind of guy I'd love to have on my team, the kind of guy who can score 30 points in the flow of the offense and you don't realize it until you see the box score.
Artest is an excellent defensive player, but an overrated offensive player. For a guy who spends a lot of time operating in the post, he shoots a fairly low percentage. He's a very good defensive player and an average offensive player, but you also have to deal with all his personal problems. You really never know what's going to happen with Artest, he can be going along saying all the right things, and then suddenly he does something to get himself suspended for 10 games. His maniac intensity is a big part of what makes him effective as a player, but it gets him in trouble every year to varying degrees.
Shareef has been slowly dropping off for a while, but he really fell off the face of the earth last year. He carried a lot lighter load last year and was terribly inefficient.
Miller is another player who really fell off last year. He's never been a very good defender and he doesn't rebound particularly well, but he always made up for it by being a good shooter and passer out of the high post. Last year, he didn't shoot well at all and he played a lot less minutes than he has in the past.
I'm not buying stock in Mikki Moore. He had a career season in a contract year while playing with Jason Kidd. It's like the perfect storm of circumstances for fluke production.
I don't know how much I buy into Garcia and Douby being the future for the Kings. I think Kings fans are expecting a lot from two guys who were drafted 19th and 23rd and haven't done much particularly noteworthy in the league yet. Both can develop to be solid bench contributors, but I don't see them being starters on a playoff team.
I like Hawes, though I don't think he was the right pick for them. He's very much like a young Brad Miller, but he's a better low post scorer. He's not a great rebounder, but he was the most polished post scorer in the draft. Whenever he comes back from knee surgery, expect him to take a lot of Miller's minutes.
Overview
The Kings brought back basically the same team last year that went to the playoffs the year before, but they felt the very pronounced effects of an aging core of players. Outside of Kevin Martin, all of their main contributors suffered huge dropoffs in productivity. The result of this was a mediocre offensive team and a really bad defensive team. Various trade rumors swirled around Bibby and Artest during the season and then again this offseason, but neither player was moved. Really, besides the continued improvement of Martin, there weren't a lot of positives last year for Kings fans.
Prediction
Things do not look good for the Kings. Their core of players is not aging gracefully, and while it's possible that one of those guys just had a fluke down season, for most of them it's just that they've lost a step and aren't going to be as effective. The problem for the Kings is that Bibby has two more years on his big deal, and Thomas, Miller, and Shareef all have 3 years left. Those big contracts are going to really handcuff this team's ability to build towards the future unless they can dump them, and that's going to be hard to do. Martin is a great young player, but other than that there isn't a whole lot to get excited about. Hawes might be an all-star down the road, but he's not going to be a superstar. Garcia and Douby are mediocre at best. If I'm in the Kings front office, I'm trying desperately to dump Bibby and Artest while they still have value and see if I can't pick up some young talent, cap relief and draft picks, and at the same time put myself on a fast track to the top of the lottery. Sorry Kings fans, but the next few years might be a bit rough.
Phoenix, we spoke before and I still think you are very wrong about the Kings. You closing comment is also uncalled for, almost all NBA teams next few years will be rough. You are writing nice blogs and deserve good credit for them, however your sense of judgement is about like a rookie entering a championship poker match. You are out of your league, Kings finish 7 or 8.
Alright, I'm okay with you disagreeing with me, I have no problem with people disagreeing with my opinion. However, if you're going to insult my "sense of judgment" and say I'm out of my league, then you best back it up.
Not that I typically care about expert predictions, but just to back up my point, ESPN's two preseason rankings, Yahoo's rankings, NBC's rankings, and CBS's rankings all have Sacramento near the bottom of the league.
There's a long list of very good reasons why they won't be successful this season. I'm fine if you don't agree, but don't insult my knowledge of the game if you can't back it up.
The closing comment is called for. There are only a few teams in the league that are as badly off for the near future as the Kings are. They have a bunch of bad contracts on aging players, and they don't really have that much young talent. They're going to have to take the next 2-3 years at least to rid themselves of their bad contracts and develop a core of young talent.
ALL I WANNA SAY IS THE KINGS DO HAVE SOLID PLAYERS TO RALLY AROUND.WE SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF WINNING AT LEAST 44-45 GAMES WITH SOLID CONTRIBUTION FROM ARTEST,BIBBY,GARCIA,SALMONS,MILLER, AND MARTIN. THEY ARE PROS FOR A REASON.AS FOR RAHIM,THOMAS THEY ARE A BUNCH OF OVER PAID CRY BABIES.IM A SAC FAN I DO KNOW EXPECTATIONS ARE NOT THAT HIGH RIGHT NOW, BUT UNDER NEW COACHING STAFF AND THEUS I THINK HE'LL GET THE BEST OUT OF THESE PLAYERS, UNLIKE MUSSLEMAN WHO NEVER PLAYED A PROFFESIONAL BASKETBALL GAME IN HIS LIFE. THEUS IS RESPECTED BY PLAYERS AND HE HOLDS PLAYERS ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR MISTAKES. HE SHOULD TURN THIS SHIP IN THE RIGHT WAY. GO KINGS !!!!!
Man... the year before last, when the Kings landed Artest, they played great. Then last year I expected the Kings compete for the division title (check my predictions for 2006-07). They stunk it up big-time.
Mike Bibby IS NOT a point guard. He is a 6-2 shooting guard who can no longer create his own shot. He needs screens and picks to be effective. His defensive is atrocious.
Shareef Abdur-Rahim is the cowardly lion. The guy has skills but zero heart. He's finished.
Artest has the fire and the skills but he played last year as if he was all about "getting his." Instead of letting the game come to him, he tried to play as if he were Allen Iverson. He's not. He's a great #2 or #3 scoring option - he's not a #1 scoring option.
Miller is solid but often injured. He doesn't get any help down on the blocks. He'd be far more effective as a PF playing along a good center, than what he is now, a C playing without a good PF.
Martin is great. But where's the beef? Who does the dirty work on this team? Who plays defense? Who controls the boards? They are so incredibly soft. SIGN DANNY FORTSON!
Kings have NO HEART.
Last edited by TrainOntheBall on October 22nd at 8:45 PM.
LOL. I like Danny Fortson, and if memory serves me right, he's still out there as a free agent.
He's an old-school hard-nosed player who is borderline dirty. You need a guy like that on your team.
If someone went to Fortson and said, "listen, we're going to play you 35 minutes per game, so you can't foul out in the first quarter, ok?" I GUARANTEE YOU Fortson would lead the league in rebounds. He is an absolute beast.
I remember watching a few Sonics games and I was impressed by how when he entered the game, he changed the whole game. Offensive rebounds. Lock-down defense. He draws fouls left and right, and is a decent free throw shooter. The guy knows his role.
I know he's a bit of a hothead, but he's not a bad guy and he brings it every night.
The Kings need someone like this... many teams need someone like this (except for the Pistons who already have their own version of Fortson in fellow Cincy alum, Jason Maxiell).
Bring back Charles Oakley! These players today are S-O-F-T.
Ahh, Phoenix and Dazzle, Suns and Laker fans speading their thimble of wisdom. Since when do the expected teams win it all? Firstly predictions are just that...predictions. Add your so called scientific formula about aging and dead weight contracts and you have BS stew. I call em as I see em and I say the Kings will surprise this year, especially if Hawes get healthy and contributes. Get your plates and microwave ready Daz and Phoenix.... Crow Minon will be served and it will be worth it to watch you eat it.
As I've said before, I'm not a Suns fan. the Phoenix in my screenname is referring to the mythical flaming bird, not the physical location. I don't have a team, I didn't watch the NBA as a kid, being more of a college basketball guy. I'm just making unbiased judgments on these teams based on what I've seen of them, their statistics, and what I've read experts say about them.
Again, I have no problem with you disagreeing with me. We had a good-natured little debate in the other thread and agreed to disagree. However, I'm not going to let you insult my knowledge of the game without saying something.
Please realize, I'm not taking a shot at your team (people always seem to think I have something against their team), I have nothing against the Kings. I'm just taking an objective look at their roster and telling it like it is.
There's J-Dizzle running his jibs again, go write a Laker blob, xphoenix87....I think alot of what you say makes since, we have at least two really bad contracts, Thomas and Rahim both very bad deals for Sac Town.
As far as being the worst in the league just remember we had terrible chemistry with that little punk Musselhead as our coach and keep this in mind Artest is going be a monster in a good way he is in a contract year>
As far as Bibby goes he had a bad year and I think will have a banner year, this team two years ago took the Spurs just about to the brink with the same team with Adelman as coach.
Kevin Martin is just getting a whole lot better just like the rest of the younger players, will Garcia and Douby be great players no but with new Coach Reggie they will get better chances.
The Biggest question mark will Brad Miller actually give us something for our money, he did come to camp with a chip on his shoulders lost 25 pounds and was embarrassed about his season.
Musselhead last year hurt our team in a lot of ways, number one being leadership...none he was a freakin coward, we do have a leader in Reggie and this team will surprise you....
Overall I think you did a good job writing this but I would think that you hate the Kings or just misinformed ..The Kings are not worst team in the West my friend, as far as you go J-Dizz have you heard any good rumors about Kobe bet you can't wait for him to be a King!!!
Last edited by vearlthepearl on October 24th at 7:13 PM.
vearl - Why am I supposed to think that Reggie Theus will be such a huge improvement over Musselman? Remember, Musselman was the runner-up in Coach Of The Year voting in 02-03. Everybody likes to get excited about their new coach, but college coaches don't have a very good track record in jumping to the NBA, why should I expect miracles from Theus?
Maybe Bibby just had a down year, but he's showing all the characteristic signs o####uard who has lost a step and is on the downhill side of his career.
I didn't forcast them as the worst team in the West, I have them as the 3rd worst team. Could they be better than the Sonics or the Blazers? Certainly. Will they be a playoff team? Not a chance.
As I said before, I'm not exactly going out on a limb here, most other expert predictions rank the Kings similarly. Maybe I'm not the one who's misinformed.
Well I think Bibby being the ripe old age of 29 certainly looks like he's on the downhill slide here, like I said I agreed with a couple of your takes but its hard when ya try to write about so many teams... I respect your opinion but I think your wrong or misinformed sorry if you want to take that as a slight on your writing which I already stated was good but just because ESPN said they would be bad doesn't mean #### to me...but can ya tell I love my team or what peace brother!
Last edited by vearlthepearl on October 24th at 8:09 PM.
Phoenix, if you are an unbiased fan then I apologize for linking you to the Suns. I just have a problem with your use of the word "experts" Most years there are surprises and those surprises are because "experts" use last year as a basis for their comments. How does anyone know what new players will add or subtract from a team? I see most "experts" are using an aging team and last years results as a basis for their predictions.
They laugh at the notion that only adding Mikey Moore and Spencer Hawes can help the team. Well both guys are bigs which we were very short position wise last year. I can tell you from pre- season the Kings are in better shape, are playing better defense and like and respect their new coach. We have some good players and if the chemistry is right we will surprise.....I am telling you. Reggie Nation may be reborn in Sacramento.
As for Diz......LOL poor guy in Laker Land is choking on the ash from the fires and has got his compass screwed up. By the way my prayers go out to the victims of that horrible series of fires in So Cal.
Vearl... it sounds much more like you're a Kings fan trying to be hopeful about your team, than it does XPhoenix being personally critical of your team due to a bias.
The Kings ARE NOT a good team. That's the truth. I pegged them to win 50+ games last season. I bought into the hype that came with Artest's arrival. I didn't think at the time that solid players like Kenny Thomas and Abdur-Rahim were completely FINISHED.
Artest will be traded at some point this season, as might be Bibby. It's time to rebuild, man. That's the truth.
Vearl - Bibby is entering his 10th season, and short guards typically decline much earlier than any other position. He took way more jumpshots, took less free throws, and shot a much lower percentage, those are typically signs of an aging guard who has lost a step.
fun - Hawes had arthroscopic surgery on his knee, so who knows when he'll be returning, and to expect much from him this year is being beyond optimistic. Moore had a HUGE fluke year, and even then he only averaged 10-5. Even if, by some wild stretch of the imagination, he duplicates his performance from last year, are you telling me that a 10 and 5 guy is going to be a huge difference maker?
Sure, the Kings like their new coach right now, but what happens when they lose 5 games in a row and Artest gets suspended for doing something stupid? Are they going to like him as much then? You have to realize, EVERYONE is happy and positive in the preseason. For the most part, preseason means nothing.
both of you - As I said above, I don't particularly care about expert rankings. However, you said I was out of my league, had a "sense of judgment...like a rookie entering a championship poker match", and that I either "hate the Kings or are misguided". I brought up the expert rankings simply to defend myself.
Train.....Artest might or might not be traded, same with Bibby.... being hopeful, thats always been the case in Sac Town brother but Thomas and Rahim might not get off the bench if they don't produce. As far as you pegging them to win 50 games they might of if the team didn't quit on Mussleman, he's a loser and when he got that DUI he lost all respect from everyone but oh well who cares and maybe it is time to rebuild and maybe they are we just haven't heard about it yet....maybe the Maloofs will pull some kinda crazy rabbit outta their ####...take care bro!
XPhoenix said: "Moore had a HUGE fluke year, and even then he only averaged 10-5."
It's not a fluke, man. It's called Jason Kidd. The guy who got Jimmy Jackson, Todd MacCulloch, Kenyon Martin all paid. He'll take a school yard kid and make him a viable weapon.
All you have to be able to do is run with him, catch the ball and lay it in. He turns regular guys into all-stars.
That's what a real star does. That's what Magic did, Stockton did, and Kidd does.
And what guys like KG don't do.
Last edited by TrainOntheBall on October 24th at 10:44 PM.
I'm not going to bring the KG argument into this thread.
I am quite aware of the "Kidd Effect" on mediocre players. Moore's year was a "fluke year" in that he has a snowball's chance in hell of repeating it. As I said above, he had a career season while in a contract year with Jason Kidd passing him the ball. No way that performance is repeated.
Phoenix, what I am saying is the Kings had 0 defensive presence or scoring from the center position the last two years. We should get more out of Moore and Hawes. Combine that with Martin, Garcia and Douby continuing to develop, add in better years from Bibby and Miller and Artest and you can see a large improvement over last year.
But as I said earlier, when it comes to expert predictions....they are almost always wrong. Would it shock you to see the Spurs drop to a 6th or 7th seed? I could happen very easily.
fun - You're expecting WAY too much out of Hawes and Moore. As I've mentioned, you'll be lucky to get half the production out of Moore that he had last year, and if you got even average production out of Hawes, it would be much more than is expected from him.
"Would it shock you to see the Spurs drop to a 6th or 7th seed? I could happen very easily."
How do you possibly justify that statement? You're just coming off as an #### now. Take a guess at how many times Tim Duncan has ever had a team finish lower than 4th in the West? If you didn't guess 0, you're wrong.
ONEFOFUN: "By the way my prayers go out to the victims of that horrible series of fires in So Cal. "
You can clown on me all you want and I don't mind. But thank you for the prayers because I am one of those people who has family and friends in San Diego and Orange Counties that had to evacuate.
On another note, the Kings are still worse than the Lakers and frankly that's all I really care about.
VEARLTHEPEARL: If Kobe miraculously goes to Sactown, I'm happy for you and I'd probably pay more attention to the Kings cuz at least he'd still be playing ball in California. But I'm still a Laker for life.
Last edited by J-DIZZLE on October 25th at 3:18 PM.
Phoenix, what do you mean how can I justify the Spurs dropping to 6th or 7th? I said it could happen easily and it can. One injury to Duncan or Parker can derail the train. An off year can also happen...the Spurs have won quite a bit the last few years and odds are they will decline as a team.
onefofun...great point about injurys, #### they might not even make the playoffs, alls good though....J-Dizz ya know I love ya bro and I feel your pain, hope all is well!
fun - You have any reason to think that one of the most durable and consistent superstars of the last decade and a guy who has missed 20 games over 6 seasons would develop injury problems? If not, than it isn't "it could easily happen", it would be a fluke injury. Why does the fact that the Spurs have won a lot recently mean that the odds are they will decline? On the contrary, they're an elite team, Duncan is still in his prime, Parker and Ginobili are getting better, and they brought everyone back. If anything, you'd expect them to improve.
You can't make predictions based on low probability events, it's stupid.
Phoenix, you are letting your ego get in the way of good thought process. I am not going to spend any more time after this post debating what method works better for PREDICTING the seasons outcome. To call my low probability thoughts stupid shows me how narrow minded you are. I dont care if Duncan isnt prone to injury...it can happen and will happen...the odds say so.
As far as using so called logic to pick the final NBA pecking order is a fools game. This is the NBA we are dealing with and anything can happen, if you havent figured that out yet then you soon will. Take your predictions, print them and look me up next May. Then we will talk about prediction methods, egos and such..... and we will ask you how the crow tastes.
I am done with this blog until next May when the rubber meets the road and your predictions dont win,place or show because you think utilizing odds isnt a way to predict season outcomes.
Alright, I've tried to be civil. I've tried to be nice. I've tried to walk you through the logic, but no more, I can't hold it back any longer.
You Sir, are an ####. Of course my picks aren't going to be perfect, to even start to believe that is moronic. There are too many unpredictable events that could happen. However, you still have to rank the teams in the order you would expect them to finish without fluke events, because fluke events are just that, flukes. They could happen to the last place team just as easily as to the first place team. Why should I think that Duncan will fall to a season-ending injury instead of Dirk or Nash or Kobe or, to bring it closer to home for you, Kevin Martin? I'm not talking about factoring in injury prone players here, I'm talking about completely unpredictable events. Your "low probability thoughts" are stupid not because a superstar won't get injured this year, they're stupid because it's impossible to predict who it will be. If you want to predict on low probability events, then why not predict that everyone else in the West will suffer devastating injuries and the Clippers will reach the Finals? You can't base predictions on the unpredictable, it just doesn't work.
Last edited by xphoenix87 on October 26th at 7:03 AM.
"I dont care if Duncan isnt prone to injury...it can happen and will happen...the odds say so."
NO, the odds DON'T say so, that's the whole point. Duncan isn't injury prone, he's still in his prime, he doesn't have an injury entering the season, he didn't play international ball over the summer. Absolutely NOTHING indicates that Duncan will suffer a significant, season-ending injury. The odds say that SOME superstars will inevitably go down with injury, but that doesn't say anything about one particular star. Unless you have a crystal ball telling you Duncan is going down with an injury, it makes no sense to predict it.
"Take your predictions, print them and look me up next May. Then we will talk about prediction methods, egos and such..... and we will ask you how the crow tastes."
You know, since your predictions so far are:
1) The Kings will finish 7th or 8th in the West
2) Duncan will have an injury that forces him to miss significant time
3) The Spurs will end up 6th or 7th in the West
I feel pretty confident. I certainly won't get everything right, but anything is better than 0%.
How bout this, come back and talk to me once you've grown some common sense.
ges dropped off drastically. Now, there's a chance that he just had an off-year, but it might be that he's lost a step as he approaches 30 and wasn't getting by people as easily. Bibby has a good jumpshot, and I think he'd be a great addition to a team like Cleveland who desperately needs a guy who can hit open jumpers, but I don't think he's a viable option as a playmaker anymore.
mself easy shots and getting to the line. He's the kind of guy I'd love to have on my team, the kind of guy who can score 30 points in the flow of the offense and you don't realize it until you see the box score.
om two guys who were drafted 19th and 23rd and haven't done much particularly noteworthy in the league yet. Both can develop to be solid bench contributors, but I don't see them being starters on a playoff team. 
