Continuing my individual team analysis, it's time to look at the Denver Nuggets. Again, for more information on the stats I use, check this post, and for the western conference overview, look here.
Denver Nuggets
Coach: George Karl 2006-2007 Record: 45-37 06-07 Expected Record: 45-37 Offensive Rating: 107.8 (8th in NBA, league average 106.5) Defensive Rating: 105.6 (11th in NBA, league average 106.5) eFG%: 50.1% (12th in NBA) Possessions per 48: 97.4 (2nd in NBA)
Roster (You'll have to scroll to see it all. Red indicates new player, blue indicates rookie)
A lot of people forget that if the season had ended the game before Melo went and got himself suspended, he would've been the MVP. He had an incredibly hot start to the season, scoring under 25 only 3 times in those first 22 games and shooting right around 50% from the field. He was almost as good when he came back, except for a bad March which was, coincidentally, the first real long stretch of time he and Iverson hit the court together. Both players played better after that month, and it led to a 10-1 April to close the regular season.
I didn't particularly like the Chucky Atkins signing because I they really needed a true point (like keeping Steve Blake). However, Atkins does give them something they sorely need, and that is perimeter shooting. J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza were the only decent long-range shooters on the squad last year.
Nene had best be working hard in training camp, because he looked absolutely terrible in the Tournament of the Americas. He was clearly out of shape and overweight, and he didn't make any impact at all, even missing open dunks in transition. He's capable of big things, but he's got to work at it.
If, and I realize this is a huge if, Kenyon Martin comes back at anywhere near his old self, this frountcourt is nasty. Martin scores well in transition, hits the offensive glass, and is a good defender. Guys who can get things done without having plays run for them are essential on a team with Melo and AI.
With that in mind, I don't care how cramped the frontcourt minutes are, Eduardo Najera needs to be on the floor a lot. I've liked him since he was in Dallas, he's one of the best energy guys in the league. He hustles his butt off, and he rebounds pretty well, especially on the offensive end.
Marcus Camby is the most important player on this team. If he's healthy, they have an elite defensive center who isn't half bad on the other end either. Without him, they have a gaping hole in the middle.
Von Wafer may not get a whole lot of burn this season, but you might want to keep an eye on him. He lit up the summer league, and he's a great perimeter shooter. He was a terrific talent at FSU who left too early, but he might be coming into his own now.
X-Factor:J.R. Smith - No player spent more time in George Karl's doghouse than Smith last year, but the Nuggets desperately need him to have his head on straight this year. When he's on, he provides a great scorer off the bench and a badly needed perimeter shooter. When he's off, he can shoot you out of ballgames and make costly mistakes with his complacency. He has all the tools to be a very good player, but he's got to put it together mentally and do what it takes to help the team win.
Overview
Everyone knew that the Nuggets could score last year, but they had a surprisingly good defense too, anchored in the middle by Camby. What is interesting about the Nuggets defense is that they didn't rebound very well on the defensive end, didn't force a ton of turnovers, and allowed a fairly high shooting percentage, but came out all right in the end. The reason? The Nuggets very rarly fouled opposing shooters and so they didn't give up free points. Only one team in the league gave up less free throws per shot attempt than the Nuggets did. Still, you'd like to pin your championship hopes on something a little more solid than that, so if Carmelo and the gang want to contend, they'll need to shore up their defense, especially on the glass where they were 21st in rebound rate (kind of surprising for a team who rebounded on the offensive glass as well as they did). It doesn't help that they traded away rebound machine Reggie Evans to the Sixers, but it should improve if K-Mart comes back strong. Offensively, this team was the second fastest team in the league and pretty efficient at it, but I wouldn't be surprised if they ran even more this year. After watching Carmelo thrive in Team USA's up-tempo system and given the strong depth of the team, it wouldn't surprise me if Karl had them play even faster this year.
Prediction
They might have the deepest collection of talent in the entire league. There are guys who can play at every position, and their frontcourt depth is incredible. However, the Nuggets are also one of the hardest teams to predict. How will they come together chemistry-wise after an entire summer to integrate all the parts together? Can Marcus Camby stay healthy? How will Kenyon Martin come back from injury? Will Nene get in shape? Will George Karl admit that he and John Lithgow are long lost twins? Can any of his teammates actually spell Yakhouba Diawara's name correctly? Clearly, Denver has a lot of questions to answer coming into this year. What we do know is that they have a bona-fide upper-echelon star (Melo), an all-time great looking for a ring (The Answer), a great defensive center (Camby), and a bunch of very strong complementary players. To me, that means if they can put it all together, they've got a great shot at a title.
George Karl is a good coach but I never see Denver playing to their full potential with the roster they have. Injuries and egos dominate this team's chemistry. Camby is good when healthy. You know that AI doesn't want to play second fiddle to Carmelo and vice versa.
I really think AI has the heart to let 'Melo be the man. He wants a ring really bad. I think he's matured as a person (hopefully). Lithgow has got to coach his best yet to get this team ready. There is only about a two year window before this ship gets too leaky to keep afloat.
Last edited by pro_lynx on October 8th at 10:32 AM.
PF - I don't think the issue is going to be AI's willingness to play second fiddle. Iverson has been one of the game's greatest competitors for his whole career, and he desperately wants a ring. The bigger issue will be if he can adjust his game to become a more efficient player when he isn't getting as many touches.
I thought the Nuggets played great last season, despite their injuries, Melo's suspension, roster change, etc. It will be exciting to see Kenyon Martin play again, especially with A.I in the lineup. What was really up with J.R. Smith last season - tiff with George Karl? If Coach Karl follows the same regimen he did last year, I think the Nuggets will be hard to beat. Najera is an unsung hero that always brings energy to the floor, and the rest of the team is made up of guys who want to play ball and WIN! I disagree with PF that egos are involved and I never saw Melo or A.I. do anything but help each other out and do what it took to try to win. Go Nuggets 2007/2008!
With a training camp under their belt and some playing time together this year, watch out for these guys. They are gonna terrorize some teams in the WC.
Nice breakdown. They could be a really scary team this season, especially, like you said, if Kenyon Martin returns to form and plays a little hungry. Lack of a true adequate point guard could hurt, but i guess you already know that too.
I dont understand why people thinks that steve blake is a good fit on the nuggets..!!!!! People say that he's a poor mans steve nash, but what he really is is a poor mans ai..he needs to dribble to create or before he shoots, he doesnt complement melo and ai's game, whenever they try to create and or kick the ball to him, he does the same thing!!! create...!!!! I think he's the reason why they lost those close game to SA. i'm just glad they got rid of him and they got a better spot up shooter in atkins..,, he'll shoot all day....
azazin - "People say that he's a poor mans steve nash, but what he really is is a poor mans ai..he needs to dribble to create"
What do you think Nash does? Nash dribbles the ball more than anyone in the league, and it isn't even close. What Blake does is initiate the offense and get guys the ball where they can do the most damage with it. Contrary to popular belief, AI is actually most effective when he can catch the ball on the wing because he is so good with his jab sequences. We've seen on the US team how well Melo can play with a pure point getting him the ball.
Sorry, but Steve Blake was the real deal. We just couldn't afford him. Blake was nasty, and poured on the assists. I wish Smith could take some ginko biloba or some fish oil and play like he had half a brain- he just plays like it's a pick-up game in crunch time. So much talent, wasted. Maybe his personal struggles will lead him in the right direction and we can have one of the deepest benches is the league. If Nene works a little more on weak side defense, he can be an enforcer, and more effective defensive rebounder. My faith is maaaad shaky in Kenyon- it would be insane to see him healthy with this squad, but then- not enough minutes to go around. Plenty of trade possibilities though.
A.I. is a play maker he consistanly posted 7-8 assits last year at the two they dont need a point guard they need a real two (or at least a bowen clone) someone to defend and to shoot open shots provided by melo & A.I. any thing else like court vision and or lane filling is gravy.(they should have sent kenyon (im reeally a teddybear) to G-state for richardson. everybody would be better for it. Denver has the same problem houston has... HEALTH........ONE
Last edited by kreillen on October 9th at 5:06 AM.
This team will win at least 50 games unless Camby misses a considerable amount of time to injury.
They just added Steven Hunter. Those two guys (Hunter and Camby) playing on the floor at the same time is pretty damn scary. We're talking about shots being challenged and altered left and right. We're talking about fast break opportunities in the other direction for a team that can run the floor really well.
Karl is a good coach. This team will be tough. Don't forget about Nene, who is a pretty solid post guy when healthy.
I think 50-58 wins is realistic...especially when you consider the bottom half of the division will be so incredibly weak.
kreillen - playmaker =/= distributer. As I explained above, a true point like Blake makes everyone around them better by initiating the offense and getting people the ball in the proper spots.
Train - Camby is really the key. When he's healthy, they're championship caliber. When he's not, they're just above average.
those first 22 games and shooting right around 50% from the field. He was almost as good when he came back, except for a bad March which was, coincidentally, the first real long stretch of time he and Iverson hit the court together. Both players played better after that month, and it led to a 10-1 April to close the regular season. 
him since he was in Dallas, he's one of the best energy guys in the league. He hustles his butt off, and he rebounds pretty well, especially on the offensive end.
ntire summer to integrate all the parts together? Can Marcus Camby stay healthy? How will Kenyon Martin come back from injury? Will Nene get in shape? Will George Karl admit that he and John Lithgow are long lost twins? Can any of his teammates actually spell Yakhouba Diawara's name correctly? Clearly, Denver has a lot of questions to answer coming into this year. What we do know is that they have a bona-fide upper-echelon star (Melo), an all-time great looking for a ring (The Answer), a great defensive center (Camby), and a bunch of very strong complementary players. To me, that means if they can put it all together, they've got a great shot at a title. 
