In 2004, Kurt Busch entered the Chase seventh in the standings but put together his best stretch of races all season and won the Championship.  He proved that everyone has a chance in the Chase.  But this is the deepest Chase field ever – boasting nine Cup Championships and four Busch Championships – so this year’s Champion will need to perform at the highest level ever.

Keys to this year’s Championship….

Score 1,500 points – The previous winners scored between 1,486 and 1,430 points during the Chase – with this field you’ll need 1,500 points to win.

Score Top 5’s – The first three winners scored at least five Top-5 finishes during the Chase – Top-10’s are not enough.  

Excel at both the Car of Tomorrow and Intermediate Tracks – The focus is on the five COT races – but there are also five intermediate tracks in the Chase.

Will everyone have a bad race? – Past Chase Champions had finishes of 42nd, 25th, and 39th – but expanding the field to 12 drivers increases the chance that someone will run the table. 

The Champion will be….  

Jeff Gordon has blended consistency and excellence all season.  Only six drivers scored 1,500 points over ten-consecutive races this season – Gordon did it eleven times.  By comparison – Johnson, Stewart, and Hamlin did it three times; and Kenseth and Kurt Busch did it once.   

Entering the Chase, he has the most Top-5 finishes (15) and Top-10 finishes (21) and has been the best in the COT. Don’t buy his late season “slump” – he was gambling for wins.  His average running position during those races was 9th. 

The Contenders….    

Tony Stewart has been as good as anyone since July and when he gets hot the wins come in bunches.  He’s excellent in the COT and won last year’s Chase races at Kansas, Atlanta, and Texas.  

Jimmie Johnson enters the Chase with two straight wins and 60 bonus points.  He’s outstanding in the COT and on intermediate tracks.  In 30 Chase races – he has seven wins – but also five finishes of 30th or worse.   

Keep an eye on….    

Kurt Busch scored the most points in the ten races before the Chase.  COT performance is improving and the Miller Lite Dodge won two of the last three races on intermediate tracks.  

Denny Hamlin has been very good everywhere – but a notch below the top three. 

Carl Edwards dominated at times in both the COT and at intermediate tracks – but has not put together seven consecutive Top-15 finishes this season.  

The Dark Horse….    

Martin Truex, Jr. was strong on the intermediate tracks this summer and performed well at several of the COT tracks in the Chase.  This team won two tight Busch Series Championships beating fellow Chasers Kyle Busch and Clint Bowyer.   

The Others….    

Bowyer, Burton, Kyle Busch, Harvick, and Kenseth all had excellent seasons – but they have not performed at the level of the top contenders.  To win this Chase, they will have to put together their best ten-race stretch of the year. 

Emotions bond fans and drivers – they’re the thing we have in common.  Most fans can’t relate to the feeling of racing a stock car – but we can all relate to the feelings of winning, losing, and being wronged.

Outbursts of anger and disappointment are as important to NASCAR as outbursts of joy and celebration.  They reveal the nature of drivers and ignite the passion of fans. They also present a fine line for NASCAR.

The Nature of Drivers:

“He crashed me it’s a simple as that, I was going to pass him and win the race, but he turned left and crashed me.  So, hell, I crashed him back.  If I wasn’t going to get back around, he wasn’t either.” – Cale Yarborough, March 2003

“The track was mine until he hit me in the back.  He got me loose and sideways, so I came back to get what was mine.  He wrecked me, I didn’t wreck him” – Donnie Allison, March 2003

More than 20-years after their wreck on the last lap of the 1979 Daytona 500, the emotions of the racing won’t die.  Men who devote their entire lives – and those of their loved ones – to the singular pursuit of racing can’t help it.  It’s no wonder that every notable driver in NASCAR history – from the volatile Tony Stewart to “Gentleman” Ned Jarrett – has been involved in at least one feud.

Drivers learn to forgive, but they can’t ever forget.

The Passion of Fans:

“All I can say is the next time Tony’s (Stewart) holding me up, it won’t be very long for him to be out of my way.” – Jeff Gordon, Dover, June 2005

Admit it – just reading that quote triggered an emotion. For fans, on-track incidents have clarity – right and wrong – black and white – none of the grays that complicate life.

NASCAR’s Fine Line:

“Fine them?  Hell, boy, I might give them a raise.” – Bill France to a reporter two days after the fight at the 1979 Daytona 500

For NASCAR, the quote says it all – feuds are good.  If racing is their steak – feuds are the sizzle they use to help sell it.

But there is also a fine line. Some outbursts of anger – name calling, shoving, and the popular “#### whoopin’ threat” – can be good for NASCAR. But there are three boundaries – safety, integrity, and image – that must be protected.

•  Safety – Revenge with a 3,400 lb race car can be deadly. Policing rough driving on the track is difficult and subjective – but overall NASCAR does it well. On pit road they should enforce stricter rough driving penalties with zero-tolerance – start with a one-race suspension.

• Integrity – NASCAR can’t allow feuding drivers to spoil the racing.  They have to step in if drivers start a car-crashing war – see Earnhardt/Bodine in 1987.

• Image – NASCAR is a family sport and an occasional “dust-up” won’t hurt, but it can’t become a weekly brawl.  Drivers’ accountability to sponsors helps prevent this.  

Night races are special events on the NASCAR calendar. The sights, feel, and energy of races are distinctively more vibrant and stunning at night.  With sparks flying, brake rotors glowing, and the brilliant colors of the cars – the racing comes to life with dramatic intensity after dark.

Beyond the visual impacts, night races offer several logistical advantages for NASCAR, fans, and race teams…

For NASCAR, Saturday night races allow Sunday rain dates with greater attendance and viewing than Monday (or Tuesday!) rain dates.

For Fans who pay hard-earned money for tickets, the Sunday rain date can mean the difference between seeing the race and not.  Night races also save people from the oppressive daytime heat and allow Sunday for travel.

For Race Teams, the Saturday night races allow them to spend a little less time away from home during the long NASCAR season.  Teams are currently in a stretch of 17-straight weekends of racing – so a few Sundays at home are special.

But for all of the reasons to run night races, there are equally compelling reasons to limit the number of night races…

For Local Tracks, nighttime NASCAR races steal energy, attendance, and money. Too many night races would devastate local tracks and ultimately hurt NASCAR.  As NASCAR proclaims in its commercials – local tracks are the “Soul of NASCAR.”

For Fans, the late start time of night races means even later finishes. So many fans don’t get to see the most important and exciting part of the race – the finish.  While TiVo may capture the images – it can’t capture the intensity and excitement of the live event.

For NASCAR, young fans are important for business.  NASCAR’s marketing efforts often promote its popularity in the important younger demographics. Many of these young people are exposed to NASCAR as kids – through family trips to the races and/or Sunday afternoons watching NASCAR with family.  Too much night racing reduces the opportunities to introduce kids to NASCAR.

NASCAR’s Challenge and Some Suggestions…

The 2007 schedule includes eleven night races and NASCAR should keep that number.  The challenge for NASCAR should be to better schedule the night races to capitalize on the advantages and minimize the negative impacts.

Focus on the Short Tracks where the size and close-confines benefit the most from lighting. The beatin’-and-####in’ of short track racing makes the best show at night.

Spread the night races out to provide more benefit to the race teams and lessen the impact to local tracks.  The current schedule has night races bunched together – five of six races in April/May and three straight at the end of August/September.

Focus on marquee events by continuing to schedule night races on summer holiday-weekends.  Add a focus on marquee tracks.  A return of the Southern 500 at Darlington on Labor Day weekend – under the lights – would be fantastic! Shine a spotlight on the tradition of NASCAR at one of its most historic tracks.

Avoid the heat by scheduling night races only in the hotter summer months and climates. 

Many casual fans are used to “stick and ball” sports with one winner and one loser, so the idea of a point system to determine a champion seems odd and confusing.  But NASCAR teams compete against the entire field – so each race has only one winner and 42 losers and each season has only 36 chances to win but more than 1,500 chances to lose.  Casual fans need to be educated that a point system is necessary – because while wins are important – wins alone cannot determine a champion or define greatness in NASCAR.

Nothing reinforces this point more than the career of Dale Earnhardt – rightfully considered by many the greatest stock car driver ever. Only Richard Petty won as many championships as Earnhardt’s seven, however during his career he led the circuit in wins only twice. In fact, four other drivers – Waltrip, Elliott, Wallace, and Gordon – all led the circuit in wins more often than Earnhardt during his career. 

The most important goal of the point system must be to determine a worthy champion not simplicity.  The biggest problem with NASCAR’s current point system is that it punishes bad finishes more than it rewards wins and this leads to conservative “points-racing.” Since teams often have little control over their bad finishes – getting caught in someone else’s wreck, flat tires from debris, etc. – many question the fairness of the current system. The problem becomes magnified during the Chase when a single bad finish can cost a racer the championship.  

Last year, some people suggested giving each driver a “mulligan” – the golf term for a do-over – to overcome this problem.  In NASCAR, it would mean not counting each driver’s worst finish.  I don’t want a system that gives drivers “mulligans,” – but I would like a system that allowed drivers to earn “mulligans” by winning races. 

The standings would consider each driver’s average points-per-race and for every win the driver’s lowest finish would be dropped from the calculation. The system would allow teams to overcome bad luck through great performance. Under this system, Jeff Gordon in 2005 and Tony Stewart in 2006 would have made the Chase because their multiple wins during the regular season would have overcome some of their bad luck. In 2004, Jimmie Johnson’s incredible performance – four wins in the last six races of the Chase – would have allowed him to overcome two wrecks and a 247-point deficit to win the Championship.

 A few more changes …. 

The regular season champion deserves a reward 

Right now the regular season isn’t much more than a qualifying heat. The leader after 26 races deserves a significant bonus.

Eliminate bonus points for leading a lap 

This is the most manipulated/tainted bonus with leaders slowing down to let teammates lead a lap and 30th place drivers staying out to “lead” a lap under caution.

Teams finishing 35th or worse get the same points 

Nobody wants to see teams repair badly damaged cars and ride around at minimum speed (except at Bristol!).

NASCAR’s growth has been fueled by the unmatched loyalty that fans show the sport’s sponsors. A 2005 study found that NASCAR fans are three-times more likely to buy a sponsor’s product. This loyalty attracted corporate funding - starting with the Winston sponsorship that helped launch NASCAR into this era of incredible growth. Today, more than one-hundred Fortune 500 companies are sponsors. According to Forbes, the average NASCAR team is worth $120 million with 75% of their revenue coming from sponsors - it’s become big business and escalating costs only increase the need for more and bigger sponsors.

To continue growing, NASCAR must cultivate its most valuable assets – loyal fans and the sponsors who love them. Here’s how ….

Keep its Values  – NASCAR is an every-man sport and a family sport. It can’t lose that appeal. To develop loyal fans - start by attracting people who value loyalty.

Increase Diversity – NASCAR’s grown, but huge segments of the population remain to be reached. Successful minority drivers will open those doors. Just imagine what a Lewis Hamilton/Danica Patrick would do for NASCAR .

Franchise Teams – Cup teams are big business so the days of open entry are over. If long-time sponsors like UPS and NAPA keep missing races, $15-$20 million sponsorships will be harder to secure.

Promote History - Great sports have a strong sense of history. New fans need to know that today’s stars follow in the footsteps of Petty, Pearson, and the other greats. The Hall-of-Fame is a great step, but more is needed.