Its Memorial Day, and thus the first major milestone of the Major League Baseball season.

Since 1968, 53% of teams leading their divisions on Memorial Day went on to win them.

Compare that to more than 80% of teams who were leading their divisions on Labor Day, and it's practically useless to use today's standings to gauge October's pennant contenders.

But there's no reason we can't try.  So, without further ado, here's a quick look at the contenders and the pretenders through the first third of the major-league season.  This installment will focus on the American League, the next on the National League.

American League East

Division Leader-Boston Red Sox

Second Place-New York Yankees

In the Hunt-Toronto Blue Jays

Will this finally be the season the Red Sox get crowned division champions?  Curt Schilling is back and red-hot with eight wins already and 65 strikeouts.  Combine that with the play of Manny Ramírez, who seems to be heating up with the weather as usual, and the Red Sox are in good shape right now.  Speedy run scorer Coco Crisp is back from a finger injury, David Ortiz is, well, David Ortiz, and the BoSox have the fifth best offense and fourth best (scoring) defense in the American League.

So what could be the problem with all that?  Red Sox nation should know by now to always check their rearview mirror for those damn Yankees.  The Bronx Bombers have the best offense and third best (scoring) defense in the League, as well as only one less win than Boston as of Monday afternoon.  Randy Johnson shut down the Tigers earlier today, Gary Sheffield fights on through the pain, and New York showed they could win games without a lot of offensive production.  You'd better believe the Yankees will be there down the stretch, like they always are.

The dark horse here is Toronto.  The Blue Jays have added offensive punch with the coming of Troy Glaus, the improved play of Vernon Wells, and the emergence of Alex Rios.  However, the team also has a respectable pitching staff for once.  In addition to Roy Halladay, the presence of AJ Burnett will help things down the stretch.  Right now, closer BJ Ryan provides the team's bullpen with something it hasn't had in quite awhile: stability.  The Jays lead the Majors with 17 victories at home, and the first rule to success in baseball is being able to protect your own house.  Other than a Yankees or Red Sox fan, who wouldn't want to see these guys turn the division on its head?

Projections

Division Champion-Yankees (it's just destiny)

Second Place-Red Sox (good luck in the wild-card race)

American League Central

Division Leader-Detroit Tigers

Second Place-Chicago White Sox

As of Saturday, the Detroit Tigers were 20 games over .500... yeah, and the gas station by my house charges $.50 per gallon.  All kidding aside, the Tigers actually are in first place, and now it's time to play the "What's the Reason for the (Sudden) Turnaround?"  Game: is it

a ) Manager Jim Leyland

b) Veteran pitcher Kenny Rogers

c) The return of Todd Jones

d) A healthy Magglio Ordonez

If you answered C., you'd be dead wrong, but it's hard to argue with any of the other reasons (no disrespect to Todd Jones, but even tigers hall of fame broadcaster  Ernie Harwell dubbed him the "Roller Coaster").  This team has allowed the fewest runs in all of baseball.  Please, take a moment to let this information sink in... .  If you still can't believe it, don't.  The pitching staff is good and improved, and the lineup is loaded with versatile athletes who are almost all capable of hitting home runs.  But don't expect this team to be around in October, and please don't tell me they'll win the division.  A good manager makes a difference, but the Tiger lineup just doesn't have the consistency to contend with the best down the stretch.  Case in point-Sunday's game against Cleveland and Monday's game against the Yankees.  Furthermore, pitchers like Nate Robertson are clearly playing above their heads, and I'm betting Todd Jones doesn't finish the year as the closer.  Fernando Rodney is too good not to have the job.

If one thing brings down the White Sox, it's going to be Ozzie Guillen.  This team is functioning on all cylinders right now with the second-best record in the American League, yet Ozzie apparently was so scared by the Tigers, that he decided to rip his team over the weekend in the press, saying that he's more than willing to bench his best players if they aren't playing well.  Why is he saying anything?  Jermaine Dye and Tadahito Iguchi have never been better, Konerko and Thome are playing well, and pitching has been lights out (the ChiSox have the second-best defense in the league).  Just let them keep playing, and soon enough they'll be in first place.  I'm still surprised a team managed by that guy won the World Series, but I guess that says a lot about the players.

Projections

Division Champion-Chicago White Sox (no question here)

Second Place-Detroit Tigers (better pitching and manager than Cleveland, wild card?)

American League West

Division Leader-Texas Rangers

Second Place-Oakland Athletics

In the Hunt-Seattle, LA Angels

Of all the division leaders, the Rangers have the smallest differential of runs for/against.  They also have a losing record at home, as does everyone else in the division.  Although the Rangers infield was possibly the best in the majors last season offensively, shortstop Michael Young isn't himself at the plate, third baseman Hank Blalock can't hit on the road, and All-Star first baseman Mark Teixeira can't seem to find that magic swing he had last season.  Couple that with their lack of dependable pitching (Kevin Millwood is not dependable in his home ballpark), and you've got the recipe for a quick return to normalcy.

Oakland has some talented hitters such as Mark Ellis and Dan Johnson who should eventually find their swings, in addition to Eric Chávez and Nick Swisher, who already have.  The early June return of pitching ace Rich Harden should catapult this team into first place, but watch out for the Anaheim-I mean, Los Angeles-Angels down the stretch.  Although their offense is terrible, once Bartolo Colon returns from injury the pitching staff should carry this team and generate some more wins.  Also, don't count out any team that has a healthy Vladimir Guerrero in the outfield.

Projections

Division Champion-Oakland Athletics (great but underappreciated depth and balance)

Second Place-LA Angels (great pitching only goes so far...)

According to the above scenario, none of the current AL division leaders would win their division.  I still see the Red Sox getting the wild-card, though I do think the Tigers (and perhaps even the Blue Jays) will be in the race until the end.

Check back soon for the National League.