First of all, congratulations to the Detroit Pistons on their Game 7 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers in a series that was far too close for comfort.  Clearly Cleveland lacked the composure (which comes with playoff experience) to finish off the defending Eastern Conference champions, and the Pistons players played with undaunted tenacity and urgency in that final game to ensure victory.

However, a seven-game series against the Cavs doesn't bode well for a Pistons team that should have taken care of business in four or five games.  Detroit was, to say the least, inconsistent throughout the series, winning the first two games only to drop three straight but regain their edge to win the final two.  This sort of "stop and go driving" is something that a playoff contender can simply not allow to happen if they wish to succeed.  Picking and choosing games to show up for will not suffice for the Pistons if they wish to defeat the Miami Heat.

Overall Matchup

            At a glance, this series is Shaq and Dwyane Wade against that guy who wears the face mask, the guy with the fro, and that really good point guard.  It still seems that the most famous Piston nationally is Rasheed Wallace (and that's largely because of his troubled history with Portland and his playoff "guaran-'Sheeds" with the Pistons) even though four of Detroit's five starters made the All-Star team this year and Chauncey Billups finished in the top five in MVP voting.  Locally, the Pistons starting five are revered and known by all, even many who don't consider themselves basketball fans.  But the fact remains that this is still virtually a team of role players with no single definitive offensive leader.  Nationally, while the Pistons have grown in popularity as a team, their roster remains somewhat obscure to the casual fan, or at least the sports media.  Just turn on ESPN, and chances are you might see a SportsCenter segment on Shaq, the SportsCenter commercial with Dwyane Wade, or even a feature on Pat Riley's triumphs in the face of negative publicity he received after taking over as coach of the Heat once again.  But Miami is not even the best team in the Eastern conference.  The Detroit Pistons had the best record, and have won the conference two straight years.  Yet they remain an afterthought in the eyes of the national basketball media.

            Obviously this is an excellent matchup.  No team in basketball has a more balanced starting five, in terms of striking a harmony between offense and defense, than the Detroit Pistons.  However, one would be hard-pressed to find a better 1-2 punch in the league then Wade and Shaq.  Both teams also are relatively deep on the bench, but I still give the Pistons a slight edge in that department (Hunter, Delk, McDyess, etc.).

            Miami will need to exploit their definite advantage on the glass and under the basket.  Shaq, Alonzo Mourning, and Udonis Haslem must outmuscle Detroit inside, and be relentless in guarding under the basket on the defensive end.  Also, Dwyane Wade is an extremely powerful weapon for driving to the basket, and he should help draw fouls and of course score plenty of points in this series.

            For the Pistons, the key to this series lies in their perimeter shooting.  When the Pistons make threes, they almost always win.  When the threes don't fall, Detroit tends to lose their ability to do anything productive offensively.  Making two-point jump shots are also crucial for the Pistons.  Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, and Rasheed Wallace must have good shot selection, and not throw up ill-advised jumpers in the face of two or three defenders.  Detroit's inside game is not very effective, and as a team their ability to drive to the basket, while good, is limited.  Therefore, good ballhandling and outside shooting should be used to create holes in Miami's defense that will allow the Pistons to penetrate inside.  Defensively, Detroit should be able to limit Miami's scoring opportunities.  Ben Wallace needs to be on top of his game, which he has been.  The key is preventing the Heat from getting too many offensive rebounds.  Hack-a-Shaq is never a bad option if all else fails.

Coaching Matchup

            What can I say about this?  You might have read my last post about Flip Saunders and his unproven playoff coaching abilities.  Well, I still feel they are unproven.  After all, the Cavs were an inexperienced playoff team with a very inexperienced coach, and I feel that largely it was the Pistons players who finally decided to retake control and win that series.

            In the conference finals, Detroit meets the Miami Heat, a battle tested team led by basketball coaching legend Pat Riley.  This is a team that, unlike the Cavs, would probably not have lost the final two games of a series in which they had led three games to two.  This is a coach who has won multiple NBA championships and coached the likes of Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and James Worthy.  Riley will dissect Detroit's strategies, and he will preside over his team with the utmost wisdom, competence, stamina, and precision.  The man is a consummate perfectionist.  He would not accept from his own players the arbitrary shifts of effort exhibited by the Pistons against the Cavs, and will certainly seize any opportunity to strike Detroit viciously in a moment of perceived weakness.

            Fundamentally, I don't believe Flip Saunders is capable of out-coaching Riley under any circumstance.  The Piston players can still win the series for the team, but if things come down to coaching, the absence of Larry Brown (see my last post) will come back to haunt them.

Predictions

            In this series, the Pistons cannot afford to take any games off in the long-range jump shot department.  When those shots fall, Detroit tends to control the tempo and claim victory.  In the playoffs thus far, the Pistons have not shown the ability to win games in which they are shooting poorly from beyond the arc or from the field in general.  They have not been able to get themselves out of the ruts created by missed shots and playing from behind.  This can be attributed to inferior playoff coaching-the largely unproven Flip Saunders instead of the Hall of Famer Larry Brown.  Coaches should be able to affect the attitudes of their players, and we'll see if Saunders can establish himself as a good postseason strategist as this conference final plays out.

            Conversely, the Miami Heat took care of business against the New Jersey Nets, and although the games were competitive, it only took them five games to win the series.  Considering this Heat team seems more lightly regarded than last year's, their show of power against the Nets should prove the capability of Pat Riley to lead this team to victory in the playoffs.  Rebounds and the play of Dwyane Wade will make the difference for Miami against the Pistons.  If Shaq is healthy (if he plays, I consider him healthy) and Wade can hit jump shots and penetrate off the dribble like he usually does, Detroit will have a difficult time shutting down both of them.

            I believe basketball games can be largely won inside the paint.  Many times the difference between a close game and a blowout is the difference between each team's points scored in the paint.  The games in this series will be no different.  While we could see a repeat of last year's thrilling seven-game series, the Pistons have not made the finals without Larry Brown as coach since 1990, and his absence will finally be realized against the Heat. Miami indeed has a clear advantage inside, and they will seize upon this to take rebounds away from the Pistons.  Detroit will counter with stifling defense and productive jump shooting, but in the end, the Pistons will not be consistent enough to win four games in this series.  Pat Riley, unlike Cavs coach Mike Brown, has a good enough team and a wealth of knowledge to exploit these inconsistencies to his team's advantage.

And yes, The Diesel will make his return to the NBA finals. 

Can you say "Shaq-Fu"?

Miami Wins in Six Games

            Talk about the wheels falling off.  Even a return to the Palace of Auburn Hills couldn't help the dumbfounded Detroit Pistons as they lost their third consecutive game to His Royal Airness Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

            Indeed, anyone who watched games 3-5 of the series was a witness, not only to the valiant play of the Chosen One, but also to the sheer incompetence of the veteran guided and defensive oriented basketball team that everyone thought had a free pass to the NBA finals, or at least the conference finals.

            True, Rasheed Wallace did injure his ankle during game four, making him ineffective the rest of the night, but he is far from being the centerpiece of the Pistons roster.  Argue about the calls and that obnoxious Anderson Varejao guy all you want, but the fact is Detroit didn't deserve to win any of the past three games.

            The Pistons lack focus.  I know it sounds ridiculous, especially for a team that has been so composed throughout the season and the past two or three seasons.  But they clearly underestimated the Cavaliers after game two.  The cause is not so simple.  Detroit had every chance to win each game they have lost in this series, yet couldn't get over the proverbial hump when the game was close down the stretch.

            Cavaliers coach Mike Brown, who appeared to be completely out of his element in the first two games, made some brilliant adjustments to his strategy and rotation, which I think partially entailed just giving Lebron the damn ball more often.  But Lebron has a great, yet underrated team around him, and it's these key role players (i.e. Donyell Marshall, Zydrunas Ilglauskas, Anderson Varejao etc.) that have enabled Cleveland to bury the dagger in each victory.

            Conversely, Pistons coach Flip Saunders has clearly not made the necessary adjustments to respond to the Cavaliers.  Although Saunders was the most sought after coaching commodity in the off-season, and although he probably has more experience than Mike Brown, Saunders was largely unsuccessful in Minnesota, and one must wonder how good of a coach he really is.

It did not exactly take brilliant coaching to guide the Pistons to their regular-season success this past year.  Coaches show what they're worth in the playoffs, and Saunders' playoff performances in Minnesota were truly horrendous.  More than once it seemed that the Timberwolves might break through for a finals run.  And each time they failed, everyone blamed the team's chemistry, injuries, or lack of strong defense.

            Nobody ever blamed Flip.  Although he could not have been expected to be wildly successful with the Timberwolves, Saunders failed to even exceed expectations.  Exceeding expectations is what great coaching is all about.  It's what the Pistons did two years ago against the Lakers in the finals, and even against San Antonio last year.  It's what the New York Knicks did in 1999 when they made the finals as an eight seed.  It's how the Chicago Bulls and Michael Jordan initially burst deep into the playoffs.  But it's not something Flip Saunders has ever done. 

            So what did the Pistons have last year that they don't have this year?  The roster is actually improved, with the starting five intact and several potent swingmen and role players coming off the bench.  Yet somehow the team seems less motivated; less focused on winning the championship.

            Wait a minute!  Didn't the Pistons have a different coach last year?  That's right, it was Hall of Famer Larry Brown, the same man who helped the Pistons defeat the heavily favored Los Angeles Lakers in the 2004 NBA finals and very nearly helped them beat the favored San Antonio Spurs in game seven of the finals last season.

            For all the grief Larry Brown caused with his health issues and seemingly endless flirtations with other teams, under him the Pistons did something they could not do with a coach like Rick Carlisle (who is kind of like a younger version of Flip Saunders): beat the Pacers and go to the NBA finals.  But Larry didn't stop there.  In the face of seemingly insurmountable odds, the Pistons proceeded to absolutely manhandle a Los Angeles Lakers team that was supposed to easily win the series in four or five games.  Unarguably, there are only a few coaches in history that could have pulled off that feat.

            This is not to say the Pistons don't have talent.  But for a team that lacks a superstar to carry it on its back, Larry Brown's strict offensive rotation and stifling defensive schemes, as well as his guard oriented play, are really the only things conducive to success deep in the postseason, let alone the second round.

            It seems that Flip is too laid-back; he may be employing strategies that work better on teams where there is a clear offensive MVP.  Even San Antonio, which is the only team in basketball that rivals the Pistons in terms of scoring and defensive balance, clearly has one player (Tim Duncan) capable of carrying the team on his shoulders when things aren't going well.

            People underestimate the importance of a consistent rotation, and Larry Brown drew criticism for not being flexible during games or taking chances by playing young players.  But these things are what wins in the playoffs; there are no points for improvisation or flashiness.  Just ask the Dallas Mavericks or the Phoenix Suns about that.  And clearly the Pistons were a far better playoff team with Larry Brown at the helm.  Say all you want about his personality, but his performance in just a couple of years with the Pistons speaks for itself.

            So as I watch Lebron James and the Cavaliers blaze a new path similar to the one Michael Jordan and the Bulls traveled in the late 80s when they first became a perennial playoff team, I think of how I heard many people say that Larry Brown would wish he had stayed with the Pistons this season and how sorry he would be for taking the Knicks job.

            But it should be the Pistons and their fans who are sorry.  There is simply no way that a team like the Pistons coached by Larry Brown would lose three games in a row to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Larry made the 76ers look good when he coached there, and that was a veritable black hole for coaching.  He made the Lakers (coached by Phil Jackson no less) look like foolish amateurs against the Pistons in the 2004 finals.  So as the Pistons flounder against the upstart Cavaliers, and as the tide of popular opinion continues to turn against them in favor of Lebron James and his team, the prospect of a second NBA championship in three years for detroit may only exist in a parallel universe somewhere where Larry Brown is still their coach.