David Ortiz hit the DL this week with a tear in the sheath that surrounds the tendon in his left wrist and although Big Papi thinks he can be back in a month, many think that the injury won’t heal in that time and may require season-ending surgery. If that is in fact the case, I can't help but think that the Red Sox will be looking to their crimson brothers-in-arms, the Cincinnati Reds for an offensive boost.
Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. both figure to be available and both could help the Sox in multiple ways.
Griffey and Dunn are both left-handed hitters who could provide solid numbers in the three-hole for the Red Sox. Both have significant power. Both have the ability to play the corners at Fenway and/or DH-alternatively with Manny Ramirez.
But most importantly...Cincy is most-likely looking to move both of them in order to save some serious cash and gain more prospects for the team’s on-going youth movement.
Let’s take a look at the Sox options:
Ken Griffey Jr.
In Griffey, the Sox would essential acquire a rent-a-player for the season, but if they are successful, perhaps Griffey would want to stay longer and make another championship run...something he isn't likely to do if he returns to Seattle as most people are predicting he will. Although Griffey isn't have an overly impressive year at the plate thus far, a move to a contending team could revitalize him and the option to play DH would definitely save on the wear and tear as the season progresses. The Red Sox also have to realize that they would be acquiring one of the best players of this era--albeit on the downside of his career--and someone who would seemingly fit in very well with the Boston clubhouse.
Adam Dunn
In Dunn, the Sox would receive a powerful 28-year-old who appears to just be entering his prime and has raked to the tune of 40 homers (or better) for each of the last four years and is on pace to do it again in 2008. Dunn would be a wise signing if the Sox decided not to exercise Manny's option after 2008, as he could play the small left field at Fenway just as admirably as Manny and put up similar offensive numbers. However, with the uncertainty surrounding Big Papi's injury and his history of wrist-injuries, perhaps it'd be in the Sox best interest to sign Dunn and Ramirez and "worst-case scenario", David Ortiz comes back healthy and mashing and the Sox find that they have an overload of offensive talent. What a sad situation that would be for Sox, huh?!
What would it take to land Griffey or Dunn?
To get Griffey it would probably cost the Sox at least one solid pitching prospect (not named Masterson) most-likely Charlie Zink or Craig Hansen. The Reds would probably also want to land an outfielder in the deal such as Jeff Bailey or Chris Carter.
It may cost the Sox a little more to land Dunn, due to his age and current value to the Reds line-up, it might take Justin Masterson and some combination of Jed Lowrie, Brandon Moss, Zink, Bailey or Carter. Although given the proven skills of both Masterson and Lowrie the Sox may be able to get away with one of those two and a lower level prospect.
Final Analysis
Either way the trade makes sense for both sides. Ortiz's injury is a serious one and even if he is able to come back this season, there is a good chance he will be hampered by the injury all year, and it figures to sap his power and thus damages his on-base abilities as pitchers would be less-inclined to pitch around him. This gives the Sox a definite back-up plan and an option in the corners to help spell Manny and keep him from having another of his yearly late season "injuries."
It benefits the Reds because, even with the youth-movement in full swing, they don't appear set to contend in 2008. If the team doesn't choose to sign Dunn long-term (which would be a mistake) then he and Griffey both should be moved before walking away and leaving the team with nothing to show for it. The Reds can gain some high-ceiling prospects from the Red Sox and continue to keep their farm system stocked and keep the infusion of young talent coming, that way the team isn't forced to rely on the likes of Corey Patterson beyond the 2008 season.
Thoughts? Opinions? Blatant insults regarding my horrible use of ellipses? Etc…
Every year, I enjoy spending the weekend before baseball starts stowed away on my couch feverishly pounding away at my laptop to write up my omniscient pre-season picks. This year, however, with the season beginning mid-week half-a-world away and then pausing for a few days and then restarting, with a one-day match-up solely intended to pimp the Nationals new stadium, I found myself having a hard time wrapping my mind around the fact that the season was—in fact—beginning.
It grew even harder to believe when I was trudging around Minneapolis’ snow-filled streets in a blizzard on my way to the Metrodome to watch the Twins’ home opener. I mean seriously…a blizzard…on Opening Day?! Can’t wait until that new open-air stadium opens up in Minneapolis!!
Either way, after dropping close to $70 on overpriced Dome Dogs, nachos and warm beer…there is now no doubt that baseball season is upon us. With nearly a week of exhilarating play already under our belts, it’s about time I get my butt in gear and hammer out my belated pre-season picks.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
CY YOUNG
My Pick – Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays
Doc Halladay might not be the strikeout machine he once was, but he is still a stud on the hill and the unquestioned ace for one of the best rotations in all of baseball. As is often the case for Halladay, health will be the major concern heading into this season. With other potential front-runners for the AL Cy Young such as Scott Kazmir, John Lackey and Josh Beckett all spending time on the DL early in the season, Halladay needs to remain healthy himself to distance himself from the pack.
Halladay’s 2008 Line: 19 W – 3.48 ERA – 156 K
In the Mix: Erik Bedard – Seattle Mariners & CC Sabathia – Cleveland Indiants Dark Horse: Javier Vazquez – Chicago White Sox Really Dark Horse: Rich Harden – Oakland Athletics
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
My Pick – Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays
I realize Longoria is the fashionable pick—but there’s a reason he’s the fashionable pick—the dude can flat-out rake. In Spring Training he hit .262 with three home runs and ten runs batted in. Throw in his .407 on-base percentage and his .595 slugging percentage and there’s no doubt why the rest of the roster was begging the Rays management to insert Longoria into the Opening Day lineup. Unfortunately, fiscal rationale took over and the Rays sent Longoria back to Triple A where he’ll wait until May for his call-up, ala Ryan Braun last season, at which point one can expect Longoria will be entrenched at third base for a long, long time.
Longoria’s 2008 Line: .280 – 21 HR – 89 RBI
In the Mix: Joba Chamberlain – New York Yankees & Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox Dark Horse: Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins Really Dark Horse: Alexei Ramirez – Chicago White Sox
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
My Pick – Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees
Honestly, given the way A-Rod absolutely obliterated everything in his path last season, it’s really hard to knock the guy. Plus, who was even close to touching A-Rod for overall stats last year? Who’s that you say? No one. Sure his numbers have historically dipped off following his MVP seasons, but let’s take note that we’re talking about a guy who has had multiple MVP seasons for this statement can be made. How many multi-time MVPs are still hanging out in big league locker-rooms? I bet you can count them all on one hand. Things could always change as the season progresses, but hands down A-Rod is still the best player in the game today and now that he has the whole “biggest contract in the history of history” thing taken care of…now he wants a ring, expect an even more focused A-Rod in 2008 and beyond.
Rodriguez’s 2008 Line: .317 – 53 HR – 121 RBI
In the Mix: David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox & Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers Dark Horse: Vladimir Guerrero – Los Angeles Angels Really Dark Horse: Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers
NATIONAL LEAGUE
CY YOUNG
My Pick – Johan Santana – New York Mets
Let’s be honest, I’d be a fool not to pick Santana. Although, I’d also be an even bigger fool if I tried to act like the NL wasn’t full of quality pitching with the likes of Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Chris Young, etc…etc…etc…
However, of all those names, Santana is still the best of the bunch. Anyone who looks at the numbers Santana put up in Minnesota would have to expect an increase with a move to the lighter line-ups of the NL and the lack of a designated hitter. Santana has always been a pitching machine, but now he’s got long-term security, a strong line-up behind him and most importantly he has the best shot to win a ring he’s had in his entire career, be afraid National League…be very afraid.
Santana’s 2008 Line: 23 W – 2.87 ERA – 234 K
In the Mix: Jake Peavy – San Diego Padres & Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks Dark Horse: Roy Oswalt – Houston Astros Really Dark Horse: Pedro Martinez – New York Mets
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
My Pick – Johnny Cueto – Cincinnati Reds
Sure, by the time I’ve written this I’ve already had the advantage of watching him humiliate the Diamondbacks, but anyone who has been following Cueto’s already impressive career knows that he is for real. In just 348 minor league innings Cueto struck out 357 batters and notched a 3.28 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. For those of you who aren’t stat junkies, let me break that down so you’ll get what I’m saying…CUETO IS AWESOME!!! Yeah, I think that sums it up. Throw in the fact that he’s slotted into the third-spot in the rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and just keep looking better…the only potential threat to Cueto’s success is the man in the dugout, Dusty Baker. With young arms Edison Volquez and Homer Bailey in addition to Cueto all in the fold for the Reds, many are nervous that Baker will wear them out as he is believed to have done with Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Here’s to hoping that Cueto, Volquez and Bailey can all avoid the wrath of Dusty the Destroyer.
Cueto’s 2008 Line: 13 W – 3.48 ERA – 178K
In the Mix: Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds & Geovany Soto – Chicago Cubs Dark Horse: Kosuke Fukudome – Chicago Cubs Really Dark Horse: Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
My Pick – Matt Holliday – Colorado Rockies
Last year should have been Holliday’s year, no doubt about it. Sure Jimmy Rollins had a great season, but much like Ryan Howard the year before, he wasn’t the Most Valuable Player in the National League. This year Holliday figures to leave no doubt that the award belongs on his mantle. He just turned 28 in January and is gaining not only more power as he gets older, but also a better eye at the dish. With the incentive of playing for a long-term deal also in the mix and a chance to return to the World Series, Holliday has nothing but motivation heading into the 2008 campaign and it’s a well-known fact that when great players get motivated, they get down-right scary. Expect Holliday to put up some scary numbers in 2008.
Holliday’s 2008 Line: .331 – 41 HR – 138 RBI
In the Mix: Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals & David Wright – New York Mets Dark Horse: Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers Really Dark Horse: Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals
AMERICAN LEAGUE
EAST
Red Sox Blue Jays - WC Yankees Rays Orioles
CENTRAL
Indians Twins Tigers Royals White Sox
WEST
Angels Mariners Rangers Athletics
NATIONAL LEAGUE
EAST
Mets Phillies - WC Braves Nationals Marlins
CENTRAL
Brewers Cubs Reds Astros Cardinals Pirates
WEST
Padres Rockies Diamondbacks Dodgers Giants
DIVISIONAL SERIES
Padres over Phillies (3-1) Mets over Brewers (3-2)
Blue Jays over Angels (3-1) Red Sox over Indians (3-2)
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Mets over Padres (4-2) Red Sox over Blue Jays (4-1)
I am a 24-year-old aspiring baseball writer. I grew up to stories of Willie Mays, the Miracle Mets and the Bronx Zoo from my father. Although my playing days never amounted to much, baseball has always remained my passion. I recently moved to Boston from the midwest and I am enjoying the hype and hysteria of living at the heart of Red Sox Nation. As you can tell from my avatar the Twins are my team, a result of being born and raised in Iowa and attending college in Minnesota. If you're ever in the mood to talk baseball, or any sport for that matter, you can drop me a line or leave a comment on my blog.
David Ortiz hit the DL this week with a tear in the sheath that surrounds the tendon in his left wrist and although Big Papi thinks he can be back in a month, many think that the injury won’t heal in that time and may require season-ending surgery. If that is in fact the case, I can't help but think that the Red Sox will be looking to their crimson brothers-in-arms, the Cincinnati Reds for an offensive boost. 
In Griffey, the Sox would essential acquire a rent-a-player for the season, but if they are successful, perhaps Griffey would want to stay longer and make another championship run...something he isn't likely to do if he returns to Seattle as most people are predicting he will. Although Griffey isn't have an overly impressive year at the plate thus far, a move to a contending team could revitalize him and the option to play DH would definitely save on the wear and tear as the season progresses. The Red Sox also have to realize that they would be acquiring one of the best players of this era--albeit on the downside of his career--and someone who would seemingly fit in very well with the Boston clubhouse. 
In Dunn, the Sox would receive a powerful 28-year-old who appears to just be entering his prime and has raked to the tune of 40 homers (or better) for each of the last four years and is on pace to do it again in 2008. Dunn would be a wise signing if the Sox decided not to exercise Manny's option after 2008, as he could play the small left field at Fenway just as admirably as Manny and put up similar offensive numbers. However, with the uncertainty surrounding Big Papi's injury and his history of wrist-injuries, perhaps it'd be in the Sox best interest to sign Dunn and Ramirez and "worst-case scenario", David Ortiz comes back healthy and mashing and the Sox find that they have an overload of offensive talent. What a sad situation that would be for Sox, huh?! 
Doc Halladay might not be the strikeout machine he once was, but he is still a stud on the hill and the unquestioned ace for one of the best rotations in all of baseball. As is often the case for Halladay, health will be the major concern heading into this season. With other potential front-runners for the AL Cy Young such as Scott Kazmir, John Lackey and Josh Beckett all spending time on the DL early in the season, Halladay needs to remain healthy himself to distance himself from the pack. 
Honestly, given the way A-Rod absolutely obliterated everything in his path last season, it’s really hard to knock the guy. Plus, who was even close to touching A-Rod for overall stats last year? Who’s that you say? No one. Sure his numbers have historically dipped off following his MVP seasons, but let’s take note that we’re talking about a guy who has had multiple MVP seasons for this statement can be made. How many multi-time MVPs are still hanging out in big league locker-rooms? I bet you can count them all on one hand. Things could always change as the season progresses, but hands down A-Rod is still the best player in the game today and now that he has the whole “biggest contract in the history of history” thing taken care of…now he wants a ring, expect an even more focused A-Rod in 2008 and beyond.
Sure, by the time I’ve written this I’ve already had the advantage of watching him humiliate the Diamondbacks, but anyone who has been following Cueto’s already impressive career knows that he is for real. In just 348 minor league innings Cueto struck out 357 batters and notched a 3.28 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. For those of you who aren’t stat junkies, let me break that down so you’ll get what I’m saying…CUETO IS AWESOME!!! Yeah, I think that sums it up. Throw in the fact that he’s slotted into the third-spot in the rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and just keep looking better…the only potential threat to Cueto’s success is the man in the dugout, Dusty Baker. With young arms Edison Volquez and Homer Bailey in addition to Cueto all in the fold for the Reds, many are nervous that Baker will wear them out as he is believed to have done with Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Here’s to hoping that Cueto, Volquez and Bailey can all avoid the wrath of Dusty the Destroyer.
