So here we are at the quarter mark of the 2008 season. The time of the season when General Managers take a step back to look at what they’ve assembled. It is now that teams begin to decide whether or not they’re going to be legitimate contenders as the season wears on.

Once that decision is made it’s up to the GMs to determine what the next course of action should be. If the team has decided it’s not likely to contend; the next move is generally a sell-off of high-priced veterans with an eye toward the future. However, if the team believes it has a shot—that’s when things get interesting.

Coming into the 2008 season the Mariners, Blue Jays and Tigers were all thought to be potential contenders and in the case of the Tigers, one of the odds-on-favorites to win the World Series. Right now all three are struggling offensively and could use a serious shot in the arm (pun VERY MUCH intended) by the name of Barry Bonds.

I’m going to take a look at all three teams and how Barry Bonds does or does not fit into their playoff hopes going forward.

SEATTLE MARINERS

The Mariners entered 2008 on the heels of a successful campaign that led to the resigning of Ichiro Suzuki and saw the team improve the rotation with the additions of Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva. Many picked the Mariners to unseat the Angels atop the AL West on the back of the retooled pitching staff, strong bullpen and a solid offense. Unfortunately, someone forgot to inform the offense.

The offense currently ranks 23rd with a .250 average and 29th with an on-base percentage of .309. These low totals explain why the team has only amassed a whopping total of 165 runs thus far.

The team is predominantly right-handed with lefties, Ichiro and Raul Ibanez, and switch-hitter Jose Vidro being the only regulars to mix up the parade of right-handed hitters. Bonds is--without a doubt--the best lefty on the market and even at age 43 can still produce at a high level both in terms of power and on-base percentage (28 homers and .480 OBP in 340 at-bats in 2007).

The Mariners—who are currently ten games under .500 and 8 ½ games out of first in the AL West—have already made attempts to shake up the lineup by jettisoning Brad Wilkerson and Greg Norton and replacing them with minor league standouts Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien. There were discussions regarding Frank Thomas, when the slugger was released by the Blue Jays in late April, but Thomas’ decision to rejoin Oakland quickly put an end to any chances of the Big Hurt bringing his Hall of Fame credentials to the Pacific Northwest.

Why It Will Happen: Current DH Jose Vidro is “hitting” .193 with two home runs and a .244 OBP, Bonds could hit better than that right-handed…and blind-folded. Needless to say Bonds would be an immediate upgrade and would love having Ichiro on base in front of him all season long, almost as much as Ichiro would love having Bonds batting behind him.

Why It Won’t Happen: The oft-rumored Ken Griffey Jr. to the Mariners deal seems more likely than Bonds landing in Seattle. Griffey would provide the offensive upgrade and the left-handed bat the team so desperately needs. Throw in the fact that he is a hero in the Emerald City and it only makes sense for Griff to return to Seattle for a storybook ending to his career.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

As is the case every season in recent memory, the Blue Jays entered the season as a popular “dark horse” candidate to make a playoff run in the powerful AL East. The team boasts one of the best rotations in all of baseball and was supposed to have a dynamic offense with Alex Rios, Frank Thomas, Aaron Hill and the returns of a healthy Scott Rolen and Vernon Wells.

What the Blue Jays got was one of the lowest scoring offenses in the American League. The Jays currently sit at 153 runs scored with a .255 team average. As a result of the low output (and the unattractive vesting option he was closing in on) Frank Thomas was released in late April and Seattle cast-off Brad Wilkerson was brought in along with the streaky, yet underachieving Kevin Mench from Texas.

The Blue Jays currently sit in last place in the AL East, five games out of first-place and the only reason they’re that close is because the pitching has been stellar thus far. Without some sort of offensive wake-up call the Jays can right off contending in 2008 and potentially beyond with the window closing on much of the team’s aging core.

The Blue Jays have gotten sufficient results from Matt Stairs, but Adam Lind is overmatched and belongs in Triple-A. Wilkerson, Mench, Shannon Stewart and the plethora of other outfielders the Jays have sent out are not getting it done. The team would be wise to move Stairs to left and put Bonds in the DH slot and use both Bonds and Stairs to split up the right-hander heavy core of Wells, Rios and Rolen.

Why It Will Happen: Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi has shown that he's not afraid of shaking up his roster. He's already made a handful of transactions this season in an attempt to improve his struggling offense and as a student of Billy Beane’s on-base percentage philosophy, Bonds is the perfect fit for this squad and wouldn’t deal with nearly the level of media scrutiny north of the border.

Why It Won’t Happen: The Jays are a middle-of-the-pack spender and don’t figure to increase their payroll. Signing Bonds, even at a discount, wouldn’t be in line with the team’s spending philosophy. The Blue Jays are far more likely to deal from their strength, young pitching, to acquire a slugger such as Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, etc…rather than spend to bring in Bonds.

DETROIT TIGERS

Ask just about any baseball “expert” and coming into the 2008 season the Tigers were neck-and-neck with the Red Sox as the odds-on-favorite to win the World Series. Now, with a month and a half of the season in the rearview mirror the Tigers are mired in last-place in the American League Central, four and a half games behind the overachieving Minnesota Twins.

What makes things even more interesting is that the Tigers vaunted offense, which sputtered out of the gates, has finally gotten on a role and the Tigers are in the top five in the AL in team average, on-base percentage and runs scored. The Tigers are getting destroyed by their own overrated starting rotation and the one thing that most experts overlooked in the preseason, the absolute void that is a bullpen.

Detroit currently ranks dead last in ERA (5.03) and saves (5). They are also the only team in the AL without a complete game and one of only two (the Mariners) that have yet to produce a shut-out.

So why am I recommending the Tigers bring in Barry Bonds when he surely can’t help where the team needs him most? What the team lacks—offensively—is a consummate presence at DH and another reliable lefty bat. Bonds could fill both of those voids.

Gary Sheffield and his ailing shoulder have moved back to the outfield with the end of Jacque Jones’ month-long tenure in left-field. That leaves a rotation of aging stars and overweight sluggers like Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera to take their turns at DH and super sub – and dispatched starter – Brandon Inge to fill-in around the diamond. The logical move would be to bring in Bonds, plug him in at DH and watch the lineup continue to rake in an attempt to overcome the inequities of the pitching staff.

Why It Will Happen: The Yankees have proven that a team can make the playoffs without a pitching staff and the Tigers appear to be built in the same mold. With a rapidly aging core and much of the youth sold off in offseason the Tigers’ window to win a championship is closing fast. Throw in the fact that Jim Leyland has proven he can manage Bonds in the past, the Tigers appear to be a perfect fit.

Why It Won’t Happen: The offense is set and with Brandon Inge around the team can afford to appoint Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera as the full-time DHs and let Inge get plenty of at-bats whilst upgrading the defense at third-base. The priority right now is pitching and guys like Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Huston Street, George Sherrill, etc are more likely to be on the Tigers’ radar than another aging slugger for their collection.

DARKHORSE CANDIDATES

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

It seems that the Royals have put together a respectable rotation and a solid bullpen. What the team lacks is someone to generate runs. The Royals currently own one of the lowest OBPs in the AL as well as the fewest home runs and runs scored. Kansas City would be wise to give Billy Butler a first-baseman’s mitt and give Barry Bonds the DH-role for as long as he’d like to crush baseballs in the Midwest summer heat.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

Sure, sure they’re in first in the AL East and sure, they’re not expected to compete all season long, but let’s throw logic out the window and just say…what if. What if the Rays brought in Bonds and let him DH all season long. With the likes of BJ Upton and Carl Crawford on base in front of him and sluggers Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena behind him in the lineup—I feel like that offense could hang with the Red Sox and Yankees until September.

NEW YORK YANKEES

This isn’t a logical move for a team that is lefty-heavy and possess about half-a-dozen DHs already, but with Hank Steinbrenner at the helm, anything is possible.

NEW YORK METS

This is another move that doesn’t seem logical, especially given Bonds’ diminished skills in the outfield. However, a left-field platoon of Bonds and Moises Alou would allow Alou to stay healthy and would work to get them both sufficient at-bats throughout the course of an entire season. Also, the luxury of having Endy Chavez as a late-inning defensive replacement nullifies any damage they could do in crunch time while still allowing Willie Randolph to have one or the other on the bench as a pinch-hitter.

Every year, I enjoy spending the weekend before baseball starts stowed away on my couch feverishly pounding away at my laptop to write up my omniscient pre-season picks. This year, however, with the season beginning mid-week half-a-world  away and then pausing for a few days and then restarting, with a one-day match-up solely intended to pimp the Nationals new stadium, I found myself having a hard time wrapping my mind around the fact that the season was—in fact—beginning.

It grew even harder to believe when I was trudging around Minneapolis’ snow-filled streets in a blizzard on my way to the Metrodome to watch the Twins’ home opener. I mean seriously…a blizzard…on Opening Day?! Can’t wait until that new open-air stadium opens up in Minneapolis!!

Either way, after dropping close to $70 on overpriced Dome Dogs, nachos and warm beer…there is now no doubt that baseball season is upon us. With nearly a week of exhilarating play already under our belts, it’s about time I get my butt in gear and hammer out my belated pre-season picks.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

CY YOUNG

My Pick – Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays

Doc Halladay might not be the strikeout machine he once was, but he is still a stud on the hill and the unquestioned ace for one of the best rotations in all of baseball. As is often the case for Halladay, health will be the major concern heading into this season. With other potential front-runners for the AL Cy Young such as Scott Kazmir, John Lackey and Josh Beckett all spending time on the DL early in the season, Halladay needs to remain healthy himself to distance himself from the pack.

Halladay’s 2008 Line: 19 W – 3.48 ERA – 156 K

In the Mix: Erik Bedard – Seattle Mariners & CC Sabathia – Cleveland Indiants
Dark Horse: Javier Vazquez – Chicago White Sox
Really Dark Horse: Rich Harden – Oakland Athletics

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

My Pick – Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays

I realize Longoria is the fashionable pick—but there’s a reason he’s the fashionable pick—the dude can flat-out rake. In Spring Training he hit .262 with three home runs and ten runs batted in. Throw in his .407 on-base percentage and his .595 slugging percentage and there’s no doubt why the rest of the roster was begging the Rays management to insert Longoria into the Opening Day lineup. Unfortunately, fiscal rationale took over and the Rays sent Longoria back to Triple A where he’ll wait until May for his call-up, ala Ryan Braun last season, at which point one can expect Longoria will be entrenched at third base for a long, long time.

Longoria’s 2008 Line: .280 – 21 HR – 89 RBI

In the Mix: Joba Chamberlain – New York Yankees & Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox
Dark Horse: Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins
Really Dark Horse: Alexei Ramirez – Chicago White Sox

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

My Pick – Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees

Honestly, given the way A-Rod absolutely obliterated everything in his path last season, it’s really hard to knock the guy. Plus, who was even close to touching A-Rod for overall stats last year? Who’s that you say? No one. Sure his numbers have historically dipped off following his MVP seasons, but let’s take note that we’re talking about a guy who has had multiple MVP seasons for this statement can be made. How many multi-time MVPs are still hanging out in big league locker-rooms? I bet you can count them all on one hand. Things could always change as the season progresses, but hands down A-Rod is still the best player in the game today and now that he has the whole “biggest contract in the history of history” thing taken care of…now he wants a ring, expect an even more focused A-Rod in 2008 and beyond.

Rodriguez’s 2008 Line: .317 – 53 HR – 121 RBI

In the Mix: David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox & Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
Dark Horse: Vladimir Guerrero – Los Angeles Angels
Really Dark Horse: Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers

NATIONAL LEAGUE

CY YOUNG

My Pick – Johan Santana – New York Mets

Let’s be honest, I’d be a fool not to pick Santana. Although, I’d also be an even bigger fool if I tried to act like the NL wasn’t full of quality pitching with the likes of Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Chris Young, etc…etc…etc…

However, of all those names, Santana is still the best of the bunch. Anyone who looks at the numbers Santana put up in Minnesota would have to expect an increase with a move to the lighter line-ups of the NL and the lack of a designated hitter. Santana has always been a pitching machine, but now he’s got long-term security, a strong line-up behind him and most importantly he has the best shot to win a ring he’s had in his entire career, be afraid National League…be very afraid.

Santana’s 2008 Line: 23 W – 2.87 ERA – 234 K

In the Mix: Jake Peavy – San Diego Padres & Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks
Dark Horse: Roy Oswalt – Houston Astros
Really Dark Horse: Pedro Martinez – New York Mets

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

My Pick – Johnny Cueto – Cincinnati Reds

Sure, by the time I’ve written this I’ve already had the advantage of watching him humiliate the Diamondbacks, but anyone who has been following Cueto’s already impressive career knows that he is for real. In just 348 minor league innings Cueto struck out 357 batters and notched a 3.28 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. For those of you who aren’t stat junkies, let me break that down so you’ll get what I’m saying…CUETO IS AWESOME!!! Yeah, I think that sums it up. Throw in the fact that he’s slotted into the third-spot in the rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and just keep looking better…the only potential threat to Cueto’s success is the man in the dugout, Dusty Baker. With young arms Edison Volquez and Homer Bailey in addition to Cueto all in the fold for the Reds, many are nervous that Baker will wear them out as he is believed to have done with Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Here’s to hoping that Cueto, Volquez and Bailey can all avoid the wrath of Dusty the Destroyer.

Cueto’s 2008 Line:  13 W – 3.48 ERA – 178K

In the Mix: Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds & Geovany Soto – Chicago Cubs
Dark Horse: Kosuke Fukudome – Chicago Cubs
Really Dark Horse: Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

My Pick – Matt Holliday – Colorado Rockies

Last year should have been Holliday’s year, no doubt about it. Sure Jimmy Rollins had a great season, but much like Ryan Howard the year before, he wasn’t the Most Valuable Player in the National League. This year Holliday figures to leave no doubt that the award belongs on his mantle. He just turned 28 in January and is gaining not only more power as he gets older, but also a better eye at the dish. With the incentive of playing for a long-term deal also in the mix and a chance to return to the World Series, Holliday has nothing but motivation heading into the 2008 campaign and it’s a well-known fact that when great players get motivated, they get down-right scary. Expect Holliday to put up some scary numbers in 2008.

Holliday’s 2008 Line: .331 – 41 HR – 138 RBI

In the Mix: Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals & David Wright – New York Mets
Dark Horse: Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
Really Dark Horse: Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals

AMERICAN LEAGUE

EAST

Red Sox
Blue Jays - WC
Yankees
Rays
Orioles

CENTRAL

Indians
Twins
Tigers
Royals
White Sox

WEST

Angels
Mariners
Rangers
Athletics

NATIONAL LEAGUE

EAST

Mets
Phillies - WC
Braves
Nationals
Marlins

CENTRAL

Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Astros
Cardinals
Pirates

WEST

Padres
Rockies
Diamondbacks
Dodgers
Giants

DIVISIONAL SERIES

Padres over Phillies (3-1)
Mets over Brewers (3-2)

Blue Jays over Angels (3-1)
Red Sox over Indians (3-2)

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Mets over Padres (4-2)
Red Sox over Blue Jays (4-1)

WORLD SERIES

Mets over Red Sox (4-3)

It’s a dark day in Minnesota, but a bright future is on the horizon.

Tuesday’s trade of ace Johan Santana to the Mets for outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra is being viewed as drastically lopsided right now, but let’s not forget the Frank Viola, Chuck Knoblauch and AJ Pierzynski trades all looked one-sided at the time as well.

I’ve written plenty about Johan Santana this winter and I’ve spent way too much time dreaming up improbable scenarios where he re-signed with the Twins and led them to multiple World Series titles. The simple fact of the matter is that one pitcher cannot and will not win his team the World Series. A stellar ace is always a plus, but he can’t pitch every game, thus why the Twins--in the long run--are poised to benefit most from this trade.

Any time you gain four players with high ceilings and limited miles on the tires, it’s a positive thing. Here’s a look at what the Twins are getting out of the deal.

Carlos Gomez, OF: The most Major League-ready of the pack, Gomez retained rookie status in 2007 because of a broken bone in his left hand in July, which sidelined him for two months after he made his Major League debut in May. At 21, he was the youngest player in the National League at the time.

Before his call-up, Gomez had been somewhat overlooked when discussing Mets outfield prospects because of all the talk surrounding teenage sensation Fernando Martinez. But Gomez had cruised through the organization, skipping from Class A Hagerstown in 2005 to Double-A Binghamton in 2006, showing no apparent need for some time at Advanced A. He hit .281 with 41 steals in the Eastern League at age 20. He has all the tools you look for in a premier outfielder, with the speed for center and the arm for right. He was hitting .286 at Triple-A New Orleans with 17 steals before his spring promotion, and then batted .232 with 12 more swipes in 125 at-bats with the Mets before his injury.

The Twins' current outfield mix features Michael Cuddyer, newly acquired Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and veteran Craig Monroe battling for corner spots and Jason Pridie and Denard Span in the mix for the opening in centerfield. Look for Gomez to charge right into that pack to make a claim for one of the spots, most likely centerfield.

Philip Humber, RHP: With a strong spring, Humber could factor into the wide-open, but still competitive, battle for a Twins rotation spot. Drafted out of Rice University with the third-overall pick in 2004 and signed for a $3 million bonus, his pro career got off to a sluggish start as he posted a 4.99 ERA at Class A Advanced St. Lucie in 2005 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. He's yet to really come back in pre-surgery form, but his trademark curveball is still a plus pitch.

He spent most of '07 in New Orleans, where he was 11-9 with a 4.27 ERA in 25 starts, striking out 120 batters in 139 innings. He finished the summer with three games in New York, posting a 7.71 ERA in seven innings. He is no longer the untouchable can't-miss prospect he was when he signed in '04, but at 25 years old and now two years removed from his surgery, 2008 could be a big one for him.

Kevin Mulvey, RHP: Though his name is not generally mentioned in the same breath as the elite pitching prospects in the Mets system (Guerra, Humber and Mike Pelfrey), Mulvey is no slouch either. Drafted out of Villanova in the second round with the Mets' first pick in 2006, he appeared in just a handful of games that summer before earning the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2007. A Futures Game selection and Eastern League All-Star, the 22-year-old went 11-10 with a 3.32 ERA at Double-A Binghamton before finishing his season with one scoreless start at Triple-A New Orleans. Without one dominating pitch, he mixes four solid offerings highlighted by his slider with good control. He is likely to begin 2008 at Triple-A Rochester and a strong first half could keep his name on people's lips should the need for a starter arise.

Deolis Guerra, RHP: The 6-foot-5 Venezuelan prospect, who won't turn 19 until April, ranked just behind the apparently untouchable outfielder Fernando Martinez when it comes to Mets prospects, but he is likely to be the last to arrive in Minnesota. When he gets there, however, it should be for good.

Guerra made his pro debut in stellar style in 2006 when, at age 17, he posted a 2.20 ERA at Class A Hagerstown, limiting South Atlantic League hitters to a .208 average. In '07, still at 17, he was the Opening Day starter for Class A Advanced St. Lucie and pitched in the Futures Game as well. He battled some shoulder tendonitis, which limited his innings, but posted a 4.01 ERA in 90 innings in the Florida State League with a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s and a plus changeup, which ranked as the best in the Mets' system. He continues to work on improving his curveball and refining his overall game.

While he could start the season at Double-A New Britain, it is more likely that the Twins will opt to keep him back in warmer climate of Fort Myers, Fla., before sending him to the Eastern League later in the summer.

…at this point it’s too soon to tell who will ultimately get the better end of this trade. Twins fans have lost a lot of fan favorites this off-season and the loss of Santana only further amplifies the direction the team appears headed in the near future, however, the trade does leave the fans with hope that within a few years time the Twins could be contenders again.

Best of luck to Johan in New York, but as always…

GO TWINS!!

The 2007 Winter Meetings are here and believe it or not—and based on all my ranting, it may be hard to believe—there are people other than Johan Santana on the trade market. So I’m going to use this bloggity-blog to focus on some teams that are expected to be—or at least should be—very active at the Winter Meetings.

—The Los Angeles Dodgers—

The Dodgers have been sitting on their hands most of this off-season since signing Joe Torre to man the helm. They have numerous weaknesses to address, but as has become status quo, they simply aren’t addressing any of them. They are in talks with the Marlins for third-baseman/left-fielder/future first-baseman/future DH/future pie-eating champion Miguel Cabrera, but all of those trade talks seem to have cooled immensely in recent weeks.

With the team still in need of a serious power threat, all eyes may be on free-agent centerfield Andruw Jones this week. Jones is coming off the worst season of his career -- .222 average, 26 homers, 96 RBIs. Even with those numbers, Jones would immediately become the most potent proven bat in the Dodgers lineup. He could command a very large, long-term deal and given the Dodgers desperate need for not only a defensive upgrade in centerfield, but some serious power in the line-up, he may be worth every penny—to the Dodgers that is.

The Dodgers, initially thought to be involved in the Santana talks, are also keeping an eye on the availability of solid pitching options. Randy Wolf—one of the team’s best starters before injury shut him down in July—recently signed with the rival San Diego Padres, Jason Schmidt is a bit of a question mark after going under the knife last season. Clayton Kershaw—one of the team’s top bargaining chips at the trade table—may or may  not be ready for the show next season. That leaves a rotation Derrek Lowe, Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley and Esteban Loaiza. Needless to say, adding another starter might not be such a bad idea.

The free agent class of pitcher is at best, uninspiring, but Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva, slotted in the five-hole in the rotation could be highly-effective. Also available is a glut of pitchers returning from injury such as Freddy Garcia, Matt Clement and 2005 Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon. All come with the high risk, high reward tag attached.

—The New York Mets—

The Mets are in dire need of a front-line starter. A stopper, if you will. They need someone whose name on the lineup means a day off for the bullpen and the end of a losing streak. Right now they don’t have it. In fact, after losing Tom Glavine back to the division-rival Atlanta Braves they now have even less depth. The opening day rotation right now looks like Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, Oliver Perez, John Maine and either Philip Humber or Mike Pelfrey. Needless to say, that rotation doesn’t exactly intimidate the rest of the NL East…or most city league softball teams.

General Manager Omar Minaya will clearly be on the prowl to add a starter (or two) at the Winter Meetings and given the poor showings of Pelfrey and Humber in their major league debuts last season, may be willing to dangle both of them in trade talks. He may, however, have lost himself a major bargaining chip when he jettisoned mercurial outfielder and long-time “can’t miss” prospect Lastings Milledge to the Nationals for two-second tier complimentary parts in catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church.

In essence the Mets have lost out in the Santana race, due to a lack of suitable prospects. Although once Santana has been moved names like Erik Bedard, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and Dontrelle Willis could all become available on the trade market. As well teams such as the Giants, Angels and Dodgers could be willing to move one of their starters for the right price.

Any package the Mets would offer would have to include one of their young outfielder Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez and probably one of the top three pitching prospects in either Pelfrey, Humber or Kevin Mulvey. However, one thing the team seems to be overlooking is how badly some of these teams out west are in need of slugger; a need that could be filled by trading Carlos Delgado and a prospect. The Angels could send back Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders. The Giants could be willing to part with Tim Lincecum. The Dodgers, although relatively light on pitching themselves, may be willing to ship out Billingsley and/or Kershaw if given the right return from the Mets.

—The Milwaukee Brewers—

I know, I know…there hasn’t been much talk of movement on the part of the Brew-Crew, but hear me out. The team is in dire need of a makeover for the backend of the bullpen given the exoduses of Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink. The thought of giving Derrick Turnbow the reigns as the full-time closer again, is a little scary. However, so is gambling on someone such as free-agent Eric Gagne to return to form following his implosion in Boston.

In addition, the team may want to start thinking about Ben Sheets’ future with the club. He is a free-agent after the 2008 season and given the ridiculous inflation of prices for free-agent pitchers, he might be more valuable in a trade once the Santana/Haren/Bedard-hoopla has died down. If not for the numerous injuries that have hampered the fireballer’s career thus far, he could be the most attractive option on the market.

If the Brewers ever though about trading Sheets, this off-season is the time to act. He could command a solid return from any of a number of clubs who miss out on Santana and he wouldn’t come at nearly as steep a price to re-sign. At the same time, the rotation behind Sheets looks to be pretty solid, albeit quite young in most respects. The Brewers are a team on the cusp of perennial contention and flipping Sheet this offseason, say to the Mets for Heilman and one or two of their prospects could turn out to be a huge return.

My advice, don’t count the Brewers out as players at the Winter Meetings.

—The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim—

The Angels already fired their first salvo of the off-season when they traded away Gold Glover shortstop Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox for start Jon Garland. Then in the wee-hours of the morning on Thanksgiving, the Halos snared Torii Hunter with a 5-year/$90 million deal.

With those moves already done, the Angels next mission is to acquire a slugger to stick behind Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup. The most attractive options to the Angels appear to be a pair of dudes named Miguel; those Miguels being Cabrera and Tejada respectively.

Cabrera—as mentioned in the Dodgers portion—is the slugging third-sacker for the Florida Marlins and will probably require a larger return from whichever club he is moved to than would Tejada, the current shortstop for the Orioles. Reports suggest that the Orioles’ president of baseball operations, Andy McPhail, is so unhappy with the product on the field that he may be willing to ship out his bigger names, such as Tejada, Melvin Mora, Brian Roberts, Ramon Hernandez and even ace Erik Bedard, for a lower cost of big-league talent and more prospects.

If the Angels acquire either Miguel, expect him to be entrenched at the thirdbase and in the four hole, behind Guerrero in the lineup. Rumor currently has the Marlins asking for way too much from the Angels. If that’s the case Tejada becomes the top option and the club can contemplate diving into the market for one of the top pitchers that may be available via trade.

Either way, don’t expect the Angels to sit idly by with the moves they’ve already made. New GM Tony Reagins has proven to be very proactive and is definitely looking to make the Angels a favorite in the 2008…thus far, he’s on the right path.

—The New York Yankees—

After collapsing in the first-round of the playoffs and with the younger Steinbrenners now at the helm, the Yankees appear very, very motivated to improve their club for next season. The team has already been very active bringing back key members of the 2007 squad including: Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte.

On top of that the club has been in hot-pursuit of Twins’ ace Johan Santana and whether they win the Santana Sweepstakes or not, the Yankees still would have to consider the possibility of making a move if Haren or Bedard were to become available.

Depending on the outcome of the Santana-deal, the Yankees may also be in the market to acquire a new centerfielder if Melky Cabrera is traded. Options include free-agents such as Aaron Rowand and Andruw Jones, both of whom would be great additions defensively, but will probably require more money and more of a long-term commitment than the team is willing to give. That makes second-tier free agents such as Mike Cameron and Corey Patterson all the more attractive as short-term solutions. At this point Johnny Damon shouldn’t even be considered as a full-time centerfielder.

Other options on the trade market could include Ken Griffey Jr. from the Reds. He is entering the final season of his contract and has long talked about a desire to win a World Series. The Yankees offer that opportunity year-in-and-year-out and Griffey’s sweet swing would look really nice with that short porch in right field. If the team was merely looking for a short-term replacement, the Red Sox Coco Crisp (again, based on the outcome of the Santana trade) may or may not be available. Although I can’t foresee a trade being worked out between these two clubs.

The Yankees may or may not be ballsy enough to go ahead and inquire about the Braves’ Mark Texeira. Tex is a free agent after the 2008 season and isn’t expected to sign an extension. If the Yankees could pull the right strings, they may be able to trade for and then sign the switch-hitting slugger (who can also play some defense); a move which would substantially bolster the Yanks offense and would set up a pretty solid combo of A-Rod and Tex at the heart of the Yankees lineup.

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All-in-all this year’s Winter Meetings appear to be ripe for trades as opposed to teams simply throwing their money at free-agents as has been the case in recent years. Expect a lot of rumors, a lot of big stories and when it’s all said and done…expect a very exciting season in 2008, with lots of big names in new homes.

I’ve read some very interesting blogs and theories regarding the Twins potential trade of Johan Santana and some completely ludicrous ones as well. Only five teams–the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Dodgers and Angels--can realistically afford to sign Santana long-term…which is something Santana has made clear would be a necessity for him to agree to a trade.

As such, I’ve taken my stab at determining what it will take for one of the “Big Five” to wrangle arguably the best pitcher in the game. The teams are listed in the order of whom I feel has the best shot of acquiring his services…

RED SOX:

In my mind the Sox probably have the best shot given the depth of their farm system and their desire to keep him from joining the Yankees. Any package with the Red Sox would begin with Clay Bucholz as he is deemed vastly superior to Jon Lester. However, if the Twins prefer Jacoby Ellsbury over Coco Crisp, they’d probably have to settle for Lester; I foresee those four balancing one another out…Ellsbury and Lester or Bucholz and Crisp. That would be the center-piece of the return, but the Twins would probably look to add another bat and/or bullpen help as well. In that regard, I think that a proven spot-start and reliever like Julian Tavarez could be in the mix straight-up middle inning men like Manny Delcarmen or Craig Hansen. As far as bats are concerned I’d expect to see Jed Lowrie or Brandon Moss thrown into the mix.

YANKEES:

The Yankees are probably next in line because they offer a plethora of big-league ready starters to send back in return as well. The Yankees could give up less talent overall by sending Chien-Ming Wang and Melky Cabrera straight up. However, if the team is looking to hang onto Wang, they’ll probably have to send at least one of the young guns with Phillip Hughes being the front-runner with Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy falling in behind. This would still probably cost them Melky Cabrera and/or Robinson Cano and a solid minor league arm such as Humberto Sanchez.

DODGERS:

The Dodgers would probably have to offer roughly the same package they’ve got on the table for Miguel Cabrera if they strike out on acquiring his services. That would include the likes of Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche or James Loney and either Johnathon Broxton or Chad Billingsley. However, one has to question whether or not the Dodgers are close enough to contend with the squad they have to afford giving up such a large portion of their top prospects.

METS:

The Mets are in an unfortunate place as they are in dire need of pitching and, as such, don’t have much they could afford to send back to the Twins. The best bet to snag Santana would probably cost the Mets Mike Pelfrey and Phil Humber…perhaps even both depending on what set of young outfielders the Mets are willing to give up. Any two of Fernando Martinez, Carlos Gomez or Lastings Milledge would net a solid return. Other names that could be in the mix for the Mets to make this work are Oliver Perez, Aaron Heilman and – if the rumors are true – potentially even Jose Reyes.

ANGELS:

The Angels—currently the front-runners for Miguel Cabrera—are probably not in the mix as much as any of the aforementioned teams due to their depth of young arms and lack of offensive firepower. If the team does acquire Cabrera, one would assume they’ll no longer have the prospects necessary to net Santana. Although if they strike out (pun intended) in pursuit of Cabrera expect them to jump into the mix offering roughly the same set of players which includes as a base outfielder Reggie Willits and second baseman Howie Kendrick. After that the Twins would probably want to acquire another bat such as OF/DH Juan Rivera and/or 3B/SS Brandon Wood…although Wood may be untouchable given the recent trade of Orlando Cabrera. On the pitching front the Twins could command any of the following: Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders or class AA right-hander Nick Adenhart.