Coach: Mike Dunleavy 2006-2007 Record: 40-42 06-07 Expected Record: 40-42 Offensive Rating: 105.2 (19th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 105.5 (9th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 48.1% (24th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 90.8 (19th in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
Cassell can still pass the ball and manage a team well, but he's not the offensive threat that he once was. His shooting percentages dropped precipitously last year, and at 38, I think we're seeing the end of the line for Sam I Am.
Well, the strength of this team is obviously on the wings, where Thomas, Thornton, Mobley, Maggette, Ross, and Patterson make for a deep and talented bunch. The problem for the Clips will be trying to find minutes for them all.
Thomas will probably spend most of his time at the power forward spot, and that's not really a good thing if you're a Clippers fan. Despite his enormous talent, Thomas has huge effort problems, and he doesn't rebound well or make a difference on the defensive end.
I wouldn't be surprised if Thornton got some burn at the 4 spot too (ala Shawn Marion). He's got great hops, long arms, and he's strong enough to defend the post. With so many other wing players on the squad, Thornton's best shot for PT might be at the PF spot.
Maggette is the team's best player, so you know he'll be getting a large chunk of the SG/SF minutes. Looking at the numbers, I was surprised by how good Maggette was last year. He doesn't shoot a particularly high percentage, he's not a great passer or a particularly great rebounder, but what sets him apart is that he gets to the free throw line A LOT and makes most of them (he was 3rd in the league in FTM).
Mobley is a good shooter from anywhere on the floor, but unfortunately, that's about all he does. At this point in his career, he doesn't add much other than long range shooting.
Now, being an N.C. State fan, I remember watching Josh Powell in college and thinking that he was really going to be a player, but he left after his sophomore year and took the long way to the league. I still think he has the potential to be a decent player since he's a very good athlete and rebounds well, but to count on him to be a major factor is a stretch. If you get decent play from him, that's a bonus.
X-Factor:Chris "The Caveman" Kaman - Seriously, every time I see a picture of Kaman I can't help but think that he should be doing Geico commercials. As far as his actual basketball playing goes, Kaman had a decent year 2 years ago, and really dropped off last year. Kaman has the talent to be a force in the post, he's a legit 7-footer who can score with either hand, and he's a pretty good rebounder. With Elton Brand out for the season, Kaman will get the chance to be the team's number one post option. How he handles the increased load will be a big part of determining if something positive will come of this season, or if it will just be a lost year.
Overview
After a very successful 05-06 season where they pushed the Suns to the limit in the conference semifinals, last season was a disappointing one for the Clippers. They lost point-guard-of-the-future Shaun Livingston to a horrific knee injury, and didn't play up to their talent. They were a good defensive squad, but their offense was terrible, with the only saving grace being that they took a ton of free throws. Even then, things didn't look too bad for the Clips coming into this year, and a more motivated squad plus the addition of Thornton looked like a promising playoffs squad. Then, Brand went down for the season, and all playoff hopes were lost. Brand wasn't as good last year as he was in 05-06, but he was still one of the top players in the league and the undeniable heart of the team.
Prediction
As I said in my Western Conference overview, few players in the game mean more to their team than Brand does to the Clippers. Without Brand, Kaman is their only decent rebounder or post scorer, and he's been inconsistent at best over his short career. Without Brand, the Clips will have to lean on the play of their forwards, and while they do have a deep and talented group of wing players, none of them are real elite, game-changing players. In the tough Western conference, the Brandless Clippers have little to no hope of finishing in the top 8. What Clippers fans can look forward to though is the development of Kaman and seeing the dynamic Thornton, who will make plenty of highlight reels, and looks for all the world like a young Matrix.
40 wins for the Clips? I think you're stretching here. I know the West will be weaker this year, but still, Brand is going to miss at least 30 games... and that's if all goes well.
Is Cassell going to stay healthy? Is Maggette going to stay healthy?
If I had to bet, I'd say this team is lottery-bound. For them to win 40 games, EVERYTHING must go right. That's unlikely. I see them winning 32, tops.
Train - That's the expected win total from last year. It uses points scored and points allowed, as well as the variation in PPG and DPPG to estimate how many games a team with those statistics would be expected to win. A team that performs much differently than their expected record will very likely have their record correct towards the expected result the next season (barring major roster change of course). It's explained in the statistics post I made that is linked to at the top of this post.
Phoenix... you might be in the phase I was in two years ago. The stats are cool, and I love them, and discovering all of the interesting geeky stats is pretty fun and exciting at the beginning. I'm sure you know all about win shares, etc.
But in my experience -- and I obviously think I'm right in my assessment -- the stats can only take you so far. They don't measure certain intangibles. They don't always record what you see with your eyes, etc.
For example, Jamal Crawford, on paper, is ten times worse than he is in real life. His numbers say he can't shoot worth a lick, but the truth is he's a helluva lot better shooter than, say, Bruce Bowen, who of course has a higher FG percentage. My point is you shouldn't rely SOLELY on the numbers.
I could be wrong about the Clips. But so could your statistical analysis. We can only wait and see. I see them winning 32 games, at most. With Brand out, I see them as one of the worst teams in the league. We'll see. I enjoy your posts, and I mean no disrespect. I will argue with you in the future. Cheers.
you're completely misreading what I'm saying with expected win%. The number is not the prediction of how many games the Clippers will win next year. What the number tells us is whether or not the Clippers won as many games as their points scored and points allowed would indicate. Basically, it tells us if they got lucky or not. Teams that won a significant amount of games more than their expected win% are teams that won a disproportionate amount of close games. Expected Winning Percentage is a much better predictor of future success than actual win loss records. For example, Dallas outperformed their expected record by 9 wins, indicating that they were very lucky to achieve those 67 wins. The Spurs and Suns actually had higher expected winning percentages. For a team like the Clippers, it doesn't really matter because the loss of Brand throws everything down the drain. In my overview post, I have them as the worst team in the west. That does bring up a good point though, I'll make sure I list where I have the team overall in the individual posts.
As for statistics, I definitely agree that there are a lot of things that statistics can't accurately measure. However, statistics are getting better and better, and you can get a very accurate picture of a player's offensive role and his production using possession-based statistics, percentages, and usage rate. Using your example, Crawford actually has a similar FG% to Bowen, and he has a much higher usage rate (estimated number of possessions used per 40 minutes. Not my favorite way to measure usage, but it works alright and is easily available on Basketball-Reference.com). Higher usage rates always lead to lower offensive efficiency, which usually means lower shooting percentages. So, while just looking at shooting percentages might say that Bowen is a better shooter, if you look at the statistics as a whole, it tells a different story.
Thank you for clearing that up for me. I thought, using some tool, you were saying the Clips were going to win 40 games. Now I understand.
I'm going to put a preview together myself -- albeit much less in-depth than yours; the main point is to predict how teams will finish, etc. I'd like to get your take on how teams will finish this year. Would be a nice addition to your posts... also an excellent way to stir up trouble (and by "trouble," I mean drawing all of the Lakers and Suns fans out of the woodwork to fight you on your prognostications.)
Phoenix: Yeah, the Lakers really aren't that good.
LakersFan: Phoenix, I don't buy that BS about your name representing the bird. You're a Nash lover. And all Nash lovers love to hate the Lakers. The Lakers are the best... and you are an ####.
Phoenix: No, you're the #### if you still waiting for Kwame Brown to do something.
LakersFan: K-O-B-E... that's all we need.
Phoenix: Sure you do.
LakersFan: Your mother!!!
pite his enormous talent, Thomas has huge effort problems, and he doesn't rebound well or make a difference on the defensive end.
, things didn't look too bad for the Clips coming into this year, and a more motivated squad plus the addition of Thornton looked like a promising playoffs squad. Then, Brand went down for the season, and all playoff hopes were lost. Brand wasn't as good last year as he was in 05-06, but he was still one of the top players in the league and the undeniable heart of the team. 
