First of all, congratulations to the Detroit Pistons on their Game 7 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers in a series that was far too close for comfort.  Clearly Cleveland lacked the composure (which comes with playoff experience) to finish off the defending Eastern Conference champions, and the Pistons players played with undaunted tenacity and urgency in that final game to ensure victory.

However, a seven-game series against the Cavs doesn't bode well for a Pistons team that should have taken care of business in four or five games.  Detroit was, to say the least, inconsistent throughout the series, winning the first two games only to drop three straight but regain their edge to win the final two.  This sort of "stop and go driving" is something that a playoff contender can simply not allow to happen if they wish to succeed.  Picking and choosing games to show up for will not suffice for the Pistons if they wish to defeat the Miami Heat.

Overall Matchup

            At a glance, this series is Shaq and Dwyane Wade against that guy who wears the face mask, the guy with the fro, and that really good point guard.  It still seems that the most famous Piston nationally is Rasheed Wallace (and that's largely because of his troubled history with Portland and his playoff "guaran-'Sheeds" with the Pistons) even though four of Detroit's five starters made the All-Star team this year and Chauncey Billups finished in the top five in MVP voting.  Locally, the Pistons starting five are revered and known by all, even many who don't consider themselves basketball fans.  But the fact remains that this is still virtually a team of role players with no single definitive offensive leader.  Nationally, while the Pistons have grown in popularity as a team, their roster remains somewhat obscure to the casual fan, or at least the sports media.  Just turn on ESPN, and chances are you might see a SportsCenter segment on Shaq, the SportsCenter commercial with Dwyane Wade, or even a feature on Pat Riley's triumphs in the face of negative publicity he received after taking over as coach of the Heat once again.  But Miami is not even the best team in the Eastern conference.  The Detroit Pistons had the best record, and have won the conference two straight years.  Yet they remain an afterthought in the eyes of the national basketball media.

            Obviously this is an excellent matchup.  No team in basketball has a more balanced starting five, in terms of striking a harmony between offense and defense, than the Detroit Pistons.  However, one would be hard-pressed to find a better 1-2 punch in the league then Wade and Shaq.  Both teams also are relatively deep on the bench, but I still give the Pistons a slight edge in that department (Hunter, Delk, McDyess, etc.).

            Miami will need to exploit their definite advantage on the glass and under the basket.  Shaq, Alonzo Mourning, and Udonis Haslem must outmuscle Detroit inside, and be relentless in guarding under the basket on the defensive end.  Also, Dwyane Wade is an extremely powerful weapon for driving to the basket, and he should help draw fouls and of course score plenty of points in this series.

            For the Pistons, the key to this series lies in their perimeter shooting.  When the Pistons make threes, they almost always win.  When the threes don't fall, Detroit tends to lose their ability to do anything productive offensively.  Making two-point jump shots are also crucial for the Pistons.  Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, and Rasheed Wallace must have good shot selection, and not throw up ill-advised jumpers in the face of two or three defenders.  Detroit's inside game is not very effective, and as a team their ability to drive to the basket, while good, is limited.  Therefore, good ballhandling and outside shooting should be used to create holes in Miami's defense that will allow the Pistons to penetrate inside.  Defensively, Detroit should be able to limit Miami's scoring opportunities.  Ben Wallace needs to be on top of his game, which he has been.  The key is preventing the Heat from getting too many offensive rebounds.  Hack-a-Shaq is never a bad option if all else fails.

Coaching Matchup

            What can I say about this?  You might have read my last post about Flip Saunders and his unproven playoff coaching abilities.  Well, I still feel they are unproven.  After all, the Cavs were an inexperienced playoff team with a very inexperienced coach, and I feel that largely it was the Pistons players who finally decided to retake control and win that series.

            In the conference finals, Detroit meets the Miami Heat, a battle tested team led by basketball coaching legend Pat Riley.  This is a team that, unlike the Cavs, would probably not have lost the final two games of a series in which they had led three games to two.  This is a coach who has won multiple NBA championships and coached the likes of Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and James Worthy.  Riley will dissect Detroit's strategies, and he will preside over his team with the utmost wisdom, competence, stamina, and precision.  The man is a consummate perfectionist.  He would not accept from his own players the arbitrary shifts of effort exhibited by the Pistons against the Cavs, and will certainly seize any opportunity to strike Detroit viciously in a moment of perceived weakness.

            Fundamentally, I don't believe Flip Saunders is capable of out-coaching Riley under any circumstance.  The Piston players can still win the series for the team, but if things come down to coaching, the absence of Larry Brown (see my last post) will come back to haunt them.

Predictions

            In this series, the Pistons cannot afford to take any games off in the long-range jump shot department.  When those shots fall, Detroit tends to control the tempo and claim victory.  In the playoffs thus far, the Pistons have not shown the ability to win games in which they are shooting poorly from beyond the arc or from the field in general.  They have not been able to get themselves out of the ruts created by missed shots and playing from behind.  This can be attributed to inferior playoff coaching-the largely unproven Flip Saunders instead of the Hall of Famer Larry Brown.  Coaches should be able to affect the attitudes of their players, and we'll see if Saunders can establish himself as a good postseason strategist as this conference final plays out.

            Conversely, the Miami Heat took care of business against the New Jersey Nets, and although the games were competitive, it only took them five games to win the series.  Considering this Heat team seems more lightly regarded than last year's, their show of power against the Nets should prove the capability of Pat Riley to lead this team to victory in the playoffs.  Rebounds and the play of Dwyane Wade will make the difference for Miami against the Pistons.  If Shaq is healthy (if he plays, I consider him healthy) and Wade can hit jump shots and penetrate off the dribble like he usually does, Detroit will have a difficult time shutting down both of them.

            I believe basketball games can be largely won inside the paint.  Many times the difference between a close game and a blowout is the difference between each team's points scored in the paint.  The games in this series will be no different.  While we could see a repeat of last year's thrilling seven-game series, the Pistons have not made the finals without Larry Brown as coach since 1990, and his absence will finally be realized against the Heat. Miami indeed has a clear advantage inside, and they will seize upon this to take rebounds away from the Pistons.  Detroit will counter with stifling defense and productive jump shooting, but in the end, the Pistons will not be consistent enough to win four games in this series.  Pat Riley, unlike Cavs coach Mike Brown, has a good enough team and a wealth of knowledge to exploit these inconsistencies to his team's advantage.

And yes, The Diesel will make his return to the NBA finals. 

Can you say "Shaq-Fu"?

Miami Wins in Six Games