So here we are at the quarter mark of the 2008 season. The time of the season when General Managers take a step back to look at what they’ve assembled. It is now that teams begin to decide whether or not they’re going to be legitimate contenders as the season wears on.

Once that decision is made it’s up to the GMs to determine what the next course of action should be. If the team has decided it’s not likely to contend; the next move is generally a sell-off of high-priced veterans with an eye toward the future. However, if the team believes it has a shot—that’s when things get interesting.

Coming into the 2008 season the Mariners, Blue Jays and Tigers were all thought to be potential contenders and in the case of the Tigers, one of the odds-on-favorites to win the World Series. Right now all three are struggling offensively and could use a serious shot in the arm (pun VERY MUCH intended) by the name of Barry Bonds.

I’m going to take a look at all three teams and how Barry Bonds does or does not fit into their playoff hopes going forward.

SEATTLE MARINERS

The Mariners entered 2008 on the heels of a successful campaign that led to the resigning of Ichiro Suzuki and saw the team improve the rotation with the additions of Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva. Many picked the Mariners to unseat the Angels atop the AL West on the back of the retooled pitching staff, strong bullpen and a solid offense. Unfortunately, someone forgot to inform the offense.

The offense currently ranks 23rd with a .250 average and 29th with an on-base percentage of .309. These low totals explain why the team has only amassed a whopping total of 165 runs thus far.

The team is predominantly right-handed with lefties, Ichiro and Raul Ibanez, and switch-hitter Jose Vidro being the only regulars to mix up the parade of right-handed hitters. Bonds is--without a doubt--the best lefty on the market and even at age 43 can still produce at a high level both in terms of power and on-base percentage (28 homers and .480 OBP in 340 at-bats in 2007).

The Mariners—who are currently ten games under .500 and 8 ½ games out of first in the AL West—have already made attempts to shake up the lineup by jettisoning Brad Wilkerson and Greg Norton and replacing them with minor league standouts Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien. There were discussions regarding Frank Thomas, when the slugger was released by the Blue Jays in late April, but Thomas’ decision to rejoin Oakland quickly put an end to any chances of the Big Hurt bringing his Hall of Fame credentials to the Pacific Northwest.

Why It Will Happen: Current DH Jose Vidro is “hitting” .193 with two home runs and a .244 OBP, Bonds could hit better than that right-handed…and blind-folded. Needless to say Bonds would be an immediate upgrade and would love having Ichiro on base in front of him all season long, almost as much as Ichiro would love having Bonds batting behind him.

Why It Won’t Happen: The oft-rumored Ken Griffey Jr. to the Mariners deal seems more likely than Bonds landing in Seattle. Griffey would provide the offensive upgrade and the left-handed bat the team so desperately needs. Throw in the fact that he is a hero in the Emerald City and it only makes sense for Griff to return to Seattle for a storybook ending to his career.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

As is the case every season in recent memory, the Blue Jays entered the season as a popular “dark horse” candidate to make a playoff run in the powerful AL East. The team boasts one of the best rotations in all of baseball and was supposed to have a dynamic offense with Alex Rios, Frank Thomas, Aaron Hill and the returns of a healthy Scott Rolen and Vernon Wells.

What the Blue Jays got was one of the lowest scoring offenses in the American League. The Jays currently sit at 153 runs scored with a .255 team average. As a result of the low output (and the unattractive vesting option he was closing in on) Frank Thomas was released in late April and Seattle cast-off Brad Wilkerson was brought in along with the streaky, yet underachieving Kevin Mench from Texas.

The Blue Jays currently sit in last place in the AL East, five games out of first-place and the only reason they’re that close is because the pitching has been stellar thus far. Without some sort of offensive wake-up call the Jays can right off contending in 2008 and potentially beyond with the window closing on much of the team’s aging core.

The Blue Jays have gotten sufficient results from Matt Stairs, but Adam Lind is overmatched and belongs in Triple-A. Wilkerson, Mench, Shannon Stewart and the plethora of other outfielders the Jays have sent out are not getting it done. The team would be wise to move Stairs to left and put Bonds in the DH slot and use both Bonds and Stairs to split up the right-hander heavy core of Wells, Rios and Rolen.

Why It Will Happen: Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi has shown that he's not afraid of shaking up his roster. He's already made a handful of transactions this season in an attempt to improve his struggling offense and as a student of Billy Beane’s on-base percentage philosophy, Bonds is the perfect fit for this squad and wouldn’t deal with nearly the level of media scrutiny north of the border.

Why It Won’t Happen: The Jays are a middle-of-the-pack spender and don’t figure to increase their payroll. Signing Bonds, even at a discount, wouldn’t be in line with the team’s spending philosophy. The Blue Jays are far more likely to deal from their strength, young pitching, to acquire a slugger such as Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, etc…rather than spend to bring in Bonds.

DETROIT TIGERS

Ask just about any baseball “expert” and coming into the 2008 season the Tigers were neck-and-neck with the Red Sox as the odds-on-favorite to win the World Series. Now, with a month and a half of the season in the rearview mirror the Tigers are mired in last-place in the American League Central, four and a half games behind the overachieving Minnesota Twins.

What makes things even more interesting is that the Tigers vaunted offense, which sputtered out of the gates, has finally gotten on a role and the Tigers are in the top five in the AL in team average, on-base percentage and runs scored. The Tigers are getting destroyed by their own overrated starting rotation and the one thing that most experts overlooked in the preseason, the absolute void that is a bullpen.

Detroit currently ranks dead last in ERA (5.03) and saves (5). They are also the only team in the AL without a complete game and one of only two (the Mariners) that have yet to produce a shut-out.

So why am I recommending the Tigers bring in Barry Bonds when he surely can’t help where the team needs him most? What the team lacks—offensively—is a consummate presence at DH and another reliable lefty bat. Bonds could fill both of those voids.

Gary Sheffield and his ailing shoulder have moved back to the outfield with the end of Jacque Jones’ month-long tenure in left-field. That leaves a rotation of aging stars and overweight sluggers like Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera to take their turns at DH and super sub – and dispatched starter – Brandon Inge to fill-in around the diamond. The logical move would be to bring in Bonds, plug him in at DH and watch the lineup continue to rake in an attempt to overcome the inequities of the pitching staff.

Why It Will Happen: The Yankees have proven that a team can make the playoffs without a pitching staff and the Tigers appear to be built in the same mold. With a rapidly aging core and much of the youth sold off in offseason the Tigers’ window to win a championship is closing fast. Throw in the fact that Jim Leyland has proven he can manage Bonds in the past, the Tigers appear to be a perfect fit.

Why It Won’t Happen: The offense is set and with Brandon Inge around the team can afford to appoint Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera as the full-time DHs and let Inge get plenty of at-bats whilst upgrading the defense at third-base. The priority right now is pitching and guys like Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Huston Street, George Sherrill, etc are more likely to be on the Tigers’ radar than another aging slugger for their collection.

DARKHORSE CANDIDATES

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

It seems that the Royals have put together a respectable rotation and a solid bullpen. What the team lacks is someone to generate runs. The Royals currently own one of the lowest OBPs in the AL as well as the fewest home runs and runs scored. Kansas City would be wise to give Billy Butler a first-baseman’s mitt and give Barry Bonds the DH-role for as long as he’d like to crush baseballs in the Midwest summer heat.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

Sure, sure they’re in first in the AL East and sure, they’re not expected to compete all season long, but let’s throw logic out the window and just say…what if. What if the Rays brought in Bonds and let him DH all season long. With the likes of BJ Upton and Carl Crawford on base in front of him and sluggers Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena behind him in the lineup—I feel like that offense could hang with the Red Sox and Yankees until September.

NEW YORK YANKEES

This isn’t a logical move for a team that is lefty-heavy and possess about half-a-dozen DHs already, but with Hank Steinbrenner at the helm, anything is possible.

NEW YORK METS

This is another move that doesn’t seem logical, especially given Bonds’ diminished skills in the outfield. However, a left-field platoon of Bonds and Moises Alou would allow Alou to stay healthy and would work to get them both sufficient at-bats throughout the course of an entire season. Also, the luxury of having Endy Chavez as a late-inning defensive replacement nullifies any damage they could do in crunch time while still allowing Willie Randolph to have one or the other on the bench as a pinch-hitter.

Every year, I enjoy spending the weekend before baseball starts stowed away on my couch feverishly pounding away at my laptop to write up my omniscient pre-season picks. This year, however, with the season beginning mid-week half-a-world  away and then pausing for a few days and then restarting, with a one-day match-up solely intended to pimp the Nationals new stadium, I found myself having a hard time wrapping my mind around the fact that the season was—in fact—beginning.

It grew even harder to believe when I was trudging around Minneapolis’ snow-filled streets in a blizzard on my way to the Metrodome to watch the Twins’ home opener. I mean seriously…a blizzard…on Opening Day?! Can’t wait until that new open-air stadium opens up in Minneapolis!!

Either way, after dropping close to $70 on overpriced Dome Dogs, nachos and warm beer…there is now no doubt that baseball season is upon us. With nearly a week of exhilarating play already under our belts, it’s about time I get my butt in gear and hammer out my belated pre-season picks.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

CY YOUNG

My Pick – Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays

Doc Halladay might not be the strikeout machine he once was, but he is still a stud on the hill and the unquestioned ace for one of the best rotations in all of baseball. As is often the case for Halladay, health will be the major concern heading into this season. With other potential front-runners for the AL Cy Young such as Scott Kazmir, John Lackey and Josh Beckett all spending time on the DL early in the season, Halladay needs to remain healthy himself to distance himself from the pack.

Halladay’s 2008 Line: 19 W – 3.48 ERA – 156 K

In the Mix: Erik Bedard – Seattle Mariners & CC Sabathia – Cleveland Indiants
Dark Horse: Javier Vazquez – Chicago White Sox
Really Dark Horse: Rich Harden – Oakland Athletics

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

My Pick – Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays

I realize Longoria is the fashionable pick—but there’s a reason he’s the fashionable pick—the dude can flat-out rake. In Spring Training he hit .262 with three home runs and ten runs batted in. Throw in his .407 on-base percentage and his .595 slugging percentage and there’s no doubt why the rest of the roster was begging the Rays management to insert Longoria into the Opening Day lineup. Unfortunately, fiscal rationale took over and the Rays sent Longoria back to Triple A where he’ll wait until May for his call-up, ala Ryan Braun last season, at which point one can expect Longoria will be entrenched at third base for a long, long time.

Longoria’s 2008 Line: .280 – 21 HR – 89 RBI

In the Mix: Joba Chamberlain – New York Yankees & Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox
Dark Horse: Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins
Really Dark Horse: Alexei Ramirez – Chicago White Sox

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

My Pick – Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees

Honestly, given the way A-Rod absolutely obliterated everything in his path last season, it’s really hard to knock the guy. Plus, who was even close to touching A-Rod for overall stats last year? Who’s that you say? No one. Sure his numbers have historically dipped off following his MVP seasons, but let’s take note that we’re talking about a guy who has had multiple MVP seasons for this statement can be made. How many multi-time MVPs are still hanging out in big league locker-rooms? I bet you can count them all on one hand. Things could always change as the season progresses, but hands down A-Rod is still the best player in the game today and now that he has the whole “biggest contract in the history of history” thing taken care of…now he wants a ring, expect an even more focused A-Rod in 2008 and beyond.

Rodriguez’s 2008 Line: .317 – 53 HR – 121 RBI

In the Mix: David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox & Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
Dark Horse: Vladimir Guerrero – Los Angeles Angels
Really Dark Horse: Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers

NATIONAL LEAGUE

CY YOUNG

My Pick – Johan Santana – New York Mets

Let’s be honest, I’d be a fool not to pick Santana. Although, I’d also be an even bigger fool if I tried to act like the NL wasn’t full of quality pitching with the likes of Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Chris Young, etc…etc…etc…

However, of all those names, Santana is still the best of the bunch. Anyone who looks at the numbers Santana put up in Minnesota would have to expect an increase with a move to the lighter line-ups of the NL and the lack of a designated hitter. Santana has always been a pitching machine, but now he’s got long-term security, a strong line-up behind him and most importantly he has the best shot to win a ring he’s had in his entire career, be afraid National League…be very afraid.

Santana’s 2008 Line: 23 W – 2.87 ERA – 234 K

In the Mix: Jake Peavy – San Diego Padres & Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks
Dark Horse: Roy Oswalt – Houston Astros
Really Dark Horse: Pedro Martinez – New York Mets

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

My Pick – Johnny Cueto – Cincinnati Reds

Sure, by the time I’ve written this I’ve already had the advantage of watching him humiliate the Diamondbacks, but anyone who has been following Cueto’s already impressive career knows that he is for real. In just 348 minor league innings Cueto struck out 357 batters and notched a 3.28 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. For those of you who aren’t stat junkies, let me break that down so you’ll get what I’m saying…CUETO IS AWESOME!!! Yeah, I think that sums it up. Throw in the fact that he’s slotted into the third-spot in the rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and just keep looking better…the only potential threat to Cueto’s success is the man in the dugout, Dusty Baker. With young arms Edison Volquez and Homer Bailey in addition to Cueto all in the fold for the Reds, many are nervous that Baker will wear them out as he is believed to have done with Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Here’s to hoping that Cueto, Volquez and Bailey can all avoid the wrath of Dusty the Destroyer.

Cueto’s 2008 Line:  13 W – 3.48 ERA – 178K

In the Mix: Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds & Geovany Soto – Chicago Cubs
Dark Horse: Kosuke Fukudome – Chicago Cubs
Really Dark Horse: Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

My Pick – Matt Holliday – Colorado Rockies

Last year should have been Holliday’s year, no doubt about it. Sure Jimmy Rollins had a great season, but much like Ryan Howard the year before, he wasn’t the Most Valuable Player in the National League. This year Holliday figures to leave no doubt that the award belongs on his mantle. He just turned 28 in January and is gaining not only more power as he gets older, but also a better eye at the dish. With the incentive of playing for a long-term deal also in the mix and a chance to return to the World Series, Holliday has nothing but motivation heading into the 2008 campaign and it’s a well-known fact that when great players get motivated, they get down-right scary. Expect Holliday to put up some scary numbers in 2008.

Holliday’s 2008 Line: .331 – 41 HR – 138 RBI

In the Mix: Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals & David Wright – New York Mets
Dark Horse: Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
Really Dark Horse: Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals

AMERICAN LEAGUE

EAST

Red Sox
Blue Jays - WC
Yankees
Rays
Orioles

CENTRAL

Indians
Twins
Tigers
Royals
White Sox

WEST

Angels
Mariners
Rangers
Athletics

NATIONAL LEAGUE

EAST

Mets
Phillies - WC
Braves
Nationals
Marlins

CENTRAL

Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Astros
Cardinals
Pirates

WEST

Padres
Rockies
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Giants

DIVISIONAL SERIES

Padres over Phillies (3-1)
Mets over Brewers (3-2)

Blue Jays over Angels (3-1)
Red Sox over Indians (3-2)

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Mets over Padres (4-2)
Red Sox over Blue Jays (4-1)

WORLD SERIES

Mets over Red Sox (4-3)

 

As the Winter Meetings come to a close many teams are still missing a piece or two of the puzzle for 2007. For many teams a big part of that puzzle is offense and this market has shown that if a team wants to add a potent bat to the lineup its going to cost big bucks, but for those who are savvy enough and—more importantly—gutsy enough, there is another option.

Last season both the Athletics and Padres took gambles that paid big dividends. Those gambles came in the forms of Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza, two veteran sluggers on the downhill slope of their careers, struggling to latch on with a new ballclub. Both teams paid well below “market value” and allowed both sluggers to reestablish themselves as superstars. In return both ballclubs received offensive performances that helped power their squads to division titles and both players were able to prove themselves and considerably increase their value on this year’s market.

With these two prototypes in mind, here are potential buy low candidates of this off-season:

Sammy Sosa – Outfielder/DH

-Fresh off a year of relaxing and working to get himself healthy, Sosa is reinvigorated to continue his professional career so that he can go out on his own terms. He is hoping to latch on with some team willing to take a flyer on a 38 year-old whose career is shrouded in controversy. In an interview on “Outside the Lines” Sosa said that he’s been speaking with his agent to see if there is any interest. He also gave this sales pitch: "I'm only 38 years old. ... I'm an exciting player and I'm looking for a chance, and if I get that chance, you never know. I might hit you 40 or 50 [home runs], you never know."

Although 40 or 50 homers might be a bit unrealistic for Sosa at this stage in his career, it’s still not impossible. Although Sosa’s injury-filled 2005 may have left a bad taste in the collective mouths of baseball general managers, his pre-2005 numbers speak for themselves. Sosa is the only player in Major League Baseball to hit 60 home runs in three seasons, he has 588 career home runs, he is a career .274 hitter and, as he proved in Chicago, he can draw fans—especially if he’s crushing the ball.

Best Fits: Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Washington, Pittsburgh

Dimitri Young – Outfielder/Infielder/DH

-Having completely fallen off the radar since his release from the Tigers, one has to wonder…why? Young has proven that—in addition to being a bit unruly and unpredictable on and off the field—he can really rake when he’s healthy. The latter has been an issue through much of Young’s career, but his numbers don’t lie. In seasons where Young has remained healthy and in the lineup his average is often right around .300 and both his home run and RBI numbers warrant penciling his name on a lineup card.

The one thing keeping this switch-hitter from a stellar payday is his personal inconsistency. Some times he is a model citizen and clubhouse leader and other times he is on probation and grumbling about playing time. At this stage in his career Young is probably best-suited to be a full-time DH on a club with a strong manager to handle his equally strong personality. Much like Frank Thomas prior to last season, Young hasn’t been really healthy since 2003, when he hit .297 with 29 HRs, but if there is a team willing to take a gamble Young could be the missing piece, just as Thomas was the missing piece for the A’s in 2006.

Best Fits: Minnesota, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Kansas City

Rondell White – Outfielder/DH

-White is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. He was signed by the Twins to be their answer to the designated hitter question that has plagued them since Paul Moliter’s retirement. Unfortunately, things didn’t go according to plan. White, who had undergone off-season shoulder surgery, couldn’t hit for average, he could hit for power, he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. To make matters worse he spent much of the season plagued with hamstring injuries that sent him to the disabled list and held him back when he was in the line-up.

It was during a midseason consultation that White discovered the cause for his missing abilities at the plate. Apparently, the muscles in his shoulder had been pulled too tight during the surgery and it was hindering his ability to get around on pitches. During the second half White implemented a rigorous stretching regimen to regain his stroke at the plate and it worked. White who had hit just .182 without a single home run before the All-Star Break, rebounded to hit .321 with seven home runs in the second half. During that time, he played mostly left field, as opposed to DH, the slot the Twins had originally signed him for. It makes one wonder what White could do if given a full, healthy season to build on the strides he made at the end of 2006.

Best Fits: Minnesota, Seattle, Philadelphia, San Diego

Cliff Floyd – Outfielder

-Cut from the same mold as White, Cliff Floyd is an enticing option to teams looking to add not only a bat, but some speed as well. This of course is assuming that Floyd recovers well from his off-season surgery on his Achilles tendon. If he is healthy, Floyd is a major difference-maker, when he’s hurt….not so much. It would probably be best to implement him as a designated hitter most of the time, maybe letting him play the field a few games a week to rest a regular starter.

When healthy and getting over 500 at bats in a season Floyd’s average line looks like this: .291 avg, 164 hits, 37 doubles, 29 home runs, 97 RBI, 19 stolen bases and 98 runs scored. In seasons were he doesn’t get 500 at-bats his averages are as follows: .254 avg, 76 hits, 19 doubles, 12 home runs, 45 RBI, 8 stolen bases and 37 runs scored. Needless to say Floyd’s health and production go hand-in-hand, if the stars are aligned and his tendon is attached, Floyd could be in for a repeat of his 2005 performance.

Best Fits: Minnesota, Philadelphia, Chicago (NL), Los Angeles (AL)

Any of these players could break-out in 2007 and become this year’s Frank Thomas or they could revert back to their injured ways and turn out to be a total bust. But if the price is right and the risk is low any of these players has the chance to right in the ship in 2007, if someone is willing to roll the dice.

It's Game 6 of the 1993 World Series and you're a fan watching the game at home. You see Joe Carter step to the plate and you can just feel the electricity in the air. The Jays have one of their best against the Phillies tough-as-nails closer. The ultimate battle. Man vs. Man. Then it happened....

The 1993 Toronto Blue Jays were a powerful team with the likes of John Olerud, Paul Moliter, Rickey Henderson, Robby Alomar, Devon White, Dave Stewart, Juan Guzman, David Cone and one man whose name is forever synonymous with the 1993 World Series—Joe Carter.

Joe Carter is what many refer to as a journeyman. His career took him to six different teams over a span of 15 years. He only hit over .300 for a full season once in his career and he only hit 35 home runs in a season once. Not your prototypical slugger or the guy you'd want holding a bat with the game on the line, or was he?

What Carter did do was play solid defense (career fielding percentage .981) and show up every day with a smile on his face and a desire to play the game. The same could be said during the 1993 season. Carter anchored the Blue Jays outfield and put up a line of .254/33/121. Solid numbers for a power-hitting, free-swinging outfielder with, at the time, ten years of big league service.

But Joe Carter will not be remembered for any of his career stats. He won’t be remembered for his 396 career home runs. He won’t be remembered for his lifetime .259 batting average or his anemic .306 career on-base percentage. What Carter will be remembered for is Game 6 of the 1993 World Series.

Let me set the scene. The Blue Jays held a three games to two edge over the Phillies and the Series was headed back to “The Great White North” and the cozy confines of Toronto’s Skydome. Paul Molitor (who finished with a .500 avg and won the MVP) tripled home a run in Toronto's three-run first inning that basically set the pace for Game 6. Moliter would add a bases-empty homer in the fifth that moved the Jays ahead of Philly 5-1. The Phillies charged back with a 5-run seventh inning capped off by a three-run homer from centerfielder Lenny Dykstra. The mammoth seventh inning coupled with a Jim Eisenreich RBI in the fourth gave the Phillies a 6-5 advantage going into the bottom of the 9th.

The Phillies stud closer Mitch Williams was given the call from the bullpen and proceeded to walk the first batter he faced (Rickey Henderson) on four pitches. White flied out to left field, but Molitor followed with a clutch single to center. Joe Carter then stepped up to the plate for what would be the defining moment of his career and one of the greatest moments in World Series history. He battled Williams to a 2-2 count and then sent an elbow-high fastball over the left-field fence for the game and the Jays second title in as many years.

Carter proceeded to run around the bases with his arms extended and jumping up and down, as anyone in the right mind would do. I consider this one of the single greatest moments in the history of the game simply because to this day I remember sitting on my couch and watching Carter rip the ball out of the park and the second he made connection, it was gone. It is the moment we all dream of when we sit in bed at night, stand alone on a baseball field after a game when the field lights have long-since been turned down or when we step into the batting cage for the first time.

Everyone wants to be the guy who steps up in the bottom of the ninth and hits the game-winning homerun. Anyone who says they don’t is a liar or simply doesn’t love the game of baseball as much as they should. That moment still stands clear in my mind and, as a baseball fan, sticks out as one of the defining moments of my love for the game.