Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Memphis Grizzlies

Coach: Marc Iavaroni
2006-2007 Record: 22-60
06-07 Expected Record: 26-56
Offensive Rating: 106.8 (12th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 112.4 (30th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 50.4% (9th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 93.6 (7th in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Gasol is an underrated player in my opinion. He's not a world beater, but he's a solid 20-10 guy who shoots a good percentage, is a solid rebounder, passes very well for a big man, and blocks shots without fouling. There are precious few big men in the league that you can say all that about.

Mike Miller may not play a lot of defense, but man can he shoot. He won't get you a lot in other categories, but the guy can fill it up in a hurry.

Warrick and #### are both highly athletic wings who have wiry frames and the ability to explode to the rim. Warrick started and ended last season extremely well, but had a lot of inconsistent outings. He's an effective scorer, but needs to become a better rebounder and cut down on his turnovers. #### had a bit of a rough rookie year, but he got a lot of burn and that experience should help him. He scored in double figures in 25 of 28 games at the end of last year. He also had some very good defensive games, and has the kind of length, athleticism, and skills that could make him an excellent defender. Both these guys are young and inconsistent, but they've got a ton of talent.

I loved the Navarro signing. He's one of the premier European players, and he's an outstanding shooter. With he and Miller on the floor, it becomes almost impossible to send someone down to double on Pau. In addition, he's a friend of Pau's from playing together on the Spanish national team, and should work well with the Griz's top player.

The point guard situation is going to be interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if the veteran Stoudamire starts games early in the season, but I would be shocked if Lowry or Conley isn't the starter by season's end. Lowry didn't play a lot of games last year, but he played very well in the games he did play, and he played well this summer. He's a very good defensive player and is a really gritty performer. Conley is the point guard of the future, and even though young point guards don't have a great track record, Conley is the kind of special talent that could prove the exception to the rule. He's an absolutely freakish athlete, who is extremely strong for his size and has a blindingly quick first step. His ability to finish around the rim reminds me of Tony Parker, he can hit the floater and he's great at finishing through contact and avoiding the block. He's also an exceptional ballhandler and has a great passing eye. A lot of the time when I watched him last year, I was reminded of Steve Nash in the way that Conley, like Nash, would get past his man and then slow up and let passing lanes develop. If he develops a jumpshot, watch out.

X-Factor: Darko Milicic - Anyone who tells you they know what's coming with Darko is lying. His talent is undeniable, but he's not a real strong rebounder and he's inconsistent on the offensive end. On the other end though, Darko's best attribute is his shotblocking, where he is one of the best rim protectors in the league. This season really is a make or break one for Darko if he's ever going to realize his talent. He's entering his 5th season at 22, and he's on a young team running a high-paced, international style offense. If he can't succeed here, I'm giving up on him. If nothing else though, he's a serviceable big man simply for his ability to block shots.

Overview

The Grizzlies' season was basically ended last year when Pau missed the first 22 games of the year, and Memphis plummeted to 5-17. For the rest of the season you basically got the impression that they had phoned it in and were tanking their way to pole position in the race for Oden. They replaced Mike Fratello with interim coach Tony Barone and immediately ramped up their pace. The team was actually pretty good offensively, 12th in the league in offensive efficiency, but they were absolutely terrible on defense. That is kind of surprising because they were a very good defensive team in 05-06 and only really lost Shane Battier, Eddie Jones, and Lorenzen Wright. Now, losing Battier definitely hurts, and Jones and Wright are both decent defenders, but you definitely wouldn't think that those losses would take a team from 2nd to last in defense. I think that a lot of the change had to do with the injury to Gasol, the losing attitude, and the change in coaching philosophy.

Prediction

I really like the Grizzlies this year, I've liked them all summer as I've watched the moves they made. Their mix of rangy, athletic players, quick guards, and long-range shooters is perfect for their transition-style offense. The additions of Conley, Milicic, and Navarro along with the development of the young players and the addition of Iavoroni at coach should improve on what was already a good offense. Defensively, the shotblocking of Milicic and a full season of a competent coach should improve the defense to being solid. Gasol and Milicic are above average defenders, #### has the potential to be a great defender, and Conley and Lowry are both good defenders. The problem for the Griz will be that Swift, Warrick, ####, and Gasol are all thinner, wiry players who don't have a lot of bulk to work with in the post. As a result, they're not a very good rebounding team, and they're vulnerable to pounding the ball into the low post. I would expect to see a lot of zone play from the team this year as it suits the type of athletes they have. There's a lot to like about this team, and I think they make a huge jump back to playoff consideration this year.

7th in the West - Dark Horse