Stats Explanation, Western Conference Overview

Golden State Warriors

Coach: Don Nelson
2006-2007 Record: 42-40
06-07 Expected Record: 40.5-41.5
Offensive Rating: 107.0 (11th in NBA, league average 106.5)
Defensive Rating: 107.4 (19th in NBA, league average 106.5)
eFG%: 50.1% (12th in NBA)
Possessions per 48: 99.1 (1st in NBA)

Roster
(You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)

Baron Davis is one of the scariest players in the entire league to play against because he can put a team on his back and single-handedly win games like he did against Dallas. He's so quick and so strong that you can't keep him out of the lane, he rebounds as well as any point guard in the league, and he can be a great defender when he puts his mind to it. Not only that, but he can also do this. On the other hand, Davis will also drive you crazy if he's on your team. He's injury prone, and he also falls in love with his jump shot and shoots you out of games. With his talent, Baron should've been a hall of famer, but injuries and complacency have gotten in the way. He's still incredibly scary to face in a playoff series, but not a tremendously reliable guy over the course of the regular season.

Both Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington played better after the trade brought them to Golden State, but neither were all that great. They were both pretty average offensively, shooting poor percentages and mostly scoring a lot of points because of the pace the Warriors play at.

I was surprised at how effective Andris Biedrins was last year. I didn't realize just how good he had been, but he was an extremely effective scorer and defended the rim well. Sure, he can't make anything outside of 5 feet, but he's a developing young big who takes the shots that are given to him and rebounds well. I know the Warriors love their smallball run and gun lineup, but the development of Biedrins will be crucial if they want to make the playoffs.

I don't know if he has much left in the tank, but I've always liked Austin Croshere. He's a good complementary guy who rebounds well and works hard.

The rookies will be a huge factor in determining how well Golden State does this year. Marco Bellnelli will fit right in here, though I don't know how effective he'll be. He's got no conscience, he'll shoot any shot, any time. He doesn't add much new to the lineup, since he's another streaky high-volume scorer who doesn't play a lot of defense. Brandan Wright is more interesting, because he's a huge talent who runs the floor as well as any big man out there. If nothing else, I think he's at worst a more athletic version of Biedrins (shoots high percentage close to the basket, blocks shots). Watch his development, because if he and Biedrins can come out and contribute regularly, the Warriors become a much better defensive team. Lastly, who knows if he'll get much burn, but Stephane Lasme is a special defensive talent. I really liked this guy in college, and though he's really undersized, he has natural shot blocking timing and has unbelievable vertical burst.

X-Factor: Monta Ellis - Ellis won the NBA Most Improved Player award mostly because of his gaudy PPG average, but he was really an average player who was an inefficient scorer. He finishes extremely well, but he has to improve his jumpshot if he wants to jump to another level. Ellis is a 3rd year guy who still has a lot of promise to improve on. If he can become a more efficient and consistent player, Golden State will be much more likely to end up in the playoffs.

Overview

Honestly, the Warriors were lucky to make the playoffs last year. They actually were outscored last year, and the only way they made the playoffs was with a torrid April in which they went 8-1. They were a slightly above-average offensive team and a poor defensive team. They were also one of the league's most inconsistent teams, which is to be expected from the streaky nature of many of their players. Other than that strong end to the season, the Warriors were a below .500 team both before and after their trade that brought Jackson and Harrington over. The only player on the team that shot over 50% was Andris Biedrins, who shot 60%. So, what's the good news for the Warriors? They have a lot of young talent that should improve this year (Ellis, Biedrins, Barnes), some promising rookies, and when they're on they're an incredibly difficult opponent.

Prediction

It's a bit difficult to predict the Warriors because they have so many volatile elements. How well will the Jason Richardson replacements do? (pretty well) What are the odds that Stephen Jackson gets suspended for a significant period of time? (off the charts) How many games can Baron Davis stay healthy for? (around 60) They could finish as high as 6th or as low as 10th and I wouldn't really be surprised. Personally, I'm not sold on them as a playoff team. They're really not a great regular season team and a lot of the thinking about them is influenced by their strong postseason run. I certainly wouldn't want to play them in the playoffs where they can get hot and Davis can carry them to a few wins.

10th in the West - Other Playoff Potentials