If you're not pumped about this year's NBA postseason, you might want to check your pulse. No fooling around, without further ado, we get to the picks.

East - First Round

1) Boston Celtics vs. 8) Atlanta Hawks

I'm not going to spend time talking about this one, Boston wins this one in a walk.

Pick: Boston

2) Detroit Pistons vs. 7) Philadelphia 76ers

I think this is going to be a deceivingly close series. Detroit has a tendency to take things for granted, and Philly has come on like gangbusters at the end of the year. They've got some legitimately good young players and they're so athletic that they can really score in bunches on you. They're not going to win the series, but I think it could go 6 close games.

Pick: Detroit

3) Orlando Magic vs. 6) Toronto Raptors

Both these teams confuse me. I really don't like Orlando, and I really think Toronto is better than they're showing. However, I just don't think Toronto has enough to win here. Bosh vs. Howard is a fantastic matchup, but the Raptors can't match up with both Lewis and Turkoglu. The disappointment of Bargnani really leaves them at a disadvantage at the forward spot. I want to call the upset here since T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon vs. Jameer Nelson is a big advantage, but I just don't like the matchups. The Raptors could win this one, but I'm not seeing it.

Pick: Orlando

4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5) Washington Wizards

Best first round matchup in the East. I was all ready to call the Wizards on this one, but they decided to go and mouth off about LeBron. Seriously, they've got huge edges against the Cavs at every position but SF, and they keep poking at the one guy capable of completely taking over a playoff series.  Seriously guys, you think taunting LeBron is the way to go?  The only way the Wizards lose this series is if LeBron goes nuts, and they keep giving him ample reason to do so. I don't know what to do with this. Washington is the better team, but betting against LeBron in this situation doesn't sit well with me. I'm very tenatively picking Washington, but I think it's almost 50-50.

Pick: Washington

Second Round

1) Celtics vs. 5) Washington

I like Tough Juice and I like Arenas coming off the bench, but the Celtics are just too good. They're a lockdown defensive team, and they can throw enough strong finishers at PF and C out there to overwhelm a weak Washington frontline.

Pick: Boston

2) Pistons vs. 3) Magic

Again, the Pistons scare me because of their complacency, and Dwight Howard will probably have a few crazy games in these playoffs. Still though, Detroit's the deeper and more talented team, and I just can't see Orlando pulling this one off. Unlike Toronto, they've got the lengthy wing defenders that can match up with Lewis and Turkoglu

Conference Finals

1) Boston vs. 2) Detroit

Great matchup, and I think this one could easily go 7. KG vs. Sheed, Pierce vs. Prince, Rondo vs. Billups. We've got some really dynamic defensive matchups here. Last year, I probably go with Detroit here. However, after watching them flame out so spectacularly against Cleveland and witnessing their cavalier attitude at times this year, I can't do it. The Celtics are desperate for a title, and they're going to show up each game. Also, I don't think you're taking a game 7 at the Garden, I'm just not seeing that.

First Round - West

1) LA Lakers vs. 8) Denver Nuggets

This is the matchup that the Lakers wanted to see. Much as I like Denver as a sleeper pick, their biggest weakness is that they leave far too many shooters open on the perimeter, and the Lakers just have way too many good shooters. You can't beat LA if you're going to leave Derek Fisher wide open 6-7 times a game. Denver can win a game or two, but I don't think they've got a shot at the upset.

Pick: Lakers

2) New Orleans Hornets vs. 7) Dallas Mavericks

The next three series are all ridiculously close. I like New Orleans in this one. They have trouble defending Dirk, but I don't think Dallas can handle Chris Paul. The thing I'm most concerned about with the Hornets is their depth, and in a first round series against a team that plays as slow as Dallas I don't see that being a factor. It's gonna be close, but I just don't think Chris Paul is losing this series.

Pick: New Orleans in a close one

3) San Antonio Spurs vs. 6) Phoenix Suns

You know, I was all set to pick San Antonio to win it all without any reservations. Then, they had to go and get matched up against their worst matchup. Is this a fantastic series or what? The rivalry between these teams, the star power, everything, it's amazing. Shaq defends Duncan as well as anyone, and Grant Hill has done a shockingly good job shutting down Tony Parker in the 4th quarter. Amare is playing out of his mind right now and Nash is still Nash. Here's the thing though, I'm still picking the Spurs. Duncan in the regular season isn't Duncan in the playoffs, and I don't think Shaq can guard Playoff Duncan without fouling out quickly. Also, last year the Manu-Barbosa thing was kind of a wash. This year, Barbosa has taken a step back and Manu has blown up to an All-NBA level. Phoenix doesn't have anyone who can handle him. This is such a killer matchup, and I think whoever wins it probably has a good shot at winning it all.

Pick: San Antonio

4) Houston Rockets vs. 5) Utah Jazz

Here's the irony of the thing, Houston might be better equipped to beat Utah this year than they were last year. Much as I love Yao, he wasn't effective defensively at all against Carlos Boozer or against Deron Williams on the pick and roll. This year, Houston's power forwards are so much better and their much more mobile as a team without Yao. They're playing really fantastic defense right now. On the other side, I really don't believe in the Jazz. Their post defense is just so weak. I honestly think this could be an upset, especially with how poorly Utah plays on the road. The thing that holds me back from picking the Rockets is Rafer Alston's injury. He has really done a great job on both ends of the floor this year, and I don't think Houston can take both of the first two games without him. Also, Utah can throw both Ronnie Brewer and AK47 at T-Mac all series, and I think he's going to run out of gas a bit. Utah is the pick, but it's going to be closer than people think.

Pick: Utah

Second Round

1) Lakers vs. 4) Jazz

No way the Jazz win back-to-back series without home court advantage, I'm just not seeing it. They're actually fairly similar teams in a lot of ways, LA has more depth and they've got Kobe, and that's the difference. Honestly, I don't think this one will be all that close.

Pick: LA

2) Hornets vs. 3) Spurs

The problem I've had with the Hornets is their depth, and that's still the issue. Jannero Pargo is good off the bench, and Bonzi Wells is decent at SF, but if Tyson Chandler gets in foul trouble they've got nobody behind him. I don't see him going a whole series against Duncan without landing in significant foul trouble. San Antonio is just too good, New Orleans doesn't have the defenders to match up with Duncan, Parker and Manu.

Pick: Spurs

Conference Finals

1) Lakers vs. 3) Spurs

If Andrew Bynum were healthy, it would be awfully tough to pick against the Lakers. As is, I don't think anyone on this LA team even comes close to slowing Timmy. I've felt all year that LA's defense is a bit of a mirage, not quite as good as the numbers indicate, and I'm sticking to that. Without Bynum, I just don't see them stopping the Spurs. Sorry Laker fans, but the Spurs are a great defensive team and they've got Duncan, that's enough for me in this case.


NBA Finals

1) Celtics vs. 3) Spurs

I really want to pick the Spurs here, I do. I believe they've earned that respect. They always turn it on in the playoffs, and they're awfully good. The thing is, they'll be coming off a much harder road to the Finals, and Boston matches up well with them. Garnett is the rare player who can really bother Duncan, Rondo vs. Parker is a great matchup, and Boston has better depth. So, much as I hate to do it, the pick is...ah screw it, I'm going with the Spurs. I can't bet against them, I just can't. I think Duncan is about to remind us of why he's one of the top ten players ever.

Pick: San Antonio for 07-08 NBA champions.

Here's the thing with the MVP race this year, you can make a legitimate argument for four different candidates. The candidates are all so worthy and so different that I wouldn't argue anyone's choice if they backed it up logically. Of course, there are a lot of illogical arguments out there, and I have no qualms about destroying them with my scathing wit :P. Also, if you're going to argue that the MVP is anyone other than KG, LeBron, Kobe or CP3, you have to wear the stupid helmet.

What makes this MVP race especially difficult to decide is that the candidates are so completely different. Do you think that the MVP is the best player on the best team? It's hard to argue against KG there. Do you think the MVP is the most productive player? LeBron has a pretty strong claim to that distinction. You can make the case for anyone, and a lot of it depends on what you think the MVP award means. How do you define "Valuable"? As I write this, I'm not even sure who my pick is, I'm just going to make the best case I can for each player.

Make no mistake, this is not who I think will win the award. Kobe's going to win it, I don't think there's any doubt about that. This is who should win the award.

I'm gonna throw some statistics out there that you might not know. They aren't necessary to understand, but I'm just putting them out there. I explain them quickly in this post, a little way down the page.

LeBron James
Relevant Statistics:
51.8% eFG
71.2% FT
11.1 RB%
37.3 AST%
11.4 TO%
33.5 Usage%
116 ORtg

So, halfway through the year I announced that LeBron was my midseason MVP. What's changed since then? For LeBron and the Cavs, absolutely nothing. LeBron's stats are almost identical now to what they were at the halfway point. The Cavs' record at that point was 23-18, they ended the season at 45-37, almost exactly the same winning percentage. In fact, what I said at the time looks almost prescient in retrospect,

"LeBron is killing teams this year, and he’s dragging a really bad team to a top 4 seed in the playoffs."

Quite simply, LeBron has been superb this season. Make whatever arguments you want about clutch or leadership or whatnot, but the fact of the matter is that LeBron has produced more, night-in and night-out, than any player in the league. To put things in perspective, the Cavs play the 6th slowest pace in the league, almost 10 possessions per game less than league-leading Denver. Despite that, he's putting up the kind of numbers that Oscar Robertson put up in his prime. He absolutely denies comparison, Within a few years, we could legitimately be talking about him in the "Greatest Of All Time" sense.History may show us to be fools if we deny him here. LeBron James has to be the MVP.

Chris Paul
Relevant Statistics
52.4% eFG
85.1% FT
6.2 RB%
52.2  AST%
12.1 TO%
25.7 Usage%
125 ORtg

It's taken Chris Paul a mere three seasons to draw comparisons to Isiah Thomas in his prime. Three years to rejuvenate basketball in New Orleans. Three years to become the unquestioned leader of the #2 seed in the toughest conference in history. Three years to give the Hornets their first ever division title. Three years. That's how long it took him to average 21 points and 12 assists per game. You know how long you've got to go back to find the last guy who went 20 and 10 with assists? All the way back to the 92-93 season, when Timmy Hardaway did it. Even more impressive? Paul did it while playing on the 5th slowest team in the league. When he was on the floor, CP3 assisted on 52% of his teammates' field goals. The only other guy ever to do that? It's this guy you might have heard of, goes by "Stockton". He's responsible for single-handedly making Tyson Chandler an offensive force. You want to see improving your teammates? The two seasons before he came to New Orleans, Chandler shot 52.3% on 4.4 FGA per game. In two seasons with Paul, Chandler has shot 62.3% on 7.1 FGA per game, and the Paul-to-Chandler alley-oop has become one of the NBA's signature plays. In three short years he's taken the title of "best point guard" from a hall of famer still playing some of the best ball of his career. He's one of the most efficient players in the NBA, he's the league's best point guard, and he saved basketball in New Orleans. Chris Paul has to be the MVP.

Kobe Bryant
Relevant Statistics
50.3% eFG
84% FT
9.0 RB%
23.9  AST%
11.3 TO%
31.4 Usage%
115 ORtg

Over the last 5 years, Kobe Bryant has arguably been the best basketball player on the planet. He's been to the Finals, he's carried a mediocre team to the playoffs the last two years, he's dropped 81 points in a single game, and he made All-Defensive Team after All-Defensive Team. In all that, he's been passed over for the MVP award time and again. People always had complaints: He shared credit with Shaq, his team wasn't good enough, he wasn't a good teammate, he looked for his own scoring too much. Well, no such complaints this year. Surrounded by a core of talented young players. Kobe has moved past his off-season discontent and been the leader the Lakers need. His guiding of an injury-plagued team to the #1 seed has been nothing short of amazing. Consider the Lakers' two main trade acquisitions this year. Paul Gasol has played effectively 26 of the 37 games since he came over, and Trevor Ariza has played a mere 24 of the 70 games since he arrived. Add to that the fact that centers Andrew Bynum and Chris Mihm have spent the majority of the year on the DL, and you see what a truly impressive feat it was for Kobe to take this team to the top of the Western Conference. He's become the player we kept saying he should be, and his team sits on top of the toughest conference of all time. Kobe Bryant has to be the MVP.

Kevin Garnett
Relevant Statistics
53.9% eFG
80.1% FT
16.8 RB%
19.9  AST%
110.8 TO%
25.5 Usage%
118 ORtg

Two numbers ultimately describe Kevin Garnett's impact this season. 66 and 24. That's the Celtics' win total from this year and their win total last year. Lest this 42 game swing doesn't impress you, remember back to the beginning of the season, back before the Celtics started demolishing everyone in their way, back when no one was sure how this would work. 3 superstars with 0 championship rings between them, not much of a bench and a reliance on young, unproven guys to fill the other spots on the court. We knew they'd be pretty good, we certainly knew they'd be better than last year, but no one was ready for this. 66-16, the best record in the league wire-to-wire, a huge +10.26 point differential (3.5 points higher than second-place Utah), and the best defense in the league by a long shot. More than anyone else, Garnett's impact goes beyond statistics (and that's saying something, since his are quite impressive). His arrival brought about a culture shift in Boston. His intensity has ratcheted up the defensive play of every other member of the team. His deft passing in the post and willingness to give them the ball has instilled confidence in guys like Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Leon Powe. His presence has drawn in free agents like James Posey, P.J. Brown and Sam Cassell to give the Celtics veteran depth. As far as overall impact on a franchise, it's hard to argue anyone has done more than Garnett. He's the best defender in the game, he turned his team around, and he rejuvenated basketball in Boston. Kevin Garnett has to be the MVP

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There are legitimate cases to be made for all four candidates.  However, we've got to pick one, so who's it going to be?

LeBron might be the best basketball player on the planet, but his team hasn't been impressive this year. Despite their overall record, the Cavs actually have a negative point differential. Basically, they're lucky to have even broken .500, much less be a 45 win team. How much fault does LeBron take for that? I'm not inclined to criticize him much, since he's been surrounded by a truly sucktastic supporting cast this season. However, he certainly doesn't have the defensive impact that Kobe or Garnett have, and I'm not sure Chris Paul hasn't actually had the better offensive season.

Paul has certainly put up impressive numbers and led his team to be a lot better than they were supposed to be. However, he's also got some pretty solid teammates around him. Peja's shooting stroke and David West's solid all-around game (by the way, even though people keep saying it, he's still underrated) really complement his skills and give the Hornets a strong team. Unlike last year, and unlike the Lakers this year, Paul's Hornets have stayed healthy and haven't had to deal with much adversity during the season. Also, of all these 4, Paul is probably the weakest defensively.

Kobe's overall production and statistical impact just don't measure up to LeBron and Paul. Those two are having, quite simply, transcendent seasons. His season certainly doesn't jump off the page like the others do. Also, the MVP award isn't a career achievement award, it's an individual regular season award. Frankly, Kobe has had better seasons, and just because he didn't win it then doesn't mean that he should win it now. Sure, he has done a great job leading the Lakers, but does it even remotely compare to the job that Garnett has done in Boston?

Garnett might be the main force behind Boston's turnaround, but it's not like he did it alone. Having teammates like Paul Pierce and Ray Allen certainly helps. Garnett also isn't the guy who is going to take the tough shot at the end o####ame, he's never relished that role. Can you be the MVP if your team goes to other guys in the clutch, especially when compared to these other three guys?

The Pick

I've swung back and forth on this in the last few weeks more times than I care to count. As I said above, I hadn't decided who this pick would be even as I wrote the post. After poring over everything, I realized that my MVP vote has to go to Kevin Garnett. Here's the thing, all week I've kind of dismissed KG's candidacy. I thought he was the weakest of the four, not  on the same level as Kobe, Paul and LeBron. However, as I looked over all that he's done this year and the numbers that he has put up, it becomes harder and harder to find any reason not to pick him. I'm not concerned with the fact that he isn't their go-to clutch scorer, I'm much more concerned with what happens in the first 45 minutes of the game than what happens in the last 3. I remember back to the criticism of the Ray Allen trade and how that only really turned into a good thing once KG was on board. I thought back to how uncertain I was of the Celtics at the beginning of the season. I thought about how Garnett transformed a team with no other guys who you could call reliable top-tier defenders and transformed them into one of the best (if not the best) defensive teams of the past ten years. His defensive presence, the way he has completely altered the team's atmosphere and the incredible turnaround from worst to first all point to one thing.

Kevin Garnett is the MVP

So, I'm sitting here watching the GS-DAL game and figured I'd do a bit of blogging on it (unless it gets out of hand and I end up switching to The Daily Show) and other assorted NBA stuff.

So, it's a few minutes left in the second quarter right now, 54-41 Dallas with Baron on the line. Inexplicably, the Warriors have seemed to come out with no energy at all. In a game that will be huge in deciding who gets in down the stretch, they're giving up a ton of easy buckets and not getting back in transition at all. Now, they've never been defensive stalwarts, but the complete lack of hustle to get back on D is alarming.

Jason Kidd has double digit assists already and Baron Davis has 18 or 20 points.

Monte Ellis is showing off his ability to score efficiently. He's a superb finisher down low and has really made huge strides with his mid-range jumper. Unlike a lot of young players, he knows his limitations and works within the confines of what he can do, and it makes him really effective. When he adds three point range look out, he's gonna be scary.

The commentators have hit on this a few time, but Dirk is not himself tonight. He's missed a lot of elbow jumpers and even got one of his fadeaways blocked (which never happens, it's as unblockable a shot as there is in the NBA today). I wouldn't be surprised if he's still being affected by this injury

I've been playing a lot of ball lately and rounding back into basketball shape after not having played consistently for a while. One of the things I've been reminded of is that it takes some time to get your timing back, and that particularly affects post players since both rebounding and shot-blocking are heavily dependent on timing. Those of you expecting Andrew Bynum to come back and immediately make an impact, keep that in mind.

50-60 at the half. It's pretty incredible that GS is playing so poorly and allowing Dallas so many open opportunities, yet they're only down 10. As has been the case many times this year, their guards are carrying them so far (15 and 18 for Baron and Monte, both on 7-12 shooting).

For Dallas, Kidd has 11 and 6, only it's 11 assists and 6 rebounds. Only 2 points, but he's dominating in other ways tonight. Josh Howard is showing off his pretty pull-up jumper and has dropped a few pretty dimes as well. He's got 18.

Toronto got robbed tonight when the officials waved off a beautiful lob play that got them a great look with only .5 seconds on the clock.

The hustle hasn't gotten any better for the Warriors. They're getting killed on the glass and in transition. How do you not bring more energy in a game of this magnitude? 75-59

5:40 left and it's a 15 point game. Golden State has to start making their move now if they want to have a chance here.

the Hornets panned Miami tonight to retain the top spot in the West. I'm not going to make a decision until the end of the season, but Chris Paul is making an incredible case for MVP this year.

BTW, any team who loses to the Heat for the rest of the year should be  completely embarrassed. Their starting lineup tonight? Chris Quinn, Daequan Cook, Ricky Davis, Earl Barron and Mark Blount. No, I'm not kidding. On the plus side, Sports Nerd favorite Stephane Lasme got some burn and had 4 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal and 4 fouls in only 18 minutes.

This game might as well be over. Dallas is up by 18 with 2 minutes left in the 3rd, and the Warriors look completely dead. Looks like the Mavs are finally going to pick up their first win against a post-.500 team in the J-Kidd era.

Now, here's a question for Josh Howard. You've gotten any shot you wanted all game, the Warriors haven't been able to guard you at all. You've got plenty of shot clock left. Why do you settle for a step-back fadeaway jumper from 19 feet? It amazes me sometime when guys almost go out of their way to take a tougher shot.

I'm switching over to The Colbert Report for the 4th quarter, I think you can put this one in the books.

Ah, March Madness. There is no doubt in my mind that the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is the greatest sporting event in the world. The excitement, the competitive games, the dramatic upsets, everything comes together to make it an amazing spectacle. This has been as depressing a college basketball season as I have ever followed (due to the colossal ineptitude of my beloved Wolfpack), and yet the tournament still sucks me in.

Anyway, here are some of my thoughts on guys that I've been watching in the tourney this year.

O.J. Mayo - A lot of people have been down on Mayo all year, mainly because of the incredible hype he came in with. We've known about him since the 8th grade and he was touted nearly as much as LeBron. However, he didn't have great performances early in the year and people kind of soured on him. Here's the thing though, even if he isn't a one-of-a-kind player, he's still pretty darn good. I think his offensive game is reminiscent of Gilbert Arenas only he's a bit bigger, and he seems to have solid defensive instincts. I think he's moved from being overrated to being underrated during the season.

Kevin Love - It astounds me that people still consider this guy a borderline lottery pick. Seriously? You'd rather have DeAndre Jordan (he of the 5-minute first round appearance)? I watched Love play tonight and he made a play where he grabbed the ball after a made shot, ran down the baseline out of bounds and lofted a pass downcourt that landed right in his teammate's hands after staying just out of the defender's reach. Seriously, he's the best passing big man we've seen come out of college for some time. In addition, he plays with great positioning, is ridiculously strong, has great touch around the basket, and to top it off he has three point range! This guy isn't a top ten pick? Someone please tell me how his ceiling isn't a rich man's Brad Miller.

D.J. White - I didn't really watch him during Indiana's one tournament game, I'm just warning you that, come draft time, I'm going to be harping on how this guy should go much higher than he will. He's really, really good.

Stephen Curry - I can't really put into words how much I enjoy watching this guy play, but I'll try. I've been a huge Curry fan all season, after seeing him do a number on UNC and seeing him in person at the RBC Center near the beginning of the season. If you hadn't caught on by the fact that he's averaging 33.3 in three career tourney games, he's really, really good. I just read a column by Bill Simmons today where he talked about Curry, and he compared Curry to Brandon Roy, which is something that I had thought to myself while watching him. He isn't extraordinarily quick, but he's so shifty in the way he switches speeds that he can get to the rim against most anyone, and he's a creative below-the-rim finisher when he gets there. Oh yeah, and then there's that shot of his. He's not just a spot-up shooter or a catch-and-shoot guy, but he can legitimately get an NBA three off from anywhere under any conditions. He's extremely intelligent using screens to get himself open, and he's also extremely good at freeing himself up for his jumper off the dribble. Of course, it helps that he has one of the quickest releases I've ever seen on his jumper, and he has a high release point. Needless to say, I don't really care that Curry is only 6'3. He's ridiculously talented, and he'll be picked way lower than he should be if he comes out this year.

Earl Clark - I hadn't watched Louisville much this season, but I came away from the game tonight enormously impressed by Clark. He's a 6'9 wing guy who is a tremendous athlete. He comes off the bench for the Cardinals, but he has all the tools to be a really versatile swing forward at the next level. If he sticks around, I'll definitely be keeping my eye on him next year.

In addition to all the NCAA action, I also caught the McDonalds All-American game last night. I hadn't been keeping particularly close tabs on this particular crop of recruits but some of them really jumped out at me. Here are some of the guys you should be keeping an eye out for in college next year.

Brandon Jennings - As I mentioned in my last post, his wicked-awesome flattop haircut has endeared him to me. Pretty early in the game though it became apparent that Jennings is simply a cut above everyone else with his ability to handle and pass the ball. He is extremely quick with the ball in his hands and made some truly spectacular passes look easy, including an off the backboard ally-oop that was actually the best way to deliver the pass due to a nearby defender. He also showed off solid range on his jumper and some surprising defensive intensity that you don't usually see in this type of all-star game.

Tyreke Evans - Despite all his scoring and his MVP award, I wasn't particularly impressed with Evans. Obviously, he can score with anyone, but he showed a complete disinclination to pass the ball at all, to an extent that it stood out even in this chuckfest. He's got great strength and finishing ability inside, and he has the body-type and ability to become a devastating scorer, but he isn't nearly there yet. He overdribbles and doesn't have a great jumper yet. A year or two in college will be a really good thing for him.

JRue Holiday - I was stunned when I saw that he is listed at 6'3/6'4. Watching the game, he's so long that he plays way bigger than that. I would've sworn that he was at least 6'7. He has terrific instincts and seems like a guy who will do the little things to help you win. His great length and ability to use either hand makes him a terrific finisher. He strikes me as a guy who will really impress next year at UCLA.

Willie Warren - In many ways, Warren was the opposite of Evans in this game. He alternated bombing away from deep behind the line and attacking the rim, but usually doing it very efficiently, with few dribbles. He has great quickness and the strength to finish through contact. He impressed me as much as anyone during the game, then I went out and found this clip of him on YouTube. Sick.

I'm back. After a rather long period of posting nothing, I've found enough free time to put together some observations on a fantastic NBA regular season that will be coming to a close shortly.

The Post-Shaq Suns (disclaimer: I wrote this before the Celtics game tonight)
The most surprising trade of the season drew negative criticism pretty much universally. Recently, with Phoenix's 7 game win streak, some analysts have changed their tune. I'm out to answer the question "What have the actual effects of the Shaq trade been?"

At first glance, Phoenix's offense has gotten better and their defense has gotten worse. Their offensive efficiency is 114.4 with Shaq, as opposed to 111.95 before the trade, a significant improvement. Conversely, their defensive efficiency has gone from 106 before the trade to 111.93 after it, which is a huge decline in performance. This supports what I would expect, that the loss of Shawn Marion and the addition of Shaq would hurt the team defensively, though I probably wouldn't have expected that kind of discrepancy. However, those numbers don't tell the entire story. Phoenix has played an extraordinarily difficult schedule since the trade, playing an amazing 13 teams with .500+ records out of the 17 total that they've played. The combined winning percentage of the teams they've played is 56.4%.

So, because I always go the extra mile for you guys, I took a look at the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings of each of Phoenix's opponents during the post-trade stretch and compared them to what they did against Phoenix during this stretch. If you don't really care about this, just skip the next two paragraphs and I'll sum it up at the end.

Defensively, things looked quite a bit better viewed this way. Phoenix's defense was about 1.2 points per hundred possessions (pp100 from now on) better than the league average before the trade, and they've allowed their opponents an average of 3.26 pp100 more than their average since the trade. That's a net difference of 4.46 pp100, which is 1.5 less than the 5.93 we found originally, so it's a pretty substantial difference. Phoenix's defense still got worse after the trade, but not as much as our stats originally showed.(If I went over your head with this, here's the nutshell version: I made an adjustment for the fact that the teams Phoenix played since the trade are above-average offensively).

On the other side of the ball, Phoenix's offense also looked better when adjusting for the competition. That's not surprising considering that 9 of their 17 games have come against the league's top nine defensive teams. Phoenix was 4.75 pp100 above league average before the trade. After the trade, they've averaged 8.07 pp100 more than their opponents typically allow. That's a net difference of 3.32 pp100 since the trade, which is about .7 higher than the 2.5 we found originally. (Basically the same note as before. I just adjusted for how good Phoenix's opponents have been defensively)

So, a rough estimate of the overall result of the Shaq trade is that Phoenix has gotten better offensively by 3.32 pp100 and worse defensively by 4.46 pp100.

What does this tell us? Well, the decline in Phoenix's defense was pretty predictable when they lost Shawn Marion. However, I think a lot of people would be surprised to know that their offense has improved almost as much as the defense has regressed. Not only that, but Phoenix's offense should continue to improve. Shaq's turnover rate has been unusually high since coming to Phoenix, and the team's turnovers are up. As Shaq figures out the system and the team continues to adjust to him, those turnovers should drop significantly.

Do I think Phoenix is a contender? Not really, their defense is just too poor. However, they've surprised me a bit by the way they're coming together. It wouldn't surprise me if they keep improving till the end of the year and make an intriguing case for playoff contention.

Deceptive Teams
One of the best predictors of playoff success is margin of victory, not actual winning percentage (surprised? It's true). Two teams in the East really stand out when looking at this factor. Cleveland's record is 40-31, but their margin of victory predicts a record of 35-36. Not a good sign for the Cavs. On the flip side, the Raptors have a record of 35-35 while their margin of victory predicts a record of 42-28. If the Raptors make a surprising playoff run, don't say I didn't warn you.

Dallas Despair
Honestly, I'm really sad that Dirk went down. It means that there's now a legitimate excuse for them choking away the end of the year, and my skepticism of the Kidd trade can't be validated. Oh well. I feel sorry for Dirk that he won't be able to vindicate himself for the last two playoff collapses. At any rate, it certainly clears up the Western playoff picture a bit. No way that a fading Dallas team holds on without Dirk in the lineup.

Other Notes

- I'm kind of sick of reading that LeBron's numbers are inflated by playing in the East and that Kobe's numbers would be higher playing in the East (this is very popular in many MVP posts I've seen). The truth is that for any two teams in the league, at least 56 games on the schedule will be identical. By the end of the year, the strength of schedule for most teams will be nearly identical (the difference between the winning percentages of the hardest schedule and easiest schedule right now is 3.2%). Six of the top twelve defensive teams reside in the East. It's a foolish argument that doesn't have any credibility behind it.

- This quote was very telling to me. It's a perfect example of Isiah's incompetence as well as an example of how classy a guy Deke is. Seriously, how can you not like Dikembe Mutumbo?
"After one season with New York in 2003-04, Mutombo was told by then-general manager and now head coach of the Knicks Isiah Thomas that the day had come, and that blunt message has driven him for the past four years. 'It's still a wound,' Mutombo said. 'My wife and I still talk about it. It's still a bit sad to see the commissioner coming and all those people coming to celebrate the 17 years of my career and accomplishments and you look back and say that about (four) years ago, I had a guy tell me that I couldn't play basketball no more, to go to the beach and onto vacation. That's the same guy who's losing his job tomorrow. ... I never said nothing (to Thomas),' Mutombo said. 'The last time we played at the Garden (Jan. 9), my wife asked me to go shake his hand, to just forgive him. I went and shook his hand and I told him, 'On behalf of my wife, I want to shake your hand and I forgive you for everything you've done to me.'" (From the Houston Chronicle via Truehoop)

 

- Look, I don't care what you think about Chris Webber, the man belongs in the Hall of Fame, and I heard a lot of speculation that he shouldn't get in on Sportscenter today. I think people are too quick to remember the hobbled C-Webb struggling through these last few seasons, and too quick to forget the constant 20-10-5 seasons he kept throwing up in Sacramento. He was All-NBA 5 straight times, he will go down in history as one of the greatest passing big men ever, and his Sacramento teams will be one of the best teams that no one remembers because they ran into the buzzsaw that was the Lakers dynasty. Health concerns robbed him of a few more good years, but Webber was one of the best power forwards of all time in his prime. He's a sure-fire Hall of Famer in my book.

- I was watching the McDonalds All-American Game tonight (I'll have more on this in a blog post soon, hopefully tomorrow) and the #1 recruit in the country, Brandon Jennings, was sporting a "Will Smith in the early seasons of Fresh Prince"-style flattop. Simply put, it was awesome. If he keeps his hair like that all next season, he would officially be my favorite college basketball player.

I've been following the Houston Rockets at a distance this whole season, and I was pretty disappointed in them up until recently. I even considered dropping them from my list of contenders at midseason because they just hadn't played well at all. In fact, here's what I said about them on January 25th, 3 games after McGrady came back:

"They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system...However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing."

You know, I think 16-1 since McGrady's return might qualify as taking off. So, what's changed in the last few weeks that has Houston playing so well? Like I did a while back with Portland, I'm going to take a look at the Rockets' streak both statistically and what I've seen when I watched them.

The first thing to note is the recent play of McGrady. I've remarked multiple times on how T-Mac's ball domination and constant isolation plays were killing the Rockets' offense. That's changed since McGrady came back from his injury. He's still scoring, but not as much, and he's taking less shots. The drastic difference though is seen in his passing ability, from 4.6 APG in November to 7 APG in January. McGrady's size gives him the ability to see and pass over basically any defender he's faced with, which is deadly in Rick Adelman's offense which features a lot of back-cuts. He's still a great option to have when the clock is running down and he still has those times when he gets hot and carries the team, but more and more he's fitting into the offense and getting his teammates easy looks.

The other big thing that's immediately noticeable is the increased production from the PF spot. Luis Scola has begun to start games and get more minutes and he's doing more with them. He moves so well without the ball and he's finally figuring out Adelman's offense, so he's getting himself easy shots and converting (leading to his 58.9% shooting this month). One of the most surprising developments in the league has been emergence of Carl Landry as a legitimate contributor on a playoff team. I panned the drafting of Landry at the time, but 'm eating my words now. He's ridiculously strong and has great hands, so he finishes almost everything he gets near the rim, and he's a pretty decent mid-range shooter. Most impressive might be the way he has quickly adjusted from being the primary option in college to moving off the ball and finding open space for easy shots. He and Scola both are very good with their spacing, and they're making teams pay for helping off them. What surprises me though is that the increased minutes have come at the expense of Chuck Hayes and the Rockets haven't suffered defensively or rebounding the ball. As a result, they've been a much-improved offensive team while maintaining their solid defense.

So, what do the stats from Houston's streak tell us? Well, most notably they're averaging almost 7 more points per 100 possessions, a huge jump from where they were from the rest of the season. Why are they so much better? Immediately what jumps out are the teams' assist numbers. The Rockets are averaging almost 5 more assists per 100 possessions, and they've assisted on 66% of their made FGs during the streak vs 57.7% for the rest of the year. All that extra ball movement and their turnovers are actually down, averaging 3 less TOs per 100 possessions. That ball movement results in the increased shooting percentages and better offensive efficiency that we see. It certainly looks as though the team is getting adjusted to Adelman's offense.

Defensively, I think Houston might be playing the best defense of any team in the league right now. I'm not sure how many people realize just how good this defense is because it doesn't jump out at you as you watch them. They don't block a ton of shots or force a lot of turnovers, and if you were just watching them play your team you'd probably think your guys just had a bad shooting night. However, if you pay attention to the Rockets, you'd notice that a lot of teams seem to have "bad shooting nights" against them. It's the thing that statistics finds almost impossible to quantify in individual players, the ability to play solid D and force tough shots. Houston has a few guys who are very good at making you take a tough shot over them (Battier, Hayes, Landry), but they also play fantastic help defense, rotating well in pick and roll situations and doing a good job of "helping the helper". Lastly, of course, there's Yao, who has the ability to block or alter shots without leaving his feet, meaning that he doesn't give up rebounding position to make your shot tougher. Put it all together and you've got a really good defensive team.

So what do things look like going forward for the Rockets? Well, first of all they play their next four games at home against Washington, Memphis, Denver and Indiana before they go play at Dallas, so there's a pretty good chance that they run this streak to 16 games. More importantly, this doesn't seem to me like a team that just got hot. This is a team that has genuinely made some huge progress during the season. I think McGrady came back from injury looking to integrate himself in the offense, and that Scola is getting better and better as he adjusts to the NBA game. Combine that with the emergence of Landry and the recent acquisition of Bobby Jackson (who played under Adelman in Sacramento) and you have a deep and talented team that is improving each game. The McGrady injury is looking more and more like a blessing in disguise. It got the rest of the team sharing the ball and moving it around well in order to score, and when McGrady came back he fit in and the role players were better for the experience. Also, that's 11 less games on McGrady's back this season, meaning he should be fresher come playoff time.

To me, few teams are exhibiting the kind of offense/defense balance that Houston is showing right now, and I think they're legitimately one of the top title threats. Obviously there's almost no predicting who comes out of the West this year. However, after seeing how they've begun to play offensively, I feel more comfortable now with saying the Rockets are contenders than I was at the beginning of the season.

I love the trade deadline. I really do. Watching contenders load up for the playoff run, watching inept GMs heinously screw up, it's really a great time. Anyway, now that the wheeling and dealing is done, I thought I'd go back and review this year's midseason trades (leaving a few out because, frankly, they're boring and not of great consequence).

Utah gets Kyle Korver
Philadelphia gets Gordan Giricek and a 1st round pick.

It passed with very little fanfare at the time, but in the wake of Utah's 19-3 record since acquiring Korver, people are starting to notice. One of the Jazz's big problems during a terrible December was that they couldn't score against zone defenses. Enter Kutcher...I mean Korver. He's one of the league's better spot-up shooters, and he (along with the return of Mehmet Okur) has really given the Jazz the ability to stretch defenses, and their offense has been blistering along ever since.

For Philadelphia, they get rid of a slightly overpaid piece who wasn't part of their future plans, and they pick up a draft pick. That's about as good as you're going to get for someone like Korver, and trading him opened up more minutes for stud rookie Thaddeus Young.

Solid trade for both sides

Lakers get Pau Gasol and a 2010 2nd round pick
Memphis gets Javaris Crittenton, Kwame Brown Aaron McKie, the rights to Marc Gasol and 1st round picks in 2008 and 2010.

This deal has been well chronicled already, so I won't say too much. The Lakers getting Gasol without having to give up any stud prospects or any of their solid rotation players was an absolute steal.

Memphis gave away Gasol for much less than his value, and it ended up not only hurting them here, but also in other trades as the deadline got closer. The net result of this trade is a young point guard who they didn't need (they had two excellent young points already), salary cap relief, 2 draft picks in the low 20s and a guy who would go in the back end of the first round if he were in it this year. Think about it, with the way late first-rounders are a crapshoot, the Griz might not end up with any solid rotation players from this trade. None! How do you trade away an All-Star caliber big man and get no sure-fire rotation players in return? Crittenton has potential, but is he better than Lowry? Because he took so little for Gasol and was grilled for it, Chris Wallace demanded more for Mike Miller and Lowry and wasn't able to get anything for them. So you lose Lowry at the end of the year for nothing because you can't keep all three guards. Why not make this trade closer to the deadline and see what other teams would offer? Were they afraid that the Lakers would take their 30 cents on the dollar offer off the table? Even if ownership was pressuring him to cut salary, this was a terribly mismanaged trade by Wallace.

Phoenix gets Shaquille O'Neal
Miami gets Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks

I'll have some more observations on Shaq later, but I'll say that I'm not as down on this trade as everyone else is. I didn't think Phoenix was a championship contender with Marion, and I think Shaq could possibly give them a puncher's chance. Between the widespread criticism of the deal, playing on a quality team and Phoenix's top-notch medical staff, there's a fairly good chance that Shaq turns back the clock a few years and  improves the team. If nothing else, everybody on the team is re-energized in a way that they've been lacking all year.

The deal was a slam dunk for Miami. They get cap relief and don't have to buy out Shaq's enormous deal, and they get an All-Star caliber forward in return. If Marion opts out, they get huge cap space. If he doesn't, they get another year of Marion who can help them contend for the playoffs in the East or they can ship him to a contender for future assets.

Atlanta gets Mike Bibby
Sacramento gets Shelden Williams, Lorenzen Wright, Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue and a 2008 2nd round pick

STOP THE PRESSES!!!!! The Hawks made a deal? And it was a good one??? Now, Bibby isn't an All-Star, but he's way better than what the Hawks had at the point. They didn't give up much, Williams wasn't going to get any burn with Horford around, and Bibby might be enough to push Atlanta into the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade.

Sacramento starts the rebuilding process by getting Williams, who can potential add some post toughness off the bench, and by getting out from under Bibby's salary. They also get more minutes for Beno Udrih and John Salmons. It's a pretty decent return on Bibby all things considered. I'm sure they wish they could've gotten something for Ron Artest too, but getting Bibby's contract off the books was the biggest concern.

Dallas gets Jason Kidd, Malik Allen and Antoine Wright
New Jersey gets Keith Van Horn, Devin Harris, Trenton Hassell, Maurice Ager, Desagana Diop and 1st round picks in 2008 and 2010.

I'm one of the few people who doesn't really like this trade. Listen, I like Kidd as a player and I think he's had a fantastic career, but I think people are really overlooking the areas in which he has declined over the last few years. He isn't a threat at all to get to the rim and finish, and he has declined as a defender. Kidd used to be a defensive terror, but he can't keep up with quick guards anymore and basically has to guard shooting guards. So you're left with Jason Terry trying to guard Paul, Williams, Parker and the rest. Do I think Kidd will be better with better teammates around him? Yes, but I don't think it's going to be nearly as big a difference as everyone thinks due to Dallas' lack of athletes to finish on the break and their isolation-heavy offense. Dallas is hoping that Kidd's veteran presence and toughness is enough to make a big difference, and it's certainly going to help. However, they also gave up their best post defender in Diop. I just don't know if Dallas improved all that much as a team with this trade.

The Nets ended up with a solid young point guard, two first rounders and expiring contracts. Considering how some superstars have been been traded for much less value recently, you have to consider that a pretty good haul for the Nets. The rebuilding process has a long way to go, but that's a heck of a start.

San Antonio gets Kurt Thomas
Seattle gets Brent Barry, Fransisco Elson and a 2009 1st round pick

Great trade for the Spurs, who are still my favorites to win the title and will be unless Tim Duncan breaks his femur. Not only did the Spurs get a fantastic post defender and veteran who can hit the mid-range jumper, but they keep other contenders from picking up the guy who played the best defense of anyone on Tim Duncan last year. Lastly, the Spurs left themselves just far enough under the luxury tax to sign someone to the veterans minimum, maybe even someone like Brent Barry (who was waived by the Sonics right after the trade).

For those of you keeping track, that's 3 first round picks that Sam Presti has gotten for practically nothing. First, the Magic traded a 2nd round pick to Seattle in a sign and trade for Rashard Lewis, creating a huge trade exception for the Sonics. Phoenix then traded Thomas and two 1st rounders for that 2nd round pick in a salary dump. Now, Thomas turns into another first round pick. That, my friends, is fantastic work.

New Orleans gets Bonzi Wells and Mike James
Houston gets Bobby Jackson and Adam Haluska
(other assorted stuff that no one cares about to Memphis)

I love the trade for New Orleans. Rasual Butler has played well enough to make Jackson expendable, and they desperately needed some post help off the bench. Wells isn't a great player, but he's a tough, veteran guy who can create his own shot and get to the line, and that's something you want come playoff time. I'm still not sure if they're legit contenders, but this is a step in the right direction.

Houston had basically no need for Bonzi with the emergence of Carl Landry (more on him later), and Jackson should help with their backcourt depth. Mike James had fallen out of favor, and Jackson should take some of the load off Rafer Alston.

Not a groundbreaking trade, but both teams traded guys they don't need anymore for guys who should help them, and that's a good trade.

Cleveland gets Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace, Delonte West, Joe Smith and a 2009 2nd round pick
Chicago gets Drew Gooden, Larry Hughes, Cedric Simmons and Shannon Brown
Seattle gets Ira Newble, Donyell Marshall and Adrian Griffin

I love the deal for Cleveland, absolutely love it. One thing that people have been overlooking this year is the fact that the Cavs have been a mediocre defensive team so far, a far cry from last year. Wallace isn't the dominant defender that he once was, but he's still an above average rebounder and a guy who can alter shots and gets in position for steals as well as any post in the league. He and Smith (who doesn't suffer Gooden's constant mental lapses) should improve their interior defense. Offensively, Smith is an upgrade over Gooden because he's such a good mid-range shooter, and Wally is a fantastic shooter. LeBron was easy to game plan for last year because he didn't have shooters around him. You space the floor out with shooters and who's going to stop LeBron the way he's playing right now? I think the Cavs just got upgraded to having a puncher's chance as a title contender.

I have no idea what the Bulls are doing. They got rid of Wallace only to bring in Larry Hughes' terrible deal. I suppose this is good because they get more playing time for their young bigs (Noah and Thomas), but they aren't really going anywhere. For a team that looked like they had everything going for them the last few years, the Bulls have fallen hard.

Seattle is just shedding salary again. I love what they're doing. They're creating cap space and stockpiling draft picks to build around Green and Durant.

Other Thoughts

- I watched the Rockets the other night and was really impressed. A few things really stand out.
    1) T-Mac looks WAY more comfortable with Rick Adelman's offense than he did at the beginning of the year. He's forcing things far less, and he's making good decisions to get his teammates open looks. He's still being used in the pick and roll and they can still go to him with the shot clock winding down, but they're running far less isolation plays for him. He's tall enough to pass over most guys, and that makes him really effective setting guys up in this offense.
    2) The Rockets play help defense as well or better than any team in the league. Individually they aren't all exemplary defenders, but they slide in to help and rotate over so well that they don't give up a whole lot of open shots.
    3) I panned the Carl Landry pick, and I'm eating my words right now. Landry is a really good player. He's really strong, has great hands and finishes strongly at the rim almost every time. He can also shoot a decent mid-range jumper and he's a very solid post defender. He moves really well in the flow of their offense to get a lot of open shots.
    4) Not so much about Houston, but this video o####uy proposing at halftime of a Rockets game is just painful. Can you imagine a more awkward situation? The NBA, it's where amazing happens.

- I'm not going to jump to any conclusions, but just one thing to point out about Shaq's term in Phoenix so far. The Suns have a negative rebounding differential on the year, but they've outrebounded their last two opponents by 18 and 13. Remember that reducing second chance opportunities is a facet of defense too, and if Shaq can help Phoenix do that then he might have the kind of defensive impact that the Suns want.

- Does anybody use the behind-the-back dribble as well as Manu Ginobili? Ginobili has taken a huge leap forward this season. He was good last year, but he's been awesome this year, carrying the Spurs on many occasions. He's as versatile a scorer as you're going to find, he shoots threes, midrange jumpers, finishes at the rim and gets to the line.

- One of the winners at the trade deadline might be the Celtics. Sam Cassell didn't get traded, which means he's probably going to get bought out. A bought out Cassell means a veteran backup point guard in Boston, and that's good news for the Celts.

I've been trying for the last few months to get the nickname "the Hammer" stuck on Dwight Howard, but that's over now. Make no mistake, Dwight Howard is Superman.

We've just gotten the first iconic moment in a career that promises to be full of them. On a night when he actually had two better dunks, the Superman Dunk will be remembered for the way Howard galvanized the crowd and put on display just how freakish an athlete he is. Whatever you think about the dunk/non-dunk (yes, I know he didn't really dunk it), it was a stunning display of athleticism, and it had the rest of the All-Stars going nuts.

In case you missed it guys, the dunk contest is back. The only contests that immediately come to mind as being as good as this one are the original ABA Dr. J vs David "Skywalker" Thompson, MJ vs. Dominique and Vince Carter completely blowing everyone away in 2000.

Jamario Moon and Rudy #### actually had some really quality dunks, but nobody noticed because Green and Howard set the bar so high. Rudy's first dunk  was basically the same as the 2nd dunk that Jordan threw down in that '88 contest, only Rudy finished with just his left hand, and his second dunk was similar to Green's dunk from last year, only with a higher degree of difficulty. Moon's left-handed free throw line dunk was extremely impressive, only he sabotaged himself by setting the tape up. Just think what he might have been able to do if he'd practiced that dunk.

Green's cupcake dunk was mind-blowing and incredibly entertaining, but suffered the same problem that Howard's Sticker Dunk did last year, the judges just couldn't see it properly. Great dunk and great showmanship though, that's one that people will remember for a while. The barefoot dunk was great, but he would've been better off combining that with the lob over the backboard. He suffered from doing two similar dunks back-to-back.

However, the night belonged to Howard, who did things that big men  just aren't supposed to be able to do. For his first dunk, he basically took what Andre Iguadola did, then added an insane degree of difficulty by tossing the ball himself and then finishing with a left-handed windmill. Um...wow. The Superman Dunk was so ridiculous that I can't get over it. To see a guy that big jump that high and then just throw the ball down into the basket...just awesome. He had everybody in the building on their feet in disbelief. His third dunk, to me, was the most impressive. To be able to catch a ball off the bounce with your left hand, tap it off the backboard, then catch it with your right hand and stuff it through is just an awesome display of athleticism and coordination. For a 7-foot center to be able to do that? Unreal. We throw the term "freak" around a lot in sports when describing athleticism, but Dwight Howard truly is a freak. He's like something from another planet...you might even say he's like "The Man of Tomorrow".

I thought I was going to have time to write an in-depth article about my picks for the Western Conference All-Star Team like I did for the East (btw, Shawn Marion retroactively kicks Jefferson off the team), but I just ran out of time this week. You guys will have to settle for a quick list with a bit of explanation, and some other vatious NBA musings.

Starters

G - Chris Paul
G - Kobe Bryant
F - Dirk Nowitzki
F - Tim Duncan
C - Yao Ming

Three of these (Bryant, Yao, Duncan) can't be argued, they're clearly the best at their position. Much as I love Nash, Paul has had the better season so far. He looks like a young Isiah Thomas, and he's been the best point guard in the league so far this season. Dirk wins out over Boozer by a narrower margin. I love Boozer's toughness and rebounding, but Dirk's just too good. Even with his early season shooting-slump, he's got great numbers.

Bench

G - Steve Nash
G - Allen Iverson
F - Carlos Boozer
F - Amare Stoudemire
C - Marcus Camby
WC - Manu Ginobili
WC - Brandon Roy

Nash, Boozer and Stoudemire were gimmes. Nash and Boozer have been fantastic, and not enough people are talking about how impressive STAT has been in only his second season back from major knee surgery. Iverson had to be here, he's been fantastic for the Nuggets while Melo is having a bit of a down year. There were questions as to how well Iverson would adapt to not being the main option and having a bit more of a distributor role, and the answer is that he has thrived. This is the most efficient season of his career. Camby is proving last year's DPOY wasn't a fluke, as he has surprisingly stayed healthy and almost single-handedly made Denver a good defensive team. Despite some truly terrible defensive teammates, Camby's presence as a shotblocker and rebounder has kept the Nuggets among the league's top five defensive teams. He's also a great passer for a big guy. The last two spots were the tough ones. I had to reward Manu for the way he has carried the Spurs at times this year. He'll do anything you ask him, he's humble enough to come off the bench, and he's one of the most versatile offensive threats in the game. The last spot came down to Roy vs. Baron Davis to me. I've watched both play this year, and while Davis is the more spectacular and eye-catching of the two, but Roy is equally impressive in the way he is always under control. Both are fantastic clutch players, and when you account for pace (GS is the league's 2nd fastest team, Portland the 2nd slowest), their production is very similar. For me, it came down to the fact that Roy has less talent around him (experienced talent at least) and has been the unquestioned leader of a team that has had far more success than anyone thought they could. That gives him the edge.

Apologies to the many players who have the misfortune of playing in the West, and didn't get chosen. Among these are: Melo, David West, Deron Williams, Al Jefferson, Baron Davis, Tyson Chandler, Josh Howard and Tony Parker, all of whom would've made the East squad.

Other Stuff

- Where does Bill Walton get off calling out Shaquille O'Neal for being arrogant? Not only was Walton injured his entire career but, according to his NBA.com bio, "Walton's combative relationship with the press further sullied his image. He spoke only to reporters he knew would present him favorably... And he was cocky, even to the Trail Blazers' coaching staff. According to The Sporting News, during one game Coach Ramsay said to Walton as he was coming off the court, 'Great job.' Walton shot back, 'Great job yourself.'" This guy is calling someone out for arrogance? Bill, you sat out AN ENTIRE SEASON because you were mad at management and wanted a trade! I'm not saying that some of what he said about Shaq isn't true, but he certainly isn't the guy to be saying it.

- Is anyone else as excited about the dunk contest as I am? People keep asking for guys like Kobe and LeBron to participate, but honestly I don't care. Instead, we've got 4 guys who actually care and are really getting into this competition. Dwight Howard has been waiting for this since he got cheated at last year's contest. Rudy #### has asked YouTubers to submit their own dunks, one of which he will pick to do in the contest. Jamario Moon has his own YouTube video, complete with the super-secret finale dunk. Green hasn't been heard from much, but you know he's going to bring it. How can you not be excited about this? The only negative? For some reason that defies logic, the league has again rejected Howard's petition to raise the rim to 12 feet for some of his dunks. What are they trying to do, protect the integrity of the dunk contest? Seriously, this is about entertaining the fans, let Howard show what he can do.

- People like to compare Golden State and Phoenix because of the pace they play at, but watching their game Wednesday, it was clear that they are very different teams. Golden State's offense is based on spreading the floor with slashers and shooters and finding mismatches. Phoenix's offense is based much more on cutting and screening to get guys open. The Suns also depend more heavily on one guy (Nash) than perhaps any offense in the league. What's funny to me is that (this is for all you college basketball fans) people keep comparing Duke's offense this year to Phoenix, when it is actually almost a carbon copy of Nellieball.

- The Kidd to Dallas trade just hit another snag when Jerry Stackhouse opened up his big mouth.

- Don't look now, but that Boston bench that nobody believed in is producing big-time with KG and Perkins out. We could've seen this coming from Glen Davis, but Leon Powe? Where did he come from? If they do end up adding Sam Cassell, the bench becomes a huge strength for this team.

That's it for me, I'm out for the weekend. Later all, and enjoy the All-Star festivities.

Well, I wanted to make this post a while ago, but I've been fighting sickness for the last two weeks, so it's slightly belated. Anyway, I'm gonna give you my All-Star Teams, and explain to you why some of the guys you might expect to be there aren't.

First of all, note that this is not a lifetime achievement award. I do not care what you did last year, nor do I care what you might be expected to do for the rest of the year. Performance is what matters.

Second, while I do consider your team's record, it's not a huge factor to me. I'm not going to penalize you for having crappy teammates.

Finally, I'm going to list some relevant statistics for each player. These are not going to be PPG or RPG statistics, cause frankly those are usually poor measures of performance and you can find them anywhere. Because I'm going to be listing some statistics that some of you might not recognize, I'll give you a quick synopsis of some of them.

eFG (effective field goal percentage) - This is simply field goal percentage, except it gives extra credit for three-pointers.

ORtg (Offensive Rating) - A measure of how efficient an offensive player is. It's a ridiculously complicated formula, but basically it estimates how many points a player creates per every 100 possessions they use.

USG% (Usage %)- The estimated percentage of the team's possessions that a player uses  while they're on the floor. As a general rule, as USG% goes up, ORtg goes down (harder to be efficient the more you're asked to do). Point Guards often have lower USG% (around 20%), whereas high-volume scorers (DWade, LeBron, Kobe, etc.) usually have a USG% of 30% or more.

AST% - An estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals that you assist on while you're on the floor.

TO% - estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions. Anything below 10 is outstanding, over 20% is usually pretty bad.

REB% - An estimate of the percentage of available rebounds that a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

(most statistics courtesy of basketballreference.com)

That said, on to the teams.

xphoenix87's Eastern Conference All-Stars

Starting Lineup

Guard-Chauncey Billups (53.4% eFG, 90.4% FT, 22.5 USG%, 128 ORtg, 34.6 AST%, 12.7 TO%)
One of the steadiest players in the league, and one of the most ruthlessly efficient offensive players out there. He's a nightmare to match up against for most teams because he's so good at backing down opposing point guards and abusing them with short turnaround jumpers or headfaking them into fouling him. Billups was an easy pick.

Guard-Jose Calderon (58.7% eFG, 91.7% FT, 130 ORtg, 44.8 AST%, 13.8 TO%, 5.58 A/T)
I know, he didn't even make the All-Star team, I must be out of my mind to have him as a starter, right? Well, lets look at him versus the actual All-Star starters, Jason Kidd and Dwayne Wade. There's been a lot of hype about Kidd and his near-triple double pace this season, but how about the fact that his 23.8 TO% is the worst of any starting PG in the NBA. He's a fantastic assist man, but a lot more of his passes are finding opponents' hands this year, and his extremely poor shooting really hurts him. The only real advantage he has over Calderon is his rebounding, which is exceptional for a guard. However, his offensive deficiencies are crippling, he just isn't a threat to score off the dribble at all. How about Wade? Well, obviously Wade is a fantastic player, but he isn't having a fantastic year. His team is absolutely terrible, to the point of embarrassment. He's missed 9 games with injury, and he really is having a very poor offensive year for him. His FG% is down, he isn't getting to the line as well, his turnovers are up, his assists are down, and his offensive rating is down 9 points to a pedestrian 103. He's still good, he still carries a huge load, but Calderon has just been too good. He leads the league in ORtg, he shoots the ball extremely well and he doesn't make mistakes. Not only does his 5.58 A/T ratio lead the league, but it does so by a wide margin. To put it in perspective, among players with more than 300 assists, Calderon's A/T ratio doesn't just lead the league, but it it's better than anyone over the last 8 seasons.

Forward-LeBron (33.6 USG%, 116 ORtg, 51.3% eFG, 37.8 AST%, 11 TO%, 11.8 REB%)
Any argument that LeBron should be the starter here? Didn't think so, moving on.

Forward-KG (24.2 USG%, 120 ORtg, 55.1% eFG, 17.2 REB%, 20.5 AST%)
More than any statistic, the impact of Garnett is most pronounced in these numbers.

106.9
24

98
38

The first two numbers are Boston's defensive rating and win total from last year. The second two are those same numbers from this year. Defensive impact has been notoriously tricky to quantify, but the effect of Garnett on Boston has been palpable.

Center-Dwight Howard (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 21.6 REB%, 60.2% eFG)
Again, anyone want to argue this? Howard is easily the most dominant center in the conference, if not the entire league.

Bench

Guard-Dwyane Wade (33 USG%, 103 ORtg, 35.8 AST%, 9 FTA/36, 75.6% FT, 46.8% eFG)
Is he having a down year? Yeah, sure, but he's still Dwyane Wade. He still gets to the line as well as anyone in the league, and he's still a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can find his teammates. Plus, the guard corps in the East are crappy, so there isn't really anyone else here.

Guard-Rip Hamilton (24.7 USG%, 114 ORtg, 53.1% eFG, 23 AST%, 10.4 TO%, 81.5% FT)
Honestly, I searched really hard to find someone who deserved this spot, maybe someone that everyone else had missed. No dice. As I mentioned above, the guards in the East are so bad that I'm really kind of reaching here (as opposed to the West, which is overflowing with candidates). In the end, nobody I looked at was having a better year than Hamilton. A lot of people like Ray Allen here because of how well Boston has played, but I'm not buying that, and Rip is having a better year. Hamilton is an extremely efficient scorer, and might be the league's best at using off the ball screens (It's between he and Kevin Martin IMO). In addition, he's also a very solid defensive player (as with most Pistons players).

Forward-Caron Butler (24.4 USG%, 115 ORtg, 50.8% eFG, 91.3% FT, 20.5 AST%)
Butler supposedly made "The Jump" last year when he made it into his first All-Star game. Well, if he was jumping last year, he's flying this year. His turnovers are down, his assists are way up, his shooting percentages are way up, and he's carrying the Wizards in Gilbert Arenas' absence. His mid-range game has always been among the best in the league, but this year he has really increased his range, shooting 36.5% from long-range.

Forward-Paul Pierce (25.7 USG%, 110 ORtg, 49.6% eFG, 22.8 AST%, 8.8 REB%)
I was trying to decide between Pierce and Richard Jefferson here, and really the difference between the two is minimal. Their stat profiles are so similar that it's almost impossible to chose between them. Jefferson is putting up better pure scoring numbers, but Pierce is the better distributor and rebounder. In the end, it comes down to Pierce being the superior defensive player and more proven star.

Center-Chris Bosh (28.6 USG%, 117 ORtg, 14.9 REB%, 10.2 TO%, 48.9% eFG, 85.6% FT)
Even if Bosh didn't actually deserve this, he's really the only choice. At any rate, Bosh is having the best season of his career. He's often the forgotten 4th member of that LeBron, Wade, Melo draft class, but he has absolutel
y kept himself at that level. He hasn't yet become a dominant defensive force, but he's definitely improving as a disruptive force who can defend without fouling. Offensively, he rivals Garnett and Duncan as the best face-up post men in the league. He's got a great jab step, and he's so quick and so long that he's almost impossible to guard without help. That quickness means he gets to the line a TON, and his FT% has shot up to 85% this season. He's also got great hands, makes quick decisions, and picks his spots well, leading to very low turnover numbers for a guy his size who has such a high usage rate.

Wild Card #1-Richard Jefferson (27.5 ORtg, 111 ORtg, 48.5% eFG, 80.4% FT)
If I struggled with Jefferson vs. Pierce above, it didn't take a lot of thought to put him here. A bit overlooked in the Nets' collapse, Jefferson is completing his transformation from a role player who finished Jason Kidd alley-oops into the team's star-quality first option. It isn't the most efficient year of Jefferson's career, but he's taking on a much bigger role in the offense, and he's thriving.

Wild Card #2-Josh Smith (26.5 USG%, 100 ORtg, 13 REB%, 45.3% eFG, 20 AST%, 3.4 BPG, 2 SPG)
There were three people I considered here: Smith, Antwan Jamison, and Tayshaun Prince. Jamison is having a solid year, and he's rebounding than he ever has in his career. He doesn't make many mistakes (4th lowest TO% in the league), but the fact that he shoots 30% from the field really hurts him. He also doesn't play defense, and he just isn't a good enough offensive player to make up for that and get on the team for me. Prince is a fantastic player who often gets overlooked in Detroit, but he's a matchup nightmare with his length and versatility, and he's one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. However, if I'm going to go with a defensive force, it's got to be Smith. He might not have much polish as an offensive player yet, but Smith is the rare player who can be a dominating defensive force against multiple positions. Like Andrei Kirilenko, he can match up with wing defenders, but he's also a force defending the rim and drifting into passing lanes. The Hawks are 9th in the league in defense, and the biggest reason is Smith's game-altering presence.

Some guys of note on the outside looking in

Kidd - People get wrapped up in the whole triple-double thing, but the fact is that Kidd has really fallen off as an offensive player. He can't finish around the rim at all anymore, and he's turning the ball over at a prodigious rate. People need to start getting used to the idea that the 34-year old Kidd may not be an elite point guard any more.

Jamison - I went over this above. Very good offensive player, very bad defensive player.

Michael Redd - What I said about Jamison, only more pronounced. To say that he plays matador defense is an understatement.

Hedo Turkoglu - Hedo is a fantastic story this year as he has really improved his play and become a key part of Orlando's success. He's had some truly great moments at the ends of games too. However, I think he's much more a top-tier role player than he is an all-star. He isn't a good defender, and his offensive numbers are good, but not great.

Joe Johnson - He's only noteworthy because he's on the actual all-star team. In reality he's having his worst season as a Hawk, and doesn't deserve to be on the team.

Western Conference team coming soon