Coach: Nate McMillan 2006-2007 Record: 32-50 06-07 Expected Record: 30-52 Offensive Rating: 104.7 (22nd in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 110.2 (26th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 48.3% (23rd in NBA) Possessions per 48: 88.3 (29th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Everything about Aldridge screams "BREAKOUT YEAR". I thought it would take him a bit longer to adjust to the NBA game, but he had a very solid rookie year, and he's looked great in the offseason. He's an excellent offensive rebounder and shotblocker. He's probably the front-runner for MIP heading into the season.
Brandon Roy is gonna be a heck of a player. I don't know if he's going to be an all-NBA superstar, but he's gonna be an all-star. He can score from anywhere, he's quick, and he has a great crossover that he can use in traffic. He'll be good for 18-22 points per game for years.
The point guard situation is going to be interesting. I still don't really know why they brought in Steve Blake this offseason with 3 other legitimate options already there. They certainly don't lack for floor generals, Blake and Rodriguez both ranked in the top 5 in the league in assist ratio last year. Jack is a strong finisher and a good defensive player and probably the most complete and balanced option they have. To add to all that, they've got Green, who was a tremendously underrated part of the two-time national champs and has reportedly really impressed Nate McMillan.
Channing Frye went from being untouchable last year to being quite touchable. I'm not going to make too much of a judgment based on his performance on a completely disfunctional Knicks team. He's a mid-range jump shooter, and shoot be a good compliment to Aldridge and his offensive rebounding skills.
I really liked the pick of McRoberts in the second round. He's a tremendous talent who just wasn't cut out to be the primary offensive option on a team. He has excellent court vision and he's a very good defensive player. I think he'll end up being a very good complimentary player.
X-Factor: Martell Webster - In his third season, it's time for Webster to start fulfilling some of the promise that made the Blazers draft him with the number six pick. He's very athletic and has great range on his shot, but he takes too many bad shots and as a result he shoots a low percentage and doesn't get to the line much. If he's going to compete for a big role in the Blazers' promising future, he's got to break out this year and be a consistent offensive threat.
Overview
In the past few years, the Blazers have undergone a pretty startling turnaround. Through a couple of extremely active years in the front office, they've transformed from the "Jailblazers" into the league's most promising young team. This offseason, they got rid of a headcase with a huge contract in Zach Randolph, and they had an amazing draft. In addition to adding Oden, McRoberts and Green, they also got the rights to huge talents Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Koponen who they will develop overseas. The injury to Greg Oden is obviously not what they wanted, but as long as he returns without long-lasting effect, Portland will be in great shape for the future.
Prediction
With Oden coming in and making an immediate defensive impact, they Blazers had an outside shot at the playoffs. Without him, they'll have to wait one more season to start what should be a long run of success. Even so, I think the Blazers will be decent this year as long as Brandon Roy's preseason injury doesn't affect him too much. They've got a very deep team, and Roy, Aldridge and a solid group of point guards should be enough to win a decent handful of games. The real excitement for the Blazers though is the next few years. Nobody in the league has nearly the incredible depth of young talent that the Blazers do. If Oden returns 100%, there's no reason to think that they won't be the dominating force in the NBA for the next decade.
Great post. I just bought an X-Factor (Martell Webster) jersey online for 20 bucks they other day. I think he's poised for a good year, as are Roy and Aldridge. You're spot on with the analysis. I couldn't agree more.
I still think the Blazers should have selected Durant to play the 3. Oden is a project. They already have a bunch of project quality big men. Why add another, when what they need is a scorer?
This team has some talent, but it's really raw.
And the cancerous Darius Miles is still on board, no?
I still like the Oden pick. You don't take a pass on the best big man to come along since Duncan, you just can't do it. Oden is an amazing defender, and most people tend to forget that he played basically the entire season in college without his right hand and still dominated people. I'm convinced he's going to be very, very good when he gets back from injury.
From what I read, they're hoping that Miles just realizes his knees are too bad to play and retires (like Allan Houston did for the Knicks) so that his salary will come off the books. I wouldn't be surprised if the ended up buying him out.
What young quality big men do you speak of TrainOntheBall? the only big man they have is Joel Pryzbilla and he's not much...Josh McRoberts should make a good showing with all the playing time he'll get this season with Oden out. Pritchard made the right decision with the Oden pick, and everyone knows it, just like he was a wizard with the draft the year before when he drafted Randy Foye and traded him for Brandon Roy, and then managed to get LaMarcus Aldridge from the Bulls. Aldridge this preseason has averaged 21.8 pts and 8.0 rbs in 29 minutes a game...that averages out to 36 pts and 13 rbs per 48...those are pretty damn good numbers at a very cheap price considering that those are better numbers than Zach Randolph has ever put up as a blazer...probably a more realistic expectation would be in the 26-30pts 10-14 rbs a game from Aldridge...Roy will be...well...he'll be Brandon Roy, probably the most under rated superstar in the league...
ker. He's probably the front-runner for MIP heading into the season. 
they also got the rights to huge talents Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Koponen who they will develop overseas. The injury to Greg Oden is obviously not what they wanted, but as long as he returns without long-lasting effect, Portland will be in great shape for the future.
