It's the day after Memorial Day, and thus one day past the first major milestone of the Major League Baseball season.

Since 1968, 53% of teams leading their divisions on Memorial Day went on to win them.

Compare that to more than 80% of teams who were leading their divisions on Labor Day, and it's practically useless to use today's standings to gauge October's pennant contenders.

The first installment focused on the American League, so today the spotlight is on the National League.  Without further delay, here's a look at the contenders and pretenders in the NL as of Memorial Day.

National League East

Division Leader-New York Mets

Second Place-Atlanta Braves

In the Hunt-Philadelphia Phillies

The Mighty Mets are back!  General Manager Omar Minaya put together a spectacular and incredibly balanced roster of talented pitchers and hitters, and his hard work in the off-season now appears to be paying dividends, guided by the steady managerial hand of Willie Randolph.  What makes the Mets special is their blend of key free-agent acquisitions and home-grown talent.  Carlos Beltran and Delgado may both have double-digit home runs and at least 35 RBI, but David Wright and José Reyes are not far behind.  Reyes has been exceptional for a shortstop, leading the team with 39 runs and actually driving in 27 while hitting six home runs-rather hefty power numbers for his position.  Don't think the offense guides this team though.  The Mets are only eighth in the National League in runs scored, but tied for second in runs against.  The improved gloves and continuing development of Wright and Reyes in the infield have made this team a joy to watch.  Pedro Martínez and Tom Glavine have been spectacular on the hill, while Steve Trachsel has been his dependable veteran self.  The Mets finally have a closer in Billy Wagner who can put fear into opponents.  Also, Minaya made a brilliant trade to acquire Orlando Hernandez from the Diamondbacks for the all too expendable Jorge Julio.  So much for all the fuss about the back end of the rotation.

This division is all too much like its American League counterpart.  The Braves haunt the Mets as the Yankees do the Red Sox, and as a Mets fan myself, I personally know better than to think based on what I've seen thus far that this will be the year the Mets take the division.  Atlanta is not so good as it has been in the past, but an infusion of young hitting talent led by Jeff Francoeur coupled with shrewd and wily manager Bobby Cox make this a dangerous team to deal with under any circumstance.  However, closer Chris Reitsma is no legitimate save machine, and he's bound to have many more rocky outings like the one on Sunday against the Cubs.  The pitching staff has been inconsistent at best, and key hitters such as Chipper Jones and Marcus Giles are always injury risks.  Those factors should eventually push the Braves out of the pennant race, though with their offense they're bound to go down swinging (bad pun intended).

In the end, the Phillies will be the team to challenge the Mets.  Although their team ERA is a bit high, Philadelphia's staff as a whole strikes out a whole lot of hitters-something that is important for controlling game tempo.  If Cole Hamels can return from injury and stay healthy, and if this team can protect their house (they have a losing record at home as of Monday) the Phils will be there down the stretch.  Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, and Bob Abreu are all amazing hitters and Jimmy Rollins is a world-class shortstop.  The Mets will have a lot on their hands between Atlanta and Philly come August and September.

Projections

Division champion-Mets (already shown ability to win close games with depth and balance)

Second Place-Phillies (this team would have no excuse for not making the postseason)

National League Central

Division Leader-St. Louis Cardinals (who else?)

Second Place-Cincinnati Reds

In the Hunt-Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros

Albert Pujols, Albert Pujols, Albert Pujols, Albert Pujols... did I say Albert Pujols?  Oh yeah, Chris Carpenter has been OK too on the mound.  This is clearly another division champion Cardinals team hands down.  Scott Rolen is back and healthy, and this franchise is looking more and more like the Evil Empire of the National League.  Will they be challenged?  No.  At least not for the division lead.  Moving on...

What's more surprising-the fact that the Reds are in second place or that they've scored more runs than they've allowed?  We're not going to answer that.  The departure of the not so mighty (Sean) Casey strangely is bringing joy to Cincinnati, but this team's success thus far has got to be accredited to manager Jerry Narron, pitchers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, and the intense play of the entire offense (led, of course, by Ken Griffey Jr.).  But will it last?  While this team's offense is better and more consistent in the long run than other upstarts like the Detroit Tigers, Narron is no Jim Leyland in terms of experience and an unknown in terms of managerial ability down the stretch.  This team has been better with him, but one must wonder about whether the pitching staff can continue to overachieve as they have, and the bullpen in particular is a concern with potential instability at closer.  Anything can happen, but probably no playoffs this year for the Reds.

As for Houston and Milwaukee, the Astros are too old and the division too brutal for them to contend for the postseason.   Roger Clemens is coming back, but wait until the offense wins him some games-then we'll talk.  Milwaukee hasn't been in a race anytime recently, and probably shouldn't be taken seriously at this point.  The potential is there for some success with Carlos Lee, Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, and the pitching staff (Davis, Sheets, Capuano etc.) but the consistency isn't.

Projections

Division Champion-Cardinals (Philly vs. St. Louis would make a great NLDS)

Second Place-Reds (distant second, but still a good team)

National League West

Division Leader-Arizona Diamondbacks

Second Place-LA Dodgers

In the Hunt-Everyone

This looks familiar, circa the Bob Brenly era of several years ago.  The D-Backs have returned to the top of their division, only to be closely followed by... the Dodgers?  Arizona is enjoying quiet success, with a solid core of hitters highlighted by Chad Tracy and a pitching staff that is tied for second in the league in runs against.  But closer José Valverde has been struggling recently, and this team in general seems to be very much an upstart, as Brandon Webb may or may not keep posting his electrifying numbers as the team's ace pitcher.

What could be exciting about the Dodgers?  This is a team that bored everyone half to death last year with its anemic offense and a miserable inability to generate runs to support its generally good pitching staff.  Shockingly, the Dodgers have the most runs scored in the National League to date, in addition to the fourth fewest runs allowed.  Such an offense has enabled pitchers like Derek Lowe and Brad Penny to rekindle their careers and actually earn the money LA paid to sign them.  While Lowe could use a few more wins, you can't really blame the offense.  These hitters are making Brett Tomko look like a good option!  This is the kind of team that could be around in October.  They still fly relatively under the radar, and it may or may not be a dogfight to win the division.  At any rate, the Dodgers are probably a few wins better than even their fine record shows, and should be there in late September.

As for the Padres, Giants, and Rockies, it's anyone's guess which, if any, will emerge to challenge for the division lead.  I tend to think Colorado or San Francisco.  The Giants have winning records on the road and at home (just barely), and have scored more runs than they have surrendered.  Rockies pitchers look better this year than in years past (Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis), but the offense needs to pick up the pace away from home.

Projections

Division Champion-Dodgers (this team could run with the Cardinals)

Second Place-Arizona Diamondbacks (by default; the Giants are too old)

The Houston Astros could make a late-season run like they did last year, but the likelihood is slim unless the bullpen and offense get more consistent, even with the return of The Rocket.  The Philadelphia Phillies should win the wild-card, setting up a great playoff matchup with either the Dodgers or Cardinals (probably St. Louis). 

If my projections hold true, only one third of the current division leaders would hang on to win the division-20 percentage points less than the average.  But the average is just that-an average.  Some years all but one or two teams might hold on.

There's a lot of games left to be played, and a lot of surprises still to come, but regardless, it should be a very special and exciting summer and autumn in the Major Leagues.

Its Memorial Day, and thus the first major milestone of the Major League Baseball season.

Since 1968, 53% of teams leading their divisions on Memorial Day went on to win them.

Compare that to more than 80% of teams who were leading their divisions on Labor Day, and it's practically useless to use today's standings to gauge October's pennant contenders.

But there's no reason we can't try.  So, without further ado, here's a quick look at the contenders and the pretenders through the first third of the major-league season.  This installment will focus on the American League, the next on the National League.

American League East

Division Leader-Boston Red Sox

Second Place-New York Yankees

In the Hunt-Toronto Blue Jays

Will this finally be the season the Red Sox get crowned division champions?  Curt Schilling is back and red-hot with eight wins already and 65 strikeouts.  Combine that with the play of Manny Ramírez, who seems to be heating up with the weather as usual, and the Red Sox are in good shape right now.  Speedy run scorer Coco Crisp is back from a finger injury, David Ortiz is, well, David Ortiz, and the BoSox have the fifth best offense and fourth best (scoring) defense in the American League.

So what could be the problem with all that?  Red Sox nation should know by now to always check their rearview mirror for those damn Yankees.  The Bronx Bombers have the best offense and third best (scoring) defense in the League, as well as only one less win than Boston as of Monday afternoon.  Randy Johnson shut down the Tigers earlier today, Gary Sheffield fights on through the pain, and New York showed they could win games without a lot of offensive production.  You'd better believe the Yankees will be there down the stretch, like they always are.

The dark horse here is Toronto.  The Blue Jays have added offensive punch with the coming of Troy Glaus, the improved play of Vernon Wells, and the emergence of Alex Rios.  However, the team also has a respectable pitching staff for once.  In addition to Roy Halladay, the presence of AJ Burnett will help things down the stretch.  Right now, closer BJ Ryan provides the team's bullpen with something it hasn't had in quite awhile: stability.  The Jays lead the Majors with 17 victories at home, and the first rule to success in baseball is being able to protect your own house.  Other than a Yankees or Red Sox fan, who wouldn't want to see these guys turn the division on its head?

Projections

Division Champion-Yankees (it's just destiny)

Second Place-Red Sox (good luck in the wild-card race)

American League Central

Division Leader-Detroit Tigers

Second Place-Chicago White Sox

As of Saturday, the Detroit Tigers were 20 games over .500... yeah, and the gas station by my house charges $.50 per gallon.  All kidding aside, the Tigers actually are in first place, and now it's time to play the "What's the Reason for the (Sudden) Turnaround?"  Game: is it

a ) Manager Jim Leyland

b) Veteran pitcher Kenny Rogers

c) The return of Todd Jones

d) A healthy Magglio Ordonez

If you answered C., you'd be dead wrong, but it's hard to argue with any of the other reasons (no disrespect to Todd Jones, but even tigers hall of fame broadcaster  Ernie Harwell dubbed him the "Roller Coaster").  This team has allowed the fewest runs in all of baseball.  Please, take a moment to let this information sink in... .  If you still can't believe it, don't.  The pitching staff is good and improved, and the lineup is loaded with versatile athletes who are almost all capable of hitting home runs.  But don't expect this team to be around in October, and please don't tell me they'll win the division.  A good manager makes a difference, but the Tiger lineup just doesn't have the consistency to contend with the best down the stretch.  Case in point-Sunday's game against Cleveland and Monday's game against the Yankees.  Furthermore, pitchers like Nate Robertson are clearly playing above their heads, and I'm betting Todd Jones doesn't finish the year as the closer.  Fernando Rodney is too good not to have the job.

If one thing brings down the White Sox, it's going to be Ozzie Guillen.  This team is functioning on all cylinders right now with the second-best record in the American League, yet Ozzie apparently was so scared by the Tigers, that he decided to rip his team over the weekend in the press, saying that he's more than willing to bench his best players if they aren't playing well.  Why is he saying anything?  Jermaine Dye and Tadahito Iguchi have never been better, Konerko and Thome are playing well, and pitching has been lights out (the ChiSox have the second-best defense in the league).  Just let them keep playing, and soon enough they'll be in first place.  I'm still surprised a team managed by that guy won the World Series, but I guess that says a lot about the players.

Projections

Division Champion-Chicago White Sox (no question here)

Second Place-Detroit Tigers (better pitching and manager than Cleveland, wild card?)

American League West

Division Leader-Texas Rangers

Second Place-Oakland Athletics

In the Hunt-Seattle, LA Angels

Of all the division leaders, the Rangers have the smallest differential of runs for/against.  They also have a losing record at home, as does everyone else in the division.  Although the Rangers infield was possibly the best in the majors last season offensively, shortstop Michael Young isn't himself at the plate, third baseman Hank Blalock can't hit on the road, and All-Star first baseman Mark Teixeira can't seem to find that magic swing he had last season.  Couple that with their lack of dependable pitching (Kevin Millwood is not dependable in his home ballpark), and you've got the recipe for a quick return to normalcy.

Oakland has some talented hitters such as Mark Ellis and Dan Johnson who should eventually find their swings, in addition to Eric Chávez and Nick Swisher, who already have.  The early June return of pitching ace Rich Harden should catapult this team into first place, but watch out for the Anaheim-I mean, Los Angeles-Angels down the stretch.  Although their offense is terrible, once Bartolo Colon returns from injury the pitching staff should carry this team and generate some more wins.  Also, don't count out any team that has a healthy Vladimir Guerrero in the outfield.

Projections

Division Champion-Oakland Athletics (great but underappreciated depth and balance)

Second Place-LA Angels (great pitching only goes so far...)

According to the above scenario, none of the current AL division leaders would win their division.  I still see the Red Sox getting the wild-card, though I do think the Tigers (and perhaps even the Blue Jays) will be in the race until the end.

Check back soon for the National League.

            Do professional athletes play for the love of the game, or is it all just about the money?

            This question is the subject of a continuous and timeless debate in the sports world about the sincerity of the athletic endeavors of not only the most highly paid professionals, but also the average and more mediocre players.

Putting aside whether or not these athletes actually deserve the amount of money they make, one facet that remains largely unexplored is this question: How many veteran professional athletes actually still enjoy what they're doing?  Studies suggest most Americans don't necessarily enjoy what they do for a living. Who knows how many athletes feel that way? 

If one does not truly enjoy one's work, is there any shame in simply walking away to pursue something else in life?  Veteran athletes, unlike many of us, have a unique ability to do this because of the large amounts of money they have already made, yet great players are often ridiculed, smeared, and even stigmatized for retiring while still in their prime.  Today, I will comment on the early and often scorned retirement of Barry Sanders from the NFL, and explain why his action was really a noble, sincere, and self preserving choice.

            As we have seen in the past from athletes such as Barry Sanders and Jim Brown, who both retired in their prime, as well as from athletes such as Michael Jordan and Roger Clemens, who both retired (or will retire) multiple times after long careers, it takes a lot of courage for a person to walk away from a game he or she loves.  However, it takes the most courage to walk away in one's prime, as Sanders and Brown both did.  Both were true to themselves and who they were; neither was getting the same enjoyment from playing football that made him become a professional football player to begin with, for whatever reason. 

Yet people still ask why: Why did Barry Sanders retire one season short of breaking the all-time rushing record?  Why did Jim Brown, who was arguably better than any running back who came before him, just suddenly decide that he no longer wanted to play professional football?  They must not have loved the game anymore.  Barry Sanders must have been just playing for the money.

            To draw such conclusions is to ignore an essential paradox: Barry Sanders retired from football because he loved football.  That's right.  It wasn't just about contracts, losing teams, bad coaching, or incompetent front office executives.  Yes, those things certainly made football less enjoyable for Barry, but in the end, I contend he retired to preserve his love for the game.

            After 10 seasons with Detroit, Sanders had done just about everything a running back can do in a career, short of winning the Super Bowl and claiming the all-time rushing title.  He led the NFL in rushing four times, rushed for over 1500 yards in a season an NFL-record 5 times, and rushed for over 100 yards in the final 14 games of 1997 (another NFL record), becoming only the third player in NFL history to reach 2000 rushing yards in a season.

            But off the field, a tumultuous storm was swirling for Barry.  Although they selected Sanders with the third pick in the 1989 NFL draft, the Lions had failed for nearly a decade to build a Super Bowl caliber team around him.  In spite of this, the front office and even the coaching staff still expected him to carry the team on his back every Sunday and, along with the local media, seemed to generally blame him (besides the quarterback Rodney Peete or later Scott Mitchell) when things weren't going well.  Like any great player in that stage of his career who had never won a championship might do, Sanders inquired after the 1998 season about being traded to another team, an offer which was subsequently refused and even ridiculed by the Lions brass.

            Yes, the Lions had signed Barry Sanders two years before to a $35 million 6-year contract extension with an $11 million signing bonus, a veritable franchise player tag.  Such an extension should have reflected a commitment from the front office to give their legendary running back the players his team needed to play deep into January.  However, this was not happening as of 1998 in Detroit; on the contrary, the Lions were actually getting worse.

            Not being granted a release from his contract or consulted about any type of trade, Barry began to feel the effects of being constantly underappreciated by grumbling fans and media.  The tide of popular opinion began to turn against the Lions running back as his team's front office waged a public relations war against him.  There was no way Barry Sanders could enjoy playing the game he loved in such an environment.  He was faced with a life-changing decision: Walk away because he could no longer enjoy doing what he loved, or keep playing for the money.  Eventually, he announced his retirement on July 28, 1999.

            This is where things come full circle.  To play without enjoyment is to play only for the money, and thus to risk compromising one's passion for the sport.  Barry Sanders did the right thing for himself; he did not want to lose his love of football by resentfully going through the motions without enthusiasm or passion. Ask any NFL player why he first loved football, and the answer will probably be something like: "Because it was fun."  For most, it is still fun.  But if that ever changes, a player must reassess the sincerity of his motives, and whether or not he wants things to really be all about the money.  

It is anyone's guess how many professional athletes-famous, average, or mediocre-no longer draw satisfaction from their work.  However, one certainty is that despite any possible public resentment or ridicule, it is truly courageous and sincere for a famous athlete to admit in the midst of his prime that he no longer wishes to play his sport professionally.  As for the reasons, such decisions are personal, and should remain personal unless disclosed by the individual who harbors them. 

Since the average veteran athlete has already made a great deal of money in his career at a young age, he has the opportunity to retire and do something else if he so chooses.  If a player is in a situation where he can no longer draw enjoyment from the sport he plays, why should he be criticized for exercising this advantage that most people do not have?

            After all, with the amount of money NFL tickets cost and the amount of time it takes to build a winning team, nobody wants to cheer for players on their favorite team who don't even want to be there.

First of all, congratulations to the Detroit Pistons on their Game 7 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers in a series that was far too close for comfort.  Clearly Cleveland lacked the composure (which comes with playoff experience) to finish off the defending Eastern Conference champions, and the Pistons players played with undaunted tenacity and urgency in that final game to ensure victory.

However, a seven-game series against the Cavs doesn't bode well for a Pistons team that should have taken care of business in four or five games.  Detroit was, to say the least, inconsistent throughout the series, winning the first two games only to drop three straight but regain their edge to win the final two.  This sort of "stop and go driving" is something that a playoff contender can simply not allow to happen if they wish to succeed.  Picking and choosing games to show up for will not suffice for the Pistons if they wish to defeat the Miami Heat.

Overall Matchup

            At a glance, this series is Shaq and Dwyane Wade against that guy who wears the face mask, the guy with the fro, and that really good point guard.  It still seems that the most famous Piston nationally is Rasheed Wallace (and that's largely because of his troubled history with Portland and his playoff "guaran-'Sheeds" with the Pistons) even though four of Detroit's five starters made the All-Star team this year and Chauncey Billups finished in the top five in MVP voting.  Locally, the Pistons starting five are revered and known by all, even many who don't consider themselves basketball fans.  But the fact remains that this is still virtually a team of role players with no single definitive offensive leader.  Nationally, while the Pistons have grown in popularity as a team, their roster remains somewhat obscure to the casual fan, or at least the sports media.  Just turn on ESPN, and chances are you might see a SportsCenter segment on Shaq, the SportsCenter commercial with Dwyane Wade, or even a feature on Pat Riley's triumphs in the face of negative publicity he received after taking over as coach of the Heat once again.  But Miami is not even the best team in the Eastern conference.  The Detroit Pistons had the best record, and have won the conference two straight years.  Yet they remain an afterthought in the eyes of the national basketball media.

            Obviously this is an excellent matchup.  No team in basketball has a more balanced starting five, in terms of striking a harmony between offense and defense, than the Detroit Pistons.  However, one would be hard-pressed to find a better 1-2 punch in the league then Wade and Shaq.  Both teams also are relatively deep on the bench, but I still give the Pistons a slight edge in that department (Hunter, Delk, McDyess, etc.).

            Miami will need to exploit their definite advantage on the glass and under the basket.  Shaq, Alonzo Mourning, and Udonis Haslem must outmuscle Detroit inside, and be relentless in guarding under the basket on the defensive end.  Also, Dwyane Wade is an extremely powerful weapon for driving to the basket, and he should help draw fouls and of course score plenty of points in this series.

            For the Pistons, the key to this series lies in their perimeter shooting.  When the Pistons make threes, they almost always win.  When the threes don't fall, Detroit tends to lose their ability to do anything productive offensively.  Making two-point jump shots are also crucial for the Pistons.  Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, and Rasheed Wallace must have good shot selection, and not throw up ill-advised jumpers in the face of two or three defenders.  Detroit's inside game is not very effective, and as a team their ability to drive to the basket, while good, is limited.  Therefore, good ballhandling and outside shooting should be used to create holes in Miami's defense that will allow the Pistons to penetrate inside.  Defensively, Detroit should be able to limit Miami's scoring opportunities.  Ben Wallace needs to be on top of his game, which he has been.  The key is preventing the Heat from getting too many offensive rebounds.  Hack-a-Shaq is never a bad option if all else fails.

Coaching Matchup

            What can I say about this?  You might have read my last post about Flip Saunders and his unproven playoff coaching abilities.  Well, I still feel they are unproven.  After all, the Cavs were an inexperienced playoff team with a very inexperienced coach, and I feel that largely it was the Pistons players who finally decided to retake control and win that series.

            In the conference finals, Detroit meets the Miami Heat, a battle tested team led by basketball coaching legend Pat Riley.  This is a team that, unlike the Cavs, would probably not have lost the final two games of a series in which they had led three games to two.  This is a coach who has won multiple NBA championships and coached the likes of Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and James Worthy.  Riley will dissect Detroit's strategies, and he will preside over his team with the utmost wisdom, competence, stamina, and precision.  The man is a consummate perfectionist.  He would not accept from his own players the arbitrary shifts of effort exhibited by the Pistons against the Cavs, and will certainly seize any opportunity to strike Detroit viciously in a moment of perceived weakness.

            Fundamentally, I don't believe Flip Saunders is capable of out-coaching Riley under any circumstance.  The Piston players can still win the series for the team, but if things come down to coaching, the absence of Larry Brown (see my last post) will come back to haunt them.

Predictions

            In this series, the Pistons cannot afford to take any games off in the long-range jump shot department.  When those shots fall, Detroit tends to control the tempo and claim victory.  In the playoffs thus far, the Pistons have not shown the ability to win games in which they are shooting poorly from beyond the arc or from the field in general.  They have not been able to get themselves out of the ruts created by missed shots and playing from behind.  This can be attributed to inferior playoff coaching-the largely unproven Flip Saunders instead of the Hall of Famer Larry Brown.  Coaches should be able to affect the attitudes of their players, and we'll see if Saunders can establish himself as a good postseason strategist as this conference final plays out.

            Conversely, the Miami Heat took care of business against the New Jersey Nets, and although the games were competitive, it only took them five games to win the series.  Considering this Heat team seems more lightly regarded than last year's, their show of power against the Nets should prove the capability of Pat Riley to lead this team to victory in the playoffs.  Rebounds and the play of Dwyane Wade will make the difference for Miami against the Pistons.  If Shaq is healthy (if he plays, I consider him healthy) and Wade can hit jump shots and penetrate off the dribble like he usually does, Detroit will have a difficult time shutting down both of them.

            I believe basketball games can be largely won inside the paint.  Many times the difference between a close game and a blowout is the difference between each team's points scored in the paint.  The games in this series will be no different.  While we could see a repeat of last year's thrilling seven-game series, the Pistons have not made the finals without Larry Brown as coach since 1990, and his absence will finally be realized against the Heat. Miami indeed has a clear advantage inside, and they will seize upon this to take rebounds away from the Pistons.  Detroit will counter with stifling defense and productive jump shooting, but in the end, the Pistons will not be consistent enough to win four games in this series.  Pat Riley, unlike Cavs coach Mike Brown, has a good enough team and a wealth of knowledge to exploit these inconsistencies to his team's advantage.

And yes, The Diesel will make his return to the NBA finals. 

Can you say "Shaq-Fu"?

Miami Wins in Six Games

            Talk about the wheels falling off.  Even a return to the Palace of Auburn Hills couldn't help the dumbfounded Detroit Pistons as they lost their third consecutive game to His Royal Airness Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

            Indeed, anyone who watched games 3-5 of the series was a witness, not only to the valiant play of the Chosen One, but also to the sheer incompetence of the veteran guided and defensive oriented basketball team that everyone thought had a free pass to the NBA finals, or at least the conference finals.

            True, Rasheed Wallace did injure his ankle during game four, making him ineffective the rest of the night, but he is far from being the centerpiece of the Pistons roster.  Argue about the calls and that obnoxious Anderson Varejao guy all you want, but the fact is Detroit didn't deserve to win any of the past three games.

            The Pistons lack focus.  I know it sounds ridiculous, especially for a team that has been so composed throughout the season and the past two or three seasons.  But they clearly underestimated the Cavaliers after game two.  The cause is not so simple.  Detroit had every chance to win each game they have lost in this series, yet couldn't get over the proverbial hump when the game was close down the stretch.

            Cavaliers coach Mike Brown, who appeared to be completely out of his element in the first two games, made some brilliant adjustments to his strategy and rotation, which I think partially entailed just giving Lebron the damn ball more often.  But Lebron has a great, yet underrated team around him, and it's these key role players (i.e. Donyell Marshall, Zydrunas Ilglauskas, Anderson Varejao etc.) that have enabled Cleveland to bury the dagger in each victory.

            Conversely, Pistons coach Flip Saunders has clearly not made the necessary adjustments to respond to the Cavaliers.  Although Saunders was the most sought after coaching commodity in the off-season, and although he probably has more experience than Mike Brown, Saunders was largely unsuccessful in Minnesota, and one must wonder how good of a coach he really is.

It did not exactly take brilliant coaching to guide the Pistons to their regular-season success this past year.  Coaches show what they're worth in the playoffs, and Saunders' playoff performances in Minnesota were truly horrendous.  More than once it seemed that the Timberwolves might break through for a finals run.  And each time they failed, everyone blamed the team's chemistry, injuries, or lack of strong defense.

            Nobody ever blamed Flip.  Although he could not have been expected to be wildly successful with the Timberwolves, Saunders failed to even exceed expectations.  Exceeding expectations is what great coaching is all about.  It's what the Pistons did two years ago against the Lakers in the finals, and even against San Antonio last year.  It's what the New York Knicks did in 1999 when they made the finals as an eight seed.  It's how the Chicago Bulls and Michael Jordan initially burst deep into the playoffs.  But it's not something Flip Saunders has ever done. 

            So what did the Pistons have last year that they don't have this year?  The roster is actually improved, with the starting five intact and several potent swingmen and role players coming off the bench.  Yet somehow the team seems less motivated; less focused on winning the championship.

            Wait a minute!  Didn't the Pistons have a different coach last year?  That's right, it was Hall of Famer Larry Brown, the same man who helped the Pistons defeat the heavily favored Los Angeles Lakers in the 2004 NBA finals and very nearly helped them beat the favored San Antonio Spurs in game seven of the finals last season.

            For all the grief Larry Brown caused with his health issues and seemingly endless flirtations with other teams, under him the Pistons did something they could not do with a coach like Rick Carlisle (who is kind of like a younger version of Flip Saunders): beat the Pacers and go to the NBA finals.  But Larry didn't stop there.  In the face of seemingly insurmountable odds, the Pistons proceeded to absolutely manhandle a Los Angeles Lakers team that was supposed to easily win the series in four or five games.  Unarguably, there are only a few coaches in history that could have pulled off that feat.

            This is not to say the Pistons don't have talent.  But for a team that lacks a superstar to carry it on its back, Larry Brown's strict offensive rotation and stifling defensive schemes, as well as his guard oriented play, are really the only things conducive to success deep in the postseason, let alone the second round.

            It seems that Flip is too laid-back; he may be employing strategies that work better on teams where there is a clear offensive MVP.  Even San Antonio, which is the only team in basketball that rivals the Pistons in terms of scoring and defensive balance, clearly has one player (Tim Duncan) capable of carrying the team on his shoulders when things aren't going well.

            People underestimate the importance of a consistent rotation, and Larry Brown drew criticism for not being flexible during games or taking chances by playing young players.  But these things are what wins in the playoffs; there are no points for improvisation or flashiness.  Just ask the Dallas Mavericks or the Phoenix Suns about that.  And clearly the Pistons were a far better playoff team with Larry Brown at the helm.  Say all you want about his personality, but his performance in just a couple of years with the Pistons speaks for itself.

            So as I watch Lebron James and the Cavaliers blaze a new path similar to the one Michael Jordan and the Bulls traveled in the late 80s when they first became a perennial playoff team, I think of how I heard many people say that Larry Brown would wish he had stayed with the Pistons this season and how sorry he would be for taking the Knicks job.

            But it should be the Pistons and their fans who are sorry.  There is simply no way that a team like the Pistons coached by Larry Brown would lose three games in a row to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Larry made the 76ers look good when he coached there, and that was a veritable black hole for coaching.  He made the Lakers (coached by Phil Jackson no less) look like foolish amateurs against the Pistons in the 2004 finals.  So as the Pistons flounder against the upstart Cavaliers, and as the tide of popular opinion continues to turn against them in favor of Lebron James and his team, the prospect of a second NBA championship in three years for detroit may only exist in a parallel universe somewhere where Larry Brown is still their coach.

            On Saturday, the Houston Texans showed us all why coaching staffs often receive too much of the blame for perennial failures on the gridiron.  In its infinite wisdom, the Houston camp selected defensive end Mario Williams, the undisputed top defensive player in the draft, over Reggie Bush, the undisputed top prospect since Barry Sanders.

            I won't pretend I know who made the decision, why it was made, or whether the new coaching staff had anything to say about it, but I will say that the front office should always be held responsible for draft picks, regardless of how much input the coaching staff may have.

            Considering Houston only won two games last season, and given Dominic Davis' history of nagging injuries, one might think the Texans would be salivating at the prospect of landing quite possibly one of the most talented football players in history, and one who could single-handedly win them at least two more games next year (and that's a conservative estimate).

            But defense wins championships, right?  Pittsburgh, New England, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay all did it with defense.  And look at the pathetic Chargers, Chiefs, and Colts: teams which have had vibrant offensive schemes for years and yet not managed to make it to the big game.  I can just see Houston's front office personnel, thinking how brilliant they are for passing up the temptation of Reggie Bush for the more "mature" defensive strategy; "we want to win Super Bowls, not just division titles," they say.

            But wait a minute.  The Texans only won two games last season.  They're a far cry from a .500 record, let alone a Super Bowl.  As much as you may want to knock the Colts for not winning the AFC title over the past six years, they have been among the NFL's best, consistently finishing atop their division and playing some very exciting playoff football again some of the best teams in the league.  It's hard not to call that successful.

            Furthermore, one outstanding defensive player, or even an entire draft crop of them, will not help Houston win more games next year to buy the new coaching staff some necessary time and patience.  Coaches are often scapegoats for buisness mistakes made by incompetent front office personnel (see Matt Millen, Detroit Lions GM).  Reggie Bush could help take some pressure off the coaches while they build the defense, while generating local excitement, fan support, and ticket sales.  

           Defense does win championships, but only as an entire unit, and that unit takes time to build.  Meanwhile, a player like Reggie is not only a great offensive asset for the future, but also a great public-relations distraction for right now, while a team like Houston is building a defense for him.  Quietly, without garnering much attention, the Texans could build a world-class defensive unit for a reasonable price without worrying about impatient fans or ownership.  Reggie Bush would steal the show.

            All that matters for Houston is winning more games each year to show improvement.  Reggie Bush would further that goal immediately, regardless of how many points the Texans allow.  Chances are they'll be able to take a stud defender next year anyway.  And as for winning division titles, I'm sure everyone in the Colts organization will tell you that's better than going 2-14, even if you lose in the playoffs every year.

            Yes, the Steelers won with defense, and without a so-called franchise running back.  But the Steelers also showed what a great defense could be built from draft picks after the first round.  And Jerome Bettis was the franchise running back.  It just took his whole career to win the Super Bowl!

            The Texans did not need to snub the greatest prospect in decades for the sake of defense.  They had the top pick in most every round, and Dominick Davis would not have been hard to trade if Reggie pushed him out of a starting job.  Instead, Houston's front office has basically dug a hole for the new coaching staff.  There's no way Mario Williams has the kind of impact next year that will actually result in the Texans giving up fewer points.  Reggie Bush could at least help them outscore some opponents.

            Now Houston is no better off (in terms of immediate winning capability) than they were at the end of last season.  André Johnson can't become the great wide receiver that he should be because he doesn't have a durable, explosive, and consistent running back to take the pressure off the one-dimensional receiving game.  David Carr was not the best of first-round picks, but he's at least good enough to get the Texans to the postseason, if given the right tools.  Right now, he only has one good receiver, in my opinion, and Dominick Davis can't be trusted as a reliable running back because of his durability issues.  He's not scaring anybody, as we saw last season when André Johnson's receiving numbers took a huge dip.

            Reggie Bush would be a force for opposing defenses to prepare for, fear, and focus on constantly, mainly because he can rush, receive, and return with unforgivable speed and agility.  David Carr and André Johnson would undoubtedly benefit, and the offense in general would not be stunted and sputtering like it was last year in the few games I happened to watch.  The result would be at least two or three more victories (maybe better) and a sense of progress for the organization.

            Instead, progress next season will be difficult to measure for the Texans.  In a year in which the top choice should have been so obvious, it's hard to imagine even the worst team in the NFL botching the pick.  The people who ran the Bengals and Browns front offices when those teams drafted the likes of Akili Smith and Tim Couch wish they could have been so lucky.  Maybe they would have been wiser, and picked Bush. 

Yes, the Houston Texans got the best defensive prospect in the draft, and may have found themselves a franchise-caliber defensive anchor for years to come.  But the real winner on Saturday was the New Orleans Saints.  If Reggie Bush even comes close to being everything he is touted as, this will go down in history as one of the great draft mishaps of all time. 

You have to love the way cities in the South take care of each other, though-not only did the city of Houston take on numerous displaced victims of Hurricane Katrina from New Orleans, but also its football team has just compensated Saints fans for all that money and aid they didn't get from the Bush Administration and FEMA after the storm.

            It's been two years since the last time playoff hockey was going on this time of year, and I can remember thinking at that time just how distraught I was with the level of play in the league, lack of parity, and all the denials about how much money certain teams really were losing.

            Now we have the new NHL, and it took a whole season lost for it to happen.  Certainly, the result of the lockout and subsequent implementation of the salary cap resulted in a redistribution of many of the league's entrenched veteran stars, such as Jaromir Jagr or Peter Forsberg, much to the chagrin of fans who thought some of these players would never play anywhere else.

            But the new deal is working.  We're only halfway through the first round of the first playoff season since the lockout, and so far, the overall level of play has been astounding.  The action is faster, there are fewer useless whistles, and more players seem willing to just shut up and play.  Teams are also more evenly matched.  The Colorado Avalanche were nearly 15 games above .500, and they got a seven seed.  In the past, one could sometimes expect a seven seed to give a two seed problems, but the games just weren't as intense, and eight seeds certainly stood no chance against the best team in each conference.  Even when lesser seeded teams did win, it was obvious that they were playing way above their heads.

            The Detroit Red Wings, part of that old Western guard of hockey teams that made the NHL utterly predictable and uninteresting to the casual fan each year, are floundering against the eight seed Edmonton Oilers, even though the Wings were the best in the West and seemingly poised for another Cup run.  Edmonton is loaded with scoring power compared to their eight seed counterparts in the past (Chris Pronger, Ryan Smyth, Michael Peca, just to name a few) as well as a surprisingly competent goalie (another eight seed rarity).  Are the Oilers just an anomaly?  Evidently not.

            Back East, the Carolina Hurricanes were picked by many in the media (paging ESPN) to blow by Montréal and possibly even end up in the finals.  After getting embarrassed in game one of the series, Carolina roared back to take the lead from down three goals in the second period of game two because of Montréal' s numerous penalties.  Even though the Habs should have been reeling after such a comeback, they instead showed the mental toughness of a championship team, tying the game and later winning in overtime.  The Hurricanes now trail 2-0 in the series.

            I've been paying close attention to both of the aforementioned series, and what I noticed most was that I could hardly tell the difference between the one or two seed and the seven or eight.  Edmonton and Montréal looked just as good, if not better than, Detroit and Carolina.  This is not merely two cases of teams playing above and beyond their abilities-this could be beginning of a new era of NFL-like parity in the NHL.  This is exactly what the financial minds of the league were trying to get the players union to realize during the lockout.  Revenue is more predictable when the games are less predictable.

            And what about the Dallas Stars?  You would think that series was a conference final or matchup of 4-5 seeds.  Instead, the Avalanche are the seven seed in the West, but easily look every bit as good as Dallas.

            Other rule changes have greatly contributed to making the game faster, and this is ironic due to the supposedly heavier enforcement of penalties.  Professional hockey right now is more intense and exciting than ever, even though this newfound (or rediscovered) appeal comes at the expense of some of hockey's most devoted fans in cities like Detroit.

            One could argue that Wings coach Mike Babcock is really no more than a mediocre talent who happened to be coaching a mediocre Anaheim team that just happened to have a hot playoff goalie (JS Giguere) when his team made that great playoff run a couple years back.  He certainly hasn't been able to adjust to the Oilers' style of play, and his team has looked progressively worse in each of the three games thus far.

            But coaching aside, the Red Wings are the most loaded team in the league when it comes to talent, and they certainly shouldn't be having any problems with Edmonton.  While it's true that hockey will never be as popular in the United States as the NFL or baseball, the NHL has taken some steps in the right direction, and is now reaping some success from the newfound balance of power throughout the league.  Anyone who's not watching right now is certainly missing something incredible.  And the people will come.

Brothers and sisters in college football fanaticism, let us rejoice, for today, there is joy in Mudville.  The valiant Vince Young, the nation's truly most outstanding player, and his burnt-orange Longhorn brethren from Austin, Texas exercised their supremacy over the befuddled Trojans of Southern California, that imposter national champion that, once again, failed to prove on the field it is deserving of any national title.

We certainly come a long way since the Associated Press, in its infinite wisdom, decided that USC's 2004 Rose Bowl victory over a clearly inferior Michigan team deserved a national title over Louisiana State, the true BCS champions who had actually won the championship game.  As if that were not crazy enough, the pundits on TV still act like USC's split title in 2004 was legitimate, even though according to their logic, Auburn deserved a split title in 2005, since they were snubbed from the title game and were clearly more deserving than Oklahoma was. 

In my opinion, Auburn would have defeated USC in 2005, for many of the same reasons (defense, special teams, awesome ground game) that Texas did in 2006, and Auburn plays in the toughest conference in America (read my last post below for why the SEC is the best).  Why should they have been penalized for playing The Citadel, when they still beat every opponent on their schedule, conference and non-conference alike?  Yes, USC did the same, but in a considerably weaker Pac-10 conference in which scoring defense is virtually nonexistent, and parity is sparse.  Quite frankly, USC never showed on the field that they were a better team than the Auburn Tigers, so Auburn should have at minimum had a split title, at least according to the Associated Press' logic in 2004.  But I digress yet again.

As I watched the fourth quarter of Wednesday's game, trepidation spread over me with about 6 1/2 minutes left, as USC had the ball in Longhorn territory and looked as though they may put the game out of reach.  "How can this happen?"  I thought to myself.  The idea of USC winning a legitimate title made me sick; they were certainly not the best team in the country, just a façade of speed that covered up their lack of spleens.  Speed does make fools of sports fans; we are so easily fooled by it, even though time and again, we find that what really matters is a strong defense, a bruising ground game, special teams, and a quarterback who is like a field general.  How else do you think Ohio State won with Craig Krenzel at QB?

But deliverance was at hand!  Vince Young led the Longhorns back for two scores, and was virtually untouchable as he marched them up and down the field.  I'm not a Texas fan, and I haven't cheered for Texas since the days of Major Applewhite commanding their offense.  But on Wednesday night, Texas was my team for the day, if only to avenge the wrongful loss Notre Dame suffered against USC earlier this year (Reggie Bush pushed Leinart into the end zone, which should've been a penalty, and the ball should've been spotted at the two instead of the one-yard line; replay would've shown this had Pete Carroll not opted out of it).

And when Vince Young scored that final Texas touchdown, nailed the two-point conversion, and finally walked off the field victorious seconds later, I felt a sigh of relief, followed by a feeling of absolute vindication.  As you might read below, I picked Texas to win this game weeks ago, and I stuck to that prediction in the face of many who thought I was absolutely wrong.  Everyone who watched the game with me doubted that Texas would come out on top, even though most wanted them to win.  But touting my prognostication skills could wait, at least for a while.  For now, Texas won, the imposter champions fell, and all is right with the world.

Does anybody remember the last time an overhyped, overrated football team from Southern California with a great offense and a shoddy defense got pulverized in a championship game?  I do.  It was the Oakland Raiders against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII.  Everyone overlooked the Bucs because of Oakland's gaudy offense and flashy style of play, but Oakland looked more like the Houston Texans in the game itself, as Tampa made Rich Gannon and Co. look ridiculous.  I'm not saying that the same thing is going to happen to USC, but I am saying that they are definitely going to lose to Texas.

First of all, although some don't like to admit, there's a good reason why a one loss Oregon team didn't make the BCS.  The Pac-10 is fundamentally an overrated conference with teams that have weak defenses, and most of these teams would not win more than two conference games if they had to play in the SEC, ACC, or Big 10.  What good is 600 yards of offense and seven touchdowns if you give up 700 yards and eight touchdowns?  I'm sure Alabama would take their 6-3 regular-season victory over Tennessee any day over that.

Furthermore, there are athletes (like Vince Young and Brady Quinn) who are as good or better than the best the Pac-10 has to offer playing on better teams with better defenses against better competition.  Need we remind ourselves that the Pac-10 produces perennial NFL busts like Ryan leaf and Cade McNown because of its inflated stats and lack of defense.  I'm not saying that good players don't come out of the conference, just look at Carson Palmer.  But if you put a team like USC (or especially the average Pac-10 team) against quality teams from the other BCS conferences, the Pac-10 will almost always have a hard time winning.  Case in point: USC's game last season against Virginia Tech at the start of the season.  They very nearly lost that game, to a team that was led by Bryan Randall-a good leader, but not exactly the most skilled of quarterbacks.  This year, USC should've lost to Notre Dame, and would have if instant replay could have been used.  Pete Carroll must be the only person on earth left who doesn't see the value in getting a call right.  But I digress...

 I look forward to watching Vince Young and the Texas ground game shred the USC defense, and Young reminding everyone that the Heisman is supposed to go to the nation's most outstanding player, not the flashiest.